cover of episode The 2024 Elections: What Happened and What’s Next?

The 2024 Elections: What Happened and What’s Next?

2024/12/11
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DealBook Summit

People
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Alexis McGill Johnson
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Anita Dunn
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Jason Miller
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Kevin McCarthy
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Major Garrett
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Margaret Hoover
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Sarah Longwell
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Van Jones
Topics
Anita Dunn: 对拜登总统赦免亨特·拜登的决定表示赞同,但对赦免的时机、理由和对司法系统的攻击表示担忧。她认为亨特·拜登已经为自己的行为付出了代价,并且已经改过自新。她认为如果在任期结束时进行赦免,以同情的方式,将会更好。 她还批评了赦免的时机,认为在总统当选人公布其提名人选之际,以及在卡什·帕特尔周末事件发生之际进行赦免,时机非常糟糕。她认为总统的声明应该被视为其表面价值,总统有权改变主意。她认为,从民主党角度来看,在总统当选人公布其提名人选之际,以及在卡什·帕特尔周末事件发生之际进行赦免,时机非常糟糕。她认为,总统在竞选时承诺恢复法治,现在却似乎在说,也许现在不行了。 Jason Miller: 认为拜登总统对亨特·拜登的赦免反映了司法系统被政治化的现状,这正是特朗普获胜的原因之一。他认为,人们厌倦了司法系统在拜登和哈里斯领导下的政治化。他表示,特朗普将对1月6日事件的被捕者和被拘留者进行个案处理,并认为帕姆·邦迪接管司法部后,将改变司法部的基调和重点。他认为,司法部被武器化以攻击特朗普,这在历史上是前所未有的。他认为,在特朗普的第二个任期内,正义将平等地适用于所有人。 Van Jones: 认为拜登赢得中期选举反而给了他和许多华盛顿民主党人一种错误的安全感,最终导致了总统大选的失利。他认为,许多民主党人对拜登再次竞选感到失望,民调也显示了这一点。他指出,虽然民主党人爱戴拜登,但他们对拜登再次竞选感到失望。他认为,中期选举没有出现红色浪潮,但在之后的大选中出现了。他还谈到了人们对特朗普言论的担忧,以及民主党内部的反思。他认为,民主党应该允许党内异见存在,而不是将异见者排挤出去。 Alexis McGill Johnson: 认为民主党在中期选举后对民众的愤怒和不满估计不足,经济信息传递不足,未能充分关注男性选民的担忧。她认为堕胎问题是中期选举和总统大选中的一个核心问题,但民主党未能充分利用这一问题来争取选民。她认为,民主党应该加强经济信息传递,并将堕胎问题与经济挑战联系起来,以更好地争取选民。 Kevin McCarthy: 认为民主党在2020年和2024年的失利并非偶然,他们应该在四年前就意识到问题所在。他认为,民主党未能充分利用堕胎、最高法院等问题,以及重新划分选区等因素,导致他们在众议院选举中失利。他认为,民主党应该反思自身的问题,而不是一味地指责他人。 Margaret Hoover: 认为特朗普善于捕捉文化潮流并引领之,而拜登和哈里斯则未能做到这一点。她认为,特朗普在TikTok等社交媒体平台上的表现比拜登和哈里斯更出色,并且更能与民众产生共鸣。她认为,民主党未能有效地与民众沟通,未能充分利用民众的担忧和不满。 Major Garrett: 认为报道特朗普政府需要保持客观、清晰和准确,避免情绪化,否则特朗普会利用记者的情绪。他认为,总统职位是一个制度,而总统是这个制度的领导者,媒体应该客观地报道总统的言行。他认为,经济动荡会使人们在文化上转向右翼。 Sarah Longwell: 认为“永远反特朗普”运动已经过时,现在需要关注的是如何维护美国的民主价值观。她认为,共和党已经建立了一个多元化的工薪阶层联盟,而民主党未能有效地与这些选民沟通。她认为,选民已经厌倦了传统的政治家,他们希望看到更真实、更能与他们产生共鸣的候选人。 Kellyanne Conway: 认为媒体对特朗普的报道存在偏见,并且未能充分关注特朗普的支持者。她认为,媒体应该赢得民众的信任,并客观地报道新闻。她认为,特朗普选择的人选能够胜任他们的职位,并且能够有效地与民众沟通。 Jonathan Karl: 认为卡马拉·哈里斯的竞选活动未能有效地与媒体互动,这导致了她的竞选活动未能取得成功。他认为,民主党应该加强与媒体的互动,以更好地争取选民。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did President Biden pardon his son Hunter Biden, and why did it cover such an expansive time period?

President Biden pardoned Hunter Biden due to his struggles with addiction and the public pillorying he faced. The pardon covered an expansive time period, likely reflecting a broader context of compassion and accountability. Hunter has been sober since 2019 and has turned his life around.

Why did Anita Dunn disagree with the timing and rationale of Hunter Biden's pardon?

Anita Dunn disagreed with the timing of the pardon, which coincided with the rollout of President Biden's nominees, and the rationale, which she felt undermined the judicial system. She believes the pardon should have been done at the end of the term in a more compassionate context.

Will President-elect Trump pardon the January 6th arrestees, and why might he point to Biden's pardon as justification?

Jason Miller expects President-elect Trump to pardon the January 6th arrestees on a case-by-case basis. He may point to Biden's pardon of Hunter as justification, arguing that the justice system has been politicized under Biden and Harris.

Why did Jason Miller argue that the Justice Department under Biden was politicized?

Jason Miller argued that the Justice Department under Biden was politicized because it targeted political opponents, including Hunter Biden, while ignoring others. He cited the Mar-a-Lago raid as evidence of politicization.

Why did Van Jones believe that Joe Biden should not have run for re-election?

Van Jones believed Biden should not have run again because most Democrats and voters were disappointed in his decision. The midterm success gave a false sense of confidence, and the party needed new leadership to address economic and cultural issues.

What role did abortion play in the 2024 election, according to Alexis McGill Johnson?

Abortion was a central issue in the 2024 election, particularly after the Dobbs decision. It kept Kamala Harris competitive by allowing her to frame the conversation around freedom and economic challenges faced by families.

Why did Van Jones argue that the Democratic Party pushed out its rebels?

Van Jones argued that the Democratic Party pushed out its rebels, such as Bernie Sanders and RFK Jr., by not allowing them to challenge Biden in the primaries. This left the party without fresh voices and ideas, contributing to its loss in the 2024 election.

How did Donald Trump's use of TikTok and cultural engagement impact the 2024 election?

Donald Trump's use of TikTok and cultural engagement, such as visiting disaster-stricken areas, helped him connect with voters. His campaign's TikTok content outperformed Biden's, making him more relatable and authentic to voters.

What did Major Garrett say about the role of the media in a representative democracy?

Major Garrett emphasized that a free press is essential for transparency and holding those in power accountable. He noted that digital platforms have become the new media, allowing for greater visibility and accountability in reporting.

Why did Kevin McCarthy argue that the Democratic Party lost credibility with lower-income voters?

Kevin McCarthy argued that the Democratic Party lost credibility with lower-income voters because it failed to address their economic concerns, such as inflation and rising costs. He believes the party's messaging did not resonate with these voters.

Shownotes Transcript

A panel of political figures, advisers and journalists discuss the 2024 election and its aftermath. The discussion is moderated by Maggie Haberman, a senior political correspondent at The Times.

Participants:

  • Kellyanne Conway, campaign manager for the 2016 Trump-Pence campaign, former senior counselor to President Donald J. Trump and author
  • Anita Dunn, former senior adviser to President Biden
  • Major Garrett, chief Washington correspondent at CBS News
  • Margaret Hoover, host of “Firing Line With Margaret Hoover” on PBS
  • Alexis McGill Johnson, president of Planned Parenthood
  • Van Jones, founder of Dream Machine, CNN host and author
  • Jonathan Karl, chief Washington correspondent at ABC News
  • Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark and host of “The Focus Group” podcast
  • Kevin McCarthy, former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives
  • Jason Miller, senior adviser to Mr. Trump

The conversation was recorded at the annual DealBook Summit and recorded live in front of an audience at Jazz at Lincoln Center. Read more about highlights from the day at https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/04/business/dealbook-summit-news

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