cover of episode 2024 Is a Fight to Define the Next Political Order

2024 Is a Fight to Define the Next Political Order

2024/11/1
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Ezra Klein
一位深受欢迎的美国记者、政治分析师和《纽约时报》专栏作家，通过其《The Ezra Klein Show》podcast 探讨各种社会和政治问题。
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Gary Gerstle
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Ezra Klein：2024年美国大选的核心问题是关于选举合法性、政府权力和政治制度的根本性分歧。然而，在对华政策、外包和医疗等问题上，两党也展现出新的共识。本文探讨了历史学家Gary Gerstle提出的政治秩序概念，并以此分析当前美国政治的现状和未来走向。 Gary Gerstle：政治秩序是指一个政党在数十年间主导政治，形成广泛共识的现象。20世纪美国经历了新政秩序和新自由主义秩序。新政秩序的形成与冷战密切相关，共和党为了应对共产主义威胁，做出了重大让步。新自由主义秩序的兴起则与新左翼运动对大政府的批判以及苏联解体后市场经济的扩张有关。2008年金融危机标志着新自由主义秩序的终结，新的政治秩序正在形成，两党在对华政策、产业政策和道德伦理等问题上展现出新的共识。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the Republican Party eventually acquiesce to the New Deal order?

Fear of communism and the Cold War threat led Republicans to support progressive taxation and social programs to demonstrate American superiority.

What were the key factors that led to the end of the New Deal order?

Racial conflicts, the Vietnam War, and the economic recession of the 1970s undermined the New Deal consensus.

How did the collapse of the Soviet Union influence neoliberalism in the U.S.?

The Soviet collapse validated free market thinking and accelerated the IT revolution, fueling neoliberal ideology.

What role did Jimmy Carter play in the transition to neoliberalism?

Carter, influenced by Ralph Nader, initiated deregulation and smaller government policies, preceding Bill Clinton's full embrace of neoliberalism.

How did the 2008 financial crisis impact the neoliberal order?

The crisis exposed corrupt banking practices and highlighted economic inequality, leading to scrutiny of neoliberal policies.

What new zones of agreement have emerged in American politics?

Agreements on China, tariffs, antitrust, and industrial policy show bipartisan convergence, breaking from neoliberal principles.

How has China influenced the current political landscape in the U.S.?

China's economic rise and technological advancements have led both parties to prioritize industrial policy and fair trade over free markets.

What moral shifts are occurring in American politics?

There is a growing skepticism of individualism and a push for a more moral economic foundation, challenging neoliberal values.

Chapters
The concept of a political order is introduced as a framework that lasts beyond particular elections, involving a constellation of policies, constituencies, and institutions that dominate politics for extended periods. The discussion focuses on the New Deal and neoliberal orders, their ideologies, and the factors that shaped them.
  • Political orders last 30-40 years and involve a constellation of policies and institutions.
  • The New Deal order was shaped by the Great Depression and the fear of communism, leading to a grand compromise between capital and labor.
  • The neoliberal order emerged in the 1970s, advocating for deregulation and free markets.

Shownotes Transcript

Our politics are increasingly divided on fundamental issues like the legitimacy of elections and the nature and integrity of the basic systems of American government. That’s the most important fact of this election. But strange new zones of agreement have been emerging, too — on China, outsourcing and health care. What should we make of that?

In his book “The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order)” the historian Gary Gerstle describes these shifts in consensus in terms of political orders — these eras that stretch for decades, when both parties come to accept a certain set of ideas. In this conversation he walks me through the political, economic and social factors that shaped two political orders in the last century: the New Deal order and the neoliberal order. And we apply this lens to what’s happening in our politics right now.

It may seem strange to take a step back in time right before the election. But I think Gerstle’s framework helps uncover an overlooked dimension of the 2024 race and where politics might go next.

Book Recommendations:

The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory) by Tim Alberta

Underground Asia) by Tim Harper

The Known Citizen) by Sarah E. Igo

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected].

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast). Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs).

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Annie Galvin. Fact0checking by Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our supervising editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Rollin Hu, Elias Isquith, Michelle Harris and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

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