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cover of episode PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 18th, 2024: Moscow Issues Warning Over U.S.-Made Missile Strikes & Hamas Finds A New Home

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 18th, 2024: Moscow Issues Warning Over U.S.-Made Missile Strikes & Hamas Finds A New Home

2024/11/18
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Key Insights

Why did the Biden administration approve Ukrainian forces to strike deep into Russian territory?

The decision was almost entirely triggered by North Korea's entry into the conflict. It also aims to clear the way for Britain and France to provide similar weapons for strikes into Russia.

What was the Kremlin's reaction to the U.S. decision on Ukrainian missile strikes?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the U.S. of adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions. He implied Russia is the victim in this conflict.

Where did Hamas leaders relocate after being expelled from Qatar?

Hamas leaders relocated to Turkey, a move likely to strain relations with the Biden administration.

Why did Qatar expel Hamas leaders?

Qatar expelled Hamas leaders due to their refusal to engage in a proposed hostage deal and the execution of six captives, including an American citizen. Doha also cited a lack of good faith in negotiations from both Hamas and Israel.

How might Turkey's hosting of Hamas leaders affect regional dynamics?

Turkey's hosting of Hamas leaders could signal a shift in regional dynamics, potentially placing Ankara in a more prominent position to mediate future negotiations as Qatar and Egypt step back.

What was President Zelensky's response to the Biden administration's decision?

Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a measured yet pointed response, though the exact content was not provided in the transcript.

What impact did the death of Yahya Sinwar have on Hamas's leadership?

The death of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, added to the instability within Hamas leadership, creating a leadership vacuum that complicates negotiations with Israel.

Chapters

The Biden administration grants Ukraine permission to strike deep into Russian territory with American-made ballistic missiles, sparking reactions from Moscow and the international community.
  • The Biden administration reverses a long-standing policy restricting the use of ATAKOMs, tactical ballistic missiles, allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory.
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticizes the U.S. decision, warning of escalating tensions.
  • Ukraine plans to use the missiles in the Kursk region, where they face approximately 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops.

Shownotes Transcript

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It's Monday, 18 November. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up...

Moscow is reacting to the news that the Biden administration has granted permission to Ukrainian forces to strike targets inside Russia's Kursk region with long-range American munitions. We'll have the latest comments from the Kremlin. And in case you're wondering, the Kremlin's comments, well, they're not particularly supportive of the U.S. decision.

Later in the show, a week after being booted by Qatar, the leaders of Hamas have found a new home. Oh, look at that. They're settling in already, setting up shop in the nation of Turkey, which, of course, is a member of NATO. Well, you can always count on Turkish leader Erdogan to play both sides of any game. But first, our afternoon spotlight.

Moscow is reacting sharply to reports that the Biden administration has given Ukraine the green light to target deep inside Russian territory with U.S. supplied long-range missiles.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, "...it's obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps, and they've been talking about this, to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict." Well, for that statement, Peskov wins today's PDB Lack of Self-Awareness Award. It's almost like he imagines that Russia is the victim in this conflict.

While President Putin has yet to comment on the administration's decision, he warned back in September that allowing Ukraine to target Russia would significantly raise the stakes and that it would signal that NATO countries are at war with Russia. Well, clearly, as we already know, Putin himself lacks both self-awareness and any sense of irony. What raised the stakes in this conflict?

is Putin's decision to invade a sovereign nation. Back in September also, Putin reaffirmed Moscow's readiness to use nuclear weapons if it sees a threat to its sovereignty.

Kyiv has also weighed in on the news, with Ukrainian President Zelensky delivering a measured yet pointed response. In a Sunday evening address, Zelensky said, quote, End quote.

The Biden administration's move was also hailed by some of the U.S.'s NATO allies, including Poland. The Polish president declared that the White House decision could be a decisive moment in the war.

As we reported this morning, the Biden administration has reversed a long-standing U.S. policy restricting the use of ATAKOMs, tactical ballistic missiles, with a range of approximately 190 miles. Under the new policy, Kyiv's forces will be permitted to strike deeper into Russian territory, a significant shift from the previous rules, which only allowed targeting Russian troops placed just across the border.

The administration's decision may have the follow-on effect of clearing the way for Britain and France to also provide similar weapons for strikes into Russia. According to U.S. officials, Biden's decision was almost entirely triggered by the entry of North Korea into the conflict. Ukraine will likely initially use the missiles in the Kursk region, where they're currently facing approximately 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops.

Sources told Reuters that Ukraine could carry out the first strikes using ATAKOMs in the coming days. Now, Biden's decision comes as Moscow's forces continue to slowly push the Ukrainian army backward in the eastern Donetsk region. Putin's military has also conducted a devastating aerial campaign against civilian areas in Ukraine, with a specific focus on energy infrastructure as winter settles in.

Most recently, a Russian ballistic missile hit a residential neighborhood in Odessa, setting a building alight and killing at least 10 people and wounding another 43. Coming up next, senior members of Hamas have found a new host just days after being bounced from Qatar. I'll have those details after the break.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. As discussed here on the PDB, Hamas' leadership was booted from Qatar earlier this month following Doha's decision to end mediation efforts in the terror group's war with Israel, raising questions about the Iranian-backed organization's relocation plans.

Hamas senior leaders had been living the good life in Qatar, relaxing in the luxury that their billions of dollars stolen from the residents of Gaza has afforded them. The Qatari decision came after the U.S. requested Qatar expel Hamas leaders on 8 November, citing the group's refusal to engage in a proposed hostage deal and the execution of six captives, including an American citizen.

An American source confirmed that Doha told Hamas, quote, you are not welcome here. The next day, Qatar announced it had halted its mediation efforts. However, according to an Arab diplomat who spoke to the Times of Israel, Doha asked Hamas leaders to leave the country back in late October, frustrated by both sides' unwillingness to negotiate seriously, though no timeline was mentioned. The diplomat emphasized that Qatar's expulsion of Hamas was not necessarily permanent,

but contingent on a renewed commitment to talks. Doha, which has hosted a Hamas office since 2012, framed its decision as a response to the lack of good faith in negotiations from both Hamas and Israel. Qatar's move underscores a growing disarray within Hamas leadership. The death of Yahya Sinmar, the Hamas leader in Gaza back in mid-October, added, of course, to the instability.

While the U.S. had hoped Senwar's elimination would open pathways for a ceasefire, Arab mediators in Qatar and Egypt expressed skepticism. The two countries argued that his absence creates a leadership vacuum, complicating any meaningful negotiations with Israel. Meanwhile, Jerusalem has resisted calls for an open-ended ceasefire, citing concerns about leaving Hamas in power in Gaza, thus maintaining the threat to Israel.

As Hamas's leaders began packing their bags, Turkey emerged as their primary resettlement spot. The terror group's senior leadership and their families have relocated to Ankara, a move likely to strain Turkey's relations with the Biden administration.

Washington has explicitly warned allies against hosting Hamas and President-elect Donald Trump is expected to uphold this firm stance when he takes office in January. Turkey's support for Hamas is, well, neither new nor subtle.

Turkish President Erdogan has consistently framed the group as a legitimate representative of Palestinian interests, rejecting international designations of Hamas as a terrorist organization. Aside from all their other past terrorist activities, apparently Hamas's 7 October slaughter of Israelis, well, that doesn't qualify as an act of terrorism in Erdogan's worldview.

In March, Erdogan stated, quote, no one can make us qualify Hamas as a terrorist organization during a speech in Istanbul, underscoring Ankara's unwavering backing. Erdogan's rhetoric is further backed by symbolic gestures. In August, following the elimination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Hanyay,

Erdogan declared a national day of mourning. The Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv, of all places, marked the death by lowering its flag to half-mast, a provocative move to say the least, reaffirming Turkey's alignment with the terror group.

Ankara's role in hosting Hamas leadership could signal a shift in regional dynamics, as Qatar and Egypt have stepped back, frustrated by the inflexibility of both Hamas and Israel. And that could leave Turkey in a more prominent position to mediate future negotiations.

While mediators debate the merits of continued dialogue, the absence of centralized leadership in the terror group and the diplomatic void left by Qatar suggest a comprehensive resolution remains elusive. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Monday, 18 November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com.

And of course, as you've probably already heard from office scuttlebutt, to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdppremium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.