Medicare’s $6B Savings on Costly Drugs & Musk’s Unhinged Image Chatbot
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Kyle Hagee. Today, why Mickey Mouse committing unspeakable acts is blowing up your Twitter feed. And why your favorite influencer's follower account might be going down soon. Today is Friday, August 16th. Let's ride. Let's ride.

Trouble is brewing in the land of the sweet onion chicken teriyaki. According to the New York Post, Subway held what was described as an emergency meeting yesterday with franchisees at its sub shops to strategize how to reverse falling sales and win back market share. The company pushed back on the idea that this was an emergency meeting, but maybe it should have been. Subway franchisees told the Post that the

that sales in recent weeks are down 10% from the previous year, while heavy discounts and promotions are eating into profits. Big nationwide TV ads featuring Steph Curry and Charles Barkley do not appear to be moving the needle, nor do new menu items like $3 hot dipper snacks. Kyle, what is your plan to fix Subway? Well, I just got to say one, if Steph Curry can't save your company, it might be over for you. I could fix this company in one day, guaranteed.

The answer is $5 footlong. Bring it back.

And that's all you need to do. That's the problem, Kyle. That's all you need to do. The problem is they are offering menu items for $11, $12, but they're sending out all these promotions for $5, $6, $7, and nobody is making money. Yeah, if the sweet onion chicken teriyaki, Steph Curry, or a $5 foot long can't save you, it might just be RIP to Subway. It might be, but there are so many Subway locations. They have more than 20 locations across the U.S., which is more than any other.

other food chain. Meanwhile, they sold themselves to a private equity firm for $9 billion recently. They have these interest payments on debt coming up, and so they can't really afford to have falling sales like they are now. So I kind of see this as an emergency meeting because they have to turn things around. I just don't know what they're going to do. I can't imagine being a Subway franchisee and getting a tax on private equity at 3 a.m. Like, get to the store. We need to fix this company. Let's take a word from our sponsor now, Beehive.

Neil, there's no better feeling than telling a friend about a great restaurant, TV show, song, and have them absolutely loving it all because of your recommendations. Truly one of the best feelings in the world. Friends come to me all the time wanting to know where to get the best food in various cities. And I got to say, I give them pretty solid recs. Just go to the nearest Subway. You do. And I'll do you one better. Think about all the times your friends give tips to their friends.

based on the very same recommendation you gave them. I mean, you're talking about an exponential amount of people you can reach. - You're right. It's almost like my influence extends to the far reaches of the world.

Such power. Neil, are you good? Yeah. Sorry. What were you saying? My point is that's what Beehive's referral program is like. When you have such a great newsletter that you want your readers to share, Beehive can generate a super easy link that gives them credit for sharing it to their friends and colleagues. This incentive could be a discount, a free product, or a discount.

or merchandise. It is up to you. Sounds like an airtight strategy to grow your subscribers. If you are looking for an easy way to build a newsletter and spread the good word, visit beehive.com slash brew. That's B-E-E-H-I-I-V.com slash brew and get a 30 day free trial plus 20% off three months with code brew.

Dearest boomers, some of your prescription drugs are about to get cheaper. In a historic announcement yesterday, the Biden administration released the new lower prices Medicare will pay for 10 prescription drugs, including popular blood thinners and arthritis and diabetes drugs. Medicare is the government's health insurance program for older people, providing coverage for more than 67 million elderly and disabled Americans.

The reason costs are down is for the first time in its nearly 60 year history, Medicare was allowed to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, something something that until now only private insurers were permitted to do. But that changed when the Democrats Inflation Reduction Act was passed two years ago this week, actually, which aimed to lower drug prices by giving Medicare a seat at the negotiating table.

According to the Biden administration, the drug discounts range between 38 percent and 79 percent on a medications list price. But it's hard to know exactly how much of a deal Medicare is getting because no one actually pays the list price for a drug. There are always discounts and rebates involved. Still, the new prices should save both Medicare and consumers billions of dollars.

Medicare spent $50 billion covering the drugs last year, and taxpayers are projected to save $6 billion on the new prices. For older Americans, they could save as much as $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs for medications. Kyle, a landmark day for drug prices. What

was the view from the pharma industry? Yes, it is a great day to be a boomer. I mean, I'll go straight to the source. Chris Borner, the CEO of Bristol-Myers Squibb, said, quote, now that we have seen the final price, we're increasingly confident in our ability to navigate the impact of the IRA. However, I want to continue to emphasize that we firmly oppose government price setting under this new law. And so it is very interesting. I think the pharma company spent millions of dollars lobbying to defeat this.

It seems like they're convinced that negotiation is not part of the free market, but lobbying is, which seems a little bit interesting. And unfortunately, I think the pharma industry doesn't have the best reputation. So everything they say to the government about drug prices, I think most people are like, OK, you're just trying to talk up your own book.

However, there is fear that because they are making less money from these drugs, it could hurt innovation. It could hit new or hurt new drug development as well. What I found really interesting is most Americans, including senior citizens, obviously a very key voting block in this upcoming election,

They don't actually know about this law. It said only 48 percent of voters ages 65 and older are aware that Medicaid Medicare now has the power to negotiate price. So I think we're going to see a lot of the Biden administration talking about this law and making sure seniors know what they've delivered for them. Right.

So, I mean, this was a part of the Inflation Reduction Act. And I think when most Americans think about that, if they think about it at all, which I don't think they do, they think about these hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to clean energy programs. That was the main facet that has been talked up for the past couple of years in the Inflation Reduction Act. But it also included actual inflation reduction measures, lowering prices, which includes energy.

this prescription drug negotiating scheme, as well as a price cap of $35 on out-of-pocket insulin costs. So this was a big part of the IRA that was, you know, one of the biggest legislative accomplishments of the Biden administration that really no one is talking about.

But they just came out with these numbers. So I'm sure you will hear them talk about it more. Meanwhile, on the pharma industry side, you said like they they filed lawsuit after lawsuit to try to get this blocked. Now that it has come through the pipe, what you heard from them kind of every single one over the course of their earnings statements the past couple of weeks.

that these price reductions were not as bad as feared. So maybe Medicare just sucks at negotiating. But they seem like they're not going to lose that much profit or revenue from it. They said they're grumbling about it. They're like, we don't want this to happen. We don't want the government setting price caps because that will hinder drug development, that we have to spend a lot of money taking risks.

But in the end, it doesn't seem like they're losing that much money from what they've agreed to before for selling these drugs. Yeah, and obviously, healthcare in America is a very complex system. So I understand changing any little bit of it could have second-order effects that maybe we just can't anticipate. But as you mentioned, this is going to save the federal government about $6 billion in savings, $1.5 billion reduction in out-of-pocket costs for seniors. So they're...

There is a lot of savings here, and we'll see how it affects the pharma industry going forward. Although it does seem like they were like, this is the worst thing ever, passes, and they're like, okay, we're fine. We're fine. Everyone cool down. So we'll have to see how it plays out. But yes, a big day for senior citizens.

Let's turn now to the stock market, where we've seen some high volatility over the past few weeks, but I'm so glad to announce that we're back to the glory days, aka stock goes up. At least this is the case for Walmart, where the giant retailer reported a successful Q2. Revenue grew 4.8% up to $169 billion, and adjusted earnings also beat estimates at $0.67 per share. A

a 9.8% increase year over year. Walmart and other large retailers are kind of sometimes looked at for proxies on how inflation is affecting the economy and consumer spending. Walmart noted that grocery prices jumped 1.1% compared to a year ago, while dining out is up 4.1% year over year. And it's this delta between groceries and eating out that drove a ton of success

For the retailer, where groceries accounted for roughly 60% of Walmart's U.S. sales, the company also upped its guidance for earnings growth from 6% to 9%.

Neil, it seems like it's a pretty good day to be Walmart. What's your take on the news? Walmart is killing it. I mean, as we teased on the show yesterday, when those inflation numbers came out, the stock market kind of shrugged at those. And we're looking at Walmart earnings and retail sales data for July that came out yesterday. And both of those passed with flying colors. Walmart is crushing it. So many people are spending.

at Walmart. And then the retail sales data also came in great. People spending jumped 1% last month. So both of those figures showed an economy and a consumer that is fine, is good. It's not amazing because as Walmart showed, people are not spending so much on those discretionary purchases. They're not buying those want to have items. They're buying those need to have items. But luckily for Walmart, 60% of its sales are groceries, which

you need food. So Walmart is in a great position and economists look to Walmart earnings as this bellwether for the economy, for consumer spending, because 90% of the US population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store. So people are going to shop there or they're not going to shop there. And what they do at Walmart speaks a lot about the economy. And we got a pretty good grade.

And I'll say, I think Walmart has done an amazing job of getting shoppers across all income levels. And they've done an amazing job. One of the analysts was like, hey, this is not your father's Walmart from 10 to 15 years ago. They have Sam's Club, Walmart Plus. Retail media is a huge business for Walmart. They have their international brands. They have a private label. They have just done a great job of allowing any income people

to shop at their store. And I think you understand that Walmart is so much more than just the in-store experience. They have a very diversified business and you're seeing a payoff for them long term. Yeah, but did you say their revenue was like $169 billion? Yeah, they made $169 billion a square. They're doing pretty good. But now that all the retailers have basically reported earnings at this point, and what have we learned about where people are shopping? So

I would say people are pulling back on travel. We saw a lot of the airlines say people are not traveling as much as they expected and they're not buying big home purchases. Home Depot reported earlier this week and in a complete one 80 from Walmart, they were like, people are not spending. We're seeing a weakened consumer. They lowered their guidance for the rest of the year. So they are seeing, so people are not buying stuff for their houses. That seemed to be like a COVID thing, 2020 through 2022. Uh,

but they are spending on these need to have items, which is what Walmart sells. Walmart did also say that they are buying this one particular item, this one particular discretionary item. That is definitely not a need to have, but they sold like hotcakes last quarter pool items.

They said people are buying pool noodles by the dozen. They said combining all the pool noodles that Walmart sold last quarter, which if you place them back to back, they would stretch 30,000 football fields. There's always money in the pool noodles.

Well, if you've been on Twitter or X lately, you might have seen images ranging from the bizarre Barack Obama doing cocaine to the disturbing like a crazed Mickey Mouse doing 9-11 flooding the platform. Those are the product of Grok, the chatbot from Elon Musk's XAI that got new capabilities to create images from text prompts.

Grok is not the first AI chatbot to be able to produce images from text. Those have been around for years. But what makes Grok different is that it basically ignores all of the standard guardrails that other tech companies like OpenAI and Google have put in place. Those companies don't let you create images of public figures like politicians or celebrities. They block depictions of real-world violence, disrespect to religious figures, and images of copyrighted characters.

Well, Grok does not seem to care about any of that, save pornography, which it does ban. But none of this seems to be a problem for Grok's creator, Elon Musk, who is happy to let his image generator run free without any rules of the road. He wrote, "Grok is the most fun AI in the world and seemed to relish these surreal images being posted." Of course,

Of course, many critics don't find this funny at all and point to the growing problem of AI deepfakes, sexualized images of real people, and harassment that Grok could supercharge ahead of the election. Yeah, I just have to say, there could be any headline about Elon Musk at this point, any headline, and I would believe it. He is...

Yeah.

The platform is, I think, getting polluted by these images, which I saw all day yesterday flooding the timeline. What is also interesting is you've mentioned they've banned pornography. So they do have some rules in place. It just seems like they need to expand them more to have more copyright protections and

have some deepfake protections. So this seems like a big mess and hopefully it gets cleaned up soon. Yeah, I'm not sure whether Elon Musk is going to do that, though. I think he'll have to be forced to do it. And that could come from Europe, where he's already facing investigations from the EU, from the UK over...

content moderation policies on the platform. I just think he, this is the AI that he envisions. It's very open. It is very, you can do what you want with it. We are not going to put any rules of the road. If you look at what happened with open AI and Google, when they released their, uh,

image generation platforms a couple years ago. There was a lot of outcry about what was seen on that and the potential for deepfakes. They responded very quickly. Remember, Google pulled Gemini when it was made fun of for all those historically inaccurate images. They experienced a lot of shame and embarrassment, went back to the table, tried to fix what they were producing. OpenAI did all of these guardrails. They now have a watermark on an AI Gemini

generated image. So you know that ChachiBT produced it. Elon Musk does not seem like this is in his DNA. He doesn't want any of this. So he might be compelled to by the EU or the UK, which is investigating him under these new AI laws that have been rolled out. Or he might be sued by these

you know, these companies whose IP Grok is stealing. I mean, you can make Minnie Mouse and Mickey Mouse, which are copyrighted characters that Disney is very litigious about. So if you could keep making Disney characters, Disney is going to come after you. So I don't think what we're seeing from Grok

Now will be the case in a week to two weeks now. But it is kind of crazy to see these images proliferate on platforms. It seems like it was in the early days of AI, the Wild West. Now we're seeing it back in 2024. Yeah, I know we already talked about the subway emergency meeting, but I'm sure the Disney lawyers had an emergency meeting yesterday as well. Up next is the Clippers new arena, the coolest one ever built.

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Okay, Kyle, trivia time. How many professionals are there on LinkedIn? I'm going to guess 30 million. Multiply that by 30 and you'd be close. LinkedIn has a billion members. And among that group, there are 130 million senior level executives and 10 million C-level executives. Jeez, LinkedIn must be an advertising goldmine for B2B marketers. It is.

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We've all been there. You're scrolling online. You see a random product that seems too good to be true. You check the website. You see glowing reviews everywhere, and so you decide to purchase. Two weeks later, you're out $140. The candle you thought you love does not, in fact, smell anything like beechwood. The wick is already broken off.

And you're realizing there's no way those online reviews were real. Well, I have some great news for you. The era of fake reviews is now over as the FTC Wednesday voted unanimously to ban marketers from using fake reviews and other misleading practices to promote products or services.

The FTC's rule also forbids companies from paying for reviews to falsely boost or denigrate a product, and it bans influencers from exaggerating their own influence by, say, buying bots that boost up their follower count, although I can confirm all 50 of my followers are real people. Neil, some interesting news coming out of the FTC, but is this accurate?

Actually enforceable. First of all, how much are you paying for a candle? $140? Look, the reviews got me. They said it was the best candle ever. You said the era of the fake review is over. I am certainly not bullish about it. This is the most whack-a-mole thing that you could ever think.

think of the FTC is trying to get ahead of it by basically getting the power of fines. So that's what it thinks will do the trick. It thinks that it can find these businesses that buy and sell fake reviews, $50,000 per fake review. And that will be enough of a disincentive to kind of root out this

billion dollar fake review industry. But a lot of critics of what the FTC is doing, and again, it has limited power to to do anything about this, is that it's not going after the platforms itself. So Amazon, Facebook, all these Yelp, all these review sites where these

things are posted have liability about what is posted on there due to this law called Section 230. The FTC is recognizing the limits of what that law allows them to do. So they can go after the platforms. They can go after the middlemen, the brokers of the fake review business, but they can't really go after the platforms itself. That will be largely left to self-policing. I think

I think Amazon and Google have every incentive to get rid of fake reviews because it's just damaging their own platform. But critics of this law say this doesn't really have so much teeth besides these financial penalties and that fake reviews are just going to continue going. And I just don't see any end to this. Yeah, I think you're right. I think unless you are going after platforms, it's probably not going to be a big change. But I do think they might have some incentive, as you said, to change platforms.

But I think the hope for the FTC is maybe this is a little chilling effect and people think twice about doing it. But again, at scale, there's so many influencers. There's so many fake like fake review websites, fake review bots that it's really hard to completely change this.

But maybe this will have a little bit of a chilling effect and people think twice. I mean, they say up to 40 percent of online reviews are fabricated or otherwise not genuine. And that could only be supercharged by AI and chat GPT because you could produce so many fake reviews, spam websites with just the click of a button. You don't actually have to write them anymore. So this economy is terrible.

absolutely bustling right now, the fake review economy. And I know the FCC is trying to get ahead of it, which they probably should, because this is a problem. I mean, sure, you buy a candle and you get a fake or you get a bad product. Maybe, OK, that's fine. You're out $140. But say you look at

at a review for a lawyer or a doctor. And those are fake reviews, which have been found to happen that those have like serious real world consequences. Yeah, very bigger, more large impacts if you have the wrong doctor than you get a wrong candle. I have been assured that our podcast reviews are real for this show. They absolutely are. We haven't paid anybody. Okay. You might remember that earlier this week, Starbucks swiped Chipotle CEO Brian Nickel to help dig itself out of a sales crisis.

And we just learned how they did it. By throwing live golf-level money at him, Nickel is being awarded a compensation plan of cash and stock that is potentially worth more than $110 million this year. It's one of the largest hiring packages in U.S. corporate history and four times larger than his predecessor, Laxman Narasimhan, received when he was hired just over a year ago. Nickel's package includes a $10 million cash bonus up front, $75 million in equity,

equity grants to make up for shares he had to give up from leaving Chipotle and other potential stock and bonus awards. If he hits performance targets, his first year pay package could be worth as much as $117 million, making him one of the highest paid execs, not just in the food industry, but anywhere in the business world.

And Starbucks thinks he's more than worth it. Nickel engineered an epic turnaround at Chipotle after coming on board in 2018. And he'll need to do the same at Starbucks, where sales have fallen for two straight quarters. Kyle, what do you make of this super max contract for someone who's been called the LeBron James, Lionel Messi,

and Tom Brady of the restaurant industry. I mean, that's some incredible comparisons. And I do feel like this guy has LeBron level power. It felt like the decision all over again. What's interesting when I hear about these large CEO pay packages and you're like, there's no way someone could be worth $100 million to your business. Well, after the announcement, shares in Starbucks soared 25%, which added $21.4 billion to their market cap. So they've already recouped

this money in a day, which is pretty remarkable. I think the interesting thing as you dig into the details of his package is he's also going to be allowed to work from home. Yeah, that's huge. He doesn't have to report to the Seattle office. So whatever this guy's business acumen is, it is incredible because he's getting some of the sweetest deals I've ever seen. Amazing negotiation. Maybe Medicare could learn a little bit from him. Yeah, that was a huge part of it. So he moved Chipotle from Colorado to Michigan.

uh, Newport beach, California. And then he started living in Newport beach and, and Seattle or Starbucks is based in Seattle. He does not have to move to Seattle. He can stay in his beach and he's the CEO of the company. I mean, if I'm the regular employee at Starbucks and I was told last year that I had to come into work three days a week. Meanwhile, the CEO gets to stay at his beachfront property in California, in Southern California. I'm thinking to myself, what is going on here? But that is an amazing perk that he, uh,

he negotiated. But, you know, he has the track record where he can really, you know, tell Starbucks what he wants. Because when he came into Chipotle in 2018, they were going through this severe crisis. There was E. coli in its ingredients. Hundreds of people had been sickened by eating at Chipotle. They had to go to the hospital. Chipotle was in an epic period

PR disaster. He comes in, rejuvenates the image, doubles Chipotle's revenue in five years, multiplied its profits by 7x and increased its stock price by 800% by the time he's leaving now. So he is...

Maybe a miracle worker in the restaurant industry, and he gets to do it all from Newport Beach, California. Yeah, Brian Nickell definitely got the bag, and maybe we have to go down to Newport Beach and see this guy ourselves. It seems there's two options for billionaires nowadays, Neil. You either get divorced or you vow to go to space, and sometimes you do both. But Steve Ballmer, the world's eighth richest person, has created a new path for billionaires.

Construction. That's right. The owner of the Los Angeles Clippers spent 10 years and $2 billion of his own money to create a brand new 18,000-seat stadium that the Clippers will play in. Now, it's clear from his days leading Microsoft that Ballmer is built different, but so is this stadium. The Intuit Dome has a hemispheres

Hemispheric structure designed to resemble the mesh of a stretch basketball net, phone chargers next to each seat's cup holder, wireless payments, cannons that fire shirts all the way up to the nosebleed seats, and a massive double-sided screen dubbed the Halo Board with 233 million diodes suspended from the arena roof.

Unfortunately, there's been no indication that the new arena will help the Clippers be any good this year. Yesterday was the grand opening with singer Bruno Mars, and the first basketball game is going to be played on October 26th when the Clippers host the Phoenix Suns.

this stadium is incredible to me, Neil. We got to take a road trip to see it. We have to. I mean, there's a few features that stood out to me. One is certainly the fact that the t-shirt cannons come from the top. So those of us in the nosebleed seats who, when we saw all these guys and the t-shirt cannons coming out, we're like,

all right, well, I'm not going to stand up and wave my arms because those can only go up to the first bowl. And I'm way up here. I'm never getting a t-shirt. Well, now Steve Ballmer has fixed that. So maybe one of the biggest stadium innovations in years. Another thing is because Ballmer is already, what, the ace richest person, he doesn't need to make a ton of money off of it. This is really a passion project.

So he's avoiding a lot of those corporate suites that so many stadiums and arenas come packed with now. I mean, look at Crypto.com Arena, which is where the Clippers play now, the Lakers play, formerly Staples Center. That has 180 corporate suites. Meanwhile, at Intuit Dome,

It just has 46. So Steve Ballmer wants to have that college basketball bowl feel not interrupted by sweets, which I think makes for an amazing, better fan experience. Meanwhile, he's doing away with those social spaces off the court that have become very popular in stadiums. So I went to Pecco Park in San Diego. It's basically a brew pub.

with a baseball field attached. Like, there are just multiple breweries about. You can mill about. You don't have to be in your seat. Steve Ballmer really wants to make this a very engaging experience where people are sitting in their seats, and that's why he has these phone chargers, like, linked up to every individual seat because he wants to make it feel like you are at home

watching the game and you don't have to go mill about in these social spaces. I don't know if that'll work because people do like hanging out and not necessarily watching every second of the game. But those are a few of the things that he's brought that's different for Intuit Dome. And one of the big things is this is no public financing. Right. Most stadiums are now financed, at least in part, by the public. He spent $2 billion of his own money. He's also investing a ton of money in this area, in this kind of like

dream park of stadiums and shopping and experiences, but also a hundred million to the city of Inglewood via a community benefits agreement, 80 million for affordable housing. Like it does seem like he really wants the Clippers to do well, but also the surrounding area. And he had a quote, I've been more blessed than I have any right to think about. And it seems like he is living every kid's dream of becoming a billionaire, buying a team and then making the stadium, a stadium where everyone wants to be. It's pretty cool. And the final note is that this place is,

has so many toilets. It has 1,160 toilets, one for every 27 people sitting in the upper deck, three times the industry average in NBA arenas. He really wants you to not have to wait in line, uh,

In the bathroom. And he's been talking this up for years. Like he did a press conference where he was like, toilets, toilets, toilets. I'm being obsessed with toilets. So if you go to Intuit Dome for a Clippers game or in four years for basketball at the Olympics, then you probably won't have to wait in line for the bathroom. Okay, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful late August Friday and an even better weekend. Kyle, that means you too. Get out of work early today. If you're not at a rooftop bar by 5 p.m., I swear to God.

Okay, if you want to send us any feedback or questions or comments for the podcast, send an email to morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Lonnie Fiscus is our technical director.

Billy Menino is on audio. My experience with hair and makeup has been so great. Highly recommend. Five stars. Run. Don't walk for your styling services. I was not paid to say that. Devin Emery is our chief content officer. Our show is a production of Morning Brew. Have a great weekend, y'all.