cover of episode Donald Trump Returns. What Now?

Donald Trump Returns. What Now?

2024/11/8
logo of podcast The Political Scene | The New Yorker

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

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People
D
David Remnick
E
Evan Osnos
J
Jane Mayer
S
Susan Glasser
Topics
Susan Glasser:特朗普的连任意味着美国将进入他执政的第八年,共和党也已完全激进化。他通过强调“控制”的简单信息,赢得了共和党核心支持者和独立选民的支持。拜登政府对通货膨胀和生活成本上涨等问题的应对缓慢,导致民众不满。民主党对选民的构成和倾向的假设是错误的,例如,相当一部分少数族裔和年轻选民投票支持特朗普。 Susan Glasser:虽然经济不平等是影响政治的重要因素,但这并非特朗普此次获胜的唯一原因。特朗普公开表达的性别歧视和厌女情绪令人担忧。总统竞选和参议院竞选的结果存在差异,这反映了选民对女性总统候选人的看法可能与对女性参议员候选人的看法不同。特朗普提供的是一种世界观和简单的解释,而民主党候选人则更关注具体的政策问题。拜登政府未能找到有效的叙事策略,这影响了其在选举中的表现。民主党对2022年中期选举结果的解读存在偏差,低估了特朗普的影响力。民主党低估了特朗普的政治影响力,未能有效应对其带来的挑战。 Susan Glasser:如果特朗普控制司法部,他可能会对政治对手采取行动。特朗普在第一任期就曾试图利用司法系统来打击政治对手。特朗普可能会破坏司法部和联邦调查局的独立性。许多所谓的“规范”并非法律,而是社会习俗,其约束力取决于人们是否会反抗。特朗普的无能和混乱可能会限制其权力。罗伯特·肯尼迪三世对某些选民有吸引力,这可能是特朗普获胜的一个因素。罗伯特·肯尼迪三世的一些言论令人担忧,例如他提议去除饮用水中的氟化物。 Susan Glasser:人们往往对特朗普的言论和行为采取选择性忽视的态度。特朗普的胜利部分原因是部分支持堕胎权的白人女性仍然投票给了他。对特朗普胜利的反应与2016年不同,这次更多的是沮丧和无力感。特朗普赢得普选票这一事实,使得人们不得不重新思考民主党所代表的价值观和目标群体。民主党需要认真反思自身的问题,并重新审视其内部的派系矛盾。认为特朗普会成为一个温和的总统是一种幻想。关注特朗普是否会实施反民主和威权主义的政策。 Jane Mayer:不能将所有问题都归咎于特朗普的“疯狂”,许多选民的投票是基于现实存在的经济问题。特朗普虽然是富豪总统,却成功地表达了经济弱势群体的不满情绪,这与长期存在的经济不平等有关。特朗普最有效地利用了白人的不满情绪。特朗普的竞选活动极度厌女,这给哈里斯的竞选带来了额外的挑战。特朗普可能会利用权力来终止针对自己的调查,并影响最高法院的组成。关注法治能否约束特朗普及其政府的行为,防止其滥用权力。许多所谓的“规范”并非法律,而是社会习俗,其约束力取决于人们是否会反抗。拉斯·沃德是特朗普政府中一个值得关注的人物,他既是意识形态激进分子,又熟悉华盛顿官僚体系。金钱政治腐蚀了美国两党,这使得民主党难以成为劳动人民的代言人。普通公民也能够在维护民主方面发挥作用。 Evan Osnos:美国社会流动性下降,导致民众对经济不平等的感受加剧,这影响了民主党在选举中的表现。民主党在经济问题上的应对不足,导致部分选民转向共和党。马斯克对特朗普的支持,预示着美国政治中寡头政治的加强。关注机构如何保护弱势群体,尤其是在特朗普政府可能再次出现侵犯人权行为的情况下。人们对法西斯主义的理解正在淡化,这使得对特朗普的评价变得更加困难。虽然特朗普获胜,但民主党仍然拥有相当规模的支持者基础。 David Remnick:奥巴马成功地利用民权运动的语言来推动政策议程,而民主党缺乏类似的叙事能力。特朗普的竞选叙事简单直接,强调自己是拯救美国的强者,而民主党缺乏有效的反制策略。主流媒体在信息生态系统中的主导地位已经丧失。许多人对特朗普的威权主义倾向表示担忧,但选民对此并不在意。特朗普有效地利用文化战争议题来争取独立选民的支持。民主党需要反思其在候选人选择和竞选策略上的失误。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Donald Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election despite his controversial past?

Trump's ability to resonate with voters' economic anxieties, particularly regarding cost of living and inequality, played a significant role. His simple message of control, complaint, and resistance appealed to a broad spectrum of voters, including those who felt the Biden administration was slow to address economic issues.

How did Trump manage to win over independent and low-frequency voters in the 2024 election?

Trump's campaign focused on a straightforward message of control, complaint, and resistance, which resonated with voters who felt a sense of deep inequality and anti-incumbency. His ability to voice the resentments of economically disadvantaged voters was a key factor.

Why did the Democratic Party struggle to connect with economically disadvantaged voters in the 2024 election?

The Democratic Party, despite its self-image as the champion of economic issues, failed to effectively communicate a narrative that addressed the defining economic fact of reduced social mobility and growing inequality. This disconnect was evident in the party's inability to galvanize support around economic grievances.

What role did misogyny play in the 2024 election, particularly against Kamala Harris?

Misogyny was a significant factor, with Trump running a highly misogynistic campaign that targeted Harris directly. The daily insults and attacks on women, including Harris, highlighted the ongoing power of sexism and misogyny in American politics.

How did the Democratic Party misjudge the political landscape after the 2022 midterms?

The party overestimated its coalition's strength on issues like democracy and the impact of the Dobbs decision. This misjudgment led to a catastrophic misreading of the electorate's mood, contributing to the party's failure to effectively counter Trump's narrative.

What are the potential consequences of Trump's second term on the U.S. Supreme Court?

Trump could replace two conservative justices, potentially creating a Supreme Court dominated by conservative ideology until 2045. This shift could further erode post-Watergate norms and expand executive power, significantly impacting American democracy.

How might Trump use his control over the Justice Department in his second term?

Trump is likely to push for the prosecution of political opponents, a move that would break democratic norms and traditions. His history of demanding investigations into his rivals suggests he will continue to weaponize law enforcement for political gain.

What impact might Elon Musk's support for Trump have on American politics?

Musk's alignment with Trump could create an oligarchic arrangement where policy and profit are deeply intertwined. This fusion of influence and transaction could further corrupt the political process, making it more difficult to separate policy from personal gain.

How did Trump's foreign policy stance during the 2024 campaign resonate with voters?

Trump's campaign effectively blamed Biden for global conflicts, such as Putin's invasion of Ukraine and Hamas's attack on Israel. This gaslighting ploy resonated with a significant chunk of the electorate, particularly those who pay less attention to foreign policy.

What challenges does the Democratic Party face in reconnecting with voters after the 2024 election loss?

The party needs to address its disconnect with economically disadvantaged voters and reconsider its messaging on economic issues. There is also a need to balance the influence of the progressive left with a more inclusive and economically focused narrative.

Chapters
David Remnick and colleagues discuss Trump's unexpected victory, his appeal to diverse voter groups, and the Democrats' failure to address key issues.
  • Trump won both the Electoral College and popular vote, a first for a Republican since 2004.
  • Economic inequality and the Democrats' inability to address it were significant factors.
  • Trump appealed to independent and low-frequency voters with a message of control.

Shownotes Transcript

The Washington roundtable is joined by David Remnick, the editor of The New Yorker, to discuss how Donald Trump, a convicted felon and sexual abuser, won both the Electoral College and the popular vote—a first for a Republican President since 2004. Democrats lost almost every swing state, even as abortion-rights ballot measures found favor in some conservative states. On this crossover episode with The New Yorker Radio Hour, they discuss Kamala Harris’s campaign, Trump’s overtly authoritarian rhetoric, and the American electorate’s rightward trajectory. 

This week’s reading:

To discover more podcasts from The New Yorker, visit newyorker.com/podcasts. To send in feedback on this episode, write to [email protected]) with “The Political Scene” in the subject line.