Political Ad Spend Hits $1B & Berkshire Hathaway Out on Apple?
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Good morning brew daily show i'm neal frame, and i've told me how today war in buffer sells even more apple stock that someone leaving out of .

the group chat that T, G, I, friday has a case of monday is the potato skin prevail officially filed for bankrupt. It's monday, november fourth. Let's ride.

Good morning and happy monday. We've got a huge week in store, but our sense of time has been thrown out of wac. Daylight saving time ended early sunday morning, giving most americans in extra hours of sleep, more darkness in the evenings and absolute chaos among the household appliances. My phone says one time, the oven clock says another. Know, tell you one of those people where if I don't fix the oven clock within twenty four hours of the time change, I just leave IT until much.

The problem is that it's not just your other anymore. All of our appliances are smart these days, so you're fridge, your coffee, make you, your microwave, toilet might all be saying different things at this point. Still, no one is as confused as your pets right now.

Dogs don't know about daylight savings. All they know is they're just walked at a different time. Cats can't read a clock.

So there are there are wondering where're getting fed later. Kids as well have no idea what's going on. So every time you are confused, just think about how the pets and the babies are feeling. Now a word from our new sponsor, but an old friend, yahoo finance neil, our purple prince is back back and .

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So, you know, election day tomorrow is going to decide the next president of the united states. But remember, it's not just about the White house. Americans are also going to be choosing which party controls the country's legislation of chAmbers, the senate and the house of representatives.

And because those chAmbers hold america's first strings, there are huge consequences for economic policy next year and beyond. The battle for congress was underscored on saturday when top house speaker mike Johnson so that his party would probably roll out the chips and science act, the by partition twenty two law that set aside fifty three billion dollars to companies producing semiconductors. Johnson quickly walk those comments back and said, the chips act is not on the agenda for repeal.

Important context. He made the remark in a new york district that is receiving a new one hundred billion dollar micron chip lamp because of the chips act. But the brief dust up highlights the stakes in this election for the next president's economic policy agenda will come on. Hair rs are done on trump face oppositional congress that wants their ability to implement their plans or a friendly .

co Operative one. And in recent decades, it's always been a friendly one that no incoming president has taken office without their party's control of the house and senate, George H. W.

Bush in one thousand nine hundred eighty nine, and that allow them to enact signature legislation early into their turns. For instance, former president trumps tax cuts in twenty seventeen and president biden s inflation reduction act in twenty twenty two. So tomorrows election that will determine whether there's a united force in power in D. C. Or a divided government and trillions of dollars on the line I know to be.

as you know, from schoolhouse rock, only congress can make changes to the U. S. Tax code.

And there will be changes coming next year. Control of congress is going to determine the fate of billions of dollars of tax cuts. Trumps tax cuts that you mentioned from twenty seventeen. A big chunk of them are going to expire.

Trump wants to extend them, and common Harris wants to, to keep them for middle class, raise taxes on the wealthy and CoOperations boost that corporate tax rate up from twenty one percent to twenty eight percent. They can do any of that without congress. Congress is the only body that can change the tax code.

There's a two point trillion dollar gap between their tax plans. So IT really depends on who which party controls congress, whether there is that united force. There's all democrats, are all republicans from the White house on down to to you make these particular tax tax code changes also for come here, she's a lot of economic policy ideas that coulda be done without congress from taking those subsidies for first time home buyers. That six thousand dollar tax credit for parents with newborns would not be what happened. You'd have to compromise if there were a republican senator.

Congress, interestingly enough though, trumps big signature economic proposal, which we have talked about a lot, is hired terf tros just across the board. Uh, coincidentally though, you don't need congressional approval to, uh, inactive ifs like that. So maybe trump doesn't need uh congress to be as favorable or as united as potentially come here is what going in because he is big thing that he's just been uh, spreading from the rooftops is that he wants to enact these across the board terrace, which do not need .

congressional val, so where does the race stand? Looks like the math is pretty tough. S for democrats in the city. They do currently control the senate. But just the way the math works out with how many seats there defending and the way the tide is turning IT looks like there is a probability that they will lose the at.

Meanwhile, the house is a complete toss of it's going to depend on those new york districts where whether getting the micron chips and other other benefit res are the chip tag as well as some swing districts, california. So that will be absolutely something close to watch. Let's get to some other election related headlines from the weekend.

First up, CEO seem to be sweating this election cycle more than any other, and it's showing up on conference calls this earning season. The word election has come up on one hundred earnings calls p five hundred companies between the september fifteen th and october thirty first, the most mentioning the word during the time frame back to two thousand and four. There's just so much uncertainty and board rooms across amErica .

yeah and one thing the market does like is uncertainty and predictability. So you're seeing all sorts of companies maybe trying to rain in hiring a bit, maybe putting pause on some of those major infrastructure, uh, or industrial projects because you just don't know what lies ahead. I mean, we little said there's a trillion two point three trillion dollar gap between the the tax plans of the two candidate. So that is why you're seeing I would also love to see a counter of mentions of the word uncertainty or unpredictable world or just general trepidation um that these ceos are are feeling right now and we're seeing IT manifest that just the amount of times that they are saying the word election and referencing election on these earnings calls next for all .

those election investors out there, which is something I haven't said before, the twenty twenty four election, you might have noticed a change on prediction markets. Harris has narrowed trumps lead significantly for the since last week on the platform calls trump sted sixty four percent odds of winning the White house. As of last night calls, he showed fifty two percent trump and forty eight percent Harris.

That change was filled in part by a shock pole and IOS. On saturday night, a highly regarded pollster named and cells showed Harris leading trump and I A. A potential outcomes at that.

No one, not even the campaigns had thought possible. The poll is certainly an outlier. Other poll showed trump with a big lead in the state, but IT definitely has cause some investors to switch up their calculus.

right? You can point to any number of things, maybe the followed after the medicine square garden rally and the porter rio joke this new iwa pole um for the reason why the prediction markets are converging. But maybe the most simple explanation is there is this huge delta between what the prediction markets showing and how close an election the polls are, are kind of forecasting at IT to be. So of course, there is maybe some potential money to be made by taking hairs at numbers that a lot of people thought were undervaluing their actual chances of winning the election. So could just be a delta, could just be maybe these Polly market whales, maybe these coy whales are just trying to catch out on their positions now um but IT is starting to look at just how quickly was over a matter of hours and days that they completely conversion now are showing A A tighter race than they have previously.

Here's another election step that might explain why you can't watch T. V. anymore. There has been nearly one billion dollars spent on political ads in the last week alone according to ad impact. To put that in perspective, IT took just seven days to spend. One tenth of the ten billion dollars in total has been spent on ads since the start of twenty three.

That is mine violin. I was thinking, how could you possibly spend a billion dolin? But then you start thinking a little bit.

I mean, coming here is rented out a day on the sphere to advertise our campaign, put a picture of her up on their coast, four hundred and fifty thousand dollars a day to advertise there. But also just think about all the channels and all the different places you can spend money to average this point. Youtube, facebook snaps time to become a really big channel as well.

Back in the day, there are like four major T, V networks in the us. You quite simply could not spend this much. Now IT is much easier to spend a billion dollars. Finally.

on election day, you're not only going to get to ocracoke are also gone to get some free stuff. Some brains are running promotions to help you vote and satisfy your sweet tooth. Crisp e cream, for instance, is giving out one free glaze dona per person, and you don't even need to show proof that you voted.

The ride share apps are also getting in on the election game. Both uber and lift are offering fifty percent off rides for people heading to their voting stations, plus another ten dollars off if you go through their official voting platform. Meanwhile, checking with your company if you getting P T O for voting tomorrow. According to the S H R M employee benefits survey, half of employers say they have offered pay time off to vote.

What is funny about these free bees that these comments are giving away is that it's technically illegal under federal election to provide vote. The law has seemingly kind of overlook these companies for a long time. Uh one of the ways that you can get around this is what Christmas cream is doing.

They're saying you don't even actually need to show proof of voting. We'll just take you at your world because. As federal asset, you cannot incentivize people to go out to the polls and vote.

So it's this weird legal grey area where probably you're not going to get in trouble for giving away a free donor. But technically by letter, the law IT is not legal to incentivize people to go out and vote. right? Let's move on.

A warn buffs primary physician covered your ears because he is not falling in your advice that an apple a day keeps the doctor away. Burger hathaway s third quarter earnings report reveal that buffer use this past quarter to once again trim his biggest positions, most notably in apple. He dumped about a quarter of his stake in the world's biggest company made at four quarters in a row that bircher was a seller of apple.

But what happens when you sell a stock, you get some cash. And boy, does burger health way have a lot of IT like smog from Laura? The rings of buffer t and co.

Are now sitting on a mind boggling three hundred and twenty five billion dollars in dry powder that is up from two hundred and seven seven billion dollars last quarter when you see the O G. Value investor being a net seller this many quarters in a row. Nice to make you a little nervous that he's rather sit in cash then go deal hunting. At current market valuations.

IT is a little perplexing. Bircher sold thirty six point one billion dollars worth of stocks last quarter, and they bought just one point five billion. So that's the eight straight quarter they've been a net seller of stock. And if you're an investor, you look to put your hathaway as your north star.

Uh, so that is a bit curious and especially whap off IT said about apple in may at version half way shelter meeting, he said apple was an even Better business than coca cola and american express, which he's often praised. Those are some of his long term holding. So what's going on, you know maybe a part of is just him being a smart and investor and taking some chips off of the table, like if were gamblers, where we're just keeping going because we're just amateurs here.

You know, if apple hits a certain Price and he says are well, know that is where I am comfortable with this being. I'm taking um i'm selling now. And there's also some thing to be said about the tax regime that we had talked about.

Buffs expects that capital gains taxes will be raised in the coming years, which takes you on your investment a earnings when you sell them. So he's selling them now he's mentioning this to try to get ahead of those tax changes. And then again, treasury yields are also quite high still.

And so he takes all this apple stock that that is sold, all this cash, pause them into tea bills. He's now the largest owner of t bills anywhere, even even more than the fed, and he's making a nice return on them. So he thinks it's maybe a safer bet than than the equity market.

Let's also dive into burtis Operating earnings because they did report just the third quarter earnings. They did fall from ten point seven billion dollars earlier to ten point one billion. Remember, this is kind of a nice cross section of the american economy because bircher is so big that owns things from insurance, the energy companies.

So it's actual businesses, which include M X sky code insurance companies did decline six percent, but a lot of IT was kind of chalked up to higher liabilities because if you're in the insurance business, what do we just go through a really act of hurray e season? So uh, hurray e hen um kind of impacted its earnings bottom line a little bit. So doesn't interesting time to be a good your health way though because just you're sitting on so much cash.

Clearly, he doesn't see any good deals out there to deploy IT warn buffer is famous. We're just saying i'm gonna chase a good deal of a bad company. I'm going to look for good companies. But I don't even know what you could buy these.

Well, I was looking, he got two hundred and twenty five billion dollars. Good bye prety much anything from netflix on down.

Let's get netflix folded into a virtuous for folio. This is feeling like the monday's of monday's right now for T. G I. Fridays after the chain for chapter eleven bankrupcy this weekend. IT is a story we have been telling four months now.

Casual dining chains have been feeling the heat this year as customers have increasingly opted for quicker and more cost effective alternative like to polite or shake shack. The chain is also found IT really hard to bounce back financially from the covered in nineteen pandemic. The bankrupcy actually only affects thirty nine restaurants controlled by T G I friday's parent company, not the rest of its fifty six independent franchise.

So if you're in need of friday's signature whisky glass burgers, you will still have options. T G I friday's first rose to prominence back in nineteen. Nineteen sixty five is one of the first singles bars in the us. But now the only relationships IT has to worry about are the one between itself and its creditors as IT tries to regain a foot holding in a restaurant market that is increasingly apathetic to its offerings.

really? Yes, I mean, but first let's roll the tape on T, J, fridays. Because T, G, I fridays, I was not familiar with your game.

You popular zed popularize a lot of the things that we take granted in in the casual restaurant industry. They say they take credit for a popular zing, the long island S. T, which is a huge at these kind of places.

They say it's bartenders trained tom cruise to make drinks in the nineteen eighty film cocktail. They say they populists the concept of happier. And they also influence office space because there's a restaurant in officers called charge keys, where everyone Jennifer anniston character where's flare and T, G, I fridays did popularize that concept as well. So IT IT is a remarkable institution that is permitted our culture and our restaurant culture in ways that I didn't know about before looking at T, J, fridays when they filed for bankrupcy. Ironically, uh.

unfortunately, their story is not unique when you look at the broader restaurant industry landscape right now, I am bo is closing down to eighty locations. Uh, file for chapter eleven bankrupcy in August. Red loves her. As we know, five bankrupcy in may exist in september.

So it's just part of this class of restaurants that people are just increasingly shunning right now is both too expensive to compete with kind of maybe the tripolis of the world, like maybe the food is, and as good as like the shake shacks of the world. So IT is just caught in this very messy middle, except for one company we talked about last week, which was chiles, who has just nailed ed, that that they thread the needle very well. They kind of created a, uh, a dish and appetizer dish that when viral on social media, you are struggling right now.

But as child shows, you are maybe one this away one social media and away from regaining your foot hold in the industry. So maybe T, G, I friday finds its fast. Well, maybe people develop a taste, whether potato skins again.

And we started singing the praises of once iconic institution up next. You know what time? IT is winners of the weekend time.

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Election day is tomorrow. Which means you might be feeling more stress than usual. That stress could be impacting your cortisol. A, K, A, the stress hormone .

IT earn that nickname because Spikes in cortisol levels trigger or fight or flight. But this hormone has a lot of other important functions, like regulating blood pressure and blood sugar, reducing information and controlling how your body breaks down.

Food court impacts basically all our systems. And that's why it's important to regulate cortisol levels.

And there's an easy way to make sure your cortisol levels state .

and check let's get check as a cortisol test that gives you insight into your levels. And our listening ers can get twenty five percent off with code daily. Twenty five just had you let's get check 点 com sash daily that's let's get check dot com flash daily。

Let's set to our winners of the weekend, the segment where, toby, I pick two things that really took advantage of that extra hour of sleep. I won the pressure bopp competition. So I get to go first.

And my winners are in video. And sure, when Williams, these are two companies you don't often hear group together, but both of them were selected to enter the exclusive club of thirty stocks in the dow Jones industrial average. Of course, two in means to out.

So intel and dwink, you're getting the boot. The move is not expected to send shock waves across these stocks because so few investment funds tracked the out Jones compared to the S M P five hundred. But this is surely symbolic, especially the swap of intel, ford and video.

Intel used to be the king of the chip makers dominating the market for semiconductors used in personal computers. The introduction of general AI has shaken up the packing order in videos. S advanced chips used to train A I systems are flying off the shelf while intel was caught flat footed.

NVIDIA stock has climbed one hundred and seventy percent this year to become the second most valuable company in the us. Intel is down almost forty percent this year and is now worth just three percent of invidia told me the downing says IT result s. Its index so that its thirty companies provide the most relevant picture of the U. S. economy. Do you think I did .

that with these moves? Yeah, that definitely. I mean, the door still stings, but IT is trying to think a little bit less first, he added amazon earlier this year. Now in videos s, so they are trying to catch up to a more tech forward. Look at the current economy.

That thing said, I do just want to shut out certain Williams a little bit, talk a lot about in video and that in shop, but showing Williams is a ninety billion dollar paint company. So I was looking into kind of how they revolution ze the paint game over the years. First, they were the first to introduce a little pain can, sounds like common sense, but at the time I was not first ready, mixed pain as well.

And then also they introduced the pain can shaker, which could mix up to five dowds of pain at the time. So customers could finally start purchasing more and have just a small paint. And so they are not just in paint. We've been a leader. They've been an innovator in the paint sector as well, got five thousand stores, so much bigger company than you might have expected, not quite as bigger and video, but I did just want to .

get shut out to William and three of shade on the doubt. So we should just explain why you don't think the doubt is A A good index, which I would say is very just accepted by a the broader investing community. And that's because IT is waited by share Price, not market cap.

So whatever company has the bigger share Price, for whatever reason, maybe you cut your don't do a stocks split, then you have a higher waiting in the doubt, then a much bigger company that just has a smaller share Price. So case in point in this is that sherwin Williams will now have the six largest waiting in the door. Jones, while in video, will have the second, twenty second largest wait.

And in video is a much bigger company than shawan, William. So I just wants to explain why the dow is second tear compared to the S. P. Five hundred is providing a picture of stocks.

What a ridiculous index. I know it's iconic, but there there's just no logic to that. My winter of the weekend is actually the second place finisher in the pro women's division of the new york city marathon. Helen o. Berry, despite getting edges in the final mile of the race of I turned heads for her foot wear.

SHE is a sponsored athlete of on running who outfitted her with a new spray on model called the cloud boom strike at less on utilizes a robot to literally spray a high tech material directly onto the middle of the shoe, lying on what the new york times described as a single semi translucent synthetic model film to create the shoes upper. The result is this back to the future looking book, like running shoe that has incredibly light, environmentally friendly and fast. IT is weird looking, but all berry has not won boston in a prototype, competed in them in the olympics and got in second at new york. So neil, all I am saying is that I would have run a Better time yesterday if I had been rocking some cloudings straight.

Perhaps very interesting hearing what exists at on are saying about the overall strategy and issues in particularly, you know, right now, they're competing against nike and a da. They are an upstart and they're growing like a weed, but are so a competing against these legacy sneaker makers.

And they say we have to innovate because nike has the air Jordans, edas has the zombies that they can always fall back on and sell a lot and just keep issuing them on is a really new company. They don't have those, you know, traditional styles. So they say we need to innovate.

And they're doing something that is truly innovate in the sneaker industry, which could lead to massive disruption. If I were to be commercially successful, and that is the huge question mark, whether this will be commercially adopted. But they have no choice but to innovate and release new styles and new methods that might catch on in order to chase the big guns.

And is not often that new shoe tech really comes around. I mean, air max from nike was one of them at the time where they injected preserve air into a the back of your your midsection and then the carbon five replay in racing shoes I was another big forward on is trying to really reduce the amount of inputs that go into making a running shoe. They say there are seventy five percent less impact on the environment.

The reason being is that typical running shoes have a hundred and fifty to two hundred components that go into making IT. The cloud room strike has only seven because the entire upper is made out of one single material. And I mean, i'm designing a pick ball story right now, and that one hundred fifty to two hundred number is not an exaggeration, are so many little pieces that go on, if we could just painted the Opera.

which lives a lot easier. Okay, but we feel like we're bearing the lead here. You're in the new york city marathon. Yeah not in these particular shoes and other shoes.

but how was the experience? IT was incredible. I just want to give a shat out to you all the listeners you guys showed out in force.

First I got to give set out to hunter from australia, who gave me a little pat on the back as he was running by me and said, can I get a shot up on the pot? So there you go and also just lots and lots of lets rise out there that I was kids, the blood pumping, although someone did yell meals numbers at me, I was like, that's right. I like, is, how is meal get in the check out right now? I also saw some beautiful more daily.

There is one really good one that was like, stock at the wheel was toby. And I was like, nice color. So if you made a sign like, please email us, please send IT to us. But truly just want to give a shout out to everyone who showed out new york you showed out in more blue daily listers you out as a well.

it's monday, so let's close out the show with some major events you need to know about for the week ahead. Can a focus on not election news since the fact other things happening in the world is the fourth time the charm for boeing to end its strike after rejecting the previous three offers. Thirty three thousand on strike machines will vote today on the company's latest offers to end a seven week walk out that is frozen, is manufacturing. The contracts in front of employees includes eight thirty eight percent paredes, a twelve dollar bonus for hourly workers and bigger contributions to retirement plans over four .

years under the most important vote. This we can think of anything that surpasses casting of ballots. But now this really is important.

I mean, costly, less american strike this century, eleven and a half billion dollars. Boing is desperate need to see what the eye pose. Insult, sir, is is saying about IT.

Speaking of things that have a large economic impact to the fed is meeting and is expected to cut rates on thursday, which would be the second time this year is lowered borrowing cost to preserve the job market. Remember, the rate cut in september was a media cut of fifty basis points. This one looks likely to be that traditional twenty five basis point cut. And with that in the bag, investors will be more focused on what wrong pal has in store for the rest of the year.

I miss when the days on this was the biggest news of the week. We are counting down the days. Still, the germ palace right cut announcement now is regulated to a week ahead blur. But yes, all side point towards another obit.

smaller cut. And just for a rule of them, if the job market continues to be strong, that means fewer rate cuts or less rate cuts. And then if the job market is showing signs of collapsing, that means more aggressive rate cuts.

Unfortunate the job market, the job report we had on friday, I was extremely confusing because of the two hurricanes, the boeing strike through the things out like so we don't really know it's going on with the jobs picture, still looks like the fed is going to cut by a quarter of a point. In sports, the road to march manner starts today. With the start of the mens and women's college basketball. Everyone will be looking up at seven foot nine Olivia ruo, a freshman at florida and the world's talus teenager.

The guy can dunk ball easier than I can breathe, but I can also sit in economy. So who is the real here?

And if you're not in the holiday spirit already, maria kerry has declared its time over the weekend, the singer posted a holiday height video with a clip from her song all I want for Christmas, you, which is celebrating its thirty of birthday this fall.

I mean, I love that SHE leads into IT. Most people would be like too proud to lean into IT, but SHE just every year comes out. IT is great. I'm ready for holiday season. This year been far too hot.

If you made as much money as sheet on the time, you would also lean into IT. That is all the time we have thanks so much for spending your morning with us. We do appreciate and have a wonderful start to the week for any questions, comments or feedback.

Sending email to morning brew daily at morning blue dot com. And as maria cai said, it's time to start thinking of holiday gifts and what. Gift is there than sharing morning brew daily with your friends and family, more creative than socks to be. Who should our listener's a gift .

morning bradac with? Today I want you to share the part with someone who think I know you have IT after seeing everyone lay IT out there, but you need a training body to send this pod to that future training partner.

Let's roll the credits. Emily million is our executive producer. Ramu is our producer.

A ligia m is social producer. You channel og o is our technical director. Billiam ino is on audio. Hair makeup is ready for that crispy tomorrow. Devin emmy is our chief content officer and our shows a production of morning.

Very sure that I knew. Let's run IT back tomorrow.