cover of episode The 2024 Election Is Already Here

The 2024 Election Is Already Here

2023/4/3
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Astead Herndon
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Astead Herndon: 本期节目探讨了2024年美国总统大选的早期阶段,重点关注各方势力在幕后如何运作。2022年中期选举的结果显示,选民们拒绝了极端主义,特朗普的影响力有所下降,但共和党内部的右翼势力依然不容忽视。民主党则在中期选举中获胜,为拜登连任铺平了道路。节目还指出,总统竞选的早期阶段,重点在于党内领导人、活动家和捐款人,而非草根或摇摆选民。政治内部人士在此时更容易坦诚他们的动机和策略。 其他评论员:中期选举结果显示,美国民众拒绝了极端主义,特朗普支持的候选人几乎全军覆没,这表明特朗普的影响力正在下降,但他仍将在共和党内部进行斗争。众议院议长选举僵局显示,共和党内部的右翼势力不容忽视。民主党在中期选举中获胜,为拜登连任铺平了道路。特朗普与拜登再次对决的可能性很低,但两人都可能获得各自党派的提名。 其他评论员:对2024年大选的预测和分析,以及对共和党和民主党内部政治动态的解读。对特朗普在共和党内的影响力,以及他可能面临的刑事指控的讨论。对拜登连任前景的分析。对中期选举结果对2024年大选的影响的解读。对未来政治走向的预测。

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Last year. Election Day is just days away. At stake, 35 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the House, and just possibly the future of our democracy. Our big question heading into the midterms was about the country's commitment to democracy.

And the results... Were surprising in their clarity. Democracy.

It held, without mobs in the streets, without violence, despite all the election denialism out there. Voters across America There is a price to pay for right-wing extremism in this election. Seemed to reject extremism. Nearly all of Trump's handpicked candidates for governor and Senate in key races were defeated, including candidates who centered their campaigns on Trump's 2020 election lies.

Which meant: The biggest loser last night was Donald Trump. In state after state, candidates that he brought to the race did not win or are losing right now. This may be the moment that we discover that Donald Trump is not a kingmaker.

Donald Trump's power was in question. Trump is bleeding within the Republican Party and he will have to fight. But after years of reporting on the grassroots of both parties, I was skeptical it would be that simple. For the first time in 100 years, the House fails to elect a speaker on the first ballot as renegade Republicans block Congressman Kevin McCarthy from winning the top job.

The Speaker fight. After three days and hundreds of votes cast, the House has still not elected a Speaker. So the party's right wing wasn't going anywhere on its own. There are a handful of far-right holdouts, and they warn they will not support him during tomorrow's vote. McCarthy is hoping to seal the deal by making several concessions to these hardliners. And Kevin McCarthy's response showed the establishment wasn't willing, or maybe able, to reject them.

Meanwhile, this victory belongs to Joe Biden. Democrats were on a victory tour. The Biden track record is a phenomenal track record of accomplishment. And uniting around a second term for President Biden. I think he's demonstrated that he is deserving of re-election. Which left things in a pretty surreal place.

A redo of Trump v. Biden was unfathomable to most Americans, especially as an indictment loomed over Trump's head. But equally hard to imagine was either of them not securing their party's nomination. I knew the parties were going to have to wrestle with all of this.

I also knew that at this stage of the year, they typically do that behind closed doors. Because the early stages of a presidential race are not about the grassroots or even swing voters like a general election. This stage is about the insiders, the party leaders, and the activists and donors who shape the party's direction when the grassroots isn't looking.

And in fact: Donald Trump endorsed unprepared candidates and caused them to finish first in their primaries. I found that it's this window of time when political insiders are most willing to be honest about their motives and strategy. We'll never say that out loud because we're stupid.

At least some of them. Does any of the RNC's position change if Donald Trump is criminally indicted? Again, we are... Oh my gosh. I am not even going to go into hypotheticals. I mean, that's a very likely... That's been a signal from... Thank you. Thank you. How is that not a question we can ask? I answered the question. I answered that question. Okay, thank you. I appreciate that. I'm not going to go into hypotheticals. I don't think that's going to happen.

Later this week, we start our story inside the Republican Party as the year began. I'm Astead Herndon. The Run-Up is back.

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