11/5/24: Joe Rogan Endorses Trump, Dumbest Election Predictions
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Hello, everybody. Happy Election Day. It's Tuesday. It's here. It's the morning. It's time for the update. All four of us are in the house, I guess, in our respective houses. We will be in our studio. As a reminder, what is it? We will be doing the live stream at...

what 6 30 p.m eastern time all four of us at the desk and we will go as long as we need to go we're really excited for it and we thought we'd just uh what is it crystal we've got tea leaves we're gonna read some tea leaves yeah all the tea so um we do have a few votes cast in dixville notch new hampshire this is like you know every time election traditions so we'll give you those

Results, you can way overanalyze them as people always do. Yes. We have the very last of like the predictions, like the official, you know, Nate Silver, John Ralston, Larry Sabato. So I'll break that down for you. We've got a little glimpse in the final rallies and a big endorsement on the Trump side, Joe Rogan making it official that he is endorsing Donald Trump. So bring all that to you. Also, because basically, spoiler alert, all of these predictions, like the fancy models just came down to like,

Go either way. I don't know. So we thought we would also take a look at some of the dumber ways that people do election predictions, some of the like tradition superstitions, things like which Halloween mask sells more, what this viral hippo did with the cake, all these sorts of things. So we'll dig into those tea leaves, like real tea leaves as well. And also things that are equally scientific, like Alan Lichtman's keys. Yes. So we can all...

Make of that what we will.

Yeah, it's exciting. As a reminder to everybody, 630 p.m., like I said, we'll be live. Go ahead and sign up breakingpoints.com. You will want to do that because we'll also be taking questions from our subscribers during the stream. But yeah, what's first on deck, Crystal? What do you got? Well, I want to pull out Dixville Notch, but really quick before I do that, Emily and Ryan, you guys, we made you give us predictions like last week, and there's been a bunch of new polls and whatever that dropped since then. Any revisions while I'm getting the Dixville Notch votes pulled up here?

It would be smart to make revisions because then no matter what happens, I could point to one of the different guns. That's true. Giving you that opportunity. That's like Kyle. He made three different maps. I was like, that's not fair. That's smart. No, that's very smart. Ridiculous. Yes. One of my maps has Trump winning and one has Kamala winning. Oh, come on. I'll stick with the Kamala one. All right, Nate Silver. Yeah. Yeah.

How about you, Em? No, I mean, that's basically, it's a cop out, but it's like when you look at the, you go to do the maps, as we've all done, and you're calling certain states, and then you're looking at where the polling averages are in those states, and you're just like, this is insane. I mean, it could, with what you guys have been talking about a lot, in terms of not knowing the direction of the polling error, like we don't even have a good sense. In 2020, it was like, well, they might be underestimating Trump. Like if I had to guess, the polls were probably still underestimating Trump. Yeah.

Do not have that this time around at all so that's where you get these two different versions of the map where you can have like a commo sweep or a Trump sweep or you can have something like what saga predicted which is sort of what I'm leaning towards right now, which is a really really close electoral college battle because

it's split. The results end up being as split as they seemed like they would. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of funny because everybody knows the polls are wrong. Like the polls are, the pollsters are definitely just like hurting the tie. I don't know what to tell you, but we have no idea what direction they're wrong in, which means there's a strong chance that we could expect to not know until like Friday or something, but might actually know tonight. Like there's a strong chance we actually are shocked and are like, Oh wow.

This this thing's over. Well, I don't see them. And we're like, oh, we actually know what happened. I think just to prepare for people like if Kamala. Right. Because the polls close in Georgia at seven and then North Carolina, 730 and then Pennsylvania at eight. If the polls close in Georgia and North Carolina and you can call, we will reminder, we'll have decision desk if decision desk can call those two states together.

know almost immediately and then maybe put a trajectory for her in pennsylvania i'm not going to say it's over but you know the math becomes very difficult for trump similarly you know if trump has big strength in georgia and in north carolina which were two tied states and then shows a lot of potential going into the wee hours of like 1 or 2 a.m they called pa at 2 a.m in 2016

Although everything I've read says it may take a little bit longer. Pennsylvania election workers are not allowed to count ballots until actually, what is it, the start of polls, like on Election Day or whatever. So processing can take a little while. But there is a strong chance we're going to know a lot, you know, tonight. Yeah, I think so. I mean, even last time when it came down to the wire, we really did go to bed pretty much knowing. Yeah, that's right. The way things were going to happen. By 3 a.m., we knew. Yeah, we knew. All right. So here we go. The much anticipated Dixville Notch presidential results.

And guess what, guys? Useless. It's a tie. Harris three, Trump three. Now, if you are a Democrat, you may look at this and go, Dixville Notch has zero registered Democrats. This is four Republicans and two independents. So we're already picking up those Nikki Haley voters and all six of these people voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. If you're a Republican, you look at these and go, Joe Biden,

Yeah, he got a 5-0. Last time around. So, you know, really choose your own adventure with this particular one. So make of it what you will, and I recommend you make nothing of it. Let me go ahead and show you John Ralston's predictions. Now, this made quite a bit of waves. I'm curious in particular what Emily and Zogger have thought about this.

So Ralston is, you know, the guru of early vote in Nevada. His presidential prediction record is actually perfect since he started making these predictions. And the TLDR here is that after he looked at the early vote and what mail ballots he thinks are still outstanding and his historical experience with the effectiveness of the Harry Reid machine,

He is very narrowly predicting a Harris victory, 48.5 percent to Trump's 48.2 percent, which is like a preposterously narrow margin. But, you know, part of what was consequential about this is that the Republicans really felt like this was the place where the early vote numbers were most clearly in their favor. And so I think, you know, there was an expectation that he was probably going to call it for Trump. And instead, he narrowly goes for for Kamala Harris.

Yeah, I mean, well, you know, by his own admission, he's got Kamala there by point three. It's also funny if you read the analysis. He's basically like, yeah, Trump is up. But I'm just going to guess that the read machine knows exactly how many votes that they need to be postmarked.

by Election Day, and I've never bet against the Reed machine, and the Reed machine will turn those folks out, which is kind of a hilarious, almost like mafioso-style analysis of the state. But he's not wrong. I mean, you know, he's called it correctly every single time. He has a perfect record. But he did, of course, leave himself there, where if he is wrong, like let's say Trump wins by 0.6, well, you know, he's got a decent –

out. So last time around, you know, regardless, it does show a much closer election. Joe Biden got 50 percent of the vote, Donald Trump at 47.6. So narrowing the gap there, three. I took a little bit hard in this, even though he did predict a Kamala win, just because this would verify a lot of the Sunbelt strength for Donald Trump that I had included in my map, including with the

Latino vote. So I'm interested to see, you know, which way it goes, because even if he is predicting such a narrow result, that actually would be a sign of strength for the tightness of the polling, particularly in those states, Nevada and Arizona, and not necessarily a large miss. So that was just my general read of it.

And from my perspective, if Ralston does have a bias, it's too much confidence in the Reed machine. And so I've covered Harry Reed for so long. I've also known and interacted with and had a lot of respect for Ralston for like 20 years now or something. And covering Harry Reed, you do get this sense of like, wow, this is an old school machine that like actually knows how to do machine politics. And so you can't...

the question is, do you get carried away with your faith in it after Harry Reid has died? Like, we don't know yet, like, the strength of this machine. So if he's wrong and that from the grave, Harry Reid is not able to run this machine, you know, as effectively as he was, you know, from the earth, then that could make up the couple of points that you're talking about. I,

I'm also sort of curious about, I think Republicans getting really excited about having more registered Republicans turning out in some states where they've been working really hard. I mean, if you, Ryan was at a Trump rally just last night, like they have the, I don't know if they're still doing it, but a month ago, you know, they were doing swamp the vote too big to rig. They were pushing it really hard. And, and,

Part of me wonders if what we're seeing is just really high early voting from suburban women. So Republicans are getting excited about more registered Republican women returning their ballots early or in areas where they expect to do well returning their ballots early. And actually, it was a lot of women who weren't voting for Trump but are registered Republicans. So I don't know if that's the case, but I am curious about that.

If Ann Selzer is even directionally correct, there is some of that going on. Yeah. Because she found Kamala winning something like 10% of Republicans. That would be the theoretical sort of like Nikki Haley voter. And the other thing that is different in Nevada this year versus other years is that they passed a law that automatically registers anyone who goes to the DMV gets a driver's license. And the default is that you're just registered, you know, non-affiliated.

And so Democrats believe a lot of those voters, because they tend to be younger, are their voters. And that's part of what factored into his analysis here, too. But, yeah, I mean, he talks about how this was, you know, maybe the hardest election for him to be able to predict. So I don't think anyone would be surprised if it comes in significantly differently from this. All right. Let me show you this next prediction. This is the Larry Sabato crystal ball. No relation.

And again, this is another I mean, he has it narrowly in favor of Kamala Harris. Basically, this is kind of like, you know, before these campaigns really started and got into full effect. This is kind of what you would predict the map would be. She holds the blue wall. She holds Nevada where they've been consistently winning and Trump takes everything else. And there you go. It's you know, it's narrow, but it's enough.

for her to be able to pull out a win. You guys have any thoughts or reactions to this one? I think it's a very possible map. I was at around this map for a while, and the real reason I bet against it with PA and with North Carolina was some different demographic reasons. But specifically, what this really is is a bet—

on narrow victory in Nevada and then white overperformance with seniors and with college educated voters across the blue wall states while losing the Sun Belt. And I think it's a highly logical map. It's a

bet that I would not feel uncomfortable taking in a scenario for a Harris win. It's also one which was their most plausible path to victory. I listened to an interview that David Plouffe, who was the Obama 2008 campaign manager, gave

And he got pretty specific. He was basically like, look, we believe this is going to be a razor tight election. We are trying to operate in a sense where there is no polling error and we could still be able to drive things out. And we see a scenario where any of the states that we win will be by point six point eight or any of that. So that's basically a bet.

where a Kamala victory, and if in that 0.8 marginal victory scenario, this is what a Kamala victory would most likely look like with no major polling error. A polling error in either direction would just be read across the board for all of them. Ryan, was this your map basically? More or less. I think I had Nevada going to Trump. Yeah, so you had it actually 270, 268, right? Like as narrow as possible. Yeah.

Got it. All right. Let's take a look at Nate Silver. This is very unsatisfying. Yeah. Yeah. It says we ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012. Yeah. So...

I mean, his problem is that he's if it's garbage in garbage out, that's what the simulations are going to produce. That's my thing is like he has been arguing correctly and vociferously online for like these posters are basically just making stuff up. And it's not just the recall to 2020 thing. He was in this whole fight with this economist, Justin Wolfers, who was like, they're taking low quality surveys. Then they look at what the average is and they rig the results to match that average.

But it's like, if you think that's true, then how can you justify feeding this into your model and pretending like you're getting anything approximately, you're going to get the same, like it's 50-50, it's tied that these pollsters are giving. So that's,

You know, that's the part of this is sort of what else is he supposed to do? I was going to say, you go to war with the troops you have. I mean, it's just like, what else can you do? Like, there's no other option. Like, he's got a decent. I mean, he does attempt at scoring like a lot of those hurting ones. I think they get scored less inside. But at a certain point, you know, we only have a few people.

who are out there doing high quality surveys, who are not doing recall to vote and or not hurting. And even then, you know, there's a big question mark in that last New York Times Siena poll. Like they had it. They basically said jump ball in all of the blue wall states where you do have to ask, was that just a hurting thing? Because they don't want to deal with the blowback, you know, in a scenario where Donald Trump overperforms by four or five points or Harris overperforms by four or five.

There's also just, you know, like the more meta questions that we always have to confront about over response bias, about the makeup of the electorate, people who literally are like an entire generation now with no landline. How are they even contactable? So this will look.

The country changes a lot. This is partly a monster of his own making because of the pollster rating that you're talking about. It's based on how close they were to the actual results, which incentivizes if you say it's 50-50, then you're not going to be too far off in any of your directions.

And so partly the you know, I don't they didn't intend to do this, but that was partly the impact. So, you know, that's why I look. Yeah, it's good that he's out there arguing like, look, all these pollsters are just basically making things up. They're hurting. It would be one in nine trillion chance literally that they would be getting the results that they are. But then I think you have to factor in more humility to your own model at the end of the day if you know that the data that's going in is basically fictional. Right.

Right. In other words, vindication for Alan Lichtman and his keys. Right. Alan knows how to turn the keys. Yeah. Also for Mudang. Yeah. We'll get to Mudang. Yeah. And I got into like a famous or infamous argument with Nate Silver back in 2016. And I ended up looking like a fool. But the actual point that I was trying to make is is this one right here. What I said is that, look.

All of the polling models are saying that Hillary Clinton has a 90 plus percent chance of winning. And in the last week, he was artificially pushing his number down to try to hedge for a Trump win because he felt in his gut that there was a chance.

that Trump might actually win. And I said in the piece, I feel like that's true too, that it seems absurd to say that there's a 90 plus percent chance that he's going to win. But you're a polling model guy. Like you're not a pundit. Your job is to follow your own polling model. If you don't want to do that, then go be a pundit and say, this seems silly, but you can't kind of have it both ways. And so I think you're right that it's a, it's a problem of his own creation. Like

He has created this idea that you can put these numbers into this machine and it's going to spit out for you results. But then as human beings, we look at those results and we're like, this doesn't look right. So then what was the whole point of the machine to begin with? That was my point.

I think that's totally fair. And it does get to this whole idea of this is all human. There is no science behind prediction. All of it comes down to human assumptions. And by the way, keep this in mind for AI and for any large data machine or for anything. This is the case for...

for the assumptions that are programmed into these models are what determine the model itself. And that's why people have heard here a lot about it. I actually think it's very vindicating where a lot of people just have a lot more humility around these things and just really, yeah, nobody knows anything. And that's actually fine. It's okay. I mean,

The truth of the matter is that as much as Nate Silver and Alan Lichtman and his keys like fought back and forth, they're actually not doing anything different from one another. They're both just like, you know, they have their own ideas about how to bake in the assumptions and what are the keys to the election. And, you know, if you go into Nate's algorithm, he has things like, you know, the fundamentals and what's the economy and whatever.

Those are all just your assumptions about how those things play into the election. And then because you have this illusion of feeding it into an impartial machine, you come out with what appears like a more scientific result. You're not actually doing anything different than Alan Lichtman is when it comes down to it.

And at least with Lichtman, he puts his thumb on it. He says, it's going to be Kamala Harris. You can check whether he got it right or not in the end. Whereas Nate Silver, whichever way it goes, he can be like, I told you it was 50-50. It could go either way. Right? Yeah, that's funny. All right. So let's go ahead and get to the big news yesterday evening, which is that Joe Rogan. Oh, I have Mudang lined up next. Let's see what's next. Next time.

Well, Mudeng is obviously more famous. Which is that Joe Rogan did. He had Elon Musk on his podcast.

And then he came out and tweeted this official endorsement of Trump. Now, he had had Trump on the podcast. Then he had J.D. Vance on and then he had Elon Musk on. And, of course, Trump's biggest backer. And he says the great and powerful Elon Musk, if it wasn't for him, we'd be effed. He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you'll hear. And I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast.

Emily, let me hear from you on, you know, what do you make of this endorsement and, you know, Rogan's evolution to this position? Because we've tracked some of this. You know, he's previously backed Bernie Sanders, his very left wing positions that he took at some point in the past. But he's clearly made a transition into both his audience and himself being more solidly in the pro Trump right wing space. So what do you make of the significance both from a Rogan evolution and a political electoral impact?

Yeah, well, I mean, Republicans just on the electoral front desperately, desperately need to get low propensity young male voters to turn out. So they're interpreting this as a major gift. Now, will it actually be a major gift? I don't know that a bunch of people are going to turn out to the polls because Joe Rogan literally on the eve of the election, as people had already had their plans in place for the next day and all that good stuff, made his endorsement.

But everything is marginal in this election. So I guess Republicans maybe are clinging to that as some just something that can get young male voters actually to the polls because they're doing better than Republicans have in, I think, decades with young male voters under Trump.

this Trump run. So they really, I mean, that's the worst demographic basically to be doing well with because it's just the lowest turnout slice of the electorate. So maybe this is motivating and animating on that front. On the second question, it's really wild to see

the changes in the MAGA movement post 2020. Because and I know we've all talked about this before, what's happened is a lot of Silicon Valley guys have sort of stepped into the ring and become MAGA. And I don't think this changes

Joe Rogan's, and you guys would know better, but from my perspective, it's not, a lot of people are going to be tempted to see this as mutually exclusive with the Bernie-ism, but there were a lot of voters that kind of had both in their heads too back in 2016 and 2020, like the Trump stuff and the Bernie stuff. And it might not be that Joe Rogan is like fully anti-establishment or is fully non-anti-establishment that now he's pro-billionaire, pro-Trump, pro all of that. He just sees it as the best option

shot at breaking up what the tennis swamp has come to signify and represent. So that is a totally arguable point. But I think just trying to parse his argument on behalf of Trump, it's sort of similar to some other people's. Fundamentally, it's like it's still seen as the best anti-establishment candidate to explode everything in D.C. So that's sort of my initial reaction.

Yeah, I mostly agree with that. I mean, I think it's I mean, look, it's kind of interesting to see it in different directions. In a lot of ways, Joe is actually following the trend, you know, in the podcast demo. Like, it's not a secret, the podcast demographic.

has been trending right wing for like what, three years, maybe four years. Honestly, I think of it. And I think he tweeted something about pop culture. And I think it's a really interesting view into the bifurcated way that we experience pop culture in twenty twenty four, where you have like Internet celebrities, Joe kind of being the king of that, the person, the driver, the new Oprah, quote unquote, you know, for the non mainstream. But then you also have literally Oprah on the same night, you know, giving a speech in favor of

Kamala Harris, you have Hollywood, the celebrity kind of establishment, quote unquote on that side. And then I would also say that, you know, amongst the internet celebrities, I don't think it's a secret, you know, looking around, if you look at the top 20, you know, shows or whatever, uh,

on Apple podcasts, probably 18 out of 20 of them are going to be directionally right wing. So that does tell you something about the audience and about the space in which that that is both permissible. And for a lot of reasons, I actually think it makes perfect sense because, you know, in general, outside of Fox News, like being, quote unquote, right wing is not really acceptable or possible. And so you start your own thing on the Internet. That's also where you can have

Right.

and others who is now literally a Republican calls. She's like, I became a Republican campaigning for Donald Trump, for RFK Jr., who is now endorsed Donald Trump and is urging people to vote for him. So this is like an ideological valence which has been present there for quite a long time. And if anything, he's very late to it because like you said, Emily, you know, 20, I mean, when did it drop? Yeah, 8.45 p.m. last night. So it's not like this is going to be top of mind for

for people who are organizing or anything. It's an interesting cultural like demarcation point to me because it is just like the final apotheosis of what I think a lot of the podcasts, audience, demographic, et cetera, all began with Dave Portnoy in 2015 and secular conservatism kind of crowns itself here today with a Rogan endorsement. Can I just say, like, I don't think this is durable beyond Trump. Like that's another thing. I mean,

Absolutely. Yes, absolutely. I don't know about that because I think it depends. I mean, Rogan loved J.D. Vance.

And yes, but that was the J.D. talking about trans. That was not the Santas. Right. But that's J.D. talking about trans, not J.D. talking about abortion. And that's where things got a little bit testy. Like, I don't know. I mean, I just like Joe's top issues that he talks the most about are like anti woke ism and trans stuff and immigration and stuff.

immigration and like that being anti-vax which there was a funny part of the conversation with elon where they're talking about it's like trump is the person who did operation warp speed and whatever like i understand all of that is right when goaded but it's just a funny funny note so i don't think i really agree with that because i i do i think he and you know most of the people in that ecosystem like they just have pretty conventional republican views at this point

don't think so like what here why did he like Ron DeSantis COVID anti-woke and COVID and woke right but he likes JD because I don't know like because he can articulate like a well conservatism yeah and these are all very different like sort of ideological flavors within the

the Republican movement. So I, you know, yeah, I think that these fears are just like they're just Republican. But I don't see that's that's why I would disagree. For example, put Ron Johnson on there. You think Joe is going to like him? I don't think so. Or what? Ron Johnson's not running for

No, certainly. But whoever I mean, but this is this is kind of like the big thing that goes into this is a conservatism, quote unquote, or Republican Party, which can appeal to the secular, you know, kind of libertarian male is mutually exclusive from a conservatism of Mitch McConnell, Ron Johnson or any of these other folks. I think it's quite clear what is won out under Donald Trump. But the big question is if Donald Trump goes down.

if Trump goes down today at the ballot box, then there's going to be a big fight. And a lot of the strategy will get blamed here. I mean, policy-wise, I just don't see Trump as being really different from the Mitch McConnells of the world or whatever. He wants running around and talking about cutting $2 trillion from the government. He wants to put Mike Pompeo back in the cabinet. There's a stylistic difference, sure. That's a key point, though. But I think what you're missing is that

So we all see that the realignment is happening between the two parties. And one thing that that realignment is going to bring is it's going to turn the Republican Party into a coalition party the way that the Democratic Party previously, you know, for the last 40 years or more has been this party of coalitions.

where the Republican Party was more of kind of a uniform party that had people who had the same interests, same genders, well, not same gender, but same race mostly. In many instances, yes. And right, increasingly so. And so now the Republicans are going to

It's going to be a confusing process for them because I'm like, wait a minute, we don't all actually agree on all of these things, yet we're all part of the same coalition. And so how does the Rogan kind of faction of the coalition fit in with the kind of evangelical faction of the coalition, which agrees on some things but disagrees on others? And that's...

But it doesn't mean you can't put together a party in a two-party system. Yeah, the entire – the tent that holds the GOP together is hating the left and specifically hating ideological leftism in all of its forms. That's the only thing that unites a Tulsi Gabbard and what, like a Tom Cotton, right?

And so that's the key of the Rogan podcast. You know, male demographic is that they hate the left and they hate the higher institutions of culture. And they really give a shit. Crystal, I don't disagree with you when you're talking about policy. Like no matter who is at the head of the Republican Party, that's still going to be the case. Maybe I see again, if if Trump goes down, they're not going out of style anytime soon. Sorry, the.

I can only say inshallah to what you just said, Crystal. But, uh, I, I, I do worry that if, you know, like for example, I think that if Trump goes down big, let's say a Harris landslide, a lot of this podcast, bro energy, like no Republican is going to be courting shit like that ever again. They're going to have to take big lessons away from suburban women. If anything, you're going to see the opposite. You're going to see a lot of these people going on the view and going on Oprah, trying to like beg these ladies to come back and to vote for them. Uh,

I mean, but the other side is that Trump does win big. Then you are going to see a lot more of, you know, you had John Fetterman go on the podcast with Joe. I think you will see, you know, Pete Buttigieg or whoever, you know, didn't Buttigieg just go on what's called Jubilee, right? Like he knows what time it is. He's a smart guy. He can you can see where the trend is going. The future primary, you will have the Gavin Newsom's and all these other people go on Joe. I actually think Gavin would do it.

incredible job on Joe Rogan, which is crazy thing to say, because I know that Joe hates him, but he's a masterful, skilled wordsmith politician. And so this is I'm curious to see how it shakes out entirely dependent on the result of what happens and where things go. I was going to just quickly say on the pop culture point, this it's not silly to remember that the days of like CPAC people like freaking out because they had celebrities and by celebrities, I mean,

Kid Rock. I'm sorry, I mean Ted Nugent. Kid Rock's a bonafide celebrity, but I mean like washed up Ted Nugent and Kelsey Grammer or something like that, right? And so it's just looking back to 2016 and looking now, everything is shattered. It feels as though monoculture, I think we all know this, is completely shattering. And what that's meant is more

mainstream people, like more people in the quote unquote mainstream, because the mainstream is just bigger. And that has meant some inroads for Republicans with popular in popular popular culture. But does that translate outside of Trump and J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate? I don't know. Maybe it does. I think it was a kind of interesting conversation. My point is just like, I don't think that the

whether politicians... This election will really be a verdict on if in the near term Republican politicians once again kind of bet the farm on the brosphere podcast world. Yes, that's right. I do not think the brosphere podcast world is going back to being like...

dem or lib curious. Oh, definitely not. That's what I'm saying. They're just Republicans now. Their views fit very neatly into the broader Republican coalition. And I don't see that changing. To me, the Rogan endorsement is like the final, you know, it's like the crown jewel of Trump's

bro podcast strategy coming on the night before the election. And, you know, and so it will be the election will in some ways be a real verdict on how ultimately consequential that strategy was. Absolutely. Maybe this is one of the reasons I'm laying the groundwork for if there's a big Trump loss is a lot of and people should remember this look like anti establishment is not always loved by people who like the establishment. In fact, there's

There's a lot of women and people out there who if you ever showed them, you know, a comedy set of Andrew Schultz or a Theo Vaughn or of Rogan or any of these others or Tony Hinchcliffe, they would really hate it. And so that's a question, too, about who those people are, the people who love Oprah or The View or The Today Show or Good Morning America. Those people vote, you know, possibly just as much. So it was a big risk. I mean, it was a titanic risk, really, to bet the bet.

the farm on this but i guess the question too is and you're not wrong crystal there'll be republicans but there's also an energy level to this like for example kumaru usman who is one of the greatest fighters in the ufc came out and endorsed donald trump i just don't really see him ever doing that for a glenn yunkin or or maybe even honestly like a jd vance like yeah or jake paul

or Logan Paul, or I mean, I'm trying to think all the bodybuilders, you know, that I follow on Instagram. Trump is a deeply unique cultural figure in a way that is like, like psychologically very different than a lot of these other folks. Dana White, you know, look at his, him and his friendship with Donald Trump was a huge engine, you know, behind a

a lot of this. In fact, if it does work out, Dana will be probably more responsible for this than anyone else. Him, his friendship with Donald Trump Jr. and his ability, you know, Joe even said on his podcast with Trump, the number one reason he's doing this is because of Dana White. Will Dana White go to bat?

for traditional or even like whatever comes next after Trump? I'm not so sure, to be honest. I don't really think so. And so that's why Trump is just such he's so, so unique in his ability. So will they always be right wing? Will they always hate the left? Absolutely. But will they be as galvanized as united, you know, around Trump? I don't think so. Not in the current way. What's

These guys loved Ron DeSantis five seconds ago. Yeah, yes and no. It's not like there aren't other Republican figures out there that they're also really excited about. It's just my point. But DeSantis also, let's be honest, the guy kind of sucks, right? So it's like when you get reality, DeSantis is like what it is compared to Trump. That's a whole other ballgame. Yeah. And one other point that might be obvious, but I think worth making before we move on, and I have a section of this in my book on the squad, about the moment when

uh rogan endorsed bernie sanders uh in that weird interview with barry weiss yeah i'm voting for him he's been consistent he's he's and like lays out like the reason he loves bernie sanders the the reaction from the democratic party kind of set a course that we're on today like that was a moment of agency where a a different kind of party in a different moment less kind of consumed by identity politics at the time

could have embraced Joe Rogan and his entire coalition at that time and said, we don't agree with everything that Rogan believes, but he agrees with us 80% of the time. So we're bringing him in and we're going to build a coalition here. And if you even have half the bro sphere, like the Democrats are,

have an extra couple point advantage long term. The long term trajectory of losing young men is going to add up over the years and it all goes back to this deeply emotional moment. Rogan said, I'm never getting involved in politics again. I think a lot of his

Like hostility towards wokeism was ramped up in that moment. Yeah. And then gasoline still fuels his politics today. Right. And then gasoline poured on that by COVID. I don't disagree. I think that's totally right. I'm not so much –

I don't know if there was much you could do about it, to be honest. Might be inevitable. Because we're talking about way bigger cultural shifts that have happened in the commanding heights of culture than just Rogan or not. That's why I meant in terms of he's following the trend by coming in this late. Everyone else is just pro-Trump.

like Patrick Bet-David and all these other guys. These guys have built massive channels. I mean, think about it. Like in terms of how big they are relative to even four years ago of how gigantic the trend has come. So, you know, that's why it makes sense logically to me because the milieu that Rogan is swimming in of UFC and all these people have been wearing MAGA hats for three years, sometimes 10 years, you know, in case of like Dana White. So I don't know.

I'm not so sure that there was anything to be done about this. I think way more of it has to do with just mainstream media, with the broader like culture and with everything. So, yeah, I don't know. Clearly, we have a lot to say about it. Yeah. And this will be I think this will be one of the conversations that will continue, you know, kind of.

will be shaped by what happens tonight for sure when we see how successful this strategy ends up being. I can just show you guys if you want. I've got the Trump reaction to learning that Joe Rogan endorsed him from last night. I think this was at – was this at his final rally? I'm not sure. It wasn't Grand Rapids. It was the one before. The one before. Okay. Oh, and Ryan went to one of Trump's rallies yesterday. Just quickly, Ryan, give us a vibe check on –

on how the rally was. So it was pretty low energy and Trump didn't really rile folks up. But, you know, it's in Redding, Pennsylvania. He had been in Redding a month earlier. He was in nearby Allentown like a week earlier. If you're a Trump supporter and you want to see Trump, like you've had scores like maybe 100 plus chances in the Redding area to see him over the last nine years.

So I don't want to discount his potential just based on that. But yeah, it was a bunch of old people who'd been sitting there for four hours waiting for him. And so it's not surprising that they couldn't get whipped up into too much of a frenzy. The energy was frenzy. It may not even be advisable.

He rocked out to YMCA and he did the whole show. He did his dance. Yeah. Okay, let's take a listen to Trump learning on stage that Rogan endorsed him. Oh, wow. I have some more big news, Megan. I'm just getting this right now. So somebody that's very, very respected asked me to do his show two weeks ago and I said, why not? And to me, it's very big because he's...

The biggest there is, I guess, in that world by far. Somebody said the biggest beyond anybody in a long time. And his name is Joe Rogan. And he's never done this before. And it just came over the wires that Joe Rogan just endorsed me. Is that right? Thank you, Joe. That's so nice. And he doesn't do that. He doesn't do that stuff. And he tends to be a little bit more liberal than some of the people in this room. No, I had a lot of fun and

He was amazing. And he was it was a three hour interview. In fact, I was two hours late for a rally that we had. I had explained that a little bit and it was cold out that night. We flew and I thought we had to make it. We were two more than two hours late.

And they understood. I said, you know, I was interviewed by a very interesting guy and he just kept going on. They called it a long form and it could have gone a lot longer, but he was great. And he's not a person that does endorsements, but he did an endorsement. So I just want to thank Joe Rogan. That's fantastic. There you go. Ryan, one thing I saw a couple of people who were at like reporters who are at Trump rallies detecting a bit of a wistful reaction.

Obviously, this could be very likely were the last Trump rallies that we'll ever see, which is kind of the end of a very specific and very tumultuous era in American politics. Did you pick up on any of that? Yes. I mean, yeah, he was wistful. He's like, you know, guys, we've been doing this for nine years now. Think about that. I think he counted something like 900 rallies. Wow. And he said,

You know, and his quip there was he's like, and I've always been, you know, very well behaved. Once or twice, I may have made a slightly aggressive statement. And the fake news media has called me out on it. But in general, I've been perfect. They've been perfect rallies. It's true. Perfect rallies, perfect phone calls, perfect statements. That's all he does. And then he said, you know, this is not an end. It's a beginning. And we'll be back, but we'll be talking about

you know, our achievements and what we've, what we've accomplished and people in the crowd are yelling out, well, you know, we'll see you at the inauguration. So yeah, the waterworks were flowing and reading, no doubt about it. Gotcha. All right. Well, Trump was not the only one receiving a big Joe endorsement. Yes. Kamala Harris also receiving the endorsement of fat Joe, actually, who I believe

is Puerto Rican and spoke about the Tony Hinchcliffe comments and made an appeal specifically to Latino voters. Let's take a listen to that. I really want you to feel the moment. I am a sucker for a good laugh. I'm the guy they throw out the movie theater because the movie's too funny and I'm making too much noise. I'm the guy that you can roast me in the comedy club and I will laugh with you all the way out. The other day in Madison Square Garden,

That was no joke, ladies and gentlemen. That was no joke. And it was filled with so much hate. Hatred of Jewish people. Hatred of black people. Garving watermelons. Calling Puerto Rico an island of garbage. My Latinos, where is your pride? So you get a sense of that. I will tell, I mean, this is kind of, you know, contrast to the Republican closing strategy campaign

Democrats genuinely feel that the Madison Square Garden rally was a bit of a turning point in terms of late breaking voters going for them, Latino voters in particular, but voters in general. There is significant, decent amount of data that says for whatever reason, late breaking voters do seem to be going more for Kamala Harris. We'll find out tonight how true that ultimately is. I texted our friend Chuck Rocha yesterday to say, you know, this is

It's a real thing. And he was like, 100 percent. This is definitely a real thing. And the sense was it was kind of like a final straw for voters, reminding them of some of the worst parts of Trump, blah, blah, blah. So they're leaning in hard to to this final strategy and reminding people of some of the more noxious or toxic traits of Trump that have made him unpopular over the years.

Yeah, and anecdotally, for whatever this is worth, my stepmother and sister were in, voted in Allentown yesterday and said that, like, it was mostly Puerto Ricans in line waiting to vote. Huh.

It's a heavy Puerto Rican population, Ryan. It would be probably a third Puerto Rican, like, normally anyway. It's, you know, 60% population roughly in Allentown. You know, but are they showing up late and deciding to vote because of this? Like, the Democrats certainly think that

it that it has gotten some people to vote who otherwise would not have voted like it's not as if they were like trump and now they're kamala um or they were like on the fence and now they're kamala it was like they were they were the classic voter of the choice is not who you're going to vote for is whether or not you actually decide to vote now they have a reason to it's the vote or the couch that would actually make more sense to me than like people who are swishing right who was the guy that we put was it like

I forget there was the artist who had already endorsed Trump. And he's like, now I cannot stand with. I'm just like, bro, shut, shut the fuck up. You know, it's like, you know exactly what you're getting into first time around. I don't remember what his name is. Um, I think his name was Nikki J. Nikki Jam. Yeah. Nikki Jam. Nikki Jam. That's right. Yeah. I apologize. But it's like, bro, like, I'm sorry. Zero respect. Uh, yeah. For that idea of somebody who, uh,

was not voting and then decided to vote, that makes actually a little bit more sense to me in terms of the overall turnout. But you know, part of the reason why I'm just so skeptical of all of this is I just feel like if Kamala wins is going to come down to a huge polling error like we see with the Iowa Seltzer poll and

the vast majority of it will be abortion right um and you know in the scenario even where she does win in the blue wall like it's not like there's a ton of puerto ricans who live in michigan and wisconsin like it's going to be white women who really push you over the edge now man you know look it's highly possible white ladies get very offended by this like i was talking about earlier um no i mean like statistically the most likely to get offended by it yeah definitely and so

That is the way I would kind of look at it. But that's where Trump's affect and character and all this stuff where these people were probably just voting anyways and couldn't wait to go and to vote against him. So we'll see. I don't know. I'm I'm still curious.

Okay, guys, so we took you through the supposedly scientific election prediction models, but the reality is they all are just like, it's a toss-up, it's 50-50. So we thought we would give you some of the less scientific election prediction models that don't even have a semblance of a near of anything real to them, but people still look at them and some of them have pretty good track records. So we'll start with this one. There was a panda, sorry, not a panda, a hippo.

that became very famous. I was not actually familiar with this. You just misspecied this. Yeah. Crap it.

I was actually not familiar with this baby hippo. With Mudang? Yeah, with Mudang. Mudang is very popular. But she's apparently very popular. And they had her pick from two cakes. One that said Kamala Harris and the other that said Donald Trump. And drumroll please, Mudang went for the Trump cake. Now I have seen the conventional wisdom of

is that that would indicate a Trump win. However, I have seen the contrarian take. Eating the Trump cake, what she's really signaling is she wants to eat the rich and she's actually a secret Kamala Harris fan. Yeah, very possible. What did they say there? That the conspiracy is that there was a bigger piece of dragon fruit that was on the cake and that's why. Oh, so they rigged it. It was rigged.

It's certainly possible. Listen, if you've ever been to Thailand, dragon fruit is the shit whenever it is fresh. So yeah, shout out to Mudang. I have no disrespect for choosing that cake. It was funny though. This one I've seen go viral everywhere. Now Ryan asked what Mudang's record was before we did this segment. And I was like, well, Mudang's a baby. She's four months old, I think. So she's perfect. She's never gotten it wrong. What's Mudang's record?

Yeah, that's Mu Dang's record.

and who ultimately took the White House. So actually, in the last Commander's home game, it was against the Bears, and I don't know if you guys saw, even as not a big sports person, I saw this unbelievable touchdown pass, crazy Hail Mary, the clocks expired, et cetera, to launch them to a victory over the Bears. However, there's a catch, which is that apparently they have recently revised

the Redskins rule to be the Redskins rule 2.0 because it like stopped being predictive sometime in the 2000s. They were like, actually now it's flipped. And if the Redskins win, then the party in power is going to lose.

So I sort of rate this one a top of toss up at this point. Okay. Yeah. I don't even know what to say about that. You could also read it as 50 50 because the bears had basically won the game up until the very last second, whenever they threw the hail Mary. So yeah, I don't know. It could be that. That could be it. We could look back at that and say, you know what, that actually perfectly predicted what we're going to see on election day. Um,

This one I had heard about before. There's this monogram shop in East Hampton, New York that sells of the different presidential contenders. Wow.

And so they look at like which candidate sells the most cups and then that's supposed to be predictive. I don't actually have what the record here of how accurate this has been. I think it's been decently accurate, though. And they found that the Harris cups have been outselling the Trump cups pretty significantly. Most recently. Oh, this is this. Yeah, this is the monogram. East Hampton.

I was going to say, isn't this like one of the wealthiest neighborhoods like in New York? Isn't this like Long Island? You don't think that this is extremely predictive, Sagar? Like, I dare you. I dare you. Do you even know how to turn the keys? That's like going to Nantucket and being like, oh, the Nantucket gift shop is going big for Kamala. I'm like, wow, really? I have no idea. I think they predicted Trump over Hillary, I think, in 2016.

So how many of those people are buying Trump as a lark? See, that's the other problem with Trump. Trump is like a memeable figure. We're about to get to Halloween masks, right? Where? Yes. So this is another interesting one because so traditionally the Halloween mask predictor is which candidate sells more Halloween masks from Spirit Halloween. Like who how many people buy which candidates masks? I couldn't find that data this year, even though I've seen it every other election.

But the number one costume was apparently the crazy cat lady costume. Yeah. That tracks. So what do we make? Is that a pro-Kamala? I think Kamala was nominated too late to get those masks shipped from China. Yeah, good point. Oh, yeah.

That probably is what happened, right? The cat lady thing has hit in a degree which is like insane to me. So like in my neighborhood here, there's literally the lady two doors down has a childless cat lady for Kamala sign in her window. And our local cat cafe is selling merch that's like childless cat ladies for Kamala Harris. Taylor Swift referenced it in her endorsement. Taylor Swift references it in her endorsement. So did Jennifer Aniston. There's a lot you could say about that, but yeah.

It certainly hit. I'll just put it that way. So you would say that's a pro-Kamala sign because I was going to give that a toss-up because it's a little ambiguous. No, no. It's pro-Kamala. This is it. There you go. We have consensus here? Yeah.

I can combine the last two. I think it's pro-Kamala. I think that's a positive sign for Kamala. I was on a flight about a month ago and there was a woman who seemed absolutely bananas while the flight was delayed and she started doing her workouts. She was elderly. She started doing her workouts at the gate, full lunging, all kinds of stuff, just going for it. She was wearing a childless cat ladies for Kamala shirt. Love that. And I was like, "I don't know what's going on here." Get on the flight.

She's in first class. She was in first class. So you combine the two of them. Yes. East Hampton, Proudless Catlady. It all adds up. It's a landslide. All right. Next one, we've got the S&P 500 Index.

And if it's they say if it's up between August and November, incumbent parties likely to keep the White House. This one is a good metric for Kamala. However, candidate height, which was indicative in 18 of the last 24 elections, would indicate a Trump landslide because Kamala is actually quite. Yeah, she's short, short. She's five foot four. And what is Trump's legs? Six, six, three, five, four. Yeah, well, short for a large Emily. That's actually average.

I think she would be our shortest president now. Yeah. I think that might be

That might be right. James Monroe was like James Monroe was like five, four. So she might be slightly taller than Monroe. They talked about the Redskins rule here, but then they also talk about this bakery buskin bakery in Ohio that's predicted almost every presidential election correctly since 84 through cookie sales. Can you guys tell how much research I've put in? Yes. And they have Trump way up. But a confounding variable, I have to say, is that Elon did tweet about this bakery.

And so on Monday, the cookie count was roughly 11,000 for Harris and roughly 30,000 for Trump. So landslide for Trump in that particular count. All right.

It does show that Elon translates IRL. There you go. That could mean something. Translates to cookie sales. I guess that's true. Okay, this is an interesting one. This one actually might be somewhat interesting to look at. This is the stock performance of the DJT, like the True Social stock.

And when Trump was at his most confident, it was very high. Then there was a period of decline. But there has been a rebound recently since.

So, you know, again, I feel like this is a little bit of an ambiguous indicator of what could potentially happen on Election Day, but could reflect how people genuinely think about, like, you know, how are things going to go for Trump here on the election? Yeah, definitely. People have been looking at that as like inverse for how things are going to go. At the same time, didn't Jim Cramer say that there's been some pro-Harris trading?

that's been happening. But then there's also inverse Kramer where you're like, Oh no, that's really bad for Kamala Harris. I'm glad you brought that up because here we go. Jim Kramer says marketing action anticipates a Harris win, which is devastating for her in my opinion. Yes, there you go. Inverse Kramer, never bet against it. And the last one I have for you guys is, um, the Alan Lichtman. Yep. The keys.

He turned the keys. He says that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. So, you know, he likes to tout his track record. They say correctly predicted nine of last 10. I think he claims he predicted all of the last 10, but some of them was like, oh, I got the popular vote right, but not the electoral. Something like he's got some hope around some of these. Which one did he miss then? But he did call Trump in 2016, right? He did call Trump in 2016. Yes. I'm not sure which one he missed. 2000 maybe? That's the one he...

I think it might be 2000 that he called for Gore, which was correct. Gore did win. But yeah, I think it might be that one. I'm willing to give him that one. I feel like this should be single elimination. You don't get to say you've got nine out of ten. Yeah. Because it's once every four years you've got one job. Right. You miss one, you're done. That's right. Yeah, I agree with you 100%. So there you go, guys.

So the hippo better take notes. That's right. It could be one and done for her, man. What's the lifespan of a hippo? Like 200 years or something. It was funny because when I was researching these yesterday, a lot of things came up in 2016 that no one ever talked about again. Like there was some prophet monkey or something like that.

And you never heard of it again because I guess it got it wrong. And to your point, Ryan, like you can't. Single elimination. You can't get it wrong. And especially that particular election, that was your time to shine and go against conventional wisdom. And if you're the profit monkey and you picked Hillary, like, sorry, that's it. All right. Euthanasia. So, guys, we'll be doing live stream tonight, 630. We'll be there till I don't know when. Yeah.

It's going to be fun. And we've got Logan's going to be in the studio. We've got the Decision Desk HQ data. They usually are the fastest with updates and calls. They're really excited to have that resource available to us. And, of course, we will all be there trying to figure out what the hell is going on and what the world's going to look like tomorrow. It's exciting. We'll see you guys then. Indeed. Enjoy the day, y'all. Bye.