PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 25th, 2024: Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Breakthrough & Mystery Drones Swarm US Air Force Bases
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It's Monday, 25 November. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed.

First, a potential diplomatic breakthrough, possibly, in the Middle East, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signals Jerusalem's support for a U.S.-backed ceasefire with Hezbollah. And then we turn to the U.K., where swarms of unidentified drones were spotted flying over three British air bases that house United States Air Force operations. We'll

We'll discuss the mysterious sightings and who may be behind the activity. And here's a spoiler alert. They don't know who might be behind the activity. But first, our afternoon spotlight. Despite a weekend of intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, there are some rumblings that both sides are nearing an agreement for at least a temporary ceasefire.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled his approval for the emerging ceasefire deal during a meeting with senior security officials on Sunday evening. A spokesman for Netanyahu's office said details of the plan will be transmitted to the Lebanese government on Monday, and the Israeli cabinet will formally vote on the proposed ceasefire on Tuesday. That's according to a report from CNN. Now, before sounding too optimistic, is

Israeli officials have stressed that there are still reservations regarding some of the finer details of the proposal. Negotiators are working to resolve these outstanding points of contention, but as both sides continue to trade fire, well, the situation obviously remains incredibly fragile.

Despite these lingering issues, the White House, well, they appear confident that they'll be resolved in short order. Four senior Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday that President Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been involved in mediation talks, are planning to formally announce a ceasefire in the next 36 hours.

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut last week to iron out details of the agreement with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mekadi, who reportedly responded favorably to the terms. Hochstein then gave an ultimatum to Israel. Oh, it's an ultimatum on Saturday.

reportedly telling their ambassador to Washington that the U.S. would pull out of further negotiations if leaders in Jerusalem did not respond positively to the ceasefire proposal in a timely manner. By Sunday, representatives for Netanyahu said he had approved the plan, quote, in principle.

While some of the details do remain unclear, in broad strokes, the U.S.-backed proposal calls for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, during which negotiators will work towards achieving a permanent deal.

As we've previously reported, the potential deal would essentially mirror UN Resolution 1701 from back in the year 2006, which was supposed to demilitarize the border area in Lebanon south of the Latani River. The idea at the time was that the Lebanese army and a UN peacekeeping force would ensure security in that border area by keeping Hezbollah from operating there.

Well, that proved ineffective, and yet hope springs eternal, as the same concept is now being floated once again. One major sticking point for Israel was their ability to operate in Lebanon if Hezbollah decides to break the terms of their agreement, which, as noted, they did following the 2006 resolution.

As recently as last week, Israeli officials said any final deal must allow Israel to retain this, quote, freedom to act as Hezbollah's return to border areas could once again put Israeli lives at risk. Israel has good reason to be skeptical that Hezbollah will comply with the terms,

After all, following the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 and the implementation of the UN Resolution 1701, Hezbollah quickly reneged on their obligations and began building the border area south of the Latani River into a sprawling base of operations. But the updated U.S. proposal,

appears to address these concerns, calling for a five-country international monitoring committee. A committee is always the way to solve these problems, isn't it? Led by the U.S. to ensure compliance with the ceasefire terms. If Hezbollah attempts to reconstitute their forces south of the Latani River, the U.S. has guaranteed support for renewed Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon.

At this time, U.S. officials appear cautiously optimistic that they can get the agreement over the finish line, but acknowledge the delicate nature of the talks. Neither the U.S. or France has confirmed the reports regarding any imminent announcement of a truce.

An anonymous U.S. official told Axios, quote, We think we have a deal. We're on the goal line, but we haven't crossed it yet. Something can always go wrong until then, end quote. And that is what we refer to as a statement of the obvious. Coming up, we'll turn to some alarming security news out of the U.K., where swarms of unidentified drones were spotted flying over three critical British air bases that house United States Air Force operations.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Unidentified drones were spotted hovering over three British air bases housing U.S. Air Force operations last week, continuing concerns about potential surveillance and security breaches at military installations.

The drones appeared at different times, spanning Wednesday through Saturday, over Royal Air Force RAF Mildenhall, RAF Lakenheath, and RAF Feltwell, all critical to U.S. military operations in Europe.

Now, Mildenhall hosts the U.S. Air Force's 100th Air Refueling Wing, specializing, of course, in mid-air refueling missions. Lakenheath is home to the 48th Fighter Wing, and that's a cornerstone of U.S. combat capabilities in the region, and Feltwell primarily serves as a logistics and military housing hub.

Now, a spokesperson for U.S. Air Forces in Europe confirmed to the New York Post that the unmanned aircraft varied in size and configuration with fluctuating numbers across the incidents.

The spokesperson emphasized that the incursions did not impact base residence or critical infrastructure, and no malicious intent has been confirmed, which means they have no idea whether there was any malicious intent or not. A representative from Britain's Ministry of Defense stated, quote, We take threats seriously, that's good, and maintain robust measures at defense sites, adding that these measures include, quote, counter-drone security capabilities, and yet...

There were the drones. It's important to note that military protocols typically prohibit shooting down drones unless they pose an immediate threat in an effort to prioritize civilian safety. All right. According to CNN, a source familiar with the matter described the drones activity as coordinated and suggested they were unlikely to be hobbyist devices. Now, while their origins remain unknown,

Some officials suspect foreign actors such as Russia or China may be using the drones for espionage, though this has not been confirmed because nobody really knows. As of now, the source also noted that there's no evidence that the drones collected sensitive intelligence, although to be fair, look, if they don't know who was responsible for the drones, then really they have no idea if the drones were in fact collecting intel. So, saying that they have no evidence that the drones were collecting sensitive intelligence

also means that they, in fact, could have been collecting sensitive intelligence. British and U.S. officials have declined to comment further, but the incidents have drawn parallels to the House Oversight Committee hearing earlier this month in Washington, D.C., on unidentified anomalous phenomena and an October Wall Street Journal report of dozens of similar devices buzzing military bases and sensitive facilities in Virginia and Nevada this

over the last year. As U.S. and British defense officials work to determine the drone's origins and intent, the incidents do underscore the growing challenge of counter-drone defense and the importance of safeguarding critical military infrastructure against potential surveillance threats. Now, perhaps, and here I'm just throwing out ideas, but maybe if we're seeing reported incidents of this sort, then

then perhaps the military should revamp their counter-drone policy to allow for a shoot-down of any unauthorized drones over sensitive or critical facilities. That doesn't seem like rocket science. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Monday, 25 November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com.

And of course, word on the street is that to listen to the show ad-free, you can simply become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdppremium.com. That is indeed the word on the street. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.