cover of episode So What Will Trump's Policies Mean For The Cost Of Living?

So What Will Trump's Policies Mean For The Cost Of Living?

2024/11/11
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Deepa Shivaram
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Mara Liason
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Scott Horsley
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Deepa Shivaram: 本期节目的核心是探讨特朗普的经济政策对生活成本的影响。民调显示,民众对生活成本上涨非常敏感,这直接影响了选举结果。全球通货膨胀导致多国政府垮台,这反映了民众对物价上涨的强烈不满。通货膨胀是重要的政治经济指标,它直接影响总统的执政能力。 Mara Liason: 选民希望政府能更快地解决通货膨胀问题,但总统在控制通货膨胀方面能力有限,没有立竿见影的办法。政府可以通过提高工资来应对通货膨胀,但这是一个长期过程。短期内通货膨胀可能难以缓解,但希望价格能够稳定下来,工资最终赶上物价上涨。通货膨胀对执政党来说是致命的,无论其政治立场如何。 Scott Horsley: 特朗普的关税政策可能导致通货膨胀。特朗普提出的全面关税政策将对美国经济产生巨大的通货膨胀影响。关税是一种进口税,它会推高商品价格,最终由消费者承担。特朗普之前的关税政策已经提高了消费者的生活成本。特朗普的言行存在差异,实际关税政策可能与竞选承诺有所不同。如果特朗普实施关税政策,其他国家可能会采取报复性措施,损害美国出口商的利益。关税政策会对美国农民造成负面影响,因为他们依赖出口市场。特朗普的大规模驱逐出境计划可能对农业等行业造成负面影响,并推高物价。驱逐从事农业生产的移民可能会推高食品价格。大规模驱逐出境可能导致通货膨胀,但其影响因地区而异。大规模驱逐出境将对农业、建筑业和酒店业等依赖移民劳工的行业造成损害。移民为美国经济带来了大量就业机会,他们的驱逐可能会加剧劳动力短缺,从而推高物价。减税政策对经济的影响取决于减税的对象和规模。延长2017年减税政策可能会加剧财政赤字,并可能推高利率。特朗普的减税计划可能包括降低企业税和为特定群体提供有针对性的减税措施。特朗普的减税计划可能会导致财政赤字恶化,并可能推高长期利率和抵押贷款利率。美国经济界具有韧性,能够适应特朗普政府带来的不确定性。选民对生活成本上涨感到不满,这促使他们投票支持改变。选民投票支持特朗普,寻求改变现状。 Scott Horsley: 尽管汽油价格有所下降,但许多其他商品价格居高不下,这使得民众对经济现状不满。2021年美国救援计划的大规模经济刺激可能加剧了通货膨胀。疫情后的供应链中断和乌克兰战争是导致通货膨胀的主要原因。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did voters express dissatisfaction with the incumbent party in the recent election?

Voters were frustrated with the rising cost of living, including rent, groceries, and insurance, which they tend to blame on the party in power.

What role did inflation play in the recent election?

Inflation was a significant factor, as it has historically led to the defeat of incumbent politicians worldwide, making it a critical economic and political indicator.

What did President-elect Trump promise regarding inflation?

Trump promised to fix inflation as soon as he won, but he hasn't detailed a specific plan to lower prices, only mentioning increased oil production.

How did the American Rescue Plan potentially contribute to inflation?

The plan's aggressive economic stimulus may have put upward pressure on prices, though it also boosted job growth and a tight labor market.

What is the current state of wage growth in relation to inflation?

Wage growth has been outpacing price growth for over a year, but cumulative price increases over the past few years have left people dissatisfied.

What are the potential economic impacts of President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs?

Tariffs could significantly raise consumer costs and invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, harming U.S. exports and farmers.

How might mass deportations impact the U.S. economy?

Mass deportations could drive up costs for industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as agriculture and construction, exacerbating labor shortages and inflation.

What are the potential effects of Trump's proposed tax cuts?

Tax cuts could save some people money, worsen the federal deficit, drive up long-term interest rates, and potentially make inflation control more difficult.

How does economic uncertainty affect the business community?

Uncertainty can be challenging for the economy, but the U.S. business community is resilient and will adapt to new policies as they emerge.

What other factors beyond the economy influenced the recent election?

While the economy was a primary concern, cultural issues and a desire for change also played significant roles in voter decisions.

Chapters
The episode discusses how inflation and the rising cost of living significantly influenced the 2024 election, leading to voter dissatisfaction and a shift in political power.
  • Voters strongly dislike when the cost of living increases, leading to political backlash.
  • Inflation has historically been a major factor in defeating incumbent politicians.
  • The Biden administration's economic policies, including the American Rescue Plan, were scrutinized for their potential impact on inflation.

Shownotes Transcript

Suffice it to say the economy is quite complicated and making sense of the specific impact of any one policy is quite difficult. But a number of the priorities President-elect Trump has championed, including mass deportations and steep tariffs, could all lead to yet another spike in the cost of living.This episode: White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram, senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson, and chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley.*The podcast is produced by Jeongyoon Han, Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at *plus.npr.org/politics).Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)