cover of episode Can You Ever Actually De-Risk The Banking System?

Can You Ever Actually De-Risk The Banking System?

2024/11/11
logo of podcast Odd Lots

Odd Lots

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Jo
S
Steven Kelly
T
Tracy
考虑多样化投资以减少风险,特别是当持有大量单一股票时。
Topics
Jo: 本期节目讨论了自2008年金融危机以来,私人信贷和对冲基金等非银行金融机构的兴起,以及这些机构如何承担原本由银行承担的风险。讨论了风险转移的潜在问题,以及监管机构如何应对这些新的风险。 Tracy: 自2008年金融危机以来,银行业务不断向银行体系外转移,这在一定程度上是多弗兰克法案的目标。将风险较高的活动(如多策略对冲基金和向中型市场公司贷款)转移到银行体系之外,似乎是件好事,因为这些活动与存款机构没有直接关联。然而,这些非银行金融机构仍然可能依赖银行进行杠杆融资,因此风险可能最终会回到银行体系。 Steven Kelly: 2008年金融危机表明,看似转移出去的风险最终可能会回到银行体系。即使银行向承担信用风险的公司贷款,只要这些公司拥有资本并能够管理风险,银行仍然比以前更安全。私人信贷投资通常是投资者从其他投资(如垃圾债券)中转移资金,资金仍然在银行系统内流动。虽然资金流向不同类型的参与者,但存款无法离开银行系统。私人信贷基金的杠杆率越来越高,这与他们的宣传相符。私人信贷基金的杠杆率受到限制,因为股权是稀缺资源。金融体系的目标是用尽可能少的股权创造尽可能多的金融产品,股权是稀缺资源。从长远来看,金融业的发展趋势是向银行靠拢,私人信贷也开始变得更像银行。一些私人信贷基金开始采用允许投资者短期提取资金的结构,但这只是有限的流动性。为了增加流动性,私人信贷基金正在逐渐向银行模式靠拢。 “风险再配置”指的是金融危机期间由于市场风险感知和市场资本需求增加而导致的资产减值。银行系统中的风险再配置是由市场需求和监管需求共同驱动的。银行为了应对巴塞尔协议III、投资者对流动性的需求以及利率风险转化为信用风险,将资产从银行系统中转移出去。私人信贷公司在管理某些贷款方面可能比银行更有优势,这与银行关注客户服务而忽略风险管理有关。私人信贷公司在管理某些贷款方面比银行更有优势,因为它们能够与借款人进行更密切的合作。私人信贷的违约率低于竞争对手,但损失率更高。2008年金融危机之前,大型银行将自己的名字与影子银行联系起来,但实际上并没有为影子银行提供资金。2007年,当压力出现时,一些银行为了保护声誉,将影子银行的业务纳入自己的资产负债表。现在,银行可能会因为声誉原因而为与之合作的私人信贷公司提供担保。私人信贷作为一种产品,在银行存款和长期锁定资金之间存在。私人信贷的增长是由于其产品特性以及银行和对冲基金的需求。监管机构目前主要通过增加银行的合规成本,来间接影响私人信贷市场。各国监管机构都在关注银行对私人信贷基金和主要经纪商的敞口。监管机构正在采取措施来应对私人信贷市场的风险,方法包括加强监管和调整巴塞尔协议III。与美国相比,其他国家(如英国)在监管私人信贷市场方面做得更好。美国监管机构在监管私人信贷市场方面较为谨慎。与美国相比,其他国家(如欧洲)对私人信贷市场的监管更为严格。保险资金是私人信贷市场的重要资金来源,因为它具有粘性。未来,保险公司可能会成为私人信贷市场的重要参与者。虽然年金不是按需的,但它们仍然是储蓄工具,因此资金量有限。银行在提供贷款方面具有优势,因为它们能够迅速获得资金。私人信贷市场正在转向零售投资者,因为机构投资者已经达到其替代投资的分配上限。私人信贷市场正在发展其二级交易平台,这将模糊公共和私人信贷之间的界限。目前,监管机构和私人信贷公司对现状感到满意,但未来的发展方向存在风险。私人信贷市场面临的资金曲线限制,可能会导致其寻求更多高回报的投资机会。私人信贷公司可能会转向零售投资者以寻求更多资金,因为机构投资者已经达到其替代投资的分配上限。私人信贷市场尚未经历经济低迷,其在经济低迷中的表现尚不清楚。私人信贷市场在2022年帮助银行解决了积压贷款问题。私人信贷公司正在通过延期付款等方式来应对利率上升带来的风险。稳定币的技术很好,但产品可能不行,大型银行最终可能会胜出。稳定币最终可能会被存款取代。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The episode explores the migration of risks outside of regulated banks and whether these risks can truly be isolated. It discusses the role of private credit and multi-strategy hedge funds in this shift and the potential for these risks to find their way back into the banking system.
  • Private credit and hedge funds have taken over activities previously handled by banks.
  • The Volcker Rule banned proprietary trading in banks, leading to its migration to hedge funds.
  • The risk of these activities migrating back to banks through leverage is a significant concern.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

What do you see on the horizon? Uncertainty or opportunity? Whatever you see at pigeon, we can help you rise to the chAllenges of today when active investing and disciplines risk management unneeded most, drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long term returns. Our investments shape tomorrow, today. Pursue your tomorrow with P, G, M, A leading global asset manager.

As a parent, you want what's best for your teen. You want them to grow and thrive in this world, but you also want to make sure they are staying safe. That's why instagram is introducing teen accounts with automatic protections for who can contact teens and the content they can see. Instagram teen accounts built to a limits for teens and piece of mind for parents learn more at instagram. Dog comes large team accounts.

Lomborg, audio studios, podcasts, radio news.

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the odd lads podcast. I'm jo went though.

and i'm Tracy all away.

Trace, you know, we do all these episodes about private credit and obviously hedged phones, multistate atoi hedged phones and particular lately and of course, IT, all sort of seems to be part of a bigger story of a lot of things that used to happen inside banks, no longer .

happening inside banks, right? And this has been like a continual process ever since, like the two thousand eight financial crisis, even that we had like big periods of bank disintermediation, which we talked about recently on that episode with huvane inas.

totally. There is a lot going on. And not all of these trends date back to a financial crisis.

But you know, this was obviously kind of an express goal, I think, of the dog Frank regulations. And just from my seat sitting here, like, good, he is pretty good bunch. Risky, like multi strategy hedged funds, and such a seems kind of risky. You can lose lot of money. And theory lending to random middle market companies seems like you could lose lot of money to say, yeah seems really good that is not happy inside the banks and maybe that's good that is not connected directly to deposit taking institutions.

yeah. And I think given the increases we've seen in rates over the past couple of years, the fact that like nothing really broke or exploded in the private credit market seems like a good sign. But again, it's still relatively small and IT is growing very rapidly. So I think there are more questions to be asking about this particular space.

What you brought up something recently on an episode of synthetic risk transfers or bank sort of offloads some of their credit risk on to third party entities. And that's been really stuck in my head, which is, you know, okay, so these third party entities take the risk of the assets from the banks, but then that's an asset that can be levered up. And where do you get levered, presumably from a bank and so I have this .

like certain very circuit .

ah and I just have this an egging thing in my head somewhere like, okay, yeah, great. We ve IT off the banks. There is okay. We're not going to have another two thousand eight. But what if in the way what if in some way, IT still goes back to the bank, the risk still is there and IT just sort of takes the loop out.

then comes IT goes into prime brokers instead .

of the baLance IT. There's a good way to put IT. And so like i'm still like a like good things, pretty good.

But maybe maybe there is still some reasons to be concerned. Can you ever I guess maybe we could not tittle this episode. Like can you ever really do risk the banking system?

Oh, that's a good one.

Let's use that. okay. Well, I am really excited. We have the perfect guest on today show someone we've had on the podcast before and someone we've known and talk to for a long time. We are going to be speaking with Stephen Kelly, associate director of research at the yale program on financial stability. So Steven, thank you so much for coming back on all but .

great to be back. You know, sometimes you guys say literally the perfect guest. And so i'm over two on that. I ve only got a perfect guest.

but we have people who complain about when we forget to say the perfect, but you've kicked IT up to another level and are complaining about not saying literally the perfect guest.

This is a new era for what is the worst. I do not think the word perfect does not actually need any adjectives, right? Because either is perfect or it's not it's sort of like the word when people that calls something very unique.

It's like either it's unique. One of a kinder is not. So .

wouldn't I agree? I would.

That's Stephen Kelly, literally the perfect guest of made that traction. I just should I be I like I said, oh, everything seems fine, but are the reasons to think and we're going to get in to cic. So this is an incredibly big question, but just conception, ally, are the reasons to think about how these risks that migrate off of bank baLance sheet find a way to migrate bag onto them.

It's totally valid. I mean, this is part of the story of two thousand and eight writers. There was this whole shadow banking sector and IT looked like risk moved and really IT had every the banks brought everything back first, voluntarily and then involuntarily. So you're asking the exact write questions. The I M F is now asking these questions and citing out lots, I don't know.

You saw the same thing, report exactly issue, talked about this system, transform your intro and the idea of like, okay, but are the banks really funding IT? I would say, you know to the extent were running risk through another baLance ship, mean the banks really are more protected even if they are lending to a firm that's taking credit risk because they do have that firms capital and they have that firms, you know a lot and managing these risks. And so part of the issue with all the financial crisis stuff was a lot of IT was unfunded.

We can get in a synthetic Chris transfers and you had a great episode. They're different and they are funded. But broadly, joe, you're asking .

the right questions. okay. I have a very basic question. But what is actually happening in the financial system when someone puts money into private credit? So say, i'm an investor and i'm gonna. I don't know a million dollars in some private credit fund. What happens to that million dollars?

Well, first, Tracy, you're probably taking the million dollars from an allocation towards junk bonds, investment grade credit. So that step one time in the idea of like private credit is taking all these loans from banks or eating the banks launch. We can put a pin in that for now, we should come back to that.

So usually that's what's happening is this is an allocation away from others, other alternatives or other corporate credit. But the reality is this is deposited moving around the banking system. There's no like people talk about private credit, like it's deposits leaving in the banking system or no deposits are going to non banks, but there is no shadow bank without a bank.

Apollo has bank accounts. Wax on has bank accounts. When you transfer money into them, they put IT in their account and then it's land on to whom ever is is receiving the credit. And so you're change in the nature of the aggregate deposite franchise to the extent deposes are moving to a different kind of actor. But deposits can't leave the bank ist.

so they just take IT a little step further, just to be clear. Okay, I sell some junk bonds. I decided to allocate a million dollars to an Apollo private credit fund. They lend the money is a pollo, further leveraging that lending up to produce returns or how leveraged to these funds.

So what we're seeing is that they are increasingly so it's pretty sure so far and that was part of the pitch, right, is like Apollo came along in two and twenty two and private credit was booming and said, hey, why when you guys thought of this, we have like one times leverage, two times leverage, that's generally sort of the space OK it's in.

But as we've sort of seen the market mature in, the market grow, like there's a good reason to ever these things up. If you are doing effectively bank credit, which sometimes they are, there is a reason banks are ten times ever like that, that the way the funding of the system works when IT, that provides a whole host of other benefits to the stem. But there's also a cap on how much unlevel equity is out there.

If you think about what the financial system exists to do, it's to create as many financial goods for us. What we need deposit its uh you know other kinds of savings on as little equity as possible. Equity is the scarce resource and it's the input to the financial systems manufacturing process.

And so you cannot recreate ten x twelve x fifteen ex leverage from the banking system on one two x leverage in private credit. And and that's the limit you know to your fear jail. That's the limit of how big this thing can grow IT.

And we're still seen that a little bit is the bigger private craft grows related to the economy. There are sort of nearing the king on the funding curve as far as like what amount of funding is willing to be locked up as long term assets like the fundamental idea that like on demand part deposits can become locked up. Five year equity and a private credit fund is not real.

Haven't we seen some private credit funds start to look at structures where investors can take their money out as well, like instead of having the five year lockup periods, people can go in and out as they need?

definitely. And in the long ark of financial history, bends towards banks. And we sort of seen private credit start to look more like banks.

That one of the ways as these sort of interval funds or eia Green funds are called. And basically, these are just different types of structures that allow some amount of liquidity in the short term. And this is very, very marginal steps.

It's it's limited, you know it's gated after certain percentage is limited by quarter is a certain time interval in which you can get IT. It's not the positive yet, but that's one of the ways which funds have started to bend towards a banking mt. In addition to leverage.

By the way, just speaking of the history of finance, is that entities try to make illiquid things a little bit more bank leg. There was a really interesting paper that came out recently from tim barker and Christies about the ten central bailout in there.

There is some talk about the history of cds specifically, and how there, at one point there is this really hard lock upon them, but then entity, he is found ways to sort of you could liquidity and sell you're right to the C. D. So they always find a way to create liquidity out of illiquidity.

Yeah, you can charge anything. Cash flows to para me to parents, you can get anything out of that.

Speaking of trenching, I wanted to ask one more basic question, which is this term retuning of risk in the financial system has come up but a number of time. So huge an steena used that in a recent episode. I'm pretty sure you've used IT as well in your riding.

Exactly what risk is being retrenched here? Like give us an idea of what types of things end up in private credit? I imagine a lot of IT is sort of medal market stuff, stuff that to your point earlier would have been in the junk bond market or the leverage loan market and is now going elsewhere.

Yeah, that's exactly right. And so I mean, I got this term from the G. F. C, the global financial crisis literature, I believe IT originate with gary gordon Andrew metric. And they used that to describe increasing haircuts in two thousand eight.

So the idea that you you have a triple asset, you were haircut in in at one percent. But now the market resell that collateral is worse. You are more worried about your counterparty.

And so you're going to hear cut thirty percent, you have sort of a retraced what you've decided this triple ay. And a lot of that was driven by market perception of risk as well as increased market demands from market capital. What we're seen in the banking system is a little bit of market demands and a little bit of regulating demand.

So obviously, bozzle three is looming next to the maturity wall, and it's sort of sane banks may have to have more capital. The other thing is investors depositors are looking for a little more liquidity in banks than they were three, twenty, twenty three. And Frankly, interest rate risk at a certain point becomes credit risk. And so when rates go to five percent, banks aren't really like trying to be in the business of managing all the credit risk at five percent that they were avoiding a zero percent. And so getting out of that left tail and sort of retching by selling things out of the banking system is sort of the so all those three things that wants and IT makes sense for banks to lean and on prime broke and and lending to senior layers of these funds.

right? This reminds me of something else I wanted to ask, which is I hear a lot about comparative advantages when IT comes to private credit for the banks in the sense that private credit might be Better at managing certain loans to your point about higher interest rates.

Is that true? And like what is that comparative advantage actually look like? Does IT just mean the analysts that private credit firms are like pouring over the paperwork more than a bank can?

I think that's right. And I know I know joe has ruled the failure of the high touch banks in twenty twenty three. You know that banks that care about their customers are the ones that failed.

But what that misses is that community banks didn't fail and those do the same thing and those don't have the attention of the market. And that sort of kind of part of the pitch of private credit as well as, like you know, we're Operating under less transparency. Again, we're seeing give on that as they sort of bent towards banks.

But in theory, this is just a product and they do have some ability is a smaller group, sometimes a small as one, to work with the lenders. We've seen lower default rates out of private credit verses their competitors in library Jones, but higher loss is given to fault. So you can multiply those two things together and come up with some wester loss. And in that case, you know that makes sense to be allocated to private credit.

Direct lending has been one of the most dynamic areas of the private alternative space these last few years, having grown massively as a source of capital for both corporate borrows but also a financial sponsors that have kept going from strength to strength. And i've needed that private capital to Foster the growth that they .

have been experiencing for leading alternative investing insights. Listen to speaking of alternatives from P, G, M.

with mx business pattern, you get one point five tags, membership rewards points on selected business purchases. So expanding your infant tory scores more points for your business. That's the powerful backing of the american express. Turns and points can apply, earn more at american express.

You know to realize a little earlier in the conversation is that I actually don't know the difference in what the shadow banks, the quote, shadow banks were doing prior to two thousand and eight and how the relationship with real banks was different than the current relationship. I mean, it's interesting because I remember you know one of the things that was going on, I think summer two thousand and seven or summer two thousand and eight, who was like a couple bear sterns hedge funds, like just hedge funds that seem like a really big deal, like seem to be system ally important. I think city hit something maybe to what was the nature of those quotes banks and how they actually connected to the regulator banks.

So the short version is that the nature of those is big banks with strong baLance sheet like bear sterns and city put their name all over the shadow banks, but didn't actually have they weren't funding them themselves. They weren't actually on the baLance sheet of the banks.

So when pressure came in two thousand and seven, and nobody knew this was gonna like a repeater, the great depression city took all that stuff back on its baLance SHE for to protect reputation. Bear took one of those hetch phones on back onto its baLance sheet. These banks did not have to take on this risk.

They're going okay. We're going to stand behind our name. We're going to stand behind our clients who thought they were buying a bear sterns or city group product. And maybe that's a risk today.

I don't know. You know, I was just going because you see these headlines, gp mortal n is gonna IT to private credit and so forth. And so I get the idea that this is going to be going to be a separate funding vehicle, be like off baLanced kind of sound somewhere yeah.

I think that's totally a risk. Is there a world where city group posted bail out its Apollo partnership because they put city group name of IT? Maybe maybe I got J.

P. Morgan mention, just reminded me of something. But a few years ago, well, actually more than a few years ago, maybe unlike twenty fourteen or something like that, I remember J P.

Morgan basically complaining that the prime broker business was a lot harder nowadays like the margins were slime and stuff like that. I think that's what they said. And yeah, fast forward to twenty, twenty four. And IT seems like prime broker is a monem ker for the big banks, at least what happened there.

So private might just be the growth of private credit in IT has found a niche. I would think about IT like a product. You know, like I said, it's got this middle market like you eluted to.

It's sort of got a different model and there's no region that shouldn't exist along the spectrum of bank deposes to thirty year locked up funding to fund very treasure expedition like IT exists in that spectrum, which is kind of an academic answer, but it's true. I mean, mark Brown, CEO AI recently had a comedy. He said you we'll get competed with like crazy.

And then what's the difference between public, private? And I think that's right. IT rose as a product in the years, I mean doubled LED between twenty, twenty and twenty twenty three. We can talk about why, but now they have bank needs. Like I said, there's no shadow bank without a bank and they have banking needs and hetch funds to so might .

take away so far from this conversation is that some of the questions were asked is not that there's like some big looming risk out there or like, oh, this is a disaster waiting to happen. But mostly these are all like reasonable questions to be asking about where at some point risks could emerge or at least were regulators maybe want to to thank or try to get ahead of things.

What tools or specific lines of inquiry have we seen from regulators or things regulators could do if they like? We want to monitor this. And I know that started, you ve written about this, but what are the specific mechanisms and questions and things they could do?

I mean, basically, so far, what we've seen if is they've just been really annoyed to banks. That's a cost, right? If you talk about why the economics of private credit makes sense, some of IT, is that okay? The market demands a lot less capital for certain risks than banking regulators.

And there are some supervision attached to those capital regulations too. And so to the extent are making supervision, you know just more costly. It's annoying. And bank say whatever you know like J P M, yeah they are doing ten billion of private credit on baLanced. That's like they just found that in the couch cushions and they're doing they put out a press release so they can serve their clients.

And back to kind of what we're talking earlier about what the differences between banks and private credit banks being more about managing deposit franchise, private credit being more the land inside. But really, we've seen from the bank of england, from the E C B, from the fsa in japan, from the fed, they're all starting to just pro banks about their exposure. They are lending to private credit phones and prime broker, Frankly.

But that step one, I mean, you hear regulars talk either one, we need more authority to regulate the non banking sector like banks or two, you know, the conservative is, let's be nicer with bozzle. Three, so you don't push all the stuff into private credit. The truth is, is always somewhere in the middle right now. Supervisors have just become more annoying.

That's a good way you're putting IT. Wait, I have bunch a questions. okay.

One, have you noticed any like substantial differences in supervisory approaches? Like is the B, O, E doing something different to the fed versus the B O J? I know you said they're all in info collection mode at the moment. Like there must be some differences.

So generally the stuff goes Better in foreign countries than IT does in the U. S, particularly the bank of england, they have like a system wide stress test now where they simulate checks in theory through like the whole financial system.

They're big on macro potential stuff over there in the us like the fact that the f sock, the financial ly overside council hasn't designated black rock or its its in is systemically important under a by administration. It'll never happened. I am not saying they should have.

I mean, the idea is like they're not doing banking, they have no shorter liabilities. Bb, but IT just doesn't get that same reception abroad. So there's more you know, I think it'll lean harder in europe and elsewhere.

But for right now, the U. S. Is just kind of like poking added in the stress test and in data collection.

By the way, you mentioned that like one of the binding constraints in the financial system is how much money is just willing to be locked away on a permanent basis. This is really though where the role of insures comes in because this is money that people put into a pod of the theoretically expect to get all of the back maybe at some point of the course of a lifetime is set, but that really is a great source of cash for long term money. Can you talk a little bit more about like how big that is?

Yeah, it's huge and growing. I think you're exactly right. That is sort of a sticky source of funds. And if you hear a pollo talk about their thin insurance here, IT sounds like this basically unlimited.

I mean, they'll say like our limit of new private credit is finding good things to invest in, not the source of funds. And so we may see a bite vacation across the system of, do you have and ensure attached to yourself? I mean, this again goes back to sticky, funny, can you get bank leverage? Do you haven't ensure attach to yourself?

I mean, the other thing about insurance is that is still is a savings vehicle. And so there still is a limit. Annuities aren't on demand.

but they and they tried like layer and stuff so that IT looks more and more like an investment right time and looks more more like a mutual fund. They're something like that example. So even though the other question, so what about the distribution of risk across various entities? What about an I kind of think this might be a core question from an investor perspective, I guess, the distribution of profitability.

And when you look at the profits that come out, uh, print Rogers units at banks, how do those stack up compared to the profits of traditional banking? And is the that making risky loans sitting inside the risk part is a profitable business? And does that ultimately impair over time how much money what we call .

banks can make? And I think and IT goes back to the limit of funding in private credit OK. Like take cover, for example, in the two weeks after the pandemic really hit in march 2, banks increased their business loans by twenty five percent, half a trillion dollars.

Two weeks, they can go to market and issue equity that can go find investors. They are able to create a positive that a key stroke, and that's always gonna the advantage banks. And so like I said, private credit, we're seeing them sort of get closer, closer to this kink on their funding curve or all a sudden, the long term wealth lockup sources are scare and Frankly, were seen as a little bit fun.

Raising is falling in private credit and we're seen more institutional investors say like we're at our alternative allocation. Now it's all the big push suit is retail. And again, talk about looking more like a bank like that was one of private credits, original promises to as well.

Like this is different. This is just safe flight. Institutional investors. Now everyone's after the retail money. How can we make .

a retail vehicle? How can we tap and ample a liquid rapper quite assets.

right? That was good thing is, oh, private credit doesn't mark to market once you have an etf. And we're seen a bunch of banks and non banks start to build out their secondary trading desks for private credit. I mean, IT goes back to what micron said eventually. What's the in public in private?

Just to go back to something you touched on earlier, do you get the sense that regulatory attitudes towards private credit. And banks and the relationship there are starting to change in the sense that, john, I have talked a lot about how in the aftermath of the two thousand eight financial crisis, there were deliberate efforts to shift risk into the shadow banking system. Doesn't feel like maybe there some like change in the vibes, the regulatory vibes .

now not yet. I think regulators are looking for sure. It's a matter of do they find something? I mean, you talked about this another episode with huge Tracy.

How when you ask a private credit investor, you say, like, oh, you know, or you guys eat the banks launch now and they sort of wax and wine and they say, well, it's ecosystem and wear partners and you know and then they go in the bathroom, scream in the mirror, how embarrassing that is like IT goes back to them, new in the banks for one and two. I think everyone sort of happy with the status quo. The question is the direction of travel, and that's where the risks are.

I just really fascine by this idea of like the king in the funding curve for private credit because i'm trying to recognize that with this idea that at least from Apollo, via all the money that they have for the a thin insurance vehicle, IT sounds like there are still plenty of money and they don't need to go out to retail that they don't need to make etf, that they just have to find more good deals to employ all of the premiums they are collecting from insurance.

Yeah, I think like I said, we may see some kind of by vacation. And I mean, there's a question about how popular annuity remain in if rates go low and all that stuff. And I don't have a view on that.

What we see from other private credit lenders is they are chased and retail money now because institutional investors are full on private equity, which hasn't give them their money back. Now they have tech one locations, they have venture capital oceans, and they say, hey, we're full and alternatives. Now insurance is definitely a space where more money can come and more diversification because IT is so sticky in long term. But there's a limit to that and IT may be that to the partners go to spoil for angers.

Tra, I don't understand why isn't every investing firm haven't ensure? I mean, this is like looks sure healthy, right? They just collect all these premiums and they all this money that they can invest. IT seems like such a big advantage to have an insure. And I know various hedge fund of the reinsurance thing is kind similar.

seems like such a huge advantage. Suggest IT a sales pitch. A ck.

like why would you be an investor without insurance?

I don't really get that. The one thing I was thinking about though is just going back to this lack of deals point IT kind of feels like if you can put your money in good deals, like if you can't get a big enough volume of those deals, then the temptation is presumably to try to eat out more returns from the ones you do that and apply leverage and that again, like where some of the risk could come from. That's not a question. That's just a point I will .

continue on is one thing .

I wanted to ask is you're obviously focused on the financial stability aspect of all of this, but I feel there's been some macro impact from private credit as well. And if you think about you know, financial stability is tied very much to fundamental economics. And if the economy is good, then probably you're not going to see a bunch banks blowing up in that sort of thing. But what are you watching in terms of like the real world impact of private credit?

So there's absolutely a risk. It's almost a troke now to say like this stuff has not seen a downturn. Private credit has not seen a downturn. And I don't know what onna have to in the downturn either. So sorry, that's a terrible answer.

But there obviously is like a credit crisis type risk to this in the same weather is for the which can also hold up well in the past. That's maybe you know, good analogy. I think part of this you talk about stability, private credit was really there to offset the bank's hung loans problem in twenty twenty two.

So rates go from zero to five. Banks are sitting on a billion dollars of hung loans, most famously twitter and there in the news again, talk about the benefits of being private. Like everybody knew Morgan stanly had that twitter a lot like, so private credit was really there to take a lot of deals, and they did a lot refinances in twenty and twenty three.

That problem is sort of work through on the bank side. And I we're in the banks come back and we're seeing private credit do payment in kind modifications to extend pretend type things. So the sort of longer part of higher for longer, you know, it's like IT goes back to what I said about interest ate risk becoming credit risk.

We're sort of seeing that and private credit. So in that sense, like it's nice that we have these two side by side systems that can sort of cause each other. But as we have been, they're increasingly becoming .

one I have won less question has nothing to do actually with private credit. But I figure you here, and I think you might have some thoughts on this topic. We did an episode truly about two months or so ago about stable coins. And we saw recently strike made at one point one billion dollar acquisition of the stable coin companies.

There are some, I think, issues related to financial stability related to stable coins because any time you have asset or a product that pegged one to one against the dollar, we all you know, we can talk about money markets all the time. But actually like a separate question than financial stability, relia stable point. Do you, as a researcher in how the financial system works, take them seriously as something that will be important for payments in the financial system going forward?

I'm going to hit you with another trobe, which is that I think the tech is good, the product is not. I think this is another area where the big banks will win. I think I will be a stable coin technology.

But like now we don't actually experience A C H verses. But clicking fed wire is whatever else it'll be that it's the right technology. But the ultimate question is payment in what? And you don't want to answer that question to be U S, D, C, like you wanted to be deposit.

I mean, I guess my thing is like, you know, I actually buy kind of the argument from the stable coin advocates that like that solves a lot of problems with tech international ability that IT could never you will never get a sort of block chain type solution from all the big banks working together because of lack of trust or whatever IT else. Like I buy that.

But I guess like I guess to your point specifically, I don't know how big ultimately that demand will be, especially if you put them away from most payments in most of the world. These things are pretty abstract away. I would I don't know. I don't want to like jump to inclusions because I know they are under developed banking systems. But for much of the world, for much of the wealthy world, a lot of these problems are completely expected away.

The other chAllenges to go find a bunch of safe assets to, even if you are replacing trillion of dollars of payments, you have to go find a much safe asset. And that's why we run this through banks because they don't have to find safe asset. They come back to possible Steven Kelly.

thank you so much for coming on all lots. That was great. You answered a bunch of questions as I think that, listen, my head had been lingering for a long time.

Thanks, guys.

Steven is so good. He's so clear.

Yes, he is is always good to catch up with him. I mean, I do think like the circular nature, yes, of the leverage is obviously a concern again, like we're talking about relatively small volumes right now. But he feels like I could become problematic at some point.

It's interesting. I kind of forget when I think about two thousand eight and two thousand and nine, how much of those first like tremors, I guess, of the crisis or literally, you know, non banks and I think you know, people never talk about those bear sterns hedge funds that blew up. Yeah, that was the start.

But there was a really kind of, I mean, was the quanta ake or was that late two thousand and six and that was sort of freak the market out a little bit. But then he was really like those bear stern hedge funds. And then um you know you mentioned the city one and just this idea that they had these they head these off baLanced vehicles, probably for many other reasons that you know the same reasons that shadow banks are private credit or mod strategy. Hedge funds exist today, less capital intensive vehicles and then they felt that needs to bring them on maybe for reputational reasons. I think that's like .

a really interest. You're absolutely, but you when they broke the you know the other thing I was thinking about was just this idea of, again, liquid rappers on a liquid assets. And I kind of think like the ultimate expression of shadow banking has to be someone putting an etf wrapper. And like private .

credit is so perfect, they always find a way to do they always a way we're going to get the liquid premium and we're to still give you the liquidity. I think one of the most important points that Stephen makes, and i've heard him make IT before, is just this idea. The key scarcity in the financial system is cash that's willing to be locked up, right? Cash that willing to not be sold instead earn a demand deposit.

And so there is therefore then this natural constraint on how much, say, a private credit firm could take away from the banking system. Because in the end, banks, as we know, as you mentioned, are very levered. How do you recreate that leverage? How do you satisfy the financing demands of the real economy? Given this constraint and locked up capital, I think it's a really important concept to keep in mind.

You are IT well, shall we leave thee? This has been another episode of the all lots podcast. I'm Tracy all away. You can follow me at Tracy other .

way and i'm gel wasn't though you can follow me at the start. Fellow Stephen Kelly at Stephen Kelly, forty nine, follow our producers common rud rigas at common arman dashall bennet at dashboard and q Brooks at q Brooks. Thank you to our produce our most this on them more odd ts content that a blumer gog comes slash out lots.

We have transcripts, a blog and a new daily news letter. And you could check about all these topics, twenty four, seven in our discord. Discord dug, G, G.

slash lots. And if you enjoy all bots, if you like, IT, when we ask questions about private credit, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite cast platform. And remember, if you are a bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes, absolutely add free.

You will also get access to our new daily newsletter. All you need to do is go to apple podcast and find the bloomberg channel there and follow the instructions. thanks. We're listening.

This podcast is supported by Better help offering license therapies you can connect with via video, phone or chat. Here's Better help. Head of clinical Operations has huge o discussing who can benefit from therapy.

I think a lot of people think that you're supposed to be going to therapy once you're like having panic attacks every day. But before you get to that point, I think once you start even noticing that you feel a little bit of and you can't maintain this harmony that you once had in relationships, that could be a sign that maybe you want to go talk to somebody, there's always a benefit and talking to someone because we can all benefit from improved insight about ourselves and who we are and how we behave with other people. So if you're human, that's like a good indicated that you could benefit from talking to somebody.

Find out if therapy is right for you, visit Better help dot com today. That's Better. H L, P.

Your business doesn't just need insights to work IT needs real time, actionable insights to work smarter and faster. Get business exactly that way with a PS, the tool that empowers digital marketing teams spot search trends, forecast demand and analyze competitive strategies. Let h fs do that, so can concentrate on find why top marketers turn to h raps at h raps dot com. That's A H R E F S. Dot com.