cover of episode Note from Elie 11/22: The Trump Hush Money Case Nears its Sorry End

Note from Elie 11/22: The Trump Hush Money Case Nears its Sorry End

2024/11/22
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Elie Honig
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Elie Honig对Matt Gaetz的提名表示担忧，认为其提名失败是不可避免的，因为关于他的不当行为的指控不断被披露。他对Pam Bondi的提名看法较为复杂，虽然她具备资格，但其否认2020年大选结果以及与特朗普基金会的捐款行为引发了对其信誉和独立性的质疑，但他预测她的提名将会获得通过。在特朗普封口费案上，Honig认为曼哈顿地区检察官对特朗普的指控毫无意义且最终会失败，检察官提出的推迟量刑至2029年的请求荒谬可笑。他详细分析了该案的法律理论和政治影响，认为该案存在诸多问题，其法律理论牵强，并且该案的起诉对特朗普的政治形象反而有利。他还分析了地方检察官在政治驱动下起诉案件的现象，认为曼哈顿地区检察官Alvin Bragg起诉特朗普的封口费案是政治行为，并且该案对特朗普的政治形象反而有利，最终不会对特朗普造成实质性影响，虽然Bragg是他的朋友和前同事，但他认为Bragg起诉此案与政治因素脱不了干系。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the Manhattan DA's office suggest postponing Trump's sentencing until 2029?

The DA's office argued that Trump's sentencing should be postponed while they litigate constitutional immunity and other issues related to his status as president-elect. They suggested sentencing could occur after his potential second term in 2029, though this is legally unprecedented and practically absurd.

What are the legal and practical issues with postponing Trump's sentencing until 2029?

New York law requires sentencing without undue delay, and there is no precedent for postponing sentencing for over four years after a conviction. By 2029, many factors, including the health and roles of key figures, could change, making the suggestion impractical and legally dubious.

Why was the hush money case against Trump considered problematic?

The case was legally inventive, combining expired state misdemeanors with a federal campaign finance violation to create a state-level felony. It was rejected by federal authorities and the FEC, and the star witness, Michael Cohen, was deemed problematic. No other state prosecutor has charged a federal campaign finance crime in state court.

How did the hush money case impact Alvin Bragg's political standing?

Despite the case's failure, Bragg gained 100% name recognition and is likely to be reelected in heavily Democratic Manhattan. The case, however, also played into Trump's narrative of persecution, potentially aiding Trump's political comeback.

Why did Trump benefit from the hush money case?

The case's legal contortions and eventual failure bolstered Trump's narrative of being unfairly targeted, which likely helped him in the 2024 Republican primary. The case had little impact on the general populace, as evidenced by Trump's improved performance in Manhattan during the election.

Chapters
This segment discusses the failed nomination of Matt Gaetz and the subsequent nomination of Pam Bondi as Attorney General. It highlights concerns about Bondi's credibility and independence based on her past actions and political alignments.
  • Failed nomination of Matt Gaetz due to ethics concerns
  • Nomination of Pam Bondi as Attorney General
  • Concerns about Bondi's credibility and independence
  • Analysis of Bondi's qualifications and political implications

Shownotes Transcript

Elie Honig is a former Assistant U.S. Attorney and co-chief of the organized crime unit at the Southern District of New York, where he prosecuted more than 100 mobsters, including members of La Cosa Nostra, and the Gambino and Genovese crime families. He went on to serve as Director of the Department of Law and Public Safety at New Jersey Division of Criminal Justice. He is currently Special Counsel at Lowenstein Sandler and a CNN legal analyst. 

For a transcript of Elie’s note and the full archive of contributor notes, head to CAFE.com.

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