November 19th, 2024: Fear of WWIII Grips Europe & Ceasefire Hopes in Lebanon
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It's Tuesday, 19 November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. Today marks 1,000 days, seriously, 1,000 days since the war in Ukraine began with Putin's invasion. Europe's most devastating conflict since World War II.

We'll examine the current state of the battlefield and explore how growing fears of an even larger conflict are unsettling parts of Europe. Later in the show, we'll uncover new details about North Korea's deepening role in the conflict with reports indicating that, get this, as many as 100,000 North Korean troops could ultimately be deployed to bolster Russia's efforts.

The severity of that move, were it to happen, really can't be underestimated.

Plus, more hope for a ceasefire in Lebanon, with reports suggesting that the government has issued a favorable response to a US-backed proposal aimed at ending the violence. Well, while that sounds hopeful, this only works if Hezbollah and their Iranian puppet masters want it to happen. The Lebanese government, frankly, isn't in a position to agree to or enforce a ceasefire.

And in today's Back of the Brief, new details emerge in the Israeli leaked intelligence scandal revealing that the Netanyahu aide behind the stolen documents was attempting to sway the hostage debate in the Prime Minister's favor. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Today marks a depressing milestone, 1,000 days since the war in Ukraine began.

According to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission, over 11,700 civilians have been killed and more than 24,600 have been wounded since Russia's full-scale invasion began

Ukrainian officials warn that the true numbers are likely far higher, especially in areas like the obliterated port city of Mariupol, now under Russian control. Tragically, Ukrainian prosecutors report that at least 589 children are among the dead. But while civilians have paid a heavy price, it's the soldiers on both sides who have borne the brunt of the bloodshed.

This large-scale, World War I-style conventional war fought with modern armies across entrenched front lines under relentless artillery barrages has led to hundreds of thousands of military casualties on each side, according to Western intelligence estimates. Western countries believe Russia has suffered the heaviest losses, sometimes losing over 1,000 soldiers a day during particularly fierce battles in the East.

Yet, Ukraine, with only a third of Russia's population, faces growing manpower shortages as the war drags on In February 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed a rare statistic: 31,000 Ukrainian service members killed He did not include figures for the injured or missing

Beyond the direct casualties, the war has, of course, wreaked havoc on Ukraine's demographics. Mortality rates have risen sharply, the birth rate has plummeted by nearly a third,

And more than 6 million Ukrainians have fled abroad, with another 4 million displaced internally. The United Nations estimates that Ukraine's population has declined by 10 million people, nearly a quarter since the war began. Let me just repeat that. Since the war began 1,000 days ago, Ukraine's population has declined by 25%.

On the ground, Russia now occupies around a fifth of Ukraine, and that's a landmass roughly the size of Greece. After their initial advance in early 2022, which brought Russian forces to the outskirts of Kiev and across the Dnipro River in the south,

Ukraine pushed Moscow's troops back during the first year of the war, but Russia still holds vast areas in the east and south, including nearly all of the Donbas region and the entire coast of the Sea of Azov.

Frontline cities like Mariupol, once home to half a million people, have been reduced to rubble under Moscow's control In the past year, Russia has consolidated its grip on these territories through grueling incremental gains in the Donbass Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun to strike back on Russian soil In August, Kiev launched its first major incursion into Russian territory, capturing, of course, a small portion of the Kursk region

A thousand days into this war, the scale of the destruction is staggering and fears of an even wider conflict, well, continue to ripple across Europe While the path ahead remains uncertain, one thing is clear: The fear that this war could spiral into a larger conflict has not diminished since the earliest days but, in fact, has only grown stronger And speaking of fears of a broader war,

In the Nordic nations of Sweden and Finland, NATO's newest members, governments are ramping up efforts to prepare their citizens for the possibility of conflict Millions of households are now receiving updated survival guidance, part of a sweeping campaign to help residents navigate the potential fallout of war

The guidance includes practical advice on enduring military conflicts, prolonged power outages, and communications blackouts. Citizens are being encouraged to stockpile essentials like bottled water, sanitary supplies, and even grow their own food at home to ensure self-sufficiency. Special recommendations for parents include preserving baby food, medication, and diapers to sustain young children during a crisis.

All right. Coming up after the break, new reports on North Korea potentially sending 100,000 troops to support Russia in Ukraine. And there's some hope for a U.S.-backed ceasefire in Lebanon. Apologies if I sound cynical. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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Welcome back to the PDB Continuing our coverage in Ukraine, North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to support Russia's war effort That's according to assessments from some group of 20 nations While such a large-scale deployment is not imminent, people familiar with the analysis, speaking anonymously to Bloomberg, believe that military support would likely occur in rotating deployments

Kyiv's ambassador to South Korea made a similar assessment earlier this month in an interview with VOA, stating as many as 15,000 North Korean troops could be deployed to the Kursk region or occupied areas in Ukraine, rotating every few months, assuming they, of course, survive Putin's meat-grinder battlefield strategy.

As we've been tracking on the PDB, North Korea previously deployed a minimum of 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region, where intense battles against Ukrainian troops have persisted since August. A source close to the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed replenishment mechanisms are likely, as continuous combat will diminish the contingent's effectiveness.

The scale of potential deployments suggests that Putin is digging in his heels, preparing for a prolonged conflict In return, Russia is providing North Korea with financial support and bolstering its technology capabilities Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that Moscow may be transferring cutting-edge technology related to nuclear weapons, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and reconnaissance satellites

South Korea has warned of a high likelihood of these exchanges, emphasizing, of course, the growing risks posed by this alliance. This evolving partnership between Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un draws implications far beyond Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a rare phone call with Putin on Friday, condemned the potential deployment of North Korean troops as a, quote, grave escalation. That's from a Bloomberg report.

Scholz is expected to urge Chinese President Xi Jinping to leverage his influence over both Kim Jong-un and Putin during their meeting at the G20 summit in Brazil The globalization of the war will feature prominently on the summit's agenda, with allies pressing for action to prevent further destabilization

Meanwhile, concerns have been raised since last week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, known as the APEC Summit, in Lima, Peru. Western nations there warn the growing alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang also threatens the Indo-Pacific region, already tense, of course, due to the deepening U.S.-China rivalry.

China's role in this crisis is under intense scrutiny. President Xi, a key strategic partner to Russia and North Korea, has remained publicly silent on the troop deployments. Analysts suggest the arrangement could strain Beijing's position, particularly as Xi faces potential economic pressures from new tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump.

Now, despite this, China maintained its stance against instability on the Korean Peninsula, as Xi emphasized in talks Saturday with President Biden on the sidelines of APEC. As the war threatens to possibly spread, the stakes have never, frankly, been higher. Whether through direct action at the G20 or by leveraging broader alliances, Western leaders face mounting pressure to contain the fallout of continued collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang.

All right, shifting to Lebanon, where U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is en route to Beirut after Lebanon responded positively to a U.S.-backed proposal aimed at ending the Israel-Hezbollah war.

As we previously reported, the proposal, relayed by U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson to Lebanese officials via Parliament Speaker Navi Berry last Thursday, is rooted in the framework of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war.

It calls for the disarmament and removal of Hezbollah operatives south of the Latani River near its southern border with Israel, limiting armed presence in the area to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces. In addition, the proposal seeks a 60-day cessation of hostilities as a foundation for a permanent ceasefire.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed on Monday in an interview with Al Arabi television that while large parts of the proposal have been, quote, positively agreed upon, Mikati noted that some points require clarification through face-to-face discussions with Hochstein, which will occur on Tuesday. The Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah reviewed the proposal and submitted its response to Lebanese authorities on Sunday evening, which a source within Lebanon's government

characterized as predominantly "positive" However, Israeli officials remain skeptical about the proposal's feasibility A sticking point is Israel's insistence on retaining the right to strike Hezbollah targets in case of ceasefire violations The Israeli finance minister reinforced this stance calling for full operational freedom for the Israeli military in southern Lebanon stating it is a "non-negotiable issue"

Even as diplomatic efforts gain traction, the conflict on the ground shows no signs of slowing. On Monday, an Israeli airstrike targeted a densely populated neighborhood in central Beirut, killing five people and wounding two dozen others, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Notably, the strike occurred near Beirut's government headquarters, marking the second consecutive day of Israeli attacks within Lebanon's capital.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has continued its missile barrage on Israel, firing over 100 rockets into northern Israel on Monday alone. A woman was killed and 56 others were treated at Rambam Hospital in Haifa, including 18 children, when a rocket struck a three-story building in a northern town. The IDF confirmed it intercepted many of the rockets, but several caused significant damage.

In central Israel, a Hezbollah missile targeted an area near Tel Aviv, causing extensive damage Five people were injured by shrapnel once seriously as interception fragments from Jerusalem's Iron Dome sparked fires and damaged buildings and vehicles Additionally, three drones were launched from Lebanon but were also intercepted Rocket sirens continued to sound overnight in northern communities near the Lebanese border

Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, new details in the Israeli intelligence scandal reveal that the Netanyahu aide behind the stolen documents was trying to influence the hostage debate. More on that when we come back.

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In today's Back of the Brief, an investigation into the murder of six Israeli hostages by Hamas and a subsequent intelligence leak exposed a plot to shift blame away from Prime Minister Netanyahu, triggering severe implications for Israel's national security. The Rishon Litzyon Magistrates Court revealed on Sunday that Elie Feldstein, a former Netanyahu aide, obtained a classified document in April from an IDF non-commissioned officer

Feldstein held onto the material until 6 September, when outrage after the hostage murders in late August erupted, fueling protests against Netanyahu's administration. Relatives of the slain hostages accused the Prime Minister of prioritizing political strategy over securing a hostage release.

Feldstein's leak of the classified document to the German newspaper Bild, timed during this backlash, redirected public anger away from Netanyahu and toward then-Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for the impasse in hostage release negotiations.

Feldstein initially tried to publish the document through Israeli journalists but was blocked by military censors Now determined to bypass restrictions, he turned to the German outlet The Bild article reported Hamas aimed to pressure Israel by using hostages as bargaining tools and narrative prosecutors argue that Feldstein deliberately pushed to deflect criticism from Netanyahu despite the security risks posed by the leak

After the report's publication, Feldstein contacted Israeli journalists to amplify the story. Facing skepticism about the document's authenticity from the journalists, he secured a physical copy along with two additional classified documents from the same NCO to prove the first document's legitimacy.

The court stated that Feldstein's leak compromised efforts to free the hostages and jeopardized national security, disrupting IDF and Shin Bet operations in Gaza

The IDF flagged the leak's severity, prompting Chief of Staff Herzli Ahlevi to involve the Shinbet in a parallel investigation. This joint probe uncovered what the court described as a "grave leak axis," implicating Feldstein, the reservist, and three additional suspects, including two IDF reserve officers.

Prosecutors charged Feldstein and the unnamed NCO with transferring classified material to harm the state and conspiracy Despite the fallout, Netanyahu is not a suspect The court stated that the investigation dismantled the leaked network, averting further harm to national security Prosecutors announced plans to indict Feldstein and requested continued detention for both suspects until a trial

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, 19 November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. Now, to listen to the show ad-free, well, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.