cover of episode January Inflation: Why Prices Are Rising Again

January Inflation: Why Prices Are Rising Again

2023/2/15
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C
Colin Roche
T
Taylor Schulte
创立Stay Wealthy和Define Financial，专注于无佣金退休规划和财务教育。
Topics
Taylor Schulte：本期节目讨论了一月份的通货膨胀报告。报告显示，与预期相反，一月份通货膨胀上升，消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨0.5%。节目探讨了物价上涨的原因、报告的积极和消极方面以及对长期通胀趋势的影响。Schulte 解释了通货膨胀的概念、CPI 报告的含义以及月度物价上涨与长期趋势之间的区别。他还分析了报告中能源和住房价格上涨对 CPI 的影响，以及同比通胀率下降的积极意义。Schulte 指出，尽管月度通胀数据有所上升，但同比通胀率有所下降，并且与几年前相比，通胀率已大幅下降。他提醒听众，物价上涨是正常的，并且通胀数据是滞后的，不能预测未来。最后，Schulte 讨论了强劲的就业市场对通胀的影响，以及美联储为控制通胀而采取的措施。 Colin Roche：Roche 对一月份的通货膨胀报告发表了自己的看法。他认为，通胀正在朝着正确的方向发展，但速度太慢，物价比预期更具粘性。他指出，住房数据滞后，业主等值租金（CPI 的住房衡量指标）同比增长 7.8%，过高且滞后。然而，实时住房和租金数据显示价格趋于缓和，这预示着下半年通胀将下降。他还预测美联储可能将隔夜利率提高到 5%，并在今年剩余时间保持不变。这将导致国库券和现金收益良好，但借贷成本将长期保持较高水平。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The episode discusses the unexpected increase in inflation in January, focusing on the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for consumers and the economy.

Shownotes Transcript

Today I’m addressing the January inflation report.

In fact, contrary to expectations, inflation increased last month.

Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.5% after increasing by only 0.1% in December. 

  • Why are prices increasing again?
  • Was the report positive or negative?
  • What does this mean for the long-term inflation trend?

 

I’m answering these questions + we have a special guest that drops by to share his thoughts.

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