Selecting a VP and When To Announce It
58:20 Share

Hi, I'm David Plouffe. And I'm Kellyanne Conway. And you're listening to the Campaign Managers Podcast. Right here on Podcast One. Welcome to the Campaign Managers Podcast with me, David Plouffe. And me, Kellyanne Conway. So Kellyanne, let's talk VP selection. We're talking early June. Donald Trump will have to announce his running mate sometime in the next six, six and a half weeks.

I want to start now. You and I have both led these processes. We've worked with vice presidents in the White House. So I want to go deep on all of this. But you wrote a piece in The New York Times, I believe, back in February to kind of outline your thoughts about how Donald Trump would approach this process. And I just love to hear, like, has anything changed in your mind? I thought how you ended it was interesting, which is, hey, it's Donald Trump. So

He has the capacity to surprise us, basically. And like all these people do, you know, this is a very personal process led by the principal. But kind of what are your thoughts now as we get closer to this decision point? You capture the process and the thinking very well, David. And you're right. I know that you were intimately integrated into the process for the selection of then Senator Joe Biden as the running mate for Barack Obama in 2008. I was very involved in the selection of Mike Pence, governor at the time of Indiana President

and Donald Trump in 2016. However, I think both of us would acknowledge that this ends up being a decision that is very personal and almost a complete call by the principal himself, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Why? Because it is truly your running mate. And so many people dismiss it as unimportant or relevant. Nobody votes for the VP. It doesn't matter. I disagree. It does matter.

And it matters because it can help you augment your lead or your reach in some of these 19 to 22 counties that will decide the next president or some of the swing states that house those counties. And then I think some of the demographic groups, I think these VP selections help you

to both mitigate and eliminate some of the concerns that folks have about the principal at the top of the ticket, and then also to show that the first big decision that this party nominee made as the president-in-waiting was choosing this individual to run on the ticket.

To be a constitutionally elected vice president in the United States is not just, hey, it's a surrogate or in our case, a campaign manager or even a cabinet secretary. It's the vice president.

I think that more importantly than who is what in the selection process, what is the job description? I was very much about this in 2016, where Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie, two close personal friends of mine, were in the top running for Donald Trump's vice presidential selection. And he chose Mike Pence. And that was definitely my choice. I'm the world's worst matchmaker, worst Yanta candidate.

But I'm very happy to have had a little bit of a hand in that. Again, it was Donald Trump's decision completely. It'll be his decision completely this time. But I think the job description is incredibly important. In 2016, I believe that Hillary Clinton's blue wall was very real. I believe she started out with 264 electoral votes. You need 270 to win. That was a scary keep you up at night fact and reality.

And taking someone from the Rust Belt and Midwest who had the credibility there, who had the governance there, who would be able to help us dip into states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, which had been elusive to Republican presidential candidates for decades.

would be incredibly helpful. And Pence had been in Washington for 12 years, but never became Washington. He was on the Foreign Affairs Committee for six years, had risen up to the number three in Republican leadership.

When John Boehner was speaker and he was the head of the conference, which really is the main communicator for the party and out there every day representing the party on television and print, sometimes in, quote, hostile territory for Republicans. So it just made a lot of sense. And he also helped, I think Mike Pence helped, to mollify and assure many of the evangelical Christians who were skeptical about

about Donald Trump, who they only knew as a businessman or on page six in the New York Post or as a TV star on The Apprentice.

What would he actually do on school choice or abortion or Israel? A big issue to evangelical Christians. And then I think there is a whole set of, let's say, the Federalist Society judicial watcher set that also was very curious to see who Donald Trump would pick in 2016. Since we already had one Supreme Court vacancy, Antonin Scalia, the justice, had passed away the year before.

So there's so much going on in the selection of Pence. Here's what I think presidents should do when they're selecting their VP. They should have three major criteria. The first is someone who's going to help me win. Two, someone who will help me govern. Three, someone who's ready on day one. And Trump has this opportunity in the next month or two

to choose someone who satisfies all three criteria. Help me win, help me govern, ready on day one. My other major point about presidential nominees choosing a vice presidential running mate if passed is prologue David Plouffe.

is you want to surprise people, but not shock them. Dan Quayle was a big shock. Sarah Palin was a big shock. I think for some people, Joe Biden was a shock, but I understand why Senator Obama did that as the nominee. And I think that's important too. So I have 15 names in the New York Times op-ed, but the big takeaway in that piece that I stand by now is that

President Trump could pick a woman. It'd be nice if he did or could find somebody who was suitable to be the running mate at this point in time and satisfy those criteria. But I'm saying as a woman, often the only woman in the room with him, I would say he doesn't need to pick a woman. I think he should lean toward picking a person of color. And for that, that's Marco Rubio, possibly Byron Donalds. Although if President Trump picks Marco Rubio as his running mate, we already know how to resolve the residency question.

But if Governor DeSantis wants to appoint Byron Donnells to that seat, if he has that ability to do that, then that's a major twofer. People still have Ben Carson on the shortlist. The idea there is, I think, not unlike Joe Biden and not unlike Dick Cheney for George W. Bush, which is

an older sort of statesman-like person who people will say, that's not somebody who's going to compete with you every single day for your job. That someone is going to help support your agenda. Maybe run for president in the future, but not as hungry and as thirsty to do so as maybe people in their 30s and 40s. Right. We're also on the list. The one person I'd add that wasn't on my list is

is Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee. I think he's on the long short list. He was a U.S. ambassador to Japan. He's a United States Senator. He started the Boston Consulting Group. He's great on TV. For Donald Trump, it's very important that you're good on TV also. Yeah. Well, I, you know, in terms of this being a personal decision, I mean, I remember back in 08,

David Oxrod and I flew around the country to meet the last, our final three finalists, which are then Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia, and Senator Joe Biden. And I remember we debriefed with him that night. I think it was by phone because he was campaigning somewhere.

And I remember him saying like, okay, what'd you guys think? And he was like, to be clear, I'll listen to what you have to say, but I got to live with this decision. If I lose for the next four months, if I win for four, eight years. So I'm interested in what you have to say, but only to a degree. It is a very personal, right? I mean, because I think the mistake sometimes people make, and I'm not saying presidents, although I think McCain made a big mistake with Palin. You know, there's a sense out there amongst presidents.

People follow politics. There's some like blockbuster choice and that's going to be amazing. But like the truth is you want to be as happy with the choice a month after you make it and six years after you make it is the day you make it right. And to your point, sometimes the surprise is something like Sarah Palin for the first two weeks of her pick back in 08 was seen to be a blockbuster brilliant choice. Like people thought it changed the race.

And ultimately, McCain paid a price for that. People weren't voting in Sarah Palin. They were voting as John McCain because they thought it showed a lack of judgment. But it is such a personal choice. And I do wonder with Donald Trump, you know him so well. You mentioned three criteria, which I agree with. And I would maybe this is quaint.

I would say that the most important thing is probably the second one you mentioned, right? Which is somebody who can help you govern, right? Obviously you want to pick somebody who's good politically, but because generally, historically, those people on game changers, they can help. It's got to be something like wake up every day. They're in the Oval Office with you. You're not rolling your eyes at them. You get good advice. You can give them tasks, right?

But do you think Trump, because clearly he was very upset by Mike Pence not following through on his desires, how much is loyalty going to be part of what he looks for? I'm just curious your standpoint, because obviously you thought as much as I'm sure it was heartbreaking that Joe Biden won that election, whatever Donald Trump said. So how important is that loyalty going to be? Because it's interesting when I went through this with Obama,

The one thing I would say is what, and I found this to be super hard. And I talked to, as I'm sure you did many people who did this previously, right? Whoever you pick, unless they're like totally from out of the blue,

They've won races, they've run races. And it's like, actually, it's not your deal, man. Like, this is our message. We're going to do your schedule for you. You know, we're happy to listen to your ideas, but you are kind of off Broadway a little bit. So that was one thing we certainly had to test, which is, can you kind of, in a way, subjugate yourself to the mission here? You're coming in late.

But that's different than whether you think, you know, former President Trump will want to talk about, OK, when the chips really are at the end of the table there, how loyal are you going to be to me? A few things there. Mike Pence was a an excellent running mate and vice president, and they were a great team on until the end. And that's just very clear. And anybody trying to wash away the.

Nearly four years, they worked very well together, is not paying attention to the unbelievable economy, had the energy independence, taking out Qasem Soleimani and al-Baghdadi. Those are big deals, particularly Soleimani. Other presidents could have done it. Nobody did. Pence was great. And it wasn't. So on this question of loyalty and even hear the word fealty, it's in my very experienced view, considered view about President Trump.

It is not put in the proper context. It is not loyalty to him. It is loyalty to his agenda because that's how you're getting elected.

And when he says America first agenda, who who will help him govern? That means who's going to help him get us out of this energy dependence and back to energy independence. We currently have an administration that's been very hostile to fossil fuels, even as they fly around and burn off a lot of them. They've been, you know, Biden killed the Keystone pipeline jobs.

day one or week one of his presidency. So I think somebody is going to work with alacrity and agility to help President Trump do a couple of big things almost immediately through executive order, but also through legislation.

And that will also mean things abroad and things domestically at home. So it's really loyalty to the agenda. That's what's most important. Loyalty to him, that went out the door when he put people like Ben Carson and Rick Perry in his cabinet, Secretary of

Housing and Urban Development and Secretary of Energy respectively, even though they ran against him for president in 2016, worked very closely and still does with Rand Paul, with Ted Cruz, with Marco Rubio, three senators who ran against him, Chris Christie, one of his BFFs, first guy to drop out and endorse him and a constant presence, a reliable ally when we were in the White House, again, almost for four years.

Scott Walker, same thing. So it's not loyalty to an individual. It's loyalty to the agenda that that individual is pushing forward. And I think that's most important. And look, you mentioned Sarah Palin. I think it's an excellent example. John McCain was losing badly to Senator Obama in most of the polls in 2008. And I believe those polls and I said it routinely on television and elsewhere.

And then he picked Sarah Palin for the same reason Bob Dole picked Jack Kemp in 1996. A little bit of the reason that Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan in 2012. But mainly Dole picking Kemp in 96 and McCain picking Palin in 2008 are the best examples I have of this, which is when the top of the ticket

engender some misgivings among the rank and file conservatives and the delegates to the convention. And they feel like, I don't know if I can trust you as a conservative fairly or unfairly. You've been a big spender or you said you're going to do this or John McCain, you pride yourself on saying you're a little bit more moderate, a little bit. So as I said to Trump in 2016, also like,

They needed to engender excitement among the grassroots. And they did. I remember being in San Diego on behalf of CNN. I was a CNN political analyst in 1996 when being paid to go on TV was hardly heard of. And I remember when Dole picked Kemp.

who I had worked for on Capitol Hill in his last term years before, people were automatically just immediately excited. As you said, John McCain picked Sarah Palin. Some of the country says, what's going on? Who is that? Other people are like, this is amazing. Wow. This will be great.

And that changed over time. But when you go back and you say, what could they have done going into their convention to generate that excitement? Their VP selections helped it. I said to Jared Kushner in May of 2016 in a different meeting, we were meeting about something else. And then he switched over to VP quickly. And I wrote about this in my book, Here's the Deal. And Donald Trump was outside the atrium, outside the glass talking to people about

And I said, Jared, they did that to generate excitement. I pointed to Trump. I said, we have all the excitement we need. We don't need any more excitement. We need sort of steady leadership, somebody who's at sea level personality wise or who's engaging. And listen, Mike Pence had had his own radio show. He was on TV every other day as conference chairman, radio before he was in Congress. And I think that's important to Trump this time, too.

Who can actually help carry the message? Who can break through what I call the noise, the cacophony, or the silence if it happens to be an issue like trade or illegal immigration, which Donald Trump elevated when they were mired in single digits in the polls, if at all? Who's going to do that this time? But I will say this in terms of loyalty. I think he's put that aside when you take Donald Trump's recent words about who's on his short list. He mentioned people like Elise Stefanik.

who, you know, wasn't always...

that charitable to him in what she said. She's great now. She has been for a long time. He's got J.D. Vance, freshman senator of Ohio on his list, who's I think not even 40 yet or barely 40, and who voted for Evan McMullin in 2016. So this whole idea that Trump only has this personal loyalty test, that comes from his haters and the folks who have no interest, David, in even learning about Trump or the Trump voter or the Trump agenda. So I think it's... And look, the other consideration here is

Since we have a lot of insiders listening to our podcast, the other consideration here is if you are picking somebody from the Senate, who replaces them? Obviously, Tim Scott's on the short list. I talked about people of color. Obviously, Scott and Rubio would top the list of that. Byron Donalds, perhaps maybe Ben Carson. But who would replace them if it's the United States Senate? And that's an important question, because guess what? The Democrats won two Senate seats in Georgia.

And they won a Senate seat in Alabama for a short time. So these, you know, picking somebody from South Carolina or Tennessee and Bill Hagerty or Marsha Blackburn, or obviously Tim Scott in South Carolina or

Marco Rubio in Florida. Got to be really careful about who replaces him. Even J.D. Vance going from Ohio. If Mike DeWine, the governor there, were to appoint Matt Dolan to the J.D. Vance seat while Bernie Moran is trying to beat Sherrod Brown this cycle, I don't know that President Trump would be as comfortable with that.

as say a Byron Donald's in Florida. So there's a lot of moving parts, but the key criteria is comfort. This person, you have to work with them every single day. You have to be able to trust them, not their loyalty and their fidelity to you personally,

but the fidelity to the agenda. Well, a couple of things in response. And then I want to talk about how you integrate this person in the campaign. So one, not on the VP on energy. I mean, truthfully, the stats are the stats, which is we're kind of a high in terms of American energy production. I think this is where I'd like to see the Biden administration talk more about that, even though they get some criticism about,

from those that think we should only exist on clean energy, but we're in a transition, right? It's got to be an all of the above strategy. That's certainly how President Obama talked about it, which is while we're transitioning, we're going to produce as much energy here as we can. I will say this though. I mean, it seems like most of the people who were on the short list have done interviews recently. And by the way, Donald Trump may have a list. He may pick somebody who's on no one short list, right? But they've all refused to say they would accept the election results. And I do think that

You mentioned people who had run against Donald Trump or didn't vote for him. So, right. So clearly he can get over that. But I do think that, you know, he was obviously highly critical, including during the attack on the Capitol of Mike Pence for not doing what he considered the right thing. So I'd love to hear those conversations. I obviously won't. But I think the important thing here as we think about it is you mentioned color. So I want to focus on that.

And again, listen, this could change. But right now, I think you'd agree if you look at most of the public research, my understanding is this is consistent with what, you know, a lot of Democratic pollsters are seeing that Trump's strength right now in the race is based on part on higher stated preference by voters of color, particularly younger voter colors, who are

are less likely to vote either based on their first time voters. They don't have a history. How much do you think that in terms of your first criteria, which has helped me win, will he think about that? Now, obviously there's going to be candidates who aren't of color that might be effective messengers to those voters, but how much of, will he think about that? Or is it really a relationship between Trump and those voters? You should think about it.

David, you're right. It's Donald Trump's relationship with those voters that's paramount and that is sort of sacrosanct. We see that in the fact that he even has resurged and reemerged as the Republican presidential nominee that has an awful lot to do with his relationship with those voters as he built it over time. And may I just say, it's not just a base at this point, it's base plus. If it were just a base, he would not be beating Joe Biden in

many of these swing state polls or most of these swing state polls. Why is that important to VP selection? Well, again, you want somebody who

The voters already are supporting President Trump won't say, you did what? Why would you pick that person? That person isn't good for your agenda. That person hasn't been a reliable fighter for the America First agenda. That person doesn't seem to care about the forgotten man, forgotten woman, many of whom feel invisible now. That's not likely to happen. But I believe a major consideration, if not

Sometime hesitation for President Trump in selecting the VP running mate may be

Am I broadcasting to the world that this person would be the heir apparent to MAGA after I'm no longer president? And knowing Donald Trump as I do, I think he'd probably prefer people to fight for that, to earn that on their own. And so that may work against a Sarah Huckabee Sanders or a J.D. Vance, even though they've got a lot of merit otherwise. President Trump would not want people to say, hey, he's given us this person for the next 12 years.

I absolutely believe he would want people to earn it, including his vice president. And look, there's so much that I know President Trump wants to do in his second term that anybody who's looking at 2020 is looking at the wrong year. The year to look at is 2025.

A small regret is slouching in the dentist chair thinking, I should have brushed and flossed a little bit better. A big health regret is listening to your doctor and thinking, I should have paid attention to nutrition when I was younger. Better health today and when it matters most is why I take Field of Greens. I do too. Field of Greens is unlike any fruit and vegetable supplement currently on the market. Field of Greens isn't watered down extract.

Field of Greens is an organic superfood. It's whole fruits and vegetables. Each fruit and vegetable is selected by doctors to support vital body functions like heart, liver, kidneys, metabolism, and your immune system. And only Field of Greens is backed by a better health promise. At your next checkup, your doctor will notice your improved health or your money back. So don't look back and say, I should have paid attention to nutrition when I was younger. Field of Greens is a key to better health today and when it matters most.

Let's get you started with 15% off and free shipping. Visit fieldofgreens.com and use promo code MANAGER. That's promo code MANAGER at fieldofgreens.com. Well, it's interesting. I think that if I was advising Donald Trump, which is the farthest thing from reality we can imagine, and you're just focused on your first criteria, which is help me win. And again, I think the most important one is the second one, help me govern.

would be, I think a lot of times people think about this election as, oh, who's going to help me with the sort of quintessential swing voters? We usually think about it, right? Suburban women outside of Phoenix or outside of Milwaukee. But I actually think if you look at the polls in this race and what you would put the top of the list of women may determine the outcome. I think it is these younger voters of color that are having a flirtation with Trump, right? So as you think about a VP, and by the way, that may not be their

It may be somebody who doubles down on shaking up the system. Right. I mean, that's what's really interesting about it. But that's where I think for us in 08, I think Barack Obama really made the decision based on the second criteria, which is if I win, particularly as we're heading into a deeper and deeper financial crisis.

Who can help me win? By the way, interestingly enough, one of the reasons that Joe Biden was so attracted to him, I think, was, well, he's never going to run for president. You know, that's kind of that's kind of done and dusted. And then he ends up running and winning a year ago. So we can never be sure these things change. But because he was a young candidate, hadn't been in Washington very long, having somebody from Washington, you know,

we thought would be of some source of comfort to the voters, right? I think we're very clear, which is this is not going to be a difference maker for us, but that seemed to make sense. And also he was thinking, who can really help me on Capitol Hill, right? Yes. And that, what everything about Joe Biden, he's got relationships, he's done a lot of negotiation. I think he's shown that as president. So, and I watched him firsthand, like be on the phone with Mitch McConnell, be on the phone with John Boehner. He was very good at it. So it's interesting. I think back to the integration, like

I remember when we finally got done with the primary against Hillary Clinton, it's like, hey, it's going to be great to have a running mate because we can go to twice the number of cities every day and have twice the number of fundraisers and do twice the number of interviews. But the reality, quite frankly, can be somewhat jarring, which is it's hard enough to run a presidential campaign with one principal. And then you get a second, right? And it's like, oh, that's a whole person with their family. You've got to hire staff. Right.

You've got double the logistics. You got double the opportunity, but also double the risk. So and I thought Joe Biden did a great job for us both in eight and 12. He did well in both debates, both of them tough. Palin and Ryan were hard in different ways. Spent a lot of time in kind of smaller exurban communities where he had a pill. He did great. But man, as a campaign manager, it's a burden to like.

you know, integrate that in the whole apparatus. Now you can, now Trump will be what that'll be mid July. So a little bit more time he's done it before. It probably will be less of a tax on the system, but I wonder, you know, back from 16, when you were managing the race, if you have any thoughts about that, because that, that surprised me, I hadn't fully priced in, like, is it great as it is to have another principal out there? It actually can be a pain in the ass too on some days.

You're absolutely right. And one of the things I said in my New York Times op-ed that I absolutely believe is true every cycle and every selection for VP, but is particularly true for President Trump is he should choose someone who's not a distraction for him. There are a lot of distractions, people trying to...

I think, divert his time away from the campaign trail. There are these lawsuits. There are tons of people trying to get in his way, stop him from becoming president again. That's going to be typical. But having someone on his ticket as his running mate that Donald Trump has to answer for and about goes against the plan, in my view, which is somebody who adds, doesn't subtract, or more dangerously detract and distract.

from what he's trying to accomplish. So look, the vice presidential running mate also, I think, has to be somebody who's reinforcing the message, but in his or her own voice with their own personal flourish and adding some of those personal stories and anecdotes. The other thing I would just say, because there's so much attention on the VP selection, which is the most important selection and choice. But David, as you and I both know and appreciate and have worked on,

It's really important who else you're putting in your cabinet. So people who may be a runner up, if Donald Trump doesn't choose Ben Carson or Doug Burgum or Bill Hagerty or someone else on the long short list, somehow he doesn't choose them for VP. There are many other important positions that would need to be filled. And I want people to realize whether it's in the West Wing with your non-confirmable staff principles or it's that Senate confirmed position.

large group of people, beginning with cabinet and deputy cabinet positions. That's also important. The other thing that's going to be important, I think, for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, they don't have the excitement of choosing a new presidential nominee or naming a vice presidential running mate this time. But whoever they choose as their keynote speaker, I think is important because that's been a real launching pad in the past. Yeah.

for both parties, but particularly I just remember the Democratic Party. Mario Cuomo, he didn't run for president. People certainly begged him to. Bill Clinton gave the keynote. Barack Obama gave the keynote. So it could be an important selection. I bet there's a lot of jockeying behind the scenes as to who that might be. And as for selecting Kamala Harris, I didn't understand the choice at the time. I had seen her a little bit in action in the Senate. I thought if Joe Biden was

The nominee, Joe Biden, wanted to pick a woman. He could have picked Amy Klobuchar. If he wanted to pick a woman of color, there were many to pick from that weren't named Kamala Harris, Karen Bass, congresswoman from California, now the mayor of Los Angeles, certainly Val Demings, former police chief of Orlando, probably why she couldn't be selected for a party that was saying to fund the police in 2020. But congresswoman from that area who ran against Marco Rubio for Senate in 2020,

Certainly Keisha Lance. But I mean, the list goes on and on. So I didn't understand it. But I think in the end, he chose someone who I think she was the highest ranking African-American woman, possibly in the center of the country politically. But he also chose someone who wasn't going to upstage him. I think he thought wouldn't do a lot of harm to the ticket, would generate a ton of excitement.

And and but maybe would not upstage. And I think it's easy to upstage Joe Biden. There are many much more articulate, exciting, inspiring, younger figures in the Democratic Party who I think at this point could easily have been the nominee instead of him. They could have convinced President Biden to step aside for other people, but they simply can't do that here. And everybody knows it because they lack confidence.

confidence in Vice President Harris's competence. You don't believe me, believe all the polls. I believe the polls. They all say the same thing. But again, it's an important relationship. And I think it's one, by the way, David, I'll just say this, when that relationship gels during the campaign between presidential and vice presidential running mates,

And they win. It's so helpful because I think it sets the tone and the content for the entire team around them. Yeah. Well, I agree with that. And you got to live with this person. I mean, every day you're in, you know, you know, multiple meetings a day with them. The way the vice presidency has evolved is not a warm bucket of spit anymore. You got to give them real things to do. They got to deliver on it.

It's probably your most important advisor amongst all the advisors. It's important. And I will say on Kamala Harris, you know, they, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won that election in 20. You know, I think her approval ratings with the general elector right now are about where his are. They kind of traveling together. She's obviously, I think, doing better than he is with, you know, some younger voters, voters of color. And I think she'll be effective surrogate. But what was fascinating about Biden is I think, I don't think it was about upstaging him. I think how,

Having been vice president, that's a super interesting dynamic, which is, okay, I just served eight years in this role. I know it really well. What am I looking for? And I think ultimately, you know, I think her experience in the Senate was really important. I think she ran a large department in California as the attorney general. But, you know, at the end of the day, I agree with you on the keynote. I think the construction of our convention is probably more important than the Republican convention. I'm worried because everyone's saying it's going to be like Chicago of 68.

So even if there's 20 protesters, you know, there's going to be a lot of coverage about that. So but I think the keynote address is really important. I'm sure we will have some Republicans who have prominent speaking slots as well, making the case against the former president. But I think that keynote job is important. I want to switch a little bit to, you know, these VP picks are going to be spending time. Well, they'll have to go to places like Dallas and L.A. to raise money. But for the most part, they're in the battleground states.

You and I, I think, have talked and agreed that there's seven right now in North Carolina, kind of still hanging in there. We talked about the New York Times polls in the first episode that came out in mid-May. We now have seen recently some polls from the Cook Political Report. I'm super excited that they're starting to do some battleground state polls. I wish all the news organizations with any money would stop doing national polls, you know, as it relates to the presidential race. I just don't understand it. But so whenever they come out, you know, as I'm sure you do, I dive into them.

One thing I wanted to speak to, which I find interesting, and this is consistent in the conversations I have in Democratic circles, people who are seeing real time data, is I wouldn't have thought at the beginning of this cycle that Wisconsin consistently is a stronger state for Joe Biden than Michigan or Pennsylvania. What's interesting, of course, is it's the least diverse of those three.

So it points out that at least at this stage in the race, his support levels amongst white voters, white voters that voted in 2020, suburban women, even some seniors, both men and women, he's improved a little bit there over 20. So that's why the Wisconsin numbers are more resilient, right? And what you see in Michigan and Pennsylvania is a little bit more erosion. Now, I do think that's fragile erosion for Donald Trump because it's built on

A really hard thing to do, which is pretty dramatically increase your support levels amongst a cohort in four short years and make sure unreliable voters turn out. But if those two things happen, I think he's going to like the outcome on election night. But it is interesting to me that Wisconsin, I would have thought that of those three blue wall states, it would be the hardest to win the so-called tipping point state. It still may be, as you and I both know, we've got a gazillion political lifetimes through now on people. And I really want to like people have to understand that.

There's a whole bunch of stuff we know, and there's a whole bunch of stuff we don't know. And as much as this country is divided and a lot of people's choices are locked in, we know from the research, there's some fluidity here. So this thing could bounce around. But at this point, it looks like Wisconsin is the strongest probably of all the battleground states for Joe Biden, at least as it relates to polling in early June. And that, quite frankly, surprises me. And I think I understand a little bit why that is. And it uncovers kind of the mysteries of this race, which is

Joe Biden right now, if you said, OK, let's look at his 2020 vote where he won the presidency, I'll buy it narrowly. It's the white vote for the most part.

That is at those levels. And he's struggling with some of these, you know, younger voters of color and even some some older voters of color. So that to me is the most interesting thing. And again, you see a lot of those non voters of color. I'm sorry, a lot of those voters of color still voting Democrat in Senate races, maybe not the level I would like, but still. So there's a delta there. But as we think about the battleground states, I think that he's got to win those three. I mean, I just don't think you want to be in a position where you're like, well, I can lose.

I can lose Michigan, but I'll pick that up in North Carolina, or I can lose Wisconsin, I'll pick up Arizona. I still think Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada perhaps will be close. But right now, those three Midwestern states look more winnable. But I'm just curious, because obviously you've studied these states backwards and forwards as well, kind of what you make of those seven. And if you think that Wisconsin ultimately is going to hang in there as Joe Biden's best state, or do you think that'll change?

Sure, David, there's a lot there. I should go back to 2004, which I hadn't thought about in a while. I won the Washington Post Crystal Ball Award that year for being the most accurate predictor of the outcomes of the Senate races, the presidential race. And you'll remember it was Bush Cheney going for reelection against Bush.

John Kerry and John Edwards, his running mate. And I always felt the race in the polls and frankly, the race, ultimately the actual outcome was a little too close for comfort. I felt we were at war. People were supporting us.

the office of the presidency. It was the first election after 9-11, even though 9-11 happened so early into the Bush presidency. It was about eight months after he was inaugurated. A tragic day, of course, for everyone. And

The one state, the two states I got wrong, I got 48 states right as to whether Kerry or Bush are going to win them. I was wrong on New Mexico and Wisconsin. I said New Mexico for Kerry and Wisconsin for Bush. And I learned my lesson about Wisconsin that day because I said, how did I miss that? And by the way, I missed it without paying close attention to the fact that

Down ballot, New Mexico had gone pretty well for Democrats for a while, but presidentially kept going for Republicans. And Wisconsin, to your point, had been elusive to Republicans at the top of the ticket since 1984 when President Reagan won it in his landslide 49 state victory for reelection. So I learned my lesson about Wisconsin then. However, I also put it into 2016 politics.

We ended up sending Trump and Pence and many other people there late in the game because we saw Hillary was ignoring it. I think that Hillary ignoring Wisconsin by and large and Michigan and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania, but definitely Michigan and Wisconsin is a mistake that Biden, Harris and the team won't make and didn't make in 2020 trying to win that back.

So you're right. All these swing state polls of the six or seven swing states show something pretty ironic and rich, but something that keeps on being a persistent narrative all through 2024, which is that Joe Biden tends to do a little bit better than his average in the swing states in the whiter states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and as you just said, the whitest of the three, Wisconsin, roughly 80.4% white alone, according to the latest census statistics.

Whereas Donald Trump is doing better in the more diverse states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. When you isolate Wisconsin, if you have for this conversation, that is the place where Joe Biden is doing best. But if that's going to be the big takeaway from all these swing state polls, Biden's in big trouble. Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, Pennsylvania's 19, and Michigan's 15. I think it also has to do with the fact that it's a Catholic state, Wisconsin. I should say it's got a larger percentage of Catholics than average Americans.

on average for states. And so that may help Biden there, but it is the swingest of swing states. Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, they each prevail with less than a percentage point. It is where the Republicans chose to have their convention. It'll be in Milwaukee less than two months from now, David, I'm sure we'll be talking a lot about it. And of late, it has favored Democrats down ballot. Ron Johnson won reelection in 2022, maybe one of the only two or three bright lights in

for our Senate candidates that particular cycle and what should have been a much better cycle and wasn't. I say this because I don't think we'll ever have a conversation about swing states, you and me, where we're not legitimately and passionately including Wisconsin in there. So I

And I think Wisconsin somehow in the general election has now become like the Iowa and New Hampshire of the primaries and caucuses, right? In that people are just, they're so accustomed to being asked what they think, how they feel, how they're going to vote, what's inspiring them, motivating them, frustrating them, what their advice is to the candidates. They are overly focused groups and overly polled, as they say in Wisconsin, but that will continue. And I would not be surprised if you see many visits in

from Trump and his running mate and Biden and Harris between now and election day in Wisconsin? I think it might be the state where the Democrats have the strongest organization of all of them. And I think, you know, we've got good organization in all seven, but because there's just been election after election, you know, you go back to the recalls and that there's huge judicial races and there's a lot of special elections. And while that can make people weary and they got to work really hard, it's like it never ends.

I think it keeps you kind of in an athletic pose. And so if Wisconsin ultimately comes down to 10 or 15,000 votes, I think the organization can play a difference there. I'm curious as you think about this. I remember back in 08, we had about, I don't know, 12, 14 swing states, got a little bit less than that in 12 because we didn't compete as hard in North Carolina at the end and we didn't compete really at all in Indiana or Missouri.

In 16, you know, you've talked about the fact that you started with a broader set, but then you really had to focus in more narrowly, yet you kind of threaded the needle there and basically hit all the shots you took to win those states. Mm-hmm.

I mean, I think about this. I could be wrong about this. My strong suspicion is, let's say by the end of August, as the dust settles, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona are going to be very competitive. I don't know. Maybe Donald Trump still has a small advantage in them. And that matters. I mean, back in 12, when we beat Mitt Romney, tied national poll race, we had small but consistent leads in those battlegrounds. And that's why we felt confident, never overly confident.

So we'll see. But I still think Joe Biden will be bouncing around all seven of those. I think Donald Trump will. It's clear Trump would like to add some other states like New Hampshire and Minnesota. But but at the end of the day, I think what a presidential campaign has to do is like I remember in 08, John McCain and Sarah Palin pulled out of Michigan.

which was a horrible day, but it was the right thing to do. Like we were clearly going to win Michigan by double digits. So you can't be romantic about this. And I'm just curious. So I, again, my sincere hope and my sincere belief is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be going after all seven states, but in a scenario where you kind of have a tear and maybe you are more focused on those blue wall states, you actually did that in 16. So what was that like? Cause your, your aperture, it gets smaller in a way, but,

And even though you get grief because people are like, oh, you're giving up on states, you know, you've got to do the responsible thing. But it must also make focus easier because what people have to understand about a presidential race is it is basically a series of governor's races. Like I remember in 2008 and 2012, like we went to every corner of Ohio. Yep. Seems every corner of Florida, right? Every corner of Virginia. Like that's what we did. That was our world. But boy, if you're only really focused on three or four states, then you really are like running.

you know, a quasi governor's race. And, and you know, every pocket of that state and the voters in those states just extraordinarily well. You do. But David, I think now there's a risk of oversaturation for any of these candidates. If there are too many ads, if there are too many ads about one thing, if there are too, if there are too many visits, uh,

Too much repetition. I don't know if repetition becomes reiteration or just becomes annoying to certain voters. Like I heard you the first 300 times in my living room. I see that more down ballot than presidentially. They enjoy visits from the guys and gals at the top of the ticket. The thing I would say about 2016 is necessity was a mother of invention. We were understaffed, underfunded, obviously underdog and underestimated, but we had to be creative and innovative, not just quote disciplined. And creative and innovative meant

deploying our two best assets, absolutely Donald Trump, who given his own airplane, Trump Force One as we call it, was able to go six, seven places a day, eight, nine toward the end. And he was willing to do that. And then Mike Pence was willing to do that. So it helps.

immeasurably if you have two candidates running that are literally willing to cover double the terrain. And it mattered because little known to everybody, we were doing the local radio show, the local TV hit, the local print interview backstage before Donald Trump would even take to the podium and speak for an hour.

And then all the cable stations would give him almost unlimited time and they would give his campaign manager unlimited time. They certainly gave his running mate unlimited time and some of the other surrogates and they'll just never do that again. I think they'll never forgive themselves for doing it and they'll never provide us that again, which is why many of them are just nasty and say things that aren't true and they know it. But in any event,

He's got his own way of campaigning and I think you're seeing it now. He's stuck in the courtroom, but he'll visit the bodega. He'll go and pay his respects to the fallen officer in Massapequa, New York on Long Island. He'll be the first person of any note from either party, from either administration to go to East Palestine, Ohio with the train derailment and the pollution, the gas leak, et cetera. And then most recently in the South Bronx.

He's not trying to win the South Bronx, although he probably is. He doesn't need to win the South Bronx. He needs to show up in the South Bronx to tell people, if I'm going to be the president to all Americans in all 50 states, I want to show up in all 50 states. I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up in Delaware sometime soon. Does anybody think he's going to win Joe Biden's home state of Delaware? No. But do some of us think that having spent 40% of your presidency on vacation, roughly, or out of the White House and

Maybe he's running for mayor of Rehoboth and not president again. I don't know, but I think Donald Trump will be able to keep going places. Now there's a risk to that. You're not in those swing states. The swing states are watching what you're doing, but you're not there. And let me tell you something. I heard it years ago, but it's so true. A Democratic consultant said it and I watched him say it publicly. And it's so true. There's nothing quite like the war of Air Force One.

and the smell of Air Force One or Air Force Two jet fuel coming to your state to campaign for you down ballot, to campaign for themselves. There's no substitute for showing up and being there. And we'll see how willing Joe Biden is to do that. He didn't have to do that in 2020. I think Joe Biden has benefited by not having to campaign and be seen much at all. I think campaigning from the proverbial basement during COVID helped Joe Biden. And honestly, if I were advising him this time,

I would do more of that. I wouldn't try to put him out there and make him something he's not and have him demonstrate skills that he just doesn't have. Well, he's been doing a lot of campaigning. I think also to your point, there's not borders around content, right? So you have a good piece of content, whether it's a trip that's not to a battleground or just a video that people like, that can help you in the battlegrounds. I still think trips to battleground states, particularly as an incumbent, the plane pulls up, there's a lot of coverage. But

particularly if you can manufacture your schedule so you're getting to smaller communities. I always thought certainly that that overperformed, right? You go to a town of 50,000 people where people come from the surrounding areas. It matters more than going to a big city where they might be kind of used to having, you know, a president. So I think Biden's done a fair amount already. I think we'll see more, but I think you do have to construct a schedule and a strategy that's consistent with your candidate strengths, right? But to me, I

if you think through the fact that local media still matters to everybody. So you want to be out there in those battleground states getting local news coverage.

But obviously, you know, you think about Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, you know, your most effective strategy. Some of that can be based on the travel you're doing. A lot of it doesn't be. So this all to me, again, we talked about this in our first episode. But how are these key voters getting information? And you've got to construct a strategy to reach them. I'm curious. One prediction I would love to hear you hazard a guess on is.

When will Trump make his selection? I think there's two ways to think about it. One is you do it as soon as you're ready so you get the benefit of a second person being out there. The other is you build up the suspense. I know for us in 08, we announced Joe Biden as Barack Obama's running mate by text. He said, hey, you know, you sign up and we'll let you know first.

And we did it late. We did it right before the convention. Do you think that he will wait till like the weekend before the convention? Could he even do this like the Wednesday of the convention? Like what's your suspicion about the timing of all this? The timing will be Donald Trump's in his alone. However, he does have a couple of different windows in which to make the news and announce his selection. I wouldn't wait as long.

long as up to the moment of the convention, because you want that individual to be able to prepare his or her acceptance speech. And again, be knitted into the entire week. It was really helpful to have the Pence family and the Trump family together at the beginning of that week. I feel like maybe you selected in mid-July, if I recall. And I felt like it was very helpful to have everybody knitted together and all on one page. So-

In any event, it doesn't have to happen much before the convention, but happening during the convention maybe loses some precious days and hours to get more in sync and have all the public-facing appearances for that person, go do what we call the full Ginsburg on the Sunday shows or go and give a big speech, be seen with President Trump somewhere.

But I don't think he has to do it in May or even early June. I think President Trump can keep the suspense built.

And I feel like this will be just another day for Donald Trump, meaning he's doing so many creative things now in terms of even though he's in the courtroom, courthouse, when he goes back to Trump Tower, he's he's doing radio shows, audio and video. So he said he's stuck, stuck in New York, as he makes clear and as as his detractors and political opponents probably like. But it doesn't prevent him from appearing on.

on radio or on TV in some of these local markets. And it certainly doesn't prevent him from taking the days off, the Wednesdays, the Saturdays, the Sundays, the early Fridays to go out and campaign. So I feel he should look at the VP running mate as that on steroids.

So he can do that. I think that that person's speech is incredibly important. Also, Donald Trump is very healthy. He's very energetic. Everybody can see that. But people want to know that whoever this is, whoever this is, is ready on day one. I think that gives an advantage over Kamala Harris. I suspect we're going to hear more.

from more people as the days and weeks and months go on, David, from people saying, look, a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris, possibly for 12 years. You could just leave it at that. Some people say, yay, that's fantastic. I can't wait to have her for 12 years. And we all know that many people won't. So that's another messaging point I think they have in their quiver. But

But look, whoever he picks, people will pick that person apart. I like your idea that, you know, when you're in the Senate, you're already vetted. But as one of the people on the short list said to me very recently, until you actually run for president or vice president, you don't even know what vetting is.

Well, right. And that's, you know, you mentioned, you know, some of the people that don't get picked for VP historically go into the cabinet. And one of the reasons is, one, they've developed a rapport with the principal, right? They got to know the president, but also they went through the proctological vetting process. So you're pretty confident that nothing's going to surprise you in the Senate. I mean, I think Kamala Harris's speech will be important that the, you know, 20 was weird. Obviously we had COVID conventions. Yes.

I think this will be a more important speech for her. And I think I have great confidence she'll do a great job. The one thing is we think about Trump's timing. It's always important to remind people there's actually a handful of important moments left. That's it. Now, there could be an economic shock. There could be a foreign policy shock. Right. There could be a natural disaster. But there is the debates, the biggest moments left.

The conventions are big, but I would say Trump's pick of his VP, you know, exceeds those because you, because people will be like, who's he going to pick? So it is a big moment. So you want to, you want to think through the stagecraft of that. We picked Biden. I think he was notified on a Friday. They appeared together for the first time on a Saturday. Then our convention started on Monday and,

And, you know, looking back, that was it worked out and we made sure they had a lot of time together. I think your point's important. You want these two people to spend even more time together, their families, the staffs. But there is something around. I think there's tension between what's the latest moment you can do this and what's the way to do it in a way that ensures the best stickiness going forward.

Well, we will stay tuned. Maybe Donald Trump will surprise us, but it'll be fascinating nonetheless. Look, I said earlier, and I want to repeat it, David, is that the goal is to surprise but not shock people. And there's a big difference. I thought Dan Quayle was treated unfairly. Here's a guy who had taken out Birch Bayh, Evan Bayh, you mentioned before, on the proverbial shortlist for many.

candidates. I remember sitting on a plane with Susan Bai one day, God rest her soul now. And she said, we're always on the shortlist, Kellyanne. They come, they vet us. We have to go through all this, give all of our paperwork. And he's left to the dance. He's the bridesmaid, not the bride. But I said, the VP is the bridesmaid, not the bride. But in any event, you're just not the maid of honor. So

I get that. But, you know, here's the thing. Well, he was a serious senator who had taken out Birch Bay, Bay Bay Bay famously in his 30s. And here he was as the vice presidential selection in his early 40s.

did a fine job and people, you know, just could not get over their shock. The media don't like to be shocked. They like to think that, well, I knew that was going to happen or I kept saying it was so-and-so or so-and-so. Same thing with Sarah Palin. I just want to give everybody a little bit of color that you'll recall what happens to, and it happens now with even judicial selections for the Supreme Court. You've got media outlets that deploy people close to

say, you know, wherever Mark and Jeanette Rubio are, where Tim Scott and his fiance are going to be that day or where Byron and Erica Dollins are, Ben and Candy Carson, they go and they follow these people and they position themselves in their hometowns or they look at the public schedule and they try to figure out where are they and if they're

quote, home, wherever that is, and not making their way to Bedminster or Mar-a-Lago or wherever Trump wants to do this, Milwaukee. Then people say, it can't be this person. It can't be that person. My favorite anecdote about this, I wanted to share with folks what happened in 2012. We were not involved in the Romney campaign, but when he chose Paul Ryan, they tried to put the media off, take them off their scent.

By having John Orion, Paul Orion's wife, she has an identical twin sister.

And they had her answer the front door and John was in the back as it's reported, went out the back door. It's pretty clever stuff. So yeah, that's awesome. A lot of subterfuge. It's all this intrigue and people traveling around the helicopters. And so I think we'll have an awful lot of that this time to your point about the excitement and anticipation around Donald Trump's selection. Well, it was fun to dive into all things VP selection today and all the factors that go into choosing a

the right VP. And that's important. It's vice president. Yes. First part's candidate, but then they become vice president. Many of these people actually go on to be president. So it's actually enormously important selection, not just for the person making it, but for the country. So we'll be all watching very closely, obviously in the weeks to come to see what kind of clues we can pick up. I would love to ask all you listeners to please be sure to like, and subscribe to the campaign managers podcast so that you can easily get our episodes every week.

And leave us a good review if you could. And please tell us what you'd like us to dive into and give our expertise on because we would like to take your lead and talk about things that would be most interesting and informative to you. For myself, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Thank you so much for joining us for this episode of The Campaign Managers. And remember, it's easy to be enraged. It's essential to be engaged. Have a great week. Have a great week, everybody.

Hey, it's Adam Carolla. Not sure if you heard, but I do a podcast Monday through Thursday, wherever you listen to podcasts. I team up with the very best comedians in the world, plus critical thinkers and all around nut jobs and offer my personal insight on current events, the state of the nation and the stories you may have missed.

As the world gets crazier every day, you can stay fairly sane. I'll keep you there. I'll handle the crazy. Nuance is often lost on today's world, but you can find it right here. Available wherever you listen to find our podcast. I'm Adam Carolla, and I approve of this message.