November 21st, 2024: US Embassy Evacuated in Kyiv & China’s Role in Baltic Sea Cable Mystery
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It's Thursday, 21 November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Today, we begin with the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, prompted by intelligence-fueled concerns of a potential significant Russian airstrike. Now, this comes as Kiev's forces begin launching U.K.-made storm shadow missiles deep into Russian territory.

Later in the show, an update on the alleged sabotage of underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, with Denmark now monitoring a Chinese ship suspected of involvement.

Plus, a big setback for U.S.-China relations as Beijing's defense minister refuses to meet with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Hmm. I mean, whose idea was it to close out 2024 with escalating conflict and chaos? It's because it's not a good look.

And in today's back of the brief, Donald Trump makes another major staffing decision, announcing that former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker will serve as U.S. ambassador to NATO. That's a bit of a switch. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

In a sign of just how fast tensions between the West and Russia have escalated in recent days, the U.S. temporarily closed the American embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday, the first in more than 1,000 days of fighting since the war broke out in February of 2022. And when I say since the war broke out, I mean since Putin invaded Ukraine.

The closure came with an emergency warning from embassy personnel who cited intelligence about a, quote, potential significant air attack that could imminently strike the Ukrainian capital. Employees were told to prepare to shelter in place in the event an air alert was triggered. That's according to a report from the Washington Post. The

The surprise announcement rattled other European allies, as you might imagine, with the Italian, Greek and Spanish embassies in Kiev all following suit on Wednesday out of an abundance of caution. The Italian embassy echoed the concerns of U.S. officials, warning of a, quote, possible high-intensity airstrike.

The intelligence about a possible large-scale attack came after Ukrainian forces struck a Russian arms depot on Tuesday, employing American-made long-range missiles in their attack for the first time. Russia has drawn a red line over the use of long-range Western-built weapons inside their territory, prompting concerns, of course, that Moscow may scale up their attacks in response.

But the preemptive move to close the U.S. embassy appears to have irked Ukrainian officials. And when was the last time you heard anyone say irked? Who said the U.S. and other European nations were letting fear cloud their judgment and are playing directly into the hands of Russian despot slash dictator slash president for life Putin.

Ukraine's foreign ministry issued a statement noting that airstrikes were a daily reality in Kyiv and urged their allies to keep their cool, quote, without adding to unnecessary informational escalation.

Indeed, Kyiv is bombarded by Russian forces on almost a nightly basis. The outsized reaction on Wednesday from American officials fueled speculation that this time the U.S. fear the embassy could be directly targeted. OK, look, I'm I'm no secretary of defense, but if Russia were reckless enough to target the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, you would have to assume that that's what we call a red line.

But Ukraine's military intelligence service, the GUR, said that the intelligence prompting the closures has all the signs of being a Russian disinformation campaign. The GUR wrote on Telegram, quote,

resorts to measures of intimidation and psychological pressure on society, end quote. A senior advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky also chimed in, noting, quote, Moscow has one instrument, which is to scare. I would like our partners to be more careful as to the information coming from Russia, end quote.

Regardless of the veracity of the intelligence, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department said the embassy would reopen and resume normal operations on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military is already leveraging Western-built long-range weapons to their advantage after getting the green light from the White House and NATO allies earlier this week.

According to anonymous military officials in Kyiv, Ukraine fired their first volley of British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, following their first use of American-made attack missiles on Tuesday. While details of the strike are difficult to verify at this time, Russian telegram channels reported that as many as 12 Storm Shadow missiles were fired into Russia's partially occupied Kursk region.

Britain had previously restricted the use of these missiles to targets within Ukrainian territory, but officials have said the arrival of some 10,000 North Korean troops to the battlefields in recent weeks, well, that merited a more concrete response from Western allies of Ukraine.

With a range of roughly 155 miles, the storm shadow missiles are said to be a perfect tool for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores far from Russia's border with Ukraine. While analysts say the long-range weapons are unlikely to give Ukraine a decisive edge over Russia in the conflict,

they may help Kiev solidify their current position, strengthening their hand, of course, if Russia ever agrees to come to the negotiating table.

All right. Coming up after the break, Denmark monitors a Chinese ship suspected in Baltic Sea cable sabotage. Now, that's not a sentence I've ever said before. And Beijing's defense minister snubs a meeting with the U.S. Secretary of Defense. I'll have those stories when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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Welcome back to the PDB I want to return to our coverage of the suspected sabotage of undersea fiber optic cables earlier this week as European investigators focus on a Chinese cargo ship that was recently docked in Russia Hmm, maybe there's a clue in there somewhere

As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, two telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were severed in quick succession late Sunday night and early Monday morning, fueling suspicions that Russia had engaged in a hybrid sabotage operation meant to intimidate Ukraine's NATO allies. One of the cables impacted connects between Sweden and Lithuania, while the other links Finland and Germany. While

While details of the investigation were initially sparse, authorities in Sweden and Denmark said Wednesday that they are focused on a Chinese bulk carrier vessel currently sitting idle in Danish waters. The Danish Navy is currently shadowing the Chinese registered cargo ship, which they said passed directly over the cable Sunday evening into Monday at roughly the same time that the damage occurred. The

The ship had previously been docked at a port in western Russia. Oh, it's getting more interesting. Near the border of Estonia on 15 November. That's before heading west through the Baltic to the strait between Denmark and Sweden.

Sources within Sweden's National Operative Department said while the Chinese vessel is currently, quote, of interest, there may be other suspects. Authorities in both countries have deployed vessels to increase their surveillance of the area and said as of Wednesday, they had identified nearly 100% of the ships traversing that region at the time of the incident.

Authorities in all the affected countries have indicated that they believe the damage was caused deliberately.

While Russia has not yet been directly accused of orchestrating the sabotage, European leaders did take the opportunity on Tuesday to condemn what they called, quote, Moscow's escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries. Germany's defense minister came the closest to calling out Russia, saying Tuesday that, quote, nobody believes that these cables were accidentally cut off, end quote.

But U.S. officials contradicted their European counterparts, claiming that the suspected sabotage was, in fact, just an accident. Oh, it was an accident. Nothing to see here, folks. Two U.S. officials familiar with the initial assessment told CNN that the damage was not a deliberate attack, but likely caused by the anchor of a passing vessel dragging on the seabed. Really?

or the U.S. officials don't want to escalate the situation by calling out Russia and potentially China for acts of sabotage. If you just ignore their bad behavior or hope and wish hard enough, maybe they'll change their ways.

If it was a matter of careless anchor management, then it would seem to be an amazing coincidence. As we noted on yesterday's program, the damage occurred just one week after a senior advisor to Putin baselessly implied that the U.S. and U.K. were planning to target undersea cables.

and a little over a month after U.S. defense officials warned that Russia was assembling a sabotage unit to target these critical pieces of global communications infrastructure. That's to say nothing of the fact that this supposed accident occurred twice within a 24-hour period. While anchor accidents have occurred in the past, they have never damaged two cables within such a short period of time.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, addressed the situation on Wednesday, rejecting speculations that they were involved as, quote, laughable and also, quote, absurd. Hmm.

Both laughable and absurd. A spokesman for China's foreign ministry also responded, claiming their vessels always abide by international laws and that they are committed to protecting critical seabed infrastructure. Well, OK, then that's that's good enough for me.

Shifting to U.S.-China relations, high-level military talks hit a snag this week as Beijing refused a Pentagon request for a meeting between Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, marking the first such pause in talks in a year.

According to a senior American defense official, the Pentagon extended the invitation as part of an ongoing effort to maintain open communication ahead of a summit of Asian defense officials in Laos. However, Beijing declined, pointing to a $2 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan in October, which included National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems aimed at countering Chinese threats in the South China Sea. The

The official expressed skepticism over this explanation. For some context, this year alone, the U.S. has provided $1.2 billion in long-term security assistance and an additional $567 million in military equipment to Taipei. That's on top of the $2 billion arms sale.

China, as I'm sure PDB listeners are fully aware, claims that Taiwan is its own territory So any nod to self-governance or its right to self-defense is seen as an affront by Chinese government officials Beijing used similar grievances to justify suspensions of communication in the past These included the 2022 spy balloon incident, we all remember that

Sanctions and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan two years ago And of course that visit sparked a complete breakdown in military communications And escalated tensions in the region

While the military meeting was rebuffed, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Biden in Peru to discuss broader security concerns, including Taiwan. This dialogue comes against the backdrop of years of interrupted military communication, with Beijing frequently using cutoffs as a diplomatic tool.

Notably, after Pelosi's 2022 visit, China ramped up its military aggression in the region, leading to a historic summit last November where Xi and Biden agreed to reopen dialogue and de-escalate tensions.

Since then, U.S. and Chinese officials have held multiple high-level meetings, including with China's current defense minister this summer in Singapore. However, Dong's role is viewed as largely symbolic, given Beijing's ongoing anti-corruption crackdown within the People's Liberation Army, which frankly has led to three different defense ministers in as many years. So, you could say that Dong may not be long for that position.

Hmm.

Despite this, American officials emphasize that maintaining military communications is critical to preventing unintended escalation, even at symbolic levels. Beijing's refusal to meet this week raised concerns about a potential return to broader communication breakdowns. However, President Biden struck an optimistic tone during a press conference earlier this week, stating, quote, at multiple levels, our leaders are now regularly talking to one another, end quote.

And frankly, in today's world, maintaining some form of open line of communication is critical. All right. Coming up in the back of the brief, Donald Trump continues to fill out his administration, announcing his pick for ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known as NATO. I'll be right back.

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In today's Back of the Brief, President-elect Donald Trump named former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker as the ambassador to NATO on Wednesday. That's a move that could be seen as reflecting Trump's longstanding skepticism of the transatlantic alliance.

Whitaker's appointment is noteworthy given his background in law enforcement rather than traditional diplomatic or foreign policy and international security experience. He previously served as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa under President George W. Bush and briefly as Acting Attorney General during Trump's first term from November 2018 to February 2019.

Though once considered for Attorney General, the nomination ultimately, of course, this time around, went to Matt Gaetz. In a statement from Trump, he described Whitaker as a, quote, strong warrior and loyal patriot who will stand firm in the face of threats to peace and stability. As NATO ambassador, Whitaker is expected to champion Trump's push for increased defense spending among NATO members.

Trump has long criticized member nations for failing to meet the alliance's 2% GDP defense spending benchmark. That's a demand he's used to pressure allies into sharing more of the financial burden. Trump's efforts have yielded results, frankly. NATO reports that the number of compliant countries grew from three, only three, in 2014 to 18 in early 2024.

Whitaker's role is also expected to influence U.S. policy on NATO's involvement in the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump has signaled plans to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine, insisting that European nations take on more responsibility. He's hinted at prioritizing negotiations to end the conflict, though there are frankly few details available at this stage.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, 21 November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And of course, as you probably heard from a host of celebrities, to listen to the show ad-free, well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. There, I told you it was simple.

I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.