November 26th, 2024: NATO Prepares For ‘Wartime Scenario’ & North Korean Missiles Contain Western Parts
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They're sitting in your coffee mug, Bob's your uncle. Go to blackoutcoffee.com, promo code PDB, for 20% off your first-time purchase. It's Tuesday, 26 November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

Today, we'll start things off with an alarming warning from a top NATO commander who's urging businesses to prepare for a, quote, wartime scenario, basically advising companies to adjust Western production to be less vulnerable to adversarial nations like Russia.

Later, satellite imagery shows North Korea ramping up its production of short-range missiles for use by Russia, some of which contain components sourced from the West. And then you have to ask yourself, is there nothing that Kim Jong-un won't do for his comrade-in-arms, Vladimir Putin?

Plus, a surprising cybersecurity risk. Chinese-made cranes used in American ports, responsible basically for 80% of U.S. container operations, could pose a national security threat. Oh, well, you could add that to a long list of other items, including telecoms equipment that U.S. regional providers have been installing for years. And, oh, then there's TikTok.

And in today's back of the brief, a troubling report on how Mexican cartels are exploiting the CBP One app used by migrants while the cartels are using it to track potential kidnap victims. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

We'll begin in Europe, where NATO's top military official is warning the alliance to prepare for a wartime scenario, as France and the UK reportedly consider putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. I honestly, I didn't have World War III on my 2025 bingo card, but there it is.

In remarks during an event hosted by the European Policy Center think tank on Monday, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO's military committee, asked businesses to prepare for a major conflict in Europe, urging them to bring their production and distribution lines back home in order to avoid blackmail or sabotage by Russia and China. That's according to a report from Reuters.

Bauer said increasing global instability caused by belligerent powers has left their supply chains vulnerable and time is running short, he said, to protect European interests from adversaries in the East.

Okay, frankly, I can't spot the lie in any of that. Bauer said, quote, if we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered, no matter what, then that's a key part of our deterrence. He added that while, quote, it may be the military who wins battles, it's the economies that win wars, end quote. Bauer is particularly concerned about China's outsized influence over critical global resources.

He noted that 60% of all rare earth materials are produced in China and more than 90% of rare earth minerals are processed or refined there. He also noted that the West is still disproportionately reliant on China for the chemical ingredients for basic pharmaceutical products such as sedatives, antibiotics, anti-inflammatories, and blood pressure medications. Yes, and...

And of course, if the West didn't learn that lesson during the pandemic, then I'm not sure that a NATO official raising this concern will sink in. Bauer warned, quote, we are naive if we think the Communist Party will never use that power. Business leaders in Europe and America need to realize, he said, that the commercial decisions they make have strategic consequences for the security of their nations, end quote.

The warning comes at a time of unprecedented escalation between Russia, Ukraine, and the broader NATO alliance. As we covered last week on the PDB, President Biden authorized the use of long-range American-made missiles for strikes inside Russian territory, removing restrictions that have long limited Kyiv's offensive options. Similarly, the UK gave Kyiv the nod to start using British-made storm shadow cruise missiles

inside Russia last Tuesday. Leaders in Ukraine quickly availed themselves of the new tools in their arsenal, employing both American-made A-TACMs and the British Storm Shadows in strikes last week.

Putin, of course, was displeased, responded by revising Russia's nuclear doctrine and launching an experimental medium-range ballistic missile, an IRBM, at a Ukrainian city on Thursday, which was widely taken as a demonstration of Moscow's nuclear capabilities.

Further inflaming tensions. Oh, that's good. Well, let's do that, shall we? France's Le Monde newspaper exclusively reported Monday that discussions have resumed among European powers about deploying Western troops and private military companies to Ukraine, particularly in light of the imminent arrival of some 10,000 North Korean troops to the Ukrainian battlefields.

Their proposals to deploy Western forces reportedly gained fresh momentum in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election. Fearing that the US may reduce financial and military support for Ukraine, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are spearheading a renewed push to deepen Europe's involvement in the conflict. While the sensitive discussions remain classified,

Sources told Le Monde, quote, Negotiations are underway between the UK and France on defense cooperation, specifically to create a solid core of European allies focused on Ukraine and broader European security, end quote. Additionally,

When asked about the possibility of putting boots on the ground, France's foreign affairs minister told the BBC, "We are not ruling out any option. We will support Ukraine as intensely and as long as necessary." Now, currently, there's no official authorization from any NATO members to deploy Western troops to Ukraine, but the proposals have reportedly been batted around for at least several months.

No surprises here, but Russia is not pleased by the development. This, of course, is the same Russia that's replenishing their military ranks with North Korean cannon fodder.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. You know, Peskov always seems confused over who started the war. Anyway, Peskov said the proposals were the result of some irresponsible hotheads in the UK and France, but ultimately dismissed the scenario as unrealistic, claiming that the majority of European leaders were against such a strategy. All right, coming up after the break, satellite imagery reveals North Korea is expanding missile production.

And Chinese-made cranes in U.S. ports pose an unexpected cybersecurity threat. I'll have those stories when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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Sticking with the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Putin's cronies in North Korea are apparently rapidly expanding a weapons factory that produces short-range missiles for Russia's war in Ukraine. Satellite images taken by the US firm Planet Labs show several new assembly and housing buildings under construction at a weapons manufacturing complex in the country's northeast.

That's the only facility in the hermit kingdom known to produce KN-23 solid-fuel ballistic missiles, according to a report from Newsweek.

While officials in Moscow and Pyongyang have long denied that North Korea is transferring assorted munitions to Russia, what nothing to see here, folks. Evidence from the battlefield, well, that tells a different story. Ukrainian military officials told CNN on Saturday that Russia has fired at least 60 North Korean KN-23 missiles at Ukraine this year. Now, in context, it's a staggering figure, accounting for nearly

a third of the 194 ballistic missiles fired by Russian forces throughout the entire year of 2024. And their use of these missiles, frankly, is only accelerating. Since August, Putin's forces have increasingly pivoted to using ballistic missiles rather than cruise missiles in their bombardments of Ukrainian cities. And that could be and probably is a sign of just how depleted their weapons stores are

and how reliant they've become on the military resources of their pals in Pyongyang.

Now, here's an interesting tidbit that you could toss around during cocktail parties, should you be so inclined. Analysis of the missile debris by Ukrainian investigators reveals that the missiles employ U.S. and European-designed circuitry in their guidance systems. Now, this is very important and very interesting. Only nine Western manufacturers based in the U.S. and Europe produce such components, suggesting, of course, the existence of

of an active supply pipeline to bypass sanctions, obtaining, of course, and delivering these parts to North Korea. Officials with Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise said, quote, everything that works to guide the missile to make it fly is all foreign components. All the electronics are foreign. There's nothing North Korean in it.

They added, quote, the only thing Korean is the metal, which quickly rusts and corrodes, end quote. Well, there's quite the backhand slap. Exactly how these components are making their way into the hands of the North Koreans is not entirely clear. But Ukrainian investigators say the evidence increasingly points to China as the conduit. Well, I, for one, am shocked. International watchdog groups who have traced some of these components say Chinese companies are often the last known custodians

of the critical parts. The technologies are then likely diverted through intermediaries, though watchdog groups stress that they have little hard evidence to go on. Ukrainian officials blame poor sanctions enforcement by Western nations and are increasingly demanding that manufacturers be held responsible for where their components end up.

The revelation comes as North Korean troops prepare to join Russia's counter-offensive in the partially occupied Kursk region inside Russia. According to most estimates, around 10,000 North Korean soldiers have completed their training alongside Russian forces and are ready for imminent deployment.

As a reminder, the two belligerent powers signed a landmark mutual defense pact back in June and they traded friendship bracelets, too, which formalized the role of North Korea as a crucial supply base for Russian military needs. Okay, shifting stateside, the U.S. Coast Guard has sounded the alarm on a critical national security threat,

Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes, responsible for nearly 80% of container operations in American ports, could be exploited through remote access capabilities. And when I say could be, I mean they probably are. The latest maritime security directive from the Coast Guard issued on 13 November outlines heightened security measures to address these risks.

The directive builds on a February executive order by President Biden, remember him, aimed at bolstering cybersecurity measures at U.S. ports, intensifying scrutiny of Chinese-made cranes. A subsequent congressional investigation in March uncovered a, quote, pattern of suspicious device installations on cranes manufactured by China-based ZPMC. These installations included ZPMC,

cellular modems over a dozen at one U.S. port alone actively connected to operational crane components. Another modem was found in a server room at a separate port. That doesn't sound sketchy. While remote monitoring features are common for maintenance and operations, the Congressional probe revealed that ports using ZPMC cranes had not requested these capabilities. This finding intensified fears and concerns that the equipment could be exploited for espionage

or operational interference. To mitigate these risks, the Biden administration imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese- oh look, there's a tariff- on Chinese-made cranes ordered after May of this year, though exceptions have softened its impact. The American Ports Association criticized the move, arguing that it raises operator costs without offering viable alternatives.

Meanwhile, the Coast Guard, in collaboration with the Department of Defense and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued revised guidelines to safeguard port infrastructure from potential cyberattacks. Port operators are required to contact their local Coast Guard office to obtain a copy of the new rules, which remain classified for security reasons. However,

The directive emphasizes stricter monitoring and cybersecurity protocols to protect critical systems. Now, despite these efforts, a recent Department of Homeland Security report revealed slow adoption of cybersecurity measures among private operators. Only 36% have engaged with Coast Guard-provided cybersecurity services. Huh. It's almost like they're prioritizing money and a profit over national security.

To address this gap, DHS and CISA introduced a training platform for port operators, though uptake has been limited. The new directive underscores the urgency of securing America's ports against evolving threats. As critical hubs in the U.S. supply chain, these ports face mounting pressure to adapt to sophisticated cyber risks and ensure that they remain impervious to foreign interference. All right, coming up in the back of the brief.

A troubling report on how Mexican cartels are exploiting the CBP One app to track and to target migrants for kidnapping. I'll be right back.

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In today's back of the brief, some disturbing news from the border. Mexican cartels are reportedly exploiting the U.S. Customs and Border Protection CBP One app to kidnap and extort migrants, exposing vulnerabilities in the system intended to manage border security. The CBP One app is a tool, as you probably know, designed to streamline asylum appointments at border crossings.

It was introduced by the Biden administration to organize asylum claims and reduce the burden on an already overtaxed system, as they can use the app to generate appointments for processing. While the app is meant to make things simpler for everybody, it's also inadvertently providing criminal networks with a tool to target vulnerable individuals. Oh look, so it is making life simpler for

For the cartels, migrants are often forced to display their app-generated appointments when purchasing travel tickets, making them easy prey for corrupt officials and ticket agents, who then tip off cartel kidnappers as to their whereabouts.

Camps near the border, where asylum seekers await their appointments, have become hubs for violence and exploitation. Criminal organizations dominate these camps, kidnapping and extorting migrants or forcibly relocating them. Migrants stranded in cartel-dominated areas like Tamaulipas endure horrifying conditions, with cartels operating as de facto authorities and dictating access to border crossings.

Even official efforts, such as Mexico's recent government busing initiative, have been criticized for relying on the same officials accused of abusing migrants.

Advocacy groups warn that the lack of security measures around the app and the broader reliance on technology for migration management have left migrants increasingly exposed. These groups are calling for safeguards and reforms to counter criminal exploitation and ensure the safety of those seeking asylum. The reliance on the CBP One app reflects a trend in the Biden administration's border policies

leaning heavily on technology to manage the inflow instead of substantive reforms to encourage legal migration and discourage illegal crossings.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 26 November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And as you likely heard around the office water cooler today, if you want to listen to the show ad-free, well, you can do that. All you have to do is become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. We've made it very, very simple.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.