Wetting the Bed (with Howard Wolfson)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. And honestly, there's been no president since Abraham Lincoln, and perhaps in a certain way, including Abraham Lincoln, but there's been no president since Abraham Lincoln that has done more for America

the black individual in this country than President Donald J. Trump. There's been nobody, not even close. There you have it, Mike Murphy. Better than honest Abe. The great emancipator is in second place. I hope there's room on Mount Rushmore. You know, it's a big mountain. Maybe we can fit one more in. They maybe can turn it into condos. Yeah, well, you would try. You would try with sautéed dough. Okay, so here we are.

Yeah. Go ahead and introduce our guest here because he's right there in the belly of the beast where... I know. We had to go to the pro. The long-running show is about to end. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Who can give us the eyewitness report and a lot of political insight across the board. Our dear friend, hack extraordinaire, Howard Wilson. Howard, welcome to Hacks. Good to be with you. You're close up, so you must be getting a lot of...

of coverage of this trial down there in lower Manhattan, certainly in the New York Post, coverage of a certain kind. What is your sense, A, of where this is going, and B, whether it matters? There's nobody that I know in New York who's following this at all other than the

Trump acolytes who show up to the trial wearing their identical suits and red ties. Had the Hell's Angels guy there yesterday. Looking like Donald Trump in his suit. I do not think it will have any impact whatsoever on the presidential campaign and will have been a tremendous waste of time. Well, he would agree with you on that. So let me ask you, let me just probe a little at both you guys.

Is that true if whether he gets convicted or whether he gets off, likely by a hung jury? I mean, does it matter what the outcome is? Because, I mean, one of the things I'm wondering is whether it puts just a little bit more wind in his sails if he gets off. I would agree. I think I don't really think the outcome matters all that much. But I think if he is convicted,

not found guilty, which would be my guess what's going to happen. It will actually put, as you put it, a little wind in his sails. I think it only matters at the margins. I don't think, I think his conduct for the guy who's Mr. Strongman, and I understand the argument, oh, he's taken on the system, he looks strong. I think he's looked kind of weak and mangy during all this, and defensive and old. So I think on the margins, it hasn't been good for him.

If he's convicted, I think it also reminds people who hate Trump why they hate him and maybe they hate him a little more. But if it is a hung jury, he will just bellow from the rooftops. I've been cleared. They could not convicted. He'll turn that into an acquittal. And net net, that could help him a little bit. And I think I'm kind of with Howard. I think there's a real fighting chance that can happen.

All in all, though, I think it's secondary. I think, again, as much as we obsess about Trump, this race is still about Biden. And that's the problem. And that's why Trump's winning right now. Howard, we didn't share all your luminous credentials as a hack here. We just short-circuited and stipulated that you're a great hack. Well, he's legendary. But he worked for years for Hillary Clinton, worked with her in her presidential race, worked for Chuck Schumer.

and has been around politics all his life, before working for Mike Bloomberg as deputy mayor and since, and also in that presidential race. Howard, I guess I'm interested in the read in New York about why this—a lot of us thought this is the last thing that Biden would want for this trial to be the first trial, maybe the only trial of Trump. Is that your sense?

100%. If this is the only trial which may be the case before the election, this is absolutely not the one that you would have wanted if you were the Biden campaign. And why do you think, Bragg, as a New Yorker, I mean, Trump contends that

At the same time that Biden is a senile imbecile who can't tie his own shoes, but on the side is masterminding a nationwide plot against him and involving local and federal prosecutors. But why did Bragg bring the suit in the first bring the the charges in the first place? I mean, it's a really good question. His predecessor did looked at a similar set of facts and did not bring the case. Yeah.

I, I, I can't say that I, uh, that I understand the thinking all that well. Um, I assume that he thought that on the facts and the law that he had a case and could prosecute it successfully, I think. Or did he think that if he didn't bring the case that he would be attacked politically? Maybe. I, you know, I think the truth is that New York City has got

a lot of challenges at the moment around crime and quality of life and disorder. And so I would have actually preferred our district attorney to be focused somewhat more on that and less on this case, but he didn't ask my advice.

Listen, Murphy, I mean, I don't think anybody—the weird thing about this is, does anybody really doubt, unless they're like hardcore Trump people, that he actually did the things that he's being accused of? That he had an assignation with a porn star, Stormy Daniels, and then tried to cover it up? I don't think anybody—

doubts that. The question is, does it matter to people? I know people say, well, he tampered with the election. Yeah, no, I think people think, oh, he's totally guilty of being an asshole, but he's an asshole who can run the economy. And unfortunately, that's more the prism they're making their presidential decision on. Not that either one of these characters is that

that popular. And I'm with Howard. It is the, if Trump were to plan how to endure all his legal problems, this would be the sequencing he'd want. He gets a venue he can campaign against that his voters are suspicious of. He gets kind of an engineered carom shot legal case against him when the real bad stuff is out there and this undermines all that. So yeah, it, um,

It's not a political masterstroke here, which does to the highly intelligent, thoughtful, nuanced voter. In other words, our audience, small but elite. It is ironic. We won't end it all right now, but we can. For a political setup, it's pretty inept. That said, ultimately, all this trial stuff, because we're not going to get to the real juicy ones most likely.

You know, half the country wants Trump in jail without a trial. And the other half wonders why Hunter Biden or Hillary or name a Democrat aren't in jail. So it just doesn't have...

the grip in our modern tribal death match politics that it would have been an H-bomb, you know, two decades ago. But we're not in that era anymore. Yeah, which is unfortunate because it suggests that if you flood the zone with bad behavior, you can get away with it. And that's sort of where we are. Because the things you call juicy are fundamentally that they sort of go to the heart of democracy. If a guy plots to overturn...

an election and does the things that Trump did, the fact that he's not going to stand trial for it before he runs again in an election in which he also promises or also refused to promise that to accept the results. Right. But we used to have a political guardrail system based on shame where you didn't have to be dragged into trial. If you just publicly said stuff, if you publicly had had January 6th, it would automatically put you in the injector seat out of national life.

And that's that is not the world we're in right now. Certainly one of his achievements is blowing up those guardrails. Howard Murphy says, I think correctly, that Trump has so far effectively helped make this race all about Biden and not about himself, although.

I think he rarely objects to being the center of attention. But why do you, if you're over, you're a good strategist, you're a master strategist, you're over there, what would you, how do you turn that around at this juncture? It's getting late. It's late. It's late and I'm worried. Yeah.

In fairness, you're a worrier so that we should stipulate that you're a brooder. But anyway, I don't think you're unwarranted here. Go ahead. The challenge, and I think for Biden, is that things that the electorate does not like about him are things that they see every day in real time with their own eyes, which is to say he looks old to them. And when they go into the store and buy something, the prices seem too high.

So they are well aware of the things that they don't like about Joe Biden and his policies, and they're kind of staring the voters in the face every day.

And the things that they didn't like about Donald Trump, they don't really remember. And that's unfortunate. The Biden theory is that they will remember those things once people focus on the campaign. Yeah, they will after they fire Biden. You know what? Time is a-wasting. The Biden campaign tried to run positive ads on his record, tried to talk about Bidenomics. That was not particularly successful. I think the...

emphasis on Trump and the things that people did not like about him, the work of reminding them should have begun many months ago. And the fact that it has not occurred yet is very concerning. So, you know, I'd like to sugarcoat it, but I think...

The stakes are immense and the challenges are great. Yeah. One of the problems, Murphy, is that in answer to the concerns about age, the campaign is trying to get him out more and more visible and more, you know, in more energetic scenes. But that is a double edged sword, isn't it? I mean, I think they have to do it, but he goes out there and it kind of

accentuates the thing that Howard's talking about. Well, yeah, that's the problem with everybody having the very simple moniker of he's too damn old. It's like having antlers. You go out and say, hey, I've cured cancer, and everybody says, what about those antlers? You can't make it go away. But look, I am...

I'm for a lot of stuff they ought to be doing. I think part of the problem, and we've talked about this a million times, I've been pounding on it for a year. You have too. You know, it's the chip in Biden's head. He wants to grab people by the lapels and say everything's going great.

You don't understand the facts, man, and straighten them out. And we know that when the 82-year-old bald fat guy walks into the Chevy dealership and says, I'd like a Corvette, the salesman job is not to say you're wrong. You really ought to get a nice square old guy car. You say, excellent, sir. I have a red one right here. You look great in it.

And Biden's telling the customer they're wrong. I just want to say for my own sake that there's nothing wrong with old fat guys, but go ahead. Yeah, no, no. I've been working undercover in that precinct for a long time. But so anyway, he's telling the customer they're wrong. And, you know, I've got a lot of critiques of the campaign, but I think Biden's got a firm grip on what he'll do and what he won't. One thing I as a Murphy, I know something about is grumpy old Irish guys. And

And Biden's one of them. And they're hard to change. Remember, Biden's not a guy who came up winning a swing state all the time. Mr. Campaign is an inside guy. So they're in a tricky thing. You're right. And Howard makes the right point. You only have two resources in a campaign, money and time. And they're spending time like drunken sailors without a lot of impact. And, you know, I mean, we're talking about the debate, but they're clearly trying to make a big change up.

move, which I think I love the offense, but boy, oh boy, the risk is big too. Howard, this issue of how he communicates, you know, you point out the binomics thing, Mike points out that point. This is an issue and how, I guess what I'm asking is, you've done a good job of analyzing the problem. How do you get on offense and what kind of

What kind of contrast do you set? Because I kind of believe that people, as Mike said earlier, it's baked in the cake. Trump's an asshole. He misbehaves. He's...

All that stuff. People accept that, but they think he's strong and they think he's capable. And they're sort of forgetting if the economy is their concern. What exactly? The economy was good. They remember we handed him a pretty good deal when he came in and it remained good until the pandemic that he mishandled.

But his major achievement was this gargantuan tax cut that was highly unpopular and remained so. He's got a whole bunch of plans that would make inflation worse. He wants to scrap the Affordable Care Act, which people really like.

And health care is a big issue. He wants to repeal the law that, you know, is lowering prescription drug costs for millions of Americans. Seems to me like there are contrasts to be struck that actually go to the things that people care about right now. I would tally up what you just said and then I would add.

Of course.

I think there's a strong case to be made around the contrast, but I don't see that case necessarily being made. And, you know, they do. They've had a money advantage. And you'd think that that money advantage would be used. And they are running ads. They ran, I thought, a decent ad on the Affordable Care Act. I think it was more about Biden than

Trump, and it should have been more about Trump. But they've run it in the States. They spent a lot of money, I guess, running it. Now, there's this story this morning about the fact that Trump is, at least in March, overtook

in terms of fundraising. I thought that was an ominous story. Biden still has a massive fundraising lead. I mean, a cash-on-hand lead. But in some ways, what this suggests to me is that small-dollar donors

small dollar donations have slowed down. And that, to me, is a kind of ominous development. Well, there's not exactly an enthusiasm surge for Joe Biden. You know, you can feel it everywhere. That's my point. Low dollar fundraising is a good indicator.

I also don't think that Joe Biden's going to win because he had a $40 million cash advantage over Donald Trump. Really? I mean, that's the kind of free media that Donald Trump can make up in a day. My uncle Buzz from Macomb County was just calling me. You know, I'm studying the FEC reports here in Michigan. Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

First of all, my point was that it is sort of a surrogate for enthusiasm. And if his money's slowing down, that's concerning. But the second point is we're all message guys here. But if there were field guys here, what they would say is if you've got marginal races in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the ability to marshal organization on the ground is important. It actually is the field goal team, and that's

ultimately how you score. As message guides, we'd say, excellent, go back to your shoebox full of 3x5 cards with names on them, because if you don't have a message, you can't organize under it. Well, that is absolutely true. And I mean, I think that's the fundamental thing that we're talking about here, which is

I don't think anybody could tell you right now what the Biden message is. And messages are not... Get off my lawn. That's the best I got. Well, there is that. But messages are not an amalgam of issues.

Messages are larger. Messages are narrative. And we don't know. It's not clear what the Biden narrative is right now. And that's where the time elapsing is really concerning. You guys can straighten me out, but I don't know why this is so hard. I've tried for like three years and nothing's worked. No, you've tried for decades. Yes.

why aren't they just doing, this is a war for the middle class. I'm on your side. Trump isn't. You want your insulin? You want your kids to live in a democracy? You know, bingo, bingo, bingo, simple, stark choice about middle-class economics and motive. And answer to that question is that one of the strengths of populists like Trump is that they do a very good job of convincing people

the middle class, that they are on their side. So unlike a Romney, who I think highly of, but was essentially a plutocrat and acted like one and talked like one and defaulted into plutocracy when confronted. God, that's why I loved him. But yes, I agree with this. Murphy's an aspiring plutocrat. Indeed. The populace that we see, not just in the United States, but in other parts of the world,

do a very good job of disguising the fact that they are not actually on the side of the middle class. And so Trump's brand is, you know, fight him. And there are lots of working class Americans who think that he is on their side. And so the challenge of convincing them

otherwise is greater than it would be if we were running against Mitt Romney. Yeah, no, this is very true. And the Republican method is to make the schism not economics, but culture. Yeah. Yeah. And because the Democrats are in the insufferable woke business all too often, it just rings the perfect bell to let the Trump populace of the world go with kind of the damn right issues. Okay.

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You said, Mike, that Biden's never had until he got to the presidential races. He's never actually been in a really competitive situation because of the nature of Delaware politics and so on. He won up with general election voters. He ousted with general election voters. He ousted a an incumbent Republican in his first race and didn't really have that much trouble after. But senators have a particular and Howard knows this because he worked with them.

They have a particular orientation towards campaigns. And Senate races often are just about issues because people aren't paying that much attention. You run the ad on Medicare and Social Security. And you're running as an advocate. You know, I'm going to go fight for X on the floor rather than I'm going to run the state as a governor or president or whatever. But these races are tactical in many ways. Presidential races, you can't win just as a tactical race.

And so there needs to be a narrative. I think you can tuck the populism into a narrative about what kind of future. I mean, I've said it here before. This other guy's consumed by himself and his past. I'm fighting for you and your future. What kind of future do you want? And then the subset of those things is all the issues that Howard mentioned.

It's challenging to be the candidate of the future when you're 82 is one of the problems. Yeah. And part of the problem is the Repubs have gotten it down when they're not tripping over their own clown shoes, you know, worried about science or space lasers.

They've gotten down to the Democratic brand is not on your middle class side. Defund the police. You know, you can go down kind of all those cultural schisms. And though Biden has been fairly adroit at trying to distance himself from that stuff, it's still out there and it affects him.

And because he's not a big, bright lantern of what Joe Biden is for. It's more Joe Biden doing what every Senate in particular incumbent wants to do. We've all been there. Well, here's the first spot. I've written it myself. Don't know why I need you. Listen, idiots, you owe me your vote. Here's what I've done for you. And then a four hour list.

of minor accomplishments. And that's the thing they got to break. Now, they have a plan to break it. We probably ought to talk about this, and then we can wind around to the depressing world of the Middle East. You know, I see a pattern here. But I know where you're going. But before you do, you mentioned police. The border stuff, I think, continues to churn. Schumer's putting that bill that Biden had agreed to with Lankford that was a tough, tough border bill

Lankford being the Republican senator from Oklahoma. And Trump killed that because he wanted the issue. They're putting it back on the Senate floor next week. It will fail. But they want to do it primarily to give their incumbent Democrats a chance to vote.

But it does raise the question, why are we still waiting for Biden to do something on his own that is viewed as meaningful and dramatic about the border, Howard? They keep leaking these stories to The New York Times that

suggests that he's, you know, just on the verge of putting the border on, you know, double secret probation and then it never happens. And it's a real problem. I mean, the deal that he agreed to with Langford is a deal that he could have presumably gotten two or three years ago, chose not to. And it's kind of too late. It's clearly too late for a bipartisan deal.

The question is whether or not there are unilateral steps that he could take. Well, I think he should do it. I mean, he should try. He should get caught trying for sure. Absolutely. But you know what happens? He leaks those stories to the New York Times and then all the New York Times readers protest because they're concerned about that he's going to be too harsh. And then they contemplate it some more, which I think is a mistake. They will see harsh when Donald Trump.

Gets control of the border. No, no, it's a good point. And, you know, they, I don't get it.

The president sees a big microphone for that kind of stuff. I mean, look, I'm still mad about when he went to the border. A low-ranking intern in Deaver's old shop in the Reagan White House would have said, hey, the old guy can't walk. Put him in a Jeep with two guys with machine guns and put on his MacArthur glasses and let him look tough. And they couldn't even do that. Instead, they had him shuffling like the Denny's parking lot at 501. Go down there within a day or two of when Trump killed the bill and say you're going to take the bill and put it

in the form of an executive order,

And then, you know, offense, offense, offense. So so anyway, to where we are now, I see the pattern. New York Times does a swing state poll is terrifying. There's a big panic. Biden rolls out to the State of the Union. He actually exceeds low expectations. They give him the magic vitamin shot. I don't know. Maybe Dr. Landry's around somewhere. But but anyway, Biden does well, you know, relatively speaking, everybody calms down. They're back in business for a little while. They don't really pick up the momentum and do anything with it.

Now, yet again, another New York Times poll of the swing states equally even more terrifying because it shows three of them kind of spinning out of control. The six, the Sunbelt ones looking particularly dim. And so I guess they had the meeting and said, well, we got to do our playbook again. Let's blow this race wide open with the debate. Now, I like the offense.

But if good Biden shows up, a la State of the Union, and they win the little sub-debate about whose microphone is turned on and off when who's speaking, which is a clever little thing that as of now looks like it's still part of the deal, we'll see, Biden could get a reset and have a moment to grab everything, and hopefully they got a plan to roll it out. The problem is, in exchange for that potential badly needed rocket fuel,

There's also a risk that Biden is awful, has a bad night, starts rambling on about, no, write this down. Best economy in five years and goes into kind of cranky Jomo. I think he says 50, but yeah. Well, I know it's the eighth best Thanksgiving in a leap year. I'm still remembering that one or

Bidenomics, we can thank Biden. You know, by the way, when I'm selling crap burgers, I don't say we got to change the name to Murphy Burger. So everybody knows crap equals Murphy. But anyway, now there goes one of our ads. But go ahead. So bottom line is Biden's either going to get a great restart here or the biggest panic in the history of the Democratic Party and people openly, I think, start saying about step aside, Joe, it's pre-convention.

I know it's never happened. It's really hard to do. But against Trump, the end of the world, don't underestimate how bad the panic can be. So I'm glad they made the move, but I sure hope they're ready to exploit it. And I'd have low confidence. Howard, I've prepared or been part of the team, I should say, that helped prepare a president, an incumbent president for debates. And I had circled in red...

the first debate, because the history of incumbent presidents in first debates is pretty dismal, because those presidents haven't had anybody in their grill for a long time. And now they do. And now their impulse is to defend every aspect of their records, which Biden is prone to do anyway. If you're sitting there preparing him, what are your messages to him about this debate?

I mean, I agree with Mike that the stakes couldn't be higher. It's the kind of thing that you do when you are behind and not ahead, because when you're behind, you have to take risks. But the downside of taking risks is that if it goes badly, you're even in a bigger hole than when you began. And so I don't envy the folks in that area.

debate prep process. Look, David, you have some of your former colleagues are quick to accuse those of us who are concerned about all this of quote-unquote bedwetting. And let me be clear, I'm wet in the bed every night. I mean, I am

Sorry for your wife, but... Yeah, I'm changing those sheets every morning. I'm wearing rubber underwear here, Mr. President. I want to be clear that there is significant cause for concern and...

Those of us who identify those concerns are growing in number and in voice. The pearls need to be clutched. Indeed. Murphy made a couple of points that I think are important. One is, one thing that Trump and the Republican Party has done for five years that redound to Biden's benefit here is that if the guy makes it to the microphone and puts any coherent

sentences together, he will have exceeded the expectations that they have set for him. Now, I don't think that's enough because those sentences have to, as you guys pointed out earlier, they have to frame an offense and a message, and he has to take it to Trump.

Uh, you know, and I think people are going to be looking for that, uh, that not, not just the messaging, but the energy, uh, of that. Uh, but what are you telling them? Energy would be important. I mean, that's a, maybe a low bar, but you've got to come in energetically and engaged. Look, this is part of the challenge, which is everybody.

someone who is 82 years old and everyone understands the challenges that age can mean for our parents or grandparents. And, you know, they will be watching very carefully just to see whether or not they think he's up to the job from an age and energy perspective. Yeah. And he's going to have to demonstrate that he is. Yeah.

I mean, that's again, maybe that's a fairly low bar. I want to point out, Murphy, that the Rolling Stones are touring again now. I think they're all the surviving members are over 80. Yeah, I know. I know. And Mick Jagger is a friend of mine, David. But Joe Biden, you're no Mick Jagger. You make a it's a good comparison because you look at Mick Jagger and you say, boy, there's a there's a guy who's 80 and he acts like he's 65.

Yes.

Especially when all Trump has to do is remember what you were paying for lettuce. It's unbelievable. It's the worst it's ever been. Just harp on simple stuff, which Trump is good at. You know, we've done a lot of harping on Biden here. Let's also acknowledge that there are risks for Trump as well. He didn't particularly help himself in his first debate last time. Now it turns out he was going through COVID and God knows was on what.

But nonetheless, part of the theory of the Biden case is let the country in a very intensive way see him. Yeah, see him and hear him because he's saying some batshit crazy stuff out there. Yeah, no, no. They're both. Again, this is the Republicans have nominated the one candidate Joe Biden can beat and the Dems have nominated the one candidate Trump might be able to beat. So this thing is going to be crazy.

is going to be something. But my dark Irish outlook, I'm most fascinated academically because I'm, you know, I'm hoping Biden does great. I can't abide the idea of Trump in the Oval Office, even though I'm a conservative and have my issues with Biden. What happens if Biden really whiffs? It's going to make the panic over the polls look like amateur night. Yeah, Howard, what about that? Do you think that at this point, if he does,

And I'm betting that he will rise to the occasion. He will outperform expectations because that's generally what he does. But what if he does whiff? It is two months before the convention. Do you think you being now a member of the Bedwetters of America?

President. There will be. I don't know, man, that's a fierce competition. International chairman. But we're with you. We'll run your campaign. But do you think that he, do you think there will be a hue and cry?

At that point, that an open hue and cry. I kind of think people have sort of not to extend the metaphor made their bed here. I don't. I think there will be a hue and a cry. Yeah, I think open calls step aside, Joe. Yo to the country. And they'd be right, by the way, if he whiffs this debate. Stakes are too high for sentimentality in the, you know.

indulgence. The problem is then it's Kamala. That's the one problem. So you get rid of Biden, you get another problem. I'm not sure if it would go that way, but... Well, that would be the argument. We need a restart. But it does speak to how messy that would be, you know? And I kind of, you know, in a way, I think one of the reasons they wanted this debate, not in a way, I know, one of the reasons they wanted this debate is there's still...

there are still people out there who don't believe this is going to be the choice, that somehow we're going to end up with different candidates. And I think the Biden folks wanted this debate early because they want people to focus on the fact that, no, folks, this is the choice. Well, the problem is that may focus them on, we got to do something. It might. Pre-convention. But look, I would have done it because I think they're in a corner and they're losing. And

And whatever, they've got to shake it up. So they got to roll the big dice. But boy, oh boy, they're very big dice here. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

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So Biden was at Morehouse College on Sunday giving the commencement speech. We got, I think, a little clip of it here. Black police officers, black veterans protecting the Capitol were called another word, as you recall. They also say out loud these other groups, immigrants poison the blood of our country, like the grand wizard and fascist said in the past. But you know, and I know that

We all bleed the same color. In America, we're all created equal. Extremists close the doors of opportunity, strike down affirmative action, attack the values of diversity, equality, and inclusion. I never thought when I was graduating in 1968, as Your Honor, he just was, we talked about, I never thought I'd be in a president time when there's a national effort to ban books, not to write history, but to erase history.

Mike, every single poll, including that New York Times set, and then, you know, there are some polls over time that have reflected this. He does have a problem. He has a problem with young people. He has a problem with younger African-Americans and Hispanic voters. I saw one poll that suggested, you know, black men under 29, you know, inching up to 34%

Trump, I don't know that that's going to materialize, but...

It certainly doesn't suggest that they're working their way toward Biden. Yeah, you don't want to be an incumbent Democratic president having to fight like hell for the black vote, you know, going into the summer before your election. That said, if you don't believe in some revert to mean here, which is the most likely, if not certain case, then Biden's toast and fundamentally gone. He's going to lose. Not a lot they can do. So I think with some of the attention being paid here,

I'm more optimistic about that vote getting back where it needs to be, although probably a little under what normal is, which is yet another problem. I mean, my biggest worry is

tactically in this area is not that Biden, and it was an excellent speech above Joe Biden average, but it's pure defense. This is firefighting, which is not where you want to be. But my big worry is the Repubs have been watching how the Dems have elevated, and I think this is very dangerous stuff. It's politically effective, but boy, you're playing with nerve gas, elevating not Republicans with their money in primaries.

Well, now there's nothing to stop the Trump campaign from paying that back by putting a million into Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Phoenix, even behind Cornel West and to try to try to elevate candidacies that pull votes off Biden in that vote, which is a black vote. Is Cornel West even on those ballots? I'm not sure. I think more likely they they'll try and throw them on to.

Bobby Kennedy Jr. Well, both. But look, if I were the Trump guys, and I don't want to give him advice because I don't want to win, but would I go spend a million bucks on the street in Detroit doing a write-in for a Cornell thing to shave Wayne County by 30,000 votes? Damn right I wouldn't. I'd try it in Georgia and Philly, too. Because if Cornell gets attention, he can sell some tickets.

So anyway, this is yet another problem, another manifestation of the global Biden problem. He's fighting fire in his own barn when he ought to be on offense. And, you know, they have to do it. Tactically, it was good, but it's an indicator of people want to fire the incumbent president. And that is a hard stranglehold to get out of. Howard, that speech at Morehouse, there weren't great protests, as was feared, but there also was sort of a tepid response from

to it. Part of the reason was continued protests about Israel and Gaza and Biden's support for Israel. He's kind of getting it on both ends.

here by, I think, being responsible, pushing the Israelis to be more surgical in their approach, while at the same time making sure that they can defend themselves. This is a mess. It's a nuanced situation in an environment that doesn't really embrace nuance. Well, you know, Joe Biden was having problems with non-college educated men of color prior to

But I'm talking about young people as well. I'm not just talking about them. I agree with you, but I'm talking about the larger problem. Yeah. I mean, this was not something that anybody anticipated. It was obviously not anything that the Israelis anticipated. And its impact on our politics has been significant. And you're very right that he has alienated

both Arab American voters and some Jewish voters in ways that are very unhelpful. It is interesting. I went to Israel about a month ago with former Mayor Bloomberg. We were there for a day, and we had a series of meetings with Israelis from across the political spectrum, people both from on the right and the left,

And to a person, they only had praise for Joe Biden and his administration in the way that he had supported Trump.

the Israeli people in this time of need. And it was a very interesting corrective to some of what you hear on the Jewish right in this country where somehow Biden has become an enemy of the Jewish people. That is not what people in Israel think. And so the folks with the most skin in the game thought that he was doing a pretty good job

for them. Uh, and that was a, that was a very meaningful thing to hear on our trip. I do. I do think it was a stumble cutting off the arms. I was at a DMFI Democrat majority for Israel event last night, helping them raise a little money to beat kooks and democratic primaries. Uh, and you know, got an earful about that. And I understand the big picture and everything, but it was a stumble because it brought him no love with the I heart, you know, um,

Hamas campus crowd and put a bad shockwave, I think, to his own supporters in the Stand with Israel community. Now they're trying to clean it up, and I think they're doing a pretty good job. But it was, in my view, a stumble. Well, for one thing, they shot down 300 missiles. They're continuing. I mean, the fact is that they had been speaking privately for months with Netanyahu about how he was going to approach this

And they—and he flouted them. He ignored them. And so, you know, and they were—they're—the withholding of those—

temporary withholding of those weapons were a private communication between them and the Israelis. The Israelis leaked it to put pressure on Biden. You know, you're dealing with a guy in Netanyahu who has his own political agenda, and that makes this more difficult. He has no particular impetus to end this war quickly.

He knows that he's going to be subject to an inquiry after this war that's going to uncover the fact that they were woefully unprepared. And he's supposed to be the national security hawk, but was so distracted by his own domestic political needs that he neglected to take care of business.

And, you know, has backhandedly helped Hamas over the years because he didn't want the Palestinian Authority to be – I mean, there are a lot of – and, you know, obviously he's in the Trump position where if he loses, he has legal jeopardy from cases that are now forestalled because he's prime minister. That's the guy you're dealing with. It makes it very, very hard. I don't – and the last thing I'm going to say about this, Murphy, is –

And I've said it before. I'm the son of a Jewish refugee. I care deeply about Israel. I was horrified and devastated by what happened on October 7th. I believe the Israelis have every right to defend themselves and to go after the people who are responsible for that. Having said all that, I think it's still...

I don't begrudge those who shed tears for the starving children of Gaza because I do. Yeah, I think we all do. And I think Biden does too. And so to just ascribe everything to a kind of political chess game that he's playing, I think is unfair to him. No, I'm just calling the hack scorecard here. It was a bungle politically. Okay. That's what we do here. I have my own feelings about all this, but it's...

This isn't conscience on tap here? Being a good Catholic boy, we'll do a special episode at the end of the year of our atonement. That will be a 30-second podcast. We'll keep it under a minute. You know, I talk to candidates and staff across the country in these battleground states, people running for Senate and down-ballot offices, and one of the things that was alarming about that Times poll—

We haven't talked, Murphy, since I think it came out. Yeah, the delta between the Senate cats and Biden. You know, that can break either way. You can say, well, Biden has room to improve. The generic vote for these senators is better than Biden. Or...

And this is what I believe is that it's an anchor around their neck. It'll be pulling them down in the end, not the other way around. But it's a real thing. Well, one of the things that they say is that they're very wary of appearing with him. Now, look, in 2010, in the midterms, I remember how people tried to stay away from Obama in that midterm, but less so in the real act.

I was going to say, the problem is it's not the equivalent of 2010. It's the equivalent of 2012. No, I understand. I understand. So this is – you know, these guys who are running – mostly guys. There's Tammy Baldwin also and Jackie Rosen. But the people who are running in these tough races are –

They're cautious about how much they want to be seen with him. Now they will deny it having me. They're wearing Howard Wolfson-approved rubber underwear. If I were a Democratic senator on the ballot in a swing state with Biden, I would have the triple ply.

on because I'm already going to I'm going to begin marketing bedwetters for Biden. Yeah, no, no, I can send you a pricks for Biden, but that someone sent me I'm going to do the it's OK to clutch a damn pearl bumper sticker, I think. I mean, you know, democracy, the future, the future of democracy is at stake. So he never should have run. But you're not concerned now. When when will you get?

No, I agree. I agree. And this is the most frustrating thing about it, because this is not like they screw up the election and, you know, God forbid Mitt Romney wins, which I'd be, of course, totally for. This is this is existential stakes. So we can't take a well, we're try harder tomorrow attitude about it. It's big. Guys, listen, I'm going to be in the RV to Alberta with you.

if this thing goes the wrong way. But having said that, this is the race. And it's actually, you know, the tenor of this conversation is dark. You know, you look at these battleground states and this is a winnable race still. And, you know, the question is, does Biden have the wherewithal to go and his team to do the things that need to be done to win it? And we'll see. We're going to be talking about that for the next

five and a half months. But right now... The scary thing is we've been talking about it for a year, waiting for the cavalry, and I've yet to smell any horses. Well, if they'd listen to the damn podcast... I know! What the hell? To make the audience feel a little better about my

ability to prognosticate. I think it's fair to say that nobody has worked on more losing presidential campaigns than I have. So you can take a lot of what I say with a grain of salt in that context. Well, yeah, but you're also a canary who's seen a few coal mines collapse. Well, maybe we should have asked you, what wouldn't you do here, Howard? Exactly. The George Costanis of presidential politics. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

Hey, America and hackaroos, if you love Hacks on Tap, you got to check out my brainiac friend, Ambassador Frank Lavin's wonderful podcast. Talks politics, talks everything. This guy worked in the Reagan White House on politics and around the world. You'll get smarter in 20 minutes with my friend Frank Lavin's incredible podcast, books and insight. I never, ever miss it. We should give our listeners a say here and fire up the old mailbag. Listener mail.

OK, if you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do is send it to us at our groovy email address, hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. Or there's a lonely rotary phone in the back of some Chicago betting parlor slash Democrat Cook County organization where you can not only leave a message for a question, you can instantly be registered to vote for the rest of your life. I can't remember the number, so we recorded it.

773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. Okay, before we get to the questions, Howard Wilson is a very important man. He can't be screwing around with podcasts for too long. He's got to run off to save New York City and other things. So, Howard, thank you so much for joining us today. It's a pleasure to be with you and feel so optimistic at the

conclusion of our conversation. Well, listen, I'm looking forward to your diaper stand at the Democratic National Convention. Yes, we'll stop by. Maybe we'll broadcast from there. I'll be selling gas masks. I have a bigger margin. See you, Howard. Thank you so much. All right, Captain Sunshine. Thank you. Bye. Murphy Adrian has taken the time to leave a thoughtful message right on our voicemail, and I think it's for you.

Hey, this is Adrian calling from Chicago's River North neighborhood. I want to know why it's not a bigger story in the media that Donald Trump is consistently losing about a fifth of the Republican primary vote months after Nikki Haley dropped out, most recently in Maryland, which is a closed primary. Seems like if Joe Biden was losing this much vote in his primary, it would be a much bigger story. Thanks, everyone.

Hey, Adrian, great question. Yes, the ghost of Nikki Haley is doing some numbers. I was looking at some Michigan stuff because that's one of the really key states and mild stomping ground. And in West Michigan, Canton, Ottawa, she's doing over 30 percent of the vote and she's not even in the race in the primary. Now, look, some of it is Democrats in the open primaries crossing over to like get to vote against Trump twice, once in the Republican primary, once for Biden.

But there are plenty of Republican areas. Indiana was a good example. Marion, she did a responsible, I think, over 25 percent or 24, 25 percent of the vote there. That's Indianapolis in the suburbs. It is a tell of Trump weakness. On the other hand, a Republican or an independent protest vote against Trump in the primaries by voting for Haley, even though she's not in the race, is not the same as a vote for Joe Biden. Some will go back. But it shows there's some vote in play.

and it shows Trump has weaknesses. So it is a hopeful sign, but I don't think it's been totally exploited yet by the Biden campaign. But it's something they ought to spend a lot of time thinking about and working on because those voters are literally scratching and clawing to try to find something other to do, at least in the primary, than vote for Donald J. Trump. And let me just add a quick

I'd see Adam asked about the West Wing and Stephen Root's character, Arnold Binnick's political guy. People tell me that all the time. Yes. Who knows? Adam said, I just rewatched the West Wing and am convinced—

The political advisor to Senator Arnold Vinnick, who was running for president in that show, played by actor Stephen Root, is a carbon copy of Mike Murphy. Am I crazy? I can't answer the last part of your question, but I will tell you that there is a sort of startling resemblance between Stephen Root and Mike Murphy. Did you consult on that, Murphy? Yeah.

You know, OK, quick, true self-indulgent story. During the last years ago, the Democratic Convention, this is a true story. A CNN camera crew was rolling down Manhattan covering the convention, and they saw this guy, a shaggy guy walking in a jacket with blonde hair. And they pulled over and interviewed him, asking that Mike Murphy what he thought. And finally, he said, who the F is Mike Murphy? I'm an actor. And he said, I'm an actor.

And it was Philip Seymour Hoffman. Oh, yeah. You do look a little like him. Yeah, I used to back back in the day. Great actor, genius actor. So is Stephen Root, one of the great character actors. I don't know. I will say that in For All Mankind, the alternative history series on Apple on their website, they do a fake history news thing and they put my face up there. Somebody in the writer's room having some fun.

quoting me about a fictional candidate. So, yeah, I haunt you in pop culture. But I've heard that a lot. And I've got to ask one of the West Wing writers if it's true. Lawrence O'Donnell might have been involved in that subterfuge of that character, because I think he invented the whole Arnold Vinnick thing when he wrote on that show. You mentioned CNN, and I was remiss when we were discussing the debate.

As a CNNer, I'm excited that CNN has that debate, and I'm looking forward to Jake Tapper and Dana Bash moderating that debate. They're going to have their hands full, but I think they're up to it. Jake's pretty strong, and so is she. Yeah, so it's going to be an interesting night. So you've got one for me, I think. Okay, we're going with the double voicemail this time because people are using the secret number. This is for David, and it is from Jim. Hey.

Hey, Hacks, Jim from Minnesota. What do you think about the idea of Biden opening an account on Truth Social? He can needle Trump on his own platform. Trump would probably get Biden kicked off in no time, but then Biden can say he's too scared to let Biden tell the truth. Is there any downside to Biden for trying this? Thanks. Love your show. Thanks, man. I love your mischievous mind. That's such a...

clever little play. It would be a really, I think, classy and beneficent thing to do, given the fact that Truth Social is crashing and burning. I think they lost some vast sum of money, I read the other day. So maybe it would show a good spirit to Biden to say, I want to join in and help you out. But seriously, it'd be interesting to see. I think he'd feel a little out of place there because he doesn't

tweet in caps and all of that. But no triple exclamation point. That sounds like a Murphy type maneuver. I love it, Jim. Put on some chain mail and I'll buy your ticket to Biden headquarters. You ought to show up there tomorrow and go to work. They could need more of that thinking. And by the way, they do it with Biden. They throw Biden off. Then the next day, Kamala does it.

And then the next day and they all have a turn and, you know, drive Trump stone cold crazy, which he already is. But I think it's a great idea. And more tactical stuff like that to needle Trump is a really good idea. So you have a future in politics, Jim. Good idea. Hey, we've been so bad at questions. We're going to do a little catch up session here because Howard had to ankle us, as we say in Hollywood, for real work.

So, David, here's one for you, and I'll chime in. It's from Linda. Linda wants to know, I would like an explanation of how polling is done in an age of no landlines and with cell phone screening of calls. I only answer calls when I know the caller number. The current polls saying Trump is up by 12 in Nevada and several other important states. That makes me very, all caps, skeptical of these results. Can you explain the methodology and the reliability of these polls?

Great question. Yeah, I mean, one of the questions, I mean, what you hear a lot from Biden himself, who should never be talking about polls, is that the polls have been a little bit off base in the last couple of years. And I don't want to get into the weeds on that. But you talk to any good pollster, I mean, really good pollster, and they will tell you that a competent and...

credible poll is a multimodal poll where they use many, several different sources of getting people to participate. Some on cell phones, a small number on landlines, some text, some are contacted by text and respond to a text. And

context, but a lot of thought has gone into how you reach a wide range of people in this environment. The problem with that is it's very expensive. And so, you know, the campaigns can do it. A lot of news organizations don't. Some use these panels that have, you know, questions where they go back and talk to people. There are

There are healthy debates about those. Some relied too heavily on, you know, cell phones alone. So, you know, the quality of polling can vary greatly. But if you're doing it right, you're doing it multimodal and you're spending a lot of money doing it. The Wall Street Journal, I think, does that.

but they do four polls a year for that reason. Yeah, no, no. You know, in open-heart surgery and polling, you don't want the low bid, and sometimes the media goes that way. Basically, polling, the magic of polling science, statistical science, relies on a

real random sample of the universe you want to know the opinion of. So you can go door to door, too expensive. Nobody does it anymore. You can call people up. As you said, landline cell phones are hard. You can text them where they hit a link and then go to an online survey. That works pretty well and is used a lot. And then finally, you can buy a panel of voters who take a $20 bill every month to agree to take two polls.

So multimodal, and David's totally right, is a combination of all those things with a heavy reliance on texting, 'cause people will look at a text

clicking through. But I was talking to a pollster the other day, the great Dr. David Hill, who's also the rock concert promoter who first brought the Rolling Stones to Alabama, which I think is the greatest political double credit in our business. Anyway, he was saying he did something in Florida the other day. They had to do about 100, I think it was 160 contacts to get one interview.

So the pollsters are struggling with this, too. And the way around it is to try a lot of ways to get to that sample. And they know the sample is legit because they compare the demography of the people they interviewed with what we know from census track and voter file data about who's out there to line it up. So it's a good model. So good pollsters know how to do it, but it ain't cheap. And sometimes now it takes a little longer to complete a poll because it's so hard to field the

the questionnaire. So great, great question, Linda. I'll ask you a question from Richard, who asks, if Trump picks a senator as his VP and goes on to win the election, which Senate seat would be the best pickup opportunity for Dems? Florida, Rubio, South Carolina, Scott, or Ohio?

Vance. None are easy. Florida, probably the best. So the Florida Democrats are great at losing statewide elections. South Carolina is hopeless. Ohio would be tough. Part of it's the bench where Demstar might be, but I'd probably say Florida, all of them would, all these states would be

tough for the Dees, but Florida not impossible, I think. What do you think, David? I'm debating between Florida and Ohio. And, you know, we'll see. I mean, we've seen registration in Florida go from a big advantage to 200,000 vote advantage for Democrats to an 800,000 vote advantage for Republicans. And so it's turned it into a very tough state. I know

Some talk about it as a swing state in the presidential race because of the abortion issue, and that could make it closer. But, you know, I don't know in a Senate race. I just don't know. I guess I would go that way. The other would be Ohio because they still have a Democratic senator at least through November. We'll see if Sherrod Brown, who's an excellent politician, can hang on there. But it has shifted quite a bit, too. These are three states.

pretty red states right now. So, but I'll throw in with you. You're a Florida guy. It's close. It's really a coin talk. Part of it's candidate quality. And I don't really know the Democratic bench in either place that well now. So don't pin your hopes on it. Finally, a quick plug, a lot going on in EV world. So check out evpolitics.org. It's in the middle of the presidential election and we're doing a lot of cool stuff. Wait, I have a plug too, which is the Hacks Book Club, which we haven't done in a while. I just, uh,

read a great new book. Actually, two. One is Say More by Jen Psaki, which is a great advice to communicators from lessons she's learned, also life lessons. And then another great book is The Situation Room by

by George Stephanopoulos. And Murphy, you've got to read this book. I've heard it's good. Yeah, I've got to check that out. I've heard they're both good. I had a conversation with George at the Chicago Humanities Festival that I'm going to release as a podcast on Thursday on The Axe Files. But it is so good. If you love history and you're interested in the presidency and how presidents behave under crisis, this is a must-read book.

Finally, there's a new Hollywood salacious tell-all out. Well, not really, but it's – I haven't read it yet, but I think it's going to be great. I just listened to him on a pod. Daniel Stern, a wonderful character actor and a very interesting guy, a sculptor, a lot of cool stuff, has a fun book coming out. I think it's called Home Alone.

or Alone at Home, Daniel Stern. I think it's going to be a good one. So you want to get any of this stuff and you want us to make a penny on each, go to hacksontap.com slash book club and check them out. There are a lot listed there. Get out your reading shoes because it's fun and these are great books. All right, brother. All right. We'll see you soon. See you next week. I'm the great pageant of democracy. The Howard Wolfson latex store. Get a new outfit.