Ambassador Rahm Emanuel on the New Japan, Contending With China, and Biden’s Calm
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Hi, everyone. From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is On with Kara Swisher, and I'm Kara Swisher. My guest today is Rahm Emanuel. He's currently ambassador to Japan, but you may know him as Mayor Rahm Emanuel from his time running Chicago, or Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel from his early years in the Obama administration, or as Congressman Rahm Emanuel when he repped Illinois in the U.S. House. You also may know him as Ari Emanuel's brother.

Rahm is definitely a Washington insider. He's worked for three presidents, Biden, Obama, and Clinton, so it's not surprising he'd land a plum appointment, especially one thought of as a cushy gig for influential presidential pals like Carolyn Kennedy, whom Obama sent to Tokyo. But Rahm is neither quiet nor a cushy guy. From pushing Japan on gay rights to using his seat to taunt China on X, he's hardly your typical diplomat.

I think a lot of people were surprised when Rahm Emanuel became an ambassador. So I wanted to talk to him about that and also about Japan, China, and about how being outside the U.S. makes him reflect on our internal politics, including the likely Biden-Trump rematch in November. And speaking of that aging sequel in November, today's question is from another veteran insider and recent Biden skeptic,

David Axelrod, the former Obama campaign strategist and senior advisor to the president who also hosts the podcast The Axe Files over at CNN. These two have been friends since 1982, and David has a smart question for Mr. Emanuel. We'll hear from Ram on that and more after the break. ♪♪♪

Hi, Ron. Welcome to the show. Thank you. How are you? Good. How's Tokyo? Konnichiwa. Ikagadesuka. Kazuyo Hikimishita. That is my entire range of Japanese. There it is. That's your range? I have a cold. Oh, okay.

It was very good. Oh, and that's okay. That's all you got. I have a lot to talk about with you. I think I'll start off with Japan. A lot of people see ambassador appointments as retirement or rewards, and you certainly have had a long, long career. But I was wondering why you wanted Japan and why you thought it was pivotal right now.

Well, let me do that in reverse. I do think it's pivotal at this moment. A couple reasons. One is the relationship between the United States and Japan is kind of morphing or evolving from one that was always about alliance protection to alliance projection.

When you look at the bilateral relationship, you look at the trilateral, the president kind of convened a Camp David between the United States, Japan, and Korea. You look at the quad, India, Australia, Japan, United States, you kind of look at it and Japan is the constant by our side. And the position of the United States in the region on a security basis is going from kind of a hub and spoke system to more of a lattice system.

And Japan is the key essential part of that that is the glue for us. And that's one on the security side. Second is Japan is the number one investor in the United States. The United States is the number one investor in Japan. And I think commercial statecraft is an important part of this effort. And then third on a very personal, which is when I first started dating Amy,

I told him, made two pledges. One is I would never run for office. So I'm like 0 for 6 on that pledge. Okay, got it. But the second pledge was that we would at some point in our lives live overseas.

And so now... Here you are. So it's not, for you, it's not sort of that, you know, plum appointment kind of things. Because the previous was Carolyn Kennedy and others. There was Walter, Vice President Mondale, Senate... But I always, I mean, I do this in every job. I did this mayor, chief of staff. You're going to walk out. You're going to turn around, wave from the plane or, you know, get in the car and leave, hand in your White House badge.

You're going to look back and you want to say, OK, what did I do? And my goal here wasn't I is it's not like my Wikipedia page is empty, but that's not why I wanted to do this. And I think President Biden, when he called about two weeks, three weeks after he got elected, wasn't even president yet. He wanted to return to the model of Vice President Walter Mondale, Speaker Tom Foley, Senate Majority Leaders Mansfield and Baker to that kind of political person.

And I thought this was, it was right in the sweet spot historically. So that's a long about answer. Had you had a particular affiliation for Japan or, you know, that you thought it was important? I had done certain things over my career in public service, but nothing that you would say kind of my... Yeah, nothing that would kind of...

Point two that would say so kind of cornerstone that you would say Japan versus Korea in the region. If you looked at my record in working as both mayor and chief of staff and then congressman, it'd be more around the Middle East and Israel specifically. But the Middle East by President Clinton's side on both Camp David, the Y plantation agreement and Oslo, but not, no. Yeah.

that's also the... In January, you said you had a message for all Japan experts in Washington, quote, you don't know Japan today, you're wrong. Explain what you meant by that. What I said was, there's a new Japan. And the old Japan that they knew was not wrong, it was right. But they had not been here post COVID to realize all the changes. They went from before there was even a tank on the Ukrainian border, Russian tank,

They said, we're going to increase our budget from 1% to 2%, a change in 60-year policy. Only 11 of the 33 countries in NATO have gotten to the 2%. They're going to become the third largest defense budget in the world. They adopted counter-strike capabilities, 400 Tomahawks, things that had never been done before. They agreed to relicensing the Patriot missile back to the United States. I wouldn't call it a full export because this is a licensing, but something they said they would never do in 70 years. Three changes...

in 70-year policies in the blink of an eye. And they're moving because of the strategic challenges and because they now want to step up in a bigger way, which goes back to the first question. I thought that there was a different moment in time, and I wanted to be part of that when I decided I said yes to being ambassador. Second is, I think in this area, they're moving so fast. They used to be the ones we were pushing. We're the ones that are going slow.

were the ones that need to kind of pick up the pace. There was also a Japan, you know, second item was, oh, the economy's stuck in neutral. It will never go anywhere. The lost decade became lost three decades. Warren Buffett, pretty smart investor, put 7% in every one of the major trading houses and has now made, because of that, billions of dollars because the market now is at a 30-year high.

manifestations of other things that are happening in the economy. As the rest of the world now has demographic challenges, Japan had it beforehand. Who are the leaders in robotics dealing with labor shortages? The Japanese have a 20-year head start. I've made it a project. I'm now sitting down with every CEO of a major robotics company to learn what Japan has done, which is in that area, specifically robotics, is ahead on AI than any other country.

In robotics. In robotics. Only in robotics because they're behind in cars. They're behind in a lot of technology. They're behind. They're certainly not leading the way China is in EVs, for example, or the U.S. in EVs, too. That is correct, but they are leading in hybrids, which is where the customers are right now. So anyway, my bigger point was this is a different Japan than the one that kind of got in the, as why I really do describe the relationship today as going from alliance protection to alliance projection.

And I think that that is, we as Americans have to update our paradigm the way we think of Japan. It is not the country that is stuck in neutral strategically, economically, et cetera, or diplomatically. And they're ready to move and adopt a bit more significant partnership with us and projection. And so my view is,

People that told me to be patient, I think, which is not a strong suit of mine, need to realize that I don't think that's the Japan that they know. Last week, U.S. and Japan conducted joint military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. Talk about Japan's defense commitment to Taiwan. Obviously, you know, we're dealing with Ukraine, we're dealing with the Mideast, but Japan

But, you know, everyone feels like it's a precursor to a possible situation in Taiwan, which I think would be probably the most disastrous given. I don't want to sack rank disasters right now. But talk about the commitment, defense commitment to Taiwan, because Japan will play the central role in that or at least one of the central roles. Well, you're not wrong to ask about Taiwan. There's also obviously Taiwan.

what's happening off the coast of the Philippines in the South China Sea. But as it relates to Taiwan, there's a number of scenarios people think about. There's economic isolation, blockade, and then there's the military option. This is by China. By China. Definitely not by us or Japan. Japan actually has a history with Taiwan, independent of ours. I don't think they've explicitly said, here's what we're going to do.

But when Speaker Pelosi came in, there was a major military projection by China, and it was reported publicly, and this was a decision by President Xi, fired five missiles into the Japan EEZ at that time when they were doing a military exercise. They're constantly harassing the Senkaku Islands off of the Japanese coast. There's a conflict between China and Japan about those things.

Islands. They've never said, here's where we're going to stand in the same way that we have never said, here's where we're going to stand. But when you look at the type of details of their budget, it's both has a self-defense force that also has a significant part to the projection of deterrence that we need.

Which is, so you don't need, would you like a more explicit, stronger commitment? It's not one for the U.S. ambassador to Japan. What about for the Biden administration? Let me answer it this way, to think strategically. And I know it was about Japan. We have a historic exercise called Keen Edge, always bilateral. Australia is part of that now, with Japan and the United States. One of the things that is a deterrent to China, it's one thing if it's just Taiwan or the United States.

It's another thing when many, many other countries, including Europeans, Great Britain and France have participated in a recent exercise in the South China Sea. That has a multinational that has its own kind of

tapping the brakes on China. On China. Now, after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, actually, Japanese Prime Minister Tsufumio Kishida said, quote, Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. Do you feel that's where we're headed in East Asia? I think. And I don't mean the Russians. No, I'm not. Thanks for the clarification. Good luck. Good luck, Putin. Yeah. Here's what I would say. You never know in this world where deterrence ends forever.

and provocation begins. And I also think too often in our debate in the States, when we think of deterrence, we think about how many warships, how many aircraft carriers, how many jets, F-35s are brought in. I happen to think what President Biden achieved at Camp David between Japan and Korea and the United States at Trilado, that's a major piece of deterrence.

Because China's strategy has been for 30 years that Korea and Japan and the United States can never all get on the same page. That was accomplished. And since Camp David, there's been 34 different trilateral meetings from the military side, the intelligence side, the diplomatic side. Jake Sullivan and I were there a month ago in Korea where the national security advisors met. So that is a big piece of deterrence.

Small thing, but the United States and Japan universities have a quantum computing entity. A Korea university was added to it. That's a component of deterrence. When you do military exercise and they become from bilateral and multilateral, that is deterrence. The short of it is Japan isn't going to be explicit, but we have a level of deterrence that I think is starting to have an impact. Take a look at the Taiwan election.

They haven't overreacted to it, which everybody thought. Now, we'll see what happens in the inaugural. This is electing someone who is much more anti-Chinese, I guess. I don't know how to describe it. What they're worried about is much more explicit about Taiwan. It was not the official they wanted elected.

Well, they try to, let me say this, they're all thumbs politically because they try to interfere and it fell apart around them. They're not really good at democracy or building party culture. Yeah, well, they're not doing a bad job over here with misinformation, I have to say. But we'll get to that in a second. I'd love to get an idea of what does the relationship with Japan look like in 10 years? You know, when you and I were growing up, it was quite tense, largely over economic issues, right, in terms of dominance.

that's gone away. Yeah, I mean, it's funny you say, so I was saying in another conversation the other day, politically, I started my national career working for Bill Clinton's 92 election. We were running ads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, and I helped draft them against Japan. You couldn't do that today.

largest single investor in the United States is Japan and Japan companies. You couldn't run that ad today. So there is no sand in the gear between the United States and Japan. Do they know you wrote those ads? I tell them. I know you find that hard to do. Yeah. Yeah. That's another quality I bring to diplomacy. Oh, yeah. I tell them up front. And that tells you why the world is slightly different.

And so in 10 years, it would be hard, I'm even loathe to predict two years out. But if you have the trust that's there between the United States, you know, you can sit there and have the contracts, the we're going to protect Japan, which is all true, etc. But I've been around now three presidents, and there is that also the quality of trust you can see by tourism,

cultural things from Otani playing baseball to the boy in the Huron in movies or Godzilla minus. You can see the United States culture here. There's a tremendous people-to-people confidence, tremendous relationship. But to move the big pieces strategically on the table, you also need trust in the words and the leaders that countries give. And so I think it's on the right path.

I do think we're laying a foundation, what I said at my Senate confirmation, I'd set it to be pithy, and I didn't think I would be prescient, but what we do in the next three years will determine the next 30 years. And I think that's true, and I'm more confident today. What's your greatest worry with that relationship? My greatest worry is, which would be true, I suppose, with any ally, but in this region is what we're willing to do. We're a presence here in Japan, in the region.

Japan is in the region and we may not see existential threats the same way. We may not see security threats the same way. And even if we did, we may not see the response the same way. I'm not saying that's

A major worry? It's a concern, I would put it under that category. I know this will maybe come as a surprise if you ask. Given all the things that Japan's ready to do and is moving, you need a strong and vibrant Japan economy. You need also a strong and vibrant U.S. economy. My worry is that they start doing things on the security front, which we've been wanting to do, yet the foundation of the economy and society is

Not just population-wise is shrinking, but they are the third largest economy. It's hard to ask them to do X, Y, and Z and keep doing and investing if they go from three, metaphorically, to four. Yeah. So I want a full, strong Japan. They're unbelievably popular in the region. You want Japan that starts to make investment in their own self-defense and project that. That's happening. That's what you're talking about. You need the economy...

to sustain all that. And so that, if you ask me, that would be the big, that would be a significant concern. Oddly enough, I thought, I thought you would say getting Taylor Swift back to the U.S. for the Super Bowl. That was very strange. Press release, the Jeff. I am, I am, you know,

In all advertising and truth, I am going to the concert. Well, of course you are. Go ahead. It's part of my diplomatic effort of introducing American culture. Yeah, they don't know about Taylor Swift. She's an unknown. We'll see how she does. But that was a strange renouncement from the jet. We'll get her back in time, America. What prompted that? Did you make them do that? No, I didn't make them do that. I thought it was actually quite smart.

Yeah. You know, one of the things, you didn't ask this, but I just pivot off. You know, I think, I mean, one of the things I'm probably going to, one thing is redefining public diplomacy. When I first got here, I said, I'm going to take, I've taken trains my whole life. Mayor took trains to work. Chief of staff used to take the train up to New York or whatever. I got security as secret service at the state. No, you can't.

I said, no, I'm going to do it. And we fought for a second. I said, I'm getting on the train. You'll figure out security. And trust me, if I can do it in Chicago, I can do it in Tokyo. Now it's become like kind of a brand. In fact, when I told, I had our guys go back and do research here. When the United States comes to the country and state, the secretary of state, it's like eight SUVs. We pull in, everybody gets out, secret service everywhere, go into a meeting, walk out. I said, we look exactly as arrogant power as we are.

So I said, we're going to change that. We're going to have to engage the public where they live. And we're going to have to show a different America.

And I think I give the Japanese ambassador credit for that. Credit for doing that. Yeah. Because you got to redefine public diplomacy. I think she'll have more impact than you taking a train. Let's focus back on China. So it's more than a decade since the Obama administration announced the pivot to Asia, which is what it was called. You had a front seat back then as you do now. I'm curious how you think the pivot looks today. And was it the right choice, especially considering how China's power in Asia has evolved and evolved?

in U.S. powers, say in the Middle East, has diminished? I don't know if I agree with that assessment. Okay. I don't, probably the one thing that I'm not sure pivot, if you're a superpower, which the United States is, you don't, now obviously each area has a different prioritization, but you're a superpower means you play, you're a significant player in all areas. I think my assessment, you know, I know there's a lot of big thinkers or whatever, you know,

But look, our basic message to the region is we're a permanent Pacific power in presence, and you can bet long on America. China's message, we're the rising power. America's declining. Either get in line, or you're going to get the Philippine treatment. Now, a lot of big thinkers can dress it up, but that's basically the strategic visions of both countries. Well, you look at China today.

And nobody's going to say China's rising, America's declining. Their stock market's off by $6 trillion. Ours is a record high. Capital outflow. We have capital inflow. You look at those economic measures. You look at political measures. Australia, Korea, Japan, China.

India, Vietnam, Philippines, you go down the list, they're all saying we want more of America. We want a counter, we want, some are real close, some are we want the counterweight. And then third, you take a look at China in the region,

They have a land war, a conflict with India or two hits. They have a constant problem with the Philippines on the islands, a problem with Japan on the Senkaku Islands. They're constantly harassing our planes, Australian planes, Canadian planes. There's nobody in the region they're not having a problem with, and nobody in the region is not saying to the United States, please stay here and be more present. So I'm not sure I would say that's one of kind of on the emphasis of China is not...

As strong as one thinks it is around the globe. Not only is it strong, I look at China as three Chinas, and there are kind of three rings around Saturn. The core ring is the calm one. They need calm between the Communist Party and the people, and that's one that's most stressful right now. Capital's leaving, people are trying to flee, the fourth biggest ethnic group being caught on the south border of the United States are Chinese.

And if you're going to pay to get there, that's $10,000. That's middle-class people fleeing. Here in Japan, every condo above $2 million in Tokyo has a Chinese bidder. So money and people are fleeing. But their calm is rattling. In the region, the next circle or the next kind of ring is the conflict. So one is calm. The other one is conflict. India, Philippines, Japan, Korea, there's not a single neighbor. China would never win the award for good neighbor policy.

And then the outer outer ring is what I call the charm ring. All we want is good trade. We just want to be, everybody be happy in their own sovereign area. And in my view, the stress in China now is that because the one that they need calm, the one that they need legitimacy from the public is the one that's under the greatest amount of stress. They are doing better convincing Pakistan

or Sri Lanka about something, then they are convincing the Chinese people about the legitimacy of the PRC. Okay. You seem to relish antagonizing the Chinese government on X, and the White House did ask you to scale it back, apparently. Talk about that, what you were doing there. Well, first of all, the White House didn't, because if they did, it would not explain the other 15 times post that, if not. Okay. Because my view is, look, I'm pointing out

the truth and the hypocrisy. Classic example, China banned all the fish from the Japanese waters after they started releasing water from Fukushima area. Yet they keep fishing in the Japanese waters themselves, fishing those fish and doing it in a pretty aggressive fashion. So I exposed the pictures. Second is when it came to the missing defense minister. You have a

500 nuclear weapons and on your way to over a thousand. There's no defense minister and you're not going to say it? And so my view is their hypocrisy, their lack of transparency, we all paid a price in COVID for the lack of transparency.

Call it out and, in my view, expose the real China because there's a tension between the charm China, the conflict China. There's a tension between the conflict China and the calm China. And so I'm going to call it out because it's also, we have had a period of time, especially the last 15 years, where the economic espionage

The intellectual property theft has caused tremendous conflict with the United States and the West. And we can't just continue to act as if that's not happening. I'll call out something else. I think when in San Francisco, when the U.S. CEO stood up and gave a standing ovation to President Xi multiple times. Well, they like to do that. They were giving a standing ovation to a head of Saudi Arabia. No, but here's my thing is,

The United States taxpayers fund the research and development in your companies. We're equity investors. What makes you think you're, which part of the intellectual property theft and the economic espionage did you enjoy the most? And until China changes that behavior, I mean, you should greet them nicely, but you don't go sit there and act like what's happening here, a country of a rule of one as opposed to the rule of law, which is how you prosper, right?

You're allowed to kind of just walk away from, I'm not saying enforcing of a U.S. position, but understand that there's real principles involved. Sure. They like the rule of one, in case you're interested. You've said that the three Cs have changed the world. Well, dual class stock. Nice to meet you. You said that the three Cs have changed the world, COVID conflict and coercive economic policy. In this case, you've called Chinese economic coercion. Mm-hmm.

What do you do about that? What does the Biden administration do about that? And sort of define what you mean by economic coercion. Well, take what I just mentioned on economic coercion. They banned any fish from Japanese fishermen in the Japanese waters, yet are still fishing themselves. And they're punishing Japan for their defense budget. They're punishing them. They did it to Australia when the Australian prime minister said we should find the origins of COVID.

And they had a three-year ban where they just finally threw in the towel. South Korea decided to deploy the THAAD. There was a massive boycott of all Korean companies in China. That's coercion. I think it was the Dallas coach at either Dallas or San Antonio said something about Hong Kong. NBA. NBA.

That's coercion. They're using their economic power to achieve political ends. So just so you know, you met Daryl Morey, the general manager of the Houston Rockets. That's who you just referred to. Yeah, I couldn't remember. I was going to say, I picked San Antonio and Dallas and I got it wrong. Yeah, yeah, it's the Houston Rockets. So I just want to- U.S. history for 200. Yeah, okay. All right. So what should the Biden administration do? Let's pick COVID. Should we press more on the origins of COVID or is there an area that's more important to you? Well, I do think-

We gave a speech at Tokyo University about a year ago that when you look at Australia, the Philippines, Korea, Japan, which was targeted in 2015 on rare materials, Lithuania, you can beat back coercion through the unity of many. Because what China is trying to do is isolate Philippines, isolate Japan. And it's the unity of other countries that...

participate in the economic survival of that country. And just most recently, China, after three years, threw in the towel on Australia because they were not succeeding because Australia was expanding their economic trade with other countries. That's how you beat back using economic power to achieve political aims. And it's your partners and friends that come to your defense that isolate China rather than isolate the target. So that's a simple thing. On COVID,

There's kind of two parts I would say. I think you can look at every country, including the United States. We're all adapting right now to what I call the three C's that fundamentally change the world, COVID, conflict, and coercion. On COVID, yesterday we opened up the CDC office right here for the first time here in Japan because China did not

do what Japan did on Fukushima. Let me explain that briefly. And we're going to have a crisis in the future somewhere that comes from a country, and you're going to want that country to follow the Japan protocols. Fully transparent, fully based on scientific methodology, and internationally observant. China did none of that when it came to COVID. We still don't know the origin. Market versus the lab.

They withheld information from the international scientific community. When the World Health Organization was going to look at it, they pressured them. Look at Japan on the water from the Fukushima plant from 10 years ago. It has been internationally observed. IAA has overseen it. It's constantly being monitored, fully transparent with the data to the country. Those are the standards we want to see every country adopt. And on COVID-19,

While the illness, I wouldn't say is behind us, the crisis moment of it is, we need to set up standards in the future, not just for how to discover it, but how we all learn from each other, which is built on trust. This country tried this method, it's working. This country tried that method, it's failing. You want that transparency. And nothing China does that they think would bring shame on them is ever transparent.

And that is a problem because you have to have an international system with a superpower that is participatory in a basic set of rules of scientific methodology, transparency, and international involvement. But one of the things is at the same time, President Biden is making a serious effort to improve relations between the United States and China. So decoupling and also reengaging. You do sound a lot more like, I just interviewed a Mike Gallagher, who I think is...

Quite sharp on this stuff. I do. I think that's why I interviewed him. What's the view from inside the administration? Are we in a Cold War or a critical moment to de-escalate? I think we're in a, the way I would describe, I wouldn't describe it as a Cold War. I don't think that's a good, I don't think it's an appropriate metaphor to the relationship.

just purely on economic terms, we do much more trade with China in a single year than we did with Russia in a decade, or the Soviet Union. Critically important. I think we're in the period of time of, I don't want to just say realism, because I think we realize China's a mercantilist system, meaning they're going to pick a target of an industry, subsidize it all the way, and undercut price. Solar panels is a classic. We're saying, okay, post-COVID, post-coercion,

We can't be in a position where you, sector by sector, just pluck them, undermine our individual private companies, and then dominate a sector that's critical to the economy. You want to be a full international partner? We're going to respect that, but we're not going to leave ourselves ever again vulnerable to you because you're not playing by a set of rules. And I don't mean playing like in the sandbox. I mean, if you are going to be a mercantilist system and we're going to be a quote-unquote

capitalist system of the role of private sector, you cannot use the state wallet to undermine our individual companies. That's just not competition based on a set of rules that we can operate under. So we're going to protect those industries. When it comes to the geostrategic, you're not going to be able to push us out. We are a permanent Pacific power and presence. And our allies, which you have none of besides North Korea, want us there. And we're going to be very clear about that. We're not going anywhere.

So I think it's a mature relationship is what I would call it. Realism. Well, it's realistic. It's mature. We're going to respect the fact, and I do think this, you can say X, Y, and Z about the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese culture, the Chinese people have immense amount to contribute to the well-being of humanity. The culture is incredibly rich. There's a tremendous scientific basis there.

It is the Communist Party and the way governed today versus the past that is much different. And we're going to have to be realistic about that. We'll be back in a minute.

I have a question for you. We've started asking questions from different, I call them, call a friend. But I have a question for you. Well, maybe your definition of friend and my definition of friend. I think you'll like this person. I was trying to get your brother, but he screwed up all the technology. Which one? Ari, but he just... Yeah, but don't, Emanuel's and technology are not... He sent me a disappearing message and then he just...

called me eight times. It was really exhausting. So I got a question from somebody you go way back with, and it's actually about Japan, but also I want to shift a little bit to domestic politics, but it's a perfect shift. David Axelrod. Let's hear his question.

Hey, Ram, it's your old buddy from Chicago calling. I'm curious about just how much time you're spending these days answering questions and providing therapy for leaders in Japan and Asia about our presidential elections. How high is their anxiety about the uncertainties and just how difficult does that make your ability to strike long-term deals? And Ram, don't try and bullshit Kara. She's way too smart for that.

I can't believe the guy that signed my ketubah at my wedding.

decided to do that question. All right, but there it is. It's a good question. Yeah. It's a good question. The honest answer is I spend time on it. It's not the most dominant, but it's not the six out of the top five. In the United States, people are making a long-term bet on the United States. President Biden, I think you can say different things about him, but I can say this as a friend, but also as somebody who works for him, incredible investor in allies and alliances. That's just not Donald Trump's approach.

Made Korea, but I can say for Japan, feel very insecure that this was basically a real estate deal. Why do we have these military commitments? So it's a question that gets raised. Is the worry high that we're going to have more visits with the North Korean leader? They're very cognizant of American politics because it's intimately involved in their strategic security.

and their strategic posture. And so they watch American politics. They're very cognizant of it. And they're very cognizant because the approach to Japan is starkly different. It's not kind of nuanced. So worried, would you characterize them as worried? In February of 2024, I wouldn't say worry, but obviously as we get closer and closer to election,

the interest in it is increasing every level. That's a fact. And we have, I don't think, you've obviously talked to a lot of experts beforehand. I don't think any one of them did not tell you that this relationship is in a different place than it was over the last 20 years. And so we're making real progress. You don't want to see that come to a screeching halt because Japan, we're going from a hub and spoke to a LATA system of which Japan is the constant in that strategic vision.

So a lot of concern about Biden, despite his enormous legislative wins and the excellent health of the economy, given the tumult we've been through post-pandemic. People are talking about his age, his handling of Afghanistan, and more recently his visit on Gaza with the Palestinians. One of the polls released last week had him...

ahead, pull ahead of Trump. The one by NBC, though, this week had him far behind Trump on the economy, which is inexplicable, which is cooking with gas now. Talk about what, from your perspective, the key indicators of the race are right now. How are you looking at this? And what do you imagine, what do you think is happening here? And you're not living in the United States, but you obviously pay attention.

Yeah, I mean, it is interesting having always been in the, what I call Disneyland on the Potomac. When you get 8,000 miles away, your perspective on things. So, I mean, one, I'll get right to the election, but I think this is true in Europe, United States. You know how we always talk about long haul COVID on the body, the impact? I think there's long haul COVID on the body politic. I think there's a massive difference

turmoil and discontent. Some of it's economic. Some of it is legitimately cultural as well as economic. And I think COVID kind of snapped something. And so I call it the long, there's long haul COVID in the body politic. And I look at this election, and if I was to give you

And again, I got to be careful. I got to watch. Please don't. I know. I can see that. Teasing me here. I got to make sure my bad. You know who you want to. My bad juju jeans. I got to still remember I'm a diplomat and not allowed to be partisan. You want to say you call the code red. Go ahead. No, no. I got to be wearing the Michigan dad baseball cap to do that. We just went through a period of time where.

where for the first time, a public health crisis changed your kid's school. And it started in some other country. You just had like a conflict and now you have massive inflation. And so things that were happening outside of the United States have now come right to the front door into your kitchen table. Your kids are going to a four-day school day. Your spouse or partner is now still working at the dining room table when you're hoping to get to the office. So things have just

They have, and they want everything back to order. Calm down. Now, again, I want to be careful. One of the things in like the CNN poll that I thought was interesting, if you were looking at the campaign, slightly in the mezzanine, not in the front row or on the bench, 62% of the country thought that President Biden was from the mainstream. They think he's honest. I forgot the exact honest number, but even with all partisanship, those are good numbers.

And yet by almost equal number, I think it was over 60, thought that Trump was from the extreme. And I think there's a thread there that captures slightly the mood of the country, slightly the election, where a lot of people think about, and especially when you're in the presidential race, issues matter in the presidential, but character for a chief executive has a bigger role to play than it does in the legislative election. And I think there's a piece there

about Joe Biden that I think is, and again, I got to be careful here, that I think will resonate with where the mood of the country is going. And every election has a story, every election. When after President Obama's eight years, Hillary was continuity president.

Trump was change and the zeitgeist was not towards continuity. Yeah, it was change. In the same way that in 2020, the narrative or story around that election was chaos versus calm or stability. This will have a narrative too. So what is that narrative? What is that narrative from your perspective? I can say this to you since in conversation I said, so like I looked at like the 2022 election. I said, four men changed that election.

One was Joe Biden and what he got done in the first two years of presidency. One was Trump announcing he was going to run for president. Third, Sam Alito and his decision on abortion, the Dobbs decision. And fourth, the beating of Paul Pelosi. Those four, because you looked at independent voters about two weeks out, which usually go to the opposition party, swung. I think the president's very passionate about his defense of democracy.

But I would nuance it to the violence associated around democracy or undermining it. That's what happened after the 2020 election. You saw what happened when the individual broke into Nancy's and Paul Pelosi's home and created violence there. And I think people are uneased by that. So I think the story is about... Keeping things calm. Well, keeping things calm and just back to a sense of a norm, right?

that people are seeking. Yeah. Right. And yet he seems to be doing okay, especially because he's pressing on issues of immigration and crime. Is that effective from your perspective or will this need for calmness? Because if you're looking for calm, you don't pick that guy, right? That's chaos. And I think Nikki Haley is saying that, you know, I think that I can see my, after this, I'm going to get called in front of the U S Senate foreign affairs committee. So let me just kind of be careful here. Okay. My answer to you is,

There is money in the mine between somebody viewed as part of the mainstream and somebody in view is part of the extreme. That gets to this itch and it should be scratched. And there's an opportunity in that character piece. I mean, when you look at other presidential campaigns, President Clinton, when we ran that video in 1992 of him, the kid that came from Hope, Arkansas, said,

single mother, one side of the tracks, making it to Rhodes Scholar, Oxford. There was a story there. And after 12 years of Reagan and Bush, that story caught the energy. Hope you can believe it. Where President Obama was in 2008, it was that personal story that captured and touched a nerve in the American story.

And I think there's a story there. So that's what you advise if he was a viewer? I do not want to get... Oh, you do not. I don't want this to be my last interview ever. Okay. All right. Okay. All right. So do you have a prediction? I only have two more questions. Do you have a prediction? And then I have a final question. Do you have a prediction for the presidential election? Are you surprised by Trump's resilience?

I'm not surprised where the Republicans are. I'm not ready to conclude that that's a national resilience. Okay. Do you think Nikki Haley has any shot here besides appearing on SNL? The American people will never cease to surprise you. I'd leave it to other people who are experts in the Republican field.

primary or it's much better prognosis. But I would say you'd have to say Donald Trump's the presumptive nominee and you should operate assuming that. Assuming that. Dick Durbin is, it might, it turns out this year he hasn't signaled anything. Would you run for the seat if he retired, if Trump won? No.

No. Okay. Last question. And this is a good one. As someone who's very successful at a fairly young age, and I'm not calling you old, what conversations today are you having with young hotshot staffers to tell you about the political world of the future? Very easy question. That is really a horrible thing to end the interview on, given I can...

I can only say what I tell my kids. I tell everybody that every graduation, you need to give something back to your community or your country. I think of what I do as the ultimate in public service. I have one child who's full in the Navy after college, another one who's now going Navy Reserve. You have to give something. I do believe in the strength of our diversity as a country, but you can't have the diversity become an asset unless you have a foundation you agree in.

And that foundation comes from the threads that we share. Now, I'm a work in progress on this. I got to be honest on this. I'm trying to do a better job listening to people I disagree with. And I think we all have to play a role in giving something. Now, back to our country or back to our community. I wrote about this with Bruce Reed when we wrote our book back in 2005 about national service. And, you know, my generation, give up on it.

My kids' generation, which I do love their sense of engagement in civic and social and political, which is different than ours. We had to beat people to care. Their generation cares so much, but they don't want to compromise on anything. They got to learn from each other. They got to see and hear people. And I think the best way to do that is take the last semester of high school.

and make it a more emphasis on service and less on academics. Use that to build civic education in a way, and I think we'll be a better country for it. That's what I would tell you. I think that's great. My very last question, Ambassador Emanuel, how jealous is your brother Ari of that title? You know, everybody else I say, you can call me Ram. My brothers, Ambassador Excellency. That's it. Not Ram. No, up, up.

I at least make mom and dad proud. I can't tell you what you two do, but I know what I, mom and dad love me. You know what? We're going to get you an invite to a family Thanksgiving and see if you can survive. I've been waiting. I've been promised. I've been promised over and over again by your other brother. You know, you've picked the only fourth son my mother loves, David. Yeah. All right. I have to run. I have a meeting at the house. Thank you. I appreciate it. Thank you, Ambassador Emanuel.

On with Kara Swisher is produced by Naeem Araza, Christian Castro-Rosell, Kateri Yochum, Megan Cunane, Megan Burney, and Michael McDowell. Special thanks to Mary Mathis, Kate Gallagher, and Andrea Lopez-Cruzado. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan. Our theme music is by Trackademics.

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