Preparing for the Debates
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Hi, I'm David Plouffe. And I'm Kellyanne Conway. And welcome to the Campaign Managers Podcast. So Kellyanne, we're releasing this episode the day before the momentous first presidential debate of the 2024 election happening much earlier than normal. Maybe let's start there, which is, I think, I'm glad we're not working with the commission anymore. I was frustrated about with the commission back when the

This is my remit. I'm not sure we'll only have two presidential debates. My guess is whoever least likes their position on the night of September 10th will be asking for more debates. But let's talk about like what an early debate like this was.

could mean. I mean, I think it is smart. I think both the Trump and Biden campaigns wanted earlier debates than we've had before because a lot of people are voting early. And I think that makes a lot of sense. This is happening before the conventions, before Donald Trump's picked his VP. You know, I think it matters to both of them. I mean, that's the one thing I think I'm sure you agree with. I mean,

presidential debates still matter a great deal. And this one matters, I think, a lot. And it matters to Joe Biden because voters have concerns about his age. I've seen polls that say half the electorate's not sure he'll get through 90 minutes.

Donald Trump, obviously, there's been some slippage in some polls with independents post-conviction. Maybe he's got an opportunity to get some of those people back. It's a close race with Trump, you know, I think having a narrow lead in some states. But I think Biden has a lot riding on this. It's probably the most important 90 minutes of his political life. But I'd be curious to get your thought on just the timing of this. Like,

Like, what do you think about having one debate in late June, a second debate, I think, of September 10th? And as it stands now, no other debates.

Yes. I mean, David, if you look back to even recent history in 2016, the non-COVID election that I was involved in, the debates didn't start till about September 26th. There were three debates agreed to, but the first one was weeks after the one that's scheduled last so far. So that tells you something about the rapid change in the way that we are sussing out and considering and then electing our president's.

I think it is part of function of the post-COVID world where many of these COVID measures for voting early and counting the votes late still attach. You can, I believe, request your absentee ballot or your early ballot in North Carolina right after Labor Day. So this is super early. So number one, you are correct. We are voting earlier, so why not have the debate earlier? Number two...

We got the nominees earlier than we usually do. So Trump clinched the nomination probably six or seven weeks earlier than he did in 2016. Right. And so why not have them? And the third reason, which is really my top reason, is why not give Americans a chance to see the candidates side by side, see that binary choice and

and have them answer questions for the moderators, but also do a little bit of a back and forth on policy prescriptions, on different choices they've made as president, different pieces of their vision for it would be second term. I'm all for in our great democracy and constitutional republic, we the people having more opportunities, not fewer, to actually see the candidates raw, uncaught, unfiltered, unmanaged.

Totally agree with that. If in fact the 10th is the last debate, that's an enormous amount of time between that and election day. And that's a very different beast. But let's talk about debate prep. You've led this for presidential campaigns as have I. We've done it for a lot of candidates through the year, Senate, governor, House, et cetera. I think it's important to remind folks that, you

you know, these are not the Lincoln-Douglas debates. You need to prepare as if this is a performance first, right? A policy debate second. Now we can all wish that wasn't the case, but that's true. And you know, the truth is both Trump and Biden are fairly loquacious. They give long stump speeches. They give long answers. So mission one is to make sure you're condensing your answers. And that's what you're practicing a lot, which is your healthcare answer in 90 seconds or two minutes, right?

which is probably for both of them, what I've done, what I want to do, contrast with opponent, bring some humanity into it, why the issue is important. But I do think one thing I wanted to really pick your brain on is particularly in this election cycle, when there's so many people who are getting their news exclusively, particularly young voters from TikTok, Instagram, YouTube. Yes, we're going to have a huge audience next Thursday night, but that will skew

It will skew people who pay a lot of attention to politics. I'm not suggesting that younger voters won't be tuning in. It's going to be, you know, not the Super Bowl, but it's going to be big ratings. But you also have to understand that there's going to be really important parts of the electorate that are getting their information on this debate that night and the following couple of days on social media.

Those may be short clips. They may be from influencers. They could be memes. And so as I think about preparing for a debate like this, I don't think you want to over crank yourself and say, I need like three moments that are great TikTok videos. But you've got to have an eye towards that, right? Because there is going to be particularly in this race where Biden is showing, you know, there's concern about his performance with younger voters, disengaged voters, Trump showing some strength there.

Such an important cohort. So you've got to prep, I think, not just for the audience that's watching the debate,

But then how do you have these moments? And that's not just the candidate then. It's like, how's the campaign going to dominate that night and the couple of next days on social media? So I know that was part of Facebook was such a big part of your 16 election. It played a big role in 20. The internet obviously played a big role in the Obama years. But I think particularly this year, you're going to have this huge decisive swath of the electorate, maybe not watching the debate in original form. So we'll just love your thoughts about how you how do you think about that?

All excellent points, David, and all ones that I really hope the electorate will consider as they're watching or as they're hearing second or third hand, quote, what happened.

There's something called the spin room. As you know, we've both been in it. It's kind of awful, actually. Yeah. But yes, it is. Sounds awful, but the really is to say, you know, how and why your candidate won and pick out those few moments where they really shined. I promise you right now, before the debate even happens, I could sort of predict what the Trump and Biden campaigns are going to say about the debate.

which is, you know, Biden's going to say, you saw tonight why Donald Trump is unfit to be president. He's a threat to democracy. He's going to take away a woman's right to choose. He's, he's, um, he's terrible on climate change. He is a bully. He's an authoritarian. Even if let's just pretend none of that was raised whatsoever. Those words were never said. He can still say what he's saying now and what they're going to say, despite a lot of warnings and counsel to the contrary, they're going to say that between now and election day. And

And I'm sure President Trump's going to say, did you see Joe? He couldn't even stand there. I was feet away from him. The guy just doesn't have it. I was right next to him, everybody. It doesn't even convey on the TV. If you think it's bad what you see on the TV, you should have seen the guy next to me. And he can say that regardless of the substantive conversation. So you're right. You're going to see things like that. And people are going to, I think that with

Clips and third hand opinion of what happened and what we saw or heard or didn't see and didn't hear. It sometimes is trust without verifying because everybody wants something to fit into their, their predisposed opinion. So the big question is what will these swing voters think? I don't know that they're going to tune in for 90 minutes.

And it's longer than 90 minutes this time because for the first time that I can recall, if not ever, we're going to have commercials. I don't know why we're having commercials. I think that 90 straight minutes of uninterrupted time is the way to go. This is not the Super Bowl where sometimes the commercials are more fun than what's being played on the field. I want to see the players on the field. So we can talk about the new rules in a second.

But you're right about the impression. I've seen this. We've all seen this with convention speeches. We've all seen this with State of the Union. What is said in the moment by people is different than what is believed days later after one side or the other has been able to grab hold of

of folks who hadn't seen it live and in person can't make up their own opinion saying, wow, they just keep repeating the meme or repeating the soundbite. So that is a risk slash a reward for both of them. I think the candidates are preparing a little bit differently this time. I see Joe Biden preparing much the way Hillary Clinton did in 2016, which is his public schedule suggests he's going to be in Delaware for the entire week before the debate. Combination, it says, of Wilmington and Rehoboth

Camp David is in there too, where he will be holed up, you know, quote, preparing for the debate. Hillary Clinton did that. They said, well, she's taking it seriously. She will be off the trail for five days. And we in the Trump campaign said, great, I think we'll go campaign for the next five days and do the prep in between or as we can. And people really mock that. But Hillary Clinton left Donald Trump and his campaign. She left us with the media all to ourselves.

Going into those small towns in those cities, connecting with the voters. And Donald Trump prepares to debate, by the way, you saw him in Racine, Wisconsin last week or Wildwood, New Jersey or the South Bronx or West Palm Beach, all these places, Philadelphia recently, all these places he goes to. He's preparing for the debate by laying out what he did for the four years as president.

by giving the vision as to what he would do on day one, week one, month one, year one. And that's probably the best way for him to prepare, not to stand at the podium and not to have somebody play the role of Joe Biden. We've done that in the past also. But every candidate needs to prepare the way he or she feels most comfortable. And it sounds like for President Biden, it's the conventional, typical way. I just feel for the incumbent, it's risky.

to hide him and then leave Donald Trump with a very big country to campaign in while Biden has disappeared? Well, I think your 16 example, those debates were later as we talked about, right? So I think that I'm less concerned about that now because ultimately, if Joe Biden were to have a really strong debate that kind of overperformed voters' expectations, I think that's the most important thing he can do.

And it's June when Barack Obama was preparing for presidential debates, both in eight and 12. We were serious about it. We went to debate camp. You know, our last one in 12 was at Camp David. The other five were kind of around the country, by the way, in battleground states so that he could pop out and do a campaign event and be visible. So I do think that's important. And I, you know, particularly in the fall, I think, because then people were making their decision.

I think you make a good point, which is you've got to craft debate prep in a way that works for the person. I think for Joe Biden, you know, I've been involved in his debate preps both in 8 and 12. Now, those are vice presidential debates. And, you know, he likes to drill on individual like let's really go deep on the health. You know, we know the key exchanges, health care, age, abortion, trials, climate change, taxes, inflation, like really drill a nose. And then I think he does like to do a full mock run through. That doesn't work for everybody. I think that works for him.

partially because you want to replicate what that looks like. Like you want to have the speed of the game, right? And I think that, you know, Ron Klain's leading his debate prep. Ron is as good as anybody I've worked with at this, both at being organized and running a good process, but also about like making adjustments. So we'll see. I do think that of the two candidates, Joe Biden's got more riding on this debate than Donald Trump. I think he's the one that has to get voters to say, okay,

He, you know, had more energy and he was more with it than I expected. So in a way, that's a low bar. I do think what's fascinating for both these candidates is they've both had moments in interviews using their teleprompter even where they kind of stumble a little bit. And so if one of them were to have a really bad moment,

That is to your point, like that could be the thing people are talking about two days afterwards, less about like a heated exchange around inflation or democracy or whatever the topic is. So and I think you're right. Both campaigns are going to say, here's our talking points no matter what happens. But this one's a little hard. I remember after the first debate in 2012, where Mitt Romney cleaned our clock.

We were all out there in the spin room talking about it wasn't as bad as you thought, but people saw it with their own eyes. It was pretty bad, you know? And so I think that you got to be careful about your credibility a little bit. I remember by the end of the night, I said, you know what? It wasn't our best performance, but we don't think it fundamentally changed the race. We've got two more chances.

And so it'll be fascinating to see. But let's talk about the rules, which is I agree with you. I think commercials are outrageous. I'm not sure why that got agreed to. We shouldn't have commercials in the middle of choosing who our next commander in chief is. But other changes from no studio audience, which I kind of like. I think that's how Kennedy did it and Nixon did it. I like that. I've been part of debates that had studio audiences and didn't. I kind of prefer that.

It's interesting. People are saying that the mics get turned off when you're not speaking as an advantage for Biden. I don't read it that way because I think that the research I saw after the first debate in 2016 said some voters, swing voters, were turned off by Trump interrupting as much. So he's not going to have that dynamic now. 2020. In 2020, sorry. It also forces you, quite frankly, to be disciplined about like, if I've got to nail this answer in the time I've been allowed.

And that's one of the things that I found most difficult in debate prep, but important, which is you got to nail the answer in the time. Like if the most important thing you want to say about health care is later, you've lost it. It's like no one heard it. You're so right. It's malpractice, you know, and that's the thing you really got to drill. So so I don't know. It's going to be interesting to me. The other thing that's fascinating is these candidates, I think it's fair to say, don't like each other.

I think they underestimate each other, which is interesting. I think that's never smart to do. I think you should always overestimate your opponent. No doubt. So that dynamic, I think, is going to be really, really interesting. But I think Trump has a lot to gain here, too. So you've talked about this in some of our prior episodes. He's obviously going to criticize Biden and hit him for any number of issues.

But I think if he leaves the debate stage with people saying, you know what, he talked a lot about what he wants to do in the next term, I think he'll benefit from that. So that's the other thing I'd say is tactics is not a debate. It's not a debate strategy. Like, you've got to start your debate strategy and prep with like, what are we fucking trying to accomplish here? Excuse me. Like, what's the big story? Who are we trying to speak to?

And you can't just leap into like, let's practice our health care answer. Let's practice our jobs answer. Like, what's the big overarching thing? And I think that'll be the test, which is if one of these candidates does a better job of punching that ticket each and every time they answer, I think they will advantage themselves in the overall race.

Agree with that. And it is true. Some people want to swing for the fences and get that moment and get that soundbite. But that's really not what America is listening for. That's what the inside political cognoscenti is trying to tweet out and put on Instagram and in their stories. But most people, I think particularly this year, when all the stats and not the nonpolitical polling stats show, David,

A lot of people are suffering. And I've heard even Corrine Jean-Pierre say that from the White House podium pretty remarkably, that they know some people are struggling. They know people are suffering economically. They say they're trying to help that. But

Keep your eye on who the ultimate audience is. It's not the debate moderators. Forget who they are, no matter who they are, respectfully. It's not your base. It's not the hardcore voters who are going to show up, who hate you, who love you. It's that tough middle. It's that last mile, the 10 or 12 percent who are truly...

is chronically undecided, not just about for whom to vote, but whether to bother at all. Right, right. And if these debates are a major turnoff for some of those voters, they'll say, you know what? You just, you just proved my point. This is why I don't like politics. So I don't like discussing it, participating in it. I'm going to be what I call the conscientious, conscientious objector and not vote. I do want it to be a policy, not personality debate. This is a big personality in Donald Trump. This is a quiet personality in Joe Biden. Look,

I don't think that we have talked enough as two people have been in the room for the primary debates, how important those were in my humble opinion to both Donald Trump in 2016 and capturing the nomination and eventually the presidency and to Barack Obama in 2008. They had to be significant figures.

competitors in these debates and perform. And I feel like Obama is an outsider in 08, Trump is the outsider in 2016. The debates helped both of them. And ultimately in the general election in 2016, Trump was going against Hillary Clinton, a very practiced, formidable debater. He took that very seriously. He respected the fact that he was sharing the stage with her. I don't think that was true in 2020. And I don't think Hillary respected the fact that she was sharing the stage with Donald Trump. I think she believed, I have to endure this

fill in the blank with any expletive for three 90 minute times. And then I'm president United States. So let's just do this. Let me endure this and didn't take it as seriously as I think she should have. I say this because Senator Obama in those primary debates, uh,

He wasn't the front runner. She was. She was the front runner. And there were other formidable opponents who didn't take him seriously as somebody who could actually capture the nomination in a way. For Donald Trump, he captured center stage based on the metrics that qualified you and your place on the stage among eight or 10 people. On August 6, 2015, nine years ago, he had center stage and

at the Quicken Loan Center in Cleveland, which would be the site of the Republican National Convention a year later. And he never lost center stage, David. His performance...

just helped him to increase in the polls. People were like, wow, what a badass. He's not afraid when they're calling him out on this and calling it on that. And Megyn Kelly, you know, when her very practiced, rehearsed, let me bury Donald Trump once and for all on what he had said about women. And he just came back with only Rosie O'Donnell. People were like, wow. I mean, I was sitting there saying, what is he going to say? And that's what he said. Love him, hate him, or somewhere in between,

He met the moment. And I just want people to remember how important the primary debates end up being to both of them. And may I just say in 2020, excuse me, may I just say in 2024, Donald Trump benefited from not showing up at any of those debates and from them being his primary opponents being so obsessed with him that instead of ignoring him and telling the country why they'll be

A better alternative to Joe Biden and a better president of the United States in a Donald Trump second term. Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. I feel that it would have benefited President Biden to have had some of those debates with RFK Jr. And maybe some of the others, Cornel West and perhaps Jill Stein. I just feel like it would have benefited him more.

to not have his first debate in four years be against Donald Trump. Well, they both are. That's what's interesting. We've never had this before because, you know, either it's an open seat race or an incumbent president facing someone who's had to wade through. So, you know, it's really interesting. Neither of these candidates have debated in four years.

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No, I think in 08, listen, debating did not come as naturally to Obama as retail politics are speaking. But I think the more that primary went on, particularly when it came down to the two of them. So it was Obama, Clinton, you know, and he held his own. And in some cases, I think won some of those debates. It was important. Trump obviously dominated that field in 16. I mean, it was it was like an adult's table and a kid's table.

And I actually think that he was underestimated, I'm sure, by those folks. He's an unconventional debater.

I think the 16 debate you guys had with Hillary, the first one, I think the immediate peanut gallery reaction was Hillary killed you guys. But I think for a lot of voters, they had low expectations on Trump and he met them. And I actually think he more naturally understands what a presidential debate is than a lot of people who've kind of grown up in politics, which is I'm not saying he's not going to talk about issues, but it is a performance.

I know Barack Obama always struggled with this. He's a constitutional law professor. You kind of want to build up to your closing statement. Right. But what you really need to do is whatever the issue is, you need to say your most important things at the beginning of that two or three minute period. And he hated it.

Because, you know, it is ridiculous that we're going to, you know, maybe if there's only two debates, there's 180 minutes. So each of these people get very little time to talk about key issues and a bunch will be left aside. But that's what we have. And so I but I do think that's right. I think I think looking at Trump in 16, I mean, he just mowed down that field. And, you know, whether it's Gingrich or Cruz or Rubio, these are people who are viewed to have been skilled debaters, right?

And he kind of had his his way with them. We didn't have our way with the field in 08, but we got steadily better and it mattered a great deal. Now, Joe Biden, I think, you know, 08 debating Sarah Palin, tough task. I think he did a very good job of that and took the practice very seriously. 12, that debate became more important for us because we bombed against Romney in the first debate and the Ryan Biden debate was second. And he took that really seriously. He kind of had to stop the bleeding a little bit.

which is what he done. So I've seen him be very disciplined. Again, he's someone who will give a 10 minute answer if he can, can't do that in this. And so he works hard at this. I think one question will be in 2020. I do think that Biden from a presentation standpoint doesn't look the same as he did. Right. And so voters will, will, I think it's fascinating because I think on the one hand, but people are not paying a lot of attention to politics may see him and say he looks older and

On the other hand, we see from the polling, people don't have high expectations. I think there's a sense that Trump may dominate the debate, like he's going to be a stride to stage. I think if Biden holds his own, wins a few key exchanges or, you know, at least has a few key moments, shows energy,

And again, I think he's an incumbent. Incumbents around the world are struggling everywhere. You and I have helped a lot of incumbents run and win through the decades. They generally win when it's a choice, not a referendum. So I think, of course, Biden's going to have to talk about what he's done differently than Trump, what he would do differently than Trump. But it's an element of record control.

Future vision and contrast. And that's a lot to get done in these short periods. But I think if Biden can do a good job of that, he's going to come out of this, you know, because as we've talked about, one of the most fascinating dynamics, we talked to Amy Walter about this, is Biden is underperforming Democratic Senate candidates. And if he has a strong debate performance, how much of those people come back? You know, conversely, Trump is, of course, overperforming Republican Senate candidates. So that's the other thing to think about. These campaigns are going to be very thoughtful about like,

who are we actually trying to reach and move? It's not about the pundits applauding your performance. If the voters that you need to move don't move,

Right. And and it's important to understand, I assume the Trump campaign will do this. I know the Biden campaign will do it. They will have real time research going on with the most important voters as they see it. Usually with little dials, 50 is a neutral response. Zero is an awful response. Hundreds of good response. Like, how did you respond to that? And you get a real time. I know in the campaigns that I was involved with at the presidential level, we cared much more about that than the pundit reaction or even those snap polls.

Like the people we care about respond in the way we hope they did. By the way, sometimes Kellyanne, the answer was yes. And sometimes it was no, but it's good. It's good to have that report card. So I think that's the other thing to remind listeners is,

There are voters that are undecided. They're undecided about whether to vote. They're thinking about RFK. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns are very sophisticated about knowing who those voters are. So they'll be tracking real time the responses to the debate amongst those cohorts. So they have an immediate sense of whether they improve their cause or set it back.

So I want to unpack a few things because it seems to me that people would like to be brought into the room. I want to do that in a moment. But I can think of two responses that I think didn't go well and went well based on two of the debates you just mentioned. So the first Romney versus Obama debate in 2012, you're running for reelection.

Governor Romney is the Republican nominee. It was a foreign policy debate, as I recall. Governor Romney did very well, but his campaign strategy then was to sit on the quote lead and the lead wasn't real. And what happens if you if you David Bluff in the Obama campaign thinks that you underperformed, you're going to sharpen up for that next debate. You realize that this is all batting average.

And maybe you got a couple singles that night, lost the game narrowly, but acting like Mitt Romney was doing nothing but hitting grand slams or pitching a no-hitter was overly arrogant and frankly overly ignorant about the way we, the people, act.

consider these candidates. And for how long, particularly women, before we cast a vote, we are late in the game deciders because we want to see every, we want every last input into our big voter cauldron from which we make a final choice. So I think the reaction was an overreaction with an underreaction to that particular debate. And then President Obama was able to come back and win. And then I was thinking about that first debate, Hillary versus Donald Trump. I was there

at Hofstra University in around September 26, 2016. I led a prayer behind the scenes right as the debate was starting. I believe Dave Bossie, the deputy campaign manager, was there also. And I just remember President Trump said,

and mr trump said oh i'm about to go out he said later i'm about to go out there and kellyanne wants to pray and i'm thinking does she know something i don't and i guess the power of prayer but anyway it was just funny in that way because he wasn't nervous at all i think that he was kind of excited to get there against hillary but what you just said is true the instant reaction was oh my god hillary cleaned his clock there he shouldn't even be there with her

I looked at it very differently and not just because it was my job as campaign manager to quote spin. I legitimately said, as somebody who had been in debate prep, that Mr. Trump was a gentleman. He was very gracious because he saw Bill Clinton sitting there and he did not go all the way of what was planned if he needed to, which was to talk about the way Hillary had treated

the accusers, not the way Bill Clinton had, but how Hillary had treated the accusers. And he said, you know what? He even said, Hillary, I see your

Your family's sitting here because I believe Chelsea Clinton and Bill Clinton are both there. And I'm not going to say everything I wanted to say. So my big reaction then was he was being a gracious gentleman. He could have gone there. Well, he certainly went there in the second debate. Access Hollywood hits on Friday, October 7th, October 9th, about less than 48 hours later, we're in St. Louis for the second debate. And we had a press conference ahead of time with

some of the Bill Clinton accusers, and frankly, at least one that he paid $800,000 to to settle a lawsuit. And it wasn't about Bill Clinton so much as the way Hillary Clinton had treated those women. So it all changes. I remember Mark Cuban sat in the front row trying to screw with Donald Trump by being a Hillary guest. And the question was, should we have people there to try to screw with Hillary? But it just seemed a little bit immature and a little bit beneath

the process at that point to just not have, you know, family there or close friends there. And of course the advisors, as you know, are in the back. But I just remember during debate prep with President Trump in 2016, Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020, I'd already left the White House, but Chris Christie and I were brought back to do some of that. And I, I just remember my questions were tougher than I thought any moderator could ever actually say publicly.

And I just remember Mr. Trump a couple times saying, are they going to ask me that? I said, well, not really that way. This is the rudest way of possibly asking that question. But you're going to get a question on abortion, on race, on health care, on your comments about X, Y, and Z, the tweet about A, B, and C.

But it may come in 12 different forms. I think that's what's really important. No matter how the question is asked, you immediately identify it as a question on race, a question on abortion, a question on health care, a question on foreign policy, a question on NATO dues. And you give the answer that you want to give about that overall topic. And I think that's important. Last thing I'll say is just see it in all the focus groups in the polling, David. In addition to fairness, I think the big watchword for this election is strength.

And these debates are an opportunity to project strength as a leader, as a commander in chief, as the president of the United States, but also just as as somebody who can perform for 90 minutes. You know, maybe people say, oh, Donald Trump said this and that's not strong. That makes no sense. Or they'll say Biden was physically weak, but he was mentally sharp, whatever they end up saying.

I do believe that these debates are a physical, mental and presidential, meaning your policies, your vision, your accomplishments, tests of strength. Yeah. And that is probably the word that's on many voters minds going into this debate tomorrow. Strength. I mean, the first debate in 2020, that moment where Biden said, well, you just shut up, man. Like it wasn't a policy debate.

But in the research I saw with voters that stood out because, you know, you know, Trump is seen as strong and bombastic. And the fact that Biden said that, I think, helped him. I know I agree strength. I mean, you mentioned the 08 primary debates. You know, the most important one for us probably was before it got down to a two person race. It was when all the candidates were asked about if you knew bin Laden was in office.

Pakistan, would you go get them and not notify the Pakistanis? And Obama was the only candidate to say yes. Right. So even though he's the young, inexperienced senator, it stood out for people. And so that was both differentiation and strength. And so I agree with you. Listen, at the end of the day, Bill Clinton, you know, I think is the he probably didn't coin this term, but he's most famously said.

it's attributed to him that strong is wrong is better than weak and right in a presidential campaign. And so I think that that is important. I think strength in how you deal with your opponent, strength in, by the way, one thing I would mention about this debate, my favorite format for presidential debates is the town hall where the candidates are interacting with average. They're sitting on stools and walking around and you can talk and kind of ask them a follow-up.

We're not going to have that this time, which to me is a tragedy. But it is important. Well, not yet. I'm hoping that September 10th is not the last debate. I agree with you, David, and most people that we should just have more debates. Well, listen, whoever doesn't like their position in the race is going to say, I want three more debates. We know that. But what makes that interesting is, and I don't really like the studio audience debate where it's like, you know, Democratic and Republican officials and donors. But like the town hall one, I've always loved that.

But so now you have a debate without that. I think for both Trump and Biden to bring humanity into their answers is going to be really important, but harder because you're not interacting with a with a, you know, an average voter. But when you're talking about health care, you're talking about the economy, you're talking about education, whatever it is, you've got to like tell stories and you've got to say, I talked to this person in Wisconsin. And that's going to be really interesting to see which which of these candidates, either of these candidates do that better. The other thing I'd say about debate prep is what I learned was

Even when you thought you nailed it, our strategy, our answers. Right. And I agree with you. You've got to put these candidates through their paces and ask them tougher questions. Then they'll get on the debate stage. They don't like it, by the way, but that's how you get somebody ready. Understatement. Yeah, they hate it. They have choice words for you, but you're reminded this is a human exercise.

There's not a single presidential campaign that unfolded exactly as you scripted it. For sure. Right. The moderator asks the question in a different way or your opponent really gets under your skin. And this is what's interesting because Donald Trump is a former president. Joe Biden is an incumbent president. Their records both will be under examination. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 96, no presidential candidate who's an incumbent had a strong first debate.

Jimmy Carter did not. Ronald Reagan did not. George H.W. Bush did not. George W. Bush did not. Barack Obama did not. I think it's fair to say Donald Trump's first debate in 20 was not his strongest. So and part of that, by the way, is, as you know, having worked in the building, these people are busy, like even where they're doing debate prep, like Joe Biden's on the phone all day and doing meetings and Donald Trump was and Barack Obama was. And, you know, they're the president.

So to have somebody across the stage from them, you know, nitpick everything they did and say it was wrong, you know, it really gets under their skin. And that was our big problem in the first debate against Romney is Obama. And we certainly deserve blame for this as a team who prepped him. It was about defending his record, not making a case. And I think that's going to be the thing Joe Biden really has to guard against is this cannot be Donald Trump attack something he did and he spends two minutes defending it.

That is a stone cold loser thing to do. You've got to say, you know what? You're wrong. You know what I did help these people and what you did was wrong. But let me talk about where I want to take the country like that is going to be worth watching because history shows that, again, with that exception in 96, the incumbent president really craps the bed in the first debate.

And what's interesting is we told Barack Obama, we showed him all of those previous debates, which is this happened to all these people. By the way, Ronald Reagan, skilled communicator, George W. Bush, skilled communicator.

And it's going to happen to you if we don't guard against it. And Reagan ended up winning 49 states. Because he bounced back, right? But it was that first debate with Mondale, which really tightened the race, right? And so, right, to your point, you have another opportunity. And for us in 2012, that was key because I agree with you. Romney did not take full advantage of the momentum he had. And we knew we had to get off the mat.

And by the way, we knew if we had had a bad second debate, we might lose that presidential race. Like that second debate mattered a great deal.

So I think that is the other thing, though, I just encourage people to remember is, yeah, there's a lot of strategery, as Karl Rove said, and there's a lot of practicing. But man, once the bell goes off, you've got two human beings up there, two human beings, by the way, who don't like each other. And there's going to be a bunch of stuff, quite frankly, that both campaign teams probably didn't predict that's going to happen. This guy was as cold and calculated as they come. Maybe we weren't going to get it solved.

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You just have a pit in your stomach thinking, how many people are we going to find? New episodes of American Justice are available every Wednesday, wherever you get your podcasts. You know, I think Trump is the insurgent incumbent of sorts this time. He's got the incumbents record of four years. War of change, for sure, yeah. And then, you know, he's definitely the insurgent. He's seen his underdog underestimated. I think he's got the hunger and swagger back, as we've discussed before. Having said that, this is the first time

Where since 2008, 2016, this is the first time really that you don't have somebody challenging you.

a candidate who's got, quote, more experience. I mean, maybe Trump can go that way and say to Biden, as I like to say, you're the Loch Ness Monster of Washington, D.C., of the swamp. You know, you experience in the form of you is staleness, is corruptionist. But we turned Hillary's experience around on her. And I believe that you did, too, in the primaries in 2008. And then it bolstered your ability to turn it

around John McCain, who had been in the Hanoi Hilton for many years, had fought in the war for our freedoms. And so I think people should realize how fraught it is, just congenitally fraught it is to go up against candidates that do have, quote, experience that can say, I was there. I decided on this. I decided on that. But I felt like in 2008, the way you handled it

was by saying in the debate, well, Senator Obama is the only one who would go get Osama bin Laden and not tell Pakistan, oh, and by the way, he's the only one on the stage who didn't vote to authorize the war in Iraq. That was his big thing. He was able to say, I wouldn't have done it because he didn't have a vote. And I think he found a clip or two where as a state senator in Illinois, he said he was against it. And that really helped him at that time. With Hillary, we knew we were up against

The woman who's on the precipice of being the first female president of the United States, a majority of the voters are female. I believe her blue wall was very real. She started out with 264 electoral votes, six tiny little electoral votes away from victory.

And so really just sort of undercutting the experience without attacking her personally at every turn and just saying that experience at her level just becomes like detachment from the people or perhaps corruption or perhaps, you know, she feels like she's next in line, but it's such a delicate balance. As you say, you've got 90 seconds or two minutes, answer the question, defend your record, provide your vision, oh, and cast a little bit of doubt about your opponent.

And it just has to be really tight and really crisp. And I just want to say one last thing about the microphones. I know CNN thinks that they're providing some kind of civic service by muting Donald Trump's microphone. They're doing everybody a favor. He will have plenty of time to talk and he will do that. But at the same time, people like me who want to hear Joe Biden talk, who want that physical, mental, emotional, and presidential fitness test for all of us to see, raw, uncaught, unmanaged,

unfiltered so that the new soundbite of the week deep fakes with these videos that we know what we see. I can't wait to have Joe Biden speak and to have the only microphone on because numbers numb him. He said once like 150 million Americans had died through firearms. God forbid, that's not true. Thank God. Let Joe Biden speak. That is my main piece of advice. And I think CNN

in believing they were too cute by half is doing those of us who want Joe Biden to speak a big favor. Well, my hope is this then is a careful what you wish for moment where Biden exceeds expectations, right? And I think-

Donald Trump is basically lowering expectations for Joe Biden. But I think more importantly, voters are saying, you know, we're not sure he can make it through 90 minutes. So if he does well, and I think he's capable of doing it, it's going to be a test for sure. He's going to really improve his position in the race. I do think your point about experience, I thought those were the strongest moments in the 16 debates for Trump. They certainly were for us in 08, both primary and general, which is

You need to look at experience not based on length of Washington resume, right, but based on life experience. And and obviously, Trump has less time in Washington than Biden, but he is a former president. So I think he while he might have more of a case to be an outsider, he's it's going to be different because he was a one term president. He's got a record record.

And so I think that this is fascinating in that regard, where I think it's going to be a little harder for him to make the outsider cases sweepingly effective as he did in 16. But we'll see. But again, for Biden, I think if voters leave this debate saying,

He was stronger than I thought he was going to be more cogent than I thought he'd be. There was no major slip ups. I think that's going to go a long way to tightening this race even more. But let me ask you a question, Kelly, because I think there's a belief that this is a momentous moment in the campaign and in the country's history. And I very well think it is.

But there's also a chance that basically nothing really changes, right? Right. You know, maybe they're both okay. They both make a mistake, like, and voters are like, okay. And I think the point you made is that may make some voters who aren't sure they're going to vote more inclined not to vote. And that definitely will affect this race. But what about that? Which is, I think there's always a belief that this is going to fundamentally alter the race. Like either Biden's going to do worse than expectations and that'll solidify Trump's

position or Biden exceeds expectations and he's going to take a lead. But there's also a chance that basically the race is static. And then I guess that makes that September 10th debate really the last big moment, if it is the last debate. Well, but we have the two party conventions in between, and that will be something Milwaukee. Less significant, I think. But yes, yes. But you basically have the week to yourself. You know, you do have the other side trying to spin away what's been said and fact check the speeches and whatnot. And

and do what they do. And the conventions are a month apart. The Republican convention is very early. It's mid-July. And then the Democratic convention, I believe, starts around August 19th. So we do have those. And who knows? It used to be called the October surprise. I think now it's like pick a month, any month surprise in politics, in our culture. But you make a very good point, which is the fixed opinions of Joe Biden and Donald Trump are

are run so deeply among so many Americans, negatively or positively. Very few people feel neutrally about Donald Trump or Joe Biden. And neutrality is really where you get a lot of these disengaged, low propensity, I'm on the fence, I'm going to wait till the very end voters. So one would think just definitionally and structurally, David, this wouldn't necessarily move the race one way or the other.

If Biden has, you know, a few senior moments or if he, you know, if I were Biden, I would just say, listen, I agree to debate, but debating is not my forte. Being a great president that cares about people and a legislator for half a century and a public servant, that's my forte. So I'm not going to come up with the best word. I'm not going to do cartwheels on the stage. I mean, there's something to that. I just think he's too proud to say that.

And when candidates are too proud, they kind of screw up. I just wanted to go back to a couple other debates. You said no people in the audience this time. You like the town hall format. So do I. But boy, is it fraught. 1992, incumbent president George Herbert Walker Bush at that debate in Richmond where the young African-American girl, I don't even know if she was 18. I don't know if she was able to vote yet. I don't know her age, but she was young. And she stood up and asked a beautiful, simple question. And she just asked President George Herbert Walker Bush,

How does what you do in your life affect me? How will it help me? Something to that effect. And he just started talking about going to a black church with Barbara. And if you're saying that wealthy people can't really connect with you, it was, oh my God. And then he was caught looking at his watch. And Bill Clinton got as close to that young woman as he could without dissembling his microphone.

And basically looked her in the eye and felt her pain, quote unquote. So it's, it's a great, it's another way to show man experience is detachment and, you know, a little, maybe not corruption, but corrosion. And, and, and people should just go back and see like, these are, these can be game changing moments. I just feel with Trump and Biden, people are so dug in on both of them one way or the other that it may not matter. Now, I think the risk for Biden is,

is that it's what we've seen, obviously, some malfunctions here and there. But I think the risk is also so obsessed with Donald Trump, the way so many of his supporters are, that he makes the debate about Trump where the debate really has to be about the people who are watching. And I feel like if he's robotically programmed to have three buttons, button one, abortion, button two, January 6th, button three, Trump, Trump, Trump,

Trump's ready for that. And the people have already heard that. They can just read articles. They can listen to White House press briefings. They can watch the president out in the stump. They can listen to cable news chats. So for me, it has to be the old guy has to come up with something fresh and new and different that makes you say, aha, okay, well, that's respectful to the voters. That acknowledges that young people

are suffering. They don't know when they're going to buy their first home. They're upset about Hamas and Israel. Whatever the case is, I feel like he actually can't play it safe. Biden needs to do something a little bit different, not crazy and out of character, but just a little bit something different, maybe a little bit more humbler than we've been seeing. Well, I think, again, I think the benefit for Biden is expectations are low. So if he, before we get into what he says, how he says it, right? So if he's got strength and he's

animated and animated on behalf of people, not on himself. Like, I think it's a danger for both of these candidates, which is you're in a studio with each other and moderators and

But you've got to bring the American people into the debate, right? You've got to basically be a tribune for them. And I think Biden has some strength at that. He's always done, I think, a good job of talking about how he sees the economy through the lens of working people and nurses and tradesmen and women. But I think that the trap for Biden, I think, is to defend his record. That's the most important. I do think you've got to drive a contrast. I think both of these candidates do a good job of saying, hey,

I don't agree with what my opponent either did or wants to do. Let me tell you why I think that's going to hurt people and what I'm going to do is going to help people. I think there's, you got to make it big.

I think Biden probably, abortion is going to play a role. I think democracy will play a role. Climate change will play a role. Obviously, the economy and inflation will play a role. The Supreme Court will play a role. But I think at the end of the day, the challenge for an incumbent is to not view this as a chance to defend everything you did. That takes enormous discipline.

To basically let some things that really get under your skin. By the way, even though Trump is the challenger, he's a former president. So there's going to be moments where I think Biden may say things about what Trump did in office that the smart thing for Trump to do is basically, you know, I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole. You know, I'm going to talk about what I want to talk about. So that's, I think, from a from a preparation standpoint, important.

Such an important thing. And you mentioned that Trump's going to be ready for things as will Biden. That's the other thing I think it's important for people to understand. In preparation, it's important to understand you're not playing checkers, you're playing chess. This is not shooting free throws to use a basketball analogy. You've got an opponent. So as you're prepping, you've got to say, well, I'm going to give this answer, but my opponent's going to then respond with this.

So how do I either surprise them or put it in a way they might not have heard? That's super important part of prep, right? At least at the ones I was involved with was you got to spend as much attention on what your opponent's going to say. How are they going to say things? Could they freshen something up so that you're ready for that? Because again, you may even give a strong answer.

But if your opponent gives a stronger answer during that segment, they win the exchange. No, it's so true. And in this case, I'm sure, I mean, I've got to believe that the Biden camp is not just rewatching the debates between Biden and Trump of 2020, David, but also Trump before that in 2016. But they're probably also watching what he's doing in these rallies, his TV interviews. You have to do that. And I can say one thing the Trump campaign responded to with alacrity recently and clarity and accuracy was that

the Biden folks trying to take credit for $35 insulin for seniors. I worked on that with Seema Verma, the director of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. We had a Rose Garden ceremony of May in 2020 during COVID.

where the major manufacturers of insulin, three of them came. That woman named Tracy was remarkable. She spoke from the Rose Garden. She heads up a trade association for people who suffer from diabetes. So that's good to sort of say, well, wait a second, you're lying about how that actually happened. Those moments are important. But I think what's really important is to make sure that you don't get caught up on your opponent's

one gaffe or one glitch or one this or the other, because then you look petty. You don't look presidential. Then you look like you're trying to, it's he said, he said. And so if there's too much focus on what we can all see, Joe Biden's lost a couple steps as his, I think his vice presidential debate opponent in 2012, Paul Ryan said recently on Fox News. If there's too much emphasis on that,

And not enough emphasis on the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan or the fact that we've got people crossing over the border now and raping and murdering Americans who are here illegally on Joe Biden's watch. If there's not enough focus on the fact that a poll came out just last week saying that half of Americans say they're just struggling to keep up financially, they're not trying to afford luxury items, they're trying to get bacon and eggs.

for their family. So focusing on the substance, I believe transports these candidates to the cappuccino counters, to the kitchen tables, to the water coolers, proverbially, and mimics the conversation that we're all having. That's a substantive conversation about policy. If it's too much about style and not enough about substance, if it's too much personality and not enough policy, you're not winning new voters. And in fact, you may be further alienating them.

Yeah, well, by the way, but, you know, Joe Biden did get the insulin deal done. I don't think it would be smart for Donald Trump to spend a lot of time, you know, disputing that. He can say I worked on it, too. But again, I think you want to focus on a debate like at the end of the day, where are the most fruitful areas from a contrast standpoint, from a positive standpoint? I think that would be playing Joe Biden's game.

I do think Donald Trump has also lost a step or two, and I'm not sure that's fully priced into the calculation. Now, we'll see. He struggled with teleprompters, even in some interviews. If he were to somehow have a moment or two where people scratch their heads,

I think that could be significant. I'm not suggesting that's going to happen. Right. But I think voters, for whatever reason, and I understand, you know, Joe Biden is 81, Donald Trump, 78. So they're very close in age. But at the end of the day, if after 90 minutes, there is a view that either Joe Biden performed much better, again, less even on what the substance, but on the performance, you know, energy, strength, passion, confidence.

I think that will surprise some voters and I think there could be some upside for Biden.

But if Trump were to stumble a little bit and Kelly and he has done that recently where he's really had trouble with pronunciation, you know, he's talking about things that are clearly. How many more words does Donald Trump speak in a given week than Joe Biden publicly? I mean, it's not even close. All that matters is these voters. All that matters is these 90 minutes. So, again, I think there is a dynamic here, which is, yes, there's rightly going to be attention on voters have concerns about Biden's age.

And he's got to address those. No question about that.

But I do think there's voters who really aren't tuning into every Trump speech, who if they see some slippage there, it could be very damaging. So we'll see. I'm sure that the team's aware of that. You know, Donald Trump obviously is like a feral beast. So there's the way he performs out on a rally, I think, betrays energy, which may be a little bit harder when he's just behind a podium. So we'll see. I think it's going to be fascinating. It very well may be that neither of these candidates has what we might call a senior moment or a big gaffe.

And it will come down to who won the big exchanges, right? On abortion, on inflation, on immigration. If one of them were to have a major moment where they pause, where they kind of forget what they were saying, where they misspeak, you know, that could be the moment that kind of lives after the debate. So I just don't think we know and campaigns need to prepare for all that, right? You're right. You go into the spin room with like,

Like, here's what happened tonight, almost regardless of what happened. But the reality does intrude. And so you're going to have to be really fast to react to that, I think, in the hours and days after the debate. Yeah, I just can't imagine one 90 minute debate is going to move these polls that show double digit advantage for President Trump over Biden on the question of.

which one do you think has the energy to do the job? That's not going to change. But look, the fundamentals underneath really are about policy. I feel people would look past Joe Biden's obvious and very obvious to your former boss recently, President Obama, obvious physical, if not mental deficits. I think they look past that. If we had a great economy, if the border were secure, if we weren't in two new wars abroad, if people did not feel like crime

that's rising in our cities is affecting them. If, if our schools really did teach everybody according to their humanity and dignity and provide them with their, their right to a quality affordable education, worthy of their futures. I think if things were going better, David, people will look past a lot. So the question for Joe Biden and his, and his camp, whether it's the debate or outside the debate, particularly after the first debate is, is,

Are voters talking about his energy and age as an excuse or as a reason? And that's a big question for them because people will excuse it if you if they feel like you're going to help their pocketbooks. That's why I hope President Trump says, listen, in 2019, pre-COVID, we had the highest per capita household income ever.

in our nation's history, here are the stats. And a rising tide lifted all boats. African-Americans, Hispanics, and young people remember that or they believe that. And that's why they're supporting me now more than they did last time and more than, you know, and it should scare you, Joe, union households and some groups of women. And however the case is, I hope he sticks to the substance because I believe binary choice of policy versus policy and the polls reflect this with very few exceptions.

The issue set favors Trump. And so I hope it's a policy debate, but don't believe me. Believe the people. People in this country are suffering and they want solutions. They already know what the problems are. They want substance, not style. They want specifics, not pablum. I'm very critical.

2022, all the Republicans that couldn't finish their sentences, inflation, crime, Putin, Biden, dementia. Those are not those are barely words. They're certainly not sentences. So being able to finish the sentence and respect and reflect the will of the people right now, which is to say, fix the damn border, fix the economy, fix the Middle East. What's going on in Ukraine? Fix our cities. Everywhere they look, they feel like there's chaos and crisis, not in a tweet or under wing of Air Force One.

but in our actual communities, in our colleges, universities, in high schools, abroad, here at home, in our pocketbooks, in our personal liberties, I hope is a substantive conversation. I'm looking forward to it. Well, I would say this, this is a very close race. And so I think if

The world, or as you just described it, you know, Trump should be winning by 20 points. He's not. Not in our divided country. Well, but I do think this is going to be a test, which is I don't think that if people after next Thursday night feel a little bit more uneasy about the return of Trump, the drama, if he's not very substantive, if it's a lot of attacks, you know,

I think that is going to set him back because I'm not sure that's fully priced into the equation. I think Joe Biden needs to do a very good job of talking about what he's done on the economy, what he's done in terms of investments. We have the lowest rate of health care and insurance in the country's history. Crime is dramatically falling. We had a crime wave under Trump in 2020. There's a lot that Biden can say.

But at the end of the day, we're burning and looting. Well, listen, at the end of the day, things are moving in a positive direction. I think Joe Biden has a lot of positive things to say about that. But he also has to paint the picture of if Trump comes in, he's going to be focused on retribution and revenge. He wants to get rid of the income tax, which will devastate our economy. He wants to get rid of the tax on tips.

Well, no, he's talking about getting rid of the income tax and putting in some crazy high tariffs. No tariffs. I mean, at the end of the day,

I think that Biden needs to take a picture that Trump's return is not going to be good for you or your family. It's not going to help you. The things I'm focused on well, and I will say that while Trump has an advantage on some issues, and I don't deny that, and I wish that weren't the case, on the question of like, who cares about you and your family, that is still an area of strength for Biden. And I think it's something he can improve on. But it's nowhere near, David, levels of an Obama or a Bill Clinton.

Well, no. But in 2012, you know, we had a narrow lead on Romney on that in the beginning. We built that. And that was something that was very important to us. That's what we watched. And again, I think the most important thing for Biden is you look at that, the voters who are currently voting Democrat for Senate and House who aren't for him. You want to track that carefully post-debate. Did we make progress? And then there are some of these younger voters of color who aren't

100% committed to Trump, but they're flirting with Trump, right? Did I get some of those back? And I'm sure Trump's going to look at that as well. He's going to look at those voters and measure. I think for Trump, the question would be, can he convince people that, listen, he's never going to say because he has a healthy ego, he's not going to admit mistakes. He's not going to say he's going to do things differently.

He's not going to say those words, but if he gives the impression that he was very focused on, let me tell you in my in my next term what I would do on the economy, on health care and education. Like if he's relentless about that and I have huge doubts whether he could. But if he does, that would be the smartest strategy. If he gives people the sense that, well, Biden saying he's going to be focused on revenge and retribution, but he didn't really talk about any of that stuff.

You know, he kind of stuck to issues if he does that. And again, he's going to obviously take issue with things Biden's done and immigration inflation. That's going to come. But if he then kind of pivots to like, let me tell you what I'm going to do about it. And because I think there is a risk for him if it's only about what his first term was like, you know, voters care about their future. They don't care about politicians pasts.

And so that's, you know, you asked my advice to Trump. That would be what it is, right? To basically, yes, you're going to prosecute whatever the argument is against Biden.

Do a little bit about what I did, but say what I want to focus on tonight is what I'm going to do for you. Right. And if he does that, by the way, I think Biden needs to do that as well. But if Trump were to do that, I think he would profit from that. Well, my advice to Joe Biden would be to get a doctor's note and excuse my absence for not showing up for the debate. I'm surprised they agreed to this. I'm surprised they agreed to 90 minutes. No notes.

not being able to talk to your campaign team in between or even a family member, no live audience. But if he can't, if he actually needs to show up and debate, I would ask President Biden very politely to not lie this time. It was the debate stage where he lied about not talking to his son, Hunter Biden, about his business dealings. We know that's not true through Hunter's own laptop. He quoted the 51 national security officials.

experts, all of whom beclown themselves and none of whom have apologized for doing so by saying that Hunter Biden's laptop had the earmarks of Russia disinformation, because whenever you want to undercut Trump and his victories, you've got to bring in Russia, Russia, Russia. So I hope that when President Biden returns to the scene of the crime where he lied, he can at least clarify those lies, because 17% of people told pollsters after the fact that they would have changed their vote.

from Biden if they knew that that was all true. And he lied about it. The New York Post was censored by Twitter for two weeks for telling the truth. And this is problematic. We need him to clarify all that because his son is his son in that laptop, which has been verified as true by Joe Biden's own Department of Justice now.

And it's the subject of a federal investigation. The guy just got convicted, felonies in Delaware. We actually saw a case with evidence. And now he's going to be sentenced in California. These are not small things. But the reason I'm mentioning it in the context of the debate, David, is because it was on that debate stage that the lies flew for the first time. Well, listen, talking about lies, I think in the first debate, Donald Trump said Roe is not on the ballot.

Donald Trump told the American people Roe's not on the ballot. You have nothing on the ballot. It's not. Well, it was he won. He appointed Supreme Court justices that overturned Roe v. Wade. So to me, that's going to be much more. It's not a lie. It's not on the ballot. Maybe it's on people's minds, but it's not on the ballot. But, you know, Hunter Biden, to the extent this comes up, I think Trump would be crazy to spend a lot of time on this. But if he does, which is, hey, here's the difference between us. You got convicted of 34 felony counts and you're saying it's rigged.

And what you want is a Department of Justice that does your bidding. My son just got convicted and I respect that. And he's still under investigation and I'm not going to interfere. Like to me, this could be a good moment because it speaks to a fundamental difference about respect for the rule of law and an independent judiciary. I hope Joe Biden says that. But if you thought that was a good debate point, this whole convicted felon thing that looked like

The sweet song you all need to beat Trump. I hardly hear it anymore. It's now his he's losing a couple of steps or they're really the same age. I mean, you can't decide how the hell you're going to beat Donald Trump. And it's weird because it was just an article that a lot of the Democratic insiders are telling the Biden campaign, stop with this democracy stuff. Stop attacking Donald Trump's character. You're making him bigger.

And so, but then you can't, then you're overdoing abortion over here. You're overdoing January 6th over there. You're overdoing Donald Trump's age over here and him mispronouncing one word or one person's name in the millions of words he speaks more than Joe Biden week by week. So David, you're a smart person. You helped elect an outsider president. I'm sure it's not fun to have to defend this guy, but guess what?

What is I mean, what would you tell Joe Biden to do? What's the best what's the best way to go after Donald Trump?

a department of justice that will do his bidding. He's been very clear about that. He's been very clear about that. Project 2025, his criticism of his attorney generals when he was president, like he wanted people to be his personal attorney. Like where's my Roy Cohn? Joe Biden lying on a debate stage. Well, Joe, again, I think that Joe Biden has an opportunity because clearly you said he shouldn't even show up. Donald Trump saying he's going to be a disaster. The expectations being set.

are very low. And I think he's got a low bar. And I think if he exceeds them in energy, in drive, in holding Donald Trump to account where he's got weaknesses, I think Joe Biden can come out of this debate where the race won't be fundamentally changed. And it's really important. Listen, right now, if the election were held tomorrow, I think Donald Trump would probably win a narrow victory, not a huge victory, a narrow victory. So it's within Joe Biden's power

to change that. And I think the big thing is there's two things. How do people feel about the economy as they cast their vote? Right. That's going to be super important. But do they feel that Joe Biden is up to this? And if he answers that call in these two debates and by the way, like for everybody to see, they'll make their own judgment. Right. There's no spin. People make their own judgment. But at the end of the day, I think it is Donald Trump's positions that

not his gaffes and clearly some slippage that he's experiencing both physically and mentally that will make the difference in this race. I think Joe Biden's got to paint a picture of when you cast that ballot,

You do it with a searing understanding that Donald Trump could be sitting back behind the Oval Office. By the way, maybe enough voters will choose that. But I think that's the picture you have to paint. So we'll see. It's going to be fascinating. Well, tune into the debate. And I think we'll obviously be unpacking, you know, the first debate in its aftermath and talk about it from the

perspective of two people who understand the electorate and, you know, where campaigns did well, where they did poorly and how they're recovering from it. Because I think these two debates are the most important moments. I agree the conventions then are secondary, but they are just part of the fabric of the campaign, right? So,

I'm sure both Biden and Trump will go out the next day and do interviews and events. And how do they pick up momentum on something that went well, try and basically remediate something that didn't go well, change the topic if they had a bad debate. It's going to be fascinating to see. So we'll help unpack all of that. I think we both agree, David, it'll be a fascinating debate and that people should tune in. I would tell people 90 minutes is nothing. So if you can download it, if you can't catch it live, download it, listen, watch for yourself while you're

Doing household stuff, working, working out, driving, listen to that debate. It's important that we all participate in our democracy. I'm very glad we share expertise as two people, David Plouffe and I, who have been in the room for debate prep and for those actual debates, feet away from our candidates as they perform their debates in 2008, 2012, and 2016 and beyond.

telling you what we think there's worth keeping an eye on, especially what story social media begins to pipe out after the debate. For myself, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Thank you for listening to this edition of The Campaign Managers. And remember, it's easy to be enraged. It's essential to be engaged. We'll see you next time. Have a great week and everybody make sure you tune in Thursday night or record it, watch it in its entirety if you can over the coming days.