8/22/24: DNC LIVE: Kamala Speech, Warmongering, Trump, Abortion
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All right, everybody, we are coming out of Kamala Harris's speech. Officially, it doesn't seem like there will be a special guest and we'll give you all of our reactions. No,

Not as long of a speech as I initially expected. I think it rolled in roughly around a half hour mark or so. Started with biography, had some economy, foreign policy, and then some of the generic wrap-up there. So, Crystal, overall, what was your impression? I mean, listen, I can't get away from the Gaza portion, which just absolutely sucked. You know, I mean, it's one thing...

The key thing here for me is the language around October 7th is appropriately evocative, right? It's visceral. It's about the horrors. There is responsibility ascribed for the atrocities that were committed on October 7th by Hamas. When it's Palestinians...

Suddenly, they're just they're just suffering. By who? Why? For what? She doesn't say. And I mean, that's typical, right? I guess she said more about them than probably Joe Biden would have. But if you're looking for any indication that.

that there would be a different policy here with regard to Israel. Like, there's zero indication of that. And the entire foreign policy portion, Sagar, you were making this point of like, you know, Hillary Clinton sort of leans into trying to be super hawkish to overcome like the sense of, you know, oh, because I'm a woman, people won't...

the entire foreign policy section read to me like that, you know, going in like sort of basically like warmongering against Iran and I will create the most lethal military that has ever existed, et cetera, et cetera. It's like, all right, calm down. Let me go military. I will never give

Israel. I will never stop Israel's right to defend itself. I'll always give them the arms. I will bomb Iran if I need to. Oh, actually, Kim Jong-un, who we would hope to make a deal with. Oh, no, no. He's actually cheering for Donald Trump. It was very classic neoconservative rhetoric in that respect. Go ahead. David, do you have a David Sirota of Levered News, by the way. We're posting this separately. Go ahead. I completely agree. I mean, I think that but I also think that

Again, what we were talking about before, the idea that she reflects the center of the Democratic Party. That was a very center of the Democratic Party speech. Yeah. And on the economy as well. Yeah. And by the way, I also think that she has recognized, rightly so, fair or unfair, that her economic, the views, people view her as different from Biden as a vessel for economic policy. Yeah. Yeah.

I'm not exactly sure is completely fair, but she's benefiting from it. Right. Right. That she gets to say, I'm going to do that. I'm I'm dealing with affordability. I'm going to deal with with costs. She talks a lot about prices. Without having to answer.

for the criticism aimed at Biden. Yeah. And we should actually ask David while he's here for your thoughts on there were a lot of references tonight to Kamala Harris post 2008 and the recession. And they're building this myth of Kamala Harris as a basically an economic populist in the midst of the recession back in 2008 and the aftermath of 2008.

Haven't seen a ton of media fact checks of that other than from people like you David. Yeah, I mean I This gets wonky so I'm gonna ask the audience to stick with us But it is important because she made it a central part both of her speech all week up all week And we had Roy Cooper who uses it to introduce her so many others. Yeah, I mean the background is is that she was part of a national mortgage settlement that was essentially a giveaway to

to the banks that created the financial crisis. Without getting into all of the details, the banks should have been prosecuted criminally. The settlement was what essentially the banks wanted.

To be given... To get them off the legal hook. Exactly. Steve Mnuchin. Yeah, and there was that... She did not prosecute Steve Mnuchin, despite people in her office wanting him to be prosecuted. To your point, David, though, it is very telling that she has decided this is an area of her image that not only is she going to rehab, but the center of the Democratic Party, and I think the center of American politics, really, is to create this image as unlawful

I'm taking on the big banks. I'm delivering specifically for homeowners. And she has leaned into housing policy and read the tea leaves there in terms of where people are. You know, a few things with regard to just... One other detail on the lie there. Yeah, go ahead. Correct me if I'm wrong there, but, you know, they talk about a $20 billion settlement. My memory is that the banks got credit towards the $20 billion for the losses that they suffered in the banking crisis. Wow. That's right. So I

I think what's bothersome about it, although I can see it from her political advisors, is that they can tell a story that is not just untrue, but that is the opposite of the truth. And very few people will know that or care about that, which is probably...

and also bad. Yeah. That's why sites like yours and Dropsite News exist. Emily, what do you think? What was your overall reaction? So overall, I think it's very clear that Kamala Harris is good and she's not great. And one of the things that hurt her in 2019 is she had a lot of hype. And as she started talking more and more, there was a sort of myth of Kamala Harris that had been

promoted, it's almost like it doesn't do her favors to get covers like that Time Magazine cover. Yeah, that's a good point. Because now the entire public has been primed to see her as some Obama-esque figure. And while I do think we've been talking about it all week, this convention has been well choreographed. It has looked good. They've hit a lot of good notes while avoiding some dicier elements. We're sort of talking about like so-called wokeness and how they managed to sort of thread that needle.

Kamala Harris did a good job tonight, but she is not Barack Obama. And when you're telling people she's Barack Obama, you do run the risk of as soon as she has to debate Donald Trump, as soon as she has to start doing more things without prompters, more interviews, it's possible that actually really backfires on them ultimately. That's an astute point about, I mean, clearly like they're very intentionally leaning into even, you know, adopting the hope approach.

Yes, she can chant. Exactly. Yes, she can. Like, you know, they buried Hillary Clinton and Biden on day one to be like, go ahead, guys. OK, let's not talk about that anymore. And one of the things in terms of a contrast with the way Hillary ran her campaign in 2016 that I found noteworthy is that

Kamala Harris spent a lot of time, which I don't love, but I thought worked effectively enough in this speech, on her bio at the beginning. And what I noticed about the way she set up herself, unlike Hillary, where it's like, I'm special, I'm breaking the glass ceiling, like you're helping me basically realize my grand dreams and aspirations. The whole point of Kamala Harris's biographical narrative was to say, I'm just like you. I'm...

coming from the same neighborhoods that you're coming from. I had the same middle-class upbringing that you, you know, either had or would like your children to have and aspire to. You know, I grew up with the same nurses and teachers and firefighters that were

wanted to have their lawn look nice and work hard and play by the rules, et cetera, et cetera. And it's a very different biographical narrative than the narrative of, you know, I'm the first female, I'm the first black woman, I'm the first biracial woman that was much more heavily leaned into in the Hillary Clinton campaign. I think that is very smart. We can all we all know you're a trailblazer. We can see that that's that's there. You don't have to say it.

And so that strategy, which was evident throughout the week, I think was was very effective. I thought the way she talked about Donald Trump was also very effective. And when she had that line, she was like, you know, in a lot of ways, he's not he's unserious. He's an unserious man, which gets to the weird and belittling him. But she said the things he wants to do are serious.

She talks not only about, you know, January 6th and all of those sorts of things, but she also then immediately pivots to, hey, here are the things that he wants to do to you. He wants to take away your Social Security. He wants to take away the Affordable Care Act. He wants to get rid of the Department of Education. He wants to cut Head Start programming. So both the sort of grander issues.

legitimate grievances against Donald Trump were there, but she also made it very concrete to people's lives in a way that I thought was smart and connected. I don't think it was bad. A lot of her economic stuff was more negative than it was positive, as in like, here's what Trump would do to you, and here's something that I would try and do contrast. And obviously not a lot of specifics. That's not really what you do. I

didn't think the January 6th part of the speech was all that strong actually I thought that was part of the more like classic liberal kind of like the classic hits like oh he wants to January 6th was bad but those those hits work that's definitely true so I mean people don't like that about it just felt like to me I was like I feel like the country's heard that before they're already voting for her I will say this was not as good of a speech as I thought she was gonna give

I thought it was like, I don't know, almost like a C plus or something like that for her, just relative to the expectation because she's been pretty decent on the stump. I mean, compare and contrast this to Tim Walls. I don't think you can even look at the two. I mean, I think Tim Walls is an extraordinary talent. I would be very happy to skip over the Kamala Harris era right into the Tim Walls era, but that's not on the menu. Yeah, I want to get Ryan in here. Unless I miss it on your point about her economic arguments being negative rather than

positive. She easily could have done, you know, he's going to try to repeal the ACA again. He's going to cut your Social Security, though he's been saying on the stump repeatedly, you know, he's not going to do that and he's going to expand Social Security. But because he tried to do it, you know, and when he was president, she's going to take that clean shot. But she could have added, and I'm going to expand Medicare. So it includes dental and vision or, you know, I'm going to add

add the child and you're going to child tax credit. Did he did she do any of the. I did not hear the word out. She knows this opportunity economy thing. She did. She she did touch on some of those pieces. She did talk about some of those pieces. I'd have to go back and look at the transcript to see exactly which policies she name checked. I know she did talk about like, you know, housing, expanding the housing supply and could have added expanding Social Security. She hasn't come out with anything to respond to Trump because Trump is out there saying that he's going to cut your taxes on Social Security. He said, I won't.

won't cut taxes. Oh, and that was one thing she definitely said was that he wanted, and she's talking about his tariff policy, he wants to raise your taxes, the Trump taxes. I'm going to give the working class a giant tax cut. Go ahead. Yeah, and I also think that one thing that's concerning about the whole election is that the

I think it's a smart thing to do and worthwhile to take apart Project 2025. But the mix of taking apart Project 2025 and not really offering a fleshed out agenda, what's the takeaway from the election? The less you say, the less you offer, the smarter your politics. - Well, I think that was true. - That was the Obama-- - I mean, right, I do think it's accurate to a point.

I think there's a middle ground between here's a 925 page point by point ideological treatise. Right. And here's like one concrete policy. Right. I mean, she did give, you know, she gave a policy speech. Yeah. You have some concrete policy. So I don't want to pretend like there's nothing that we know. She talked to, you know, it was a whole freak out of, oh my God, price controls, blah, blah, blah. 28% corporate tax hike. She said, but,

But to your point, even the price gouging, price control conversation, like she left that pretty vague about what exactly that would actually look like. Also, congratulations to the Democrats for it taking 40 years of Heritage Foundation mandate for leadership to figure out that that's a good target. Right. Literally. Right.

They said in the 80s, they were like, let's get rid of the Department of Education. I do find this ironic, too, because, you know, I was thinking about it. There's not a policy section of our website, but all of Project 2025 is actually on our website. And I was thinking just about that. She's like, if you go to KamalaHarris.com and read Project 2025. But I'm like, but where's the policy section of your website? The unfortunate point I'm taking away from this election is that that's probably the correct place.

I was going to say, yeah, is that you let everything kind of float into the ether. You go off the vibe and you just kind of let people project or project. Well, this is the Obama. This is the Obama. But she's not Obama. That's the interesting thing. Let's be honest. The Trump 2016 model, too. I'm going to give you the best healthcare in the world. Absolutely. Everyone will be covered. Yeah, everyone will be covered. Yeah. I mean, it's still the Trump model.

Because, yeah, I mean, he'll say, like, for example, he'll criticize Project 2025, but he won't say, he'll say, like, some parts are great and some parts are terrible. But he never elucidates which parts are the parts that are great and which parts are the parts that are terrible. Comrade Crystal. But this is the, you know, this is the...

She... The most... The legitimate... Very legitimate... One of many legitimate hits on her is she is a chameleon. Like, she has been all over the place ideologically. And...

She's trying to turn that into an asset of then if you are progressive, you look at how she ran when she was running for president and how she voted in the Senate. And you're like, oh, she's a progressive. And I think the choice of Tim Walz adds some credibility to that framing of her because he kind of comes with a ready made agenda.

It's an agenda that she has some track record, you know, the care economy stuff that she has some track record of actually caring about. It maybe is the one thing you could look through on her career and say has been pretty consistent. And so you can project that onto her. She's obviously leaning very much into like Kamala the cop. Yeah.

going after the transnational gangs. And the cartels, Crystal. Don't forget the cartels. Exactly. And being tough on crime and all of them. They did a whole montage of her with a cop jacket on and with the cops and all that stuff, right? So you can project that.

If you are just if you're like the Adam Kinzinger types who are just looking for a kind of return to normal, you know, I mean, she's Joe Biden's vice president. And that's just this very sort of like normie, you know, decorum driven type of politics. So she's hoping she can pull off to Election Day what Barack Obama did, which is allowing people to see in her what they want to see in her. But to Emily's point,

She's good out there. I thought she gave this speech well. She's obviously not Barack Obama. I mean, he is a generational political talent. We saw that on the stage this week, him and his wife. Exceptional political talents. She is not that level. So it becomes a much more difficult trick to pull off. Then again, it's a short campaign and she doesn't have to do it for all that long. Yes. And it's worth just mentioning that she's on the brink of the presidency without ever having really won anything.

Yeah. Like she was a machine politician. I wish Dan was here because he knows the California politics better. You're a little closer to California. So maybe. And her name is David. The last really competitive election she had must have been. AG. Yeah. Yeah. The AG primary. Right. Yeah. The AG primary where she had the support of the entire Bay Area machine. Yeah. So she was she

She had the advantage there. When she ran for Senate, it was against Linda Sanchez's sister. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was just a totally hapless candidate. Whose seat was she?

- Barbara Boxer? - Yeah. - Is that right? - Yeah. - Yeah. - Who, Linda Sanchez? - No, no. - Whose seat was Kamala? - I think it was Barbara Boxer. - It was Boxer. - Oh yes. - She replaced her. - Right, Boxer. So she didn't, there was no Republican, no serious Republican running and she beat a hapless Democrat. And then she runs for president and just gets absolutely wasted and drops out in 2019 before any votes are cast. And then she gets picked as vice president.

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- I did think opportunity economy was very weak. Something that both David Sirota and I both flagged was the VC shout out. I'm sure you did as well. When she was like, "We're gonna give funds to small businesses "and entrepreneurs and founders." And I was like, "Oh." I was like, "I know what this little bat signal is out there." - Yes, that's the Bay Area. - Yeah, that's the Bay Area Congresswoman that we all love. - Hey tech guys, you're gonna get some special loans. - Keep the money flowing in, let Reid Hoffman,

Once a California machine politician. Yeah, exactly. You know where your bread is buttered. Totally. I'm looking a little bit more. I thought the abortion, I wrote in my notes about the abortion section that I thought that actually was probably the strongest. One of the things I've been trying to remark on here is that I found it remarkable democratic embrace of social libertarianism at this convention. And so for me, I mean, A, I think that's very, very popular.

in this country. Absolutely. And so for her, when she says he plans to create a national anti-abortion coordinator, the freedom to love who you love, like this very social libertarian language is extremely popular. Going after the Barstool Conservatives. Yeah, we're in the Barstool studio and the Barstool Conservatives, right? And it's like, I was, that actually thought out of all

of every almost everything she said that probably might be the most impactful part of her entire speech, just because that is the number one reason why a lot of Democrats came out to vote. I mean, the half a billion dollars that she's raised so far. And I just think the language calibration by Tim Walz and by her and really all Democrats, they've had they've had a lot of party discipline over this last week. I've frankly been impressed by it. I'm like these people, they are playing to win. That's what I think.

Yeah, I'll steal Ryan's point on this because I think it's the right point. The thing about abortion politics that makes it so powerful is that it's so tangible. Yeah. Like, it's very clear. It's a, you know, very clear promise. It's very clear, you know, the direction of the Republican Party and who is responsible for the current state of affairs that's overwhelmingly unpopular. You know, it's very clear that...

I think it was genuinely jarring and shocking to a lot of people that like we had this right and now we don't like holy shit that means anything's on the table.

So I also, you know, she's obviously much more credible on the issue and much more comfortable talking about the issue than Joe Biden ever, even at his best. Right. Even 10 years ago, Joe Biden would have been. And I do think, you know, a key piece of of this is I saw this. You guys may have seen read into this more, but I saw Schumer was floating potentially a filibuster. We talked about. Yeah. Getting rid of the filibuster, maybe just for Roe versus Wade.

So I think it is possible that they actually do deliver and put a focus on that issue. But even if they don't, just not having the Republicans in charge is very motivating to a lot of people on that issue. It's a very powerful negative case. It's a very powerful, tangible thing that you can very—

quite easily do. - He owns Dobbs. He owns Dobbs. - Yeah, and there's no way around it. - Yeah, he cannot run away from it. - And she read the quote. She said, he said, "I did it, I'm glad I did it," or "I'm proud of it," or whatever the language was, very unequivocal, and it's undeniable.

obviously. And I'm reading again just through my notes. I mean, I didn't, again, I didn't think the Jan stuff, sick stuff was all that strong, but you're not wrong. People did vote on that. I thought the abortion section was as strong as, I mean, the foreign policy stuff, if we want to come back, was crazy. It's like, that really was. I mean, I think there's something in there for everybody to hate, especially if you watch this show. The Ukraine and the

NATO stuff, which was very clear that she will escalate the war and will continue what's going on on Israel. I mean, it was basically, I think Biden could have given that speech. And maybe she spoke a little bit differently on the Palestinian issue, on Iran. He said, those protesters out there have a point.

- That's what you said the other day. - I apologize, you're right. I mean, on the Iran stuff, I mean, for me, it was a very, it was almost like a Hillary Clinton-esque speech. And I saw one of Tim Miller who works over at the Bulwark, one of the Never Trump types, and he just said something I think is astute and true. He's like, "The border and foreign policy section "of this speech could have come "from the John McCain Convention." And I was like, yeah, I think that's actually, that's very accurate and fitting because,

I don't know if you guys caught this, did you see Ruben Gallego who's running for Senate in Arizona? He was like, "John McCain was an American hero." And I was like, "Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God." - Give him the people that they want. - We have an Arizona Democratic Senator on the DNC state. - Who's running against Carrie Lake. - Who's running against Carrie Lake. - Remember who trashed McCain. - Praising John McCain on the Democratic stage. So there is some ideological fusion that's happening. - I am of the opinion, as I said this before,

Democrats in the same way that Republicans just should try to avoid talking about abortion because they are not going to win on abortion. And I also think that for them, the landscape of like who's going to be better, you know, family policy and like social welfare policy for families. I also think that's dramatically losing territory for Republicans. I don't think Democrats, especially given the current framing and the fact that they've completely accepted Republican framing on immigration, like.

you just shouldn't talk about immigration. Like, I'm serious. Like, the best thing you can do is just not have this election be about immigration. That is what your opponent wants this election to be about. So, the amount that they affirmatively brought it up and they had their little, like, montages ready and she had a significant part of her speech in here and they think it's

such a brilliant strategy to be like, actually, we came up with the toughest border strategy ever and adopted all of, you know, the Trumpian tactics and the Border Patrol loved it. And I, you know, I hate it from a moral perspective. I think it's wrong, but I also think it's stupid politically. And I think there's a lot of data to back that up. So the best thing that they could do on immigration is just try to change the subject in my humble opinion.

- I have a question. - Go ahead, Emily. - Yeah, and this is Ryan, David, maybe you, Crystal. You guys have been to a fair amount of Dem conventions. I'm guessing '08, '12, '16. - This is my second one. - I was at '16. - Ryan's been there since '08, man. - That's right. - Yeah, yeah. - 96. - Whoa!

- Okay. - Bill Clinton still got your geek though. - So in terms of nominee, you can just see David Sirota hating Bob Dole. - Seething, seething. - Seething over the Dole. - But actually that's really interesting. - Dole. - That's interesting given what you were talking about earlier when you were saying like the center of the Democratic Party looks different now, it's a shift. But in terms of nominee speeches, how did this one compare to what you guys have heard before?

- It was like pretty, I mean, 'cause everything's-- - A little shorter, right? - Shorter. - Clinton loved to go forever, right? - Shorter, and like everything's judged now by Obama. - Yeah. - So it's like hard to-- - Hard to measure up to that. - Yeah, it's like you can't measure up to, he's a great speaker.

David, I wanted to ask you to pick back up on the comments you were making earlier when we were so rudely interrupted by, I don't know, Ruben Geig or whoever we decided to jump to. Eva Longoria. You were talking about how the center of the Democratic Party had shifted and that, you know, that's something for the left to take heart in because one.

what I thought was maybe the most notable line at the entire convention was freaking Gina Raimondo, who was like the most corporate of corporate, VC lady, right? Was singing from the Lena Kahn hymnal. Yes. Talking about anti-monopoly actions. And I thought, wow, that means this battle is over. Like if even Gina Raimondo is on this tune in the Democratic Party, this is the direction they're going in. I am old enough to remember the DLC.

Ryan Grimm is probably old enough. Oh, I remember the DLC too. I read about it. Why don't you explain to people about the DLC? The DLC was the sort of corporate wing of the Democratic Party and it had its own explicit think tank. It had its own explicit movement. It wasn't kind of camouflaged, underground, the new Democrats. And the divide between the

back then, basically the liberals and the DLC was a definitional battle or divide in the Democratic Party. And that divide brand-wise

at least maybe in practice it still exists but as a as a branding thing it it basically doesn't exist anymore right there's still third way that tries to carry the torch of third third way is pretty like right in the middle of the party right exactly so i do think there's this closure now where there was this upsurge in or a culmination in that divide in 16 between bernie and hillary

And that there might have been a continuation of that divide had Biden not unexpectedly in some ways taken up some of the Bernie agenda or a kind of Bernie-ish agenda. Right. But because Biden did do that, it doesn't feel like that divide defines this convention or this party anymore. Yeah.

I wish I could remember who wrote the piece because I would like to give them credit, but my brain doesn't work, so I can't. Someone wrote that. Have some high news. It was remarkable how unremarkable Bernie's speech was, that a lot of his rhetoric sounds just like what Kamala Harris said and Gretchen Whitmer and Tim Walz and everybody else, right? This much more...

populist orientation towards economics.

Also, the much more accessible language than like the way AOC was talking a few years ago, that has just become the way Democrats talk about economics now. And not just that, but as you're pointing out, Joe Biden, who was on this was the guy who was like doing the bidding of the credit card issuers. He was basically a DLC Democrat. Yeah. Terrible track record ends up taking on labor and antitrust in particular being a true break.

from the neoliberal era. And I wonder, I've asked a few people this question because I find it kind of fascinating. Like, why do you think that happens with Biden? I mean, a lot of reasons. I think one, I think he realized the center of the party had shifted.

in the 90s into the 2000s, the center of the party or at least the cool thing to be in the party was the guy who would kick the left. - The left, yeah. - That's no longer the cool thing to be in the party. And I think that's a credit to Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren,

groups like AELP, the American Economic Liberties Project, the anti-trust movement. I think there's a lot of the revived labor movement. I think all of that has worked together to say punching left

on economics is no longer the way you get you this no longer the way you advance in the Democratic Party is no longer the way to build your brand in the Democratic Party and that's that seems sort of I'm nebulous and kind of intangible but it's also really real that's why then in 2024 Bernie Sanders gives a speech to the Democratic Convention and it now sounds like just a democratic speech yeah right that's

That's a huge victory for him. Another material point, I'm curious for your take on this, is money.

Like, Obama showed that you can raise hundreds of millions of dollars from small donors. Howard Dean showed first, then Obama, then Bernie raises 200 plus million dollars. Chuck Schumer watched that and he was like, whoa. Because Chuck Schumer is like an amoral operator. He's like, wait a minute. So I can hold these big fundraisers for Wall Street and they can write $100,000 checks for

I can raise $15 million for every single one of my Senate candidates just by

Just from people making $50 donations. Because the upper middle class Democrats can do more than just $27 to Bernie Sanders once a month, once every couple months. They can do... When they get angry, they can do $50 to all eight candidates that Chuck Schumer wants them to fund. Kamala Harris has raised, what, $300 million or something? $500 million. An enormous amount of that money is from normal people. And so...

And it doesn't come with any donor obligations either. You don't have to invite them to the Christmas party. You don't have to take a photo or pretend to care about their concerns or actually care about their concerns or whatever. Yeah, exactly. And even here, which is so interesting given what we're talking about with the shift at least tonally, is there's tons of corporate interests represented here. Lee Fong had a great story about it. We were at a

thing the other night. They underrate this whole thing. And there's a big picture of Cori Bush, all kinds of different Congress people. There's a big picture of Cori Bush. And next to it, they were like thanking FedEx and Salesforce and MPAA. And so that stuff is still here despite Democrats talking more populist. And they foolishly got rid of public funding for conventions. And so, you know, the

This is a corporate event. It literally is a corporate event. I mean, the RNC is too, let's be clear. Of course. They both are. Of course. And I think what they're trying to say is all the corporate branding is we are stakeholders here. Yes. Right? And I think where does that actually operate? I think it operates one level below the top line. I'm for X, Y, and Z. The more granular you get,

on any policy, the more those corporate brands that you saw up in those suites, that's where they're watching. Yeah. You mean they're writing these little car bounds and bills that no one's paying attention to, but means everything to them and their bottom line. That's right. And they bank on no one noticing.

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I think we should hear from Trump, maybe. He called into Fox News. Oh, for real? Yeah, I just put a clip. I went ahead and put it in the rundown, Mac, if you want to go ahead and take a listen. Apparently, he was rambling. They literally had to cut him off. That doesn't sound like Donald Trump. They effectively hung up on him. Are you serious? Yeah, that's what I'm hearing. So let's go ahead and put it up. Let me ask you this, sir. There's been a huge appeal and momentum recently.

for women voters. She's trying to pull that the youth vote, the Hispanic vote, the black vote back in her direction. Polls show that she's having some success in that at this point. So what are you going to do? What's your strategy to rebuild the momentum that you had with those voters?

Now, she's not having success. I'm having success. I'm doing great with the Hispanic voters. I'm doing great with black men. I'm doing great with women because women want safety. They want safety. And they don't have safety when they have somebody allowing...

20 million people into our country, many of them very dangerous people. No, it's only in your eyes that they have that, Bartha. We're doing very well in the polls. We're leading in most of the polls. And in the swing states, we're leading in almost every one of them. Mr. President, let me interrupt. The auto workers are voting for me because you're not going to have an auto industry if she gets elected. They're going to all electric cars.

Yeah, so it was basically like that. The report was that he sounded like one of those C-SPAN random callers. Oh, they came in on the independent line. Donald, what did you think? Interrupted to ask. Donald, what did you think? He literally has always told her. He's always sounded like that. Let's pull his truth social feed up. Because he was truthing all throughout. That's not true.

so different from most of his calls to Fox News. - Fair enough, I agree. And actually the reduction in those has probably been a good thing. So let's see. Look, it's crazy Nancy Pelosi. Where's Crooked Joe? There will be a future under Comrade Kamala. - No future under Comrade Harris. - She has led us into a failing nation status. She talks about compassion, doesn't talk about all the people she's allowed into our country. Keep going.

She's done nothing for three and a half years, but talk and what she's doing tonight. She talks about other countries border, nothing about our borders, stands for incompetence and weakness. Our country is being laughed at. Do you guys think he was actually tweeting these? - She caused October 7th. - What does that say? - She caused the attack of October 7th. - So here's how you know he is doing the tweeting. Look at the random capitalization. - Is she talking about me? - Gee, I don't know. - Probably Donald. - It makes sense.

This would be actually a good time to talk about something we haven't fully addressed yet, which is that it does look like RFK Jr. is dropping out tomorrow and endorsing Trump. Let me see Trump. Yeah, let me pull that up. It is here. I can put this into the rundown. Officially, the RFK Jr. campaign has filed paperwork in the state of Arizona. Well, they didn't...

dropping their claim to try to get on the ballot. As withdrawn from the presidential race. Mac, I just put it in the rundown. There we go. Maybe zoom in, click on the image so that people can see. Withdrawn from the presidential race in Arizona. In the state of Arizona. So there'd be no reason to withdraw all the ballots that you connected if it didn't mean that you weren't, at least at the very least, dropping out. What was it? Griffin, yesterday we were watching J.D. on

Jake Tapper. Jake Tapper. Didn't he make a comment about RFK? He was like, I'm not sure if it's going to happen, but of course we would welcome that. We could talk to him about vaccine mandates or something like that. But it's looking more and more. Prediction markets have it at like 88%. Yeah, I mean, it looks like it's happening. And there's been this flirtation going on for a while now, you know, that's been reported out. Yeah.

I don't know how much of a difference he really makes electorally at this point because he was down about 5% in the polls. But it's definitely a, you know, positive development if you're Trump because he was taking, he was serving like a kind of a Jill Stein role for the Republican Party. If you saw Michigan, he, I mean, it would, in my head, RFK was, if Trump lost and he lost in a narrow election, it would have been RFK 100%.

Yeah. If RFK was still in the race. I agree. Because if you looked at Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, he was on the ballot in all the battleground states. Arizona, which he just withdrew out of. These are states he barely won last time around or lost. So to me, I mean, 5%, 5% is a ton on the margin. So I actually would put like RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump to me actually puts it fully back a coin flip because I'm like the margins now are

are so slim for Kamala and it will have to be a full on like battle to the death of get the voters out. You know, turn out as much as humanly possible with your faithful. Whereas with RFK in the race, the Democrats did not have to perform at an A plus level. And I think now that they do. Um,

One thing that I really, that I hate about this is now all the people who always say every third party is just about helping Republicans. Like, they get a lot of ammunition. I'm not happy about it either. Because, I mean, he, yeah, he really claimed like, no, no, I can't stand Trump. He said he didn't do it. I can't stand Biden. I want to defeat both of them, et cetera, et cetera. And, you know, it certainly looks like from the way that his running mate was talking about it, the real, like, ultimate core of this was always, I want to hurt the Democrats.

And so when it came down to it and it was very clear, OK, you're not hurting the Democrats anymore, then, you know, he makes makes the move. And it was it was the right that was nice to him in the beginning. And so he feels some common cause with them or whatever, his own ego. He wants to get some cabinet position, et cetera. And they offered him the best deal. But, yeah, it gives so much credence.

to this talking point that in reality, all of these third party candidates are just, you know, Republican plants trying to hurt the, whoever the Democrat is at the time. You're absolutely right. While we've got the writer of Don't Look Up here, I did want to ask what your thoughts about the pretty much total absence of any climate change. Today's theme was for the future. There was a line in there. They did. Well, they had, um,

They had Deb Haaland on to talk about it. And then Maxwell Frost was talking about it. I don't know if there were other speakers. But other than those two, it's been notably absent. I think the Republicans have done a good job with making the issue almost like, yeah, almost unfortunately like immigration for the Democrats. That

every time the Democrats now talk about it, it gives the Republicans an opportunity to talk about higher energy prices, to talk about, you know, they want to control... Paper straws. Yeah, they want to control the economy. It's true. I do hate the paper straws. They've done a really good job of making it into like

To use a Tim Walz term like a weird issue. Mm-hmm. Yeah, which is really terrifying. Yeah exactly like it takes away the or the Republicans have done a good job of taking of making it as a weapon against the social libertarianism They're gonna control what you know how you use energy while you drive all and I think what's obviously Tragic about that is that the crisis is actually getting worse. It's it is real so

how Democrats can break that is kind of like the biggest political question. - I think it's just up to China. - To just figure it out. - Move to Beijing. - Go and get it. - Move to Beijing. - Let's let them figure it out. - Yeah, I mean, it's really terrifying that there's this huge problem that both parties

don't really wanna talk about it. - Well, the only good news is that I think, I believe between Tim and Trump, we now have two pro-nuclear candidates which are in the race. Tim Walz is pro-nuclear, Trump is endorsed nuclear, we'll see. But I mean, if Elon is there, it's like, it's possibly one of the only good things he would do. - Well, and then RFK Jr., head of the EPA. - Oh no, but RFK's very anti-nuclear, remember? - Yeah, I mean, that's right. - He went off on it, man. - But he's pro, but he's obviously a, he's not a climate denier, he's...

When I interviewed him on...

on environmental issues. He was like, well, yeah, I believe in climate. You guys should go and watch it. It's obviously paraphrasing. It's been a little while. But he was like, well, I believe in it, but I'm not really going to talk about it because I think it turns people off. And then he goes into this whole thing about the free market. The answer is the free market. It's like, what? And I was like, well, why not nuclear? And he was like, well, it's just too dangerous. It's the opportunity economy. It's the most boomer position ever.

It's almost like there's an asteroid headed towards Earth. No one's going to do it. It's a good metaphor. Sure. Emily? I'll start by saying good, not great. Bubbles likely to pop soon and sugar rush could end. All right. Crystal?

I think it's very hard for me to separate, you know, my horror at what's happening in Gaza from this overall convention and direction of the Democratic Party. But...

I think the real star of this ticket is actually Tim Walz in terms of his messaging intelligence and credibility of having a positive, affirmative economic agenda. I think he's a much more effective political actor than Kamala Harris is. And, you know, so my takeaway is that a lot of the most successful foreign

framing and articulation from this convention was courtesy of the way he talks about politics and the way he operates in a political context as well. - Yeah, I mostly concur with Emily. I think it was good, not great. I mean, I think I said C+ earlier. I think that's probably where I stand. I really don't think it was her best,

since she became the candidate. She did certainly throw enough of what she needed to. I think she gave a replacement level speech. It's the political chameleon that we all know and love, I guess, at this point for people who cover politics for a living. But let's not forget that that

is popular, the vibes are still good. People here were really enthusiastic, like almost messianic in the convention hall. And that's probably the single best reason I'm really happy that I was here in Chicago to imbibe that because that's not something that necessarily may come through enough on the screen. But to be within the convention and talk to people and see all the enthusiasm, I'm like, no,

My main takeaway, I keep saying it all tonight, is I'm like, these people are planning to win. I really think they are in it to win it, and I think Republicans should be afraid. You see that from some people who aren't here, who are just like, this is fake. Yeah, they're like, oh, it's fake. I'm like, I wish you were here, bro. No, it's real. It's really not. Yeah.

I was just trying to do the math and it looks like about 11 weeks-ish until the election and many fewer than that until the mail ballots start to go out. So she just has to avoid interviews, avoid press conferences. - She's been doing a great job of that. - She's hung in there so far. It'll be interesting if she can just hold it together. That's her whole thing, she just has to hold it together.

for not much longer. 74 days till election day. It's a wild process. The funny thing is, because she is very...

like people don't feel like they're not seeing, it's not like Biden where he was just like in the basement and we didn't see him at all. And it was notable his absence. Like she feels very present. And so I don't think she's paying any price with the public for, and the media is certainly not like, you know, outrage. And also the media is not even mad. The media is not mad. Yeah. So yeah, I don't think, unfortunately, I don't think she pays any real price for failing to do press conferences, talk to the media, et cetera. Go ahead, David. I guess my only, that's my only,

I think the main takeaway is they have a first do no harm strategy. Yeah. They are implementing it really well tactically. It is frustrating if you want to know more because any more that you would know is a threat of doing harm to the campaign. Right. And I think we should expect that until...

If the bubble bursts or the vibes go bad, they'll have to shift strategies out of a first do no harm. They'll have to take more risks. But until there is a perception that something's gone wrong, this is what it's going to be. It's not broke. Don't fix it. All right. Don't forget, everybody, we have a promotion going on right now. Mac, can we put that graphic, please, up on the screen? We are having a free...

month trial for Breaking Points. So breakingpoints.com. The promo code is DNC free. All right. So here's a question for BP. Would you guys consider doing live panels in the future for the regular show? The energy and the vibe with everyone there is so fun and so is the engagement with the live chat. Crystal? I mean, maybe. I've been having a good time. It is. It's always fun. Especially having Ryan and Emily

like all of us together and of course having the great David Sirota with us as well. Thank you by the way, David. Thank you for coming. Is super fun. I don't, it's like technically complicated to change the way we do the show on a day-to-day basis. But, but,

There's a lot of debates coming up and then election night. - Stay tuned for debate night. - And so we'll be doing obviously lots of this for those events, which is always fun. - And we really missed Crystal all week. - We really did. - That's nice of you guys to lie like that. - As did the friends. - As did the Breakers. - If you're not here, I gotta talk more. - The fans did. - It's a pain in the ass. I'm joking. - We had a very funny encounter with one viewer last night who just was like,

wear the Evers crystal. And she was really old. She was stuck on a plane. Shout out to Enraged Cog, by the way. Yes. Oh, Enraged Cog was at the thing. Good fan. I'm giving her a shout out. We met her in person. Yeah, Enraged Cog was very nice. She was extremely kind and very funny and I love her

Tons of excitement for Dropsite. Tons of excitement for Dropsite. It was a good party. Here's an interesting one that I didn't honestly catch this, but they say, how do you all feel about Kamala messaging as being inevitable when I'm president versus the traditional if you elect me messaging? I think that's normal. The next president of the United States. Yeah, speaking now, the next president of the United States. I would say that's extremely exciting.

Tim Wallace is going to be the best vice president. Yeah, exactly. Well,

What about from Tara Albaran? Will there be a post-DNC bump? What are your estimated guesses on the bump range? Traditional is one to two. I was reading some Nate Silver analysis. It was about one to two points that you usually get out of the convention. It is unfair to Trump. He asked for a refund. He deserves it. It feels like Republicans didn't get a convention. Yeah, it's true. It's like they did their convention. Now, they could have seen that it was coming. Ezra saw it. We saw it. We thought it was going to happen. I went with it.

But go ahead. I went back and read J.D. Vance's speech. It was all about Biden. Yeah. But there were a bunch of right wingers who were saying, stop focusing on Biden. Stop focusing on Biden. So in real time, it was obvious that they were making a tactical mistake. Because I was gone for the wedding. Was that in the discourse at that time? Yeah. Some. Some. Yeah. Like, yeah. I mean, what happened if we want to relive the timeline is, you know, the Trump assassination attempt happens.

It shuts down for just a few days all the discourse about pushing Biden out. And for a minute there, it really did feel like, oh, well, that's it. Now this is over. But it quickly got rekindled while they're doing old. Yeah. While they're doing the RNC, this quickly gets rekindled. And so there was discourse at the time. Like, I frankly was kind of shocked that they were still just focusing on Biden versus, you know, there was a little bit of an attempt to Biden, Harris, Biden, Harris. But yeah.

You can see even now Trump is having trouble shifting to not focusing on Biden, to focusing on Kamala Harris. It has taken him time. He is also an elderly individual. And I think his brain had locked into this one model of the election and has had a very hard time shifting. It still has. Tonight he was truthing.

Where's Crooked Joe? Yeah, that's right. That's right. And he hasn't figured out what the best line of attack with Kamala is. He's kind of all over the place. You know, he workshopped this like, oh, she's not really black thing. That didn't really work. You know, he didn't get the he's expecting the typical liberal freak out. And they just were sort of like rolled their eyes and moved on. The chat is offering $20 if you shotgun the beer.

The beer's gone. Oh. Too late. That's good comment. It's high noon. There's not much left in that crystal can. Should we end it there? Let's do one more. Let's do, yeah, what are we? Well, another thing to remember, by the way, on the sugar high is that we are right, the Dems did their convention so late that we have a week until Labor Day. And a lot of the campaign strategies are to hit the ground running after Labor Day. So their bump and their sugar high will absolutely last another week, no question about it. Okay, let's continue to keep going.

- Oh, here's a good one. What happens after Trump? I've actually been thinking about this a lot. I, for my man JD-- - Is there going to be an after Trump? - For my man JD, it's not gonna be good. I'm really worried about it because what I think will happen is I think that MAGA will turn, Trump has no loyalty, right? So Trump will be like, "It's your fault. "Your childless cat lady bullshit is the reason I lost." Even though it's like, well, hold on a second, dude. Like your name was on the thing. - And you picked him. - And you picked, yeah, so it's like, okay.

And then the other problem is that the right wingers, like the establishment people, they already hate him. People like Lindsey Graham and all these others. And so I think it will be like brutal defenstration that modern politics has seen. Heritage Foundation, Kevin Roberts will be gone. A lot of the people who are alive

line like with all. Oh, I do. I think they'll fire his ass. I mean, it's got to be one of the biggest political fuck ups. They've raised so much money off of it. Yeah. OK, but if you cost Trump the election, he will turn on you. Yeah, that's true. That's true. What I'm saying is there will be a brutal internal civil war, national conservatism and anybody who believes in a child tax credit and all that Ukraine skepticism. You're done.

I don't think so. No, I don't think so. Because I'm so certain they will go full Glenn Young. No. So here's my position on it is we genuinely have absolutely no idea because anything could happen to Donald Trump. Donald Trump to MAGA people could quite literally get martyred. And we were within millimeters of that happening. Like there are all kinds of black swan events that could change what actually and how Trump ends up like before January 6th.

Yeah. Nobody knew January 6th was going to, like, it can go in a lot of directions. I'm speaking on August 22nd, yeah. I mean, you're right. I'm saying current prediction, like my general thing is I think they will come for J.D. and they will try to absolutely destroy him. They will, but Trump has this incredible, like, it's like 30% of Republican voters. They just love Donald Trump. Yeah, but he'll be old and he'll fuck off tomorrow. But it's more than DeSantis, it's more than Nikki Haley, it's more than any other person is able to capture right now as a proportion. And so he will, he's not going anywhere. But that,

See, that's my question is, okay, let's say he loses.

- Is he just gonna run again? - He'll be the godfather. - I agree. - Don't you guys think he'll be the godfather down in Mar-a-Lago? - I think he keeps going. - I have such a hard time envisioning him being like, I'm done seeking power. I'm done with the spotlight. I'm gonna anoint the next person. That's the possibility. - Well, hey, he also could go to jail. - Yeah, he's gonna go to jail. - If he loses, I think there is a, I would bet, I would actually put money that he will spend time in prison.

But what for at that point? That would actually be crazy. I mean, they're all getting thrown out. Well, okay. No, his sentencing is- Georgia? The Georgia case. What happened with the documents one? That's pushed to 2026. And yeah. So there are still things- She threw most of it out, right? There are still things with the January 6th related election interference one that-

my understanding is that are prosecutable even with the Supreme Court's ruling on immunity, but it has to go back through the process and figure out what those things are.

So there may still be something, some there there, that they could go after him for that would carry some decent penalties. And I don't, I have to go back and refresh my memory on where the documents case stands. It's the Bragg case. So the falsifying business records case, that's 34 felony counts. And the sentencing. That's not jail time. That's not going to be jail. The sentencing right now is on September 18th. And this judge, Mershon, despises Donald Trump. So I would really be quite shocked if they put him in prison for that. Nonviolent first time offender.

We'll see. It'll be interesting.

All right. Well, he's violent. He's killed a lot of people. He's a justice impacted person, Ryan. Don't forget that. The lack of that language, by the way, is why I think Democrats are actually trying to play it. They're in it to win. Promo code DNC free breakingpoints.com. Take advantage. This has been a hell of a time. Thank you to all of our premium subscribers because you guys are the reasons that we were able to come out here, see this stuff on the ground, get clips, really experience it. And I personally think that we really benefited from being on the ground here with the entire crew.

literally impossible if it wasn't for all of you. So I guess the next one on these live streams, what? Presidential debate. So it's coming up quick. - Oh, they're coming soon. - I think it's only a couple of weeks. - Early voting is so fun. - Starting in a couple of weeks. - Oh, and shout out to Barstool Sports, by the way. They've been so kind. Eddie, the Dog Walk podcast, they gave us free reign of their studio. Their technical people helped us out. Yeah, free high noon and ghosts. I mean, we really could not ask for more specific, well, maybe we could ask for more ghosts, but.

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