What Evangelicals Think of Trump's Abortion Flip-Flop
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The Republicans have been trying to find a new message on one of the most important issues in the election. Many people have asked me what my position is on abortion and abortion rights, especially since I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of something that all legal scholars, both sides, wanted and, in fact, demanded be ended. Roe v. Wade. After months of claiming credit for overturning Roe v. Wade,

Donald Trump posted on Truth Social a few weeks ago. Trump shared on Truth Social this quote. He said, Saying his administration will be great for women and reproductive rights. Shortly after, Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, did an interview with NBC where he said Trump would veto any federal abortion ban.

Vance's comments were the opposite of what many in the anti-abortion movement have been hoping for. And last week, Trump made two statements that seemed to go even further.

There's an abortion-related amendment on the ballot to overturn the six-week ban in Florida. How are you going to vote on that? Well, I think the six-week is too short. It has to be more time. And so that's—and I've told them that I want more weeks. So you'll vote in favor of the amendment? I'm voting that—I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks. He suggested that he might vote for a Florida ballot measure allowing abortion up to around 24 weeks before reversing his position.

Trump also broke with social conservatives again, with comments about IVF. Under the Trump administration, we are going to be paying for that treatment. So we are paying for that treatment. All Americans who want it? All Americans that get it. All Americans that need it. So we're going to be paying for that treatment, or we're going to be mandating that the insurance company pay. So considering the new political landscape, Trump's recent comments on abortion rights and IVF

and the fact that Kamala Harris is sure to make these issues a central message of her campaign. I wanted to check in with the evangelicals to see how they're handling all of this. Donald Trump is basically daring the pro-life movement to turn on him. So, will they? From the New York Times, I'm Ested Herndon. This is The Run-Up. I am Albert Moeller. I'm president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Kentucky.

To understand evangelical thinking in the U.S., Al Mohler is a good person to call. He leads the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Kentucky and is very active in presidential politics. The last time I talked to him, back in May, it was not long after Trump had secured the Republican nomination. And I was interested in how Mohler would explain why evangelicals had continued to back him in the primary when they had other options. And Trump was already starting to soften his stance on abortion.

It's worth spending a minute hearing how Mueller was thinking about it back then. I read that you said in 2023, quote, I'll put my cards on the table. I don't want Trump to be the 2024 Republican nominee. There's simply too much baggage and too much Donald J. Trump. In that spirit, I wanted to ask what you thought of the Republican primary and what did Trump's overwhelming victory say about the Republican electorate?

I think Donald Trump is a singular figure. I believe the political allegiance to him is unlike anything I have seen in my lifetime, including Republican allegiance to Ronald Reagan. With Donald Trump, the support is incredibly personal. Now, let's not say it's separated fully from all issues.

I would argue that there's some consistencies in Donald Trump's political position and profile. I think his concern about the border, his concern about immigration. I think his basic populism, economic populism, is very much a factor. I think it has caught on. Now, I stand by what I said in 2023, but obviously my words had little effect. One of the reasons I like talking to Dr. Moeller is that the way he wrestles with his support for Trump sounds a lot like the evangelicals we meet on the road.

evangelicals who would have preferred a different nominee, but would always back Trump over the Democratic alternative. I guess I wanted to ask, will you be voting for Donald Trump in November? I'm going to say what I've said consistently, and that is I will work against the Democratic nominee's election. And in almost any situation I can envision, I would vote for the Republican nominee for the office of president of the United States because I am electing, if nothing else, an argument against

and i am electing an administration i hope uh that will put into place more that will be gained than loss but uh i refuse to act as if this just comes down to an individual it no longer does it matters who that individual is but i really don't have any choice in who that individual is i do have a choice when i look at the policies structures

executive orders, appointments that will flow from which party occupies the White House. Respectfully, that seemed like a nuanced way of saying yes. Is that right? Yeah.

Well, look, I'm a Christian. There are dispositive events that could take place between now and November. So I am not about to say that I know exactly today what I'm going to do in November. I could say today I know I'm going to do everything I can to try to defeat Joe Biden's reelection campaign. But exactly what form that takes, I will tell you, I don't want to be intellectually dishonest. I expect, yes, I will vote for the Republican candidate and the Republican ticket in November. But I'm

I'm not about to say that nothing could happen between now and then that would be dispositive. Obviously, a lot has happened since the spring, when it seemed we were locked in a Trump-Biden rematch. And to be clear, I didn't expect Trump's latest moves on abortion and IVF to cause Mueller to flip-flop and suddenly support Kamala Harris. But I did want to know if this was impacting evangelical enthusiasm.

which, in 2016, was credited with helping secure Trump the presidency. Hello, Dr. Mueller? Yes. How are you? I'm doing fine, thank you. I hope you're doing fine as well. So, on Tuesday, I called him back.

A lot has changed since we last talked. Obviously, Kamala Harris is the new Democratic nominee. Joe Biden is out of the race. There was assassination attempt against Trump and Trump appointed J.D. Vance to be his running mate. Amongst all those changes, I wanted to just clarify when we talked last, you said that you were very likely going to be voting for the Republican nominee because you felt it was paramount to elect that argument against the Democratic one. Is that still where you are?

Well, as a matter of fact, I can only say the Democratic argument has become even more problematic in the shift from Biden to Kamala Harris, especially in terms of the aggressiveness with which Kamala Harris has indicated she wants to press so many of these issues such as abortion rights. And I believe it is our responsibility as Christians to vote for the candidate that

And that's the party and the administration that will most defend the sanctity and dignity of human life and be most open to the restriction of abortion. And so I've been at this for a long time. That formula remains the same. And I think on the Democratic side, the threat to unborn life is even more clear under Kamala Harris as the nominee.

The big question is in terms of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and where he stands on abortion. Mm-hmm.

Okay, I hear that. And that seems similar to kind of where you were before. Let's get to the main kind of thing we wanted to talk about, specifically about what Trump has said about reproductive freedom and things like IVF. A couple weeks ago, he said that his administration would be great for women and their reproductive rights. He criticized Florida's six-week abortion ban before reversing his position. He's even promised to make IVF free in another term, an announcement that alarmed many social conservatives.

Given what you've said about your own political priorities, I wanted to just ask directly, why are these statements, why are these kind of recent policy shifts from Donald Trump not disqualifying for you?

Well, it's because they're rather disorganized and disconnected. I mean, the reproductive rights comment is like forcing my finger into an electrical outlet. I mean, it's just horrifying to me because I know what that term means. I know that it's a euphemism intentionally designed by the abortion rights movement to avoid using the word abortion. I just don't assume that Donald Trump has any of that knowledge in terms of the background.

And I think given his impulsiveness, it was his way of saying, I'm going to be great for women. And I certainly have criticized it repeatedly and loudly, but I don't think it reflects premeditation on Donald Trump's part.

to necessarily endorse a host of programs. Now, he's been very clear more problematically on abortion on some other issues, such as his opposition to or criticism of the Florida six-week ban. But that's just part of a bigger picture. So I'm very frustrated, but I'm calling for consistency here.

I'm curious, then, what do you when you hear these statements, what goes through your mind? Is it just kind of you think that he's saying this for a political response or response from the audience? You mentioned that people around him don't believe that he holds these positions. Like, how should we take that? Is it your view as kind of an evangelical leader here that what Donald Trump is saying publicly on issues like abortion right now just isn't what he believes? I start out by saying I have no idea what Donald Trump really believes about abortion.

I have a clear idea of certainly what the Trump administration did from 2017 and the next four years.

I can also look at the people around Donald Trump. I can look at his opposition, for instance, to national or federal legislation on abortion. I can compare that to what I see as the absolutely unlimited call for federal legislation for abortion rights on the Democratic side. I see a very clear distinction there. It's not as clear a distinction as I want drawn. It is not an adequate position, I believe, on abortion, but it's still categorically different than the Democratic position.

position. And it's not just that. It's also the understanding that when you elect a president, you're electing an administration. And I have a high degree of confidence that a lot of people in crucial roles in a Trump administration would reflect that pro-life sentiment. I believe the opposite about a Kamala Harris administration. And so I cannot live headline by headline and social media posts by social media posts. I have to look at a longer term strategy. And I think the most responsible pro-life sentiment

figures in the United States think similarly. And I've been at this a long time. This is not the first time with a Republican presidential nominee I've been in the position of having to answer what does he really believe about abortion? You know, years ago, it was George H.W. Bush who was pro Roe v. Wade until basically the night he accepted the invitation to join Ronald Reagan's ticket.

And then he ran for president, of course, himself in 1988. And the question is, is he really pro-life? And evangelicals and pro-life activists had to pretty much come to the conclusion, we can't read his heart, but we can follow his policies and contrast them with what would happen under a Michael Dukakis administration. And so this isn't new. This is an old

It's an awkward position. And I've expressed my frustration as clearly as I can. You know, I make very clear to the Trump campaign, if you want to win, you need overwhelming support from pro-life voters. And it is the former president himself who has muddied those waters and confused the issue.

Yeah. And I want to follow up on that. As you said, you wrote recently that the former president of his campaign need to realize he can't win without huge pro-life support. And when I get the argument that you're making individually, which often it sounds a little bit like the lesser of two evils pitch we hear from politicians. I'm talking politics. I just want to say the lesser of two evils approach is not a new conundrum for conservative Christian voters. That's baked into the political cake.

Theologically, I hold to the Augustinian tradition that understands that in a fallen world, there are no perfect choices. It is a choice between, at the very best, two forms of imperfection, and at the worst, the avoidance of the worst strain of venality. So I'm not intimidated by the lesser of two evils argument. I'm a Christian. I believe in a sinful world, the lesser of two evils is often exactly where we're situated. Okay.

You know, early on in this cycle, I called for candidates other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And I have done that repeatedly. Donald Trump was not my choice as the standard bearer for the Republican Party. He was the Republican Party's choice. OK, so that being how the chessboard is set out.

then I've got to play the best game in faithfulness that is available to me. And I think that's where evangelicals are. I will tell you this. I hear far, far less excitement about a Donald Trump campaign. That should signal a danger to the Trump campaign. I also hear from, I would say, students, you know, 18 to 30 years old, all the way from, you know, baccalaureate college students all the way up to PhD students. I hear very little excitement

about Donald Trump. I do hear the recognition of the issues that are at stake. I think there's a new maturity in younger Christians these days. I don't think at this point they're demanding excitement. I think at this point they're trying to do the very best they can, given the issues that are at stake. I think it'll be an overwhelmingly Republican and conservative vote. I think it will be without the excitement that has come with some cycles.

I guess I'm wondering, Todd, you squared that with what you wrote today, which is that the Trump campaign needs huge pro-life support to win. Is enthusiasm or excitement required? It would seem such. Yes. Yes. Well, we need to shift the discussion a little bit then. If you're talking about choosing between Harris and Trump, I think that's clear.

If you're talking about getting the vote out, that's a different question. And that is where I think the Trump campaign is in grave danger. I think it's not that there are a lot of evangelical and conservative Christians that are in danger of voting for the Harris-Wallace ticket. I think that's a non-existent threat.

There is the danger that they will not turn out to vote. And that's what needs to have the Trump campaign's attention. Yeah. Are you hearing any of that? Like, have you heard someone wrestle with the idea of staying home or sitting out this election because they don't feel like they have a candidate that's clearly reflecting those religious conservative principles? I think it's fair to say there are some Christians so fatigued by this that

They're saying, you know, what we need is to find out what's on the other side of a Donald Trump reality in the Republican Party. And there's some people who are saying, you know, sooner than later may be better. I'm not making that argument. And frankly, I don't hear it very widespread, but it does reflect something that I think ought to have the attention of the Trump campaign.

What do you think the Trump campaign needs to say to shift that to excitement? And then more so, is this a larger party problem that Republicans have now with the issue of abortion? We have no idea what the larger party problem is, because in the history of the Republican Party, Donald Trump is kind of an interregnum. He's a forced unto himself. So I can't tell you who the Republican Party is right now. We're going to find out after the Trump

phenomenon has run its course. And then there will be a different party on the other side. I don't know what that's going to look like. Let's make it specific to Trump. What does he need to say to create the type of excitement you say is necessary for him with evangelicals? He needs to look at the camera squarely and just say, look,

on the issue of abortion, I'm going to defend to the greatest degree politically possible the right to life of the unborn. And he's made very clear he doesn't support federal legislation, and that puts him in contrast to the Harris plan for federal legislation for abortion rights that

I understand that argument, but it needs to make clear that in judicial nominations and appointments, in executive orders and in policies with the Hyde Amendment, for example, he's going to hold to those pro-life commitments that Republican administrations have put in place now for decades. Those are crucial issues for pro-life voters. In this case, we are fundamentally clear that the Trump campaign is not fully allied with that pro-life argument.

I wanted to ask, it seems like some of the energy flowing to Kamala Harris since she's become the nominee is for the exact reasons why you say she's worse than Biden, because she's embraced abortion rights and protecting reproductive freedom, as she calls it, as a center of her campaign. And as we both know, this comes after Democrats have experienced win after win on referendums and state level initiatives that focus on.

on abortion rights. And it seems to add up to a picture where conservative evangelicals are just outside of public opinion specific to this issue. Does that affect your tactics or message in any way? How do you deal with the kind of reoccurring data points that we have now that seems as if the majority of America and even some independents or people who consider themselves conservative are just not where you all seem to be on this issue?

Yeah, well, I can tell you in the first observation you made, it remains to be seen, I think, how that factors into the race in the swing states. I have no doubt that Kamala Harris is turning out more blue intensity in blue states. Remains to be seen exactly how that factors into the election and how that factors into the Electoral College. But then to the second issue, you know, when I look at this situation, I just have to come back and say we are in a radically different

altered landscape in the United States. It's one that I think many of us saw coming. We didn't necessarily see it coming this quickly. And I don't think there's any doubt right now that a consistent pro-life position is a minority position among American voters. It just, to me, underscores the scale of the challenge we face. I'm not about to step back from that position. I believe it's absolutely right and convictionally absolutely mandatory.

I believe that nothing less than the sacredness and dignity of human life is at stake. So I'm not going to give in, but I do recognize with a new seriousness the fact that we're up against an enormous challenge. And I think any honest pro-life leader is going to acknowledge the same. I can tell you I am in pretty constant conversation with many of those leaders nationwide. There's a very sober and I think realistic assessment of the challenge we face. We're not backing off of the challenge. We'll be right back.

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Can I ask one question specific to IVF? That's been something that's come up in a number of these conversations. We've seen even Republicans back away from some stances to embrace that as a piece. And Democrats are trying to frame it a part of the reproductive freedom conversation. Donald Trump made an announcement saying that we will be paying for that treatment or we're going to mandate that insurance companies pay for that treatment. That didn't seem appropriate.

offhand, it seemed like a very kind of intentional message to signal that he was in support of, again, another piece of the kind of reproductive freedom conversation. What have you thought about the IVF piece specifically and how Trump has seemingly embraced that message? Well, I've run point on this argument for a very long time among evangelicals. I've been writing and speaking about IVF as a moral issue going back decades.

I also understand that the vast majority of pro-life voters in the United States have not connected the dots on this issue. And as much as I would want to see a national consensus understanding the sacredness and dignity of every human life, including every human embryo, we're not there yet. I understand that Donald Trump is not there. I understand that it may well be that a majority of Republicans are not there.

And instead, they see IVF in terms of the gain of couples being able to have children. Of course, it's a far more complex moral issue than that. I've got to look at the alienation from the context of marriage. I've got to look at the greater danger and the destruction of human embryos. And so I can't give this up. On the other hand, I don't know of anyone who shares my conviction who believes that we're close to some kind of national consensus, much less any kind of national policy on this issue.

We've got an awful lot of ground to gain on the pro-life argument before we ever get to IVF as a public issue. And I think the former president's comments, frankly, reflect that.

I mean, I guess I'm asking more basically, though. What was your reaction to hearing that policy come out of Trump's mouth? I mean, this is a Republican endorsing a government incentive around this thing. That seems further than there's not a consensus on this issue. That seems like the Republican is recognizing that the consensus is in the opposite direction. I don't argue against that. I'm very disappointed. On the other hand, I'm not surprised.

You know, when you look at what Donald Trump intuits as a pro-family argument, I think he sees IVF as part of a pro-family argument. I don't think he understands all that is involved there, nor do many Republican leaders and officeholders. And frankly, some do understand and I think have just caved to a political reality. And that just underscores to me the challenge that my colleagues and I face in addressing this issue. But, you know, I...

I'm not running for office. I'm seeking to contend for the dignity and sanctity of human life as best I can. I'm not campaigning. I'm trying to win hearts and minds on this issue.

Well, yeah, I ask because they do seem connected. I mean, the hearts and minds question informs a lot of the politics. And to your point, there does seem to be a big gap to where folks like you are and convincing majority of the public to agree on the basic premise of where you are on issues like abortion rights or IVF. I just want to ask about that. Can I say something in response to that? Yeah, no problem. Okay.

I have been at this a very long time, and I can remember when it seemed that gaining any kind of pro-life consensus in this country by educating Americans, and I'll even say just American evangelical Christians on the issue of abortion, seemed an impossible task. But now you speak of American evangelicals, and you really do assume a basic pro-life conviction. Well, that took a half century of effort.

I don't know how long it's going to take on IVF, but I just want you to know that I'm not intimidated by being told we're way behind in this game. We started out way behind in this game. And so I'm going to keep gaining every yard I can on this issue. And I think that's where the most responsible pro-life leaders are these days.

I hear that. I guess I was asking, there was such a clear, specifically legal strategy around any things like Roe v. Wade that I think folks understood. What is the strategy now to winning over the types of hearts and minds? Because it seems as every time things get put to the public, to your point, they're not necessarily in the same space as you all. How do you all reverse that?

Because I imagine that's what we're talking about here, right? Like, that is the big fight. That's an ongoing question. And I think, you know, given how many states are going to be confronting ballot initiatives on abortion, and frankly, those initiatives vary state to state. And I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to lose all of those state initiatives. I think we're going to learn, just as we did in the early pro-life movement, in terms of, look how many cases went before the Supreme Court, before the Dobbs, you know, decision in 2022. An awful lot of

argument had to be developed. A lot of legal strategy had to be developed. When Dobbs was handed down by the court and Roe was reversed, pro-life leadership found out pretty quickly that the pro-life movement was ill-equipped to respond now that the issue was returned to the states. So that's a sober assessment, but that's an honest assessment. We weren't ready.

We're going to have to get more and more ready, but I'm not giving it up. And I'll point out something else. In many of those same states, voters overwhelmingly supported clear pro-life candidates while voting against pro-life initiatives. So I don't think the American public is a lost cause on this. I mean, even if I did believe that, I'd still have to fight the fight. But I believe there are still hearts and minds to be persuaded and won. And I'm going to stay in this battle regardless of how things turn out in November. Yeah.

Again, I thank you for your time. My last question is really another strategic one. You know, you're clearly making the calculation to stick with Trump this November, even though he has, you know, upset some social conservatives on these issues. And you're making a specific argument around the other side. You said you have a comfort with the idea of a lesser of two evils argument because as a conservative Christian, you've never felt like you've seen a kind of perfect candidate. I wanted to ask then, like,

You know, there's a cynical way to view this, which means that, you know, Donald Trump is just then prioritizing moderates that may not vote for him over kind of social conservatives who are going to come around to him in the end. And hearing you talk through this seems to me to actually kind of bolster that point because it doesn't seem like there's a lot that he could do to lose your vote. I guess my question is, like, aren't you foregoing some political power?

by just inherently backing Trump no matter that he's pointed to you, your wing, and your specific issue over the last year and a half and kind of rejected it? From your perspective, why is there no consequences to that?

Well, I do believe there'll be consequences to that. Donald Trump is either going to win or lose this election. And I think it'll, in large part, be on this question in terms of the intensity with which conservative voters, pro-life voters, either vote for him or don't. And that's my warning. I'm a highly motivated voter, so I'm going to turn out to vote. And the way you put it, support for Trump, that's not exactly how I would characterize my position. I say here we

We face two choices, one of them radically pro-abortion. And we haven't talked about that, but I mean truly radically pro-abortion. The other one, confused and sending mixed signals. I don't want a situation like this. I called for something other than a situation like this. I've done everything to call for the former president to clarify these issues.

and to stand consistently in a pro-life position. But I don't get to invent a new reality when I go in the voting booth in November. Discomfort does not mean I'm going to stay home and see what happens. Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. And I appreciate you being a kind of gateway for us to better understand these issues. Dr. Moeller, thank you so much. It's been a pleasure to be with you. Thank you. So it's clear. Moeller believes Trump is an aberration.

And no matter what he said recently on abortion or IVF, social conservatives are playing the long game in the Republican Party and in the country at large. But it also strikes me that they could be misreading this moment and the significance of Trump's political strategy. In the first presidential election since Roe v. Wade was overturned, both major party nominees have virtually abandoned the anti-abortion movement

And to this point, haven't paid much of a price for. So is Trump an aberration? Or is the influence of the evangelical right waning? And Trump just knows it. A place to call home. The freedom to live in safety. The opportunity to work for a better life. These are American dreams everyone deserves.

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Brothers and sisters, please join me to welcome our true friends, the President and Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

at a Labor Day event in Pittsburgh. Folks, we made a lot of progress, and Kamala and I are going to build on that progress, and she's going to build on it. I'll be on the sidelines, but I'll do everything I can to help. President Biden and Vice President Harris made their first campaign appearance together since she accepted the nomination, continuing the themes of unity around Harris' elevation. And preparations are underway for both candidates ahead of next Tuesday's presidential debate in Philadelphia.

Harris will reportedly be starting debate prep in Pennsylvania today. Meanwhile, former President Trump is being prepped by former Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who debated Harris during the 2020 Democratic primary. There are five days until the second presidential debate, the first between these two candidates. There are 61 days until the general election. We'll be back Tuesday to preview the big event.

The run-up is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Landman, and Alicia Baitu. It was mixed by Brad Fisher and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

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