Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Jayter's Ball, VC giveback, TikTok survey
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Are everybody welcome back to the number one science, politics, technology and business podcast in the world for five years running? We're about to hit our fourth anniversary here. Episode two, hundreds coming up and a bunch of munich fans are getting together.

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After four years, we got our together this great.

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and bars. Three ninety nine can up this afternoon.

We can source to the fans and .

they just got razing. Speaking of that, your people use me in an ad free bird. So you talk about plugs a few .

days when I shot IT out that glue A I was hiring engineers. We had like one .

hundred applications.

Just gi on the show yeah for glue AI yeah that's .

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Sani s, to deal with your panic attacks, right? Let's get started. Enough of the snap hurray e season is upon us.

As freeburg have predicted, hurricane milton mainland fall on wednesday evening along the west coast of florida. As many of you know, it's been degraded. IT started as a category five, potentially in a category three.

And then IT looks like it's a category one now. So I just see these things are quite random leading up to melt. Those six million floridians across fifteen counties were ordered to evacuate.

That's a lot of people have. And IT was a pretty powerful storm. IT ripped off the roof of the tropic.

Hannah eld in tampa. So far, the death toll is at four, but is expected to, sadly. And just two weeks ago, hurray e hane.

Sweep through six thern states, killing over two hundred and twenty people, tragically devastating western north CarOlina. A and entire towns will work out who these are also beyond the tragic human losses are economically staggering. In terms of the losses active weather estime in.

The total economic damage could be between one hundred forty five and one hundred sixty billion, from how and and moody estimates the property damage alone could be a science bill. Tons to get into here. Fema starling, saving the day.

Tons is up, but free. Better back on episode one two, you predicted this would happen. What's causing all this? And let's to start with the science tangle, I guess, before we get into the other political and insurance issues.

Well, I think you feel remember when we talked about this a couple months ago, the c surface temperature was that kind of a record high in the atlantic, and warm ocean temperatures drive a moist air up that vapor tes. The warmer the air, the faster the evaporation that starts to cause the movement of the air, which drives ultimately the hurray e and the hurry ane sucks up more, more moist from the ocean. And that creates a feedback loop.

So the more energy you have in the ocean, the more likely you are to accelerate wind forces in storms. And that's why you get these massive hurricanes that suddenly form seemingly overnight and go like in the case of lane, that hurricanes ent from a cat two to a cat four or cat five, and like forty eight hours because of the energy. That's all of a ninety percent.

Here's an interesting step. Ninety percent of the energy that we get from the sun is absorbed and stored in our oceans. The other kind of fact that's playing into that, if you pull up that sign, that nature article, and this is something that I think you guys may remember, we talked about.

So this was an article that came out, uh, a paper science paper that came out a couple of month ago. And in this paper the scientists identified that removing software dioxide from cargo ships that travel across the oceans is actually causing accelerated warming in the oceans. And the reason is that the solver dioxide forms cloud formations and those as they travel across the oceans, and those clb formations reflect sunlight, and in the absence of those class formations, that sunlight makes its way into the ocean and you get more ocean warming.

And by their estimation, removing sulfur dioxide, which causes acid rain. And that's the reason it's been pushed to be removed. And they started removing IT twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty one from cargo vessels. By removing software dioxide, we are now going to see a doubling of the rate of warming of the oceans in the twenty twenty years and going forward.

Let me there for a second just to make sure people understand what are saying emissions from cargo ships blocks sunlight, which then of course reduces the heat of or by the oceans and so we're now choosing between pollution of the air or overheating of the ocean. So I correct and .

summarizing IT that's roughly IT. And um .

what question again.

I goa, that goes to the fuel of cargo vessels. And a couple of years ago, they started to implement these Mandates that softer dioxide no longer be used in the fuel. As a result, when software dioxide is emitted from these vessels, IT goes into the atmosphere and IT actually triggers cloud formation.

So now you have these clouds that are forming and makes going to prove the image right now. Yeah, here you can see that to all of these tracks. Are these cargo vessels moving across the ocean.

And as they move across the ocean, they create cloud cover. That cloud cover actually reduces the warming in the ocean because IT reflect sunlight. So now that sunlight energy gets absorbed into the ocean. So this is another driving force that some people are now speculating, maybe accelerating the warming of the oceans that we're seeing, which drives this extreme storm and hurricane vents. And so this becomes a more frequent that .

now a lot of something does. I mean that we're mean reverting, meaning if we improve the quality of the fuel source that are used in shipping, doesn't that then mean that we're reverting back to what would have happened in the absence of these dirty fuel sources?

Yeah so in addition.

no, you know i'm asking i'm asking the question .

is actually or not um so yes, we are no longer reflecting as much sunlight. And so for .

somebody we had bad cool we have to the narrative of what we all think is happening.

Oh, well, the argument is that we've actually been warming the atmosphere, which we have been. We can see the data that shows that everywhere all over the earth, not just about sunlight coming in on the oceans, and not just ocean, but the the atmosphere is warming. The planet is warming.

And so this is, uh, by by blocking the sunlight above the oceans, we were artificially dampening that effect. And we were reducing the amount of heat energy that was getting into the oceans. So now by taking out away, we're seeing the heat energy in the oceans accelerate, and now the oceans are getting much.

much warmer. Lation was good.

That would be. Paradox here is that IT was creating a blocker for sunlight. And to your points to off, exactly like, shouldn't we just be going back to what was Normal? But at the same time, in the same system, we had heated things up. So this is a multifaceted system that we're dealing with freeburg. And I guess they take away from all of this is that we've got to be really careful with what we do with the environment.

right? Well, I mean, let's talk about economics, right? So what how much real estate do you guys think is on the Flora coastline? And what's the real estate?

And I can you just anchor this? Like was IT that IT was supposed to be a cat tegor five and now it's a category three when I hit land.

right? So what happens typically when storms hit land is they no longer have that hot ocean pumping energy back into the storm that keeps the feedback loop going. So the storm cycle starts to break down all arracan.

When they hit land, they start to break apart. And so the category, which measures the wind speed, actually reduced. This is just a natural thing that happens.

But this was a category five hurricane when I made landfall. I believe IT was category for. So you know, IT was a massive solution process. We should .

not dismiss that because my understanding was Helen was cut for when IT like hit north CarOlina.

But I read yesterday .

what and what happened with IT. Ha.

so that's right. But what happened when hill in hit north CarOlina and I was not a cat for, uh, what happened is as that storm moved inland, IT hit the the mountains and the first mountains and hit or on western north CarOlina, that area is elevate these mountains there. So when a heavy hot storm runs into cold mountains, all the moisture dumps out, it's like IT runs into IT, and suddenly everything precipitates out of that storm.

And that's why some parts of western north CarOlina, I got like eighteen high. Some people measures highest thirty inches of rainfall in a couple of hours. So this is same dumping happens when that hot air hits cold, hits a cold region, and suddenly everything, all that more moisture precipitate out and dance to the ground. So IT ran into a mountain is effectively why everything fell out .

in north CarOlina. So you're in that he wasn't democrats.

basically a .

what .

is the .

engineering spell?

But the node wants us to be very clear that we need to we need to stop all this disinformation that somehow democrats that storm there. So we can sure everyone, that there was .

this line that there's a ton of little engineering being run .

by government agencies.

Well, I mean, the the origin of this no freeboard is people have done experiments for decades, are trying to control the weather or you alter the weather and and they're doing that in the midst east by seeding clouds and creating more rain. We saw that with the dubai floods. They said that that might have been caused by over seating of clouds, which they're doing there. And then there have been experiments just to, you know, for the crazy laser people conspiracy. There is there are some ex, there actually have been experiments with lasers, edo being shot into hurricanes, storms, correct?

Are you alex Jones? Is that what we're doing? What not we're going? Not saying Alice Jones, i'm just .

saying that's the origin of where .

people are kind of building on this is hurray is what i'm .

doing here yeah putting .

particulates in clouds to accelerate preciptation is by me. We've done that for one hundred years. You know, you can do you can increase the precipitation rate when there's already clouds that have formed.

But that has nothing to do with creating two hundred mile an hour wind speed that requires an extraordinary amount of energy, all of this energy. But the oceans are like giant batteries. And when a hurricane ts.

Going, that battery is accelerating the hurricane. And the hurricanes cks up more power from the battery. And he creates this incredibly dynamic system. There is no human created energy system that can for form a hurricane.

A hurray e is an extraordinary, powerful natural fomenting that arises from the amount of energy that can come out of very, very, very hot oceans, relatively speaking. So, you know, that's really where these hurricanes coming from. Now they're na be more frequent if the ocean temperatures remain elevated as they seem to be and continue to be elevated.

And this can be a function of generally the temperatures warning on earth, generally the removal of sulfur dioxid, generally these linear linear cycles. There's a lot of factors, but IT seems to be the case that we are having a very significant trend of continuously warmer oceans. And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're gna have what used to be called the one in five hundred year storm, which is what actually is being turned out one in five hundred years. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple years, and we're now looking at one one hundred year events happening every two to three years in the united states with the the horican activity that we've been seen.

I think a lot of the conspiracy theory are built on actual experiments that happened. This one project, storm fury, i'm sure you know about, was to try to modify hurricanes by putting in some chemicals that would freeze them and delve them so they're kind of dulling get a part. Yeah, great apart. So you know, there have been experiments here with altering weather, altering hurricanes. That doesn't mean it's policy or you know the selected .

let's get back to press tag so well, let's talk about the economy. So there's five hundred billion to a trillion dollars a real estate value on the floor to costly and what used to be a one in a hundred event, the average floor D A home monter historically has been paying about one percent of the real est value and insurance. So now if your real estate is likely to be wiped out one out of every twenty years instead of one out of every five hundred years, the cost of insurance gets to the point that IT is untenable ble for most people to pay for their insurance. Florida has a state backy insurance provider called the florida hurricane catastrophe for fund, and this fund issues debt to meet its coverage demands because IT reinsurance insurance companies in order to in incentivize them to come into the state.

And and you you should explain the looper, which is you go and get a mortgage. The bank says you need to get insurance if i'm onna lend you the money to buy the home. So then a bunch of insurer need to decide that the willing to underwrite that area. And then when they give you that insurance, they then wanted lay that risk, go to a reinsure. Is that the cycle?

That's right. And what's happening is they would Normally underwrite that risk. They would say this is gonna a cost. You're onna lose the value of your home every hundred years, every two hundred years.

But now the models are showing because of the frequency of these sorts of hurricane vents and the severity of the hurricane vents, that maybe you'll lose the value of your home once every twenty years or once every thirty years, and no consumer is going to be willing or able to pay that much for the insurance on their home. So the state, over the last several years has had to step in and effectively subsidized the insurance. And now the state reinsurance vehicle only has statuary liability maximum of seventeen billion dollars in a single hurricane season.

Now I think they got lucky with milton today, but some were estimating that the millton losses, we're gonna an access of a hundred billion bigger than Katrina. It's likely as of this morning, the reinsurance um websites are all saying it's probably a forty to fifty billion dollar loss event, which still exceeds the state to reinsurance capacity. So you can kind of think about florida state to reinsurance being being effectively bankrupt. IT doesn't really have the capacity to underwrite the insurance anymore. So the real question for everyone is, is the federal government going to have to step in and start to support the Price of homes?

Because if they don't know, it's a terrible president to set. Because if you do IT for florida, then you'll have to do IT in texas and li sian and mississippi, arizona and texas. There's gonna be no way to create a clear departure of who gets a bail out and who doesn't win, which, which will mean that everybody will get a bail out or nobody gets a bail up. That's right. And if everybody gets a payout, and if you think about how systematically unpredictable, at least in the southern states, the weather is, you're going to be talking hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

Probably the total value of all mortgage in home, home moor mortgage in florida is four hundred fifty four billion dollars. And those people typically have you know a debt to equity ratio probably on the fifty eighty percent range. So of the value of your home dips by twenty five percent because everyone starts selling their homes leaving florida, they can get insurance. Then the people that live in florida, most of them have their network tied up in their home, are going to see their personal network White out or cut in in half. So it's not just an economic problems of social problem that now there are so many people that have put their entire network into their home, the value their home is written to a point that is no longer make sense given the frequency at which homes are .

you going to get destroy in. That's probably the reason why they'll have to do IT because but then that calculation will have to happen for every single home on or in every single data where this is this is an issue. Yeah.

great freebies. Are you saying the entire florida sine is no longer economically viable? No.

it's totally viable. Just the question is, what are you going to ice? At what Price will you pay? Five percent your home value for insurance every year? You know what you pay, two percent.

three percent. If the expected life of a houses twenty years, then no, that's not.

that's not by IT becomes very, very untenable. Well.

IT used to be one in five hundred years.

Now it's only one and six is the supply to the entire costlier, just parts of IT?

Well, I mean, you saw that the range at which these events can happen is all over the place and the and the chAllenges, the events are getting more significant because of this warm ocean weather, that we see this warm ocean temperatures. So more is more.

The framework is that now people are building the first couple of laws and high rises in miami and homes on stilts with concrete and with resistance salt water resistant material. So there is a counter to this. So we might be looking .

investment and climate resilience.

So you might actually be an opportunity to Operate all these to resistant ones using another set of technologies. But the ballot is really interesting. Two sacks, because flowers got a lot of electoral ill h college votes doesn't like, I hate to bring this back topology s but you know, promising people bailouts is how this politicians seem to be getting votes these days.

Anyone talking about a federal bailout, this is something. Think what free .

brick is saying is that there's a there's a pretty obvious prate of terribles here where the question will have to be answered one way or the other. Because if you only have a seventeen billion dollar reinsurance fund and there's fifty billion of damage, somebody he's gonna have to come in and cover the gap. And if it's the insurance companies expect your insurance premiums to double or triple.

that's right. And that's what happened in california. And by stay farm left a lot of california.

What I was to say, most of these big insurance companies have already done the calculus to realize that these regions are no longer profitable enough to justify the downside. Bigger problem. So then the the ones that are left are involved reinsured or insures that are just funding short term arms because they know that the ods are they are going to get wiped out to the Price.

Gw, effectively. So you know, a different example is that here where I live in menlo park, we're not in a flood plane, we're not in a fire region, no of that stuff. But in order for us to get home insurance, you have to now go through a risk assessment.

And in our specific case, we were like, k, what should we do with our roof? And they're like, you gotta take the roof of, if you want, home entrance were like, and probably good, was A A D shake of, has a beautiful word, shake roof. And we to remove IT.

And the two choices were a three hundred and fifty thousand hours, like I or like seven D K for composite. And its like this is insane. And there the cost of insurance was just agreeable in the absence of going in one. Anyways, we entered up in the for most home owners.

when the cost of insurance gets to a certain classes you don't have budget for, you can't afford IT. And so that's a lot of why the insure leave underwrite anything at any Price, but they just know that most consumers afford. Here's some other interesting statistic related but unrelated.

In the early one thousand nine hundred and hundreds, the city of phenix, arizona averaged five days a year of temperatures of a hundred and ten degrees or warmer by the twenty ten finex average during the twenty tens, twenty seven days a year, with the temperature was one ten or higher since twenty twenty one teens every hundred forty two days. And in twenty twenty four, it's been seventy days so far this year that the temperatures is over one hundred and ten. So this is affecting and so is there's increased risks in california wildfires incase, but hrk ane, there are a lot of these factors. And I have friends that work in reinsurance and .

insurance markets even if you don't get affected by a wall fire disaster. When that that article was in the wall street journal, I think I said that um the number of average days above a hundred was like a hundred something yes and and the profile they profile this retired woman who is an insurance suggested something.

And the whole point of the article was not that her her house was destroyed or at risk, but the cost of electricity has gone just absolutely sky yeah, even with solar panels, even with storage, you need to basically lean on the grid. And the grid now just charges you an exorbitant count of money. And so these these folks are paying thousands of dollars year. So if imagine the the try factor, you have all of this climate risk that could destroy your home, you are paying an enormous premium for home insurance. And then you're paying an enormous premium for electricity from the mainline power utilities that it's it's not sustainable.

Yeah and just for the background manages something called the n fit national flood insurance plan and it's historically about fifty percent cheaper than private flat insurance. They have four point seven million active policies providing one point three trillion in coverage. But they instituted a new risk assessment system and that cause rates to increase.

And yeah, it's a because of all this, the policies have decreased over the last couple years, meaning less people have flood insurance at the same time that these things are getting worse. And so yeah, this is A A really tough issue. I wonder if this is an opportunity to mah. If you think about historically how insurance worked, IT worked in communities where people would help each other out to born raising kind of events when somebody had a problem. So if we just put on our entrepreneur heads here, if you look at the cost of insurance, if a hundred different people bundle LED the cost of your homes together, put money into some sort of platform like an uber, airbnb marketplace, and there are some management structure here of self insurance because I know some people are doing self insurance for health care at their companies for this kind of thing. Do you think there's going to be a new business opportunity here?

And it's called mutual, and those are like a good chunk of the industry are mutuals where it's uh the shareholders are the members and they all share.

The rest is in the otherness. Those is those things work because you have broad geographic cover. If you have to go just in demo and self, ensure the rates would literally be the greater than the value no one would pay into IT.

So if you do proper underwriting, what happened in the last couple of years, all the insurance companies, insurance committees have had to reorder, write the rates that they charge for insurance because the frequency of a disaster has gone up and the new Price that they should be charging is so high. I doesn't matter how the capital structure set up is simply there. There's one big event that's going to cause a big White out for a large number.

My personal belief is I think that the the real state markets in some of these places are meaningfully is Priced. And specifically, what I mean is that they are massively overPriced. That's right.

Because I think when you actually account for the climate damage and the long term financial stability of the insurer and the reinsurer, I don't think that many of the markets that have seen these crazy sky high Prices are named to to be specific west palm beach and malo. So both end of the coast, these things just don't make sense. And I think people view these things as investments.

But on the west coast, when you deal with things like soil rose and other things, I think it's say there's it's a calamity waiting to happen. And I think on the east coasts, manufactured in the extreme weather conditions, even Jason, your comment about rebuilding these homes in a more full proof way doesn't solve IT because IT, you cannot be able to rebuild the entire state. There's a lot of people that just can't afford IT. There's a lot of folks that will not have adequate coverage. So I just think these are disasters willing to happen, unfortunately.

Yeah, it's in sex. There is a movement right now. A lot of people even have means are renting their homes. And so in the real estate market, where do you thoughts on that? Just renting verses buying now becoming like a something that you know people in the in the top half of homeowner or potential homeowners are now electing to not own their home and rent have been I hadn't heard that.

I mean, the trend that I thought was happening was said you had these big funds, like black rock, whatever, buying up huge numbers of homes and then running .

them to low .

low end or medium ah you know to families. I thought that so was going on. I have to heard that at the high of the range that people were. Well.

you think about IT like there seems to be a cap when you have a ten million dollar home of what you can possibly rented for. And IT is the the the Prices are now making more sense to keep more sense to keep your money in the market or other places and then rent.

I'm just a free are you are you long real estate in florida or coastal california, if you could? Or do you treat them differently?

I think they're different. But florida, like I mean, I don't know how you do the math on. I I just don't know what you do on a trillion dollar is a realised value with half a trillion mortgages. When you have real exposure on loss more frequently than one than one hundred years, the tear point they need to be rePriced. And how do you rePriced those homes in the significant level that they need to be rePriced without causing massive economic and social consequence? That's what that's what kind of, I think, chAllenging me and thinking about what's the path here.

So is a good thing that I sold my miami place.

I once again actually is a great trade, pretty awesome. And sex, you talk to IT again. Well done, sax.

just like I really love I love that house on .

you love that house think I say, when was yeah you're so selfish I who lost the lost the place to stay I mean, the yard access alone and being able to get out on the bang, get the boat the see, do all the great stuff uh, I let let's keep the freebies train going here. Huge news. Alphago creators just want a noble prize in chemistry.

Two members of google deep mind A I research team, demis habis and john jumper, received this year s nobel Price in chemistry. They both work for gu deep mind and, you know, and freeburg, again, all in getting their first explained what alpine ld was back on episode fourteen in december of twenty twenty. That was almost four years ago. freeburg. Maybe you could explain.

we did we predict that they would win the nobel prize?

I believe you did. I will go check the receipts. IT became IT became .

much more likely that they would win the nobel after they won the breakthrough Price. I mean, just just a point this out.

But yeah, yeah, shout out you.

Shut up, you in Julia.

Julia.

because when those guys won that award for twenty, twenty three and you you heard the extent of what they've done, IT was almost like obvious that they were going to win nobel after the fact. So I think the really interesting thing is actually in this community, I think the Price Price is actually meaningfully more relevant and a positive directional indicator .

to break through science. Winning sundance or can you win the palm door? You become a favorite to win at the Oscars s right in the academy.

The words so that's actually interesting. The regional or more industry centric C A word could lead to the next one fever. Just explain to us why this is so important.

But I think, I just think it's much more rigged than the nobel. I think the nobel can be a little bit game. I think interesting.

Okay, what do you think free? But you explain to the audience why this is important and then what's transport? Since we talked about four years ago.

there has been a long chAllenge in biochemistry on understanding or predicting or visualizing the three dimensional structure of of proteins. Because, remember, proteins are produced by long change of a minor assets, and those many assets are kind of create like a beat, beat necklace. And then the the whole necklace st collapses on itself in a very specific way.

And that three dimensional molecule, that big, chunky protein, does something structurally, physically. And so trying to understand the shape of a protein is really hard. I mean, we use kind of x ray imaging systems to try and identify IT and try to build model, to identify how is that protein folding work out of those mini acid collapse on each other to create that three international concert. And if I don't know if you guys remember, in the early two thousands, there was a stanford folding at home distributed computing project.

You just remember this, yeah, you would use people's machines and extra C.

P, U, like the city at home project, to be background your, your, use your C P U cycles when you want, using your computer. And I tried to model protein folding.

And so this has been A A problem that pride to tackle with compute for decades, to figure out the 3d structure。 This is so important, because if we can identify the three structure of proteins and we can predict them from the imminent ID sequence, we can print out a sequence of a minal assets to make a protein that does a specific thing for us and that unlocked the ability for humans, secret biomolecules that can do everything from binding cancer to breaking apart pollutants and plastics to um you know uh creating entirely new molecules to running in some cases, like what David Baker did, a university, washington. And he shared the nobel prize creating micro motors, mini motors, from proteins that he designed on a computer.

And so this becomes, I think, this great, like big holy grail in biochemistry and the alcohol project. A deep mind inside of google solve this problem. And and by the way, since since then they've come out with alpha three. They've launched a drug discovery company called isotopic labs, where basically predicting molecules that will do specific things for a target indication, and then they use the often fold models to actually design and developed those molecules.

And there have been literally dozens of companies that have been started since deep mind was published and probably several billion dollars of capital that's gone into companies that are creating new drugs, creating new industrial biotech applications using this protein modeling capability that was unleased with deep mind a number years ago. So IT really has transformed the industry. It'll be a couple years before we see .

a transport the world. But uh, it's it's an exciting and urging al here. But are plus ze prins pass size proteins, pass size problems? Yes, one one really difficult to technical question for your free work.

Is there any way through to take this amazing breakthrough and make sex interested in there? Are any possible vector here for its relate to sax? And get him off his blackberry right now.

Blackberry, I think he's playing chess with T, O, N, J advances, watching them play chess. I think that's what's going on right now. It's really hard.

I mean, the four audience here is watching sexually back. Let's keep this strain moving here. Enough of this.

Anyway, congrats to the teams. The very great one 进展 到 第二天， me and and David Baker, the Baker live and university .

and David share also break through here. What's interesting to mean is like these two nobels, these guys, but also jeffrey hintings, you know, you're really seeing now the convergence of the heart sciences and computer science totally in a really meaningful way. And I think that that's so interesting and cool.

I think in the group chat trauth, you had interesting, hey, maybe there should be a computer science award for, you know, a nobel computer science word. And I actually .

think it's the opposite now, which is that it's amazing to see folks using computers to improve our understanding of the natural sciences. And I think that that's a really great place to be. So what demon john and David are doing, the life science is amazing what Jeffery hinton, you know, did thirty and forty years ago and twenty years ago in terms of training deep, neil, that's also really amazing in .

related computer base yeah computer base. In related news, bending just donated himself for excEllence in crm management. So congratulations to burning off on innominata .

mp for .

about what .

that what are? What do you do? Have you not learned anything?

The .

people that atack, if you is, how. The part exact, do people have a sense of humor about yourself.

but it's not, it's not even funny if you had something else.

I mean, okay, give me a, give me a funny a nobel .

ahead and runs a three .

hundred billion market. Come back the and explain why A I is not.

Oh, we see.

He wants to be back the boxing me.

he wants to come on, will check in a hundred billion dollars. He had a chance. That chance is closed.

He did not land.

That door was closed when he insulted, I guess, not being .

able to offer.

Oh my god, your piles in on anybody .

coming to dream force twenty twenty five? Okay, let's move on.

sorry. Anyways.

leave any off alone is like a leave britty alone. That famous me. Leave any off alone.

So how many new enemies do you want to create?

I just, just, just just people just chokes this when you .

thought he was turning out of fuel. You know.

i'm not to do with anybody. I'm making stupid jokes. The reason people turn in is because you laugh and learn.

Did you can see that that tweet that somebody suggested throwing a conference with all of J, K. haters?

这次 看。 谁 看 jats js convention？

What is that called jats?

Jatra js, yeah, just matters. jeers. yeah. I'd like to shout out my jeers.

They're just joke phones. I I love you. Work plenty of h come on the project.

I think somebody could summer just doing that, get ready made audience and there clearly, clearly passion.

Although why founders, i'll be there.

Keynote day one, palmer lucky. Keynote day two, David sex.

I think IT arrival, the all in summer, in terms of the passion of the fan.

three of I would be, so .

what .

you have, I .

have to Better up.

I like Better you up. I do not try to make up.

He just have a .

sense of you, the chat make you tell you .

and farmer lucky at .

you oh my god, he was I was .

brutal to second .

really .

what he just.

anyway, what you're right like.

know, throwing a conference for jay haters with this, but I already made matters. That is an underserved and passionate demographic .

would be biggest and demographic because look at sexy replies, community with shared values. Hey, man, if I can get twenty five percent of those take itself. I mean, let's go.

Alright, let's keep the train moving. Here we have an update on the D O, jays anti tra suit with google. Looks like they're going for the breakup as chamar predicted.

You remember the bloomberg report back in August recovered an episode ninety two. Google is found liable for maintaining a monopoly in search and visual ads. Now the D O J is working on the remedy, right? Okay, their guilty are now comes time for the remedy. And the D O J is, quote is from blue work considering asking a federal judge to force google to sell off parts of its business. And according to this filing, the D O J is specifically considering structural remedies that would prevent google from using products such as chrome, google play, that's the apple store on android, and android itself to advantage google search.

Thirty two page document released by the dog lays out several options, and that will go through them and talking about him here, the obvious one, terminating google exclusive agreements with harvard companies like apple, that the devolved search in there for thirty or forty, sixty year samsung, that's a little a separating m in android. My god, that would be drastic gripping that out of the google ecosystem, prohibiting certain kinds of data tracking and layup as well, or other behavioral and structural changes for the company and to pause their freedoms. G, and get your thoughts on this. As a former google and you interviewed sergey at the summit, but I don't think we talk to survey about this because obviously he would not be able to talk about IT. So what are your thoughts on a potential revenue?

I think talking about this, I mean, i've shared in the past my belief that companies that are big, that have access capital, that then invest, that access capital and R N D can be a APP benefit for all of us. Look at bell labs.

Bell labs had a monopoly on through their association with A T N T, with developing radar, microwave, the transition stor, integrated circuitry, information theory, everything that is the basis of the internet, computer, even nuclear technology and so on. It's because they have this extraordinary capital flow from the scale the business may able to invest in. Or indeed similarly, google acquired and invested for many, many years in deep mind.

And we just talked about how demos on team on the uh uh the nobel prize for the work that they did and they, by the way, published the protein structure for two hundred million proteins for free out of that service. I just want us to zoom out for a minute and talk about the fact that this isn't about, you know, whether google has a monopoly in search that prohibits petition or in ads that prohibits competition. But or do, is that really worth analyzing any company that big particularly, do we lose the benefit of those big companies investing in technology that pushes us forward? Google also invested in way more for years and years and years, which arguably spurned and drove investment from many other companies in self driving technology.

And google hadn't done that. Which self driving have taken off the way I did? I don't know. Same with Kitty hawk and Larry is investment in E. V tall and that that spend a lot of E V tall investing. And similarly, if you think about amazon and their investment in A W U S, where they were burning cash for many years, that turned out to span arguably a lot of an interest in investment in cloud. And so I I don't think that these big companies are bad just because they're big.

I think we should take a part the monopolistic anti trust actions and behaviors that they take and then identify ways to remedy those behaviors versus just saying anyone or anything that's big to be taken apart because there is a tremendous benefit to be gained from the R N D dollars that they all put into things that you know move the whole industry forward. And I think that leadership is important to need IT. Otherwise, if you got a match of startups that are trying to get ten million dollar checks from VC is i'm not sure they're na build a way more and i'm not sure they're going to build uh, amazon cloud and i'm not sure they are gone to build a deep mind, you know protein folding company .

and published for free. So I don't pretty good with these predictions, tell us we will be sitting here five years from now. What will have occurred.

Unfortunately, not what freeburg just said. It'll be the opposite. It'll be some form of force dramedy. I'm sympathetic to freeburg's argument.

I don't think that it's really a good thing in the end because I do think there are some incredible examples of google specifically reinvesting in a way that's really add value in the world. I think the problem though is that the technology innovation cycle has gotten too along gated. So you're not seeing creative destruction be the natural force that keeps all of these companies in their own swimming. And so they are allowed to become too amorphous and too profitable. And I think IT becomes an obvious target for politicians.

I think that's a really good observation. They're about the timely of this because if you look at this, I have started now and I know many people are starting their search journey on claud and ChatGPT every day. I'm doing thirty, forty, fifty queries and follow up per day.

I forced my entire team to do that as well. And so just as there is an actual viable competitor to google, this action has reached, I don't know, the halfway mark. This is gonna to be completely meaningless sex. If ChatGPT does build a viable competitive co existed, that cyphers of search. Am I wrong here?

Well, IT is ironic that frequently the government takes actions on these monopoly at precisely the moment. There are subjective to the greatest disruption, the same thing I of microsoft in the way. But IT was still a good thing that the government active when IT did because there was a risk of microsoft porting over its destino poly into this new year of the internet.

I think it's still a good thing to be looking at breaking up google. I actually think that would be good at the end of the day, might be good for shareholders. This thing should be probably three separate companies like we've talked about our previous show.

But IT is true that google is facing the most especial threat to its search monopoly. IT is in the form of OpenAI at this point time. I have one final .

thought here and piece of advice for survey in the team over the internet. When I told her go directly, they have to get good at making apps to go use ChatGPT. You take out the APP and it's a wonderful, beautiful experience.

When you go try to figure out how do you use gi, it's like showering into search results and then it's like some sub domain. That's why people aren't using IT. Go by the domain in chat tocom and make IT dedicated out .

just for germany I and making kick s hundred and suck apps. We said this one when you ask about the bare case of open eye, if the deal jay is gonna go after google. And by the way, the interesting thing Jason and I mention this to you is that in the same article that floated the trial balloon about this remedy of a google break up, the headline in the wall street journal, which I think was very purpose, said google and metal.

So I think that they, if given their brothers, they being the powers that be a washington, we'll probably want to take a lot about these companies. They'll start with the one that they think they can disassemble the quick kest. And I go, go to matter afterwards.

My strong advice to matter. And google is, if this is gonna happen, you got to go out kicking and punching and fighting and scratching. And I think the most obvious thing is what you just said, Jason, which is you are the front jorth in the internet.

And there is this completely new emerging technology. And where is the same response to ChatGPT that you had to x or that you had to snap chat or that you had to tiktok? Because if it's gonna happen, it's gonna happen and then you might just go for IT.

Yes, build the apps, make them kick us, make the ChatGPT alternative and get IT to billions of people yesterday. That would be the most logical game theory thing to do, to build up a pool of users that you will rely on when the D, O, J tries to come with some consent, decree or what not. So this is the time to build up the assets now as aggressively as possible.

Yeah and a selling youtube would be the ultimate I know that the ad network you put out brog are connected, but if they distributed in, they give you or give you something about the ad thing. Can you imagine five hundred billion dollars going into google scoffers in youtube chairs, and we have five hundred billion in cash to mah?

I had, I talked to a company, he A C year of of a public consumer facing company. And this was in the context of some eighty ninety stuff. And he said that he and two other CEO, the three of them, you guys, we all know, these are very big companies.

The three of them combined are particularly large. And they said theyve had multiple road maps to try to build a reasonable set of tools and advertising. And it's been impossible.

And partly, why is that the tools that the big folks offer are so good that they just canabal zed and run over the entire market. And so what they hear from C. M. O S is we would love to advertise on your company, your site, but a, your tools are substandard and b, even though your inventory is cheaper, you just don't give us the same scale and breath that we get in these other big places.

How that saying that that's either right or wrong, but through the lens of probably what the D O J S is when a lot of these folks, right letters to them talking about what they're going through, this is what they're saying. And I suspect that if you could actually have a more fragmented market in some of these key markets, it's gonna a little bit easier for the smaller companies to have a business. Yeah, now you could say, well, tough luck, you try and you couldn't build IT.

I get that argument and I and I think that, that at some point, that is legitimate. But the problem is if you're public and you try to make your company profitable, what your engineers want to work on, they want to work on consumer facing four features. And so what always falls off the list is the stuff at the end.

the and so anyway.

it's this recursive negative loop that a lot of these other companies are in, in the shadow of these big companies that I think it's onna cause the D O J to try to do something.

You know, this is a great set up for m, in a great set for ibs start to look like. And this is a multiyear administration case that's been going right. I think they started under trump, went into bite in and is now going to continue on to trump or or Harris. So what are your thoughts here, sax? Well.

in terms of the political environment for monday next year? Yeah, yeah. I mean, so obviously depends which administrations in power. A lot of democrats mean a prominent democrats. Tech like mark ba read often of making the case that if coma is president, she's can be much more hospitable and friendly towards ma and theyve been saying explicit that they want leena con fired. Well, in response to that, aoc just came out and said we're going to thrown down if you do that.

So I don't I would not expect a substantial difference or improvement in the in the regulatory permissiveness towards ema if if we have a democratic administration, if that if you have trump in office next year, I think that there there will be an opening up of M, N, A. I think the republicans have their own issues with big tech, but those issues tend to revolve around censorship and bias and search results and L, M, things like that, as opposed to big ness per say. So I think I will be easier to get ema done next year if you have a republican. Ministration.

absolutely, I am going to be printing money. Pt administration, IT is going to be up. Seen how many, many ideals and ibs are going to occur. There are such a huge backlog. But I do think I do think democrats want to get this moving as well. And I was talking to read hofman, I knew, and P O T O in the aluminum I meeting, and they voted one hundred and ninety to two to replacement in economy in the aluminium .

you make via Jason.

Oh, really, they don't understand that i'm joking about the alumina.

They are. They often well.

i've started the low I Q lichens who don't know that the alumina .

hot is not real or .

you're in not no, I am a he tried to sell tickets to the, sell tickets s to the jitters ball for buck nasty zut nai chain cowl is the biggest hate in the tech industry. You ever see the haters ball sex show that looks like between the time we mentioned IT on the pod, it's it's actually happening here. IT is the gators ball is happening there. IT is.

we need to come. David.

why am I there? Because you have lighter here.

You can be A K note. You're the, i'm the. okay. Well, i'm in the MC there.

Look there, there sucked nasty and there's palmer. Lucky you guys don't notice the bid from shapely ball from show. Now, oh my god, is the funniest bit on show. All show.

It's literally I M the .

they have all of these pimps who have a yearly convention, which is their .

player hate. And i've seen this. I've seen there .

with like a tooth pick in and they hate on each other.

fun of each other. IT funniest .

bit in the history of the supo show. All right, let's keep the train moving here. CRV is giving back, or maybe not calling down, two hundred seventy five million from their L.

P. S. Charles, revenge shadow to my pound, George a.

And greek brother from C. R. V. Historically, they invest in early day shtuck. They did door dash, air table, twitter back in the day.

They had two funds that they raised back in two thousand, twenty two billion dollar early stage fund, in five hundred million growth fund. Sometimes people call that an opportunity fund or a select fund, the new york times reported. C.

R, V is going to give back about half of that hundred seventy five million to investors, or technically probably not call IT down before partners at C. R. V gave an exclusive to the new york times.

So either getting ahead of this story or maybe, you know who knows what the motivation here is, but the reason they gave is that the market condition for late stage have worsened dramatically and that the valuations are still too high. Yes, the rent is too high and that there aren't any exit options, as we just talked about with the administration. No ibs, no m na.

And that VC map doesn't work in the late stage. So i'll just stop there. There's a bunch of rather no tear. Obviously, this isn't the first time this has happened.

I think founder run cut the size of its eighth fund in half from one point eight billion to nine hundred million, didn't actually give the capital back to VS like they're saying, sir, we did here again. Not certain if that's what's happened or not. They put the extra in nine hundred million into its nine fund if they did to raise that was assuming founder and well, to make you have .

any thoughts on this, I I guess because we have two stories years, so I don't know. Peter, Peter til did this, and he gave back quite a large piece of his fun a couple years ago. And then C, R, V.

Just stated, I I want to make sure I get the citi. I think IT, was Thomas the fund that go to who said this IT was really powerful that made a huge impressionable my, which is that the asc creates about eight hundred billion dollars of enterprise value a year. And he brought that up in the context of private markets have to exceed that in order for IT to be a real viable alternative to just owning public indexes.

And so if you factor illiquidity risk and the duration, you have to probably generate general a trillion, one point two trillion dollars of enterprise value in private tech every year. That just seems like it's really hard to do. Where is all of that value getting created? So I think that venture needs to go through a phase where IT, rerated, ized, you know, this is sort of what I said David's R P day, which is I think that L P S have made a couple of very big mistakes.

And I think the biggest mistake that they've made is by smearing too much money across too many general partners. And I think if you had to redo IT, a is probably a lot less money in total. But b and the example I gave there was, instead of giving fifty million dollars to craft and ten million dollars to somebody else, you're Better off giving sixty million dollars to craft and not even having that other gp, because that G P makes everybody's life complicated.

They overpay. They must pay. They are probably not supposed to be A G, P. In the first place. And so they force returns down. And then when you contrast that again to a public market that is systematically creating eight hundred billion dollars of enterprise value a year, this is an incredibly tough game and it's getting much, much harder.

So I think that if you just take a step back, these are the right things to do because you're much Better off having a smaller pool of capital that you can concentrate into things that matter. You're probably Better off having smaller teams versus bigger teams, and you're probably Better off trying to forge helping relationships where they're not doing fifty fund d investments because IT just makes the entire industry lag public liquid alternatives. And I think that that's just not good .

people Better. Again, spread a little bit then there. Any thoughts freeburg on this trend if we can call IT that IT? Or is this like maybe they're reacting right? Is the market is changing and valuations are getting more reasonable and the exit opportunities are getting more reasonable? That seems like this was the right reaction two years ago, but maybe it's the wrong reaction now. What do you .

think for for venture firm to return capital, they need to have at least one or two big winners. And so if that winner needs to be a ten x or twenty x or thirty x of the fund because most of the investments and the fund are not going to work, you need to be able to enter at a reasonable Price. And there needs to be enough opportunity relative to the capital trying to invest in that opportunity up there for to make sense.

So in the market where there is access venture capital, where valuations are at a premium and where you don't see the exit path, the ema or the I P O events, that makes sense that you can actually realize that model. You should take less capital and make fewer shore investment. And I think that that's what if some folks ever realized they don't want to be chasing um you know highly valued inflated opportunities and they don't want to be putting capital into tear b for tier c opportunities just for the sake of deploying capital.

This is a really interesting moment where you can kind of see who are the the right folks in terms of inking long term in silicon valley, long term in terms of building and investment practice and private venture and maybe who are folks that are trying to build their A U M. Stack and folks who have done reasonably well, like founders fund, has probably the most exceptional track record in silicon valley as a venture firm. They are very cognizant of the market conditions, and I think they're being very smart.

By the way, the other thing i've heard from L P, as is there similarly trying to find more concentrated capital themselves. So they're trying to put more capital to work in fewer managers. And so there's A A real week from the chef moment happening in solon valley venture right now. What I think a couple years ago was, hey everyone, gonna go do a start up a few years ago became everyone's going to go due a venture fund. And now I think the froth that has occurred because that is being cleared out.

And to just explain this math before I get sexes thoughts on this, if this was a five hundred million dollar fund, let's say they were putting twenty five million dollars into each, and we will take management fees out of twenty five million dollars into each opportunity. At a billion dollar valuation. They were on two and half percent.

Obviously, of those firms, they need to get probably a thirty billion dollar power law exit of 3 ax ax in order to just return the fund。 You'll be some illusion obviously along the way. That's why it's not twenty x. And the number of companies that go from a billion to thirty billion recycle is incredibly the uber coin base arbi. N B, it's a really short, less time sex in recent .

history. And look, just go back to the C, R. V thing. You said at the outset of the conversation that this was either a growth fund or an opportunities fund that makes a really big .

difference exchange.

Because while opportunities fund typically exist to back up your winners, in other words, if the venture fund is producing simply winners, the opportunity fun exist to deploy more capital into those into those companies as opposed to a growth fund, which is you be underwriting brain new companies from scratch. Typically, an opportunity und is limits at to companies.

Are you ready in the best in through your venture fund? So that makes a big difference. Mean, if serial as a billion dollar a venture fund and only a five hundred million of opportunities fund, IT may just be the case that they don't need all of that capital to back of the winter.

They can do their paradise out of the main fund. So I I suspect that, that might be what's going on, I actually thinks is a pretty good time to have a growth fund. A lot of well because a lot of the cross over capital has .

left the ecosystem for .

yeah .

and a tiger .

and and and soft maker still around. But there are other very large investors had funds and so on who had come into the ecosystem of billions dollars a few years ago and now they've left. And some of those funds you are talking about, like tiger used, be two billion funds.

another two billion right right size. They're not violence ended doing, I mean, the tiger deals and understanding they weren't joining the board and a lot of the cases and they were outsource in the diligence and that was a pretty violent pace.

No, yeah, this is the time and probably five years have a growth fund. interesting. But to to your point about the size of the venture fund, the bigger the venture fund, the bigger the winner that you need to make that pay off, obviously.

yes. And so because of the power law taking example, I don't know. See if you ve got a billion dollar venture fund. Let's say that at IPO, you own ten percent of whatever that the winner is.

And because of the power law, your fun performance is really determined by your best outcome, right? Yeah so in order to take a one million other venture fund and say deliver three ex no so three billion of returns. And your best company, you on ten percent of that employs you a thirty billion dollar winner in that fund. And there are a precious few outcomes where you have a thirty billion dollar IPO. right?

Yeah, I just happen very down on two hand ycl. I you got uber, you got Robin heard you got clean base strike will eventually come out. You got space sex. Well, that was two cycles ago. So I mean.

yeah, you're going need to have a meaning of position and a massive company in order to make a fun off. The data that I think L P, look at shows that smaller venture funds tend to perform Better. For this reason, five hundred, six hundred million dollars funds. So yeah, I person wouldn't want the pressure of a billion dollar venture fund that would be really hard as five or six in a billion dollar or venture fund you kind of need to have or or want to have like a deca corn outcome to make that a great fund. But to have to have a thirty billion or plus outcome, it's even more difficile.

Moving on, you just published some really interesting research on tiktok. Um if you don't know the few study they've been doing a for decades, it's very well reselected um and bipartisan or non partisan. Four in ten U.

S. Adults age eighteen to twenty nine are now regularly getting their news from tiktok. You're some charts free to take a look at. As you can see, the Younger generation is really spending a lot of time on tiktok in getting a lot of their news there.

I know this because, yeah, i've talked to a bunch of kids about this and people that use tiktok, fifty two percent are regular getting their news from the platform, and that number has skyrocket compared to other social platforms. Take a look at this chart. Here's x fifty nine percent of people say they get their news at xx.

It's really a news platform. So that makes totally sense. You look at a facebook, it's me know, forty percent right now.

Read IT, thirty three percent. Youtube, thirty seven percent in twenty twenty four. Instagram, forty percent by tiktok, fifty two, up from twenty two percent. So it's no longer just dancing.

And this is the reason, I think, many people in the government were concerned about the attack vector that the ccp would have in the united states, since they still control the company for services like snaps, chap linked in and WhatsApp. And next door is below to twenty, below thirty percent. Get their news from there.

There are truth, social, uh, sex, fifty seven percent are people get used there in rumble, forty eight percent. So what would you take away from from this just sex? Looking at IT in this impact that tiktok as as as concerning our national security level since the algorithms of black box and you could tweeks IT, if you really wanted to, to really changed sentiment. And um Young people are obviously very impressionable on this platform and their big users of well.

I thought there was other data in the study that should calm people's fears that tiktok would somehow to use as a political weapon. So in the same survey you're talking about, ninety five percent of adults use tiktok, say they use IT because is entertaining. So that's the main reason people use IT and only ten percent of accounts followed by us adults post content related to political.

social issues. And that's posting.

And the main reason, right this year, ninety percent of the accounts that get followed or even posting political or social issues there are there for entertainment as people watching, dance videos as people watching. I I mean, now that the same thing, I use the forest watch, restful highlights. So a restless guy.

Yeah, i'm a restless fan. what? Yeah you are .

into this cobolli theater of wrestling?

This is twenty twenty. I get my W W E on on tiktok per fly.

snooker. Who you are .

and I names I like.

I also love the road warriors, a ultimate warrior. I loved I. I was a huge dressing fan.

I was the one thing that my dad bonded over. We would watch rustling every saturday. sexed. You ever watch the the specials on saturday night? Like, yeah.

was the era of hole cogan, for sure, saturday night .

main event.

And wich, great. Yeah, I may look, my all time favorite was, don't cold. Steve Austin.

still cold.

This crime, I marked out the hardest for all.

He, he was anti walk before anti walk became a thing.

This is crazy. You guys are into restless me.

Hold, have you .

gone .

to a their moments when when hogan turned .

heel and joined the the was at the nwo? That was like a big moment.

I'm a big andy, often restful fan. That was my only interest when when andy off came. From them but a in confer yeah I was .

like in the one thousand nine hundred and seventy.

Wasn't that or was the late eighties was on daily water men, which Jerry walter and he he comes to a wrestler match sacks in the south .

and get I up .

and right? So he goes there and he gets in the ring and he says, all of you, red nex, I want to show you some new inventions. This is called so, and this is called the wash cloth.

And you use IT to clean yourself. And he's like, just mocking the southern accent. And Jerry, ella, remember Jerry ala snacks him. And on letter.

man of the great. This was a good, I mean, where I grew up because that this was like on the local news. Yes, when I grew up in meters, there was no professional sports teams. Okay, all we had was the memphis state basketball and and wrestling every day night of the south policy that is that was like professional sports.

And you also had probably like some state pairs or you know like best goats, best cheap or something .

later was so popular that he could have been elected mayor. In fact, I think there was one point of him back up mayor.

I mean, the gender champion.

And you guys like mouth of the self to my heart.

No hours. Yeah, yeah. He was amazing. He was like the main heal manager for a while now, before the ww took over, I guess called W W F back then. But there are all these little fiefdoms and kingdoms, and mdt south wrestling was like one of those kingdoms, and lawyer was like the king of IT. And then get all these guys come in and .

out and rustle freeburg. You ever watch restrooms and what you think of this? Tiktok, over by? I watch rustly. Okay, very good. And tiktok survey, anything where you know any thoughts?

Looks like they gathered some .

reasonable data. Okay, there.

go there. There's point point was that is mostly an entertainment APP where people go to watch dance reston clip style influencers and so on. And I think that this idea that is somehow I propaganda tool around you programing our youth, I think that's a moral panic that's been exaggerated.

What do you think the odds are that tiktok, it's hacked to allow you to passively listen even when the APP is not being used? Zero you think about zero.

No like five percent I think. Yeah because someone said that that was that was a there is some code that enabled that in the early version of the APP. And then some other people ordered to IT IT, and they said they did not find evidence that there is any technology.

And apples got a very good at system for the people. What's up? And then IT turned out that he was passively listen yeah that's what's up, passively listen. It's one of the it's one of the most well known breaches. 然后 maybe they maybe a hundred per sensor in that the C C.

P is using IT because they these people have tracked already journalists using IT. So if they've already done IT, it's one hundred percent I don't know about the passive listening, but any thoughts on fifty percent plus of Young people getting their new sia chmagh? And he knows on that. I mean, obviously, we don't have that is being used currently to manipulate, but it's over fifty percent of Young people are now getting their news there or say they are getting their news there.

So I had more than fifty percent Young people are getting their news from podcast and those podcast get chopped up and clipped and then people watch them on tiktok for .

I bet that is happening. There are a lot of people who think this show is a tiktok show. They don't know it's fiction.

Um will have to prepare for a brave new world in the following way there was an article, I think he was in the walls regional, that said that russia and iran for paying low level street criminals to create chaos. okay. And I and I read that article and I thought, OK 不， what does IT mean if you actually extrapolate this, which is that the hot words are very complicated, not worth doing.

These disruptive visuals are the Better way to. So chaos and IT occurred red to me. Then that tying is back to something that we saw before. IT does make sense for a lot of folks to sponsor a lot of long tail content that say a lot of different things. I think that that just is pretty obvious.

And so I think that if you put these two ideas together, IT stands the reason that a lot of people will be paying influencers a lot of money to create all kinds of content that is specific to a perspective that they have. And then on top of that, if you can algorithmically amplify one over the other, you know you, you're going to have issues. Is that the biggest issue in the world? Probably not. I also wouldn't .

swing an election, but I would cause chaos. And we just had the the sudden district new york target that russian russia today was giving ten million dollars to four podcasts ers. They even know they were getting paid by the russian. They just picked them because they were like their opinions. And they give them one hundred thousand and episode to to promote pro russian positions if the russians .

were actually doing this is the stupidest use of dollars ever because those pod casters already have their own channels, are already putting out lots of content, and this other content is a drop in the bucket. I think about the issue with what you're saying is just there is so much content out there already people created for free, people created, you know, because they have a career in IT. There's a whole long tail of influencers.

There is so much content out there already through podcast, through websites. It's all being chopped up that trying to do IT as some sort of disinformation strategy, I think, is very hard to do because it's just when there's billions and billions are of impressions. Any effort that you try to engineer ends up just being a drop .

in the bucket. Yes.

that's the problem that make sense there. A sense theory is very hard to do in practice.

yeah. The goal is not to win any specific argument, is to create mistrust in the entire news ecosystem, in the information system. M, so that people give up trying to figure out what the truth is. And that's what the .

actually the major media is doing, that on their own, the media life in our life. I was creating the distrust.

as are the russians paying off. Pod casters, okay.

let's not accomplish anything if that stories you think.

Great question answer.

Desperate theory.

not a expiry there at all. These were very low level mid. Like you tear B, C, D protesters.

If you give them a hundred thousand dollars for episode, they can spend more money buying cameras, promoting their shows, hiring people. So you're just finding people in dropping money on heads so they can do more of the same. So it's a very much ratee. In fact.

I think I think it's the student i've ever heard. They took pawpaw ers who already successful and paid them to release content through a less watch channel.

That's the yes, IT. IT was just more about getting the money to produce more content.

And then they in the guys are already guys already live streaming ing.

Like twenty four seven old is your puppy. Here he goes freeboard trying to win more people over with this puppy love. unbelievable.

The sky is absolutely ridiculous. unbelievable. All right, listen, let me give sex and red meat.

Here he got, he got his little stake to talk with my russia today story. Get a little amuse bush. And now I give you your tomhauk you ready? Sax, you want your time.

Hoc, you want IT rare. Here IT comes twenty twenty four. Election update the betting markets and polling indicate a really tight race. But maybe trump is surging. This we Polly market, which is a Betty market, has trump fifty five to forty five verses.

Comalong calls another betting market fifty two forty eight trump lavada and points that those are offshore booking and polymer is also offshore fifty two forty eight trump. Nate silver, friend of the pod, his algorithm has at fifty three, forty seven koala real clear polling that's an algorithm has combo with a two point lead. New york time sana como with three point lead.

Reuters, if so, pretty well trusted, uh, three point need for a commoner. N P R P B S maris poll has humble with a two point lead. So sport books and Betty markets are favouring ing trump slightly, while the polls are slightly favor cma sex.

I sliced IT up. Nice for you. You ve got nice ten slices and meet here. Which slice you going for?

Well, I think you reenters of the polls are kind of mixes up a couple of things. There is popular vote polls, and then there's electoral college, which goes to by state. If you look at pretty much now all the main pollsters, you look at tony for brico, you look at real clear politics are now showing that trump is winning the electrical lege.

Right now. He is up in almost every swing state, including, I think, mitigate, which is pretty surprising. Clearly, there's been a huge swing towards trump over the last week or two.

And look, this twenty five days to go, anything can happen on on. Overstate this. But yeah, the second example right here showing that trump s now only .

everyone ges is two ninety six to two forty two. What is fb ruc o .

he is saw republican pollster. But hey, I never .

heard well in another guy .

who I think is more neutral, mark helping, who is a pundit who has been very accurate, the election cycle. Remember his, who broke the scoop that biden would be replaced by herri. And he even said exactly when he would happen. And he predicted IT down to the day. He was exactly right about that.

And if you follow his account, he is now saying that both republican and democrat insiders that he talks to are both saying the same thing, which is their internals are now showing trump ahead in every swing state or almost every swing state. And a things simply breaking trumps way right now, again, there twenty five days is left. But if you're wondering why is hurts all of the sun doing interviews is because their internal started showing that he was in trouble, so they decided to get .

her out more is IT the other way is that that the her .

how certain .

interview or whatever are causing her to lose vote?

Yeah, exactly. I years ago is the doom loops. So what I said two months ago is that if Harris gets behind, she's going have to abandon on this sort of basement strategy of not doing interviews.

SHE have to start doing interviews. The problem is she's not good at interviews, and if he does more interviews, she's going to fall further behind the polls and IT could cause a doom loop. So that's where we appeared to be right now.

I said that on August thirty years, okay.

to matheus. I think that Donald trump is basically stuck to his strategy, which is he is a generational retail politician. I just heard parts of what he did with Andrew shoulder, another great, great, you know, podcast.

I think, David, right, that the editing and the massage of the koala here is talking points are galvanizing the people that have already decided and turning off the people that have already decided to offer truck. And she's losing the folks in the middle. And so this is what's causing her to have to be out there and and she's going to have to deliver very crisp message.

N A. And I think that right now it's been a little bit lacking, which is why you're seeing the polls, at least the electoral college, which is really what matters at this point, turn trump. So she's going to have a bit of an appeal fight between here and november.

The other thing else says that if you've seen what's happening in the a palace court, it's not clear whether the the trump case is gonna overturn before the election. But if that does, that could be very meaningful momentum for him. And then I think the third thing is that we should now buckling because if the last two elections are any guide, there are going to be a bunch of spanners in the works between now and november.

Would you say spanners? Spanner in the works? What is the what do you call a range in the system?

You mean like an october surprise? You mean like some crazy turn of events? OK facebook? Any thoughts here? Would you like to rush shock, test this and see what you want in the numbers? Or you have some objective thoughts here, would IT, which are for your .

take you know there's a polling data.

Oh yeah, we're at in the election. You pretty open ended here. You can look at them. You can make a note on overall what you see between the bedding markets and the polls and that disparity. You could just talk generally about where you think we are. You could talk about combo on how it's turn in doing a bunch of interviews with friendly.

where you out right now? I didn't see her interviews. Okay, I saw some excerpts on twitter.

Boy, yeah, me to fall on the point. Chmagh may chema said that he had to be crisp. If you look at any of these interviews at the opposition c cries.

She's ask software questions by by like Stephen call barring why you're running for president, how are you different than joe biden? Yeah and he doesn't have good answers. SHE starts free associating SHE gives.

He is very long with an answers. I don't go anywhere. SHE says.

You can think of a single way. She's different than job. And when pushed on, that is very strange.

He just did the most favorite chose. I wish you would do some chAllenging shows. I think she's got ta do joe rogan all in. And um what would be another good podcast for a duchemin if he really .

wanted to like to the adversary .

thing or something really? No, i'm just thinking like IT seems like sex.

If SHE comes in, has a, has a conversation, you'll be respectful.

Yeah, that's all idea that I didn't treat cuban respectfully is nonsense.

To watch the tape, I don't.

He thought that somebody somebody asserted that.

Now, I mean, the all, if you look back on every single presidential related when we did here, they were all respectful and they are conversations. I think the cuban dipped because of both of you into a bit more of a debate, and there .

was a lot more cross .

over .

than the other.

You look at all the other ones. I'm trying to think of a moment where IT, if you look at the other D B. Phillips, Chris cristine, the the VC boring, got to go lovey guys to this has been another amazing at what is all in podcast episode one ninety nine.

Make sure you go to all in the complex, meet up. Make sure if you're starting a company, go to file that university. If you're an engineer, what do you please go to and do one of the day, please David acts make sure you go to um .

per glue A I if you're an .

engineer and if you like potatoes, go to a hollow door and order your potato es country subdivision .

see everybody next .

time the all in.

Your winter.

We open sources to the fans and they .

ve just got crazy with.

Should all just get a room just one big, huge or because.

your.

time.