cover of episode Third Quarter 2024 Review — ft. Aswath Damodaran

Third Quarter 2024 Review — ft. Aswath Damodaran

2024/10/31
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A
Aswath Damodaran
纽约大学斯特恩商学院金融教育凯什纳家族椅位教授,专注于估值、企业金融和投资管理。
E
Ed
参与金融播客,分析和讨论金融市场趋势和变化。
S
Scott
通过积极的储蓄和房地产投资,实现早期退休并成为财务独立运动的领袖。
Topics
Scott: 本期节目讨论了加州州长纽森增加电影制作税收激励的提案、波音公司的股票出售、Robinhood新的选举合约以及特朗普媒体公司股票的波动性。他还对一些“下跌的天使”公司(包括耐克、星巴克、雅诗兰黛、波音和英特尔)的未来发展方向进行了分析,并分享了他对接班计划、特斯拉最新财报以及即将到来的大选的看法。 Ed: 他对加州增加电影制作税收激励措施的提案表示赞同,认为这项措施对加州经济有益,并且是财政中性的。但他对政府补贴一个可能走向衰落的行业表示担忧。 Aswath Damodaran: 他分析了耐克、星巴克、雅诗兰黛、波音和英特尔的现状和挑战,并对这些公司的未来发展方向提出了自己的看法。他还分享了他对接班计划的理念,并对特斯拉最新财报和即将到来的大选发表了自己的看法。他认为,市场对大选结果的反应相对温和,这表明市场参与者可能并不相信候选人的经济计划会带来重大变化。他还表示,他不喜欢将政治与投资混为一谈,因为这会影响投资决策的客观性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did California Governor Gavin Newsom propose increasing tax incentives for movie production?

To match other global production hubs and stimulate economic activity in LA.

Why did Boeing sell common stock and convertible shares?

To boost liquidity and prevent a credit rating downgrade to junk status.

Why did Robinhood launch betting contracts for the presidential election?

To capitalize on the gambling aspect of trading and attract users.

Why did shares of Donald Trump's media company rise significantly?

Due to prediction markets favoring Trump's win in the presidential election.

Why is Nike facing challenges despite its strong brand?

Brand names need nurturing, and market segments can age and fade.

Why is Intel struggling despite its historical dominance?

Overreaching in trying to compete with TSMC and NVIDIA without clear success.

Why is Boeing in serious trouble despite being in a duopoly?

Reputation damage from safety issues and loss of market trust.

Why is Disney facing difficulties in its transition of top management?

Board's failure to prepare a succession plan and the entertainment business's disruption.

Why did Tesla's stock price jump after recent earnings?

Relief rally due to meeting lowered expectations and focus on higher-margin products.

Why is Aswath Damodaran skeptical about Uber acquiring Expedia?

Big acquisitions often fail to deliver returns and can negatively impact stock price.

Chapters
Nike, una vez un titán de la industria, se enfrenta a la disminución de la cuota de mercado y al envejecimiento de la base de clientes. La conversación explora si el nuevo CEO, Elliot Hill, puede revitalizar la marca centrándose en los consumidores más jóvenes y adaptándose a las cambiantes tendencias del mercado. También se aborda la cuestión más amplia de cómo las marcas icónicas pueden mantener su relevancia en un panorama en rápida evolución.
  • El éxito de Nike está estrechamente vinculado a su asociación con Michael Jordan.
  • El valor de la marca necesita ser nutrido y mantenido constantemente.
  • Las marcas pueden volverse menos valiosas a medida que su mercado objetivo envejece.
  • Los cambios en la industria pueden hacer que los puntos fuertes de la marca se conviertan en pasivos.
  • Centrarse en un nuevo mercado no debe hacerse a expensas de descuidar el mercado principal.

Shownotes Transcript

Scott and Ed open the show by discussing Governor Newsom’s proposal to increase tax incentives for movie production in California, Boeing’s stock sale, Robinhood’s new election contracts, and the volatility in Trump Media’s stock. Then Aswath Damodaran returns to the show to map out the road ahead for some of the “fallen angels,” including Nike, Starbucks, Estée Lauder, Boeing and Intel. He discusses his philosophy on succession planning, shares his thoughts on Tesla’s most recent earnings, and breaks down how he’s thinking about the upcoming election as an investor. 

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