November 20th, 2024: Undersea Sabotage: Russia Accused of Cutting Baltic Cables & Operation Deutschland Revealed
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It's Wednesday, 20 November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

We're starting today with allegations that Moscow is engaging in some deep sea sabotage as two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea linking Finland to Germany have been severed. European leaders are pointing fingers at Russia, calling it a potential act of hybrid warfare. We'll have the details.

Later in the show, newly uncovered documents reveal that Germany's armed forces have begun executing a covert strategy called Operation Deutschland, a 1,000-page blueprint for preparing for large-scale conflict.

Plus, American diplomats are in Lebanon this week as reports emerge that Hezbollah has agreed to a U.S. ceasefire proposal that could, I say could, and that would mean possibly, bring an end to the war with Israel. And in today's back of the brief, President-elect Trump has made another major decision regarding his second term cabinet, choosing a China hawk to lead the U.S. Commerce Department.

But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

As the conflict in Ukraine takes a sharp turn towards further escalation this week, it appears Russia is also seeking to intensify their shadow war against Kyiv's NATO allies. European governments accused Russia on Tuesday of expanding their hybrid attacks on Ukraine's Western allies after two critical Internet cables in the Baltic Sea were severed in quick succession late Sunday evening.

One of the cables links Finland and Germany, while the other connects Sweden to Lithuania. While an investigation is ongoing by European authorities, officials suspect that the Kremlin is behind this major act of sabotage. That's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. Baltic countries, such as Lithuania, have boosted surveillance of their waters in response, though European leaders have so far stopped short of directly accusing Russia.

Germany's defense minister said, quote, nobody believes that these cables were accidentally cut off. Therefore, we must conclude without yet knowing specifically who was behind it, that this is a hybrid operation, end quote. Preliminary findings from the investigation suggest the cables were likely cut in Swedish economic waters in an area where the two cables briefly intersect.

Given the damage, investigators have concluded it must be the result of human interference rather than a natural event.

Officials said the incident has caused only minor disruptions to Internet and telecommunications services, adding it will likely take up to 15 days to repair the damage. Still, the incident represents an escalation as these marine fiber optic cables are a critical piece of global communications infrastructure that provide Internet and telecommunications connectivity to virtually every corner of the world.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Britain issued a joint statement Tuesday saying, quote, Moscow's escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries are unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks, end quote. Leaders in Warsaw said if such attacks continue, they will close all remaining Russian consulates in Poland.

The incident came just weeks after U.S. officials warned Russia was assembling a, quote, sabotage unit consisting of submarines and drones to target underwater Internet cables under the direct orders of the Russian Defense Ministry.

The officials said the U.S. has been tracking increased Russian military activity around key undersea cables for months. Now, I want to stress again that these cables serve as the backbone of Internet and telecommunications traffic around the world. Depending on the scale of sabotage, an attack could have, of course, a devastating global impact.

disrupting everything from financial and energy markets to the basic operations of governments and their militaries, not to mention the damage it could do to TikTok.

At the time, the U.S. officials said that due to the protracted war that Russia is waging in Ukraine, the Kremlin's willingness to engage in ever more extreme acts of belligerence has significantly increased. Their position was likely further hardened after President Biden authorized on Sunday Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russian territory, prompting threats of nuclear escalation.

If officially linked to the Kremlin, the attack on undersea cables represents a new dimension in Russia's shadow war against the West. Now, as we've been extensively covering here on the PDB, Russia has been waging a campaign of sabotage against allies of Ukraine across Western Europe and North America since the war began, with attacks escalating across 2024.

Russia's shadow campaign involves arson attacks, espionage, cyber attacks, targeted assassinations, and political strong-arming, and is aimed at destabilization, spreading essentially panic among the European public and sowing doubts about supporting Ukraine. A September op-ed published in the Financial Times by the heads of the CIA and MI6 warned that Russia is only planning to intensify those efforts as the war in Ukraine drags on.

All right. Coming up next, secret German military plans for large-scale conflict are exposed, and reports suggest Hezbollah may accept a U.S. ceasefire deal to end their war with Israel. I'll have those stories when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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Welcome back to the PDB.

Sticking with the threat of wider war in Eastern Europe, top secret papers have emerged in Germany detailing their military's covert strategy in the event a large-scale conflict breaks out. According to a report from a German newspaper, the 1,000-page plan, dubbed Operation Deutschland, has been agreed upon amongst Germany's most senior politicians and outlines their plans for a World War III scenario.

As part of this strategy, we learned that Germany has created emergency plans to move some 800,000 NATO troops and some 200,000 vehicles into its territory if the current fighting in Ukraine devolves into an all-out war. Germany would serve as a staging ground for NATO troop movements into potential theaters of conflict throughout Eastern Europe. The

The Hamburg Chamber of Commerce recently held their first official meeting regarding these plans, but as you may recall, details of the strategy first began leaking out in July, after media reports claimed wartime preparations were intensifying across Eastern Europe.

Back in July, a spokesman for the German military said, quote, the ability to quickly relocate large NATO troop contingents to the alliance's eastern flank in the event of a deterioration in the security situation is the central pillar of conventional deterrence.

He really needs to work on his run-on sentences. Speaking of Germany's vital role as a NATO logistics hub in the event of a war, the spokesman added, quote, Germany's essential task is to guarantee the planned deployment and supply of Allied and German forces, especially through host nation support as a whole-of-government task with Germany as a central hub, end quote. A

According to Newsweek, the plan calls for spreading the 800,000 NATO forces across the country's arterial routes with a focus on protecting a critical 300-mile-long highway that runs across the country from west to east, ending near their border with Poland The highway, along with several key bridges along the route, are expected to be key targets for Russian airstrikes in the event of a war

The top secret documents also reportedly identified German infrastructure critical to military operations, advising that certain buildings and facilities be fortified against attack. Additionally, it outlines plans to make German industries more self-sufficient, advising companies to build their own diesel generators or wind turbines to limit the impact of potential attacks on their power grid or energy supply lines.

An official with the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce said, "We must raise awareness of how important a well-prepared and resilient economy is for Germany's civil and military defense." Now, Germany isn't the only European country accelerating wartime preparations. On Monday, officials in Sweden distributed millions of pamphlets to their citizens advising how to prepare for war.

Among other things, the pamphlets discuss the country's early warning systems and how to seek shelter during an air raid. Similarly, Norway has sent instructions to their citizens on how to manage on their own for up to a week if a war breaks out. I think they should be able to manage for up to a week on their own.

Finland also recently released a digital booklet advising their citizens on how to prepare "for incidents and crises." These European nations have good reason to be concerned about which direction the war in Ukraine may turn. All right, shifting to the Middle East.

Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal with Israel, described by American envoy Amos Hochstein as a, quote, real opportunity to end escalating hostilities. Hochstein, who is leading the U.S. mediation efforts, met with Nabi Berry, the Speaker of Lebanon's parliament and Hezbollah's endorsed negotiator, on Tuesday in Beirut.

Following their discussions, Hochstein underscored the moment's urgency, stating, quote, this is a moment of decision-making, adding, quote, it is now within our grasp. While he refrained from revealing details of the talks, Hochstein stressed the urgency of resolving the conflict and expressed hope for a breakthrough in the coming days.

Lebanon has expressed cautious optimism about the proposal and aid to Barry confirmed that a written response had been submitted to U.S. Ambassador in Beirut, Lisa Johnson, on Monday.

The aide emphasized that Lebanon's comments on the proposal were made in "a positive atmosphere," focusing on adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which, as we've been reporting, governed ceasefire terms since the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.

The resolution includes provisions banning Hezbollah activity in Lebanon's southern border zone up to the Latani River, terms that have historically been violated, raising questions about enforcement. Berry told an Arabic news outlet that the agreement was, quote, good in principle,

but noted unresolved technical issues. He reiterated Lebanon's reliance on the U.S. to guarantee Israeli commitments, framing this assurance as essential to Lebanon's involvement in the process. Israeli officials have acknowledged the ongoing negotiations but remain skeptical. Energy Minister Eli Cohen insisted that Israel's demands, including the removal of the Iran-backed terror group from the Israel-Lebanon border,

must be met before any agreement is finalized. Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a defiant tone, vowing to quote, systematically operate against Hezbollah even if a truce is reached. That's a position that Lebanon condemned as a violation of its sovereignty.

All right. Coming up in the back of the brief, Donald Trump plans to nominate Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, signaling an aggressive economic stance towards China. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

Let's talk security for a moment. Look, going online without ExpressVPN is like, well, it's like leaving your laptop unattended at the coffee shop while you run to the bathroom. Maybe you're thinking, hey, it's my neighborhood coffee shop. What's going to go wrong? It'll be fine. But what if one day you come out of the bathroom and your laptop is gone? Look, here's the problem. Connecting to unencrypted networks in cafes or hotels or airports, it puts your online data at risk.

Hackers can easily access sensitive information like passwords and credit card details on these networks. And frankly, hacking doesn't require advanced skills, just some cheap hardware making it fairly accessible to anyone. Your data is valuable. Hackers can and will sell it on the dark web, and there are plenty of buyers out there. Now a VPN like ExpressVPN creates a secure encrypted tunnel between your device and the internet,

protecting your data from theft. In short, a VPN is essential for keeping your online privacy safe. ExpressVPN is a top-rated VPN that hides your IP address, protecting your online activity from third parties. It's easy to use with one-click protection and works across all devices, ensuring privacy on the go. And also, get this, it's rated number one by tech reviewers like CNET and The Verge.

Look, it's just common sense. Why wouldn't you do what you can to protect your personal data and activities? For me, ExpressVPN is a logical, easy-to-use, and effective tool in the constant battle to maintain privacy and security. Secure your online data today by visiting expressvpn.com slash baker. That's expressvpn.com slash baker. You can get an extra three months free. Expressvpn.com slash baker.

This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online, and more personal info in places that could expose you to identity theft. That's why LifeLock monitors millions of data points every second. If your identity is stolen, their U.S.-based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed, or your money back. Get more holiday fun and less holiday worry with LifeLock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com slash podcast. Terms apply.

In today's Back of the Brief, President-elect Donald Trump tapped Howard Lutnick, he's the CEO of financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald, on Tuesday to head the Department of Commerce. Now, Lutnick, a co-chair of Trump's transition team, will take charge of the administration's tariff and trade agenda that's a cornerstone of Trump's economic vision.

A longtime ally of Trump, Lutnick has been a vocal supporter of his policies, like the proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods and efforts to ease tax burdens for Americans. Describing himself as a, quote, strong capitalist, Lutnick praised Trump's, quote, competitive growth model for prioritizing innovation and

and job creation. For background, the Commerce Department is a pivotal agency at the intersection of business and national security and plays a critical role in restricting the flow of sensitive U.S. technology to competitors like China. Letnick's leadership is expected to intensify efforts to counter Beijing's ambitions in semiconductors and artificial intelligence while advancing policies that protect American manufacturers and workers.

Now, Trump praised Lutnick in a post on Truth Social, referring to him as a, quote, dynamic force on Wall Street for more than 30 years and emphasized his bold approach to economic reforms. Known for his advocacy of tariffs, Lutnick, according to The New York Times, stated in a podcast interview last month, quote, Don't tax our people, make money instead. Put tariffs on China and make $400 billion.

Lutnick advocates for using tariffs on China as an economic tool, arguing that they could generate significant revenue for the U.S. government.

Additionally, Letnick's tenure at Cantor Fitzgerald, a firm deeply invested in cryptocurrency and real estate, signals a potential shift in the Commerce Department's priorities. His expertise could expand the department's focus to include emerging technologies such as digital currencies as tools to keep America competitive on the global stage. If confirmed by the Senate, Letnick's Wall Street acumen and support for tariffs and focus on cutting-edge industries

position him to play a critical role in shaping the nation's economic and trade agenda. His nomination reflects a deliberate strategy to prioritize policies that put America first, strengthening the country's industrial base and its technology dominance.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, 20 November. Look, if you have any questions or comments, we'd love to hear from you. All you have to do is reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And, as you may have heard, to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting pdbpremium.com. It couldn't be any simpler. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.

Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.