October 21st, 2024: Netanyahu Survives Assassination Attempt, Israeli Intel Leak, & SpaceX vs California
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It's Monday, 21 October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

Coming up on today's show, after suffering considerable losses within their leadership structures over the past couple of months, Iran's proxies are striking back, launching a drone attack aimed at assassinating Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in his own home. We'll have the details in today's Spotlight.

Later in the program, we'll unpack a developing story out of Washington where U.S. officials have launched an investigation into the unauthorized leak of classified intelligence detailing Israel's plans to strike Iran.

And here's a pro tip for the US officials that are handling that investigation: Identify every individual who had access to the leaked documents and then polygraph each and every one of them. You're welcome. Counterintelligence investigations basically aren't rocket science, but they do require you to be aggressive, thorough, and persistent.

All right. Plus, North Korea is ramping up tensions, claiming that it found the remains of a South Korean drone in Pyongyang. Now they're blaming the South for the recent infiltration and threatening to declare war.

And in today's back of the brief, SpaceX is taking California regulators to court, claiming that its launches were blocked due to Elon Musk's political views. Now, surprisingly, Musk has an unexpected ally in this fight.

Governor Gavin Newsom. Oh, remember him? Well, there was a time, just a few short months ago, when Newsom was considered the bright bulb in the box of potential Democratic presidential candidates. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Less than a month after the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, not to mention Fawad Shukr and countless others,

And only days following the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah looked to return the favor against Israel, reportedly targeting Prime Minister Netanyahu for assassination. On Saturday, three drones were launched from Lebanon and crossed into Israeli airspace. Now, according to the Israeli government, the intended target of these drones was Netanyahu's house in the Mediterranean coastal town of Caesarea.

Israeli officials say two were intercepted by Israeli attack helicopters, but the third eluded them. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were in the residence at the time, and no injuries as a result of the attack were reported. Responding to the attempt on his life, Netanyahu issued a warning to Hezbollah, calling their actions a grave mistake.

In a post on X, Netanyahu wrote, "...this will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies in order to secure our future," adding, "...we will continue to eliminate the terrorists and those who dispatch them."

Now, this is actually the second strike aimed at taking out Netanyahu in recent months. Back in September, Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile toward Ben Gurion Airport when Netanyahu's plane was landing, the missile that that time was intercepted. In response to the attack, Israel, in turn, carried out at least 10 airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, which are home to Hezbollah's offices, as well as villages in southern Lebanon.

As a result of those strikes, the Israeli Defense Forces reported the death of Al-Hajj Abbas Salama, described by the IDF as a senior commander of Hezbollah's Southern Front.

Meanwhile, Israel has released new footage that they claim shows recently departed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar hiding underground in Gaza's tunnel network just hours before the attacks on October 7th of this past year. The video, according to the IDF, captures Sinwar and his family taking shelter beneath Qan Yunis in central Gaza, while civilians, of course, above, had no such refuge from the inevitable Israeli retaliation.

Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari noted that Senwar prioritized himself and his family using the tunnels as a personal bunker. Hagari said this was a luxury that the people of Gaza did not have, as Senwar always puts himself, his money, and Hamas terrorists above the people of Gaza."

It's worth noting that the video appears to show Senoir's wife, Abu Zamar, holding what appears to be a $32,000 luxury handbag as she fled into the tunnel alongside her husband. Yeah, sounds about right.

It's believed SINWARP had spent the vast majority of the past year underground, moving from tunnel to tunnel to thwart IDF efforts to locate and kill him. Hamas, however, fired back, of course, rejecting the claim as, quote, blatant lies. They called it a, quote, desperate attempt to save face for the defeated army, which was humiliated by Commander SINWARP and his brothers, end quote. Now, I don't think that that word humiliated means what they think it means. They said, quote,

The group insists that Sinwar was killed in combat, fighting alongside his forces at the forefront of Gaza's resistance. They continue to hail him as a leader who moved across various combat fronts in defense of the Palestinian people. Of course, Sinwar was caught while trying to flee Rafah with bodyguards, and when found in the rubble, he had over $10,000 in cash, fake IDs, including one from the UN, and of course, a roll of Mentos.

Sounds like what anybody would carry when going into combat. Or fleeing. Whichever. Coming up next, U.S. officials are investigating a major leak of classified information on Israel's strike plans against Iran, while North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, well, throws his teddy out of the crib. Again, claiming that debris from a South Korean drone was found in Pyongyang and threatening to declare war.

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Turning stateside, where the government is now reportedly investigating the leak of highly classified intelligence documents revealing Israel's potential plans for retaliatory strikes against Iran. The documents were intended for limited dissemination within the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, and that's the US and UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Now, first reported by CNN and Axios, the leaked documents assess Israel's response to Iran's 1st October ballistic missile strike and contain explosive revelations. One document hints at something that Israel has never publicly acknowledged or confirmed, and that would be its possession of nuclear weapons.

While the document indicates Israel has no current plans to use nuclear arms, this revelation could have geopolitical repercussions. The documents first appeared online Friday via a Tehran-based Telegram channel, sparking speculation about Iran's involvement. The channel previously published pro-Iran material, further fueling concerns that Israel's chief adversary may adjust its military planning considering the leak.

The leak follows last week's PDB coverage where the Biden administration suggested that Israel would limit its retaliation to targeted strikes on Iranian military assets, avoiding oil sites. However, on Saturday, anonymous U.S. officials indicated that Israel might be preparing to strike both military and oil targets.

The latest documents, those that were leaked dated 15 and 16 October, outline Israel's preparations for a potential strike on Iran. The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency reports movements in the documents of Israeli munitions, while the National Security Agency notes air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles. Although the leaks don't specify Israel's intended targets,

They suggest strikes on Tehran's military and oil interests could remain on the table. That's a fair bet. The leak comes at a highly sensitive moment in U.S.-Israeli relations. Israel has long kept its military plans, especially regarding Iran, closely guarded. The recent leaks of military operations could further strain the trust between the two nations.

Now, Mick Mulroy, a former CIA officer, cautioned, quote, trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked, that trust could be eroded, end quote.

The FBI, Pentagon and other intelligence agencies have launched investigations to determine whether the leak was an inside job or perhaps a result of a cyber breach. One U.S. official noted, quote, "These two documents are bad, but not horrible. The concern," he said, "is if there are more," end quote.

Adding to the alarm, one of the leaked documents mirrors the format of documents previously leaked by Jack Tishera. That was the Air National Guardsman who leaked military secrets about the Ukraine war back in 2023.

Alright, shifting to the Korean Peninsula. North Korea claims that it found the wreckage of a South Korean drone in Pyongyang, accusing Seoul of launching covert operations over its skies. This discovery further escalates tension between the two nations, of course, with the regime issuing a stark warning that any future airspace violations will result in a "declaration of war."

The Korean peninsula, of course, is already on edge, with tensions at their highest point in years. Since May, North Korea intensified its military activities, conducting a series of missile tests while solidifying their ties with Russia. These tactics have been accompanied by a psychological war, with North Korea sending balloons filled with trash into South Korea

while South Korea retaliates by blasting K-pop and propaganda into the North. Now, I know, I know on the surface it sounds bizarre, trash balloons and K-pop, but underneath the strange back and forth is the real potential for this to turn into a very serious shooting match.

On 12 October, North Korea's state-run media, KCNA, released images of the wreckage, showing a damaged drone with V-shaped wings, which they claim confirms Seoul's covert operations. North Korean forces reportedly recovered the debris, alleging that the drone had been used to drop anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets on three separate occasions this month.

In a strongly worded statement, North Korea's defense ministry warned that any further military ground, air, and waters violation by South Korea would be considered a, quote, grave military provocation against the sovereignty of the DPRK, adding that such incidents would trigger immediate retaliatory attacks. The regime additionally accused South Korea of using the same drone model displayed during a military parade in Seoul earlier this month.

Now, South Korea's response has been dismissive. The Joint Chiefs of Staff labeled North Korea's claims as, quote, unworthy of responding. Despite the regime's accusations, Seoul remains mostly tight-lipped, stating that it was unable to verify the accuracy of North Korea's claims. Conversely, one South Korean lawmaker reviewed the images and identified the drone as a surveillance model.

With tensions boiling, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un renewed his warnings about the potential use of nuclear weapons against the West. Earlier this month, Kim accused South Korea and the U.S. of escalating military cooperation, particularly through a new deterrence guideline signed in July. This agreement aims to integrate South Korea's conventional forces with U.S. nuclear capabilities to counter Pyongyang's growing threat.

The agreement is part of a broader effort by Seoul and Washington to strengthen their alliance in the face of North Korea's continued missile tests and nuclear advancements.

All right, coming up in the back of the brief, a story, oh look, that isn't about global conflicts and war and crisis and chaos. SpaceX is suing California regulators, alleging its launches were blocked due to Elon Musk's politics. And in a surprising twist, Governor Gavin Newsom is siding with Musk on this one. I'll have the details after the break.

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In today's Back of the Brief, Elon Musk's SpaceX has filed a political discrimination lawsuit against the California Coastal Commission, accusing the state agency responsible for safeguarding the coastline of blocking its efforts to expand rocket launches from California's central coast, not for environmental reasons, but due to Musk's social media activity.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court, alleges the commission overstepped its authority by focusing on Musk's controversial comments on X, formerly Twitter, of course, during a vote that rejected SpaceX's request to boost annual launches from 36 to 50 at Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Space Force, which partners with SpaceX to launch Falcon 9 rockets and deliver Starlink satellites into orbit, had already approved the proposal.

At the commission's 10 October meeting, members voted 6-4 against the expansion, and according to SpaceX's lawsuit, their decision wasn't driven by coastal or environmental concerns. Instead, the commissioners referenced Musk's political and social media activities. Commissioner Gretchen Newsom, no relation, by the way, to Gavin Newsom, criticized Musk for, quote, spewing and tweeting political falsehoods, end quote. Well, that's

Sounds like someone's about to flop onto the fainting couch. Musk's lawsuit claims comments like that reflect political bias, with the company arguing the focus on Musk's personal views should have had no bearing on the regulatory decision. Surprisingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom, not exactly known for cozying up to Elon Musk, backed Musk in support of the lawsuit. Speaking after a campaign event for Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina,

Newsom stated, quote, "I'm with Elon." Hmm, how about that? Newsom suggested that the commission mishandled the situation by letting Musk's political activities influence the debate, adding, quote, "You can't bring up that explicit level of politics." It's important to note that two of Newsom's appointees voted for the SpaceX proposal, and his administration had been working with the Space Force to address environmental concerns surrounding the launches.

The federal lawsuit proceeds without direct governor involvement, though Newsom's public support of Musk's case would, you would think, add pressure to the commission. SpaceX is not only seeking to overturn the decision, but also pushing for a ruling that confirms the launches fall outside the commission's authority.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, 21 October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. Of course, as you may well already know, to listen to the show ad-free, well, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting pdbpremium.com. And hopefully, over the weekend, you had the chance to check out our latest episode of the PDB Situation Report.

Our excellent guests this past week included former senior CIA officer, professor, and author of the excellent book, The Recruiter, Spying and the Lost Art of American Intelligence. Go get yourself a copy of that because you won't regret it. And Carolina Hurt, deputy lead for the Russia desk at the Institute for the Study of War. We covered a lot of turf during the interviews and frankly solved many of the world's problems.

Check it out on our YouTube channel. That's at President's Daily Brief and, of course, all podcast platforms. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.