cover of episode All Eyes on Pennsylvania

All Eyes on Pennsylvania

2024/11/4
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People
A
Alex Thompson
一名长期跟踪报道美国总统竞选活动的资深新闻记者。
C
Chrissy Houlihan
M
Mark McKinnon
M
Matt Gorman
M
Megan Hayes
R
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
主持人
专注于电动车和能源领域的播客主持人和内容创作者。
特朗普
美国企业家、政治人物及媒体名人,曾任第45任和第47任美国总统。
Topics
主持人:宾夕法尼亚州是关键战场州,两名候选人都将在那里发表最后讲话。最新民调显示,哈里斯在爱荷华州领先,这令人震惊,因为民主党自2012年以来就没有赢得过该州。哈里斯在周六夜现场的惊喜客串。特朗普在竞选最后阶段使用煽动性言论,攻击媒体,并对选举结果表示怀疑。特朗普及其盟友正在实施一项策略,该策略借鉴了他四年前挑战败选时使用的颠覆性策略。特朗普试图通过施压佐治亚州国务卿和副总统来推翻选举结果。特朗普及其支持者正在制造一种不可避免的胜利感,以便在输掉选举时更容易引起支持者的不满。最新民调显示,哈里斯和特朗普在战场州的支持率不相上下,但越来越多的决定性选民倾向于支持哈里斯。爱荷华州的最新民调显示哈里斯领先特朗普,这令人震惊,因为爱荷华州通常是共和党占优势的州。 Alex Thompson:哈里斯的势头增强,特朗普阵营士气低落,双方对选举结果都不确定。特朗普的竞选策略是描绘一个黑暗的国家形象,而哈里斯则采取乐观积极的态度。哈里斯调整演讲策略以应对不同选民群体的弱点。 Megan Hayes:民主党人对选举结果更加乐观,认为哈里斯的积极信息能够吸引更多选民。特朗普的愤怒信息无法吸引摇摆不定的女性选民,而哈里斯的乐观信息则可以吸引更多选民投票。 Matt Gorman:塞尔策的民调结果可能不准确,但值得关注的是竞选活动的行动。塞尔策的民调方法与其他民调机构不同,这可能导致结果偏差。塞尔策的民调方法可能存在偏差,导致结果不准确。 Chrissy Houlihan:宾夕法尼亚州对哈里斯的支持热情高涨,尤其是在郊区和农村地区。宾夕法尼亚州的女性选民,特别是农村地区的老年女性,对哈里斯抱有希望。特朗普的言论令人不安,显示了他可能再次当选总统后会如何执政。一些选民仍然感到被遗忘,并寻求能理解他们感受的候选人。民主党未能有效地沟通其平台及其与共和党平台的差异。 Mark McKinnon:特朗普将波多黎各称为“垃圾”的言论激怒了宾夕法尼亚州的波多黎各裔选民,并导致一些人转向支持哈里斯。哈里斯在65岁以上女性选民中的支持率很高,这可能对选举结果产生重大影响。即使塞尔策的民调结果部分错误,其方向性也可能表明哈里斯在关键战场州的优势。哈里斯将赢得选举,原因是女性选民的热情和老年女性选民的支持。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Pennsylvania considered a crucial state in the election?

Pennsylvania is key because both candidates are set to deliver their final messages there, and it could be a deciding factor in the election outcome.

Why is the Iowa poll showing Kamala Harris leading significant?

The Iowa poll is significant because it shows a three-point lead for Harris in a state Democrats haven't won since 2012, indicating potential late momentum shifts.

What strategy is Donald Trump employing in the final days of his campaign?

Trump is using dark rhetoric, attacking the media, and casting doubts on election results, similar to his tactics in challenging his 2020 loss.

How did Trump's pressure on Georgia's Secretary of State reflect his broader strategy?

Trump's pressure on Georgia's Secretary of State to find votes mirrored his broader strategy of undermining election integrity and setting the stage for potential challenges to the result.

What does the final New York Times-Siena College poll indicate about the current state of the race?

The poll shows the race is neck and neck in battleground states, with late deciding voters breaking 55% for Harris and 44% for Trump.

Why is the Iowa poll from Ann Seltzer and the Des Moines Register considered shocking?

The poll is shocking because it shows Harris leading in Iowa, a state that has been reliably red and hasn't voted for a Democrat since 2012.

What is the significance of the 'granny gap' in the Seltzer poll?

The 'granny gap' refers to Harris leading among women over 65 by 35 points, a significant shift from Trump's previous leads in this demographic.

How does the Trump campaign view the Seltzer poll in Iowa?

The Trump campaign is dismissing the Seltzer poll as inaccurate, despite its historical reliability, and focusing on other polls showing a tighter race.

What impact could the Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania have on the election?

The Puerto Rican community, angered by Trump's comments about Puerto Rico, could be a decisive factor in Pennsylvania, a state where their votes could swing the election.

How does the SNL appearance of Kamala Harris compare to past candidates' appearances?

Harris' SNL appearance follows a tradition of candidates using the show to humanize themselves, similar to Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, though Trump had to request equal time due to FCC rules.

Chapters
Analysts discuss the shifting momentum in the final days of the election, with Kamala Harris gaining traction and Trump's campaign showing signs of anxiety.
  • Kamala Harris is perceived to have momentum, with late deciding voters breaking for her.
  • Trump's campaign is increasingly anxious, with morale low since September.
  • Both sides acknowledge uncertainty about the final outcome.

Shownotes Transcript

Both candidates are set to deliver their final messages in the crucial commonwealth. Meanwhile, a shocking new poll shows Kamala Harris leading in Iowa. Democrats haven't won the Hawkeye state since 2012. And we revisit Harris' surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live. 

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