The Anti-Trump Republicans (and the Specter of 2016)
44:53 Share

BP added more than $130 billion to the U.S. economy over the past two years by making investments from coast to coast. Investments like acquiring America's largest biogas producer, Arkea Energy, and starting up new infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. It's and, not or. See what doing both means for energy nationwide at bp.com slash investing in America.

It was around this time eight years ago that the Republican primary field was starting to take shape. By this point in 2015, six people were already in. Republican Senator Ted Cruz became the first politician from either party to announce plans to run for president in 2016. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is officially in the Republican race. I'm Ben Carson, and I'm a candidate for president of the United States. I'm Carly Fiorina, and I'm running for president. I am a candidate for president.

for President of the United States. I am putting myself forward as a candidate for President of the United States. Over the coming weeks and months... I'm Jeb Bush. Good evening, I'm Scott Walker. I'm Donald Trump. Hi, my name is Chris Christie. I'm John Kasich. Governor Bobby Jindal. Senator Rick Santorum. Governor Jim Gilmore. Republican candidate Rick Perry. Governor George Pataki. I'm Lindsey Graham, and I'm running for President of the United States. Eleven more candidates would join the race.

The famous image summing it all up. The 11 leading Republican candidates for president are at their podiums. They are ready to face off. And if you've been watching this race, you know anything could happen over the next few hours. Was the crowded debate stage. Pretty soon you're going to be off the end. This doesn't do anything.

And the candidates fighting to be heard. It was this, Paola. For the candidates who have not yet won a state, I ask you to prayerfully consider our coming together. And the refusal by candidates to drop out. That is the only way to beat Donald Trump.

that's often seen as a leading cause of Donald Trump's nomination. It's official now, it's official now. Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee. And it's a specter that hangs over this moment. Because once again, a majority of Republicans are not solidly behind Trump. And a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Meaning that, once again, the anti-Trump vote could fracture, leaving Trump with the nomination.

So in this crucial window, I wanted to talk to two potential candidates who are faced with the choice. Should I run or should I get out of the way? And who reached two different conclusions. From the New York Times, I'm Astead Herndon. This is The Run-Up. Hey, good afternoon. Hello, how are you, Governor? Thank you for taking some time out to talk with us. Oh, it's my pleasure. Appreciate the opportunity. Larry Hogan is the former governor of Maryland and one of the last moderate standing in national Republican politics.

In that role, he's been an open critic of Donald Trump. He makes no secret of the fact that he never voted for Trump. Not in 2016, when he wrote in his dad. And not in 2020, when he wrote in Ronald Reagan. Still, Hogan was massively popular in Maryland with Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. That popularity increasingly led to speculation that he would try and run for president in 2024.

and that he was the exact type of Republican the party was looking for. But after months of whispers, Hogan announced in early March that he would not be running. And he called back to that crowded 2016 field. You know, in the early primaries, Trump was winning with 25% or 30% of the vote. He wasn't winning a majority anywhere.

But we had 17 candidates and he was the one that kind of stood out. You know, it's it really wasn't all Republicans that were feeling that way. But the ones that showed up, more of them showed up for Donald Trump than anybody else. And it was, you know, I think it surprised almost everyone. Looking back to that time, do you feel like the fractured anti-Trump coalition, more than anything, led the Republican Party to where it is now? It wasn't the power up. That was the problem.

I think the pileup was a problem. I mean, there wasn't an organized anti-Trump faction. It was simply the real Republican Party. And obviously, had they consolidated around one really strong candidate, and I'm not sure who that candidate could have been, we could have had a different result. But none of that happened. What's what I didn't want to see happen this time? We didn't want a repeat of that.

There were some really good candidates in that race, but there were 17 of them. And so everybody was down in single digits for the most part. A couple of them hung in there for a while. John Kasich and Ted Cruz lasted for a while, but a lot of the rest fell by the wayside and they didn't consolidate early enough. As you mentioned, it does seem like this is informing how you were thinking about 2024. Why, despite that, did you explore running yourself?

Well, I just believe very strongly that the Republican Party is heading in the wrong direction, that we're off track and that we've had really terrible six years. It's the worst time for the Republican Party in history. We lost the White House. We lost the Senate. We lost the House. We lost governor's seats and state legislative bodies. And then we barely won the House back in a year that should have been a tidal wave because we continue to relitigate the 2020 election, talk about conspiracy theories, and we nominated some

candidates in that primary who just had no electability in the general election. The Republicans that won were Republicans like me that were common sense conservatives, traditional Republicans that were able to win swing voters, that focused on the economy. They talked about keeping people safe in their communities. They talked about education. But all the ones that Trump endorsed, most of them lost.

And shouldn't have. We should have elected stronger candidates. But you would think that after the midterm elections, when there was such a clear electoral cost to Trumpism, that if there was ever a window for it to be open to make that argument, it was in that window. No question. So why haven't we gotten that in this window? Well, you know what? I ask myself the exact same question a lot. You know, I thought I was a pretty good student of history and I thought I knew politics pretty

pretty well. But, you know, I predicted that eventually his support would diminish, and it did for a while. After January 6th, it dropped considerably and it continued to drop. I thought it was going to continue to go down, and I didn't expect the rebound that he's got now. So it sounds like your thinking behind running was that the midterm showed that a lot of voters wanted someone like you. But as you said before, the Republican primary is a lot different than that general election. Is the reason you're not running because you didn't see the path through the primary?

Well, that certainly was a big part of the decision. Look, I thought I was, I had a proven track record. I got the same support among Republicans that Trump did, but I added to that winning coalition by overwhelmingly winning independents, by having huge numbers with black voters and Hispanics and winning Asians and winning suburban women. So I thought I was likely, based on the track record, the best possible candidate for a general election. And I thought I could do pretty well.

But the primary is a totally different calculation. And as you're looking at the polls and seeing Trump 50 some percent, it's a different subset of people that actually turn out for those primaries. And they're focused on different issues than people care about in the general. They're they're looking for something different. And so my point is we need to nominate electable people. But a lot of people don't. You know, they're more concerned about.

Who's going to go to the farthest to the right or who's going to push all the, you know, whatever the hot button issues are going to fire up those folks that are out there. It seems like you are identifying the primaries as a huge problem for the Republican Party. It pushes it away to being reflective of what most Americans want. Is there a way to come out of the Republican presidential primary as a quote unquote moderate?

Well, you know, it's starting to change. And by the way, it's not just a Republican problem. I mean, it's the Democrats have a mirror image of that and that, you know, sometimes the most progressive or the most far left folks win their primary. Certainly. But I mean, I have a hard time getting elected in a general. I just want to push back because we didn't have Joe Biden just come out of a primary that had a lot of progressive activism and not go that direction. I'm saying, can that exist in the Republican Party?

I think it can. Um, but we, I was trying to avoid the multi-car pileup. And again, he had to have a one strong person like that. Okay. But prior to Trump, all of the more moderate candidates won every nomination. You know, John McCain was in that lane. Mitt Romney was in that lane. Bush was in that lane, but Trump has kind of, uh, broke the mold and, uh,

you know, things are a little out of whack right now. But I think it is possible. I can't tell you who that might be at this point, but I didn't want to be one of the ones fighting for the scraps and having a lot of people with the same, trying to say the same thing I've been saying for years. One of the things I've heard from Trump supporters, though, is that some of them take real pride in the ways they've shifted the party from the Romneys, from the Bushes,

to this version of the Republican Party, which they argue is more central on working class people and has rejected those type of business interests. What do you say to the legitimate kind of ideological concerns people and a lot of Trump supporters have feeling good about the ways they've shifted the party?

Well, first of all, I think there's multiple different types of folks that voted for Donald Trump. I like some of Trump's policies. And most Republicans supported, you know, tax cuts, and they like getting tough on China and things like that. But they don't like, you know, what some of the other stuff that he's been all about. So it's a subset. But however, yeah, I think they're there. It's a fight for the heart and soul of the party. And right now,

I don't think the fight's over, but right now I think those guys have sort of hijacked the Republican Party. It was kind of a hostile takeover, and they're still the ones that are calling the shots, but they're also losing all the elections.

I see the effort that you're identifying to avoid the multi-car pileup of 2016, but it does feel like some of that has already been avoided in this race. You have not seen people like the Glenn Youngkins of the world or Mike Pompeos of the world get in the race. You yourself have decided not to get in the race. Is there a risk of an opposite problem now where Donald Trump is taking up so much space in the Republican primary that the lack of other voices makes him more inevitable?

Well, I think we've got at least six or eight or nine people that are going to run. We have, they haven't all announced yet, but I think probably the end of next month, I think they'll know everybody that's in the race. And I don't think you can wait too much longer than that. If you hope to have any success, they got first debate coming up in August and, you know, you really have to, it takes a while to build that team and to raise the hard dollars necessary and to get the visibility. So I think the race is going to have not, it's not going to be as crowded as it

It was in 2016, but it's not like there's no candidates right now. We're going to have a pretty good selection of folks that are going to be out there making the argument. Unfortunately, right now, they're not getting any traction or any attention. And yet you have like all of them in single digits. You have DeSantis dropping like a rock and you got Trump going up. That's what I'm saying. I mean, it seems like a different type of problem than 16, not necessarily the multi-car pileup, but the fact that Republicans are just rallying around the former president. How do you deal with that problem?

Well, I mean, only 30% of them were rallying around the president. And then the indictment came in New York and he got back up to 50%. You're saying thank Alvin Bragg for that.

Well, I mean, it definitely had the opposite impact than what I think people thought. I guess what I am asking is partially, if you could build out a platform of a Republican candidate that you think could build a coalition across a moderate wing or other voters who don't want Trump, what does that candidate look like? Well, it looks like me. I think it's got to be a thoughtful candidate. I think it's a more traditional candidate.

Republican, you know, not only bigger tent and working class folks and middle class folks and not talking about crazy things. That's how you can appeal to folks. You got to talk about the things they care about. But aren't you not running in part because you didn't see a path for someone like you in the primary? So how do you reconcile the fact that you see the best general election path through the type of coalitions you have helped create? And also the fact that that doesn't seem to have a lane in this version of the party?

Well, there's definitely a lane, but there's not room for six people in the same lane. And it's not currently what you would think would be the lane that's, it's not the fast lane. I have many friends that are in the race or thinking about getting in the race all have really good strengths. And I'm hoping that I can find, you know, somebody that emerges that I can get behind and help. But you're right today, it doesn't appear as if there's a path. And that's my whole point is that

The most likely path to the nomination is different than what you need to win a general election and build a big coalition. You know, we're totally different types of folks. Yeah. And that's that's a big part of the problem for a lot of Republicans who want to move on from Trump. It's like, well, where are we going to go? Yeah. Is that a candidate problem? Is that a lane problem? Why isn't it clear for you where that energy should go?

Well, I think there are many people that I think would be good candidates and would be good presidents. However, they're not getting any traction. You know, I've been a little disappointed with a couple of people that just didn't when they announced that they didn't get a lot of attention or attraction. Somebody's got to, you know, capture at least a little bit of attention. Like, hey, wow, I like, you know, even though Trump's he's still way ahead. I really like what this guy's doing and saying and everything.

I don't know if there's a moment when you go, this is the guy, but somebody's got to start to excite the party in a different direction and make the arguments that people actually listen to. Right now, guys like you and me and everybody in social media and on cable, they're all talking about Trump. Yeah, yeah. None of the other guys are getting any attention. Well, let me talk about somebody else. Let's talk about Ron DeSantis then, huh? Like, how do...

Big pivot. How do you then think about someone like that who has made an ability to get name recognition, to break out of the pack at least a little bit, but has not done so, I would say, as rejecting Trumpism? He's actually done so by leaning into it. Yeah. Look, I think to date, he's gotten more attention and done more than any of the other candidates. And it's a totally different strategy. I mean, some candidates are trying to

balance. We don't want to alienate Trump folks, but we want to move on. Some people are just non-Trump guys. DeSantis is trying to out-Trump Trump. He's trying to move to the right of Trump, and his strategy is to go after the hardcore Trump base. When he first got elected governor of Florida, he was fairly moderate, and he was doing some things on the environment, and he was not focused on social issues, and he wasn't the current guy we see right now. But I think he's in

intentionally decided that he wants to be the younger, smarter version of Trump, and he's going after that base. I think it's a hard sell to take Trump voters away from Trump, and we just saw them. They took a look at DeSantis, and then many of them ran back to Trump. Yeah, so I think he's certainly raised a lot of money. He's got a lot of people paying attention. He's

I mean, pretty much wall-to-wall coverage on Fox News. So he's somebody to reckon with. But I would just argue that a year out when everybody says this is going to be the next guy, it's never that guy. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

It does seem as if some of DeSantis' recent struggles does complicate the premise of the race of people like you. I mean, there was coordination around DeSantis. There was a positioning of him with donors and activists that could seem like he was the type of person who could turn the page from Donald Trump. He's made the arguments about Trump individually being someone who is too dramatic or things like that. Is DeSantis' tough couple months...

complicating what the picture was for someone like you, whose main goal is that the party move on from Trump. Well, it doesn't complicate it so much for me because he's not really going after the same audience that I was talking to. We have a totally different message. But I think, yes, it's definitely...

complicated things for other folks that wanted to move on from Trump. You've seen the coverage. I mean, a lot of the donor class and a lot of the key political leaders around the country were saying, hey, this is the guy. Even if we don't think he's the greatest guy, he's the guy because he's going to beat Trump. And now they're saying maybe he's not the guy because he's stumbling.

I guess the question I have for the primaries is it does seem at the core of a lot of the folks I'm talking to, particularly moderate folks who don't want Donald Trump to be the next nominee. There's a question of what are they willing to accept in service of that, even if it's people who don't agree with them on every issue. Would they vote for that person in service of beating Donald Trump? Would you vote for Ron DeSantis in the service of beating Donald Trump?

I'd like to see more from Ron DeSantis over the next year and a half or so of the primaries. There are certain things that I'm not comfortable with him on, and he's not probably at the top of my list. But certainly, if it was a choice between stop and Trump, it's something you've got to consider. And I want to see how he does. I don't think he's a great general election candidate, but he very well may have a path in the primary. Yeah.

You said that you're uncomfortable with some of what DeSantis is running on right now. Is there any way you can get specific about that? What has he shifted on that has made you think maybe this isn't a general election? Well, I mean, his his commentary on Ukraine was like idiotic. And I was on national TV at the time when he came out with that. And everybody hammered him on it. He completely backed up. He was sounded very supportive of Russia and anti Ukraine didn't want walked into a Tucker Carlson trap.

Yeah, exactly. So that was really a bad move. I think he dropped quite a bit after that. I think the kind of extended, continued fight with Disney, you know, basically, you know, threatening to build prisons next door to them or, you know, it's any governor in America would love to have Disney in their state with all those jobs, you know, and he's

I just think those are big mistakes. And maybe at first, you know, he got some positive traction with the base on the issue they were arguing about. But usually the Republican Party, traditional Republicans don't usually try to put businesses out of business. And they usually defend, you know, the right to free speech. And even if you disagree, they got a right to say whatever they want to say.

Yeah. How do you feel about the prevalence of cultural issues in the party in this moment? Because some of this feels like not only a party that has embraced Donald Trump, but also has embraced his priority of issues, which has put culture grievance way higher than things like economic messages.

Yeah, I think it's a mistake to ignore the things that are at the top of everybody's list and just focus on things for the primary. That's what we've been talking about the whole conversation. It's about a different subset of people that they are firing up the base. And DeSantis has done a good job of that. And Trump does a good job of that by focusing on kind of grievance politics and on social issues.

But those are things that are going to hurt them in a general election because it doesn't reach a majority of folks. And I think it's all about the economy and crime and education. It's not about those issues. And if you look at any poll anywhere, people are like, that's what they want to hear about.

What is then, I mean, it does seem as if the leading candidates that put Trump and DeSantis in that category are not embracing your vision of where Republicans should be, are not embracing your prioritization of issues. They are not thinking about the party in that same way. Why is that not a reason for you to vote for Joe Biden, who's making that argument that that was a reason for Republicans to leave him? What keeps you in this version of the Republican Party?

Well, first of all, I don't think Joe Biden's doing a good job as president. So the alternative was like, yeah, I'm not happy with the direction of my party. So I'm going to vote for a guy that I don't think is doing a very good job. That doesn't make any sense. I don't want to give up on my party. And I've been a lifelong Republican. I came up, I was involved in, you know, Ronald Reagan's campaigns and both Bushes. And I know it's an uphill battle. I know that sometimes I feel like a lonely voice in the wilderness about, hey, you know, what about peace through strength? And what about...

economic empowerment. It does sound like throwbacks, you know? The things we used to talk about. But I do think looking back, and I'm not trying to live with the dinosaurs in the past, but I think that is a path forward still, the things that we used to be about. And, you know, people, some friends have become independents. They've walked away. They've given up. Other people are like, you know, throwing their hands up. They don't know what to do.

I want to try to get my party back on track rather than saying, hey, you know, 50 years I've been doing this. I'm just going to jump ship. If we don't fight back, then we leave the party to the folks that, you know, I think that's a small percentage of people and they don't deserve to hijack the party. When I ask you who you think has a winning path, if no one feels the Andrew Trump lane, is your decision on this race firm or is there a way that you would consider getting in here? Or I also want to ask about the new open Senate seat in Maryland.

Yeah, I mean, I just decided it was a very tough decision. My heart was in it because of the, you know, I care about the things that you and I've been talking about. And I really care about the party and getting the country on track. But I also, my head told me that there wasn't a path and that multiple people trying to be in that lane was going to make decisions.

it more likely that Trump rather than less likely. So, you know, I'm not going to change my mind in the next, you know, 30 days, which is when I think you'd have to be in the race. And so I'm going to try to hope, hopefully find somebody to get behind, but on the Senate seat, you know, I've just never really had a desire to be a Senator. And in a, in a year that maybe Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket and the whole race is about,

not whether they like me or whether they thought I was a good governor, but it'll be about making Mitch McConnell the Senate majority leader. And I think it'd be a rough race. And at the end of the day, I just didn't want to be a senator. I'm an executive. I loved being governor. I loved making decisions that impacted people's lives and I could make a difference. And I think in Washington, no offense to those guys, but

You just argue with the other 99 folks all day. Very little gets done. The worst case scenario is I'm going to get elected to the Senate and then I got to drive to D.C. every day and argue with people and feel like I didn't accomplish anything. But, you know, it does seem as if for your lane of Republicans, I'm thinking about you, I'm thinking about Charlie Baker, I'm thinking about people who have really grown to statewide popularity, even in some of those blue states who have shown real electability. It does feel like Donald Trump has placed the cap

on where you all can go in the Republican Party right now. Is that true? I mean, I think Charlie Baker just made the decision to get out of politics and he's got a great job. He does. NCAA, you know, I got to hook up for final four tickets now, you know. But, you know, I decided not to run for president. But I mean, he didn't do anything to my electability. Like I said, I left with 77% approval. I could probably, you know, run for anything, but I just don't want to.

I got a couple more. One of the things you mentioned is that you're looking for a friend, someone who can step up in this race and be someone you can rally behind. Are you thinking of anyone specific? Is there someone who's at the top of your list? Many of the former, I think governors are a great training ground to become president because you're actually an executive. You have a cabinet. You're governing every day. You're making decisions. And I think that's a

That's a really good. So I served with a lot of the folks. I served as governor with Mike Pence and with Nikki Haley and with Chris Christie. And there's, you know, Chris Sununu is talking about Asa Hutchinson from Arkansas. I like all of them. I know all of them very well. You know, Tim Scott, even though he wasn't a governor, he's a guy I like a lot.

And it's sort of like I got a lot of friends that I could get behind. But right now, they're like, hey, guys, when none of you guys are, you know, who's going to who's going to ask is like, is that just you waiting to see who breaks out the pack? And if whoever does that, you'll take. Well, I mean, I think any of them are qualified and capable and the kind of people I could vote for and get behind. But at this point, most of the people I just mentioned, half of them are not in the race yet. Mm hmm.

Asa is a friend. He's out there saying most of my message that he agrees with, and he's talking about similar things and moving on. So he's certainly capable. He's got a great resume. He was the cabinet secretary, prosecutor, U.S. attorney. He's a good guy, but I know all of them well, and there are people that I, whether we agree on every single issue or not, there's still a better direction for me than going with Donald Trump. I mean-

It does seem as if there is a window of time in which if this argument from particularly from moderate or anti-Trump wing is going to be made, that we're kind of in that window. Do you think they're doing enough in that window?

But that's why I made my decision, I guess it's been six weeks ago or something. I don't think people have much more time. I mean, some of my friends, it's like, hey, if you're going to get in, you better get in. Stop fooling around. I've heard people say, well, I'm going to wait until end of June. I'm going to wait until July or something. They got to get in, start making the argument.

We don't have time to waste. I'm going to put this real directly as my last question, because I think someone can hear you and actually leave more convinced that Donald Trump is inevitable. Because if someone who comes from this lane decides not to get in the race, who has friends who are in the race, still looks at it and does not see a viable path, I guess I'm wondering, do you think Governor Hutchinson or any of these people who you mentioned could legitimately put together a winning anti-Trump coalition?

I sure hope that one of them can, but you're right. I mean, obviously, I made a decision based on the facts on the ground, and it's different than... I was starting to say everything I said was going to happen started to happen, and then it changed. So I'm

Trump had diminished. More people were starting to speak out. People were listening to it's time to move on. And now we're in this kind of strange period right now where they started rolling back down the hill instead of instead of like, you know, pushing the snowball up the mountain. It starts to roll down. It started. It went backwards rather than forward. But so, yes, today I'm very concerned about where we are. But a year from now, it could be completely different. Mm hmm.

That's what's holding out your hope. Yeah, I'm still not ready to give up hope. But yeah, I can't give you the facts to tell you why it's happening, but I'm going to keep fighting. It's a real hope effort, real faith effort. Keep hope alive. Governor Hogan, thank you so much. I appreciate your time. Hey, thank you. I really enjoyed it. After the break.

Today, I am announcing that I am a candidate for president of the United States. We talked to Governor Hutchinson. With Instacart, starting a new school year can be easy because memorizing your daughter's volleyball schedule is hard and explaining why she needs to take geometry is hard and remembering whether emojis are cool or uncool is hard.

But ordering groceries and last-minute school supplies and getting delivery through Instacart in as fast as 30 minutes? That's easy. Download the Instacart app today and enjoy $0 delivery fees on your first three orders. Offer expires 14 days after first order. Terms and exclusions apply.

- Hello, this is Yuande Kamalefa from "New York Times Cooking," and I'm sitting on a blanket with Melissa Clark. - And we're having a picnic using recipes that feature some of our favorite summer produce. Yuande, what'd you bring? - So this is a cucumber agua fresca. It's made with fresh cucumbers, ginger, and lime.

How did you get it so green? I kept the cucumber skins on and pureed the entire thing. It's really easy to put together and it's something that you can do in advance. Oh, it is so refreshing. What'd you bring, Melissa?

Well, strawberries are extra delicious this time of year, so I brought my little strawberry almond cakes. Oh, yum. I roast the strawberries before I mix them into the batter. It helps condense the berries' juices and stops them from leaking all over and getting the crumb too soft. Mmm. You get little pockets of concentrated strawberry flavor. That tastes amazing. Oh, thanks. New York Times Cooking has so many easy recipes to fit your summer plans. Find them all at NYTCooking.com. I have sticky strawberry juice all over my fingers.

Hey, how are you? Oh, can I see him? Does he see me yet? No, I can only see my terrible face. Can you hear me? I can see you now. Yes. Oh, right. And you do look sharp today. You do look sharp. Oh, no, I had a pundit, a panel thingy later. In addition to his Southern charm, Asa Hutchinson is known in Republican circles for being a true conservative. Yeah.

As governor of Arkansas, he supported a near-total abortion ban. And unlike Hogan, he supported Trump in 2016.

And he's got no regrets there. No, I don't regret supporting him because he was running against Hillary Clinton, who was the first lady of Arkansas for a few years. But she was wanting to go a leftist direction in our country. And so, no, that was a binary easy choice for me. And I think it paid off. He supported Trump again when he ran in 2020. I had seen some of the flaws in leadership of the president, but

balance it out with where Biden was wanting to take the country. It was an easy choice there. Absolutely, I supported Trump for re-election. But after Trump lost, Hutchinson denounced him.

And about one month after Hogan announced that he wouldn't run for president in 2024, Hutchinson announced that he would. What was it about the 2020 post-election period that was the red line for you? Well, it was January 6th. It was President Trump assembling Americans there to protest the election results.

That troubled me. And I said, I supported him twice. Let's not do this again. Let's make sure, whether it's me or somebody else, that we have an alternative and a new direction for our party. This message makes Hutchinson the only Republican running an explicitly anti-Trump campaign. In the weeks since his announcement, he's barely been able to break 1% in the polls. But Hutchinson sees a lane for himself, different than Hogan.

As a serious conservative, ready to move on. But I will say that the Republican base, particularly those that contribute significantly to campaigns, they want alternatives to Donald Trump. What makes you so confident about that?

Well, because I talk to them every day and they would like to see somebody that can win against Donald Trump. Now, some of them are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see who arises and surfaces as the strongest opposition, but

you've got a majority of Republicans that say, let's move on and look for alternatives. Interesting. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who was also thinking about running and decided not to, he said in an op-ed for The Times that, quote, the stakes are too high for me to risk being part of another multi-car pileup that can potentially help Donald Trump recapture the nomination. Is there any fears that you have about recreating the things that made Trump possible in 2016?

Well, actually, I've talked with Governor Hogan a number of times. He's a good friend. His voice is very important and will continue to be that. You know, on this point, I've said that we actually need to have multiple candidates in the race. Why is that? Because there's strength. Why is that? It's because, can you imagine a race right now only between Donald Trump and

Ron DeSantis, uh, you know, uh, it's not going the right direction now. So you need to have a number of horses in the race, uh, to see which one's going to get to the pole position and be able to hold it. And, uh, we're, we're not even to the first corner yet, uh, on that race, the first turn. And so you need multiple voices in there because there's strength in that message, but, uh,

I think that's how you explain, you know, people do want the alternative, but they want a little time to figure out who that top alternative is going to be to Donald Trump. Whenever you look at the challenge that we face in our economy, and that should be the number one focus for 2024. I've been a governor that solved problems, that's balanced budget for eight years, that's controlled spending, that's reduced the size of our state employment.

And so that record fits with the challenges that we face. You mentioned the economy as the issue you think should be front and center for 24, but that's certainly not what the Republican Party has spent the most time talking about. How do you balance that with the Republican Party that's increasingly become consumed by cultural grievance?

Well, it's a natural concern about the culture. Everyone is impacted by the environment in which we live, and they want to shape it in a way that reflects their values. So that's an important fight.

But whenever you look at the role of government, my focus, if you look at my announcement speech, is the economy. And sure, I am also very cognizant. That's why I've signed a bill that prohibits

biological males from competing in women's sports. These issues are important as well, but whenever you're looking at providing an income for a family that needs to put food on the table, that needs to buy gas for the car, that wants a good quality of life,

This is always what is important in terms of elections. But at the same time, I've seen things where you have incurred the ire of some Republicans for not going far enough on those cultural issues. Trump called you a rhino for vetoing a bill that came through the legislature about banning gender-affirming care for people under 18. What went into those decisions to distance yourself from some of the ways the Republican Party was shifting on those issues? Well, I'm not trying to...

shift, I'm just trying to state my position and try to think it through under my constitutional responsibilities. But in that case, what is the role of the state? When should we use the power of the state to interfere with parental decisions? And that's generally a conservative position to protect parental decision-making when it comes to healthcare, whether it's a vaccine or whether it's other healthcare and sensitive issues.

Obviously, I don't believe that a minor and a parent should consent to reassignment sex surgery. I would sign a bill that prohibited that. That goes too far. But when you're looking at normal routine medical treatment, then the

the state should step back and allow parents to make decisions unless there's an extraordinary compelling interest. We're still studying much of that, but that's the basis in which I made the decision. It was an extreme bill, and I struck it down, and my veto was over it. And as you mentioned, that does sound like the more consistent, traditional, conservative approach as you articulated it, but at the same time,

We were just at CPAC where that issue came up over and over and over again. How do you contend with a Republican Party that has gone further than even you may have been comfortable with on those issues? You know, it's,

This is important to our communities, to our families. And it's not just in the transgender issue, but I met with college students at a major university, and they were concerned about their conservative views being suppressed on campus. There's a concern about the cancel culture. It's a concern about our businesses being pushed left in terms of a social agenda.

I agree with those concerns, and that's what campaigns are about. That's what debates are about. You articulate what you believe in and defend it. And that's what we're doing. That sounds like some of the issues that some other Republican candidates or prospective candidates in 24 have taken up. Ron DeSantis has really centered his political rise on taking on kind of woke corporate culture. Is that version of anti-Trump message relevant?

Good enough for someone like you, because he does represent a turn on the page from Donald Trump, but is certainly doing so on terms that are not centered around, say, the economy.

Well, there's differences. I mean, he's different from Donald Trump, but he's also similar in many ways. And I have disagreements with him. There's a lot of things that we agree upon. But, you know, whenever you look at what I just said about the power of government, Governor DeSantis has decided to use the power of government to punish a business in which he disagreed with what that business said.

The position that they took, that's called free speech. That's called a conservative approach to government. I mean, I hear you. But at the same time, the person who seems to have broken through, a.k.a. DeSantis, has led through grievance and kind of mimicking that Donald Trump prioritization of issues. How do you leapfrog that wing in that kind of grievance driven group of the party if their hold seems to be this large?

Well, you know, under your arguments, we all just all go home and say the country is lost and the party is lost. Well, I'm not going to do that. It's about engaging the debate, going to those tough audiences. I was I've been there. I've been there with election deniers. I make the message. They're not running me out of the room. They're saying, OK, we might not agree on that, but we agree on a whole bunch of other things. Mm hmm.

And so that's what campaigns are about, is building those coalitions. And I believe it can work. I have a moment that I keep thinking about. We were at the RNC in Dana Point, California, and Henry Barber, the longtime committee man from Mississippi, was telling me that, you know, I think he said directly that

Any plan that starts with anti-Trump is a losing one in this Republican Party. There was no universe to being able to build a party going forward that did not include bringing Donald Trump and his supporters along. What do you think when you hear that?

Well, I could see that argument. And that's an approach that many candidates right now for president are taking that let's just all get along and let's make sure we don't offend Donald Trump or take a position that might offend, you know, his ardent supporters. But, you know,

you know campaigns are about providing clarity in the decisions clarity and the choices that are made and whenever he is a former president united states he's almost like an incumbent the burden of proof is on you and if you don't contrast yourself with who you're running against you don't have a chance and so i think

What I would agree with Henry on is that we've got to bring along all of those ardent Trump supporters, not alienate them, but bring them along and say, this direction here can accomplish the conservative change that you want in America. We can just do it in a common sense, conservative approach without all the drama.

And that's what brings along people is not the division, but saying,

We're agreed on 80% of the issues, so let's fight the same battle together. When I talk to Democrats, they will ask, why aren't more Republicans making that argument? And it does seem like you are occupying a kind of unique role. You want to launch a campaign that speaks directly to those folks and makes that case to them. I guess I'm asking, where should we look for the evidence that that is working, that you're breaking through making those arguments to those ardent Trump supporters?

Well, it's first of all, the polling numbers. We've gone from negligible up. And so even though we're still a long ways from Donald Trump, our numbers are moving the right direction in contrast to Ron DeSantis. Myers is going the right direction. He's going the wrong direction. And so there's some evidence there, but also.

Join me. Come with me to Iowa. Come with me to South Carolina. And you can see the response of people that I speak to and work with. Is there any version of Donald Trump that you can imagine yourself supporting? If he was the nominee, would you support him?

Well, I expect to support the nominee of the party. That's likely to be a condition of participating in the debates. I don't expect that nominee will be Donald Trump. So that's where I am. Let's see where it goes.

I guess I want to ask only just one more, because like it's a civil core to the message you're running as president now that Donald Trump has taken the party and the country down a dark path. I guess if I am to believe you on that, how can you also not be clear whether you would or wouldn't vote for him in 2024?

Well, it's important to participate on the debate stage in Milwaukee in August. And I understand, although we haven't seen it yet, that there will be conditions that the participants support the nominee of the party.

I don't believe that nominee is going to be Donald Trump. I expect that the candidates will probably sign that commitment to support the nominee of their party. And the basis is that they believe it will be them, that it will not be Donald Trump. You know, I don't prefer party loyalty oaths. I don't like speculating down the road as to how this develops. We don't know what's going to happen. And so let's wait and see. But that's where I am right now.

Is there any universe where Donald Trump could lose your vote in 2024 if he's the nominee? Well, sure. I mean, we've...

You know, anything is there's some things that could happen in life that would cause me to nix a vote for any particular person. So I guess I'm asking because a lot has happened to him already. Right. Like he has been indicted. He has been impeached. He has gone through scandal. He's gone backwards on conservative promises. He's messed. He's you know, he's taking your party down a dark path. And we're still at this point. I'm saying what is the thing looking forward that that

that might make you feel that Donald Trump's version of the Republican party may not include a governor Hutchinson. Is there a point where that could be true? Well, of course, of course. I mean, you can, in your mind, think of a number of scenarios that, uh, uh, that, uh, you, you could not support somebody, but, uh,

uh we're not there uh and let's don't speculate on the future i'm you could say the absolute same thing about me uh you know there's things that could happen uh that positions i take or other things that's going to lose the support of other other potential nominees and so things change but

I fully expect the nominee to be somebody that I can support, and I expect her to be somebody different than Donald Trump. Thank you so much, Governor. I really appreciate your time. Hey, thank you. Good to be with you. So the numbers are there to block a Trump nomination. The anti-Trump coalition is big enough. And this year, they're acting with the lessons of 2016 in mind.

But I keep thinking about something Nate Cohn said to me last week, that the reasons Republicans oppose Donald Trump are varied, but the opportunities to bring them together are limited. So far, DeSantis' campaign against woke has been the only issue that's gained traction in both camps. And of course, that's exactly the thing that folks like Hutchinson and Hogan would prefer to minimize. This is the paradox of the moment.

Because of the nature of a primary, the path to a winning anti-Trump coalition would seem to require an embrace of the very grievances Trump brought to the fore. Next week, what happens to the millions of voters who are ready to turn the page on Trumpism but have nowhere to go?

This podcast is supported by Progressive Insurance. What if comparing car insurance rates was as easy as putting on your favorite podcast? With Progressive, it is. Just visit the Progressive website to quote with all the coverages you want. You'll see Progressive's direct rate. Then their tool will provide options from other companies so you can compare. All you need to do is choose the rating coverage you like. Quote today at Progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive.

Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Comparison rates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy. The Run-Up is reported by me, Ested Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Franny Kartoff and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, and Alicia Baitu. It was mixed by Corey Schreppel and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam Donick, Larissa Anderson, David Halfinger, Mahima Chablani, Desiree Ibequa, Renan Barelli, Jeffrey Miranda, Sophia Landman, and Maddie Maciela. If you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y'all. When it comes to making plans, you are the best.

from those delicious barbecues to special birthdays and unforgettable family get-togethers. The same way you plan for those important moments, start planning to protect you and your loved ones from a natural disaster like a hurricane, flood, wildfire, or tornado. Sign up for local weather and emergency alerts, prepare an emergency kit, and make a family communications plan. Get started today at ready.gov slash plan. A public service message brought to you by FEMA and the Ad Council.