Kamala Might Win Iowa & How Our Ballots are Being Protected
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free delivery on your first three orders. While supplies last, minimum $10 per order, additional terms apply. Rise and shine, Fever Dreamers. Look alive, my friends. I'm Dee Spear. And I'm Sammy Sage. And this is American Fever Dream, presented by Betches News. Where we explore the absurdities and oddities of our uniquely American experience. Happy Election Day, everybody. Happy Election Tuesday. We made it. It's the day of the show, y'all.

It's the day. You know what my favorite part of election season is that I forget until the next one comes up? It's that we get to be with our perennial faves. Like each state kind of has their own election season gems and gems.

They reemerge around the vote counting days. You have Ben Wickler in Wisconsin, John Raulston in Nevada, Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ann Selzer in Iowa, who we're going to talk about extensively today. I have much to say. And

A new person this year is Anderson Clayton. Rising star. The breakout perennial fave, Anderson Clayton in North Carolina. 26 years old and already iconic. She's a legend. I got to watch her in person. You know how we talk about when we think of code switching, sometimes we think of people who are more gay and then they're less gay sounding in front of straight people or black folks who have to code switch for whatever reasons.

Anderson Clayton can code switch from hillbilly to Ivy league in a way that you've never seen because she's got to talk to all of North Carolina. So when we were out door knocking, she could go from Appalachian to Duke and it's like a split second. She knows her background. She's just from North Carolina. I mean, she's,

That could be so many things. Well, I'm pretty sure that she went to school for political science and organizing and whatnot, but she's from Western North Carolina. And she's just like, I mean, she is the picture of the state. She is the postal girl for the state. And I just think she's the coolest in the way that she has equal respect and understanding and place with everyone from, you know, the Ivy leagues to, to the Appalachian moonshiners. And like the people who don't want to answer their door will answer for her. Like she's just a delight.

Okay, I'm looking at her Wikipedia because I think we might as well go into this together. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. She was elected at 25.

So she grew up in Roxborough, North Carolina. I'm not sure about the details of what that's like, but she attended Appalachian State University. And okay, also important part of her background, she worked on Kathy Manning's congressional campaign and as a field organizer for both Kamala Harris and Liz Warren. That was the order I went in as well. And then for Amy McGrath. So it seems like she has a lot of experience because I imagine if she has this genuine North Carolina background, and then it seems like,

She probably learned how to talk Duke, if you want to call it that, when she was working closer with Congress people, people who were running for those districts. Anderson, we'd love to have you on the show. I think we said that last week, but we'll do it.

What's going on with you? Who are your perennial faves? These are my shout outs. My shout outs for today. I have to shout out Gavin from Governor Shapiro's team. I mean, that guy is ready for the national stage. He'll be the chief of staff for some president someday. He's gonna be so happy.

He's so lovely. He's a sweet man. And you know, I like him because I know he has a full time, like very, you know, responsible job, but he'll take time to be like, Hey V, did you eat today? Like I don't even work in Pennsylvania really. He's just like a very sweet person and I like him a lot. So yay for God. He really is. He is helping us get some information on the ground from Pennsylvania so that, you know, he's really made an effort to disseminate information through people who will have

bigger followings on social media because it's, you know, it's not that easy to get reliable information and he's coming from the governor's office. And something that I think Governor Shapiro has done that's been really good is that he knows Pennsylvania is, you

ground zero for money. It's very under attack. I mean, we're going to talk about it when we get to AmeriCamp, but it's rough in Pennsylvania. Yeah. So I think that this was a really smart, proactive move by their office to try to disseminate this information. So just, I mean, it's really just about distributing the preexisting official information. Yeah. Like that there's not massive voter fraud in Lancaster County. Yeah. Yeah. Stuff like that. We'll get into all of that.

Well, and the other people I want to shout out are our pals, Glenis and Jen from Generator Collective and Amplify Studios, who were the brains behind like all the influencer hype houses. And so shout out to the influencers who really learned so much about politics to be able to speak articulately about it. And even the ones who were kind of shy in the beginning, I feel like now they're like experts and they really did come to learn how policies affect

things like the creator economy, like queer people, like women, like friendships, like their generation and the climate, and that they actually could be more than this idea of a vapid influencer who doesn't care. They created some dynamic content. They're excellent script writers and videographers, and I'm so proud of them. They did a good job.

People who are producing content like this, as we do it too, you are a full-on documentary team in some cases. And they taught me so many things that I would have been like, if you would have said to me certain things, I'd be like, oh, that would never work. And then it does, right? It was like this exercise for me, even at 42 years old, to trust somebody who's 25 to be like, okay, yeah, let's take a risk on that messaging. And then it was like a banger. It was great. And so I've learned so much from them and I just appreciate the world we built.

It's actually because they're 25 that they know. And no, not even that. Like they just have grown up in a different. Right. I know. I mean, I look at some things that like are Gen Z focused content and I'm like, why does this weird stick figure? Why is that the way you communicate?

Okay. I don't need to know. It's just, you know, why do they like these little illustration of bunnies and coziness? Like I like those too. Would I have thought like that's going to be a trendy internet aesthetic? No, but you know, bringing us to the issues of the day, you never really know what is going to sway public opinion and to be able to assume, even if you know a lot and you're good at this,

I think what we're going and we'll get into, you know, we're gonna talk about the race and the where things stand right now and where the discourse is and what the early voting numbers are. But I think that one of the things that we are going to all come out of this election cycle with is the idea that the conventional wisdom was useless. And if anything, used to try to manipulate the way people think of things. And I think that if what happens is that

Kamala Harris is elected. And depending on how by how much more of a margin than was expected, I think the real story is going to be that Americans are not stupid. Our content on TikTok, our political content is not stupid. It mobilized people. It made people aware of the issues. It was it helped people tell stories and learn stories and the

you know, get the strength to talk about things and see themselves as affected by politics in ways that they maybe wouldn't have been. So I think that's what's... I think that's the story that we are maybe going to be...

be hearing. Turns out joy and vibes are in fact a strategy. And depending on what time you're listening to this show, you might be listening in the morning. You might be listening on your drive home. If you are listening to us on your drive home, immediately when you get home, turn on your TikTok, your YouTube, your Instagram, because we are having a pizza party live tonight. So it's called Pizza Party Live. I'm here in New York City. Sammy's coming down to the studio. We are

I pretty much put like all the money I had into this show so that we could do a really professionally produced live stream for people to celebrate democracy and the vote. Yes, we're going to be calling the states, even the down ballot races. We'll be giving you updates, but we're trying to make it as fun and celebratory as possible. And having seen the setup, when I say like this could be the future of election nights, I'm

When you sent me those photos of the studio, I was literally thinking, I was like, okay, so what is happening here is we are doing the equivalent of what any network is doing. People who are not cable watchers are going to watch it. And this is, I think, the future.

We have 10 surrogates from the campaign who will be calling in or stopping by. We have celebrities coming. We have, I can't tell you it's a surprise. We have celebrity guests. We have Broadway performances. It's going to be like Thanksgiving day parade, but make it democracy. And I do promise you, we have a partnership with the associated press as well. So we will be calling these races at the same time as the mainstream media is. The difference is like,

For a number of years, I've really enjoyed watching Steve Kornacki at the board, and I really liked the anxiety of election night. And I just can't do that this time. So this is kind of like Thanksgiving Day Parade, but make it democracy. I'm excited that I'm going to be watching Steve Kornacki on my phone while I wait to go on to the live stream. That's the thing, you could have both. I'll be on the live stream twice tomorrow. Right, exactly. And that's the other thing is like, even if you're watching it, you're watching MSNBC or watching CNN or Fox News,

You have a second screen and my plan is to be watching and living. I am really excited to be doing this IRL. Yeah. I think it's going to be so much fun. My goal is to, even if it's for 15 minutes, even if it's just the first hour, to have numbers that exceed that of linear television, which I think that I will have because we were generously granted simulcast licenses by a lot of my big creator friends.

So we're going to be going out to all their millions of viewers too, because they're like, I'm not using my channel. I'd love to help host and do whatever. And you could just run it over there. Because one, I think over the last four years, something I'm very grateful to the Biden administration for and Kamala is the professionalization of social media and the second screen media. And so if we can rock this out, which I know that we will,

I think it's just one more notch in the professional. You have to take us seriously. This is an industry with opportunity for so many more people. This will bear out in the voter data. And that's what I have confidence in, is that it will become clear. And the money follows the data, usually. Yep.

And what we're about to talk about is something that I think sort of, I think this is kind of a spiritual representation of this election, which is there's the mainstream belief Kamala Harris can't be the nominee. Joe Biden's not going to drop out. He's the only person who can be Trump. And then you just, you buck the trend. And this Iowa poll that has come out from the Des Moines Register by the famed J. Ann Seltzer, my perennial fave,

is really shocked people when it came out on Sunday because it showed Kamala Harris leading 47 to 44 in Iowa. Democrats have not won Iowa since Obama in 2012. And not just by a little bit, Iowa has gone very red, spiritually very red. Also because no campaigns were campaigning in Iowa.

there has been no effort at persuading those voters specifically. So they're just kind of watching,

happenings without having targeted advertising at them. And they also have passed a very strict abortion ban. So these results don't just necessarily portend doom for Nate Silver and all of the people who have- The tech bro, poly market of it all. Yeah. There's so much there to unpack.

But this has been a huge move, and it might actually drive more voters to the polls, knowing that maybe it's not just Iowa. Maybe it's Ohio. Maybe Missouri, Kansas. They have similar demographic makeup, and they're seeing the same campaigns. Here's the thing. I am such a Pollyanna and so optimistic all the time that even when –

to the point that when we were doing the live on debate night at VidCon, I was like, he did okay. And you were like, he did not do okay. V he did not do it. Go watch it again. And I was like, Oh no, he did not do. Okay. I have believed in Kamala Harris since the first time she ran for president and the first breath of,

We were one of the first people to do the case for Kamala and say, this actually can happen. And I feel the same way about this election. Like I know and have been saying for a long time, I think she's going to win in such a landslide. It's going to make your head spin and it will set the direction of this country. Just one to chaos. I have no illusions that there won't be violence from the other side or problems with the certification and whatnot. But when it comes to the popular vote,

We were told women can't win, black women can't win. They're not going to vote for a black woman and a gay guy. Remember when it was like going to be Pete Buttigieg maybe? And they were like, no, no, no, we couldn't possibly. She has proven, yes, we can. And in fact, by not trying all of this time, how far are we behind? So I think she's just like opened up a world of kind of like what can be.

I am not surprised that she is leading in Iowa because of the abortion ban. We've known that abortion was going to be that leading thing that would break the curse or break the trance that Trump had on some people because they've started to experience the consequences of him now. And that's like the consequences of the Supreme Court, the ways that the farm subsidies got fucked up when he was president. Those play out in the middle and the Midwest.

And I do think that Kamala has made it fun to vote for her and women are going to, like we said, the silent majority or whatever. That's why the Republicans are so pissed about that commercial that says you can go in and vote for who you want and not tell your husband or not tell your buddies because they know that's what's happening. Did you now see there's a male version? Yes. So good. My friend Andrea is dating this lovely man, Matt, and they live in Florida.

He's in the army and him and his army buddies all went together and voted for Kamala because they know that Donald Trump's going to put civilians in the chain of command. These are bros. Okay. These are dude, dude, duty dudes from Florida and in the army. And they're like, I'm just not trying to, I'm just not trying to deal with all that. Okay. Like it is what it is. The president's just signed up who signs our checks and does our stuff. And I just want stability because it wasn't stable when he was around. It was very chaotic and it will be worse this time.

My dad, who was a Trump voter, is voting for her. My brother-in-law, who was a Jill Stein voter in 2016, voted for her. Like, I just think that people are seeing her as a means to an end, as an escape hatch, and as a path forward. And there are many reasons that people are voting for her. And that's why I think the polling is so crazy, because you can't create, like, the Venn diagram of people voting for Kamala has never crossed before, really. Wow.

Well, let's talk about two things. So first, I want to talk about what you just said about all these people who are kind of just

going to vote for her that maybe it doesn't track with their past behavior. It's a defense vote. Yeah. And the second thing I want to say, address, is why that conventional wisdom was such a problem. First, what you're saying, I think, is really the core of why she has been so appealing and why the permission structure has to vote for her, like the memes and the, you know, she's the more zeitgeisty candidate.

If you're looking at who's trending up and who's trending down as a figure, she is the more zeitgeisty candidate. And I think that permission structure of her being so publicly...

prominent. And then the way she ran the campaign, the way she tacked to the middle, the way she focused on trying to get moderate Republicans to cross over and giving the people she campaigned with and where she campaigned and the message she sent. And I think one of the most important things is actually going to be that she did not try to make her candidacy about being a woman, being a black woman about... Because something I've realized is that there are so many people who

Their biggest fear of the Democratic Party is DEI. They see it as such a fundamental underpinning of what it means to identify with anything on the left, aka just not the right, that it actually has turned people into like, okay, I can't have that future. I would rather have this past that I'm familiar with.

And I think that that's how ultimately all of these women, all of these people who kind of just respect women and aren't like online and red pills and haven't been fed so much disinformation, they're just shutting up and

doing it and they don't need to like make a whole identity out of it. Right. And then you have the mainstream that I think we're so afraid of getting it wrong. And also like the media, we've watched the media have so many problems this cycle and we've seen billionaires take over and gut these publications. That's part of why the polling is so bad because they can't, they don't have as many resources to poll. There aren't as many legitimate polls. And that's, that enabled basically all these

right-leaning polls that Donald Trump was admittedly paying for. He said on Rogan he's paying half a million dollars a poll. Mm-hmm.

That created a vacuum for everyone to put those into the averages. And then you have Nate Silver with his Polymarket. We've said this a million times. It now seems that people are finally catching on that Nate Silver is on the board of Polymarket. He is not giving an objective analysis or an unbiased analysis. And people are believing this and setting the narrative that

what I hope is that everyone thinking it was so close made the Democrats and Kamala Harris work harder. I think what's going to happen is, you know, and, and part of the polls was to make it look like he was doing better, maybe to bum people out, make them feel like it was, you know, inevitable that the autocrat was going to get voted in. And also I, I,

have had this feeling, this intuition that he knows he's going to lose and has for a long time. I think he knew when it flipped to her that there was a chance he was going to lose. But certainly in these last couple weeks, he's become completely unhinged. Completely unhinged. And now it's more about

creating a narrative and evidence that there was fraud. Well, we were so neck and neck. How'd you win by 2 million votes? Must be fake. They've been on that train for a long, long time. And that's what I worry about with this more than anything. Right. I think that that's the thing that most people don't necessarily understand is that it is about that. It is about, oh my God, my mom just texted me. She must be watching MSNBC because I see it's on. She says,

it looks like they put all the young girls behind Donald, which they did. It's all like blonde women all of a sudden behind him. And

and sarah huckabee sanders yeah you know and i i do think there's a little bit of like a good boy uh goodbye tour you see this in the broadway community when they stunt cast somebody who really can't do it anymore but we have to have reverence for them because they gave so much to the art they gave him madison square garden because he wanted it they're putting the girls out there they're doing whatever i don't maybe they'll bring laura loomer back she actually when she was around he was a little bit more grounded he found out that she had plastic surgery and he didn't like that

That was what the reporting said. I'm just saying they're giving him a good farewell tour. But I do think in the end when he loses, because he will lose this election and I'm just not willing to, I'm not afraid to be wrong. So I'm just going to tell you where I'm at now. I don't need to like both sides it so that I can have like deniability later. He's going to lose this election in my, in my vibes, right. In my manifesting feelings. I feel that.

But what will happen to him after that is going to be very interesting too, because like Steve Bannon doesn't have any money or clout anymore. Stephen Miller is very annoying. He can keep trying to do what he's doing. The heritage foundation is going to keep trying to do what he's doing, but like, will Peter Thiel still be backing him or will they move on to what's next? Peter Thiel doesn't like to lose and this will be a massive embarrassment. No, no, no. He's going to move on. I think we're going to let him go to jail. I think they're giving him his little, you know, they're giving him the morphine, but he's out, babe. He's out. This is a death rattle, not a rally call.

At best, he ends up on house arrest at Mar-a-Lago. And you know what? I don't really fucking care. As long as he goes away and that there is a punishment and that he is not pardoned, because you can't.

You can't have anyone thinking that you can get away with this. This is treason, treason, sedition. He tried to overturn the 2020 election and he's trying to try to overturn this one. Yeah, he will try to overturn this one to the extent possible. I do think that the early voting numbers and this Iowa poll are going did so much damage in their ability to help that bear out. Right.

regardless of all of the attempts to manipulate the mainstream narrative. They're showing that his, you know, he's, yeah, sure, Madison Square Garden sold out. That sells out six nights a week. Like New York City, babe, getting 22,000 people anywhere. So did Billy Joel. I don't see him claiming to be the president. So did some of the, so did the women's basketball games before they were even popular, right? Like we could do this.

But he can't fill a stadium in any of the states he actually needs to win. And what I've enjoyed is that the cameramen are showing that. It's not just, and you can see it in the background of MAGA people's pictures. You can see it. He's on stage and half the stadium's not full. He could say all he wants that he's selling out stadiums. He's looking upon an empty audience. He knows it's over.

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From getting engaged to getting married, Zola has everything you need to plan your wedding in one place. Start planning at Zola.com. That's Z-O-L-A dot com. I want to talk about this Iowa poll and why specifically it is so different. I know we keep coming back to it, but why it is important.

Ann Selzer is someone who has polled Iowa specifically for years. She doesn't try to do other states. She knows how to poll Iowa. Iowa used to be the swing state, like very important. Obviously, the Iowa caucuses were first, but

But even as Iowa became less relevant electorally, this poll specifically has been historically very accurate, even when it has gone against what all the other polling says. So it said that Hillary, you know, it showed that Hillary was doing way worse than polling showed in 2016 and that Biden was doing worse in her poll than in the broader narrative. And if you remember 2020, you know,

the polling, he was shown as plus 17 in Wisconsin at some point. It looks like he was going to win by seven points. And that was an overestimation. And in terms of just the overall track record, she has correctly predicted the winner of the Senate and presidential races in Iowa within one or two points every time. Even 2016, right? Even the Hillary stuff, she was not disillusioned by that. Trump won Iowa by at least seven points in the past two elections.

So this is showing a lot of movement. And the specific movement it's showing is very important. We've said this on the show so many times. Kamala Harris will win on the strength of never voters, people who are new voters. Ann Seltzer said this became a bigger pool. She had polled when Biden was the nominee in June. She had polled in September. And she polled this last week.

And she basically described it as a get-off-the-bench moment for people when Harris became the nominee, especially among seniors and independents. Now, let me talk about her methodology for a second just so you understand how she's getting these numbers.

Ann Selzer still uses random digit dialing in Iowa. And the way that she measures likely voter is she asks, did you vote already or will you vote? These other polls are looking at like, did you vote last time? They're modeling out based on a lot of assumptions about who will and won't show up.

She is just looking at, did you vote or are you definitely going to vote? And that's what she considers likely voters. And she's only polling likely voters. So this group, older people and independents, she leads among likely voters by 20 points for women over 65. And she's even leading with men over 65, which has not, not by as much, but it has not happened. And

Independent women back her by 28 points, while independent men support him, but by a much smaller margin. She's grabbing college educated whites. His margin with men has shrunk significantly since September compared with another previous poll that they did.

The other thing is that these older voters are much more likely voters than the younger voters. So the older voters, 93% of them had already voted or say they definitely will. With people under 35, that was 62%.

So she's over-indexing with the people who are most definitely going to vote. And she's grabbing new people that were not even showing up in the polling in, let's say, June. People are very hung up on this thing that she's doing well with men over 65. And I was watching CNN this morning or something, and they were saying, there's no way. That's definitely wrong. It's definitely wrong. I'm like, it's not wrong. It's like the military. They just don't want to deal with this shit. They don't want to deal with this shit.

Also, my parents were children when the Civil Rights Act was passed, and they started going to school and learning about integration. Then came the women's movement in the 70s and whatnot, and the right to vote and have your own bank account.

The fact that that work has been undone for a generation that worked hard to have it or that was growing up when they were gaining new rights, they're pretty pissed about it. I think that's the thing for women over 65 are like, get bent. We already fought for this one time and I'm not doing it. Now I have to do it again and I'm angry.

And with men, I think it has become – like I've always said, it's not that men – white men were all super Trumpy, white supremacist, hateful, transphobic bastards. They were – their protective instinct was triggered to protect the wrong thing. They were told lies, convincing lies that they believed from Trump. Well, it's been nine years now. And The Apprentice. They believed he was this person. And The Apprentice, right? He was this businessman and he's not. Right.

So now it's been like 10 years of him doing this. We've already been through the cycle of so many adult children going no contact with their Trump or parents. And we're past even that cycle where people are now coming out of it and being like, it's not worth it for me to not have my friends and my family and my community for this man who continues to embarrass me. And that's I mean, that's what it was for my dad and his buddies. Right. They're like, I'm sick of being embarrassed. I'm sick of this bullshitting.

sickness and anger and like aggravation and like you know your sister's telling me I gotta vote like this for my niece and I'm like okay well yeah alright fine or for my grandchildren and

They are more willing, I think now, to acquiesce to the demands and desires of their children and grandchildren when it comes to the vote than they maybe were the first time they voted for him. Well, I think because it's borne out. Like, they did go away. People are dying. They don't want their daughters to die if they have a miscarriage or can't get care. And it's real. Like, I think that ultimately the narrative's going to be the American people are not as stupid and easily fleeced

as you thought. And another, all those January sixers are still in prison.

He didn't help any of those people who came for him so hard. He has done nothing for anybody. And that's why he can't fill stadiums anymore because we've seen it now, right? When he was running on the lie of what could be, it was a little bit more alluring. Well, now it's been 10 years. It didn't happen. Fool me once. Okay. Fool me for 10 fucking years. No, I don't think so. I'm sick of this. Right. Especially because you look at his like, and Stephanie rule said this on the Friday episode, you know, he,

Thinks back when he told like the factory owners in Ohio, like you can't close. And they did anyway, because he can't control that. And neither could those people. They didn't want to close. But one thing I think to your point about just wanting to be

just the fact that he is beyond the pale for American democracy and the fact that what you're saying, you know, your parents, our parents all grew up with this idea of America that like segregation is not good. Like those people are already voting for Trump, but that, you know, I know there was, there's been much said about, you know, the idea of we don't see color. And I do think that that is, you know, has its problematic ways about it, but

What that belief signifies, that it's like you shouldn't judge people by that and that we do want to achieve a multicultural fair democracy. I think that's why some people are so turned off by DEI that they feel it is unfair. Well, there's that. However they feel about it. Right.

In addition, though, when you look at even the – so like let's say – I would say in the last 10, 15 years, also the rate of interracial marriage, mixed-race children, mixed-faith children, mixed-faith marriages is so much more prevalent than it ever has been that maybe somebody who would have voted for Trump when they were 55 now isn't because their children married. So they've learned about a different culture. They've come a farther way. They're not –

as hateful or as, you know, lack of understanding as there was. I mean, the center of her campaign really does appeal to that sort of idealistic ideology. Do we believe in the promise of America? And are we willing to fight for it? Yes, I do believe in the promise of America. And that's what makes me so, I think that's an amazing campaign message, but I would have voted against for anyone against Donald Trump. We know this, but he is so, he is the antithesis of that.

And I think my favorite part of this Iowa poll, other than just the general results, was that she asked likely voters which issue have they been thinking about the most in their decision to support Kamala Harris. And among the people who said they were voting for her,

51% of those people said the future of democracy. The next highest was abortion at 22%. The economy and inflation, 7% in Iowa. And

I know that like everyone was saying, don't, no one cares about democracy. That's a stupid message. No one understands. They want to hear how much money you're going to put in their pocket. I felt this way the whole time that democracy is the message. It just takes a little bit more explaining than here's the money I'm going to give you. People saw the threat and they paid attention. And these are people who were not advertised to.

And yet they were smart enough to realize that this is an election about democracy. Abortion, even half as much as that. Although I would argue that those two things are sort of inextricably linked. Do you think this is the TikTok effect in some form? I mean, they weren't advertised to, but I'm sure people in Iowa are just as much on social media as they are anywhere else. Well, this is so many old people. And certainly so much of the culture. I know there's so many old people on TikTok too, though. It's old people. I think it's, you know what I think it is? I just think that

When you actually look, you don't have to look that hard to see what is the difference. If you are willing to look beyond what is fed to you algorithmically and actually consume any information, which older voters are?

Then you see what is so apparent here. And these are people who have lived through wars, whether it's World War II, where it was really democracy on the line for a lot of people, or Vietnam, where they were fighting for democracy versus communism. It's just, if you look any closer at what's going on, it's very clear what is actually at stake.

What do we think this means for the rest of the Midwest? Can she pull an Obama-la map? We're going to take a break, and when we get back, we're going to tell you all about it.

All right, Sammy, what does this mean for the rest of the Midwest, though? I mean, Iowa's one thing. We heard something about her leading, you know, in certain parts of Kansas even right now. Could she get Missouri? I said she could get Missouri because of the Chapel Roan factor and because of abortion. I don't know. Could we get a purple Missouri? Like, what are we looking at? I don't really know the states well enough to be able to discern. If we had Anselzer polling those states, we might.

I might feel differently. I think we just look at things as so red or blue. And the fact is they weren't red or blue. They were Trump or Obama. And Obama wasn't actually that long ago. And she very well could get Obama numbers. If not better, some people are saying. Well, what brings me relief even more is that we might actually get to find out that these are called Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Because if she is able to actually win any of these states...

And I think there's also a difference in, let's talk about the early voting numbers. More people have voted early. And in certain states where the counting would be slower if you voted early, like in Pennsylvania, those people are waiting until election day to vote.

So that they think their votes will be counted, quote unquote, faster. Because Pennsylvania can't start opening their mail ballots. And there is no early voting in Pennsylvania. It's early mail ballot. You can do that in person if you want. You want to take 12 minutes to request the mail ballot in person, fill it out, and then submit it. But it's still mail. So it can't be opened until 7 a.m. on election day. Right.

I mean, Michigan fixed theirs so that they can, they're already counting absentee and mail-in so that they can kind of get a headstart on some of that in their early voting. But yeah, it's going to be crazy. I mean, I just want to remind people, we see the Obama map.

In 2008, Obama won every state in the Great Lakes region and flipped nine states that had voted Republican in 2004. Obama got Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, as well as one seat from Nebraska's 2nd District.

in play. Indiana. These are things that we could not have imagined that are not impossible. They did happen. Yes, exactly. Florida's the one that I'm like, I'm not even gonna, I'm not gonna even hope. Well, we'll see. I mean, a lot of the people I know vote for

voted in Florida and did vote for her. And a lot of people are actively voting against Rick Scott because we've also got that race going on for Senate because of what a bastard he's been. You know why my mom wouldn't vote for Rick Scott? Why? She goes, because he lied about that swimming pool. And I'm like, what are you talking about, Ma? And she's like, he lied and something about...

He lied about a swimming pool. And I was like, if you lie about a swimming pool, you lie all the time. What swimming pool did he lie about? I have no idea. She heard something somewhere about him and a swimming pool. If you're a Florida listener, can you please help us and write us an email and tell us what mom's talking about? Because she does not know. She's like, he lied about that swimming pool. And he's lied about everything else since.

Okay, let's figure out the swimming pool. I would love if Debbie McCarcell Powell holds it out in Florida. Look, it's also about will the Democrats take the Senate? Well, she said, will that Marco Rubio still be there? Because I like him. And I was like, yeah, and she's like, okay, then I'm going to vote for the Democrat because I like that Marco Rubio. I was like, oh,

Okay. Okay. Well, maybe we need to get Marco Rubio to lie about a pool or just anything. Like show her. She thinks it's a balance. Maybe whatever it takes, whatever it takes. You know what? It doesn't matter. A, I mean, look, I don't want to get my hopes up, but I did see those videos in the villages and she has so much support in the villages and that doesn't seem, that's not nothing. It's not nothing. So,

So knowing how many people have voted early this year and knowing that there is quite a large gender gap in those votes, especially in swing states, let's talk about some things that we're going to be looking out for as the results come in. I want to be seeing...

Are women turning out more in states with extreme abortion bans for Democrats? Like, for example, is Iowa going to maybe be trending more Democrat than New York? Because I think there's maybe a feeling like people in New York don't really feel that that's in danger. So they're not voting against Republicans as much. I'm also looking to see if the wave of non-voting young men materialized for Donald Trump.

And to see if he ended up capturing a larger percentage of Black and Latino voters as he had attempted to do. I don't think so. I think he blew it with the Madison Square Garden comments. And I also think it was always a lie that Black men and masks weren't supporting Kamala Harris. I think that was always a lie.

I've never seen like genuine evidence other than a couple people that they would point to that were paid by Turning Point or something that were black men to say like, oh, we're not voting for her. Like, I think it was always a lie that black men didn't support Kamala Harris for whatever reason. I think it was based in misogynoir and just hate and trying to sow division within a community again. But obviously that did not happen.

Yeah, I mean, I can't speak to my own feelings. Everything I'm saying is kind of based on soft data. I can't speak to that. But...

I can speak to the fact that they were planning on those grabbing those people based on the idea that they might not vote at all. They were planning on that. And I also think like his rhetoric of saying that, you know, they're coming and they're taking black jobs. I think that Donald Trump thought that the rhetoric of white supremacy would easily translate to the black community. And they'd be like, Oh yeah, the enemy is actually the people crossing the border who are taking black jobs. What's a black job. And,

But instead, he just made it look like he – it made it clear that he thinks that black folks only have jobs that illegal or new people to America would take. He was essentially saying that they all have jobs in some sort of like service industry or whatever and that they don't have jobs –

anywhere else in any sector and that immigration is a threat to them and their low-paying jobs, which I think offended people more than anything, as it should, and also was very clear that the rhetoric of white supremacy was not going to transfer as quickly to Black people as he thought that it would. Especially when we could see tomorrow that they- He tried to be like, we look down on Black people and you look down on Latinos, right? And they were like, no, the fuck we don't. Right. And I think that

Ultimately, I think what this is going to be is that the pro-democracy coalition, like we've been saying, will come together because they don't want to deal with this asshole.

And whether it's misogynoir, whether it's white supremacy, whether it's taking away women's reproductive rights, all of those things, it's almost impossible to separate them from what an autocratic or fascistic leadership dynamic looks like. They are the same thing. So it's what Americans are rejecting. It seems we pray and hope to God that it goes this way. That is what it seems that Americans will be rejecting.

if they come out in these numbers for Kamala Harris that it seems they might be. And the last thing I think that people don't really speak as much about is the difference in the ground operations of these two campaigns. I've seen anecdotes that people have had their doors knocked multiple times for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, North Carolina.

And they have not seen a single Trump canvasser. And I think part of that is that the Democrats have built, you know, they have organized statewide in multiple states. They have almost 100,000 volunteers, I believe. And Donald Trump outsourced his get out the vote ground operation to Elon Musk to do with paid canvassers, some of whom were people that he like his pack trapped in a U-Haul truck.

and force them to knock doors and wouldn't pay them if they didn't knock enough doors. You didn't see Patriot Front out there either. This is the thing with this fucking operation that he put together is he wants... Donald Trump is cheap.

He will bus you into his rally, but not out. He will book Madison Square Garden, but not any concessions or bathroom attendance. He doesn't care about anything but himself. When it comes to Elon Musk, the richest man in the world is the cheapest bastard on the planet, right? So he doesn't get Patriot Front or any of these people who are used to and enjoy traveling around in the back of U-Haul trucks. He kidnapped canvassers, dropped them off,

force them to perform practically at gunpoint. I mean, like financial gunpoint. And then was like, you know, his software to track the voters was completely wrong because he created his own instead of using minivan because he didn't want to pay for the minivan licensing, which is the official canvassing platform. Everything about it was a joke and it just goes to show money can't buy class and

Elon does not know what he's doing. He's another bad businessman who is just simply propped up by the right and government contracts and

because they think he's easy to control because he is. Look at where we are with this. Look, you get what you pay for. You get what you pay for. And for having all the money in the world, they don't pay for literally anything of quality. Even their turning point stuff, right? They do these big rallies and they give out merch and whatever, but there's never any like basic accommodations. There's never any like, you didn't see like

influencer campaigns. You didn't see messaging points they put out or just based on hate. What do you mean? Their whole thing is influencer campaigns paid for by the Kremlin. We allegedly will give you a million dollars, Bryce Hall, to endorse Trump. But then he gets on stage. They've done no media training with him. They haven't given him any talking points. So he gets out there and he's like, yeah, vote for Trump. Same with Nicky Jam. They're like, we'll give you all this money to endorse. Well, Nicky Jam not anymore.

Well, not anymore, but that's the thing. We gave all this money to endorse, but they did nothing to finesse that person to be a spokesperson. So that's the thing is like, none of these people are authentic. They are just there for the check and they didn't put any money into making them a spokesperson. They just thought, oh, having somebody come out here and say, yeah, I'm for you is going to be enough. Logan Paul did an 18 minute nearly crying video that definitely felt like somebody was over his shoulder, making sure he did it right.

And it doesn't slap. You can't endorse Trump like that because you don't actually believe it. You're just here for the fun and the vibes and maybe to like hate the same person. And then we get to Elon Musk and his next fun thing he tried to do was that $1 million campaign, which as we're doing this, they're in court today in Pennsylvania.

for Elon Musk allegedly doing an illegal lottery. Because it turns out that of the 14 people who have won a million dollar check from him that were supposed to be randomly selected voters, all 14 of them were Republicans, that the lawyer today is alleging Elon Musk personally picked or his team personally picked because they would be good spokespeople for the campaign. A million dollars seems to be the magic number to endorse Trump.

And it comes with very few strings. You just have to say it. You're a voter and you say it. We're going to pick you because you're a black registered Republican and we're going to try to make it seem like you speak for the community. We can see through the bullshit. And I really hope that the state of Pennsylvania, of all of them, where chaos is running amok in Pennsylvania because of Trump right now, ends up getting Elon Musk's ass for this illegal lottery that he's doing. That would be the best karma ever.

But did anyone really think that the first winner was seriously a man named John Prayer? Prayer. Prayer. The thing they're alleging here, because they of course have a copy, when you win anything, even if you go on the prices right, you have to pay taxes on those prizes. So like if you win a refrigerator, you have to have the money for the taxes. And just like anything they do too, so you get a million dollars, which you take home 280,000, right? Because after taxes on a lottery and all that.

So he the lawyer today said there is actually no prize to be won. Instead, recipients fulfill contractual obligations to serve as spokespeople for the America First PAC. So they're not winning a lottery free and clear. They have to perform for it. It's a job. It's also not random. They've been hired. And it's not random. They're selected to agree to get a million dollars for promoting the PAC.

And they're all Republicans. They're all very pro-Trump. Pro-Trump, yeah. I'm excited to see what happens to Elon Musk post-election. Well, you know, like you told Tucker Carlson, if she gets in, he'll be in jail. And I was like, it shouldn't matter who the president is as to if you go to jail or not, if you did something. The president does not send people to jail. They can only get people out of jail. Yeah. Shall we move on to Americant? Yeah.

This is our last thing. A mayor I can't. Stop the seal 2.0. Plans. How are they going to do it? They're going to try. They're going to. They are already trying. It's harder now, knowing the early vote numbers, the gender gap. Here's what I want to talk to you about. I have heard that he is going to do what he did in 2020, which is declare victory at 1030 p.m., which is fucking insane. I have heard that too.

It is insane that he's just going to come out and he's going to declare victory at 1030 p.m., which is before the polls even close on the West Side. And he's going he started to say that Pennsylvania, specifically Lancaster County, is cheating and lied about 2600 ballots that all have the same handwriting on them.

First of all, if 2,600 ballots were intercepted for being potentially fraudulent because of having the same handwriting on them, that's good. That means the system's working and it recognized that there were potentially fraudulent ballots in the mix. However, they weren't ballots. They were applications to vote. They were voter registration applications, 2,600 of them all in the same handwriting. For mail ballots. Yes, for mail-in ballots. And I'm going to promise you it

It wasn't the Democrats doing that. It was not Team Blue doing that. Well, I think the investigation into it seemed to suggest that it was done by paid canvassers. And we all know who is using paid canvassers. Well, there we are. So, I mean, our elections are

process after process, red tape after cross-check, and they are safe. And I have to believe that, right? If we're going to say we have a free and fair election, then we have to believe that with our full chest and trust that there is a process to stop corruption, even with some of the pro-Trump, crazy, lunatic poll workers that are going to be out there. There are processes to ensure that those people don't affect the entire nation either. There is no one person who can take down this very complicated system.

And I learned about this thing. It made me feel better. So even though this isn't a mare, I can't, I hope it makes you feel better too.

Maricopa County in Arizona, the spotlight of America often for voting, is home to the Runback Election Services Facility, which is near the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. And it prints about 35 million ballots for counties in eight states for the November election. From this facility, that is a fortress that they built after the 2020 election because Maricopa, I mean, people are showing up with guns saying, stop the count, remember? So they built this crazy

It's a crazy fortress of a place. They spent millions of dollars because they print the ballots here for Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, Texas, Utah, Florida, and Illinois. The ballots have to be printed somewhere and it has to be secured. So this is where. It's got armed guards. It looks kind of like a prison.

I was honestly kind of glad to see it. And the other thing that I liked about this is they were interviewing the CEO of this place and they were like, you know, but how do you make sure that there's not like ballot interference? And he's like, okay, well, each state has different machines that count the ballots. The weight of the paper that the state paid for could be different. The font they selected could be different. The size of the sheet is different. And,

And in Maricopa alone, which includes Phoenix, has 15,000 different ballot styles to ensure that somebody doesn't just get a copy of the ballot and make a bunch of them that look the same. There's all these different layers. So even if one town's ballots got affected, it wouldn't be like a copy for the whole state type thing. I was like, that's pretty great.

And he was like, yeah, I mean, even in federal elections, states get to run the election. And then you have all these little electoral boards. And depending on what they spend and what they like and how people put into it, that's what they order. So we're doing, you know, tens of thousands of different types of ballots. So we can't be copied. They're auditable.

They're registered with a serial number. They are not copyable. The type of paper they use is proprietarily created. So it's not something that can be copied. And they are calibrated specifically to the machine tabulating the ballot, which varies by county. So this is the design and the layout of the ballot itself. So I was like, that made me feel amazing.

This is like an intelligence operation. It's serious. So the runback company works in 30 states total providing election materials, including Washington, D.C. And the sad kind of part of this is in addition to having like the types of inks and the types of papers and all the stuff, a growing part of the business now centers around election security. So in addition to the voting materials like the ballots...

They recently started selling panic buttons to counties because of all the threats to poll workers. And so far, the company has sold about a thousand panic buttons to different counties when pressed the button alerts 9-11. That's so scary that this is necessary. I know. But at the same time, I'm glad it's happening because they are there is going to be some fucking crazy thing. There will be.

So everyone buckle up. We've said on the show a lot of times she has to win the vote, the count, the certification and the violence. Now we know she's going to smoke that vote. We're going to have a pizza party. We're going to be having so much fun. I'm going to get champagne. We're going to have a great time tonight. Come and watch us. Watch MSNBC. Our pals were on all weekend with us. Go back and listen to the episodes with Jen Psaki and Katie Turr and everybody that came on to talk

to American Fever Dream listeners. Make everybody feel nice and safe and informed. Watch the pizza party live tonight. We're going to have a blast. We'll be calling the states. Maya's here to be an emotional support doggy. We could maybe bring her. We'll see. We could bring Maya. We'll see. Again, tonight we've got a ton of fun celebrity guests. I'll tease for you a couple as a reward for staying to the end of the show. We've got Amber Ruffin coming on. We have Broadway performances from the cast of Newsies and Suffs the Musical.

We've got A.B. Burns-Tucker. I Am Legally Hype is coming up from Georgia to talk to us. We have Chris Valenti, the But You Don't Understand history creator. We've got Alex Perlman in Pennsylvania, Jessica Craven in California. We've got Swing State creators who are going to be down at the polls telling us what's going on. It is truly my life's work in one night, so I really hope you tune in.

Because I think that we have the opportunity to really change the trajectory of what election night means. We're going to get some ridiculously fun clips. I'm so excited. I am so excited. And then we have an interesting way to call each state also tonight when you're watching. I think you'll be impressed. I'm not just going to be lighting up a map.

Maybe we're breaking open a pinata. Maybe we're having to crack open a lobster to find what's going on with Maine. I don't know what else we have. We've got all kinds of goofy stuff. I don't know. I think for millennials, it's my fever dream, right? So it's going to be kind of like Double Dare Thanksgiving Day democracy. I don't know. It's going to be great. I am so excited. I love a variety show. This is kind of my dream too. I'm glad I just get to participate. It's going to be great. Yeah.

Here we go. Adjacently. Yeah. Here we go. We have the kids election too, where we're voting between my two dogs who you want to be top dog. Right now, Dottie's in the lead. It's Dottie versus Little. And we've got, you know, stuff for the kids because I used to love that when I was a kid. Do you think Little's going to concede? No. Little's an election denier. She's a staunch Republican. She worked on the Romney campaign. She's a never Trumper though, but we'll see. We'll see how it shakes out.

Look, I hope Little defends democracy and respects the vote. She'll do the right thing. Okay, so again, tune in at Under the Dust News on YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, everywhere. That's where it's going to be streaming. It should be really easy to find. And we'll also put it in the show notes. Until next time, I'm V Spear. I'm Sammy Sage. And this is American Fever Dream. Good night.

American Fever Dream is produced and edited by Samantha Gatzik. Social media by Candice Monega and Bridget Schwartz. Be sure to follow us on Instagram and TikTok at Betches News and follow me, Sammy Sage at Sammy and V at Under the Desk News. And of course, send us your emails to AmericanFeverDream at Betches.com.