November 14th, 2024: Iran Backs Down, CIA Official Arrested Over Leak, & Ukrainian Car Bomb in Crimea
19:53 Share

We all have plans in life, maybe to take a cross-country road trip or simply get through this workout without any back pain. Whether our plans are big, small, spontaneous, or years in the making, good health helps us accomplish them.

At Banner Health, we're here to provide more than health care. Whatever you're planning, wherever you're going, we're here to help you get there. Banner Health. Exhale. Kickstart your day with a great taste of Blackout Coffee. Now, this great American family-owned business is all about premium coffee. It's fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Think about that. Go to blackoutcoffee.com, promo code PDB,

for 20% off your first-time purchase. It's Thursday, 14 November. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We're starting today with significant news out of the Middle East. Iranian sources told Sky News Arabia that the regime is holding off on any military response to Israel, reportedly in anticipation of negotiations with soon-to-be President Trump.

We'll have those details coming up later in the show. A major update on the White House leak involving Israeli plans to strike Iran with a CIA official now under arrest over the intelligence breach. Plus, Ukrainian security services reportedly orchestrated a car bomb attack in Crimea, killing a high-ranking Russian naval officer accused of war crimes.

And in today's Back of the Brief, President-elect Trump and President Biden met yesterday to discuss the transition of power. We'll break down what was discussed in their meeting. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. It appears Donald Trump's imminent return to the U.S. presidency is already giving America's adversaries pause.

In a surprising development out of Iran, senior sources inside the Islamic regime told Sky News Arabia on Wednesday that they've decided to postpone their planned third ballistic missile attack on Israel. The calculus reportedly changed with Trump's victory, and now it appears the mullahs are hoping to potentially strike a deal with the president-elect when he returns to the Oval Office in January, that is, if Trump is open to a discussion.

I want to stress that few details are known at this time, and other sources have yet to corroborate the information. The Iranian sources simply told Sky News, "The Iranian response against Israel is postponed until negotiations with President Trump begin." Reports in Iranian media say that Trump's victory has left the regime feeling uneasy.

As a reminder, Iran launched a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1. That was their second direct attack on Israel following a similar missile and drone bombardment in April. Both attacks were rendered largely ineffective on Israel's sophisticated missile defense systems.

Israel responded with targeted strikes on critical Iranian military infrastructure on the 25th of October, dealing a significant blow to Iran's drone and missile programs, along with their air defense network. Leaders in Tehran have been rattling the saber ever since, promising a larger retaliation against Israel involving more advanced missile systems. However, Iran went quiet on the subject

shortly after last Tuesday's presidential election, which by all accounts, they thought Trump would lose.

As for Iran's hopes for negotiation with Trump, there remains, well, let's put it this way, a lot of uncertainty. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, Iranian President Massoud Poseshkin signaled Monday a desire to engage in diplomacy when Trump returns to office, likely fearing the impact that Trump's promised maximum pressure campaign against the regime will have on their fragile economy.

Whether or not Trump is prepared to negotiate with a regime that, well, has spent years trying to assassinate him remains to be seen. While he's taken a hardline approach, the president-elect has also said he believes he can strike a better deal with Iran than former President Barack Obama did with the 2015 nuclear agreement.

We should note, the revelations from Sky News Arabia followed a statement on Tuesday by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that was addressed directly to the Iranian people. He said that it would be economic suicide for Iranian leaders to move forward with another direct attack on Israel, saying, quote, "...it would simply cripple Iran's economy."

Iran's economy has suffered under sanctions on their oil exports and the regime has lost a great deal of public support. Netanyahu estimated that Iran's October 1st missile attack cost the regime roughly $2.3 billion, money that he said they could have invested in their domestic budgets. Netanyahu continued saying, quote, There is one force putting your family in grave danger, and that would be the tyrants of Tehran. That's it.

Netanyahu added that if there is one thing the mullahs fear more than Israel, it is the people of Iran, saying, quote, that's why they spend so much time and money trying to crush your hopes and curb your dreams. He's not wrong.

The remarks, while clearly geared towards eroding support for the theocratic regime among Iranian citizens, can also be viewed as a thinly veiled threat to leaders in Tehran that if they strike again, Israel will seek to cause significant economic damage, likely by striking their oil interests.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is keeping up the pressure on Iranian-backed forces operating in Syria, carrying out several airstrikes on Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting weapons stores and a logistics headquarters. Further details regarding which Iranian-backed groups were targeted were not made public. All right, coming up next, an update on the White House leak of Israeli strike plans on Iran with a CIA official

Now under arrest. How pathetic is that? Plus, reports of a Ukrainian-orchestrated car bomb in Crimea targeting a Russian naval officer accused of war crimes. I'll have those stories when we come back.

Welcome back to the PDB. Sticking with the issue of Iran, U.S. authorities appear to have finally solved the mystery of who was behind the damaging leak of top-secret classified documents last month that detailed Israel's plans to retaliate against the Islamic regime.

A CIA official, identified as Asif William Rahman, was arrested in Cambodia on Tuesday over the leak and is currently being transported to a federal court in Guam to be formally charged with espionage-related offenses.

According to court documents filed Wednesday and reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Asif Rahman was indicted last week in federal court in Virginia on two counts of willful transmission of national defense information, charges that could land the staffer a very lengthy prison sentence.

While the court documents did not specifically identify Rahman as a member of the CIA, sources subsequently confirmed his employment at the intelligence agency to The Wall Street Journal. He held a top-secret security clearance and reportedly had access to sensitive compartmented information. Rahman, who previously lived in eastern Virginia, reportedly worked for the CIA overseas in Cambodia and other unspecified locations,

Though what kind of work he did for the agency is unclear. A motive for the leak also remains elusive. As a reminder, the classified documents first appeared online on the 18th of October via a Tehran-based telegram channel called Middle East Spectator, which said they received the documents from an anonymous source. The leak sparked speculation about Iran's possible involvement and fueled concerns that

that Israel's chief adversary would adjust its military planning based on the leak. The leak also triggered a desperate scramble within U.S. spy agencies to find the source. U.S. intelligence agencies have been plagued by leaks in recent years, and there were fears more documents could follow. It appears, however, that the initial tranche of documents were the only classified materials disclosed by Rahman.

The documents didn't specify Israel's intended targets, but suggested that strikes on Tehran's military and oil interests were still on the table.

Among other sensitive information, the leak included documents from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency detailing the movements of munitions and Israeli Air Force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles. Israel was forced to delay their response and shift strategies in the wake of the leak, though they ultimately retaliated with targeted strikes on critical Iranian military infrastructure on the 25th of October.

Alright, shifting to Russian-occupied Crimea, a senior Russian naval commander was assassinated in a car bomb explosion on Wednesday orchestrated by Ukraine's security service in retaliation for his involvement in civilian targeted missile strikes. Valery Cherenkovsky, commander of Russia's 41st Black Sea Missile Fleet in Sevastopol, was directly implicated in strikes responsible for hundreds of Ukrainian civilian deaths.

The security source added that Trankovsky's assassination was a meticulously planned operation by the SBU. Russia's State Investigative Committee, responsible for high-level criminal cases, condemned the bombing as, quote, an act of terrorism involving an improvised explosive device. Initially, Russian authorities withheld Trankovsky's identity. However, the Russian telegram channel Braza, with ties to state security, identified him as, quote, Valerie T.,

describing him as "Captain First Rank" and the former Chief of Staff of the Black Sea Fleet's Missile Brigade. Trankovsky's name also appeared on Peacemaker, an unofficial Ukrainian database listing individuals deemed hostile to Ukraine. After his death, his photo on the site was marked with the word "liquidated" in red, symbolizing Ukraine's intensified strategy against Russian officials implicated in civilian attacks.

The SBU defended the hit under international wartime law, citing Trenkovsky's alleged war crimes. Moscow maintains its Black Sea fleet does not target civilians. Well, shouldn't their word be good enough? Though Ukrainian sources argue otherwise, pointing to the extensive casualties and infrastructure damage left by their missile strikes. Following the assassination, Russian authorities released images of Trenkovsky's wrecked vehicle engulfed in flames.

This assassination points to an intensifying intelligence war in Crimea. It's obviously a strategic hub for Russia's Black Sea operations, or at least what remains of their Black Sea operations. Recently, Ukraine has heightened its focus on this area, targeting Russian assets and high-ranking officials. According to the Russian telegram channel MASH, Trankovsky had been under surveillance for a week before the bombing, a coordinated effort underscoring Ukraine's operational reach.

Since the war's outset, prominent pro-war Russians, including journalists and a former submarine commander, have been assassinated in attacks Moscow attributes to Ukraine. Additionally, Russia's Federal Security Service claims it dismantled a Ukrainian spy network in Crimea last December. Among the network's alleged targets included Crimea's Moscow-installed leader and a pro-Russian former Ukrainian parliament member who narrowly survived an assassination attempt.

As the conflict intensifies, Trankovsky's assassination signals Ukraine's relentless pursuit of Russian officials linked to civilian attacks. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Presidents Trump and Biden meet at the White House, and Trump officially announces his choice for Secretary of State. I'll have those details when we come back.

This episode is brought to you by Netflix. From the co-director of Shrek and the visionary behind Toy Story comes Spellbound, a magical new animated adventure starring Rachel Zegler, John Lithgow, Jennifer Lewis, Nathan Lane, and Titus Burgess with Javier Bardem and Nicole Kidman. When a powerful spell turns her parents into monsters, Princess Elion must journey into the wild to reverse the curse before it's too late. Watch Spellbound only on Netflix November 22nd.

Time to move? Skip the hassles of selling during the holiday season and sell your home directly to Opendoor. Request an all-cash offer in minutes, close, and get paid in days. You can even pick your close date so you can move after New Year's. Start your move at Opendoor.com or download the Opendoor app. Opendoor is represented by Opendoor Brokerage, Inc., licensed 0206-1130 in California, and Opendoor Brokerage, LLC, in its other markets. Terms and conditions apply.

In today's Back of the Brief, President Biden and President-elect Trump shook hands in the Oval Office on Wednesday, with Biden pledging a, quote, smooth transition after a, obviously, turbulent election season. The meeting brought back the tradition of a peaceful handover, a custom that Trump chose to forego in 2020. Biden spoke first, stating, quote, we'll make sure that you're accommodated in the transition. Trump, in turn, offered his thanks, stating, quote, politics is tough,

but it's a nice world today," setting a cooperative tone. For the brief period that the press was allowed to observe, it was clear that this meeting set the stage for a respectful transfer of power. The meeting, which lasted approximately two hours, was attended by White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and incoming Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

In an exclusive phone interview with the New York Post, Trump later described the meeting as, quote, mentioning that he and Biden had, quote, Trump told the Post, quote, end quote.

Okay, as an aside, and I find this interesting, think how confused all those Democrat voters are now who listen to their political leaders, including President Biden and VP Harris, declare that Trump is a fascist, a Nazi, and an existential threat to democracy. And then a week after the election, Biden sits down with Trump and says, hey, all's good. We're going to be fine.

I mean, at some point, you'd think the average citizen would chill out, realizing that most of what politicians say is hyperbole designed to get out the vote. Look, if President Biden and VP Harris genuinely thought that Trump was a threat to democracy and the world as we know it, do you think they'd sit down with him in a cordial setting? So my point is, maybe, don't take everything so literally. Now, for all you kids listening, earmuffs.

What I mean, folks, is learn the difference between shit and shinola. All right, shortly after departing the White House, Trump, in a statement, named Senator Marco Rubio as his selection for Secretary of State, adding another name to his growing Cabinet selections. Rubio, a Florida Republican, has extensive foreign policy experience from his service on the Senate Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committees and has long championed a strong America on the world stage. In his statement announcing his pick...

Trump praised Rubio as a "highly respected leader" and a "powerful voice for freedom," signaling confidence that Rubio will safeguard national interests and reinforce U.S. alliances abroad.

Trump's statement continued, adding, quote, I look forward to working with Marco to make America and the world safe and great again, end quote. Rubio, for his part, echoed Trump's vision on X, pledging to champion, quote, peace through strength and to prioritize American interests internationally.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, 14 November. If you have any questions for me, please reach out at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And of course, to listen to the show ad-free, should you be so inclined, well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then...

Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.