What Early Voting Can — And Cannot — Tell Us
2024/10/29
The NPR Politics Podcast
A
Ashley Lopez
M
Miles Parks
S
Stephen Fowler
Ashley Lopez, Miles Parks和Stephen Fowler讨论了2024年提前投票的趋势，并分析了这些趋势对选举结果和选举工作人员的影响。他们指出，2024年的提前投票模式与2020年相比有所不同，2020年的数据更像是异常值。虽然2024年的提前投票总人数低于2020年，但许多州的提前到场投票人数创下历史新高，这表明人们正在从邮寄投票转向亲自投票。他们还分析了不同州的投票规则和提前投票的便利性差异，以及这些差异对提前投票数据解读的影响。此外，他们还讨论了提前投票对选举工作人员的影响，以及共和党和民主党在提前投票策略上的差异。
Miles Parks分析了2020年和2024年提前投票数据的差异，指出2020年数据更像是异常值。他认为，2024年提前投票总人数下降，但许多州的提前到场投票人数创下历史新高，这表明人们正在从邮寄投票转向亲自投票。他还指出，尽管提前投票总人数低于2020年，但仍然高于2016年，显示出提前投票的总体趋势在增长。此外，他还提到，大量提前投票可能并非代表整体投票人数的增加，而是高投票意愿的选民改变了投票方式。
Stephen Fowler分析了佐治亚州的早期投票数据，指出早期投票的共和党人（主要是白人农村男性和女性）比例较高，而民主党人（包括黑人和年轻人）的投票比例较低，但随着时间的推移，这种差距正在缩小。他还指出，共和党对提前投票的宣传策略有效地促使更多共和党人参与提前投票，这表明选民对选举的态度是可变的，而非一成不变的。此外，他还讨论了宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州选举结果公布延迟的原因，以及佐治亚州选举法律变化对选举结果公布速度的影响。
Deep Dive
Why are early voting numbers lower in 2024 compared to 2020?
More people are returning to in-person voting instead of mail voting.
Why might early voting be beneficial for election workers?
It can reduce crowds and chaos on Election Day, making their jobs easier.
Why did some Republicans vote early in 2024 despite past messaging against it?
The Republican National Committee's 'bank your vote' campaign resonated with voters.
Why might Pennsylvania and Wisconsin see delayed election results?
They cannot pre-process absentee ballots until Election Day, unlike most other states.
Why should Georgia's election results be reported faster in 2024?
Fewer mail votes and more early in-person votes will be counted first, and counties must report total votes by 10 p.m.
The episode discusses the early voting trends in the 2024 election, comparing them to 2020, and how the shift from mail voting to in-person voting has affected turnout.
- Over 49 million early votes have been cast, but this is lower than the 60 million at the same point in 2020.
- Record-breaking early in-person turnout has been observed in several states.
- The general trend is towards more early voting, but not at the same level as during the pandemic.
Shownotes Transcript