October 29th, 2024: Iran’s Missile Setback, Turkey-Iraq Conflict, & Russia’s Donetsk Push
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Here's my recipe for a great start to the morning. First of all, well, get up. Then, get yourself an empty coffee mug. Next, fill it with blackout coffee.

It's that simple. Blackout Coffee is a terrific family-owned American company, and they are all about one thing, and that's producing the finest in coffee, right? Premium coffee, fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackoutcoffee.com, promo code PDB, for 20% off your first-time purchase. It's Tuesday, 29 October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.

Let's get briefed. In today's show, new insights into Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran reveal what is a significant blow to Iran's missile production capabilities and, at the same time, a notable setback for Russia's defense industry. We'll break down the details in today's spotlight.

Also in the program, the latest from Turkey's bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria, as the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, claims responsibility for that deadly attack near Ankara just last week. Plus, the Russian army is claiming new advances in eastern Ukraine, capturing a major Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk.

And in today's back of the brief, bad news for Iran's supreme leader, as his newest ex-account has been suspended for threatening violence against Israel. What? I didn't see that coming at all. Because apparently, just being the supreme leader of the world's number one state sponsor of terrorism that's created numerous terrorist proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, well, that alone wasn't enough to get banned from social media.

Now, if we could just get that dude off of TikTok. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We're gaining new insights into Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran over the weekend, particularly on how the chosen targets could disrupt Iran's capabilities and those of its allies moving forward. Reports indicate that Israel targeted a total of three missile manufacturing bases, dealing a significant blow to Iran's military infrastructure.

According to three Israeli sources who spoke with Axios, the strike eliminated a critical component of Iran's ballistic missile program, potentially setting back its progress in missile development and production.

The sources reported that Israel targeted 12 what are known as planetary mixers, essential for producing solid fuel used in Iran's long-range ballistic missiles, which constitute the core of its missile arsenal. According to the sources, these planetary mixers are highly advanced pieces of equipment that Iran can't manufacture domestically and they must instead procure them from China. That's something that they estimate could take years.

This strike marks a significant setback for Iran, making it increasingly challenging for Tehran to replenish its own missile stockpile and support the arsenals of its proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. The choice of targets was strategic, aimed at crippling Iran's missile production capabilities, especially those used in confrontations with Israel. However, now Iran, and this is very interesting, wasn't the only party affected by Israel's actions this weekend.

Tehran has been supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, which Moscow has deployed against Ukraine. Specifically, reports indicate that Iran has supplied Russia with shipments of the FATH-360 close-range missile system. Now, while this is a short-range missile, it's also equipped with a solid-fuel engine like its long-range counterparts. That means that Israel's strike could also impact Russia's supply line in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Now, in the category of the world's a small place and nothing happens in a bubble, in early August, the New York Times reported that Russia had begun delivering advanced air defense and radar equipment to Iran at the request of the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. This delivery, as we now understand, was more than a goodwill gesture, of course. It was a calculated move.

to shield Iran's ballistic missile industry, which is crucial to both Iranian and Russian strategic interests. Now, despite these efforts, Russia's air defense systems ultimately failed to protect Iran's facilities from the Israeli strikes, exposing a vulnerability in both nations' collaborative defense strategy. As the Wall Street Journal highlighted yesterday, Israel's airstrikes didn't just devastate Iran's missile production infrastructure,

They also delivered a reputational blow to Russia's arms industry. Despite Moscow's calculated move to supply Iran with advanced air defense systems, including the S-300 installations, either were three of those provided, these defenses failed to prevent significant damage from Israel's 100 fighter jet assault. This is only the latest in a series of embarrassments for Russian air defense technology. Ukrainian forces have previously succeeded,

in targeting both the S-300 and the more advanced S-400 systems. With these systems in use by Russia's closest allies and biggest arms customers that would include China, India, and Algeria, their vulnerability casts a doubt on Russia's standing as a reliable arms supplier on the global stage.

All right, coming up next, updates on Turkey's bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria following that deadly attack last week near Ankara. Plus, the Russian army is claiming advances in eastern Ukraine, capturing a strategic stronghold in Donetsk. I'll have those stories when we come back. Here's a question for you. Do you think you know who will win the presidential election? Or how many seats the Democrats or Republicans will win in the House or Senate?

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Welcome back to the BDB. Let's turn our focus to Turkey, where the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known as the PKK, has officially claimed responsibility for the deadly terror attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries, that's a major defense firm near Ankara, sparking swift retaliatory airstrikes by Turkey on PKK strongholds in Iraq and Syria. The PKK attacks last Wednesday left five dead and 22 injured.

as the PKK fighters used explosives and weapons to target the Turkish Aerospace Industries facility, which is key to Turkey's defense and aerospace industries. The PKK, in a statement on Telegram, referred to the assault as a, quote, act of sacrifice by its so-called, quote, Immortals Battalion. As we previously reported on the PDB, the PKK is a group that's

listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the European Union, and it's waged an insurgency for Kurdish autonomy in southeastern Turkey since the 1980s. That's a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. The group regularly operates from northern Iraq, prompting Turkey to conduct airstrikes on PKK strongholds there, and in Syria, where affiliated Kurdish groups maintain a presence.

In response to the Ankara attack, Turkey's Ministry of National Defense launched a series of retaliatory airstrikes hitting over 130 PKK-related targets across Iraq and Syria since Wednesday, reportedly destroying shelters and storage facilities and other PKK infrastructure. Turkish President Erdogan, according to state media, stated, quote, we will eradicate terrorism at its source, asserting that those responsible for the Ankara attack and

entered Turkey from Syria. Erdogan added that Turkey's military actions will continue until the PKK is defeated, stating, quote, no terrorist organization attacking our country will be able to realize its hopes, end quote.

However, Turkish strikes led to civilian casualties, particularly in northern and eastern Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, that's a UK-based war monitor, reported that 27 civilians were killed in the 24-hour escalation. According to the observatory, 84 drone strikes and 18 airstrikes targeted critical infrastructure, including power networks and other utilities. Ground assaults were reported in northeastern Syria,

resulting in 17 deaths and more than 60 injuries since Wednesday. The Turkish military maintains that its operations focused on neutralizing combatants and dismantling the PKK's support infrastructure, denying allegations of targeting civilians.

In addition to its military campaign, Turkey launched domestic security raids against suspected PKK sympathizers. Turkey's interior minister confirmed Friday that 176 individuals suspected of PKK ties were arrested in nationwide operations. Now, while these events were unfolding, Erdogan, who has taken a leading stance against Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas,

Well, he called on the Arab world to unite in opposition of Israel's, quote, genocide, claiming that Israel's actions extend beyond Gaza and warning that Turkey itself could be a future target. Erdogan went further and labeled Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, quote, the Hitler of our time, which is ironic since the Kurds in Turkey have also referred to Erdogan as the Hitler of our time. Okay, they haven't, but maybe you get my point.

Anyway, I don't know if Erdogan is a student of history, but maybe someone could remind him that Hitler was responsible for killing 6 million Jews, and that the current Middle Eastern conflict was started by Hamas terrorists slaughtering over a thousand Jews in southern Israel. So, really, the comparison doesn't stand up. Maybe, just maybe, everyone should stop with the "they're just like Hitler" comparisons.

It makes you look ignorant to compare anyone in modern times to Hitler. And it kind of normalizes Hitler. So, what do you say we all give it a rest? Shifting to the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow announced new advances in eastern Ukraine, claiming control over the village of Izmalivka,

located near a Ukrainian-held industrial hub. Now, this gain marks another step in Russia's eastward push, putting Ukraine's stretched thin defenses under mounting pressure. Russia reported Sunday that its forces captured Izmalika, five miles north of Kurokove. That's a Ukrainian-controlled industrial stronghold. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the capture, calling it a, quote, steady gain along the front lines.

Now, situated within striking distance of another village, the capture of Izmalivka gives Russia a tactical edge, allowing its forces closer access to population centers and critical supply routes. Meanwhile, Russia's aerial defenses were active just hours before the seizure, intercepting 51 Ukrainian drones in multiple regions, including near its western border.

Also, Russian President Putin issued a stern warning to the West on state television. Putin cautioned against providing Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of penetrating Russian territory, stating, "It's too early to say yet, but our military department is thinking about it and will offer various responses," signaling Moscow's readiness to escalate if Western support extends Ukraine's capabilities.

Now, in a parallel eastern offensive, Russian forces reportedly captured Selidovye, that's the last major town en route to Pokrovsk, which is a vital logistics center for Ukraine and Donetsk. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry-affiliated mapping service Deep State reported footage of Russian troops at the town's council office.

If Pokrovsk falls next, it will mark a major victory for Russia, further compromising Ukraine's defenses in Donetsk and threatening new vulnerabilities in the region.

Reports from Open Source Intelligence and Dragon Capital estimate Russian forces captured 65 square miles in the past week, which is Moscow's largest weekly gain in eastern Ukraine so far this year. That is an important development. As Russian forces advance into Netsk, they are also pushing to reclaim part of Russia's Kursk region, which was taken by Ukrainian troops during a surprise August counteroffensive.

Moscow has signaled plans to deploy reinforcements, including North Korean soldiers, to bolster efforts in eastern Ukraine and expel Ukrainian forces from contested areas.

With each frontline gain, Russia's position grows stronger, and Putin's over-the-weekend warning to the West signals that Moscow may adjust its military approach should Ukraine obtain extended-range weapons. The situation is increasingly problematic, of course, for Ukraine and its allies. There are growing concerns over the Ukrainian military's ability to defend critical supply routes and key positions, while of course raising the possibility of deeper Western involvement in the conflict.

At some point, though, the U.S. administration is going to have to decide one way or the other on the use of U.S. long-range munitions to target key Russian military targets. Putin knows that that would be a game-changer and not in a good way for his ambitions, which explains his latest bluster and warning.

So far, fear of escalation with Russia has kept the Biden-Harris administration from authorizing the use of U.S. weapons on a wider range of targets inside Russia. But without that authorization, there is a real possibility that Putin will continue making gains on the ground, capturing more territory, and eventually being the one who dictates terms of any settlement, if there is a settlement. Look, at some point, you either push all your chips into the center, or

or you look for a tactical exit. The current strategy, well, it seems to be neither, just an attempt to maintain the status quo. All right, up next in the back of the brief, Iran's supreme leader faces a setback as his newest ex-account is suspended after just one day. I'll have the details when we return.

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In today's Back of the Brief, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, didn't waste time racking up enemies on the social media platform X. Now, his brand new Hebrew language account, he has other accounts in different languages, was suspended just 24 hours after launch following a threat-laden post aimed at Israel, warning it had, quote, made a mistake in striking Iran over the weekend. Khamenei's first post on the Hebrew account read, quote, in the name of Allah, the

the merciful and compassionate, which of course set the tone. By Sunday night, X had shut down his Hebrew account. The Hebrew language debut came as Israel's air force struck back in retaliation at Iran's missile barrage from earlier this month by targeting critical installations, including air defense batteries and ballistic missile sites in Tehran.

Khamenei's suspended post was deemed inflammatory. Well, yeah, there's a surprise. The Supreme Leader of Iran, a nation with the stated objective of destroying another nation, posts something inflammatory. Who could have seen that coming? The Supreme Leader's post read, "...the Zionist regime made a mistake by retaliating. He warned that Iran would "...cause Israel to understand what kind of strength, ability, initiative, and will the Iranian nation has."

Now, for X, that was a bit too much, despite his policies allowing state entities some leeway on violent and hateful content. Now, how does one decide just how much leeway to give a nation when it comes to posting violent content? It's important to note that neither X nor owner Elon Musk has commented on the ban.

But Khamenei's other accounts in Persian, Arabic, English, and Bengali remain active, echoing similar threats. Apparently, it's only inflammatory if it's in Hebrew. People are like, geez, did you see what the Supreme Leader posted about Israel on the Hebrew language site? I don't know, it just comes across somehow less violent and inflammatory in English. My point is, I'm missing the logic train on this one.

Now, this is not Khamenei's first time getting booted off of social media. Mehta kicked the Supreme Leader off Instagram and Facebook earlier this year after his support for Hamas's 7 October 2023 terror attacks on Israel and, of course, for also posting one too many dance clips. However, the quick takedown of his Hebrew account on X shows Khamenei's efforts to provoke Israel are testing the patience of social media platforms.

Though, this time, X did respond faster than expected.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 29 October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. And don't forget, not that we would let that happen, but to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief simply by visiting pdbpremium.com. I told you it was so simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed.

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