cover of episode E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more

E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more

2023/10/27
logo of podcast All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Chamath Palihapitiya
以深刻的投资见解和社会资本主义理念而闻名的风险投资家和企业家。
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David Friedberg
美国企业家、商人和天使投资者,创立并领导了The Climate Corporation和The Production Board。
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David Sacks
一位在房地产法和技术政策领域都有影响力的律师和学者。
Topics
Chamath Palihapitiya: 认为结束乌克兰战争至关重要,因为这场战争没有取得进展,并且存在升级为更大冲突的风险。他还讨论了如果以色列入侵加沙地带可能出现的几种情况,以及美国与伊朗关系的复杂历史。他认为《华尔街日报》等媒体存在煽动战争的倾向。他还表达了对核武器使用的担忧,认为由于常规武器短缺,这种可能性正在上升。他还谈到了美国经济的复杂状况,强劲的GDP增长与金融科技公司业绩下滑形成对比,这表明消费者需求可能正在减弱。他认为,直到Stripe上市,市场才可能真正重置。他还谈到了飓风Otis对墨西哥的破坏性影响以及由此带来的经济影响。最后,他还分享了他对中东地区之行的见解,以及他对该地区创业环境的看法。 David Sacks: 同样表达了对乌克兰战争和中东冲突升级的担忧,并认为结束乌克兰战争是避免更大冲突的关键。他认为《华尔街日报》正在煽动对伊朗的战争。他还讨论了如果以色列入侵加沙地带可能出现的几种情况,以及使用核武器的可能性。他还分析了美国经济的现状,认为强劲的GDP增长与金融科技公司业绩下滑形成对比,这表明消费者需求可能正在减弱。他还讨论了初创企业融资环境的恶化,以及初创企业失败数量的增加。他还谈到了Cruise自动驾驶汽车事故以及由此引发的监管问题。最后,他还讨论了新众议院议长Mike Johnson的当选以及特朗普的案件。 David Friedberg: 主要关注美国经济的现状,认为强劲的GDP增长与市场对经济衰退的担忧形成对比。他还讨论了初创企业融资环境的恶化,以及初创企业失败数量的增加。他认为,盈利能力是初创企业能否成功的关键。 Jason Calacanis: 主要关注飓风Otis对墨西哥的破坏性影响以及由此带来的经济影响,特别是对再保险市场的影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
El episodio comienza con una discusión sobre el riesgo de una Tercera Guerra Mundial y el papel de los medios de comunicación, específicamente del Wall Street Journal, en la escalada de las tensiones entre Estados Unidos e Irán. David Sacks argumenta que el periódico está avivando las llamas de la guerra al publicar historias que culpan a Irán de los ataques de Hamas, mientras que Chamath Palihapitiya proporciona un contexto histórico sobre la compleja relación entre Estados Unidos e Irán. La conversación luego cambia a la guerra en Ucrania, con Elon Musk argumentando que Estados Unidos debería centrarse en ponerle fin debido al riesgo de consecuencias no deseadas.
  • Existe un mayor riesgo de guerra global debido a las tensiones en Oriente Medio y la guerra en Ucrania.
  • El Wall Street Journal está avivando las llamas de la guerra con Irán.
  • La guerra en Ucrania ha fracasado y debe resolverse.
  • Varias publicaciones importantes han informado de forma inexacta sobre el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania.

Shownotes Transcript

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(1:16) WW3 risk, is WSJ trying to escalate US vs Iran?

(22:02) Nuclear risks

(33:28) Best case scenarios for de-escalation

(40:34) Murky macro picture: Main Street disconnects from Wall Street, startup shutdowns, challenged returns

(1:09:14) Cruise robotaxi accident update

(1:12:59) Hurricane Otis's rapid progression and the second-order effects on US coastal communities

(1:24:47) Jason reflects on his time in the Middle East

(1:31:09) New House Speaker and Trump case update

Follow the besties:

https://twitter.com/chamath)

https://linktr.ee/calacanis)

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks)

https://twitter.com/friedberg)

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod)

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast)

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl)

https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg)

Intro Video Credit:

https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect)

Referenced in the show:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/us-israel-gaza-ground-invasion.html)

https://unherd.com/2023/10/republican-hawks-now-want-a-war-with-iran/)

https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-oe-heilbrunn-iran-framework-republican-neocon-response-20150403-story.html)

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/09/no-evidence-yet-of-iran-link-to-hamas-attack-says-israeli-military)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/blinken-says-no-direct-evidence-iran-was-involved-hamas-attack-israel-rcna120110)

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained-in-iran-before-oct-7-attacks-e2a8dbb9)

https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-palestinians-usa-senator-idAFS8N3BG0A6)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-red-line-moment-with-iran-9e1bbf5a)

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25)

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-backed-militias-mount-new-wave-of-attacks-as-u-s-supports-israel-d51364d4)

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-counteroffensive-pierces-main-russian-defensive-line-in-southeast-9441e204)

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/index.html)

https://nypost.com/2023/10/15/biden-insists-us-can-tend-to-both-ukraine-and-israel-at-the-same-time)

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat)

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1717049864180379761)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/world/middleeast/erdogan-turkey-hamas-israel.html)

https://jordantimes.com/opinion/daoud-kuttab/king-abdullah-calls-peace-immediate-stoppage-war-gaza)

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/gdp3q23_adv.pdf)

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1716608344264470868)

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fddce62ff-33dd-4a38-a659-25e192825c29_1250x630.png)

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CART:NASDAQ)

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/KVYO:NYSE)

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bank-americas-unrealized-losses-securities-rose-1316-bln-2023-10-17)

https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/24/dmv-immediately-suspends-cruises-robotaxi-permit-in-california)

https://getcruise.com/news/blog/2023/a-detailed-review-of-the-recent-sf-hit-and-run-incident)

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2023/10/25/mike-johnson-is-a-social-conservatives-social-conservative-00123619)

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/25/democrats-opposition-mike-johnson-house-speaker-00123624)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9017431/Farting-sound-heard-twice-Rudy-Giulianis-voter-fraud-hearing-Michigan.html)

https://thosenerdygirls.org/can-farts-spread-covid)