cover of episode Has RFK Jr.'s Moment Passed?

Has RFK Jr.'s Moment Passed?

2024/8/15
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Jesse Vollmer
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Monica
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RFK Jr.
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Rob Schneider
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Steve
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主持著名true crime播客《Crime Junkie》的播音员和创始人。
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播音员:本文探讨了RFK Jr.的总统竞选,分析了他作为第三方候选人的影响力,以及他民调下降的原因,并采访了密歇根州的选民,了解他们对RFK Jr.以及其他候选人的看法。 Jesse Vollmer:对两大党候选人都不满意,选择支持RFK Jr.,认为这是表达自己政治观点的方式,而不是选择“两害相权取其轻”。他最初是通过RFK Jr.的书籍了解到他的观点,并认同他对新冠疫情的回应。 Monica:最初支持特朗普,但对拜登政府的电动汽车政策感到担忧,转向支持RFK Jr.。她认为拜登和特朗普同样糟糕,并用比喻表达了对RFK Jr.的支持。她后来参加了特朗普的集会,对集会的氛围和缺乏政策讨论感到失望,并对RFK Jr.在处理压力和回答问题方面的表现不佳感到担忧,最终决定在特朗普和哈里斯之间做出选择。 Steve:最初支持拜登,但对拜登政府在新冠疫情期间的应对措施感到不满,转向支持RFK Jr.。他认为主流媒体存在宣传和操纵,并认为RFK Jr.的竞选活动是对现有体制的反抗。 Rob Schneider:认为RFK Jr.之所以对当权派构成威胁,是因为他鼓励人们独立思考。 RFK Jr.:认为自己能够赢得大选,并非是其他候选人的搅局者,并承诺打破总统竞选的现状。 受访者:对拜登和特朗普都不满意,希望看到新一代有希望的人和新的想法;认为RFK Jr.的参选能够促使更多人参与投票;被RFK Jr.对慢性病问题的关注所打动;欣赏RFK Jr.在一些问题上的立场,特别是住房和环境问题。

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The podcast explores the rise of RFK Jr. as a third-party candidate in the 2024 presidential election, examining his initial popularity and the factors that made him a perceived threat to both major parties.

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This podcast is supported by USA for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency. UNHCR responds to humanitarian emergencies around the world that have caused record levels of displacement and human suffering. 90% of refugees live in countries facing food shortages and malnutrition. Your support is crucial in delivering vital aid to the world's most vulnerable families.

Will you help support refugees by making a gift today? Together, we can help refugees and displaced people all around the world. Donate today at unrefugees.org slash donation. Back in April, my colleague Anna and I drove up to quite the scene on an otherwise normal afternoon in Royal Oak, Michigan, just outside Detroit.

There's definitely protesters. There's a guy holding up a sign. There were hundreds of people waiting in line to get into an event. And a handful of other people dressed in full clown costumes, honking horns at the crowd.

There's signs that say, it's not funny, as someone is dressed in a clown costume. Another sign says, Michigan is on board for Biden-Harris. We always put ourselves in the messiest situation possible, you know? Like, literally, it would be like a straight line, and then the most, like, zigzaggy mess. We're like, we're doing that one. And that's how you end up at the Royal Oak Music Theater on a Sunday evening.

For a night of laughter with presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and friends. Let's do it. Okay. For much of this election cycle, it felt like if there was ever a time for a third-party candidate to emerge on the national stage, it was now. Both Democrats and Republicans had lined up behind unpopular, familiar choices. Frustration with the two-party system felt at an all-time high.

And people like RFK Jr. were polling at more than 20% in some states toward the end of last year, including 26% in Michigan, enough to raise alarm among their major party rivals. So at the height of that alarm, we went to this RFK Jr. event in Michigan, a state Donald Trump won by 11,000 votes in 2016, before Biden won it back in 2020. We wanted to talk to the people who showed up,

about what the parties might have done to lose them and how they were thinking about the potential impact of voting third party in a state that's so important to who ultimately wins the White House. Now, of course, a lot has changed in the RFK Jr. campaign and in the race overall. Today, what made RFK such a threatening spoiler? And has Kamala Harris effectively neutralized that threat?

From The New York Times, I'm Ested Hernton. This is The Run-Up. — Ready? — Yep. — This RFK Jr. event was actually a comedy show, where local and national comedians perform short sets ahead of an appearance from the candidate. And before the show started, we made our way down the line

to talk to folks about what brought them to support Kennedy. Thank you. I appreciate it. Can you just tell me your name? My name is Jesse Vollmer. Are you in Michigan? Yes. Awesome. Are you someone who considered yourself a Democrat or Republican before? No. No. You've always been someone who's been independent. I have in the past voted for candidates in the Democrat or in the...

In 2020, I voted Libertarian because I was already dissatisfied at that point with the direction both the major parties were headed. And what about 2016? When's the last major party candidate you voted for for president? Probably 2016. Trump or? Would have been before that, actually. Go back one more. Obama or Romney?

Yeah, well, it was a major party candidate for sure. Sounds good. Well, I guess I'm just wondering that because I want to know the transition. I want to know how you end up deciding on, you know, landing on outsider candidates and what message you're trying to send in doing that.

I think the party's just put forward really bad candidates that I didn't respect as leaders. And some people say, oh, we'll pick the lesser of two evils and don't throw away your vote. I think that's ridiculous. How can you ever get support for another party or an independent candidate if you don't vote when you believe in them and you don't believe in the other candidates? That's my stance. Can I ask, when did you first learn about RFK? Not long ago. I actually didn't know of him...

like maybe even like three years ago, I probably didn't really know much about him. Do you remember what was the thing that brought you to him? Like, was it one of his books? Was it a podcast? I believe I learned about him because of one of his books that had come out. Because I felt like our pandemic response was pretty, you know, like overly politicized and mishandled. And I wanted some other information about like what people in the science community that

had their voices shut down, thought about our response. And he was highlighting some of those voices. And that's, I think, what actually why I found out about him. I'm going to ask about the lesser of two evils argument. I'm sure you've heard a lot of times so many people, you know, the Biden folks are here right now kind of saying that this state is too important to kind of back someone who may not have national viability. I guess for you, um,

Is there any part of you that thinks, you know, specifically even in a Michigan because of its importance that, you know, backing someone who is less likely to be the eventual winner is more risky? Not at all. I'm not worried about it. I want my vote to go for a candidate I actually support and believe in. And I don't want to show support for a candidate that I don't think would be a good leader for our country. Thank you so much. We appreciate your time.

Jesse, to me, is a pretty classic RFK Jr. supporter. He agrees with his viewpoints, and this wouldn't be the first time he chose to vote third party. But here, this wasn't the type of voter I was most interested in. I wanted to meet someone who had voted for either Biden or Trump in 2020, and this time,

was deciding to back RFK Jr. over their previous choice. My name's Estepis, and I'm from the New York Times. We're talking to people about their interest in RFK and what brought them to this. Do you mind if I have a couple minutes to chat with you? Sure, I can do that. I appreciate it. Can you tell me your name? Monica. Monica, are you someone who's historically considered yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, anything like that?

Historically, I guess a libertarian. I'd like to think I was in the middle of the road. Everyone has the right to do whatever they want, but they have their own responsibilities to face the consequences of whatever their choices are. Recently, I guess I found myself leaning a little more conservative, actually. But I am excited about the idea of an independent candidate, and I am excited to see some awesome comedians that are joining RFK tonight. Yeah, you're back, Gary.

Monica told us she didn't vote in 2016, but voted for Trump in 2020. You mentioned that you treated more conservative recently. Is there anything that triggered that? What is causing that shift? If I had to boil it down, I guess my biggest concern right now is there's an old saying, if you're not liberal when you're young, you're heartless. If you're not conservative when you're older, you're mindless. I'll admit that I...

I'm very lucky to work for one of the big three. And I'm very afraid of the EV mandates that are being forced down. I don't feel that we have a lot of the infrastructure to support the electric vehicle mandates. And a lot of my co-workers are getting laid off right now because those vehicles take less parts and components to make. I'm...

Glad that the Democrats are standing by the UAW. It was really awesome to see Biden out at the picket lines when we were fighting. But it's not about people for me. It's about policies. And, you know, both RFK and the conservative candidates seem to be at least open to slowing down a lot of mandates that are going to make our infrastructure pretty challenged. You know, in Michigan specifically, because it matters so much,

there is a real fear among Biden type people that a support for RFK will cause them to lose the state or something like that. Do you think about whether those third party candidates pull from one candidate or another, the impact of those things on the broader electorate? I definitely do. And I think it's really amusing because everyone says it's going to pull from the other side. And I think that he may have a Bernie bro effect.

You had people who were really, really down for Bernie Sanders, me being one of them, a lot of my friends. We didn't have a party. And Bernie was at least that candidate that was speaking to us as more of like, you know, the common person. And when Bernie got bumped out and Hillary took the candidacy, we kind of felt cheated.

Fast forward, you got RFK. He tried to at least get a Democratic primary going. He got cheated. They didn't even give him the option to do a Democratic primary against. So you have these people who just kind of want the underdog to take a chance. And they're not necessarily Democrat or Republican. You asked me what I've been leaning recently. I gave it to you, but I ain't a Republican. I ain't a Democrat. Yeah.

Where does that leave you when you think about November? Are you someone who thinks Biden and Trump are equally bad for the country? RFK said he could argue both ways when he was talking about this. I'm curious if for you as someone who's supporting him, do you think of them as fairly equally bad? We're going to a comedy show. I want to get inside, so I'll leave you with my line or my joke that I've been telling people. You know, America, we're all in it together. We want to be a family and everything. Who would you rather have? The daughter and grandpa, the petulant screaming toddler,

Or the slightly crazy uncle. I'll go with slightly crazy Uncle Rob for now. Thank you. I appreciate it. You have a good rest of your day. Excuse me. How are you? My name's Ested. This is Anna from the New York Times. We're talking to people about their interest in RFK. You maybe have a couple minutes to chat with us before you go? Next, we met Steve, standing right outside the front door of the theater. Are you someone who knows how you're going to vote in November? You planning to vote for RFK? Yes, of course. And when did you first hear about him?

I've heard about him for a while, but I think when I really got into him was I heard him on Jordan Peterson's podcast maybe about, was it eight months ago? Almost a year ago. I hadn't heard that one. I heard a couple of his other ones. What was he saying on there that really caught your interest? It was just, actually, I never heard him speak before and he sounded like, his voice sounded like he was a really, really old man. So I was very intrigued why he was running for office and how he felt the Democratic Party had changed and

And I wanted to listen to him more, so I've been listening to him a lot since. Are you someone who historically had been a Democrat, Republican, or belonged to a political party? No, just independent mostly. I voted for both Republicans and Democrats for president. Okay, I'm curious, in 2020, did you back either Biden or Trump? Actually, Biden. You backed Biden. Yeah. I'm curious what Biden has done to lose your vote in those couple years. Everything. Can you be specific?

Just opening my eyes and getting, digging into the issues, starting to see what was happening. I mean, you know, what he did after COVID. I mean, Trump didn't do anything. I mean, he obviously made big mistakes during COVID, but Biden, you know, Biden hasn't made anything better. I mean, he's just, you know, he's... What were the COVID mistakes? Well, shutting the economy down. Okay. Right? I mean, you know, and censoring people that were outspoken against having to take a vaccine if they don't want to take a vaccine.

Did you consider voting for Trump or was always looking for a third option? No, I'm anti-Trump. I'm never a Trumper. In a state like Michigan where it matters so much, you know, the Biden folks would make the argument that you're the exact type of voter that they want to bring back for November. That didn't happen.

Not going to happen. No chance? No chance at all. It's so interesting to me how you feel really firm in that. I guess I get curious, have you changed your news consumption? Have you changed what you're listening to? Yes, yes. I'm not mainstream media. It's all propaganda, right? That's why I'm asking is to know how that transition changed. So what did you turn off? What did you turn into? I started listening to all types of forms of media. I was watching CNN and outlets like that. And I started digging into the issues rather than reading headlines.

and realizing it was a lot of, you know, I had to dig for the truth. There's a lot of corruption out there, a lot of propaganda, a lot of gaslighting, right? So I think I know a lot more about the issues now, and I'm still moderate. I'm not a Republican or a Democrat. I just want to seek the truth and do what's best for America. I want this country to be united, not divisive. My last question is maybe a provocative one, but like,

If the day after the election Trump wins in Michigan and RFK took some votes for Biden, would you think twice about it? I don't look at taking votes from anybody. I mean, I'd fail to subscribe to that narrative.

What do you mean? I just think people should vote for the best candidate. I mean, it's not about taking votes from either side. We shouldn't have a binary decision. We should be able to vote for whoever we want. If the media would stop icing him out and have their own, you know, agendas, I think people would seriously buy into what he's saying. And a lot of people don't know who he is. You know, I mean, I think they're ignoring him. Interesting. Thank you. I appreciate it. So Monica and Steve represent opposite journeys to RFK Jr.,

One grew sick of Democrats. The other grew sick of Republicans. But both landed in a place where they wanted to teach the parties a lesson and see Kennedy as a vehicle to do that. After we spoke to Steve, we headed into the show. The lobby was filled with buttons, T-shirts, and hats. On the wall, there were all these spoofs of old movie posters with Kennedy's image, like Rebel with a Cause. And while it started with some pretty standard comedy fare...

The night's theme quickly became clear. The comedians railed against woke culture.

I can make these jokes, by the way. My daughter's a lesbian. I'm gay-fathered in. Got a note in my pocket from the LGBTQ, WKRP, KFC crowd. Things like queer identity. I have a dad of a boy for now. Transgender rights. I know, it was pretty scary, the pandemic in the beginning. It was pretty scary, you know, because on your phone, you kept seeing all the stuff. And you're like, oh, man. COVID. This guy's parachute didn't open and he died of COVID. Fuck, you know, so it's weird.

And Kennedy's signature issue: vaccine safety. So anti-vaxxer, I think it's such an unfair term, you know. If you question the safety of airplanes, you know, like the new Boeing 737 Boeing Max, that doesn't make you anti-planer, you know. There was also a political message. All right, now, those are some jokes. I wrote this down. Delivered by the most famous comedian performing, who's also a personal friend of Kennedy.

Rob Schneider of Deuce Bigelowfay. Why Bobby Kennedy is a threat to the establishment is because he wants people to think for themselves. He's not going to tell you ever what to think. And you can't wait. Think for yourselves. Make your own decisions. We can't wait for these other people to become more rational, to become more sane. We can't. So please ask for evidence and listen to somebody who's a much better speaker than I am.

Schneider then brought up RFK Jr. himself to close out the night. So ladies and gentlemen, it is an honor to be able to stand with Bobby. Thank you. Thank you. He tried to crack a few jokes. I have a lot in common with comics and now that I'm in politics, you know, you're constantly standing in front of audiences and hoping that they like you. Also,

I think I share something else in common with them, that they all come from families that wish they had a different job. But ultimately ended with a message that had become central to his campaign at the time, that Trump and Biden were both existential threats to the country. And do any of you want more of the same? Do you think there's anybody in this country that really wants more of the same? No.

We need somebody who's going to do what I'm going to do. Kennedy's promise to disrupt the presidential race spoke to a lot of the people we talked to at the comedy show. I just can't vote for a convicted fraudster. I have three kids. I have to set some type of example. And I know Biden's not a saint, but he's not a convicted fraudster. He's not a convicted molester. I do think long term we need a new generation of hopeful people with new ideas.

And we're not getting that from Biden or Trump. Some had specific problems with either Biden or Trump. Others took issue with the parties themselves.

You know, there's not a Republican Party that I recognize anymore, which makes me very sad. And I have a hard time saying that I'm a Democrat, but I seem to be leaning more Democrat as time goes by. And, you know, all you can do is look and listen and try and vote for the right people. So are you happy that RFK is in the race, even if he is scaring Biden and the Democrats a little? Yeah, I am.

Just because of that? Just because of that. Because he's bringing people on board to vote that aren't going to show up for Biden or Trump. And that participation, good. Yes. Especially since if they create a habit of voting and being involved, feeling responsible for what we get at the end of November, right? That's what we need so I can go back home and go to bed, right? Does any part of you worry it leads to a Donald Trump second presidency? Oh, God.

Oh, I'm horrified. We also spoke to some true believers. I just want to say,

I just started watching his, like, campaigns on social media, and they, like, made me cry. So I was like, yeah, this makes a lot... What did you see it, and what issue really connected with you? Chronic illness, epidemic. Like, just, I look around, and, like, just, like, people are... So many of my friends struggle with, like, autoimmune disorders and, like, health problems. Because it's like, if the health care is shitty, then, like...

Regardless of how you're accessing it, you're just not going to be healthy. Who liked that Kennedy was leaning into issues that are less talked about by the two major parties. I research Bobby's platform, and I really like his stance on many issues, particularly housing. I think he's great for the environment, and I think he's very truthful. For a while, when this race was defined by a sense of voter disillusionment,

RFK Jr. felt like a candidate on the rise, and whether they actually liked him or supported his policies felt almost secondary to many of his fans. To a lot of people, RFK Jr.'s candidacy was something of a political middle finger to the establishment, the two-party system, and Biden and Trump.

And that sentiment alone was enough to form a disjointed coalition that, at its peak, reached more than 20% in national polls. But a lot has changed since that April evening in Michigan. So I wanted to know, for some of the people we spoke to in Michigan, are they still thinking Kennedy now that the race has been flipped upside down? That's after the break. This podcast is supported by BetterHelp.

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- Hello, this is Yuande Kamalefa from "New York Times Cooking," and I'm sitting on a blanket with Melissa Clark. - And we're having a picnic using recipes that feature some of our favorite summer produce. Yuande, what'd you bring? - So this is a cucumber agua fresca. It's made with fresh cucumbers, ginger, and lime.

How did you get it so green? I kept the cucumber skins on and pureed the entire thing. It's really easy to put together and it's something that you can do in advance. Oh, it is so refreshing. What'd you bring, Melissa?

Well, strawberries are extra delicious this time of year, so I brought my little strawberry almond cakes. Oh, yum. I roast the strawberries before I mix them into the batter. It helps condense the berries' juices and stops them from leaking all over and getting the crumb too soft. Mmm. You get little pockets of concentrated strawberry flavor. That tastes amazing. Oh, thanks. New York Times Cooking has so many easy recipes to fit your summer plans. Find them all at NYTCooking.com. I have sticky strawberry juice all over my fingers.

So, you may not have noticed, considering all the recent changes in the presidential race, but in the last month or so, things have not gone great for the RFK Jr. campaign. National poll numbers have dropped from more than 20% toward the end of last year to about 5% as of now. Just this week, a judge in New York disqualified him from the November ballot, saying that Kennedy failed to meet residency requirements.

And there seems to be a constant stream of headlines about something amiss with the candidate or campaign, like the story about the possible worm lodged in his brain, or the time Kennedy dumped a dead bear in the middle of Central Park in New York. Plus, now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee and not President Biden, the central theme of Kennedy's campaign seems to have been undercut.

So instead of focusing his pitch on two familiar, unpopular rivals, Kennedy now talks more about his platform, issues like free speech, corporate capture, and the kind of messages we heard at the comedy show.

Some of the folks we called back said those ideas still resonated with them.

It would be fun and romantic to have, like, a biracial female as president, but not at the expense of whoever is the most qualified. They were unmoved by the new Harris campaign. If newness and energy is what's most important to you, then, you know, good luck to you. But I'm focused on what's important for this country, my children's future, you know, not some fluff.

And unfazed by the new challenges facing RFK Jr. I try to look at a whole bunch of polls just to understand the validity of them, and I'm not believing it. I tend to believe that he's kind of closer to 20%. Even the bad headlines. Have you followed, you know, any of RFK's...

news over the past month or so. There was some news about the drama with him and this dead bear in New York City. Oh, yeah. I mean, even the brain worm. Like, does any of that stuff register for you? It's like, it's not, like, that sinister. It's kind of funny and kind of endearing, in my opinion. These folks, who had voted for Biden and Trump last time around, had their minds set.

But for the other people we met, things had changed a lot since April. Hello? Hi, my name is Ested Herndon. I'm a reporter for The New York Times. I was looking for Monica. Hello. Hey, how are you? Can you hear me? This is Monica. Yep, I'm doing well. This is Monica again, the autoworker who said she had voted for Trump in 2020 and was skeptical about the Biden administration's efforts to get more electric vehicles on the road.

Can you just tell me again some biographical information about yourself? How old are you? What you do? What part of Michigan you're in? Female, 37 years old. I work for Stellantis. I am a line production worker. I work at Warren Truck where we make the Jeep Grand Wagoneer. And we were just told today on a conference call we were no longer...

be making the RAM 1500, which is our bread and butter. So we are going from two shifts down to one shift and half the plant may lose their job. Oh no, I'm sorry to hear that. You just learned that today? We just learned that today. It was a rumor in the air. I remember the EV mandate coming up the last time we talked. It's one of the reasons you were unsure if you wanted to vote for President Biden come this time around again. Can you tell me,

how some of these changes in your industry have affected the way that you're viewing the presidential race? You know, we could talk about how it made me feel about Biden, but Biden's not a factor anymore. Yeah, I mean, that's a great point. I guess I, let me first ask then, what did you think about President Biden's decision to step down? And what have you thought about the early days of the new Kamala Harris campaign?

Well, I think that making the decision to step down on Biden's part was definitely the right decision to do. I wish there would have been more time for some sort of Democratic primary instead of someone being assigned to be president.

Yeah, I would have preferred if we would have at least heard from Gretchen Whitmore, of course. I'm from Michigan, so I'm going to throw her name out there. Or Shapiro, even though he's pretty, you know, younger, newer to the scene. Or even give RFK another look. I mean, he's definitely fallen out of favor. I think his peak was probably back in November of 2023. But...

Um, you know, for, for us to kind of just have the whirlwind and I understand there's not necessarily much time for a primary. It just would have been nice to hear a little more discussion instead of just, um,

the whole inaugural party. Well, this is the next one up in line. It's just kind of reminding me of a whole, I don't want to say royal bloodline, but like line of succession for sure. Well, tell me, where has this led you? Do you feel like you are any closer to knowing who you're going to vote for in November? And how has that changed since the last time we talked?

Since the last time we talked, I had the opportunity to actually, I'm not very politically involved, but I like listening and I like watching people. So I went to the big Trump weekend that was at Kobo Center about a month and a half ago, and that was a learning experience.

What do you mean? I went there thinking I was going to be able to be like, okay, this is a conservative platform. I think it was done through Turning Point, and I could go there and I could learn, okay, what is the conservative standpoint? You know, I'm a union worker. Why? You know, convince me. Talk to me. Sell me something, you know? It wasn't anything to learn about policy. It was a pep rally for people who already...

decided how they were voting and i was not aware of that so you know i i tend to lean a little more conservative on fiscal policy a little more liberal on social policy but i mean everyone was nice it had a really good vibe to it but when vivek was on stage

Not necessarily when Trump was on stage, but when Vivek was on stage and he was kind of rallying everyone up and they started chanting the USA, USA. I'm born in Detroit. I love America. I want to put my fist up and chant too, but I would be remiss if not to admit that I feel like I've seen this before in black and white where the people's hands were not fists, they were straight.

And it wasn't racist at all. It was, there was no racial tension at all. It was all more nationalist vibe. And you didn't like that. It,

I didn't love it. It was definitely something that I had to sit and recognize and say, I understand how this energy could get way out of hand and dangerous. There was that potential in the room. Now, I love when Trump came on stage. He talked about the automotive industry, talking about why union members should vote for the conservative ticket.

So it seems like you're in a bit of a pickle. If you went to the Trump rally and wasn't fully enjoying that, you kind of recognize... I heard that... Go ahead. I'm sorry, you're breaking up for me a little. Can you say again where your vote you think has landed or what your calculus is at this point?

My calculus is up in the air in the fact that when I saw RFK, I wanted to vote for RFK as an independent, but I just can't go with a lot of his platforms and how he's handling himself. Trump, I like a lot of his policies, but I can't get with a lot of the energy of what was going on at that rally.

Harris, I have to hear what she has to say on a lot of these things. I haven't heard the policy or her speak on them yet. I'm the type of person who, if I don't feel comfortable voting for anyone, I won't vote for anyone.

So is that where you are right now? You're still looking for someone to convince you? Yes, I'm still looking for someone to convince me to vote for either Harris or Trump, but it's probably not going to be RFK at this point, despite Joe Rogan. Can you tell me what RFK has done to lose your interest? He doesn't seem to handle himself well under pressure in Congress.

wouldn't put in a pinch for decisions or answers on the point. When I was at RK's original rally, when he was at Macomb, I asked him, I said, hey, you know, as a...

free market capitalist and an environmentalist. How do you feel about the easy mandate? And he looked at me and he said, I don't know right now. I'd have to read more. Do you want a selfie? And I got a selfie with RFK, but the man didn't know the answer to the question. And he, and he didn't, he said, I don't know that right now. I've seen a lot of things with him on TV where he's just kind of given answers. Yeah.

It doesn't seem like it's working from a place of expertise. And while you like kind of his general message, it didn't necessarily inspire confidence. He seems a little out of his depth, just a little bit. So it seems like you are looking for either Trump to convince you or Harris to convince you. Yes. Yep. At this point, yes. Is there something you're looking for to make that decision? Maybe this debate that's coming up?

Yeah, no, for sure. That's one thing. And a lot of it is listening to my coworkers at the plant and the ones that are involved with the union and have them at our tap on the exact policies. You know, the UW is very, very good. They do pull for the Democrat, but they are very, very good at telling us, you know, this is the reason we think that these people...

on a ticket would be beneficial to us as a union. So, you know, taking that into account, taking my own personal politics into account and listening to my friends and family. But no, it's still totally up in the air for me. Okay, well, thank you. Maybe we'll check in before November, but this was quite helpful. It seems like the biggest thing that shifted from then to now is that RFK Jr. has kind of fallen off your radar, even as the other two remain on them.

Correct. Very, very much so. You know, the one thing I'll kind of close with is if I were sitting in a prettier situation where I was higher in seniority and I could vote for my fellow man, I would probably be a lot more charitable with my voice. But things are tight. Things are tight in Michigan, especially. We're in this motor city and we're about to lose our damn lives.

model year. I got a call this morning saying, Hey, you might be laid off indefinitely. Here's how many weeks of unemployment you get. And me being able as an unskilled, no, no, uh, college actual degree. I got some college work to be able to go find anywhere. I'd be making $15 less an hour and my benefits would be nowhere comparable. So it's, I'm going to vote for me and I'm going to vote for whatever keeps,

keeps the cars in the Motor City at this point. That's your priority? Yeah, for me personally, which is very, very niche and unfair for me to put something like that on a national ticket. But, you know, I'm self-preserving at this point. Well, I think that's really helpful and important for people to hear. So thank you for being honest and being open with us. Well, most definitely. All righty. Have a great day. Well, take care. Bye. Back in March, when we talked to RFK Jr. directly...

He was adamant that he was running a campaign that could win, that he wasn't a spoiler for Biden or Trump, and that he pulled equally from both sides. But in the months that have come since, each one of those assertions seems more and more unlikely. As people like Monica have crossed RFK Jr. off their list, and the candidacy of Kamala Harris has given Democrats an injection of energy and unity.

In fact, some of Harris' rise in polling could be linked to RFK Jr.'s fall, as her candidacy benefits from coalescing support from voters who are recently undecided or third-party curious. In other words, Kennedy may still end up playing the role of spoiler in November, just not for the candidate or party he might have expected.

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Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Comparison rates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy. That's the run-up for Thursday, August 15th, 2024.

And now, the Rundown. This week, Elon Musk hosted Donald Trump for a conversation on X. I'm honored to have this conversation. I want to emphasize it's a conversation. And it's really intended to just get a feel for what Donald Trump is just like in a conversation. Which started roughly 40 minutes late due to technical difficulties and lasted two hours.

The tech billionaire has endorsed the former president's latest run. On Wednesday, Trump hit the trail in Asheville, North Carolina, to talk about the economy. And on Friday, Harris will also be in North Carolina, rolling out her economic policy plan. On Tuesday, voters in Connecticut, Vermont, Minnesota, and Wisconsin cast votes in primaries. In Minnesota...

A member of the squad clinches a win in a closely watched primary challenge. Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar fended off several Democratic competitors in Tuesday's primary. This comes after two other squad members, Jamal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri, lost their primaries. And finally, an update on a story we covered this spring in Arizona.

The Arizona Secretary of State's office said this week that a measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution gathered enough signatures to make it on the November ballot. A similar measure will also be on the ballot in Missouri. There are four days till the Democratic National Convention and 82 days until the general election. We'll see you on Monday for the first day of the convention, and we'll be with you throughout the week from Chicago. The Run-Up is reported by me, Ested Herndon.

and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Landman, and Alicia Baitube. It was mixed by Sophia Landman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam Dolnik, Larissa Anderson, David Halfinger, Maddie Maciello, Mahima Chablani, Nick Pittman, and Jeffrey Miranda. Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at therunupatnytimes.com. Or better yet, record your question using the Voice Memo app on your phone, and then send us the file. That email again is therunupatnytimes.com.

And finally, if you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y'all.

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