Trump Wins — ft. Anthony Scaramucci
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today's number of fifteen point nine billion dollars, that's the estimate record amount spent on this U. S. federal. I could give a shit, you fuck. And is what the fuck, what the actual fuck.

Welcome to process markets. Today, we're speaking with Anthony sara amoc, the founder and managing partner of skype, dge capital. But first here with the news is property analyst ed elson is about to encourage the largest tax increase in history and Young people with runaway deficits in an inflationary fiscal policy. And most likely will knock up some Young lady who will have to Carry the baby to term and be imposed, shed and lose any sense of empathy for special interest groups and move to you. Can costa regards to know i'd says something to cheer me up bad.

I have much to check you up this morning, Scott um but i'll just get straight into the headlines here. So dont trump has on the election and he has how the markets reacted. Bitcoin hit record high, more than seventy five thousand dollars on election night, trump media stocks sold around thirty percent free market the next day and test the jumped fifty percent.

Treasury yields rose, pointing towards a larger deficit and higher inflation under trump second term, the dollar, its highest lever in a year as his proposed tariff s would imply a stronger currency. Meanwhile, the chinese man and the euro fell shortly and the max can pay, so dropped to a two year low. The S M, P five hundred and nasdaq opens two percent higher wednesday morning. So your reactions to this election result.

So I got a call last night, I got attacks from a guy is one of the british guys have met recently the C I. O of millennium, and he runs, I think they're about a seventy billion dollar alternative investment fund, manages all these different interesting model. They manage hundreds of little trading teams to try and find dislocation in the market and tons of data contract.

And I mean, they're just these these are serious people. And he was the first person to text me. Have a lot of people could not quote in the field, and everyone of my friends in the field was early, that, oh, things are looking really good.

We're out in the field knocking on doors, always see as blue and goodbye and they talk me and the thinking IT was going to be a the size of Victory. He was the first first minute text. May said it's over trumps one.

How did you know it's pretty fairly early in the evening? It's like like the ten year and the ten year was moving up because of a inflationary fears with a trump back in office. But he was the first person who actually came out of the none of us wanted to say that we're all texting and what's happen each other.

Nobody wanted to say what we were all feeling. I went on the amazon program. I side with brand Williams and just wake up really late, really early last night.

I you get just when they started doing all this great data around OK, this is what this is what biden got in this county in twenty, twenty and my, oh, she's not well, as I did. And twenty, twenty, that's not good. And by the way, this is what trump got in this in twenty sixteen and is got much more now. I mean, this every every signal was its going tramp and also the Polly market and all these other guys that looked ridiculous to me because we said I thought was a coin flip on the data.

The pulsate said I was a coin flip and they said, no, it's not it's to do one ah by fairly early in the evening, Polly market was at ninety ten, nine ten to one when it's still when you had every person on m mbs and CNN and on amazon saying, well, we can still pull IT off SHE just needs to get her number slight but they're still a path of Victory for her. They're still a visible path of Victory. And IT was just IT was striking to me.

The other the market reaction around crypto stocks. Um I guess that's not surprising. Uh, I believe the market with the market is sort of saying is that IT will see some inflation in the short round of fears of inflation. We will see some stimulus in terms of tax cuts um and we will see obviously this favor favor crypto.

Um but also what I think the market is saying is that it'll be a slit government that you and I might not be a my understanding us as we sit today, the senate, the White house and possibly the house, Michael, all republican. But the my my belief is the market is basically saying that the president, whose in the White house is less important, then people think, I think that would be very interesting to see what happens. I've been thinking about Donald trump s stock because I wonder if, amy, basically, I became a vessel of predictions machine.

Now that is won. It's no longer a predictions machine. But I wonder if if the stock ends up going and this is confirmation bias because I sure did IT. But I wonder if there is up going way down because now it's like it's no longer prediction machine.

What is IT? And unless he can figure out away to give his buddies to go in and prop IT up so he can sell, or he can figure out a way to get fatal government contracts to a social media platform, which I think would be real domestics, I just want what's going to happen. I'm kind of fascinated by this, this weird thing that we haven't seen before. What you thought said.

I think you're right. This is certainly an argument in favor of the predictive power of markets. And this was something that we've been debating for a long time.

I don't think that puts a nail in the coffin per say that polls are wrong or that they are significantly worse than markets. But IT certainly is an argument in favor of them. My actions to the election itself.

So everything i've been reading and listening to has been what the democrats got wrong. My feeling is that over the next few months, what this is, all we're going to be hearing about this can be monday morning quarterbacking, what the democratic party should have done, how they would ve lost the script. It's all a bit boring and played out in my view, and it's a little bit of a waste of time.

So the only thing I do want to to talk about is just how i'm feeling right now. You know, we try to keep politics out of this show, but markets are driven by emotion. And I think how i'm just feeling is maybe worth something.

If anything, what i'm feeling right now is basically just a mixture of sadness and depression. Two main reasons. One is, and this is more than the depression I was, I was just excited to have a woman president.

I just think it's time I find IT very strange that we've never had one. I'm a little bit tired of the fact that we've never had one, and that was clear to me this morning, is that this country still isn't ready for that. We still think that a woman couldn't handle the job on.

The most depressing part to me is the fact that forty six percent of women voted them. And we can get into why that is with Anthony y. The second reason, and this is sort of my sadness, and also my depression.

So i'm twenty five years old. I was sixteen years old when trump first announced his candidacy. By the time his term is up, I will be twenty nine years old, which means that by twenty twenty eight, I will have spent more than half of my life thinking about this person every single day.

And the reality is, I just don't want to think about this guy anymore. I'm just tired of thinking about IT and i'm tired of other people thinking about I am tired of him showing up in every single conversation I have with friends and with family. And the reality is that there are just so many other things in life that are so much more important and so much more interesting, and that deserves so much more attention than Donald trump.

This is my sadness right now. A my goal for the next four years, and with this podcast, is to think about him as little as possible. We're going to think about him today. We're going to talk about him without, to me, we sort of have to. It's important, this day is important.

But my goal is to basically just live my own life, to have my own ideas, to be fascinated by different stories, create my own story, and to not let the incessant noise of this man's existence distract me from what actually matters in life. So that's what i'm focused on, on my promise to our listeners today, is that I will make sure that this does not become the Donald trump show. This isn't going na be complaining about Donald m talking about his emotions.

What is what he's talking about, know, talking about other people's opinions of him. We're onna try to be objective about what's gona happen over the next four years and we're not going to let Donald trump distract us from what actually matters. We're onna focus on bringing you stories that are important and that are objective about the reality.

So I understand how you feel. Um my advice would be the following. You I think you're write about getting on with your life, focus on your career, focus on your relationship with your girlfriend, your relationship with your parents, building economic security, being great to what you do, working out and just create, you know, have a practice of being focused on what's important.

Also, what helped me a lot, and I wish I understood this when I was Younger. Life isn't about what happens to you, about how you respond to what happens to you. This is going to be probably a rough for years or even longer based on supreme court appointments.

If you're a poor woman of color who gets pregnant, I mean, there's just not getting around that. They're going to be a big losers here. But I still think on the whole, you live in a country that is got more opportunity and and a great likelihood you have the agency to write the ship if you think that needs writing than anywhere in the world.

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Welcome back here is a conversation with Anthony scam moc, the founder and managing partner of sky bridge capital. He also briefly served as the White house director of communications for the trump administration. Anthony, thank you so much for joining us again on property markets.

a real under B I. And thank you guys, including me again.

So I had all these questions prepared about last night whether there would be a trumper of Harris presidency and all these things I wanted to get into, but i'm suddenly feeling like it's all a little pointless anyway. So I just wanted start with, just how are you feeling this morning? You've been covering this for a while.

You've worked with trump. You've been vocal against trump over the past. So is how you feeling.

I listen. I think you have to take an approach to this that um the way an athlete take an approach, I I feel like the new york, the anche after they were defeated by the la dodgers. Let's just go over the math here because that this is very important.

AmErica wanted downal trump to return to the White house, given the two choices of vice president hours or Donald trump. AmErica wanted trump did something that they said he couldn't do. And Frankly, I said he couldn't do.

And so just like in sports, when things are not going your way and you get chance, you have to own IT and you have to wish the other side well. He is the american president now, uh, over the president elect, I should say. And so I congratulated him last night.

I was an incredibly well executed to campaign. He won the popular vote and he closed margins, typically blue states. I just give you one example up here in new york, uh, he gained votes.

They gained congressional seats. And in the jersey, he was inside of five points, which was almost the margin of err era and a voting poll. So so to me, how am I feeling right now? I'm going to pretend otherwise. I'm sad for the country. I'm happy for my portfolio, obviously stock market participant or a big coin over like me of very well in the last twenty four hours.

But I just know that the reti c that was used in this campaign, if IT is executed in the White house and the dehumanization rhetoric to non White immigrants, uh, uh, if that somehow executed in the White house and these deportations actually happened the way they are talking about h, that would be a hammer blow to our culture. That would be a hammer blow to our society. IT would impair our tax revenues.

IT would reduce our GDP. And and i'll tell you guys something. I'd like to ask you both of your reactions to this because when I looked at the cross as as I looked at the numbers, I have someone that's worked for my family for twenty years.

He said to me, well, you know, I voted for him. I said, I know you did. Why do you vote for M, I voted for him because i'm from equal.

I'm here legally. I'm in the club. okay? He's going to protect me from the people that are illegal. Is did you see that? So he picked up at american votes.

He picked up african american votes because he was suggesting to those people that they were part of his club. Now they are part of his club until they are not. And that sa precious nature of Donald trump.

But IT was masterful guys he was master for in terms of what the narrative was. I just don't like IT, uh, because i'm from a family of immigrants are my grandparents were told to go back, go back to the country you originally game from when they got there here. There was heavy discrimination. Uh, and while our group has assimilated ted, there are other groups that we would like to see a simulate in this great, great country.

The other group you didn't mention, there are women. Forty six percent of women voted for him. They came out, and even greater numbers. I'd love to just get your reaction to women's response to Donald trump in this election.

Well, now I go. Because I went through the exit last night. I broadcast life for eight hours into the ad kingdom, our, our, our, our, our goal hanging or podcast last night at one point eight million viewers throughout the the streaming session and going over that exit polling.

The women are saying they do not like the culture war. The women are saying they don't want, uh, men or people that have outdoor plumbing fixtures res that declare themselves as women and to go play sports against their daughters or their sisters. That's what the women are saying.

The women are saying a that they don't like the um you know if I use the word IT explodes people's head on the left what i'm going to use IT you they don't like the work. They don't like the whole culture. You know, professor galloway talks about this. There's a, there's a, there's a head on White males right now, as the s professor points out, the Younger White males have a proclivity towards higher suicide rates. They feel left out of the society, the women that want to support them.

Or voting for Donald d trump and there was a great mean yesterday ah where there was a little daughter and said, you know, daddy, who are you voting for and he said, no, i'm voting for you honey, meaning her reproductive rights and reproductive freedoms but the inverse actually happened IT was mommy mommy who are you voting for and mommy was looking over at our son and say, you know what, i'm voting for you okay. That's a very interesting thing that happened. I don't think the left anticipated that, but that happened. And they they have to have a reckoning and a reconciliation related to that .

bears that I really appreciate taking the time to figure us today after I can't imagine how many people on their their media platforms right now. I I see kind of one of two things here. This is either as somewhat of a uh uh, a Mandate he's been given that is okay.

The norm since world war are no longer the norms. A different view on immigration, foreign policy, economic policy, the rights of special interest groups are not, we are, we are not about change or about disruption. And this is not an abortion. He's been voted back in through a democratic process is IT that amErica has is decided for a seminal shift in the way we approach constitutional democracy in all the things are previously mentioned? Or was that the Harris campaign, for a variety of reasons, just ran such a terrible campaign you thought .

think it's an intersection of all things? I just was gona point out the reason why you guys are so popular and you have media personalities now is that this is the age of the podcast. And that campaign was the podcast camping.

You know, there was a twitter campaign, guys in two thousand, and or maybe there is a facebook campaign in two thousand and eight, a twitter campaign in twelve, twitter campaign in sixteen. But this, the podcast campaign, the old media is no longer trusted by this country. The suits are no longer trusted.

No, scotland are all up to remember a book that was written by David habs nam called the powers that big. IT was written the seventies about the the great David snow, who created R. C.

A. And became nbc, and bill pale and how cbs became the gold standard in the news. And this was very centralized, and they were somewhat coordinated with the government.

And whether people like this or not, they were all tied into the military, know the the U. S. Benefit from millions and millions of men and women being in the american military, taking OS the constitution, working together from different parts of the country.

And then after the war, there was a sort of attitude in a process that was followed. That part of amErica is now completely over the vietnam bones sport spur the firm is the, is the process now. And he's brought that culture with them.

So it's a rules breaking. It's a norm breaking. It's, you know, my my wife gonna made of me SHE all listen to this pog guess but he called me this morning and said, well, you know, i've got two sons with you anthy.

We have four sons in total. But mazzini was on the ballot. Racism was on that ballot, and a lot of people held their note.

I'm not saying the people that voted for donal trump or mazdas or races, but they did accept his racism and they did accept his Masoni. okay. And so you have to look at that.

Now if they look at that in the mirror and say, has amErica really changed? And Scott, I believe, and I believe IT has, I believe that the man in the gray fano suit, I believe, the system that was put in place after the second world war to help the world to raise living standards, I believe amErica is now looking at all that and saying, hey, what is in IT for me uh and to quote mask, okay and this is a book that's got and you guys are pRobing, familiar with, it's the sovereign visual IT was written by riz, mg and David in in nineteen nineteen ninety nine. IT was a second book of theirs.

Peter till replaced IT and rode introduction to IT. And it's about what's in IT for you, uh, and it's A D collection of the society. And I will tell you guys, if you're a student of history, when we d collect, I supposed to can join and collect, create a collective, very bad things have happened in our system.

Very, very bad things. At the end of the second world war, the devastation of that war, the europeans wanted to unify. They created the european economic union.

The memories of all this stuff is over. now. There's a bloc of rhetoric, there's a rise of nationalism, their separatist movements everywhere around the world.

And last but not least, but because of the fragmentation and social media are abbassi are in the process with us now and they're trying to rio us up. They are trying to create lots of tribal ism. Uh, and Donald truck was the perfect medium for that. And so you know, he he wanted a, and he wanted in a way that you didn't expect god, I have to confess, I did not expect, okay, but he did win IT.

And so if you're an entrepreneur listening to this, a political entrepreneur listening to this, you don't like the direction that this is going and think like an entrepreneur, do you get the one hundred and four million people that didn't vote last night, I didn't vote in this process that are eligible to vote? How do you get them involved? How do you go from zero to one with them? In terms of messaging, narration, h explanation of history, what works from a social gc perspective for people, there is what doesn't work, and it'll be interesting to see.

But if if trump executes his plan, if you don't mind, I just want to go over the plan. The plan is to deport fifteen million people. First of all, sort of not possible.

We don't have the infrastructure for IT. But let's say he deports one point eight million people, which is the prison population of this country. It's an eighty eight billion dollar load for the taxpayer.

okay? You then have to collect these people in orbit vehicles, and then you have to concentrate them in camps, or otherwise known as concentration games, because you. You can't immediately deport them.

You gonna find a way station for them to go to because there is a process on the other side to get them of the country. This will blow up GDP. It'll crush the economy.

Mosque is out saying, if we're going to execute these plans is going to be three or four ugly, dark economic years. I I don't think the americans fully understand what they've signed up for should trump try to execute that plan. He's got good parts to that congress with him.

And so it's a dangerous time for people that have grown up in amErica where there were certain norms that we accepted with each other. And I start to love each other or even like each other. But we're here together in this great experiment, and there's aspirational opportunity for each of us if we stick together.

These people are saying something very, very different. It's us verses them. If you're with me, i've got yet protected.

Just do me a favor. Don't write an endorsement against my avs ary. You can keep your for my avatar. You can keep your government contracts. I'm a very transactional guy. How am I gonna transact with people that benefits me as supposed to what is in the best interest of the idea's and vision .

of a future america. So I agree with everything you just said in terms of what would happen if his policies, or how things would unfold in the markets if his policies implemented. But IT appears the markets, either a don't believe that would be the outcome or b don't believe this is gna happen. What do you think who do you think the biggest winners and losers are in terms of companies in the markets and asset classes in the term presidency?

Well, oil and gas industry is a big winner, I believe. Obviously, big coin is a big winner. Scott, you know, I try to tell these guys on the democratic side, you're making the mistake in terms of the way you're regulating and thinking about the world of digital assets.

You know share tt Brown h for those who don't know who is, he was a senior person in the senate. He was the chair of the senate banking committee. Okay, he was ousted a uh by a uh car entrepreneur that was given over forty million dollars from the crypt to ala byan community to house showered ground because of is antiquated thinking about crop to and so trump will definitely put people in position.

He's talking about a strategic reserve for bitcoin using bitcoin. I think other countries would have to do that. That would be very positive for cyp to assets in general.

Uh, I think banks do well in this environment because you mention the ten you are going up, although have more floats got, they'll make more money. okay? And uh, he's gonna pick and choose, you know he's gona pick and choose.

So uh, all garage that are with him, their companies are fine. Amazon, as I got to get broken up space as is gonna flourish under downward mp. Uh test, let will flourish under downward mp. And and so the market looks at all the stuff like, yeah this works for me.

I'm long the market lets go uh but there are things that could create complications for the market if he decides to pull out of the ukraine, uh and he he decides to partisan the ukraine and give IT to his friend vitamin putin, uh, and he replaces a democratic regime in ukraine with a soviet style puppet there. I think that's gonna have monumental consequences in eastern europe. Uh, there is a reason, uh, podcast listeners pay attention.

There's a reason why finland and sweden, seventy four years of nato, they don't want to be part of nato in its seventy five years. They're like, hey guys, we need to be part of nato OK vata in putin is flexing. He has a small economy, is roughly the size of texas.

But he's got a heavy nationalistic military interest on expansion. And if he starts to do that, IT will reach havoc in the market. So when I say for now, sure.

I understand why people are bullish deregulation and and Donald trump is just kidding, Scott. I've been traveling. The contrary, as you know, I do a lot of public speaking.

I did three live shows here in the united states, and I did seven of them in the U. K. I asked the following questions, thousands of people.

Does trump mean what he says? Is he going to do what he says? Or is truck just saying that the bloc S C is nonsense? He's not going to follow through on IT.

It's eighty, univerSally eighty, twenty that he does not mean what he says OK. And this is the most interesting time in the world where we have a presidential candidate that is promising to do something. His supporters have voted for him.

And in the exit polling, they say, yeah, he doesn't really mean what he says. He's not going to do that. The market does not believe is gone to do that.

But I submit to you guys, if he does fifteen percent of what he says, he's going to damage this system that has made so many people prosperous. Are we need in need of tweak the system? We certainly are.

Are we need of making the system Better, no question, but to bring down the system and to change the world order, okay, at a time like this, where five point seven billion people live under forms of autocracy around the world, and I think, I think is very dangerous for market. You know, you know, people take for granted free shipping lanes sponsored by the U. S.

Navy until they no longer exist, guys. And then of a sudden, the cost of goods and services and importation exportation go through the roof when people scratching their end. I thought I was there.

One of the best things is i've ever seen in, in, in politics, guys, is a black word that held up by trump supporters or tea party people. Get your government hands off my medical of my medicare, and then you go to the person excuse, that's a government program. Trump understand something about his supporters that everyone needs to understand.

There are social conservatives. They want a job in your bedroom. They want to oversee what you're doing in your bedroom.

And if you're a woman, they certainly to have some control over your U S. Okay, but they are fiscally liberal. They want the government services.

They want the, uh the the transfer payments from the government and trump understands that Better than anybody, which is why he had an eight trillion dollar print in four years of deficit spending I think and just people understand that that's George washington to George w. Bush, seven trillion double j truck, four years, eight trillion. And what do we do in on the spending guys? We're gonna ramp up the spending.

We're ready to rock and roll with the spending. And yeah, I guess people think it's gonna be OK and maybe you'll be right and I will be wrong and certainly gone to be right in the short term, but arent going to be right in the long term. And that that's the thing that this stuff usually ends in tears when you're moving towards individualism, when you're moving towards a more transactional, less holistic society.

Yeah, it's just going to ask about the deficit because I think that's one of the main reasons we've seen so many voters basically look pastas character because in their view, they think that he's gonna reduce wasteful spending. You know, he's going to bring in elan. He's going to create the department of government efficiency.

He's onna got all of this wasteful spending that we see in government, which is another way of saying he is going to reduce the federal deficit. If you look back at his pause presidency, the evidence was know what he won't um so could you speak more to why you believe that? Sounds like you believe pretty category, he is going to run up the deficit even more. Can you just take us through why you believe that?

Remember, the last retorted was I ve gonna baLance the budget twenty sixteen i'm running. I going to baLance the budget in four years. okay.

So you know what the great thing about trump, he is the human scope. You look through the winds, you see what you want to see. If you don't like what you see, you turn the appear slightly.

And a new pattern forms is so okay, like that Better. So trump says so many different things. If you are supporting them, you pick the things that he says that you like.

And if you're dead out, see, you pick the things that he doesn't like. But he says so many things. You know, we at one point he saying the very fine people on both sides of a nazi rally the very next day, he denounced IT.

There's one group saying, well, he said this. The other group saying, he said that. So you have to understand he's not going to be able to do that.

Number one, you want musk is not going to work for the government. He's not selling space ex. He's not selling tesla to install himself into the government.

Number two, you cannot cut two trillion dollars from the federal government. I'm sure there's overspending. I'm sure there's access in the government, but you can't go into a massive austerity program to that magnitude.

And you want to get to the military.

Ah you can take sixty eight percent of the GDP, okay, and not put IT to work. You crush the economy. And when you crush the economy, you can throw people out of work and you're gonna create rebellious detention and society.

Trump is not a stupid person. He's not going to do that. okay? Moreover, you don't want him to do that. You know, the the bridge will tell you theyve had fourteen years of austerity. IT doesn't work.

What works is entrepreneurship, aspirational laboratories around the society, grow your economy when work is your at the end of world war two, you one hundred and twenty five percent dead to GDP. And though you're not paying IT back, which you're growing the GDP so exponentially that the dead is actually manageable by your taxpayers and manageable by the system that you set up. And so we we have to focus more on that.

And i'll tell you guys, whether you like IT or not, you need population influx. You don't need, you don't need d population in this country. We need more workers.

We need more people in the country. The great irony of what Donald trump is suggesting, i'm going to deport ten million people. Oh, by the way, do you know if you naturalized those people, they're not all voting blue.

Like glam's says many, these people are traditional families and roman catholics that have elements of conservatism in their personalities. Guess what happens to these people? guide.

They vote. Like every other american. Some of them gonna vote red. Some of them are gonna vote blue.

You know, you can't make, they make these very simplistic, blanket statements about large groups of people to engender zoo phobia and to trigger people to turn on the neighbor. Okay, I don't want to turn on my neighbor. okay? I want my neighbor to have a nice south.

I want my neighbors. To do well, I want my nights or feel good about themselves. Okay, that's the spirit of amErica cup. That's the amErica that we grew up and that's the amErica that we should figure out a way to expand upon. I don't want to, hey, you know it's us versus were here you're not let's lower the gate now. Okay, that's not the amErica that got stored, uh, a couple hundred years ago, and that's not the amErica that we grew up in.

You mention you don't think elon will be part of this government. I was going to ask that question ah what why do you think he won't be?

Well, he's got too many. He's got too many conflicts of interest, I think. I mean, listen, if we're gona break every norm and break every rule and we're going to let lilla must be a government official and run a multiple billion dollar, trillion ish dollar companies, okay, then you know that's that's gonna be in its own way a path towards a very weird oligarch in this country, okay? I I don't think that isn't .

not exactly the plan. That sounds exactly what where we head in a look.

If that's the plan, there will be people, people like me are probably get throwing out of the country for exercising my free speech rights and announce that and explaining to people how dangerous that is. Because when you move towards strong man and leadership and you move towards autocratic thinking, a lot of people at the top get very, very rich, but the rest of the people get devastated.

Because Chris m, uh and and the ideas of quid pro quote exchanges come in to play, you know, imagine a Jimmy quarter set up that way, or George harbor Walker bush, or a bill clinton. Okay, like or dislike any of the politicians I just mentioned, ron reagan, George w. bush.

They all looked at the country and said, I came here to serve the country and i'm i'm here to work inside the norms of the system, because the system has been grounded with experimental over hundred years of hundreds of years. IT may not be perfect, IT may not work perfectly, but IT works for the most amount of people. There is a reason why this is the most prosperous nation in the world.

There is a reason why we have great elector capital in this country and great innovation with a very flat, decentralized government. Rich, more people don't get IT right on everything. I don't want bill, act man, Operating on my brain.

I know he's worth more money than me, and I know as a result of that, he may think he's smarter than me, and he may think he's smarter than everybody on planned at earth, but he also may nap, okay, scow away, maybe smarter than him in so many different ways. And you to ed. And so my point is we got to take a step back and recognize that the system that we put in place there is wisdom in crowds.

What did link can say about the american people? okay. You say they're not smart. I say that they have a good nose. They can smell a rotting and dever in their basement.

Now the question is, why do they make this decision last night? And I think the democrats have to sit around and ask themselves that question. You know, on the exit polling guys last night, number two was threats to democracy.

Sixty percent of the people thought that the democrats were a threat at the democracy. Democracy trumps the threats of democracy, elan said. There are the threats of the democracy used as forty four billion dollar megahed to tell the people that, okay.

And now maybe neither of a more a friend threat to democracy. I don't know OK. I want, I want the framing of that constitution, the three separate articles. And I want that system to be refined and improved, certainly. But I don't want you to be crushed. I know that that is a good framework for us to become prosperous, more prosperous and more deeply prosperous, or more men and women in the society can partake in the wealth and success of the united states.

Will we write back? But first, we want to remind you that we have even more election coverage on our raging moderate podcast go hosted with jasa itar law. From fox, you can find raging moderate whatever you get your podcast.

We're back with property .

markets and you are in the administration. You know people around him who from kind of the old school gets brought back in and what is who are some new people who probably bring and who are going to be the old and the new power players and how will the overall complection change of the people of his team?

So you you amazed by this got after, uh, the interaction on the seventh. Many people are now stalled from seventh of january two thousand and twenty one. Those very people are on stage with him last night.

Remember jd vans, call them the american hitler and this is vice president. So so you you'll be impressed with the way people were pure red for a Donald trump. So gary coon, I believe we will be back.

Uh, I think Jerry cushier may have a role, although I might not be inside the White house, could apply to be some advisory role, ambassadorial role to the middle east, something that will help him with these businesses. Um you'll have a Howard letton. I don't know if you know Howard sky, please, the C O of kerhet general, these ahead of the transition team.

Linda mic man, Linda did a great job with the small business administration. Uh, I suspect i'll be the commerce secretary. Uh, i'm not sure who will be the treasury secretary, but I was guessing IT would be sky percent. He's a hetch one manager that formally work for George sorrow, a very, very smart, very capable guy.

Jammy diamond and a chance.

So I don't know, I don't know truth in list jme or not. I don't know if Jimmy would want the job. You know, there was thoughts about Jamie wanted that job in 10， but trump h felt compelled to give IT to Steve munchin because munchin was with him.

And and I thought Stephen did a very good jab eh treasury, uh, but there will be a collection of all the people and new people. Truck is very good. And what I call the doll trump carousel. L you come in, you're waving to the crowd. You're with trump.

He ended the mega had you're smiling and as you go by and he punches the knife in your back, uh and then the next guy shows up and he does the same thing in that guy and then the next guy shows up. He has been last four and always finding opportunistically people that are willing to help him. He's was sending out tweets in eighteen and nineteen and elan musk, uh, should have been on his knees barking like a dog in the overall office.

Paying to. And now they're both budget and they are they're covering around together. Okay, uh, the all of those relations as will end in tears. J. D. Vance right now is flying high.

I'm gonna be the sitting vice president, uh, but the Price you paid is you put your entire head inside the mouth of a lion, okay, and he's going to end up just like my pants. Dd, hopefully you guys all invite me on, uh, and i'll say, hey, I gave their heads up. Vance's career is ruined.

It's finished. He doesn't know IT. He sees the themselves as a future president, see themselves as the successor of mega. But that doesn't work like that with trump because any type of attention you're getting that's taking away from trump, you go into the Donald trump wood chipper just the way IT works. And so and you know you don't believe me, uh, you know you guys are an analysts and research people just go over the legions of people that he has done this to. There is a reason why forty five of us who work for them were trying the warn people of what is his capabilities are one of the .

things that was quite unique about this election was that was the first one where we could bet on this legally. Um you we've seen all these new prediction markets. We've seen cali and Polly market predicted.

I love to just get your overall view on these markets. Has there been a positive effect from these markets and negative effect? And do you think that they should remain legal?

So I I think they should remain legal. I think there is a free market. I think ultimately, those prediction markets were correct.

You have to accept that maybe some of them were thinly traded like Polly market, and they could have been unduly influenced. But I don't think IT was too dramatic. I would just like them more regulated.

I would like people to basically be able to bed in those work. Remember the original standing of the S. C.

C. I wasn't a political instrument of power for a party or a politician. What roof that wanted.

And there's a great book on this, uh, Susana and rez rote, a book called taming the street. And IT is a history of the early part of the S. C.

C. A. What we were trying to do is to make the capital market safer in the country. IT was very a political IT was what is the right policy to make IT safer a versus what's the wrong policy? IT wasn't left or right.

Gary gan ciller, the worst c chairman in the history, the ninety year history, the c him and eliza th wren came in there and weapon zed, the S. C, C. okay.

And so I would like to go back to an a political standard for that instrument. Now somebody like jay clinton, I don't know you guys recognized that name. H he was trumps S C C, uh, chairman.

I helped him get that job. And I was on the transition committee's a former uh, Sullivan cromwell well partner h he's raised the sand. He's going going to go back to work for Donald shop. He's not a political person. He's more of a policy servant.

Uh, and I I would like to have more people like that in the government and in in that case and I would like those those markets should fall under the jurisdiction and just make sure that those markets are as wide and deeper as possible so that they can be unduly manipulated. But I would certainly want those markets to exist. Yeah.

I just have the founder of of calls on this part cast, and he revealed to me that they regulate themselves at the moment. That's how IT works, which are believable.

Yeah, because they can they can get any clarity from our regulators that our regulatory authorities right now, I want to regulate through enforcement. So the reason why the markets are twelve hundred points is the markets looking around and saying, okay, if trump to reappoints j clayton, uh, you'll go to something that isn't political.

It'll be more about the rigorous transparency necessary uh, what do capital markets want? They want rigger and transparency and they want a reduction of fraud ers. okay?

They want, they want help uncovering fraudsters, and they want rigorous transparency and disclosure. They don't want gary gansler and Elizabeth war and picking winners and losers. They don't want gang's lor telling you, well, ripples of security.

He loses the court case and then he triples down on ripple being a security or they don't want they don't want ripple having the same rough properties as a theory. Um one is a commodity and is able to get a cash etf and the other ones in a forever lawsuit. The c no sensible person would look at the way they're arbitrarily and a preciously administering those laws and say that's good for capital markets are good for the country is interesting because I like I think .

a lot of people would argue that we're onna see that under this administration that we're going to have the guy and charged the king with the divine rise of king basically picking the winters and loser, I eat his friends. So if you want to, uh, if you're test the stock holiday, are probably pretty happy right now. I think a trump presidency likely just means that you get fast tracked um to returns. Will your responsible to that?

I want to be as baLance as as possible. I think that is the case. That is the danger that there's an oligarchic fund at the top and and and revenues come off for the federal government is that and feeds the ole guards that are closed to trump and he figures out a way to line his own pocket.

We've seen that story, that tale as is all this time. But there are good parts of the right as well where there are things that they see in margus that they know that they want to make them efficient as opposed to web ism. You know, you know, again, tax policy could be used as social instrument, or tax policy could be used as a way to gain revenge.

That could be a user fee for services that a government is rendering, you know. And and I think I think we have to get back to that if it's okay. We're paying X, Y, Z in taxes here in new york, a result of which these are the services that we would like to receive from our government.

And let's have a little bit of accountability. And where they are not, those services are being rendered. So so looked the problem with all this. There's good parts of the right and there's good parts of the left. How do you make the mosaic work in the most authentic way for the american people away? Galloway, i'm just let you know I don't drink, but if I did drink, this entire bar by me would have been consumed last night .

about four o do you know who? Just to quick digress. Do you know dan Harris? Ten percent happier.

Yes, yeah, ten percent happier.

I read this book, yeah, is a lovely guy. And I had him, do we had him on the party yesterday. And i've been more stressed about this.

And I have been about most things a while. And I can figure out if the this neocles, or I have insight that this is somehow more seminal or more important than usual. Anyway.

last night. So you're a student of human beings, you know, this could be very dangerous .

or you're being generous. But so i'd tried he as the think of the star breathing math at where you breathing through your nose, and then take double the time for XL. I tried that last night, in fact, that if that didn't do anything.

And so I moved to, I moved to peroni and zani s or as I call IT panics and IT worked. I started dancing the eighties music, and actually pretty like they called, they called organ for for camera. And that told amazing, even though that was not that amazing.

Anyway, my sense of them is a good long term leadership is doing hard things in the faced versy to pay off long term or prevent a tragedy. The comments, my sense, is that not sure that he wants to be loved and he has the biggest credit card in the world in the form of our printing press and are the the full faith in credibility of the U. S.

Treasury and that I would bet fairly soon he's going to announce a series of tax cuts when i'm uh do you think that's likely? I'm also just a follow question. Donald truck media um I wanted to bet on this market and I went in the Polly market and went in all these things and you can't bet from the U.

K. And there's all this shit. I just like I got overwhelmed and i'm not doing that. So I went out and I shorted dolen trb stock. Of course, last night, spite fifty percent and now it's back to kind of war IT was some curious one tax cut and to what do you think happens to Donald trump media?

Oh, okay. So this is, you know, this is a very cynical of me. Okay, so I really just tell you what I think cynically, uh, he'll try to push through the attacks, cut, uh, the cbo will tell him that this will create mass of massive deficit spending.

Uh, he won't be able to find anything that is onna cut in the government to offset the tax cut, the reduction and revenues. Uh, and that will cause look at cause a sugar high for people. Uh, you know we're very powerful country where a dollar genomic world and so we can extend our debt longer because we're paying IT back at our own currency, which we in fact can create uh will access that longer.

But if the brick countries, other countries start the nominating things in hard access and gold and things like that, you know I think we're going to at some point we're onna have a reckoning there. I do see attacks are coming and I do see well, street liking that they're visioning. A lot of that will drop to the bottom line.

Uh, the second with D, J, T, there's nothing there. He got six hundred thousand users are rarely on the on the platform. He is the platform.

Uh, but there would be no reason why these anta millionaire. Again, let me rephrase that. There be no reason why they sent a billionaire. So we do have sent a billion airs in our society.

Couldn't feed that stock to enrich downal trump, right? So that stock and have a three, four billion dollar market cap and down trump files of registration with full disclosure that he's selling into that market cap. And those those billion airs are effectively enriching him OK recognizing their not getting anything of any material value in that company.

But IT is IT is a very specious, an unusual way to avoid campaign finance issues and to avoid enriching a candidate or a political figure. And so you will talk about norm boston or rule breaking. These guys are launching mean coins two or three weeks before the election.

You know, now that mean coin did fizzle. They didn't get a lot of demand for that mean boom because IT was prime of facial. What IT was was just a ridiculous point scheme. But he's the sitting president. He's one of the most powerful people in the world.

I can tell you there are a heads of state right now all over the world that are trying to figure out what their personal relationship is gonna where their governments going to be. Their relation is gonna with trumps government. And what does IT mean for their protection? If you're in australia and you're looking at north to china, do you want amErica as your friend? Do you want down's from help? Is down's from gonna disengage from you?

You know how many americans know that we have a marine battle on in Darwin, the northern most city of australia? How many people know that we cut a large submarine deal with them to help protect the waters around australia? A Donald drop is telling people that he wants isolationism.

He wants to reduce our footprint around the world. You know, there's lots of things that are going on right now. And one thing we know about him, he's transactional and he's easily influenced. So so you tell me how D, J, T. Can end up being a home run for dual trap and his family, but not for the consistent usual reasons of a startup having a successful IPO and having great earning, great fundamentals and great growth.

Is there any tail risk here? Do you have any predictions that s that you think might happen or will likely happen over the next tra month of the media is missing right now?

So I I was thinking about the very same thing last night. I've come up with two things that are are still risks are not on, you know how long shell used to say there are known, unknown, and there are unknown, unknown. These are known which don't know the direction that can go in.

But I have to tell you, the ukrainian issue is a very, very big issue. Moreover, okay, the minute he ends the war in ukraine, or potentially particia that country, thus he then flip and help us, friend, by wiping out all these sanctions. And then what does that mean for putin? How is that empower putin to think about taking other countries? You know that moldova election the other night, that woman won that election.

She's a prodest cracking person. SHE was up against a putin puppet, and he was up against all the social media machinery that was engender by by putin. Uh, if mod is a small country, but if IT falls, IT falls, right, you know, and other sudden the domino start falling.

You know, Russell understood this Better than any modern statement. Uh, he he read in german. You know, he was, he lived in germany for several years as a student, as a Young man.

And so he listened to hit their speeches in the original german. He read german. He read german newspapers. And he was like, this is gonna cause us a very big problem. People are not going to see this is their problem because it's over there.

But unfortunately, whether we like IT or not, we're all conjoined and this is going to cause us a problem. And so, you know, think about what he did. Land lease is sort of the same thing that we're doing for the ukrainians right now through the biden administration.

Imagine Donald trump in the second war war. Would he be practicing land lease with ghost len and winston churchill? I I think we know the answer to that itself evident, but these are the things that i'm worried about.

The us. Has been predictable and reliable as a partner. Have we made policy mistakes? certainly.

Should we've gone into iraq and afghanistan? Perhaps not. Certainly not. But we're predictable as a partner. You need our help or at your door step. When we stop going to the doorstep, what ends up happening is unnatural alliances form um you know, people need each other in a way that you didn't think I know I only you with this laughter and you should really think about this because, uh, our elders understood this martial, understood this eyes an hour.

Uh, there was a paragraph written in the leviathan three hundred and fifty years ago by Thomas hubs and the paragraph read and I am paraphrasing IT, but the paragraph said that we are on our greatest level of global peace and global prosperity if there's one hedge, amon, if there's one superpower through its military might that's able to suppress the internecine tribal conflicts around the world. And he illustrated that that would have been pack romona, that would have been packs porton. ia.

IT eventually became packs america. And his and the point, and our elders understood this, that we had a big military footprint and we are benevolent force for good in rising global living standards. Oh, that would be very, very good for america. And the world would think very well of us if we're onna retract that uh and amErica becomes an unreliable partner in the idea of western liberal democracies and the idea of the alliance. Uh, I think that has lots of negative consequences down the line, lots of derivation negative consequences that you may not see today, uh, but you may see tomorrow in terms of the way amErica and americans are treated around the world.

Just one final question for me, Anthony. And again, thank you for your time. It's always just such a treat, have you? And I love how you draw from history and text realized that is really IT IT puts things into perspective. Um is there anything that you are optimistic about? Is there anything over the next four years that you think trump could do a good job?

Yes, you know there's lots of size to trust personality. You know there are people inside his campaign that is said to me, you know he was sore about losing in two thousand and twenty. He was adamant about trying to regain the presidency.

Of course, he is the only the second person to do that grow over cleveland that uh and and there's a thought that he seventy eight years old, he's gonna to play a lot of golf and he he's a status guy. He may put the gene diamonds in place and Larry things and these superstar executives to run the government and he may hide tail out of washington a lot and be an absence t sort of landlord of the White house. Okay, so there is a thought that, that could happen.

But up against that thought is got a lot of hard right people that have velcro themselves to him in the last two years, and they want to systematically change things about our culture, a women's reproductive rights acta, and systematically change things about the way we progress our government. And so I think those people are dangerous. I've spoken out against those people, and Frankly, I will continue to try to do that and try to be a voice of reason in our society.

You know, I, I, I like you guys. What makes you guys so good at what you do is you love people. You know, scotland.

I've spent some personal time together. He loves his students. He loves people. He wants to see american men, uh, get a restoration of their self, a steam and they're confidence, uh, and people can feel that from him. I love people leave you with this thought.

My grandmother always said this to us, the best among us choose not to judge human beings frailties. okay? And what we have to do is sometimes recognized that we have shortcomings rather than denigrate in the human eyes.

Let's give each other a little bit of a break. And by the way, that also means ourselves. When we do things that are stupid, you know, don't be so hard on ourselves. Let's not judge human ferrel ty so horsey um and you know listen you know that's where I want to be uh and that's the type of leadership i'd like in the country.

H this was really rough, very negative rhetoric that came out of trump's mouth during this campaign and the execute on IT well well we're onna have some sad times here but if he doesn't um you know maybe things we'll be fine and then we will get to the next election and will have a real good debate of the democrats will have to reform themselves. Ls, for sure. I think that the republic is to a triple down on mag. So democrats, i'll have to reform themselves and present something very different to the american people. Then what they have been doing recently.

anthy scare much, is the founder and managing partner of sky bridge capital, a global alternative investment firm. He previously served as the White house reaction of communications for eleven days of the tramping. By the way, Anthony purpose sly puts that into his bio.

You can find him on two podcast. One is called, the rest is politics U. S.

And the other is called open bug antha. You're easily one of our favorite guests. Really appreciate you coming on and such a an intense and busy day.

Well, I appreciate I guys appreciate the opportunity. As you know.

this observer is produced by clear la and engineer by Benjamin Spencer, socially produce results, voice muvver's, our research lead, just a gn as our research service drew buras technical and Catherine Dylan is our executive producer. Thank you for listen to property markets from the vox media podcast network. If you like what you heard, give us a follow join us very fresh take on markets on monday.

I have not changed out of myth yam amas. I've had issa ics and three bears.