cover of episode Timothy Snyder on Why Ukraine Can Still Win the War

Timothy Snyder on Why Ukraine Can Still Win the War

2024/9/24
logo of podcast The Political Scene | The New Yorker

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
D
David Remnick
T
Timothy Snyder
Topics
Timothy Snyder: 乌克兰人民的士气虽然低落，但他们坚持战斗是因为俄罗斯占领比抵抗更糟糕。他们对美国的支持抱有现实态度，认识到美国政策可能发生剧烈变化。他们认为，赢得战争的关键在于削弱俄罗斯的政治体系，而非单纯的领土争夺。俄罗斯经常输掉战争，这与他们自认为强大而低估对手的帝国心态有关。乌克兰的胜利策略并非直接对抗，而是通过消耗战和间接手段来瓦解俄罗斯。俄罗斯对人员伤亡的漠视与乌克兰的重视形成鲜明对比。俄罗斯征兵策略的变化，将对其战争能力产生影响。自由不仅仅是消极的，更是积极的，它需要主动争取。美国低估了乌克兰人民为自由而战的决心。全球范围来看，乌克兰战争促使人们重新认识自由的意义，即自由并非被动接受，而是需要主动争取和维护。乌克兰的失败将对全球自由事业造成严重打击。乌克兰人使用的“去占领”一词，强调了自由不仅仅是邪恶的缺失，更是积极善的体现。作者在书中阐述了其对自由的理解，并由此推导出构建更好美国的政治策略。构建更好美国需要社会民主主义的元素，例如带薪休假和医疗保障。 David Remnick: 美国对乌克兰战争的预测准确，但低估了乌克兰获胜的可能性。历史上，小国往往赢得战争，这与大国经常输掉战争的现象一致。美国媒体对乌克兰战争的报道，容易反映出美国自身短暂的注意力跨度，低估了乌克兰人民的韧性。乌克兰的失败将取决于美国的支援，而非乌克兰自身的意志。俄罗斯的失败取决于普京的判断或其失去权力。普京和泽连斯基的领导风格和优劣势不同，这影响了战争的走向。美国对乌克兰援助的节奏太慢，错过了2022年秋季乌克兰取得重大进展的机会。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Timothy Snyder discusses the Ukrainian resolve and the historical context of smaller nations winning wars. He highlights the importance of U.S. support and the psychological impact of potential political shifts.
  • Smaller countries have historically won wars since 1945.
  • Ukraine's resilience stems from the dire consequences of Russian occupation.
  • US support plays a crucial role in Ukraine's psychological strength.

Shownotes Transcript

Since the war in Ukraine began, the historian Timothy Snyder has made several trips to Ukraine, and it was there that he wrote parts of his newest book, “On Freedom.” The author of “Bloodlands” and “On Tyranny,” Snyder spoke in Ukrainian with soldiers, farmers, journalists, and politicians, including President Volodymyr Zelensky.  He talks with David Remnick about the Ukrainian conviction that they can win the war, and the historical trends that support that conviction.  But the thrust of Snyder’s new book is to apply what he learned from them to larger principles that apply to our own country.  In areas taken back from Russian control, Ukrainians would tell Snyder they were “de-occupied,” rather than liberated; “freedom,” he writes, “is not just an absence of evil but a presence of good.”

“If you think that freedom is just negative,” Snyder told David Remnick, “if you think that freedom is just an absence of [evil] things, I think you then argue yourself into a position where given the absence, stuff is going to work out. … The market is going to deliver you freedom, or the founding fathers … something else is going to deliver you freedom. And that of course is wrong. It’s an essentially authoritarian conviction. Because if anyone’s going to deliver you freedom, it’s going to be you, in some way.” 

Share your thoughts on The Political Scene. As a token of our appreciation, you will be eligible to enter a prize drawing up to $1,000 after you complete the survey.

https://selfserve.decipherinc.com/survey/selfserve/222b/76152?pin=1&uBRANDLINK=4&uCHANNELLINK=2)