9/24/24: US Floods Troops To Middle East, Ryan Unloads On IDF Al Jazeera Raid, Josh Shapiro Signs Ukraine Bombs
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed we do. A lot of news that is breaking this morning, including chaos in the Middle East. You've got hundreds killed and thousands more injured by Israel in Lebanon and the U.S. sending additional troops to the region. So we're going to start the show with that. We also don't want to lose sight of what is going on in Ukraine. There are some important developments there, including Zelensky here in the U.S. with Josh Shapiro. Basically campaigning against him. Bombs. It's

Not great. Not great at all. Meanwhile, turning to domestic politics here, Nebraska made an extremely consequential decision with regard to the Electoral College. It could actually be the thing that the election hinges on, so we'll break all of that down. We also are going to take a look

at Trump doing far fewer rallies this time than in previous campaigns, what his campaign is saying about that. And also appearing to do a lot fewer fundraisers and certainly raising a lot less money than Kamala Harris is. So what does it mean, if anything? We'll dig into that. He's also got a very interesting new policy on capping credit card interest rates.

It's actually very similar to a proposal that Bernie Sanders and AOC had floated before. Interesting critics. Interesting also people who have previously been melting down about Kamala Harris floating price controls, quote unquote, now silent when it comes to trust. Anyway, there's a lot that's interesting here that we'll get into. We also have a journalist who is coming on to discuss why opium production in Afghanistan fell off a freaking cliff. Really? After

after the US pulled out. So we saw this chart come across both our radars and we're like, huh, question mark.

And it turns out Seth Harf is actually literally writing a book on this topic. Yeah, that's right. Seth's been on the show before. Seth is awesome. We're excited to talk to him. Before we get to that, thank you to all of our premium subscribers. A bunch of people took advantage yesterday, like Crystal said. We're going to start with some foreign policy today, but we have a lot of exclusive election content that we're dropping behind the scenes only for our premium subs. So if you want to be able to see that, you can go ahead and sign up at BreakingPoints.com.

But yeah, we've got a crazy situation going on in Lebanon. We're on the brink of a full-blown regional war, which people assured us was not going to happen. Yeah, that's right. I mean, this is a catastrophic failure of the Biden administration policy, which has explicitly stated from the beginning this was the outcome they wanted to avoid. And yet here we are, I can put this up

On the screen, we have video of new bombings and strikes inside of southern Lebanon. Massive attack leading to roughly 500 deaths, thousands injured. I'll give you the latest count there. The Lebanese officials saying that the majority of those were unarmed civilians, scores of children and women who were killed in this attack.

And if we could go ahead and pull up this next tear sheet, you know, if we get to the U.S. consequences here, immediate consequences, Pentagon is planning to send more U.S. troops to the Middle East as, quote, tensions rise. Of course, very passive language there.

Major General Patrick Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary, declined to say exactly how many troops were deploying, citing operational security. Worth noting, you already have about 40,000 American troops stationed in this region on bases in Iraq, Syria, and in the Persian Gulf Coast.

countries. USS Abraham Lincoln is in the Gulf of Oman. A second aircraft carrier, the USS Harry Truman, left Norfolk, Virginia on Monday for the Mediterranean. Sagar, they say it's part of regular scheduled deployment, but my understanding is that it left in advance. Yes, it left early ahead of its deployment schedule. So we know at a minimum, an aircraft carrier is like

roughly 6,000 people. So at a minimum, we've got 6,000 people going. I mean, we've got 40,000 troops in the region, more people who are headed there. We've got people all over Iraq and in Syria who are now potentially in danger. The aircraft carriers now possibly might have to get involved. I mean, I don't think we can stress just how dangerous this entire situation is

Now for us, the Biden administration, you know what's so ironic? Joe Biden will take the stage today at the United States General Assembly, or the UN General Assembly, to declare the results of his foreign policy. How could we have such a better contrast of not only a failure, his signature foreign policy objective of the last year was to secure a ceasefire. They no longer even think that that's possible. Second now was to prevent the explosion of full-blown nuclear war, or full-blown regional war, hopefully not,

It's September 24th, we're weeks away from October 7th anniversary and it just seems even more likely that that's the result. 500 people killed roughly in Lebanon in a single day, the biggest clash since 2006. All of the reading and research that I've done so far, it is terrifying what this war would look like and it would 100%, I wanna be like,

very clear. The US establishment is 100% committed. If this thing goes full on past 2006 levels, which current indications, if it does, that's what it would look like. We're in. There's no getting around it. We have 40,000 people there. Our troops are going to be in trouble. The global economy, it will be a nightmare considering what's been happening with Yemen and a lot of the Houthis. It will be that times 10. Iran involvement. I mean, we've got, this is a real catastrophic-

situation. This is probably the most dangerous the world has been since what happened in Ukraine. And if you see already, America is addicted to Middle Eastern war. We cannot extricate ourselves. And Israel is the primary culprit that is involved here. What is the justification for this attack? Is that

some Hezbollah guys launch the missiles? No, it's just continue this to further Bibi's political ambitions. But really, they seem to believe that they're in an endgame. Like, they're like, we need to take out all of our enemies all at the same time. It's

very 2003, they are repeating the exact same problems that happened to the United States and it's overconfidence going into that war. So they've quote unquote accomplished whatever they wanted to in Gaza. And now with Lebanon, they're like, yeah, let's do this too. And you know, they have no idea what's coming from them.

for them. They really do. And their generals, their commanders, they know because they're the ones who are sounding the alarm behind the scenes with Gallant and others. But the political leadership is dedicated. They're like, they want this war. The key line is now escalation through de-escalation, which America is such a coward. The only pushback that we have seen from the Biden administration so far is nowhere have we seen escalation through de-escalation work. But it's a back

quote attributed to some senior Pentagon official. Why should I care? The president of the United States has the possibility to put a stop to this and he just won't do it. That's right. I'm like, you know, and now, you know what? Our people are going to get killed again for all of this. If Israel and Lebanon wanted to handle it, fine. But you know what? There's no way in the current U.S. political establishment that that's a possibility. We will bear the brunt. We will bear the cost. I have no doubt about it.

I was reading all the New York Times coverage of, they have a whole article that's like, oh, how we got here. Which conveniently does not mention a single time the fact that the core reason why Hezbollah has been firing missiles into Israel is because of Israel's onslaught in Gaza. And then if you had a ceasefire, in fact, when you did have a temporary ceasefire, those rocket launches stopped.

The Biden administration has now given up on a ceasefire because they can't just like, you know, sort of like hand-ring their way into talking BB into actually committing to any sort of a ceasefire. They've just given up rather than doing the very obvious thing of saying, okay, you want to fight your wars? Good luck to you. You're not going to do it with our weapons. That simple. And

there was recent polling that came out, that is a popular position. So on the American strategic interest, the choice is clear. On the moral imperative, the choice is exceptionally clear. And even on the political imperative, the choice is clear. No secret that Bibi would rather have Trump in the White House. No accident that this comes, you know, heading into October. Nice little Bibi Netanyahu, the most predictable October surprise of all time.

And yet the Biden administration, I mean, these are either the dumbest people on the planet or the most dishonest people on the planet. Because how many times have we seen the background quotes? Oh, we're upset about this and we're telling them that we disagree with the strategy, blah, blah, blah. At a certain point, you just go, I don't believe you because you can't possibly be so stupid.

as to think that these little background quotes and little tough, you know, on the sidelines conversations are having any impact whatsoever. You mentioned 2006. This is already the deadliest day in Lebanon since 2006. And I know it gets tiresome to say these sorts of things, but I want you to imagine if Hezbollah had successfully pulled off these level of attacks in Israel and killed a majority civilians, including scores of women and children,

I want you to imagine what the news coverage would be like. I want you to imagine how the moral equation would be laid out here versus how it's described in mainstream publications at this point. Let's put A2B up on the screen. We've got the, this is the latest death toll as best as we know. Lebanon says that 492 people have been killed in Israeli strikes.

including 35 children. The Lebanese people are panicked. They are fleeing to Beirut, hoping that that would be safe. They're fleeing north into the mountains, hoping that that would be safe. But the truth of the matter is very hard to say where it's actually safe. And I'm gonna get in a moment. Very eerie echoes from Bibi Netanyahu and other officials.

sounding exactly like they sounded before the genocidal onslaught into Gaza, sounding very similar notes. And so this, as we come up on the one-year anniversary of October 7th, is terrifying, chilling, and deeply disturbing. And as I said, just the manifest failure of the Biden administration here could not possibly be more clear.

You'll recall last week we covered that Israel had launched what I think is accurately, and Leon Panetta, former CIA director, agrees with me, described as a terrorist attack where they managed to blow up the pagers of Hezbollah operatives and walkie-talkies.

They did so indiscriminately. You know, you had children killed in that attack as well. People were in busy markets on streets and public places around their family, et cetera, et cetera. And it's interesting to note that former CIA director Leon Panetta agrees with them, with us, that that was in fact terrorism and is deeply disturbed by what it could mean for the future of warfare. Let's take a listen to that. The ability to be able to

a place in explosive, in technology that is very prevalent these days, and turn it into a war of terror, really, a war of terror. This is something new. Is it terrorism? I don't think there's any question that it's a form of terrorism. Former Defense Secretary and former Director of the CIA Leon Panetta wasted no words in describing what he fears may be the result of letting this particular genie out of the box.

This has gone right into the supply chain, right into the supply chain. And when you have terror going into the supply chain, it makes people ask the question, what the hell is next? It sounds like you're genuinely worried. I am. I am. This is a tactic that has repercussions. And we really don't know what those repercussions are going to be.

So he says, Sagar, I don't think there's any question that this is a form of terrorism. What did you make of him making those comments? I think this is somebody who was once in the room that pulled the trigger on Osama bin Laden and that we should take – look.

I always find it difficult, former national security officials and all that. I think most of the time they're full of it. I don't really like to listen to them. So I'm not saying that these people have a ton of credibility, but I would take his fear seriously in that this was the type of person who probably had to green light or say no to the very similar types of operations and obviously also sat across the table from Mossad and many of the other international intelligence agencies.

and probably himself had to grapple with these very same questions. So his fear about the supply chain is warranted. And this is what I want to bring back to, which right now, you know, this isn't getting a ton of attention because this whole thing is weird. But according to the FBI, there's been some weird Iranian hack of the Trump campaign that lasted up until last week. I mean, listen, is Iran like a joke economy? Yeah. But

But clearly they have some cybersecurity-like sophistication. And if we get into a full-blown war in Lebanon or with Iran or whatever against Hezbollah, what, you think we're not going to be subject to things like this? One of our major presidential campaigns has been hacked apparently for months. And so that's the same. And then what are they going to do? They'll be like, well, your client state, Israel, blew up a bunch of our people. So if we do the same to you, don't complain. What are we going to say? Yeah.

By the way, separate note, but it's crazy that journalists are not reporting on the contents of the leak of the hack. It is complete, I mean, the complete opposite of how they handled the Hillary 2016 situation. They came under, you know, criticism from liberals. Those liberals were wrong. The journalists were correct. If you have information that is newsworthy, it doesn't

matter if it's a sketchy or motivated source. Of course, you take that into account. But if the information is accurate and valid, you report it, period, end of story. But that's another matter for another day. But it is outrageous the totally different ways that they handled those two hacks. You know, going back to what I was saying about the deeply chilling echoes.

of the type of language that was used from the Israeli government before they began their complete annihilation of Gaza. And we showed you some of that yesterday, the new language that they're using with regard to Lebanon, which again, echoes what was said about Gaza. Here is Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu saying, I'm talking like some of the exact same phrases that he said in advance of their onslaught in Gaza. Let's take a listen to it. - I have a message for the people of Lebanon.

Israel's war is not with you. It's with Hezbollah. For too long, Hezbollah has been using you as human shields. It placed rockets in your living rooms and missiles in your garage. Those rockets and missiles are aimed directly at our cities, directly at our citizens. To defend our people against Hezbollah strikes, we must take out those weapons. Now, starting this morning, the IDF has warned you to get out of harm's way. I urge you.

Take this warning seriously. Don't let Hezbollah endanger your lives and the lives of your loved ones. Don't let Hezbollah endanger Lebanon. So very predictably using the same language about human shields.

to justify bombing and destroying any civilian target. And again, this sounds just like the case that they built up in Gaza and the case that they have used for time immemorial to justify assaults on civilian infrastructure. He says they placed rockets in your living rooms and missiles in your garage, i.e., we're going to blow up a bunch of houses and we're going to justify it as a legitimate military target. And that's how you already end up with what appears to be a high civilian death count.

Similarly, let's put this up on the screen. You have an Israeli minister. Tell me if this sounds familiar. Claiming Lebanon can't be defined as a state. Oh, really? Interesting. You also have them saying that the IDF should establish a buffer zone inside Afghanistan.

of Lebanon. Again, identical to the language with which they describe Gaza, which is, you know, part of Palestine and identical to, you know, their justification. They've said for a while now they're creating this buffer zone in Gaza. Of course, it looks like the assault in Gaza is never going to end, buffer zone or no buffer zone, etc. So really, really similar

and deeply disturbing language coming from these Israeli ministers. Yeah, I mean, we have to spend a lot of time here because this is just, this is the most precarious that that region has now been, honestly, since October 7th. And worse, really, what it tells us is that the U.S. commitment to full-blown war is 100%. We have a sleep at the wheel, literally,

I mean the difference between his public rhetoric and then the actual actions could not be crazier. I just – I really can't believe that he has the gall or his people have the gall, whatever, to put him on the UNGA stage today and say that his foreign policy has had results and that there's peace around the world. Like how could you possibly have the worst war in Europe since World War II that you are fueling, by the way?

And now we have possibly an explosion of a war in the Middle East, which would bring the United States back in. Don't forget, 2006 was not that long ago. Israel, it was a big problem. And this is already looking way worse for them. Also, Lebanon is very different than Gaza. There is no argument about the – you were just talking about 1968 borders and all that. This is an internationally recognized country, all right? Not disputed. Yeah.

Yeah, it's not – there's nothing in the – what is it? From the river to the sea or whatever that applies as far as I know. I'm sure there's some biblical scholar that could disagree. My point is just that in the region as well, this would significantly, I think, ramp up tensions. The Gulf Arab states and others have always kind of had a weird relationship with Palestine. Recently, there's mostly just didn't care that much.

about the Palestinian issue. But with Lebanon, that's not the same thing. I mean, this is a country that they know, they have relations with. Iran in particular, I think this is one where this would be, everyone always liked to say like, oh, Hamas and Iran. I mean, this is Lebanon though. This is a majority and Hezbollah role, or at least Hezbollah country with a large Shia population. I'm not so sure that they would respond in the same way to October 7th, or that they did with Hamas, that they would with Hezbollah. I mean, they consider themselves like

blood brothers and allies. And if you have mass civilian death in the city of Beirut, I mean, just the possibility of mass explosion cannot be discounted. And the fact is, is that the containment strategy has not worked. It has failed completely from the Biden administration. All we get are background quotes. Everything that they tell us is, well, we hope that Hezbollah doesn't respond.

What is hope? I mean, what are we doing here? Are we a superpower or are we not? And I mean, the crazy part is that we are one and we are, you know, dispatching the firepower of the U.S. empire to a region which is not all that strategically important to defend a country that is not all that important to U.S. interests in a war where, frankly, like, what do we have to gain out of all this? So,

It's a real lesson in the failures of the Biden administration, their foreign policy. People will be writing about this and talking about it for decades, but I'm scared. I really am. I have absolute confidence in the worst way that the U.S. political establishment is committed to war, to this war in particular. Already we see Republican politicians and Democratic politicians, like Israel must have the right to defend itself. Of course. It's like a chant. It's like a mantra that you must. Yeah.

It's almost religious. It is. It's like a religious shibboleth that you must say before you're able to enter the temple of U.S. Congress. Yeah, there's a few Mac producer Mac points out about the BB commentary there, too. Message to the Lebanese people in English. Yeah, okay. Mm-hmm.

Obviously, this is meant to justify this onslaught to the American people and provide, you know, this bullshit rationale and pretend like, oh, we're really protecting Lebanese civilians, which we already see is not true. The other thing that's really significant to note is that I think there's a very good possibility that part of the intent here by Bibi is to

draw Iran war directly into this and provoke them. I mean, listen, there have already been exchanges of fire, Israel, that Israel provoked from Iran. Their retaliation has been largely relatively constrained, intentionally so, and frankly coordinated with the U.S. after the last provocation of assassinating Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on the eve of the new president's inauguration. They actually did not.

up responding which was showed incredible restraint at that point given that you know brazen attack on their own soil and So I think part of the intent here may be to try to provoke Iran into direct conflict so that then they have excuse and BB can get the his fondest wish of many years which is dragging the u.s. Into that conflict with Israel on the side of Israel versus Iran and I think they're also

There may be an intent here with the escalation in the West Bank where they have stopped providing West Bank with the tax revenues that they are due. So they're squeezing them financially. Palestinians in the West Bank are no longer able to go and work jobs in Israel. So there's a financial, a deep financial pressure being put on the West Bank. You've had a massive uptick in state-sanctioned settler violence.

And then you've also had this invasion of the IDF in the West Bank. And I think it's entirely possible that there's also a desire to provoke some sort of, you know, a mass uprising like another intifada.

in the West Bank to also justify a Gaza-style assault there as well. So that's what I see as likely strategic goals of Bibi Netanyahu. And if the Biden administration has any problems with any of this, it sure as hell doesn't seem like it from the way that they've approached the situation.

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only at highfivecasino.com. High Five Casino is a social casino. No purchase necessary. Void where prohibited. Play responsibly. Terms and conditions apply. See website for details at highthenumber5casino.com. High Five Casino. Let's move on to the next part, shall we? Yeah, so as part of, you know, one of the only democracy in the Middle East...

One of their latest actions was to raid the Al Jazeera headquarters in the West Bank and seize cameras, equipment, shut it down, etc. They sent in IDF soldiers to do this.

Ryan Grim has actually been in Doha at a conference there. I think he's back now. He just arrived back. I think he's back. The jet lag was pretty terrible. But while he was there, he appeared on Al Jazeera to talk about this situation. Let's take a listen to what he had to say. Joining us on set is Ryan Grim, co-founder of Dropside News and the host of the show Counterpoints. Thanks very much for joining us, Ryan.

This attempt to silence the media, is it a desperate attempt by a government that's increasingly under pressure?

I don't know how desperate an attempt it is or if it's a presage for, you know, a ramping up of the assault on the West Bank that we're seeing. I'm not sure I would characterize it necessarily as desperation. It is certainly a lashing out and a flailing. But, you know, this is of a pattern that we have seen consistently as you just laid out. And you say that it would...

potentially be a ramping up of military operations in the West Bank. So it's logical to conclude Israel wouldn't then want an international audience to see exactly what is happening there.

Well, they very conspicuously prevented international journalists from entering Gaza after October 7th. And also, as you mentioned, have killed more than 100 journalists on the ground there. So the number of working journalists in Gaza now is dwindling into the dozens. And so it does raise, it would raise alarms for me if I lived anywhere near there.

that step one would be the silencing of the media before step two, a ramping up of the assault. Israel is under an increasing amount of pressure, especially internationally. We've seen the tide turn in terms of what is acceptable. We've seen accusations, heard accusations of violating international law. Meanwhile, Israel calls itself the only democracy in the Middle East.

Actions like this against the free press, is it not then counterproductive? It doesn't help their case at all, does it? No, but I don't think that they have much credibility on the international stage left to lose. And so I think that going into their calculations here, they are already...

saying that we have lost this mantle of the most moral army, the only democracy in the Middle East. Those have become punchlines internationally rather than talking points that anybody takes seriously anymore. And so this feels like a gloves off situation because sending in armed troops to drag journalists out of their headquarters creates the kind of images

that would make any country calling itself a democracy ashamed. The fact that not only were they willing to do this, but it appears did so partly

for the production of those images suggests that they are beyond the realm of worrying about the PR of how it looks. I think that last point from Ryan is such an important one that they're not even trying anymore. And of course, you know, for liberal Zionists inside of Israel and the many liberal Zionists who defend all Israeli actions here, it becomes very difficult.

Because that key talk, the only democracy in the Middle East, becomes very difficult to say with a straight face when they're taking such...

actions that are brazen against a free press. And he's also right to point out, you know, it was very intentional that post October 7th, the only Western journalists who were allowed in were like, you know, if they went on a hand selected IDF ride along a friendly outlet like CNN, okay, we'll take you along. We'll show you what we want to show you. And

And even within those narrow confines, that still sometimes led to the exposing of horrific war crimes. Jeremy Diamond was able to expose some horrific war crimes, assaults on cemeteries in Gaza and things of the sort, and some debunking of IDF lies and propaganda as well, even within those narrow confines.

So the assault on journalism has been longstanding, but as Ryan says there, it's now just completely gloves off as they don't even try to maintain a fig leaf of credibility because internationally it's already preposterous. It's already a joke. Let me just put up

Al Jazeera's reporting on what exactly happened here, so I can give you some more of the details. They write, Israeli soldiers have raided Al Jazeera's bureau in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, ordered the Doha-based news network to shut down operations amid a widening Israeli crackdown on media freedom. Heavily armed and mass Israeli soldiers forcefully entered the building housing Al Jazeera's bureau, handed the 45-day closure order to the network's West Bank bureau chief. That bureau chief said that

that Israeli military's closure order accused the network of incitement to and support of terrorism. Al Jazeera also said that Israeli forces used tear gas in the vicinity of the bureau and in that area in the heart of the occupied West Bank city. She added Israeli soldiers confiscated their cameras and she feared the military might try to destroy Al Jazeera's archives, which are also stored in the office. You saw some of the footage, but we can put this back up on the screen when Ryan was talking of the

the assault on Al Jazeera's headquarters. I think we have some VO that we can play here as well of these masked IDF soldiers coming in, um,

holding weapons and what appeared actually to be cameras and raiding this office with very little notice. So yeah, Sagar, that's the reality in this great democratic ally of ours in the Middle East. Good to see Ryan in a different setting. It's definitely fun. Good to see him wrapping CP, wrapping counterpoints internationally. Love that. Respect Al Jazeera actually for saying counterpoints internationally.

host of that show. The details of it are honestly crazy. I mean, the more I read about it, I was like, okay, like what's the justification? It says the initial order is closed for 45 days. It was renewed. Al Jazeera journalists are not allowed to report from inside the country. After the raid, the bureau chief says, what are they doing to our office?

The government media in a government media office in Gaza still has maintained its own problems. The secretary general of the Palestinian initiative said Israel, quote, had no right legally speaking to even close any office in Ramallah, which just kind of highlights the entire insanity of the legal regime and how this entire thing works. So the whole thing is nuts. And it's one of those where I can just say in the region, you know, at this moment, this is all being taken notice of and discussed.

Yes, nothing exploded luckily post-October 7th yet in other places, Jordan, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. But all of these places, they have their own populations. Their own populations who – Al Jazeera is their number one news source and they see things like this and the level of anger gets ramped up. A conflagration in Lebanon would be just what they need for there to be some sort of global crisis.

conflagration in the entire region and that's probably what I worry about the most.

Al Jazeera is the only large network that has been able to maintain coverage in Gaza et al and in West Bank. I mean, a lot of the more professional images and understanding of this conflict that we've been able to obtain are courtesy of their genuinely brave journalists. And remember that quite a number of journalists, I think 100 journalists, have been killed by Israel, right?

since October 7th. And some of those have been Al Jazeera journalists. So now they're just

They don't want any sunlight whatsoever. They don't want people to know. They don't want those images coming out. And so they're making this show of force and shutting Al Jazeera down entirely. And it's a loss for all of us that we won't have access to the same level of reporting that we did previously. Yeah, all I want is the ability to see all sides. It's totally fine. Israel, you want to put your stuff out? Okay, cool. But just let people in. That's it. Lock people in to report. And I think it's telling. If you're fighting such a moral war.

You should want to show us. Yeah, exactly. You shouldn't have it. I mean, look, you can hate America, but there were literally journalists on the front lines of Iraq in the front convoy. Some of the best. One of my favorite books, Generation Kill, was literally from a guy there. It's like with this level of press access, it's like zero. It's absolutely ridiculous.

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Mark your calendars so you don't miss out on this celebración. Visita visittucson.org slash viva.

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Let's move on to Ukraine. This is just, I mean, this is an insane situation. It's that President Zelensky is here in the United States, not just in the United States, in a battleground state, flown there on a U.S. Air Force jet so that him and the governor of Pennsylvania can have a grotesque signing here.

of bombs that are being manufactured to be shipped into war. Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. Governor Shapiro met President Zelensky on the tarmac. They appeared together. That's Bob Casey, by the way, right there, the senator also from Pennsylvania, shaking Zelensky's hands. And they're like gleefully in this factory signing bombs that are being manufactured in Scranton, Pennsylvania, manufactured, by the way, with our tax dollars, and then being shipped a

abroad to fund the war in Ukraine. And he says, you know, we must all do our part for the fight for freedom, the workers in Scranton, the arsenal of democracy. This is all just World War II nostalgia BS. And the details of it show anything but. I mean, for example, let's put this up there. My friend Dan Caldwell flagged this. You can see right here.

Zelensky was flown to Pennsylvania on a U.S. Air Force C-17. The quote, the Biden-Harris administration is using military assets to fly a foreign leader into a battleground state to undermine their political opponents. And if you think he's exaggerating, at

the very same time that this was all happening, he literally gave an interview to The New Yorker where he was denouncing any of the Trump vans, or I guess vans in particular, statements saying that the war in Ukraine needs to come to an end. And of course, as always, with Zelensky's visits to America to

beg for weapons. There's a split screen as to how the rest of the world is allowed to have like a very rational conversation in America, just like with Israel, we have to like bow down before Ukraine and be like, no, please take all the money and weapons we could possibly give you. Put this on the screen. For example, you can't accuse this guy of being a Russian shill. Ukraine quote, needs to be realistic about its goals. This is from the president of the Czech Republic.

President Petro Pavel, a quote, former NATO general who has been vocal in his support for Ukraine, said Kyiv needed to accept that some territory could remain under Russian control, quote, at least temporarily. He said that Ukraine needs to be realistic. The most probable outcome of the war, he says, will be that the part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation temporarily.

But add to that, temporary thing could last for years. And, I mean, it's almost noteworthy to me, Crystal, that the most obvious thing in the world to any casual observer is anathema in diplomatic and U.S. foreign policy circles. If you utter that very basic sentiment, you're accused of being a Russian sympathizer. You know, no one is saying that this is a good outcome.

It is just the realistic outcome without further escalating the war. And of course, Zelensky's chief aim from everything I've seen so far is to prosecute a case in the media and on the Biden administration at the United Nations to force the United States to allow him to use long range missiles and strike inside of Russia. That's what this is all about. This whole little campaign stop and everything is about further escalating the war. And we just talked about Lebanon.

How many wars are we supposed to be funding here? At what point does it end? What does America have at stake? Allowing long-range missiles to be fired inside of Russia, where their president, Vladimir Putin, take him at least somewhat seriously, says that would be an official declaration of war by NATO.

Okay, I mean, the guy has nuclear weapons. You have to take it seriously. You don't have to like the guy. You have to take it seriously. Can we put B1 back up on the screen? Put it on the screen, please. I want to dwell on this for a moment. First of all, I have a question for you, Sagar, which is, is this thing of signing missiles, is this like a longstanding thing? Because there were so many politicians who did this in Israel, which is great. Jerry Seinfeld did this in Israel and bombs that were going to murder Palestinian children. It is...

is a grotesque practice to be like delightedly signing weapons of war that are going to be used to kill human beings. And I think that this should not be normal. I don't think it should be normalized to the extent it already is. That is deeply disturbing.

The other thing, and you mentioned the language about the, quote, arsenal of democracy. This is language that Biden himself unveiled a number of months back. And then he sent out a bunch of, and to the extent that he does anything or directs anything from his White House at this point, sent out some of his administration officials to circulate a talking point in Congress that providing military aid is, quote, unquote, good for American jobs. And, um,

This is part of the story of why we have these continually expanding military budgets, endlessly expanding military budgets. It's part of the story of why we end up getting ourselves entangled in one, two, three wars at a time and are never able to extricate ourselves from them.

is because, first of all, you have a lot of people like Josh Shapiro on both sides of the aisle who are like, do see it as a jobs program and do see it as good for them politically to have these weapons makers in their state and production ramping up to be able to send bombs to the frontline in Ukraine, send bombs to our great democratic allies in Israel, obviously said tongue-in-cheek.

And obviously the people that own those factories and the large weapons makers, they're the ones who really benefit from this. So the fact that this has become such an important component of the American economy and that it has become such an important part of the personal financial bottom lines of so many people who are within a 30 mile radius of where we sit right now, that is an understated part

of why we find ourselves in these situations over and over and over again, in spite of the fact that, you know, if you ask the American people, hey, you know, especially with regard to Israel and Palestine getting dragged into a broader Middle East war, views are more divided with regard to Ukraine. It's roughly, I think, 50-50 split in terms of the approach there.

But if you ask about, hey, you want to go fight a war with Israel against Iran? I guarantee you, you will have majorities across the board that say abso-fricking-lutely not. And yet here we are getting pulled back into the Middle East. Let me just address that too about Ukraine. I mean, this idea that it injects all this cash flow into the U.S. is bullshit. The top U.S. defense contractors are raking in record profits and are redistributing those profits not to workers through share buybacks

to their investors. It's not just the US. Ukraine has been the greatest gift in modern history since Iraq to the modern defense industry. They're printing money. And here's the thing, they're not even that good at what they do. That arms factory and all that, we're spending more to manufacture arms than we did in the 1990s for something per capita basis, which is way more expensive. They're not even good at their jobs. That's the ironic part of all of this.

It's not particularly that great for the US economy. It's only good for a bunch of defense contract shareholders and investors. Now, let's continue on this whole like, what are we doing here exactly? Shall we? Let's see. Let's put this on the screen. Financial Times. Russia overwhelms Ukrainian forces on the Eastern Front.

quote, Moscow is taking advantage of Kiev's redeployment into the Kursk region. Remember when Ukraine invaded Russia and everyone was like, wow, what a genius move? Well, their own commanders are now saying, quote,

commanders and soldiers see this as the cost of the Kursk offensive and a poor trade-off. Kursk was a good idea. It exposed Russia as being weaker than many people believed, but we are paying the price of it with more of our own land. And in fact, they talk about how Russian forces have captured several towns in the Donetsk region. It says Ukraine, quote, had hoped its audacious operation would force the Kremlin to redeploy resources from Donetsk, but that has not

And instead, they have had several towns now fall to Russian forces. Russia is now facing calls inwardly actually to increase the amount of soldiers for conscription purposes. They have no signs. Their economy is a full-on war economy now at this point. I mean, they have no current signs of

of turning back. Every single thing that the Ukrainians have done to try and escalate has been good for headlines, but the actual ground situation has changed nothing. They've not gained any more territory, especially of their own territory that they allegedly, you know, is so sacred and that we're supposed to like, you know, bend over backwards to keep for them. At every level, it's not working. Even their long-range missile strikes and all that. It's like, well, okay, they can't even make a case. How many square miles of territory are you going to get back

if that were allowed to happen. And is that worth the risk? No, because when you start talking this way, they can't do it. The whole argument falls apart. And instead, Zelensky is in the pages of The New Yorker going after our presidential candidates on U.S. soil, interesting, and also basically saying that it's a ridiculous

Ridiculous proposition that they could give up a single ounce of territory This is when you know a sizable portion of his own population wants to just end the war Yeah, the ones who are left not the ones who are you know filthy rich and fled who are all over Central Europe But that's a whole other situation and you know, I I largely don't blame Zelensky But in one way, I think he is very culpable for the current situation which is that he has painted a

you know, I would say overly rosy is like sort of too kind. He's just lied about how the war is going with his own population. And so even in spite of that overwhelming propaganda campaign, not unusual in wartime, but in spite of that propaganda campaign, you have increasing numbers who are saying, listen, guys, we're going to have to give up some of our territory because

And you can imagine that if you had a leader who was more honest about the trade-offs and what a realistic path forward looked like, then you might have an even greater consensus within Ukrainian society in favor of, all right, at some point we have to get to the negotiating table and we have to make some sort of a deal. My point for a long time has just been this. Tell me what the endgame is. Tell me what your plan is. Tell me how this ends. Tell me how it ends well for Ukraine. Tell me how it ends well for us. What?

how much, what's the, is there a dollar figure on it? Is there a timeline on it? Is there a plan? Is there a strategy? And effectively, since that, was it the spring offensive that was hyped up? Yes.

and ultimately didn't result in the massive gains that were predicted or hoped for or expected or whatever, that was the last time that there was any sort of U.S. strategy with regard to this conflict that was at all comprehensible to me. And at this point, they're just on autopilot. They just want to, like—

keep the sort of rhetoric that like, you know, human rights rhetoric, which is obviously incredibly hypocritical when you see what we're funding in Israel and Palestine. They just want to keep that flowing and kind of keep it on the back burner, keep it out of the front, out of the headlines in the news so that we can muddle through. And they're locked into kind of indefinite war mode, like low burner, indefinite war mode. And it's disgusting because, again, you're talking about

actual human beings who are being slaughtered. You're talking about real cities that had, you know, vibrant lives and communities and history to them that are being flattened and, you know, will be, will never be the same again. And, but, you know, there's, there's no ability to have a serious conversation about trade-offs, about what the plan is, about what the strategy is. And so you just end up in this muddle. You know, with regard to the politics of this, it's pretty split.

50-50 who people think would do a better job. And I think it's pretty split in general, 50-50 and how people want to approach the Ukraine war. I can put this up on the screen. After the last debate, this was polling that came out that showed which candidate...

would be better on the issue. 49% say Trump would do a better job. With regard to the Russia-Ukraine war, 47% say Kamala Harris. So pretty split. I also think we shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking that this is a primary issue that people are voting on at this point. Not to say that there's no one that cares about it, and certainly not to say that it's not important. But oftentimes, foreign affairs doesn't end up being the top issue that people are voting on, especially when you don't have direct American boots on the ground.

But nevertheless, regardless of where the political standing is, you know, the Biden-Harris administration owes the American people an explanation. And Trump, by the way, owes the American people an explanation of, because he just uses this, oh, it never would have happened with me. He says he'll solve it. Oh, I'll end the war. But, you know, specifics are important here. What does that mean exactly? And because they have, Kamala has subjected herself to bigotry.

basically no adversarial interviews. Trump has done very few adversarial interviews. We only had this one debate. This is the sort of thing that neither one of them has really truly been pressed on. And this is a good show at the top because what people, I know everybody wants to know about inflation and all that. The truth is the president and their ability to influence inflation, macroeconomic events, and in general, that's really going to touch your economic life. It's pretty low. But

In war, it's actually, they have total discretion to be able to do whatever they want. The imperial American president has 100% ability to get the United States into a full-on nuclear war. Not enough people ever really grapple with that.

only when tensions are very high or 2000, what was it, 2004 after the Iraq war prior to that. In the Soviet Union times, it was more elevated because people had the specter of nuclear annihilation on their minds at all time. But that's mostly gone away. But if you look at the most consequential acts,

in the last 25 years, all of them come back to terrible foreign policy mishaps. The war in Iraq ended up costing like six trillion. The war in Afghanistan cost two trillion, tens of thousands of dead. The downstream effects of that on global trade, on US position, on American superpower status, on Chinese competition, all of it is a disaster.

If you look right now at Lebanon and that's also Russia and Ukraine, the consequences of each of these individual decisions are gonna be tenfold to whatever tax legislation that you pass in the immediate term. And the problem is the tail end effect of it is just so high. And people don't really think that way. They think very...

They have a lot of recency bias, and most people are not paying attention, and that's fine. It really is. But you just shouldn't be surprised then when something flares up, and then your son ends up having to get deployed, or you end up paying more for a gallon of gas, or your favorite company or whatever can't ship you anything because –

The straits are completely closed from warfare. And that's a very likely possibility. And in both of these cases, we're looking at a very, very unstable world of which we are the primary bankroller of both. And that's what I think just underscores it really for me. These –

wars, we have nothing really at stake, for real. Like, what does America care? What do you care if you live in whatever, Scranton, Pennsylvania, the square mile territory control of the Donetsk region of Ukraine? Same with Israel and with Lebanon. Why should we be funding this? Nobody will give you a real straight answer. Oh, it's like, oh, democracy. American Jobs Program, Sagar. But that's fake. It's like a couple hundred jobs in Scranton. It's also, I mean...

It's also deeply sick to just structure such a large part of your economy around weapons of war meant to destroy human beings. But even if there is some truth to like, oh, this is creating jobs in Scranton, Pennsylvania or whatever, it's a deeply, deeply sick situation.

and depraved way to structure and think about your economy. But yeah, I mean the other thing is the whole thing just seems so directionless. Like the American super is just being buffeted around by world events and doing whatever Zelensky wants us to do, doing whatever Bibi Netanyahu wants to do. And with Netanyahu and Biden, like you know this guy is a political adversary. You know what he's all about.

And yet you still can't bring yourself to break from the mass overwhelming bipartisan consensus that we just gotta do whatever Israel wants us to do in perpetuity, no matter the consequences to our own strategic interests and no matter certainly the consequences to human life in the region. So very dark developments, very dark developments on both fronts.

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