cover of episode La La Land: Galileo’s Warning (Classic)

La La Land: Galileo’s Warning (Classic)

2023/3/10
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Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

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Tim Harford: 本期节目探讨了奥斯卡颁奖典礼上发生的错误,以及类似事件,揭示了一个重要的教训:为了避免灾难而增加的额外措施,往往会增加灾难发生的可能性。节目中分析了奥斯卡颁奖典礼上的错误、三里岛核事故和2008年金融危机,指出这些事件的共同原因是沟通混乱和安全系统设计缺陷。通过伽利略的故事和查尔斯·佩罗的“正常事故理论”,解释了为什么旨在确保安全的措施有时反而会带来危险。 Tim Harford 认为,我们倾向于责怪操作员,但事故的发生往往源于系统设计缺陷,而非个人失误。奥斯卡颁奖典礼上的错误并非个体失误,而是系统设计缺陷导致的。我们需要改进系统,而非仅仅责备个人。奥斯卡颁奖典礼上的错误虽然看起来微不足道,但它蕴含着深刻的教训,类似的错误在其他领域可能导致灾难性后果。 节目中还分析了奥斯卡颁奖典礼上错误的卡片设计、三里岛核电站控制面板设计混乱以及2008年金融危机中信用违约掉期(CDS)的风险,指出这些都是导致事故发生的因素。 最后,节目探讨了奥斯卡颁奖典礼为避免再次发生类似错误而制定的六步计划,并质疑该计划是否会适得其反。 Charles Perrault: 佩罗的“正常事故理论”解释了为什么某些系统容易发生灾难性故障。紧密耦合和复杂性是导致系统容易发生灾难性故障的两个主要因素。 Galileo Galilei: 伽利略的故事阐述了“伽利略原理”:旨在确保安全的措施有时反而会带来危险。

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The chapter details the infamous Oscar night mix-up where Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway mistakenly announced La La Land as the Best Picture winner instead of Moonlight, due to a wrong envelope being handed over by an accountant.

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With the 95th Academy Awards just around the corner, Tim Harford looks back at a basic lesson. Galileo tried to teach us that adding more and more layers to a system intended to avert disaster often makes catastrophe all the more likely. This principle has been ignored in nuclear power plants, financial markets and at the Oscars... all resulting in chaos. For a full list of sources for this episode, go to timharford.com). Listener questions Tim is taking your questions. Do you have any queries about one of the stories we've covered? Are you curious about how we make the show?  Send in your questions, however big or small, and Tim will do his best to answer them in a special Q&A episode. You can email your question to [email protected]) or leave a voice note at 914-984-7650. That's a US number, so please be aware that if you're calling from outside the US international rates will apply.

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