What’s next after US strikes on Yemen?
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This week on True Crime Reports. It's July 2020. We're in the port town of Salerno in Italy.

Police have just raided a cargo ship transporting machinery and paper cylinders. But when police crack them open, inside they find bags and bags stuffed with tiny white pills. The pills are a very dangerous, highly addictive drug called Captagon. It's a drug you may not have heard of, but it's been wreaking havoc across the Middle East.

He wrote that time was up for what he called Houthi terrorists, whose attacks must stop. He said if they didn't, hell would rain down upon them like nothing they'd seen before.

After promising peace, why is Trump now threatening war? And how will the Houthis respond? I'm Natasha Del Toro, and this is The Take. My name is Alex Katopoulos. I'm defense editor for Al Jazeera, and I live and work in Qatar, in Doha. Thank you so much for coming on today to talk to us about these latest strikes.

On Saturday and Sunday, the U.S. launched airstrikes on multiple targets in Yemen. Trump announced the strikes promising, quote, overwhelming lethal force. And reports have emerged that at least 53 people have been killed, including civilians. In Yemen, an up-close look at the destruction they caused, the people and children they killed and wounded, the utter destruction left behind. Now the group's leaders are vowing to respond.

So why don't we just start with the basics? What do we know about the attacks? So we're talking about attacks from dozens of sorties flown by F-18 jets from the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

Also, you had cruise missile attacks from the USS Georgia, which is a cruise missile submarine that was in the area designed for land attack. And also the assets protecting the aircraft carrier, which is effectively a small fleet of air defense destroyers and also anti-submarine warfare destroyers as well. So they all lent a hand. Dozens of targets hit. We're talking...

radar sites, missile silos, we're talking ammunition dumps, fuel dumps, command and control centers. I mean, they're being very, very methodical in working through the targeting list as well. And of course, some of this was in the capital Sana'a. So you had civilian deaths as well as Houthi operatives as well. So very comprehensive, very, very focused on degrading

the Houthi capability to be able to launch attacks or indeed function as a military establishment. And this is the largest military attack in the second Trump administration. You know, what were the reasons for the attack? Well, the U.S. said they will no longer tolerate any disruption to maritime trade in the area. Now, that's quite something because the Houthi attacks, although they'd stopped,

There'd been a pause, quite a lengthy pause in attacks. But the incoming Trump administration had declared the Houthi group a foreign terrorist organization. And then the leader of the Houthis announced that they would start up attacks shortly on shipping as well, which the amount of shipping that had gone through the Bab al-Mandab Strait is

has been dropped by about 60%. So that gives you an idea just kind of how much of an impact they've had on international trade and shipping. And I want to get to the fact that the Houthis hadn't launched an attack since the Trump inauguration a little bit later. But maybe for now, Alex, you can just remind us who the Houthis are and what their strategy has been in the Red Sea.

They were a group that came to prominence, Ansar Allah, the followers of God, came to prominence during the Yemeni civil war when they split from the government.

Yemen was thrown into a decades-long civil war and the Houthi group was attacked by a very strong coalition of Saudi Saudi led conducting massive airstrikes like we're talking in the the region of about 50,000 sorties that's a very intense air campaign the civil war is roughly about a decade so roughly from about 2014 onwards

The fighting's calmed down over the last 18 months when everyone reached a peace agreement. But that really was because the Houthis had fought them to an impasse. The Saudi coalition was, A, starting to fall apart, really couldn't do any more. And everybody realized, the Houthis as well, that they had to form some sort of consensus. But since October the 7th,

When you had the Israeli campaign against Gaza, triggered by the Hamas incursion into southern Israel, you had a campaign run by the Houthis that focused on damaging maritime trade, to say this bombing is excessive, it has to stop, we will not tolerate it. We will start up this campaign of...

Using missiles, I mean, they refer to them as drones, but really they're cheap cruise missiles and strike maritime trade, hit shipping that's passing through the strait as well, and to try and force pressure on Israel to actually allow food in. Which, by the way, can be done pretty much with a single phone call from President Trump.

Instead, the Trump administration has decided on this tactic that we will not pressure the Israelis. We will pressure the Houthi group to be able to stop any kind of maritime attacks. Right. And so the Houthis had, they're basically launching these attacks to help resume the aid that's going to Gaza. They warned last week that they were going to resume attacks on Israeli ships there.

Now, President Trump, I think it's important to mention that he campaigned on not starting wars. And now he's here launching these attacks.

In fact, he posted on his Truth Social platform, and I quote, this was in all caps, he says, your time is up and your attacks must stop, starting today. And if they don't, hell will rain down upon you like nothing you've ever seen before. So very, very Trumpian in his message. But as you mentioned,

The Houthis hadn't attacked since Trump's inauguration or since the Gaza ceasefire until they claimed two retaliatory attacks against U.S. ships on Monday. So what do you see as Trump's real goal here?

Well, President Trump might be against wars, but he's not against using military force, violence, in order to be able to coerce a group, a smaller group. This is not really a declaration of war. It's using violence as a diplomatic tool. He is determined to try and force violence

Basically, the capitulation of the Houthis, not even they surrender as a fighting force, that they just come out with a public statement saying they will not attack maritime shipping. They will not disrupt it. And of course, the Houthis are focusing very much on Israeli owned ships.

Ships, so they're focusing on that or indeed any other ships that will dock an unload or unload in Israeli ports So that's something that's actually affecting Israel's economy Greatly because all those ships don't have to just sail around the you know the whole of Africa They have to sail around the whole of the Mediterranean whereas before they just sailed up the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and there they were

So it's a huge logistical and economic challenge for Israel, which is, of course, why the Houthis are doing it. So in a way, Trump is...

He's protecting Israel, of course. I mean, that's a given. But he's also trying to keep Israel on track for the ceasefire as well, in part. That's my view. So Israel doesn't break the ceasefire and say, well, this is what we're going to do. And eventually they will start to allow aid in. But of course, the Houthis have turned around and said, later is not soon enough. I'm sorry, it needs to start right now.

But this is not the end of these strikes, is what you're saying. I mean, this is the thing. They've announced that it's not just going to be a one-off. I mean, they want a result. President Trump wants a result, and they will continue until the Houthis give them that result. But the Houthis are used to extreme violence against them. The Houthis are used to

tens of thousands of airstrikes, the bombing of the capital, airstrikes by the US, airstrikes by the UK, and airstrikes by Israeli fighters as well. Don't forget the recent airstrikes by Israel. So it's not something that this is new to them. And they would have dispersed their forces, they would have dispersed and hidden them

The Houthis are dealing with a superpower that has unparalleled intelligence collection capabilities. And they can spot underground bunkers where other countries couldn't. They can spot movement and pick up and absorb all the kind of electronic spectrum, as it were, in terms for intelligence gathering. So they're up against someone that has incredible collection powers for intelligence. ♪

The Houthis are clearly very well informed. They know which ships are Israeli owned and they know where some of the ships are going to dock. And by the way, also, it doesn't even matter that sometimes they've struck ships that have nothing to do with Israel and still sunk them just to kind of send the message that we will disrupt things and it won't just affect Israel, it'll affect the international community. Because sooner or later, prices start to go up and up and up and up. And then that's when everybody pays attention.

So they do have an asymmetric means of forcing everyone's hand that perhaps other groups didn't have as much of. More with Alex after the break. This week on True Crime Reports. It's July 2020. We're in the port town of Salerno in Italy. Police have just raided a cargo ship transporting machinery and paper cylinders.

But when police crack them open, inside they find bags and bags stuffed with tiny white pills. The pills are a very dangerous, highly addictive drug called Captagon. It's a drug you may not have heard of, but it's been wreaking havoc across the Middle East.

True Crime Reports, a new global crime show from Al Jazeera. Subscribe and listen wherever you get your podcasts. So, Alex, I should mention the deputy head of the New Houthi media office said that the airstrikes won't deter them and that they would retaliate against the U.S. Quote, Sanaa will remain Gaza's shield and support and will not abandon it no matter the challenges. He added on social media,

We've also heard from the Houthis in the wake of these attacks

Now, we will meet escalation with escalation. We will respond to the American enemy in its raids, in its attacks with missile strikes, by targeting its aircraft carriers, its warships, its ships. It will be included in the ban. And yet, we still have escalatory options. If it continues its aggression, we will move to additional escalatory options, God willing.

So while they are being attacked by this superpower, it doesn't seem like they have any intention of backing down. No, on the contrary. I think they're going to escalate. And they've said they will. They've said they're going to escalate and increase the level of attacks. Now, that's easier said than done. They might have that desire. But you're talking about persistence of eyes on. Not only does the United States have tremendous assets in the region,

You've got drones that are going to be watching for missile launchers. You're going to have jets flying, combat air patrols. You're going to have massive, massive land attack options from these things. So there's nowhere really for the Houthis to go. If they try something, they might be able to get away with it once or twice. Even if, and it's a real even, even if the Houthis were able to figure out how to swamp

say, the defenses of a warship or of a fleet, it would probably be the death sentence for them because I think they would just, you know, if America has no shortage of carrier groups, no shortage of military assets that it would bring to bear, and it would, they're not going to lose this one at all. And it's just a matter of time.

Now, you know, the Houthis are not going to back down. They've been threatened before. They're used to it and they certainly will stand up to everyone. But my feeling is that I can't see how they can win this.

For the time being, even with the pause, shipping and shippers and shipping companies didn't take the risk of going through the Red Sea anyway. They just said, you know what, we're just going to suck up the cost and go around the Cape of Good Hope. And once you do that, it means that the Houthis don't have any leverage. If the sea lanes aren't being used near them, then there's nothing they can do.

Now, I just don't think if America keeps a heavy presence, a heavy military presence in the region, which is no reason why they can't. And if they can't cope with it, they'll just bring in another battle group. And, you know, between two aircraft carrier groups, they'll cope with it just fine. And I really don't think, you know, that the Houthis could maybe inflict some minor damage on a ship here and there. But that would be about it.

So if I'm hearing you correctly, it's not looking good for the Houthis, but they're going to keep fighting for now. You know, and of course, the U.S. has been down this road before. President Biden conducted several airstrikes against the Houthis when he was in office. And I guess I'd like to know, are these different at all under Trump?

I think he's, yes, the strikes before Biden were sort of punishment strikes. You hit the ship, then we strike you. You did this bad thing, now we punish you. Whereas under President Trump, the Navy's been sent with a task in mind to turn around and say, we are going to degrade you militarily until there's either nothing left of you or you come to an agreement not to attack shipping.

And we've got all the time in the world and all the resources in the world.

And there will come a point where the Houthis won't want to be, there'll come a point to how much the degradation of the military force they will tolerate, because they might turn around and say, we might not even survive as a military force for internal reasons if this keeps carrying on. So maybe we should just think of our own self-preservation and put a stop to it for a while. And then, of course, there's the implied inferred pressure towards Iran as well.

And as you mentioned, you know, Iran backs the Houthis. There's a relationship there. And Trump has warned Iran to stop backing the Houthis and said that he will hold Iran, quote, fully accountable for the actions of what he calls his proxy.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Arachi, said in a post on Ex Early Sunday, he responded that the U.S. government had, quote, no authority or business dictating Iranian foreign policy.

He continued to say, quote, end support for Israeli genocide and terrorism, stop killing of Yemeni people. You know, it's something to consider that this is all happening as the Trump administration has upped sanctions on Iran and is trying to get Iran to come to the negotiating table to have nuclear talks. So, Alex, what impact do you think these latest strikes are going to have on these negotiations?

That's kind of the $64 million question, isn't it? I'm not sure is the answer. You have several options.

the Houthis are aligned with Iran in part because of religion, because of culture, in part because of military necessity, but they're not a proxy force. They have their own way of thinking, their own way of doing things. They are supplied heavily by Iran in terms of military capabilities, but they also have their own ability to be able to make drones, to make these kind of cheap missiles and everything, and also to augment

Ballistic missiles as well. It's not just a bunch of guys riding around in pickup trucks is there's more It was quite sophisticated as an organization and I think sometimes in the Western press no one gives them that credit that this is a fairly sophisticated force that knows what it's doing in terms of What how it's going to influence Iran Iran my view is that I think Iran will continue to

to supply the Houthis, because there's any real way it can get back at the West now. But there will come a point where the Houthis will refuse to use those arms, and that's really what it's about. It's not about who's supplying them, it's about what the Houthis will do, what decisions they will make in terms of whether they carry on the campaign against maritime shipping. Now, how influential will that be on the nuclear talks? Again,

Who's to say? I don't know. You're trying to peer into the minds of... The Iranians are past masters at negotiation, delay. They have cut deals before. For the most part, they've stuck with them. It's normally the West that pulls away from these deals because incomes are an administration that doesn't like the deals that were made, like the deal that was made under Obama. And then you had the Trump administration come in that first time and pulled away from it.

What can Iran do? At the end of the day, it's now surrounded by enemies that, as any of the forces that were aligned with it, have been damaged or massively degraded in terms of their abilities.

So it's feeling increasingly isolated, and this would be one more diplomatic move to be able to isolate Iran. But Iran's a power in its own right. I don't think that this will affect the nuclear talks themselves. I think anything that they were going to do with the nuclear talks, they will agree to anyway or disagree to, regardless of what happens to the Houthis. You know, we've talked about the sort of geopolitical and military implications here, but we haven't really talked about the reality in Yemen.

You know, it's one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, and there are civilians there who've already endured so many years of war and humanitarian crisis. What impact could further escalation have for the people there? I mean, it's an ongoing disaster, and it's one that's been building for years and years. It's one of the poorest countries in the world.

which doesn't look great for the United States bombing it, or indeed anyone else. It is on a par with Afghanistan in terms of poverty. I think Afghanistan comes a little higher on the poverty index, which gives you an idea of where it is. It suffered the world's largest cholera outbreak ever that wasn't really widely reported in the Western media.

And it has had an infrastructure that is absolutely shattered and ruined by over a decade of civil war. And there's nothing really there apart from poor people that are desperate. And to have the capital city bombed again and again and again, I mean, there's, I don't know, I feel for them in the way that

What are they going to get out of this? The worst thing that's going to happen to them is what's happening to them already. They're going to get bombed even further. And it'll be things like harbors. It'll be things like targets within the capital city and in other cities and towns. It won't just be somewhere in a secluded mountaintop somewhere. It'll be population centers that are going to feel the brunt of this.

So this is going to further destroy what was already barely surviving as it was. So the plight of the Yemenis isn't over and I fear it's going to get worse. And as we know, even in just this latest attack, the majority of casualties were women and children. Yeah.

this is, this goes back to the population centers, doesn't it? I mean, these are ordinary people going about their ordinary lives, trying to get things done, trying to survive in a country that hasn't really got much in the way of employment in terms of resources, in terms of any kind of fallback. Should you suddenly lose everything you have, your house, your livelihood? There's no state as such to be able to come in there and protect you. So,

yeah, it's an awful tale that's getting worse, unfortunately. And this is just the latest round which is going to make the lives of Yemenis that much worse. And that's The Take.

This episode was produced by Khaled Sultan, Chloe K. Lee, with Amy Walters, Melanie Marich, Hannah Shokir, Rimas Alhawari, and me, Natasha Del Toro. It was edited by Noor Wazwaz. Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abusala and Mohanad Almelhem. Alexander Locke is the Take's executive producer. Ney Alvarez is Al Jazeera's head of audio. We'll be back tomorrow.