11/11/24: Trump Bans Nikki Haley From Admin, Tucker Rages On McConnell Coup, The View Blames Kamala Loss On Racism, Trans 2024 Importance Debate
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Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that, let's get to the show.

Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed, we do. Lots of big developments. We're going to take a look at some of the Trump cabinet picks, which are coming into view. In fact, we just got some updates last evening that we can share with you. And Sawgirl spent some time breaking down some of these fights within...

The Republican Party. Yeah, he can explain to me and everybody else what exactly is going on there. We also have some election updates, where the Senate finally landed, where things are with regard to the House, and some interesting media reaction that we can talk about as well. Big fight breaking out between Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi. She fired shots at him. He's taken some shots back. So we'll break all of that down and what it could mean for the future of the Democratic Party. We're going to break down this

pogrom hoax, sorry, that's what it is, that is unfolded in Amsterdam, the way the media reacted, the truth of what actually unfolded, give you all of those details. And also some deeply disturbing new statistics released from the UN that reveal at least 70%

of those who have been killed in Gaza by the IDF were women and children. So we'll show you those numbers. Soccer's going to take a look at the media and how this election unfolded and what it means going forward. And I'm going to take a look at the Pod Save Bros revealing Biden had polling internally that said he was on track to lose 100 electoral college votes.

At a time when him and his aides were still insisting that he was the best possible candidate that Democrats could put forward. What it says about the Democratic Party and also the indications that, you know, as poor as this election went for them, things could get a lot worse. If they don't change course, things could get a hell of a lot worse for them. So that's what I'm taking a look at. I'm excited to hear that.

I'm sure you are. It's just what a beautiful statistic, 400 electoral votes. Unbelievable. Before we get to that, just thank you so much to all of our premium subscribers. You guys made our election night possible. I mean, we had Logan here. We had our partnership with Decision Desk HQ, and we're still going to be utilizing some of that in the show. And it was really amazing just to not be able to provide full coverage, but also just see the way that you guys reacted to it. A big part of my monologue is actually about how many Americans, hundreds of millions,

Tens of millions of people spent their night on election night, not just with us, but with other people online. And it was the lowest ratings ever for election night in mainstream media. That is literally possible because of people like you. It was our biggest week literally ever in the history of the show, downloads, views, and all of that. So just thank you to all of you. And we've got, don't worry, we still got big things planned. 2026 is not yet upon us. I'm joking, I'm joking.

We'll get there. We'll get there in terms of 2026. No, I actually think that it'll be an interesting year if we think back to it. You know, it may be some of the most policy-focused shows ever been. If we think back to the first year of the Biden administration, we spent a lot of time talking about BBB, about

COVID, vaccine mandates, et cetera. This really is traditionally the first hundred days and the first year is the real time when any of the landmark stuff usually does get passed. It happened in 2017 with Donald Trump. So if you like policy gear up, we'll definitely have a lot, you know, we'll have a lot more room. We'll have time.

We can bring in some analysts and some other people and really dig into it. So I'm excited about that for the next year. So sign up, breakingpoints.com if you want. It's going to be a very different show, but a good show. We'll stick with the news. And in some ways, honestly, that's what I prefer to talk about anyways. It's not just the damn elections all the time. So I'm excited. Yeah, the horse race definitely sucks up a lot of oxygen. And listen, I mean, one thing you can say about Trump, he certainly creates a lot of intrigue. He will create a lot of con. I'm sure. I have no doubt.

There will not be a dearth of things for us to discuss here and get into. Already the show is too damn full, so that's where we're at. Okay, let's start with the Trump personnel and how the transition and the cabinet is beginning to shape up. So we're starting to get some interesting signals. Put this up there on the screen. This is hands down the most important one from Donald Trump. He says, quote, I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

So obviously those are two of the most prominent neocons who previously worked in the Trump administration, who had not yet, I guess, denounced Donald Trump. There were many other much worse ones, people like John Bolton, Jim Madison. Yeah, we already knew Bolton wasn't coming back.

Bolton's not coming back. Who did he? I think he wrote in John McCain or something like that for president, according to him in his latest CNN interview. He wrote in someone who was deceased? I think he might have. It was either McCain or Paul Ryan or something like that. It was ridiculous. I think Paul Ryan.

Oh, no, sorry. I'm thinking of Jonah Goldberg, who wrote Paul Ryan. Very serious political intellectuals. I love that. Everyone should definitely spend their time listening to. Anyways, so this is important because this was a big fight in turn of the transition. There was a lot that was a lot of ammunition. Against Haley, it was a lot easier because there's quite a bit of bad blood inside the Trump team over Haley in that last week of the campaign where she denounced her. I don't think anyone really expected her.

her to be in there, right? They didn't, but it was one of those where I honestly think she might have had a chance if she had not gone on TV the week before to criticize the campaign over MSG and to very publicly kind of make a bet that she thought that the campaign was going to fail. Because there's no reason to do that unless you thought that the campaign was going to lose.

if you did genuinely have a concern, you'd pick up the phone. Pompeo is honestly, that shows a real victory, I think, for the online right in particular, because there was a very coordinated campaign by a lot of the MAGA, America First types online who were like, Mike Pompeo cannot be

picked. He's somebody who he never like, he never went as far as Haley. He had little signals that he would give about how he didn't necessarily support Trump, but he attended the rallies. Trump shouted him out previously. Ben Shapiro actually gave an interview a couple of weeks ago. He's like, I have absolute assurance Mike Pompeo will be in the next

administration. So that is the most high profile like pick off for the neocons. I don't want to get too carried away. There's still quite a bit of people that need to get picked and we're going to get into some of this. But in terms of the most influential positions, I think we say relative confidence. These people not only are not going to be back in the admin, but being a neocon specifically very, very, very hawkish on the outer bounds on Ukraine, that is going to be a bit of a problem for you. So that's one thing we can say with relative confidence.

Let's move on to the next one. This was an interesting choice and announcement as well. This was the first one on November 7th, so A2 please, we'll put it up there on the screen. Trump announced that Susie Wiles will be appointed the White House Chief of Staff. So Susie Wiles is very much like a kind of a non-ideological, just like campaign operative

She has an interesting history, actually. So she ran the Trump Florida operation in 2016. Then she joined Ron DeSantis' campaign in 2018. But then DeSantis fired her and kind of made it, created a jihad against Susie Wiles.

- What was that over? I sort of forgot the details. - I don't remember the exact details. I think there was a lot of beef around the narrow margin of victory for his campaign and whether Trump was, whatever. There's a lot of personalities involved here. And so the point is is that after DeSantis jettisoned Wiles from his campaign, she then decided to go and join the Trump side. And Trump obviously, she worked for Trump back in 2020. And then from that point forward, she also had a real jihad against Ron DeSantis, her former boss.

And so there's quite a bit of beef and stuff like that behind that. I would not read all that much into this in terms of ideology. From those who I have spoken to, Susie Wiles is a person who is very much a behind-the-scenes hatchet person in terms of execution. So you're like, hey, I want this to be done. She'd be like, okay, Mr. President, sounds good. That's generally what it seems to be. She doesn't really bring a lot of her own thoughts

to the table. She's very much just like an organized, like make sure the flow chart and all that other stuff is working. That's how she appeared to operate on the campaign. And by all accounts, she has good rapport with Trump enough to be like, hey, you need to cut some of this shit out. Now, we're also talking about Donald Trump, so it's not like anybody can control him.

him. But people around him are very happy with that choice. They've got a good rapport from the successful campaign. Some of you may have seen Susie on the election night around like two or three in the morning. He was like, Susie, come up here, come take the mic. And she was like, no, I'm not taking the mic. She was like, let Chris, Chris Lasavita, the other campaign manager, take the mic. I mean, this is a very like, you know, standard longtime GOP apparatchik. Yeah, exactly. Worked for Bush, worked for what, McCain? Yes.

She, you know, is a corporate lobbyist, a bunch of like pharma clients, etc. So that's, you know, she comes from a very establishment GOP background. I was just looking up what caused the split with her and DeSantis.

It says they began to fracture because the speculation ranges from her taking too much credit for DeSantis' victory. That would be a big problem for Trump. Speaking too freely to reporters. And another concern, she was too close to her former client, Rick Scott. And then I think apparently she also didn't get along with Casey DeSantis and his chief of staff. So there were just some like interpersonal issues there as well. So anyway, that seems to be the cause of...

Whatever that is. With her and DeSantis, yeah. I mean, as I'm looking at all these Trump cabinet and personnel picks or whatever, one of the things I'm thinking about is

How many of these people are going to end up, like, denouncing him, leaving the White House, like, joining the, you know, anti-Trump side? She seems like one that could be possible just because she is such a kind of, like, standard GOP figure. If—only if he humiliates her, which, by the way, is very possible. I would not say— He would never do that. I think it's—

I think it's doubtful. The only reason I say that. She's already rode the campaign. The only thing I, the only reason I say that is because we can queue up this, Satin will come back to the element before this, the A2B. But apparently she's telling people like she's going to keep the clown car away from Trump or whatever. It's like, good luck. You know, how many people, how many people have thought they were going to be able to control this person, keep them on the rails, keep them from doing the most insane things? Like that's.

That's not going to happen. So I still think that there are a lot of people who delude themselves into thinking that if they're there, they can, you know, keep things headed in whatever direction they think is productive. Here's Laura Ingram. This is a three, I think, talking to Tulsi Gabbard about those comments from Susie Wiles. Congratulations to Susie Wiles. She is fantastic. I've so enjoyed working with her. She is a straight shooter and and I'm looking forward to seeing her as chief of staff.

Well, she's her source was close quoted as saying the clown show is basically not going to have access to the Oval Office. Essentially, I'm paraphrasing. But the word the words clown show was used. Is that a good thing?

Yeah, you know, she works very well with President Trump. I think she is of great credit to winning this campaign and being able to make sure that the train didn't go off the rails. And so, you know, I think she's going to do a fantastic job as White House chief of staff. President Trump seeks counsel from those that he wants to.

But Susie Wiles will provide great leadership on his behalf. I have to think that those comments are specifically about people like Laura Loomer. Well, not just Laura. There was a fight that she waged to try to keep Laura Loomer or to remove Laura Loomer from the Trump orbit. It does appear that she was successful. After Laura made it on the plane, she was able to offload her from the plane. Now, who knows what's going to happen.

how that will work out. Look, I tend to agree. Trump is a figure who is on the phone basically all day long to whoever he wants. And when he wants something, and especially whenever he feels like his advisors are keeping him from something, it's almost like childlike where he's like, well, and then I need to see that person.

person. I need to elevate that person. I need to get them in here to the White House. I really saw this in the latter days during Stop the Steal when a lot of his advisors would not give him what he wants. Then he was like, okay, I'm just going to invite them privately or through the campaign. And they would end up in the Oval Office, you know, like a lot of these crackpots.

who eventually pled guilty were literally in the oval with Donald Trump. Sidney Powell, Mike Lindell, et cetera. Yeah, and despite the efforts of the White House counsel, Pat Cipollone, who tried desperately to keep them out. So in general, Trump is, look, he's a seven-year-old man. He's gonna do whatever he wants to do. I guess the real question is how much interest that Trump even has on policy, because if he doesn't have as much interest on policy and he just leaves it to Susie Wiles and the people who he appoints, honestly, it could be a good thing.

But the other side of that is that if he does decide to intervene, it can really throw an entire wrench into the process. So look, it very much remains to be seen. Continuing on the personnel front, let's go to the next one. A to B, please. Trump has offered Elise Stefanik the job as US ambassador to the United Nations. Yeah, I mean, look, it's a coalition party, Crystal. And pro-Israel is definitely a mute part of the coalition. I mean, that's-

That's the thing is she won this position by being the chief instigator of the campus anti-Semitic like- Yes, the freak out. The freak out, yes. Which makes her one of the most woke people in the coalition actually, worried about microaggressions, wanting safe spaces for these students. But I mean, it says a lot that the chief qualified-

qualification she has here is that she stoked this whole anti-Semitic panic thing and is super pro-Israel. And I'm sure she'll be there at the UN to give lots of cover to Netanyahu and back him up. So basically, Israel now has two UN representatives. Of course, they already do. They already do. But in this case, I mean, look, there's good and there's bad.

good is, UN ambassador is one of the dumbest jobs in the entire United States government. You're technically part of the cabinet, but you know, whatever. You live in New York, you get to live in some fancy thing. And what's the only thing Nikki Haley did in office? This? She just raised her hand a couple of times. It's like very high profile, kind of like glamorous. Right. But it's bullshit. You don't do anything. It's like you literally read from prescriptive remarks that the Secretary of State gives you. So you have very little power.

On the other hand, you can have a lot of power, especially this time. And this is one where I am almost betting the farm that the pro-Israel donors really boosted her. And the other thing to understand about Stefanik is not only did she gain a lot of, she came like more, become more nationally prominent with this whole Israel thing. But prior to that, she was a big Trump loyalist. She made her bones on the second Trump impeachment. That's right. And she made her speeches for him. She went all in on defending Trump. So much so, I thought she was a,

a real contender for vice president because Trump loved her and he would always bring her to Mar-a-Lago. And I remember it was like 2022 or something. He's like, this lady's going to be president. So as usual with Trump, like as long as you're personally very, if you are willing to defend him, then that's the thing that matters the most. So that's one where at least a phonic we can learn, you know, that's, that's,

Again, she's not going to have a lot of power, but she will probably be high profile, especially with respect to anything Israel related. And this is almost 100% a big, like, what is it, like an olive branch to the donors for what they want. It could be, right, hopefully, in my estimation, that they give it something like this to her. It's like a meaningless position, but it's something in the UN. But then the more important ones like Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, you pick somebody who is going to be less hawkish.

All of that very much remains to be seen. I want to be very, very clear about that. Who do you think was most influential in spiking Mike Pompeo? Because Pompeo was like traveling with Trump at the end of his campaign. Trump was talking him up on Joe Rogan, et cetera. Who do you think was most influential? It's Don Jr. So Jr. has, it's very interesting. Jr. has taken a major interest in the transition this time around. And actually Jr., unlike most of the people around Trump and very specifically like Jared Kushner, is ideological in a much more America

first way. So for example, if you look at his Twitter feed, Dave Smith put out a clip and he's like, well, let's make sure Pompeo's first. Let's keep all the neocons out. Don Jr. was like, I'm on it. Don't worry about it. Previously, Jr. was very impactful on picking J.D. Vance as the vice president. He also is a major player in nuking all of the people who worked on Project 2025 and was the people who's taken a real interest in the transition. Trump and him appear to have been a

become closer, at least like politically this time around. And Don Jr. also kind of keeps his finger on the pulse culturally. In fact, I would be remiss if I didn't point this out. It's really because of Don Jr. and his friendship with Dana White and UFC and all these comedians that a lot of this podcast stuff even kicked off. Don Jr.'s been at these UFC fights for years now.

He's somebody who's already friends with Dana White because his dad was. But he, you know, I mean, Andrew Schultz has talked about this. Him and Schultz were friends. He met Rogan. I mean, if you check out his Instagram feed, like he's Tony Hinchcliffe and all these people. They're all swimming in the same ether. Yeah. Barron was apparently influential. Barron was apparently.

was more the Gen Z, Aiden Ross. The Aiden Ross, Nug Boys, those types. Yeah, exactly. But Junior is like, he's the bridge to the millennial comedians, I guess. And so I think he was probably the most influential on that and is being very influential in terms of the transition. So, you know, I take some heart in that because, again, if you literally just look at his own public remarks, I don't think you would deny any of this. He is somebody who is very ideological on the subject of Ukraine and also on the subject of...

at least as far as I can tell, on terms of war with Iran. I mean, anybody, Republican figure who's engaging with Dave Smith, I mean, we all know Dave is as legit as it gets on this subject. So that seems to be a positive indicator. But let's put the Reuters piece up on the screen. This floats some other...

names that are in there. In terms of the Treasury Secretary, it's almost certainly going to be some Wall Street figure. Trump is obsessed with this idea that you need to have a billionaire like Wall Street financier as head of the Treasury Secretary because he remembers the Reagan times and he wants to bring some of that back. So people like John Paulson, Scott Besant, there are- I thought Larry Kudlow is still getting a mention in here. Yeah, I don't think Larry would get it just because it seems-

I mean, no offense to Larry, but like, treasure sector is a real job. It's like, you're not just on TV talking. You actually have to really know what you're doing and be like a very high, high competent figure. You know, say what you want about Steve Mnuchin, but you know, when time came, he actually did a pretty decent job, at least in terms of the small business administration stuff during COVID. Robert Lighthizer, it appears, has been tapped

as the U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer is very, very strong on tariffs. He was the architect of the Trump tariff policy. I thought he might be in charge and in the running for Secretary of State, but we don't have any of that right now. But I can tell you, Lighthizer, very legit guy, not only in the subject of China tariffs, but he designed USMCA with Mexico. Him and Trump have a very, very strong relationship. Trump strongly trusts Bob Lighthizer and actually would empower him.

Usually the trade representative does not have quite a lot of power. And also the best thing for Lighthizer this time around is that Jared Kushner is not coming into the admin. And last time around, he would do all these ad hoc negotiations, which would undercut him.

I saw Vivek as a potential for Secretary of State. Do you buy that? It's difficult to believe simply because we're about to talk about the Senate math. I don't see it for Vivek. I just don't see how you could take somebody who is not – I'm not saying he would be a bad Secretary of State. I actually think he'd be good. But the issue is going to be do you really think John Thune is going to vote for him? Do you really think John Cornyn? Do you really think – I don't know. I'm trying to think. Lisa Murkowski. You don't think they would vote for him? I don't think Lisa Murkowski would vote for Vivek.

Or Susan Collins? Well, first of all, I mean, they're talking about doing recess appointments anyway. Yeah, we're about to get to that. To be able to get people through, you know, even who wouldn't be able to garner the majority. But I don't see Vivek failing a confirmation hearing. It would be difficult just because he's an unknown figure. And these people are Washington creature. Trump's going to get who Trump wants.

So somebody I spoke to yesterday said that internally that there is a real graybeard-like bias for the big four. And the big four are like Secretary of Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, and Chief of Staff. And then all of those in general, look, the average age in the Senate is like 65. The Vegas is what, like 43? You know, it's like to get somebody through like that is going to be hard. I don't know.

I don't know. I mean, don't get my hopes up. I would listen. I think he would be the best cabinet. I just think, well, why don't we talk about the next part and then we can continue this conversation in there because it has, you know, relates to this like Senate leadership fight and all of those things. Yeah, that's a good point.

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So let's move there to the big Senate leadership fight. So there's like a big war going on right now over who should be the next GOP leader in the Senate. Mitch McConnell is retiring and stepping down from leader. And so the three candidates are Rick Scott, John Thune, and John Cornyn. So John Thune and John Cornyn are more establishment types. They were already number two and number three in the Republican conference. Rick Scott has become like a MAGA

rallying cry. So let's put this up there on the screen, for example, from Tucker Carlson, the most prominent to tweet this out. He says, what the hell is going on in the US Senate hours after Trump wins the most conclusive mandate in 40 years? Mitch McConnell has engineered a coup against his agenda by calling early leadership elections. Two of the three candidates hate Trump and what he ran on. One of them, John Cornyn, is an angry liberal whose politics are indistinguishable from Liz Cheney's. The election is Wednesday. It's by secret ballot, and it will determine whether or not the new administration's

succeeds. Rick Scott of Florida is the only candidate who agrees with Donald Trump. Call your senator and demand a public endorsement of Rick Scott. Don't let McConnell get away with it again. That is honestly the big question is why Rick Scott? And I gotta be honest, I don't get it at all.

for example, because Rick Scott was the guy who was in charge of the Senate leadership campaign. What is it, the NRSC? He was the head of the NRSC in 2022, which was a disaster. Remember, he went to the Amalfi Coast on a yacht? He put out that whole policy blueprint that called for Medicare and Social Security to be sunsetted every three years and have to be revoted. Which the Biden campaign ran on and was a

huge boon, remember, whenever Biden gave his, the only, frankly, good speech he gave his president, whenever he was giving his State of the Union and he was like, oh, so you agree we're not going to cut Social Security? Yeah. Got it, right? No, it was a real albatross around Republicans' neck. It was a huge problem. I mean, Democrats across the country ran on that plan because when you have the guy who's running the Republican campaign putting out like, hey, we're going to get rid of Medicare in a couple years. Yeah.

That's such a slam dunk. And everybody was furious with him. It did not speak to a lot of political acumen, I guess we would say. I don't get it. I mean, I'm assuming there must have just been some behind-the-scenes deal with Trump and Rick Scott where Rick was basically like, yes, sir, I'll do whatever you want. Whereas John Thune and Cornyn, I'm not saying they won't do it, but it's just different. These guys are Washington creatures.

They've been in office since George W. Bush. They've seen presidents come and go. They know how to slow shit down. They know how to do things if they need to, to obfuscate or to stop things from coming to the floor. And traditionally, this is something about the Senate as an institution. Traditionally, the Senate as an institution reveres its own independence. And so what they love more than anything is their ability to

to do and take as much time as they want to get what they see as important done, whether it be confirmation, legislation, et cetera. That's literally their role in the democratic process. And so it's understandable, but the Senate always chafes at presidential control. The other thing about, you know, Rick Scott is last time I checked and Michael Tracy flagged this, let's put this up there on the screen. Rick Scott is a freaking Ukraine mega hawk. I mean, quote from,

Tracy, Rick Scott has consistently denounced the administration for not arming Ukraine aggressively enough. His argument is that Biden has imposed excessive constraints on Ukraine and their ability to defeat Russia. As Tracy says, I've interviewed Scott myself multiple times and he's never been anything but consistent on the subject. So when MAGA's declared that Scott and Trump are in firm agreement, Ukraine would presumably have to be one of them, correct? I mean, look, as usual with all these actual parsing the details is very inconvenient.

But that's an important thing. You know, in terms of Ukraine, that's one of those that Trump has made a flagship promise to end the war in Ukraine. He's spoken now with Vladimir Putin and Zelensky. We'll maybe talk a little bit more about it tomorrow.

you know, if he does end up approving more weapons to Ukraine and continuing this war and not bringing it to a close like he did with Afghanistan, despite his promise, that would be a huge betrayal, honestly, of a lot of the promises that he made. So open question, that Senate race is on Wednesday. It's actually by secret ballot. So

That's kind of interesting. And also, the battle lines are very odd. So, like, I'm pretty sure Josh Hawley has not supported Rick Scott this time around. I mean, any time in one of these bodies, you're going to have things that are non-ideological that are just, like, personal beefs. Yeah, there's beefs. You know, or so-and-so didn't respond to – you know, I mean, so you just don't know who's done a better job, like, making friends and being nicey-nice with people. Well, see, that's one reason I think Rick Scott may have a problem.

He pissed a lot of people off last time because he ran against McConnell. He's kind of a likable guy, right? Yes, he's not particularly popular, at least as I understand it, within the conference. You know, Thune and Cornyn, look, I don't agree with these guys on basically anything. They're as, like, opposite as me as it gets on, like, every subject. And

even on America First. But there is a real bias in the Senate to just being around forever, knowing everybody, having everybody's phone number. They've been the whip and the number, whatever, the whip and the, what's the number, leader or something, for over a decade. So they've been on the phone. They know what pet issue. Oh, Susan Collins wants a bridge in fucking Maine or whatever. Yeah, I raised money for you. I showed up. I called in this favor. I got this donor to whatever. Yeah, Cornyn, I mean, he controls a shitload

ton of oil money in terms of the donors. Thune, he's also very popular on the big donor circuit and a lot of these establishment types. That's a big question for Rick Scott. I mean, can he raise money? Like I said, he didn't do a very good job last time. One of the reasons McConnell had such a stronghold on the conference is he was kind of like Pelosi. He was the conduit for billions of dollars that were flowing from him. So it is a big question. I have no idea how it will go. I guess it's

I mean, it's possible Rand Paul has come out for Rick Scott, but there's enough of them that are silent that I'm wondering whether they go in a different direction. To be honest with you, I don't think it really matters. I think Trump has thoroughly bent the party to his will. I mean, as evidenced by what we're about to talk about, Trump is saying, hey, anybody who's going to be majority leader, they got to do recess appointments, which basically means

that you are giving up if you are the Republican majority leader, a big part of what your power and prestige is, which is to oversee these confirmation hearings. And all three of them instantly were like, yep, we'll do that. No problem. So I don't know that. I mean, I just think it's probably at this point a distinction that doesn't really make a difference.

They're gonna do what Trump wants them to do because they see where the party is. There is no room for bucking this man when he decides that he really wants something done. I guess the opposite case is that there are many things that Trump doesn't really engage on, and that's where perhaps it makes a difference. But I don't know that this fight is ultimately that important in my opinion. The case where it really matters is stuff like when Trump, remember, pressured Mitch McConnell to nuke the filibuster to get the border bill through, stuff like that, right? Where-

I think Thune and Cornyn would be much more institutionalist and be like, we're not going to touch it. Whereas I think Scott, at least from what I can tell right now, I mean, clearly he's made a deal with Trump and he's like, I'll do whatever you want. It'd be an interesting thing though, actually, if he does. This would be the first Senate leader to really be in subservience to the president in a long time. If we think, I'm trying to think back, I think it would have to be back in the

the Reagan era, maybe. It's been a while since you've had somebody totally in lockstep. Let's go to the next part here. Yeah, this is John Thune. Everybody will love this. He was on CNBC. And he's like, you know, Trump, I think he needs to stay out of the race. He shouldn't endorse at all. Let's take a listen. Is President-elect Trump involved? And does he have a chosen preference in the Senate? Do you know, Senator? And will that come into play? I don't

Well, I don't know that he does. I stay in regular contact with him and with his team. And, you know, obviously, if he wants to, he could exert a considerable amount of influence on that. But honestly, I think my preference would be and I think it's probably in his best interest to stay out of that. These Senate secret ballot elections are probably best left to senators. And he's got to work with all of us when it's all said and done. But whatever he decides to do, that's going to be his prerogative, as we know.

How many others are there? We're going to have that election next Wednesday, and we'll have a new leader. Right.

Right, so he's like, I should stay out of it, you know, just for everybody's best. Now, this gets to what Crystal talked about. Let's put this up there on the screen. Trump tweeted yesterday, any Republican senator seeking the coveted leadership position in this U.S. Senate must agree to recess appointments, without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner. Sometimes the votes can take two years or more. This is what they did four years ago. We cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled immediately. Additionally, no judges should be approved during this period of time.

Because the Democrats are looking to ram through their judges as the Republicans fight over leadership. This is not acceptable. Thank you. Now, as Crystal said, all three of the candidates said that they agreed. But, you know, there's a lot of logistical hurdles that can come in. And I'm not exactly sure how it would all work because Schumer still does technically, like, control the Senate. For now, yeah. Yeah, for now. So he would have to acquiesce. There's no way the Democrats are going to let that happen.

go through, right? They want to approve as many of these federal judges as possible. This is game time for them. I also, this is very nerdy, so I apologize, but there's something called pro forma session, which they're in right now, which specifically prevents recess appointments. So you would have to get the Senate majority to agree to change the parliamentary rules. I mean, look, it's theoretically possible, I guess, if Rick Scott did win the election, maybe he could deal a deal with Schumer. I don't really know why Schumer would do it, but anyway-

Elon, oh, sorry, go ahead. Well, previously, Obama used the recess appointment powers and it was deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court the way that he executed it. So, I mean, listen, it's a different Supreme Court now, so who knows? They may well be like, whatever Trump wants to do, he can basically do. But to me, it was also like,

You have a 53-47 majority. Like, who is it exactly that you don't think they're—that you want that isn't going to get confirmed? Because I just think he has such a grip on this party now. You know, maybe Elisa Murkowski votes against our Susan Collins. Well, that's two votes, not only a 51. Yeah, but you still have a, you know, three-vote margin. So I think it's—I don't think he's going to have any problem getting people confirmed. But, Chris, there's always wild cards.

Just people that nobody's ever heard of. Todd Young, right? The guy who voted for impeachment from Indiana. I don't know. It's just he's so, at this point, it's just so clear where the party is. I don't disagree with you, but that's, look, the Senate, this is part of the reason people have hated the Senate for two centuries, because they're annoying. Who else? Who's the doctor, the one who also voted for impeachment? What's his name? The guy from Louisiana. I can't even remember. So,

The doctor, however the doctor votes, Haggerty, I think is his name. I'll remember it in a second. But there's wild cards all over in terms of who they are. Barrasso, right? You've got folks like that who sometimes they're MAGA, sometimes they're not. They all have their own individual constituencies. So I would not bet 100% that Trump is able to get

everybody who he wants. I mean, for example, from the reporting I've read, like Trump wants to appoint RFK Jr. to HHS secretary, but he's like, I don't know if he'll be able to make it through confirmation. So that is one too, where you could see, right, you could almost see like a weird right-wing case against RFK Jr. where they're like, oh, he's just a liberal. The other thing is that he's done before is then, okay, if they can't get confirmed, he'll just make them acting secretary and just basically leave them there permanently. He can, but it has a lot of legal problems in terms of their authority and all that.

You can try and get around it. No, I'm saying in terms of the agency, it causes real chaos. And there's a reason why, you know, people want it to get done. But we will see. Look, if they do go with Rick Scott, I think it's a very positive sign for exactly what you're saying in terms of Trump being able to get who he wants through. And a lot of personnel decisions will flow from that and also will flow in terms of whether they do recess appointment or not and all of that. So everybody stay tuned. This stuff I know can get a little in the weeds, but it's very important because this is how the government's actually going to get it run.

run. Yeah, and notably, you could put A9 up on the screen, Elon coming in for Rick Scott. Yes. For Senate majority leader, but yeah. So, I mean, a lot of people closing ranks. The one thing that the other guys have going for them is that it's a secret ballot. So, you know, anybody who votes against the will of Trump and Musk-

You know, as long as it doesn't get out, they won't necessarily be punished. But like I said, my assessment is basically these guys have already all been like, OK, we'll do recess appointments. No problem. So I just think they're going to do what Trump wants anyway. Any of the three that gets put in there. Yeah, very possible.

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At the same time, there's still quite a few people in the media who are trying to grapple with the election results. One of them, Sunny Hostin over at The View, her explanation for the big Latino shift to the right, misogyny, racism. Let's take a listen. What is wrong with this country that they would choose a message of divisiveness, of xenophobia, of racism, of misogyny?

over a message of inclusiveness, a message for the people, by the people, of the people. That is what the problem is. It's the Republican Party. But the Democrats have always been for the working people. Exactly. And the Republicans don't care about it. The message of the Democrats sounded elitist. You don't have value in society if you don't have a college degree. They sounded that way, but when you look at the proof, yeah, it warrants. But, Joy,

it's condescending. It's condescending. There is a condescending. The way that the left speaks to its voters. It really is. A message of joy and inclusiveness? No, the message of not being educated, being dumb, and what's wrong with America. Who said that? Sonny just did. What is wrong with America? My point here is

That's not what Kamala Harris said. No, no, no. That's what I'm saying. My point is, I don't blame Joe Biden. I don't blame Kamala Harris. Go back as far as you want. I believe I blame a messaging within the Democratic Party. You don't blame the Republican Party at all? Can I just finish my point, please? I obviously...

obviously have a problem, anyone has a problem with Donald Trump. The bigger question should be, yes, Sonny, why did they vote for him? Yes. In sweeping- They need to be introspective. No, no, we need to be introspective. If we voted for Kamala Harris, we need to say what didn't resonate with the voters. So that's where we're currently at. And that's just one of many clips that we could have shown you about where

Things are right now. There's been a competition to figure out. I don't know if you guys saw, there was actually an Onion video about like the race to figure out which minority group to blame for democratic laws. And I was like, wow, you guys really are meeting the moment with that one. And it's, there's a whole content like, you know,

White people obviously voted for Trump by the largest margin, so they could be to blame. Latino men could be to blame. Young men could be to blame. And it's like, you know, I think it's reasonable to suggest. In fact, I think it's true that gender in particular plays a real role in electoral politics. But if you are just if your instinct is to blame the voters. Mm hmm.

and not do any sort of reflection on like the multi-billion dollar consultant grift complex that fails or the democratic leadership, which has consistently failed or the people who circled the wagons around Joe Biden, even though he was on track for a 400 electoral college vote defeat. Like if that's your instinct, just get out of politics. You're not, if you think you're helping the Democrats, like you are not, you are not helping the Democrats just by being like, oh, it's because Latinos are sexist.

Some of those same Latino men who voted for Donald Trump probably in 2016. No, not only not some of them, almost all of them did vote, especially in those, like one of the places that she shouted out where Hillary won by 50 and Trump won by now 75 in 2024, literally voted for Hillary. And they actually voted for even higher margins for Barack Obama. So it's like, come on, man. Like, what are we doing here? This is the whole thing is ludicrous. And it's like you said, this is just a way of not even...

look, at a certain point, Sonny is a pundit, right? So maybe that's just like how she, that's how she sees the world. And I guess like, okay, fine. But it's something because that is a obviously ingrained part of the analysis of a lot of the Democratic Party elite. And it's also deeply convenient to the grift complex, to the leadership and to others, because then it's the voters' fault and it's not our fault for why we lost. It's not Pelosi, it's not Schumer, it's not Jamie Harrison, it's the voters. And like I said, like,

in a sense, I'm sympathetic because I understand that a lot of women looking at, you know, the policy landscape and, of course, Kamala Harris herself being a woman and people like Nick Fuentes out there being like, yay, your body, my choice forever. Like, I understand that sense of like, wow, maybe this country just hates women. Maybe they just don't really like women. And like I said, I'd be lying if I said that I didn't think gender played any role in this. But you also have to, you also have to

really think about what moves us forward, who is actually to blame for this state of affairs. And if you're just, you know, voters are irredeemably sexist and racist, then you may as well just throw your hands up and give up because in the Sonny Haas and worldview, those are like immutable characteristics that can't be changed no matter what. So what are you going to do? I agree. And look on the gender coin, like you just said, you know,

For anybody out there who's like, oh, they just hate women, it's like, no. It's like they think about things very differently than you. And then maybe you need to do a better job of understanding. I mean, I felt that way, right, going into 2022. And I go, who out there's number one issue is abortion? And I was like, you know, what world are we living in? Well, there are a lot of people.

OK, so clearly I'm like, OK, as a man, you know, whatever for all these people, not really something that I get. So that's not something like, oh, these people only care about themselves. I'm like, all right, I could emotively understand that. Well, you should think about the other way for people out there who are like, well, you know, necessarily one third of the people who voted for Donald Trump are pro-choice. A full 30 something percent of the people.

He won the popular vote in a country where there's some 65, 70% approval for Roe versus Wade as the consensus. So how did that happen? Is that because people hate women or are they multifaceted and they make choices based on a hierarchy of needs and about which in a way that they think is most important and what's going to be the most impactful?

And so your job is to flip it around and say, here's why this is important. Anyway, let's get to the congressional map and let's put this up there on the screen because I wanted to give everybody an update. So this is currently where things stand right now. The projected number of seats is 220 seats for Republicans, 215 seats for the Democrats. This honestly might be the most interesting result because it does show Republicans only won, you know, a two seat majority there. That's kind of a nightmare considering what's been going on right now.

All the Mike Johnson, the speaker election, which was crazy, and Matt Gaetz. And this gives a lot of power to the Marjorie Taylor Greene's of the world. It also actually gives quite a bit of power to some of the swing state Republicans.

in New York and elsewhere who barely hung on because they are going to, the reason why I'm saying this is when the policy fights come, this is where you are going to see that flex. So for example, the salt tax and the salt cap and all that, the New Jersey, New York people who, let's be fair, you know, Trump just ran the

ran the ballot up dramatically in all of the New England states, they're going to have a big bargaining chip for them. They're like, hey, you got to give us something to go back to our people. You're going to see the same in any of the swinging districts. I think in, what is it, in Orange County and elsewhere in California, where you saw some swing state races. You're going to see that in Nebraska. I bet you that Don Bacon guy who held

on. He's going to, whatever he wants in Omaha, I guarantee you he's going to get. So there's going to be quite a bit of jockeying and stuff like that in the House. And it also will be very precarious for the way things look policy-wise, because even though they do technically have a united government, it will not be how it traditionally is, which is

very narrow Senate margin, very big House margin. It's actually going to be flipped. And that has very interesting dynamics because the House is also where all the revenue stuff has to originate from. So you're going to see taxes, House Ways and Means Committee, where you have a very, very narrow margin. It will look differently. And a lot of the fights and the choke points are going to be more in the House this time around.

time around. Let's go and put up the Senate projections. We got some final calls in these races, so we now know for sure what the Senate map is going to look like. So in particular, you have Ruben Gallego, who was able to hold on narrowly win that Arizona Senate race over Carrie Lake. You also have Jackie Rosen over, I always forget the name of her, for

opponent. Sam Brown. Sam Brown. I always want to say Scott Brown. Not Scott Brown. Anyway, whatever. Do you mean Biden's ambassador to Australia? Is that what he? Yeah. He ended up in Australia. I didn't even remember that. Anyway, whatever. So Jackie Rosen wins a narrow victory in Nevada, which means that, you know, outside of Pennsylvania, which was very close and I think headed to a recount with Bob Casey. But I mean, it looks like McCormick was able to defeat him. Yeah, I mean, the AP called the race for McCormick,

Right. I think it is close enough, though, that it triggers a recount very likely. If they want to. Because Casey basically refuses to concede. And so, yeah, there's some beef going on with a lot of the Republicans right now because Josh Shapiro, I think it's up to the governor's discretion, too, because it would cost like $2 million if they do want to do a recount. So there's a lot of pressure on Casey to concede from the right. I mean, he doesn't have to if he doesn't want to, but.

to, but it could be a while until they call him. Yeah, but in any case, it looks like McCormick is the one Republican who was able to flip a swing state. Now, Republicans picked up in West Virginia, no surprise, picked up in Montana, and obviously blocked any Democratic, you know, Texas, Florida, Nebraska sort of dreams. But when you look at this, the one thing that could be hopeful for Democrats and a warning sign for Republicans is Trump doesn't have a lot of coattails. You know, Republicans narrowly hold on to the House.

make only one very close gain in terms of a swing state in the Senate. And, you know, the people who, like Carrie Lake, who were the most sort of like Trumpian in their approach to politics, they haven't fared particularly well. Like, he is a singularly unique figure. And now, assuming that there isn't a constitutional amendment, this will be his last term in office. So one of the questions for Republicans is if this politics thing

holds up post Trump and there are some parallels with Democrats under Obama. Yes. So a lot, there were a bunch, I'm talking hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Donald Trump and then just left the rest of the ballot empty, which is how people like Jackie Rosen and Ruben Gallego were able to get over the top is basically people who voted only for Trump and no one else. Democrats faced a similar dynamic under Obama where you'd have people who were like yes to Barack Obama and I don't care about anything else.

And we know that with Obama, while he was very good at getting himself elected and, you know, had some coattails as well, especially in 2008, he had huge coattails. He ultimately ended up being very damaging for the Democratic Party. That's when you saw massive losses in rural districts and areas. They lost the House. They lost the Senate. And of course, they hand the presidency over to Donald Trump post Obama. So, you know, I don't want to do like my mom.

Analog today is about how doomed Democrats are, so I'm not doing a cope here. But there is a question mark about how much this politics translates into the future when you do not have the singularly charismatic figure of Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. I think he outperformed every Republican Senate candidate in the country, save for Larry Hogan in Maryland. Yes, it's crazy. That was the only person I think that outperformed him in the Senate. Yeah, that's right, which makes sense. And he's a Republican running in a blue state where he's already popular, so it's pretty different. But

Yeah, he was governor of the state. He really tried to be very moderate, et cetera, et cetera. Which, by the way, how did that work out for him? It didn't work out. Well, he helped reform Trump. Yeah, I guess. He's still lost. I mean, it's pretty interesting. I am fascinated to see this in 2026 because that is where usually thermostatic public opinion, you have a big shift against the ruling party and you're going to have a blowout election. When you already have what the House right now, where it is, it will be almost, I mean, I wouldn't say so.

Certainly nothing is certain, but it looks likely that the Democrats would be able to reclaim it. From what this map I looked at, the Senate is not in danger of flipping right now in 2026. Some truly crazy stuff would have to happen. That said, crazy stuff has happened. Let's think back. Two Democrats from Georgia, that's never going to happen, right? Well, what's the world that we're living in right now? So of course, things can change. Everybody said in 2004 that the Democrats were dead. They'll never win again. 2006 was a freaking blowout election.

Yeah. You never know. Well, and everybody said Republicans were dead after 2008. Right. And I mean, to be fair, they kind of were dead for a while, but then they came back. It was such a massive victory for Barack Obama. I mean, he won frickin' Indiana. Yeah. North Carolina. Yeah. Huge co-chair. There were all kinds...

of Democratic candidates who were running like totally obscure long shot campaigns with basically no funding. And then suddenly it's like, oh my God, I won. What the hell? Yeah. It was- Tom Perriello? Is that his name? That was exactly what I was thinking about in Virginia, representing like the Charlottesville area. And it was people like that. Glenn and I was another one in Virginia. I just happen to know the Virginia ones well, but down in Virginia Beach. But yeah, and then 2010 was, in Obama's words, a shellacking. So, you know, we'll see. I-

I'll save some of my commentary also for, you know, it's in my monologue, whatever. I'm not saying Democrats are like electorally doomed. I think they can, you know, I think there's a chance that you have, I think there's a good chance you have a backlash to Trump in 2026. 2028, who knows? Trump won't be on the ballot. So we'll see what approach they take. But, you know, they also, the alarm bells are really ringing loudly because there's been such huge demographic shifts against them. You know, and if they don't,

If they don't stop the bleed, like they will be in a position of being basically a permanent minority because if you're only winning college educated voters, like that's only a third of the country. Yeah, it's a disaster. You're fucked. Yeah, absolutely. I will say, again, in terms of the popular opinion and all of that, things change a lot. So I just looked at 1982 was the popular vote margin of Democrats, 11.8%.

So in 1982, that's crazy. Well, they won the House. Yeah. With Tip O'Neill and all that. I mean, look. It was only when Gingrich came in that they lost the House. That's what I'm saying. Even throughout the entire Reagan administration. They held on to the House. Right. So everybody just needs to remember, like, things are not as clean as they may seem in retrospect. And that people in this country can change their mind a lot and wildly. And in fact, you know, the whole divided government thing.

which I think is dumb, but there are a lot of voters who like it, right? Because voters are like, well, I like checks and balances. Like, well, if you're going to vote for a president, don't you want the president to be able to do whatever they want to do? But whatever. People like the idea that not very much is going to change. Like a steady hand on the wheel, but not too much. You know, it's somebody in the other side. So we could see a swing in that direction. I will say if 2026 does go the way that you were talking

about or are going to talk about in your monologue, that is a whole other story. And that would be time for some serious retrospectives as well. So it's possible. It certainly is. I mean, if you don't screw up the economy, if the economy starts doing really well over two years, we have no war. If Ukraine gets wrapped up, if hostilities in Gaza go down and you see gas prices tick down and you see the Fed, which is naturally going to cut rates anyway, I could see a GOP victory that time around. Anything is on the table.

This is Shirley Strawberry from the Steve Harvey Morning Show. Toyota has been building a legacy of excellence for years, from developing hybrid technology to upping the standards of safety and efficiency. Toyota is always innovating, always making progress. And with a superior lineup of in-stock SUVs, including the adventure-ready RAV4 and capable, affordable Corolla Cross, you can experience the legacy of Toyota for yourself. Visit

buyatoyota.com, the official website for deals to find out more. Toyota, let's go places. Attention parents and grandparents. Are you searching for the perfect gift for your kids this holiday season? Give the gift of adventure that will last all year long. A Guardian bike, the easiest, safest, and quickest bikes for kids to learn on. Kids are learning to ride in just one day. No training wheels needed. What sets Guardian bikes apart?

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They were also featured on Shark Tank and are the New York Times Wirecutter Top Kids Bike Pick for 2024. Join the hundreds of thousands of happy families by getting a Guardian bike today. Their holiday sales have begun, offering the biggest deal of the year. Save up to 33% on bikes. No code needed. Plus, get free shipping and a free bike lock and pump with your first purchase after signing up for their newsletter. Visit GuardianBikes.com to take advantage of these deals and secure your holiday gifts today.

Happy writing!

Pick two or more players across any sport, pick more or less on their projection, and you could win up to 100 times your money. PrizePix even invented the FlexPlay, so you can still cash out if one of your picks doesn't hit. Not only that, but PrizePix is the only daily fantasy app with injury insurance. If one of your players goes down in the first half, PrizePix doesn't count it as a loss. Download the PrizePix app today and use code BREAKING and get $50 instantly when you play $5.

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Let's move on to another part of this. There's been a lot of discussion about some of the issues that swung people to Donald Trump. Obviously, the economy and immigration are there. But some interesting new analysis says that also it could be cultural issues, specifically transgender issues, that had a major impact on swing voters. We had a clip here from CNN we wanted to play that kind of highlights this.

this fight within both elite media and elsewhere and how the issue may be talked about now in the future. Let's take a listen. I think there are a lot of families out there who don't believe boys should play girls sports. They're not boys. I'm not going to listen to transphobia at this table. I am not going to listen to them call a trans girl a

Are you going to allow me to finish my explanation? When you use a word that's a slur, I'm going to interrupt. That's not how it is. They're not boys. They're not boys. They're not playing girls' softball. I'm not going to sit there and listen to that. Let's reset for a second because, look, this is a really heated issue, right? And, Shermichael, I know you. I know that you understand that people have different views on this.

I think out of respect for Jay, like, let's try to talk about this in a way that is respectful. Okay, so let me rephrase this since I'm being targeted here. I don't know. No, it's okay. You are not being targeted. But I am. But it's okay. I'm specifically saying that I know that you are not intending to be transphobic. He should know that I'm not. But I want you to... I want to give you an opportunity to...

Regular people interpret it. That's not regular people. That's not regular people. There's no consensus that these are actually boys. This whole thing about trans girls is a canard. We're talking about a tiny, tiny sliver of the population. That may be the case, but my point in terms of its effectiveness. Hold on, just get to your point. My point in terms of its effectiveness.

Regular people with children look at these things and they say, you know what? This is a bit too far. I do not agree with this. I don't like this. I think Democrats are going way too much to the left on social issues. They're uncomfortable with it. A lot of people believe that. A lot of families believe that. You may disagree with that reality, but that's why Republicans kept running those ads over and over and over again because they saw the metrics suggested that they were working. And lying in those ads over and over again and using rhetoric...

like you just used, saying this is boys playing girls sports. First of all, we're talking about five people in the entire country. We're talking about trans girls being allowed to play with the people who are in their gender. And if you don't believe, you don't have to listen to me. Listen to the American Medical Association, the American Psychological Association.

All right, so preview of what culture war 2.0 looks like now that this has happened. Let's put this up there on the screen. This is really the genesis, I think, of why this is even worth discussing. So this is from Blueprint, and we've used some of their polling and stuff before. And they show the different issues that have animated different types of voters. So for example, if you look, reason to not choose Kamala Harris. The number one issue for all voters was inflation was too high under the Biden administration.

Number two was too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under Biden and Harris. So that makes sense. But actually, along the swing voters, this was honestly, I was shocked by this. It says all swing voters, but specifically all swing voters who chose Trump. It said Kamala Harris is more focused on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class.

That was a plus 28 score on Blueprint. Now, look, let's be clear. People are not always the best in terms of why they vote. And I'm the most consistent messenger on that. So I'm not going to say that this is the number one reason. But, I mean, I do think this is a vindication, at least somewhat, of that ad.

So I think that this type of analysis, which I have myself engaged in, which is basically like,

Let's focus group and poll test and get the voters to tell us in this paint by numbers way what we should believe in. I think it is worse than worthless. I think if you look at the campaign that the Kamala Harris team actually put that chart back up on the screen, they basically ran the campaign designed custom like platonic ideal of the campaign that would be designed to

to try to deal with these exact poll numbers. Inflation was too high. Okay, let me talk about my price gouging plan. Let me say I feel your pain. Too many immigrants illegally cross the border. Don't worry, I'm hawkish on the border now. Those other things I said in the past, forget all about that. Actually, I really am more aggressive and hawkish on the border than Donald Trump is. Too focused on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class. I

I am not even going to say the word transgender in my entire campaign. Is that true? I didn't know that. I mean, not that I remember, maybe once, but not that I recall. Okay. It was certainly not, I'm not going to talk about my race. I'm not going to talk about my gender. I'm going to run around the country with Liz Cheney and try to persuade you that actually I'm just like basically a Republican. The only way I'm different from Biden is I'm actually further to the right. I'm going to put Republicans in my cabinet. Like,

This is the campaign that Democrats ran, and it was an objective, clear-cut, demonstrable failure because as much as I would like politics to actually work this way because I have a bunch of poll numbers I could put up there about how popular Medicare for All is and how popular minimum wage is and how popular unions are, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

If that was the way politics actually worked, Kamala Harris would be headed to the White House right now. Yeah, I think that's fair. Donald Trump ran around talking about Arnold Palmer's dick. The idea Democrats are the two divisive ones? Are you kidding me? Trump is the most divisive figure in modern American politics.

The lesson is not to be less divisive. The lesson is actually to be more divisive, but around the correct lines. So what is Trump's division? And what does he feed the division in the worldview that he feeds into, the narrative that he feeds into with everything he does? The litmus test for being part of Donald Trump's party is the problems in your lives are because of immigrants, Democrats, cultural elites.

I will save, I will fix it, right? Those are the litmus tests within the Republican Party. That is the worldview. It's one I disagree with. I've talked a lot about it, but that is the worldview and it's very clear cut worldview. So when you're talking about things like transgender issues, that fits into this idea from him. Cultural elites are trying to change you, indoctrinate your kids, take over your life,

preach to you about what your values should be when we're talking about the border, when we're talking about immigrants. These immigrants are gonna come into your town, they're gonna steal your jobs, they're gonna drive up housing. Again, I think all of this is incorrect, but it's clear cut, right? It is clear cut and it is extremely divisive.

So the problem is not that Democrats were too talking about, I don't even remember the last time Democrats talked about transgender issues at all. And it's not that Democrats were too far right or too far left or whatever. The problem is they have no narrative. They do not have a divisive politics, at least not one that actually works. This is where Bernie Sanders was on the money. Okay. Occupy Wall Street. What's the division there? The 99 versus the one.

Bernie Sanders, what's the division? The people broadly versus the millionaires and the billionaires. That's what they need. And so, you know, the guy who was like arguing with Sher Michael on there, who I'm not really familiar with. The part that he said that was the most important and that should be coming out of Democrats' mouths when they're being pressed on, you know, transgender athletes or whatever is he said, this is a canard. And that's the important point.

How does the five transgender athletes in the country, how does that impact you, your ability to have a good life, earn a good wage, etc.? It's a distraction.

It's a distraction from billionaire elites who want another tax cut or, you know, Elon Musk case want another like government subsidy, taxpayer subsidized contract. That is what Democrats should be leaning into. They shouldn't be running away from it. They need their own divisive politics and they need to throw out

This like focus group poll tested bullshit because the paint by numbers way of like, let me just poll test my way into what I think is a popular program, utter and complete rejected failure. So I don't think that any of that is necessarily wrong in terms of the focus group, but on

I mean, look, I mean, I do think it is clear that there is a reality problem the Democrats face. So what you were saying in terms of, you know, oh, Kamala didn't run on it. It's like, yeah, but in 2019, she literally did say she should tax her dollars to have gender transition surgery for illegal immigrants. That's objectively an insane thing to believe. Like these people ran around all

Trump did it during his administration too, by the way.

In 2022, if Republicans did not say the word abortion, would that not mean that they still get tagged, and rightfully so, with the issue of abortion? Democrats basically completely changed their views on gender after Obergefell and tried to shove it down the mouths of American citizens. Dominated cultural elites have tried to normalize

this transgender ideology, legalize it in terms of plugging little children full of castration drugs and puberty blockers. And then they say that it's a canard. It's not a canard. Like thousands of children actually have been chemically castrated in this country. That is crazy. Now, is it the number one issue? No. But clearly, a lot of people are very concerned about it. And I think, you know, at this point, there is a bit of a mandate on the issue because it's one of those where,

It gets to the fact that multiracial groups, men, women, young, et cetera, do feel as if these issues have more of an importance in the Democratic mind. And what I would mean by that is, I remember I had this big fight with some progressive on rising back

in 2019. And I was like, look, simple question. Could you ever support Medicare for all if it didn't include transgender surgeries? And they wouldn't answer the question. And like, I think that says the whole ballgame. Could you ever support Medicare for all if it did not cover abortion? That's again, same thing. So if that's true for you, then you don't support, you know, or then you do think cultural issues are the most important. If you would deny healthcare

care, you know, to what 99.9% or whatever the US population and put it at risk because it doesn't support gender transition surgery or abortion. It's like, well, then you do care more about the cultural issue than you do the so-called economic issue. But you're actually in a sense making my point because I do think that should be flipped

So I think the litmus test in the Democratic Party should be things like billionaires should not exist. We should tax the rich more, right? They should be clear, like economic populist class war. Those should be the litmus test. And then outside of that, there should be a lot more flexibility. But there is none. There's zero. But Sagar, I'm not talking about what is. Okay, for sure. I'm talking about what is.

I'm critiquing what is. I'm saying it is the opposite of what it should be. Because instead, it's we're going to be the coalition of Dick Cheney and Mark Cuban and Taylor Swift and Bernie Sanders. And that doesn't make any goddamn sense, okay? That is not a, there is no division in there that makes any kind of rational or electoral sense. So on the specific question of like transgender issues, a couple of

A couple things I would point to. Number one, in states where those they-them ads ran and they were head-to-head, you know, these were the battleground states where the campaigns were spending all of their money and Kamala was running this actually, like, pretty good class Trump's a billionaire, doesn't look out for you message. She narrowed the gap significantly. She outperformed in those states where the they-them ads were being run versus the rest of the country. So there's that. And the other piece is,

Democrats ran around this whole country this whole year castigating college students as too woke and too out of touch, etc. I just am not sure that there's any more to be gained from that sense of politics, sort of politics. Because ultimately, there's always going to be some pink haired college kid out there who's saying like, you know, they're introducing themselves with their pronouns and doing a land acknowledgement to be like, see, the wokeism got them.

Conley ran the platonic ideal of the campaign that the popularists who say just avoid this stuff altogether, that they would suggest. I've been saying the same thing on immigration. I think it was a dramatic political and moral, but political failure for them to just cede the ground to the Republican worldview and say, you know what? You're right about everything. Immigrants actually are bad.

guess what? If that's the worldview, Republicans are going to win every single time. If the worldview is actually transgender, you know, issues are the number one issue and cultural elites are trying to like trans your little boy. If you accept that framing, guess what? Republicans are going to win every single time. How about instead saying, you know what? Just like

It shouldn't be the state telling women what they can do with their bodies. It shouldn't be the state telling transgender people what they can do with their bodies either. Well, what about children? No, but the children is the main question. Families, doctors, these are complicated issues. Nobody out there is saying that adults should be able to transition. Yes, they are.

Yeah, actually they are. Maybe Matt Walsh and a few fringe characters. But even Trump, even Trump now, you know, one of his first executive orders he says he's going to sign is making sure that, you know, all federal government forums just reflect male, female, and it's your biological sex. What I'm saying is that's not just about kids. That's about saying basically the message there, and I don't

think it's like all that important. But the message there is that trans people are not real. They don't exist. No, it's that your biological sex is assigned at birth. Transgender people, what are the trans people, what do the trans propagandists always tell us? Transgender people have existed forever. Well, you existed whenever the male-female form was on there. Is it so important for you to have a form?

I just said it's not actually that. They're the crazy people. It's not that critical of an issue. There should be flexibility on it within the Democratic coalition. But what I will not abide is people like, you know, Seth Moulton and Tom Suozzi, who came out immediately were like, actually, I'm on the side of the Republicans when it comes to who just their immediate

instinct is to throw transgender people under the bus. Now think of how convenient that is for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris herself, the entire Democratic consultant grift complex. Think of how convenient that is. It does not hurt a single donor to throw transgender people under the bus. It does not hurt a single Democratic elite. They've been throwing transgender people under the bus for

years now at this point, does not hurt them one bit at all. So listen, I am all open to having more. I don't think we should be doing the word policing. I think there should be more flexibility on cultural issues. I think the litmus test should be around economic populism. That's where the divide belongs. But no, if you're

Your first reaction is to throw some of the most powerless people in the country under the bus. You have no spine, no character, and you are running cover for the current status quo of the Democratic Party, and nothing will ever change. I just disagree with that completely.

I mean, the idea that trans people are the least powerful? I mean, they're the most powerful. Are you kidding me? They've ruled our politics for years. I mean, these people are forcing their fringe ideology on all of us. That's tyranny. Look at their income. Look at their health outcomes. Look at their life expectancy. Look at their suicide rates. Like, that's a proportionality.

- Preposterous view of the world. - Well, first of all, a lot of those stats around that population changes because the population has dramatically increased and there's quite a lot of people who are either autistic or mentally ill or somehow convinced that they're trans. So that's number one. So actually I'm very curious to see how the rates go whenever we actually get this stuff out of schools. My prediction will be just like anorexia, it'll be a social contagion phenomenon that's gonna plunge, which means it was all bullshit and fake in the first place.

But second is that if you look at this whole like this transgender people under the bus, I mean, it's the same thing. It's like, is it really, quote unquote, throwing people under the bus to say that you biologically, however sex you're born in, that's the league of sports that you have to play? Like, how is that throwing people under the bus? Because, you know what? Yeah. Putting the how you feel about the issue aside, because I don't even, this is my point. I don't give a shit about the issue. I genuinely don't. I don't think it's important at all.

Which is why if you are making that your main analysis,

of what went wrong here for Democrats, it is wildly dishonest and lacking in any sort of courage or moral character. So Seth Moulton put out his little statement and one of his staffers resigned. I think we have it. B7, please. We'll put it on the screen. And you know what? That staffer is correct to resign, not because of the specific position that he took. They are correct to resign because it displays such a lack of courage and character to go to the easiest position

easiest target here who has no defense against you. You don't have a word to say about Jamie Harrison. You don't have a word to say about the $2 billion that are now lining the pockets of the consultant grift complex. You don't have anything to say about that. So that's why I find this despicable. It's not even about the issue. I don't give a shit about that issue.

That's what and that's what Democrats should be saying. That's what they should be saying. But it has to be a part. So I'm not even saying that transition had nothing to do with this because Trump had a coherent frame and transgender issues and the border and all of these other things that were part that was part of the frame.

Kamala Harris and Democrats have a laundry list of issues that no one remembers and no one gives a shit about because they don't believe they're actually going to do anything with regard to those issues. They need a divisive politics. They need to be more aggressive in fighting and laying out their worldview. Because if you're constantly just capitulating to the Republican worldview, guess what people are going to vote for Republicans. If you are not credible in

that you are going to go after the economic elites who are actually responsible for so much of the pain and the misery of this country, then yeah,

They're going to vote for the side that actually does have a narrative. So that's why I say, just to go back to the original chart we put up on the screen, you know, I am someone who, like, I have been that person who's been like, guys, look at how popular progressive policy issues are. Like, you just need to talk about Medicare for all. You just need to talk about these things. And that is not enough. It has to fit into a clear, credible narrative with heroes and villains. And that is what's

where the real problem is. It's not some like, you know, oh, people said woke stuff back in 2020. Oh, you know, we should have tacked a little bit this way on that issue or whatever. No, you are lacking a story that makes any goddamn sense to anyone in this country. That's what has to be. I think I understand a bit better. Yeah, I get what you're saying in terms of if you're going to say this is respect to

Yeah, I mean, it would be like if the Republicans lost and they're like, oh, well, Trump is the only reason that we lost. And I'm like, well, I think abortion would have been a pretty big one. It would be like the idea of trying to preserve unpopular parts of a coalition without blaming any of the people who are really responsible. So I do understand it. I don't know.

I'm curious because I'm not sure if any of this exists within the party, which is a good segue to the next part about Bernie Sanders versus Nancy Pelosi. It doesn't. It doesn't. For right now, I don't see a single... Well, the other problem is, before we even get to the whole Bernie thing, one of the things Matt Karp keeps talking about is that Democrats performed, what is it, better with households over 100K as opposed to households under 100K that voted for Trump. I mean, then the truth is that people who make over 100K are

predominantly well-educated and have more far left to views on immigration transition. In fact, they think those are the most important stuff and they don't want to hear nothing about, you know, taxation or any of that. And so that actually might be one of the bigger coalitional fights. Of course. Yeah. Of course. If Democrats are going to win again, they have to go to war with their donor base. And we all know how likely that is to happen.

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