cover of episode You Can't Outrun Voters' Feelings About The Economy

You Can't Outrun Voters' Feelings About The Economy

2024/11/6
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The NPR Politics Podcast

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D
Deirdre Walsh
F
Franco Ordoñez
S
Susan Davis
T
Tamara Keith
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Susan Davis:民调预测本届大选结果将非常接近,但实际结果却是共和党取得了自2004年以来最显著的胜利,特朗普的胜选幅度远超预期。特朗普声称自己获得了民意授权,并计划在短期内优先实施一些关键政策,例如关闭边境和恢复能源勘探,其主要目标是推翻拜登政府的政策,并恢复其第一任期结束时的状态。哈里斯在许多州的表现都逊于拜登在2020年的表现,这表明民主党联盟出现了问题。美国政治在过去十几年里经历了剧烈的波动,这导致了选民对执政党的强烈反弹。哈里斯未能将自己与拜登区分开来,这导致选民选择了变革。 Franco Ordoñez:特朗普在政治上几乎势不可挡,他将带着明确的议程和经验重返白宫。特朗普拥有丰富的经验,这将使他能够迅速实施其政策,例如在第一任期内实施旅行禁令的经验。然而,他的移民政策面临着实际和政治上的挑战,大规模驱逐出境政策在操作和政治上都面临着巨大的挑战。民权组织将准备对特朗普政府的政策采取法律行动。特朗普改变了美国政治的游戏规则,他证明了基层导向的竞选策略也能获胜,并且能够吸引选民忽视他的丑闻和指控。特朗普的胜利是美国政治史上最令人震惊的复出之一。 Deirdre Walsh:共和党在本次选举中获得了压倒性胜利,在参议院获得了多数席位,这将使他们能够迅速推进特朗普的政策议程,甚至可能在第一天就确认特朗普的内阁人选。共和党计划迅速恢复特朗普2017年的减税政策,并实施更多减税措施。共和党预计将维持其在众议院的微弱多数,并有信心推动保守政策,他们将能够在没有妥协的情况下推动保守政策,众议院和参议院将通过一系列保守政策。现在的共和党比2017年更加以特朗普为中心。 Tamara Keith:哈里斯在女性选民中的表现不如希拉里和拜登,这令民主党人震惊。哈里斯的竞选策略未能有效争取郊区选民和摇摆不定的共和党选民。许多选民能够同时支持堕胎权利和共和党候选人,这给民主党敲响了警钟。民主党低估了选民对经济问题的强烈不满。民主党在选举失利后保持沉默,这表明他们需要进行深刻的反思,需要重新审视其信息和领导层,寻找新的领导人和信息传递者。民主党内部对选举失利的原因存在不同的观点,需要对选举失利进行反思。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Kamala Harris underperform in the election despite focusing on key Democratic base groups?

Harris failed to separate herself from Biden, didn't articulate clear differences in policy, and underestimated economic concerns, which overshadowed issues like abortion rights.

How did Trump's campaign strategy differ from traditional Republican campaigns?

Trump ran a base-focused campaign without a traditional RNC-driven ground game, relying on his core supporters rather than broad appeal.

What key demographic shift contributed to Trump's victory in 2024?

Latino men, who had supported Biden in 2020, swung significantly towards Trump, influenced by concerns about border security and economic competition.

What immediate policy actions can we expect from Trump's administration?

Trump plans to close the border, resume drilling, unwind Biden's climate policies, and impose tariffs on adversaries and allies, potentially ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Why did the Democratic Party struggle to maintain its coalition in the 2024 election?

The party failed to address economic concerns effectively, leading to a softening of support among core groups like women and suburban voters.

How did Trump's experience from his first term influence his second campaign?

Trump entered his second term with a clear agenda, more political experience, and a desire to undo Biden's policies, making him a more formidable candidate.

What challenges might Trump face in implementing his immigration policies?

Operational and political challenges include the cost and manpower required for mass deportations, potential public resistance, and legal battles from civil rights groups.

How did the Republican Party change between Trump's first and second victories?

The party became more aligned with Trump's agenda, with fewer moderates and more candidates endorsed by Trump, leading to a more unified and conservative legislative agenda.

Why did the emphasis on abortion rights fail to mobilize the expected voter turnout for Democrats?

Voters prioritized economic issues over social issues like abortion, leading to a disconnect between the Democratic campaign focus and voter concerns.

What does Trump's victory mean for the future of American politics?

It signals a shift towards more base-focused campaigns and challenges traditional political norms, suggesting a need for parties to reconsider their strategies and appeal.

Chapters
Trump's second term promises aggressive policy changes, focusing on undoing Biden's policies, energy exploration, and immigration reforms.
  • Trump plans to close the border and resume drilling on his first day.
  • He aims to gut Biden's climate subsidies and address inflation through energy policies.
  • Mass deportations and aggressive foreign policy changes are also on the agenda.

Shownotes Transcript

Donald Trump is heading back to the Oval Office, according to the Associated Press. Vice President Harris failed to overcome the drawbacks of being part of a deeply unpopular administration.This episode: political correspondent Susan Davis, campaign correspondent Franco Ordoñez, congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh, and senior white House correspondent Tamara Keith.*The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at *plus.npr.org/politics).Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)