cover of episode DANGER: Rocks Ahead! (Classic)

DANGER: Rocks Ahead! (Classic)

2024/1/5
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Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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Malcolm Gladwell
以深入浅出的写作风格和对社会科学的探究而闻名的加拿大作家、记者和播客主持人。
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马尔科姆·格拉德威尔讲述了1967年托里峡谷号超级油轮触礁沉没的故事，这起事故并非由于恶劣天气或机械故障，而是船长帕斯特伦戈·鲁吉亚蒂在时间压力下，受计划延续偏差（plan-continuation bias）和get-there-itis的影响，未能及时改变航向，最终导致船舶撞上锡利群岛附近的七石礁。格拉德威尔分析了鲁吉亚蒂船长在决策过程中面临的压力、时间限制以及信息不足等因素，并指出计划延续偏差是导致事故发生的关键原因。他认为，人们在面临紧急情况时，往往会固执地坚持原有计划，即使有迹象表明该计划存在风险，也难以及时改变。托里峡谷号沉船事件不仅造成了巨大的环境灾难，也深刻地揭示了人类在决策过程中容易犯的错误，以及计划延续偏差对个人和社会的影响。

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The episode explores the disastrous course of the Torrey Canyon, a supertanker that inexplicably steered towards a deadly reef, despite clear warnings and navigational tools at its disposal.

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Torrey Canyon was one of the biggest and best ships in the world - but its captain and crew still needlessly steered it towards a deadly reef known as the Seven Stones. This course seemed like madness, but the type of thinking that resulted in this risky maneuver is something we're all prone to...

We have a treasure chest of Cautionary Tales to bring you in 2024, but first we need to take a short rest. This week we're taking you all the way back to the start, with a classic episode from our Cautionary Tales vault.

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