VP Debate
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Well, thank you, Senator Vance. Well, I want to thank Governor Walz. I think this is a healthy conversation. I think there's a capacity to find solutions on this. Tim, first of all, I didn't know that your 17-year-old witness is shooting. I'm sorry about that. I appreciate it. Christ have mercy. It is awful. I'm going to

Thank Senator Vance. I think this is the conversation they want to hear. And I think there's a lot of agreement. Well, first of all, Tim just said something that I agree with. We are going to shake hands after this debate and after this election. And of course, I hope that we win and I think we're going to win. But if Tim Walz is the next vice president, he'll have my prayers. He'll have my best wishes and I'll have my help whenever he wants it.

And whether you vote for me or vote for Tim Walz, I just want to say I'm so proud to be doing this, and I'm rooting for you. God bless you, and good night. Well, David, let me tell you. I don't know about you, but I have had enough Minnesota and Ohio nice for a lifetime now after that debate last night. Listen, I'm imbued with the spirit of warmth and comedy and with a T, and I'm going to—and therefore you—

John Heilman here. I think we should just have a love fest. I got to say, I don't like either one of you guys as much as, as much as last night. I'm listening to those guys going like those guys like each other a lot more than the hacks like each other for Christ's sakes. I like you. I agree with you all. You know, I kind of

agree with you. It's like, I sort of agree with you. I'm like, Jesus Christ have mercy. Yeah. You're nice. No, you're nice. And by the way, Vance, that guy is a sweetheart. We all know and ask any Haitian running for their life. So let me ask you about this. So obviously we're talking the morning after the, uh, the, uh, vice presidential debate, uh,

This thing intrigues me, though. First of all, let's talk about Vance, who did very well. He's very proficient. He was very slick. And, you know, was, yes, the portrait of nice, you know. And it's completely different than what he's doing out there on the stump where he is, you know, nasty. A normal vice presidential candidate, slash and burn.

Yeah. Well, I mean, yeah. Or even a normal vice presidential candidate for Donald Trump. So it's

slash and burn times 10, you know, as in Springfield, Ohio, and so on. That wasn't the guy who showed up last night. Well, it was weird because he combined two things. One, I'll do my best Eddie Haskell kind of fake nice guy thing. And I'll steal a page from the Vivek Ramaswamy playbook and say a lot of crazy, completely nut things really quickly. So I'll sound smart.

And he's not an idiot. The problem is he's false, too. But he won on points. I saw, like, tweets last night from the right. The greatest debate of the last 50 years, you know, et cetera, et cetera. Now, being a VP debate, of course, doesn't matter for much. But I think it will—the fact that Vance is going to win the media score—

whether or not it moves voters, we ought to talk about. I don't think it really does at all. Well, here's the... I have an alternative theory, okay? And I want to run by you guys. Now, I am a bleary-eyed bloviator, so take it for what it's worth. But I... I...

Something happened last night that was really interesting. I'm watching a debate and I'm watching dial groups that are friends at a future forward had. And in those dial groups and the group was more Trump leaning or Vance leaning than than Walt's leaning going in. And Vance.

He dialed pretty well most of the debate until some places that we'll talk about. So did Waltz, except for some places that we talked about. Yeah, that's kind of what I thought. Big, sloppy. But here's the thing. Afterwards, as you know, undecided voters at this stage in the election are an ornery bunch. Yeah. Okay. They're not easy to please people. An incomprehensible bunch. Go on. Yeah.

But they were raving, as were the CNN online group, and then the CNN poll reflected some of this.

About the tone of the debate that they loved it. Yes, because you saw two guys doing what you don't see people doing anymore, which is kind of speaking respectfully and granting points. And yeah, they loved it. I agree. I've got all these emails. Same point. So, you know, my my theory is this. There's this is in a weird way. Vance has sort of.

opened a door to kind of anti-Trumpism, right? I think the reaction to that was in some ways a reaction to the environment that Trump has done so much to create.

And I do wonder whether that ultimately when Kamala Harris talks about turning the page on, you know, division and hate and this grinding politics, whether there's gold in those hills. Because, you know, technically...

Vance won that debate, and there's no question about it. But you look at the numbers in these dial groups afterwards on, you know, who won, you know, how did they do? They did relatively evenly. In the poll that CNN did, they said 50-50 on who won the debate. Same at CBS. But I just wonder, you know, I think Waltz got by on...

uh basic ingenuousness right and and decency let me just let me say three things quickly one i mean walls was as different from the way he's been in the campaign as vance although walls has been under basically under in witness protection since the since the convention but you think about the guy who made it onto the ticket by launching a campaign of calling jd vance weird calling

hungered he was you know he's looked like that that guy he went to a different place as much as vance did and obviously that was a product of a strategy we can talk about that strategy later and i think you know there's something that they clearly was he was pursuing a don't be joe biden taking on paul ryan in 2012 don't be the slash and burn attacking did not attack vance on a million things he could have attacked him on so that's one thing the other thing is

You guys will remember this. The thing that struck me to your point, David, is like going back to I remember one of the clearest political memories I have of the 1990s was Bill Clinton giving a State of the Union in 1995 after the Republican takeover of the House in 1994. And everyone thought Clinton was fucked. The era of big government is over.

But it was a long, long State of the Union, and it had all those micro-policies in it, all that Mark Penn crap, and everybody in the punditocracy looked at it and said, God, what a long, meandering, boring State of the Union, and the public loved it.

And it's kind of felt this debate felt like that to me where we're all kind of grading, you know, Tim Walls. God, what? You know, he's a you're giving it to J.D. Vance on points because he, you know, he was a better debater. And Walls seemed to be kind of nervous and wobbly at the beginning. And there wasn't enough combat. You got it. We all are looking for combat. We all can become conditioned to that. That's kind of what we expected. That's the scorecard.

Definitely what we expect in the age of Trump. And here are these undecided and persuadable voters in the middle of the electorate going, thank God. These guys are just trying to agree with you. I don't even care if it's honest or if it's genuine. The fact that they're just kind of turned the volume down is such a blessed relief to your point, Dave. And that's, I think, where the median voter in America is right now, which is, you know,

They're tired of Trump and they want to find a way to be for Harris. Which should land for her. Yes. I agree. If they can capitalize on it. Yeah. I think that is the rocket fuel, whether or not the Trump campaign can execute it. My three things. Harris campaign. Excuse me. No, no. I mean the Trump campaign. Can they ever adopt any of what Vance was able to do of Trump? I don't think they can. No. No. But she...

And she there might be an open one vice president's made who cares to people to the extent they knew either of these characters went into the debate liking Waltz a lot more. And that hurts fans because he started in a hole and he never quite got out of it, which is why all the post debate polls are 50 50. Everybody go into their corner.

But there's definitely a market for Ted Lasso politics here. And they were doing a bunch of that on the Dem side at the convention. You know, sweet and sour. All right. Have five lemons. How would you like a little piece of sugar now? You're killed for it. So I totally agree with the appetites. But you know, the only thing I really care about in this debate, an audience of one.

Donald J. Trump watching this, seeing the media fawn over Vance, thinking in his dark Voldemort head that that son of a bitch Vance went out there and did a fake nice guy act to suck up to the media. Where was the attack? Blah, blah, blah. He's trying to upstage me. He's playing the long game, that little son of a. So watch how Stalin takes this.

I think it might even spark Trump to ask for another debate. I'll show him all. I like that he was tweeting about Pete Rose in the middle of the debate last night. That's kind of like my favorite thing. That's how you know he wasn't loving Vance's performance because he's like, Pete Rose!

Those were all-time greats. I'm like, oh, boy. But I think the other kind of schadenfreude thing will be there's going to be some Democrat kind of unfair buyer's remorse over Waltz. John Shapiro is going to have a good day today. God, if you were only up there. Because Waltz is – I kind of respect the life choices Tim Waltz has made more than all four of them because I think he's a good person. But he has the killer instinct of a manatee.

And he just wasn't

able to put the iron to anybody and being the nicer guy of the two and the more light guy with this Ted Lasso theory probably helped him a little, but they're going to be people in the democratic party. He's going to get trashed for a while. And we're going to have the typical Democrat, uh, uh, short, but, but, but fierce, uh, nervous breakdown, I think. And partly because of the fact that there are these lingering, I think Mike, partly because there are these linear, I barely a day passes when someone, uh,

either in professional politics or someone who's really paying attention to the election doesn't say to me still to this day, don't you think she should have picked Josh Shapiro? That question comes up. It's a lingering that it's the lingering kind of nightmare scenario in everyone's head that, you know, we wake up on November 6th and she lost Pennsylvania by 8000 votes. And that's the and that's the ballgame. And and it's still out there. And this this debate will fuel that fuel that that cycle, that narrative and keep that that nightmare alive.

Yeah, well, I think where the Shapiro buyer's remorse will come is if she loses this race by the margin of Pennsylvania. And then you'll hear it loud and clear. There's no doubt if he were on the stage that night, I mean, he's a pugilist. And that thing would have been an entirely different thing. I think that would have thrilled the base.

But I don't know how it would have done with those swing voters who reacted so well to Walsh, who not only was there this tone that they liked, but they liked the fact that this guy seemed like a guy they could know. This is a guy who could know them.

That is a strength of him that, you know, we'll see. All I'm saying is I thought it was stunning that given how polished a performance that Vance turned in, how...

how people reacted to the debate. And, you know, but listen, one of the things that undermined that polished performance came at the end. There were two questions. One is this one where he talks about how Trump saved the Affordable Care Act. Donald Trump's savior of Obamacare. That's right. It's really Trumpcare.

Now what Governor Walts just said is actually not true. A lot of what happened and the reason that Obamacare was crushing under its own weight is that a lot of young and healthy people were leaving the exchanges. Donald Trump actually helped address that problem and he did so in a way that preserved people's access to coverage who had pre-existing conditions. But again,

And something that these guys do is they make a lot of claims about if Donald Trump becomes president, all of these terrible consequences are going to ensue. But in reality, Donald Trump was president. Inflation was low. Take home pay was higher. And he saved the very program from a Democratic administration that was collapsing and would have collapsed absent his presence.

He did his job, which is govern in a bipartisan way and get results, not just complain about problems, but actually solve them. What? Let me just interject. I love the eyeliner. Yes, I was going to say. I'm sure back in Kentucky that they start teaching them early how to eyeliner up. How does.

how does the Republican, how does the Republican base feel about the fact that that J. Vance, uh, uh, looks like, looks like someone who's, uh, uh, it looks like, I don't know, Lou Reed in circa 1972. You know, no, no, no. You guys are, you guys are missing the main point here. Well, we're, we're obsessed on cheap optics. And of course, Vance, I mean, poor Waltz looked like he saw a ghost half the time. His resting face. So this guy, but listen, yes, you always, I was there. You were there. Uh,

I was intimately involved with this. Trump tried 60 times to repeal the Affordable Care Act. He had no replacement for it. And then when he couldn't repeal it, he did everything he could to strangle it. He underfunded the subsidies. He cut back on the period of enrollment and marketing. And he did everything to undermine it. It actually was doing quite well when he arrived.

And he and he took a tried to take a machete to it because he couldn't kill it in the Congress. So, I mean, this is like a rich retelling. And just as a cherry on the cake in this campaign.

He has said, I would like, I still want to repeal the Affordable Care Act. So that was 100% bullshit. And in the dial groups, that was one of his lowest points in the whole debate because people knew it was bullshit. Well, also, you couldn't follow it. It was like, I tell you what.

I kind of you couldn't parse most of the sentences. I couldn't like track what he was saying other than somehow Trump saved it. I was like trying to actually listen and try to track what the argument was. He was actually made even ostensibly trying to make it was just like bewildering. And, you know, the thing with that is when you're going along and you're chugging along and you're hitting a nice tone and you're and people are following it. And then you say something that is completely.

incredible, incredible. And, uh, and you kind of pierce a little bit of that, of that veneer, you know, that you've worked at, but the bigger one, the bigger one, you guys was January six at the end of the debate, which was, Oh boy, that was the gold. And that in his clothes was good too. That's where Walsh kind of, uh, came back to life a little. Yeah. We should listen to that exchange.

ability to say he is still saying he didn't lose the election. I would just ask that. Did he lose the 2020 election? Tim, I'm focused on the future. Did Kamala Harris censor Americans from speaking their mind in the wake of the 2020 COVID situation?

That is a damning non-answer. It's a damning non-answer for you to not talk about censorship. Obviously, Donald Trump and I think that there were problems in 2020. We've talked about it. I'm happy to talk about it further. Actually, I don't think he was that happy to talk about it further.

I don't think he went. Yeah, I kind of wish that Waltz went back at him. Yes or no answer and ground a little bit, because I think the knife could have gone even deeper. But that's the problem with Vance's scam here, which is that the Eddie Haskell stuff would be nice and sweet, but totally just spew, you know, so much stuff that people, even with the rudimentary knowledge. Now, wait a minute. That's not right. And this is where Waltz.

Drew him out a little bit. And back to the eyeliner, I'm looking at him. It popped into my mind. The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Yeah, that's where I've seen that. He's Tim Curry. He's Frank and Furter or or possibly the other guy who's Google it. Kids, you will laugh because that's the look. Hey, David. Hey, David, ask me. Ask me how many times I've been convicted of a drug offense, how much time I've spent in federal penitentiaries over the course of my life.

I don't have to ask you. I know the answer to that question. And I still... If you ask me that question, I would tell you. Because we believe in second chances. We believe in second chances. We've invited you to be part of this show. Oh, that's your liberal stuff. I say lock you up. Lock you up. All right, John.

John, how much time have you done? How many times have you been convicted of a drug offense? And how much time did you go to college for? Mike, I'm focused on the future. And why is David Axelrod trying to censor the American people? It's not really enough.

Effective rejoinder. Yeah. So by the end, you know, at the end of the debate, I think the Vance thing kind of fell apart a little and Waltz gained. He also scored the highest scoring lines in the whole debate where Waltz talking about abortion rights. I will say also the thing about that January 6th thing, just to say this debate, because it was so genial and because it was so actually kind of policy heavy.

It's very hard for the morning show producers and for social media people to find memeable clips out of this debate. There's a lot of like, you know, long answers that don't get a real sting. If you watch morning TV today, that January 6th

Right. That's the thing that's going to go viral. Not only because the media, the first, first of all, because the media is rightly focused on January 6th and the insurrection and on the fact that there's still this, this 2020 denialism. And we, we, we, it hits our sweet spot because we think it's really important and we're not wrong about

that. But also, it's one of the few soundbite-able clips from the entire debate. So if you watch morning TV today, and I'm sure as we look at what the long tail is on the internet, where a lot more people are going to see this debate than ever saw live last night, that clip is already everywhere. It's going to be everywhere. It's probably going to be the most circulated clip from the debate. In that sense, it kind of

It kind of obviates all of Walls' terrible answer on Tiananmen Square and all the rest of it. Yeah, well, we ought to play a little of that, though, because that knucklehead thing was a whopper.

But I agree. It's the money clip, and it's good. Right. And the big moment, in a debate like this, which is probably not going to leave a mark anyway, if this is more than ever in a debate like this, it's about the moments that live on. If you have a shelf life, and that's going to be a moment that has a shelf life. Well, they campaigned immediately, cut an ad. I think they got an ad out this morning, maybe just a viral ad, but they're going to do what they can to fan this along. Yeah, let's listen to that. So he gets asked...

You know, I'm not sure most Americans really give a shit about this, but but Waltz was asked about saying that he was at Tiananmen Square when the protests took place in 1989. He said he just to be specific, he said he was he had claimed previously that he was in Hong Kong.

When in the spring of in the spring, in the spring of 89, when the when the democracy protest in Tiananmen Square, that was his previous claim. And then Minnesota Public Radio said, no, you didn't go there till August of that year. That's like the where what they what they he was asked to explain that discrepancy.

I grew up in small rural Nebraska, a town of 400, a town that you rode your bike with your buddies till the streetlights come on, and I'm proud of that service. I joined the National Guard at 17, worked on family farms, and then I used the GI Bill to become a teacher, passionate about it, a young teacher.

My first year out, I got the opportunity in the summer of 89 to travel to China. 35 years ago, be able to do that. I came back home and then started a program to take young people there. We would take basketball teams. We would take baseball teams. We would take dancers. And we would go back and forth to China. The issue for that was to try and learn. Now, look, my community knows who I am.

They saw where I was at. They look, I will be the first to tell you, I have poured my heart into my community. I've tried to do the best I can, but I've not been perfect. And I'm a knucklehead at times, but it's always been about that. Those same people elected me to Congress for 12 years. And in Congress, I was one of the most bipartisan people working on things like farm bills that we got done, working on veterans benefits. And then the people of Minnesota, they

were able to elect me to governor twice. So look, my commitment has been from the beginning to make sure that I'm there for the people, to make sure that I get this right. I will say more than anything. Many times I will talk a lot. I will get caught up in the rhetoric. But being there, the impact it made, the difference it made in my life, I learned a lot about China. I hear the critiques of this. I would make the case that Donald Trump should have come on one of those trips with us. I guarantee you he wouldn't be...

praising Xi Jinping about COVID. And I guarantee you he wouldn't start a trade war that he ends up losing. So this is about trying to understand the world. It's about trying to do the best you can for your community. And then it's putting yourself out there and letting your folks understand what it is. My commitment, whether it be through teaching, which I was good at, or whether it was being a good soldier or was being a good member of Congress, those are the things that I think are the values that people care about.

Governor, just to follow up on that, the question was, can you explain the discrepancy? All I said on this was, is I got there that summer and misspoke on this. So I will just, that's what I've said. So I was in

Hong Kong and China during the democracy protests went in. And from that, I learned a lot of what needed to be in governance. That's the long version where he didn't really answer the question. And so then Margaret Brennan came back and said, excuse me, Governor, you just talked for two minutes. You didn't answer my question. How do you explain the discrepancy? And then he gave a hum and a hum and a hum and a 25 second answer, which was basically, you know,

I can't really explain it. That was basically what he said. And then the main thing is you look like a deer in the headlights throughout the whole thing. I mean, he looks utterly unprepared for the question. Now it's a relatively recent thing. It's not an old story. That story came up just in the last 48 hours or so, but still it betrayed a certain lack of preparation because you would have thought they knew that they should have known that was coming and he would have had a crisp, clean answer to it of some kind.

Yeah. I mean, and like get the bad news out of the way at the beginning, you know, you want to tell the story about how you happen to be there. You can tell that story, but just answer the question first. And yeah, yeah. Stunning that I'm surprised. I'm sure they prepped him and they just went off into his own.

Mankato twirl. Well, it's, I mean, let me say this, a basic rule of politics, although maybe it worked for him. Maybe that sort of, like I said, maybe that sort of, but the whole knuckle calling yourself sink. Yeah. I'm a knucklehead.

I actually think that worked in isolation just because it's normal guy. Yeah, he's a knucklehead, but he's a good guy. If you started the answer with Margaret, I'm a knucklehead. I misspoke. Now, let me tell you about my experience in China. Just I misspoke. I said, you know, it's a long time ago. I made a mistake. I'm a knucklehead. Let's move on.

Right? Yeah. And then Vance could have said, see, here's another thing we agree on. Would have been to break into robotic Chinese, and then we'd get to live the Manchurian candidate. But...

He's sloppy. I mean, look, he was him. The other guy was slick. It's a sloppy tie. And I think you're right. His niceness saved his ass in both. I mean, I think that's been his superpower as a politician, basically, that whole demeanor. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

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You talked, Mike, you've spoken to high-level Democrats under the guise of not being a Republican. No, no, no. Careful, careful. I'm still Republican. We're bringing down the bad guy from the inside. But no, I spent a little time with a very high-ranking Democrat talking about the key states. And I was asked, what do you think? And I said...

I think she's got the ingredients in front of her to win. But I worry a lot about the economic wall of lava, which can wipe her out, even with Trump. So I think it's really tight race. And this is just perception because I know they're working hard over there. But my campaign spider sense after, you know, near Jurassic amount of time doing this is like you guys is it feels like they they've.

slackened off a little. I think she has the opportunity to do something big and interesting every six days and ride that. And I haven't felt anything like that since the debate. That's why I keep harping on Al Smith dinner. Not that anybody cares about the Al Smith dinner, but it was a platform for her to score again and ride it. And instead they ducked it. Um,

And so I feel like that. And then this person who's extremely well informed said, I'm terrified. I'm not seeing what I need to see. I know the Al Smith dinner is a particular favorite of yours, but she is doing 60 minutes that night. That's probably going to get maybe almost as many eyes as the Al Smith dinner. Yeah, right. Yeah. But you can do both and double kill. You know, the duck in the Al Smith thing with Trump there looks weak.

And I think she'd crush there and just lost opportunity. And you also do 60. Can I just – let me do one slight little reframe here, which is does anybody here think that this debate is going to matter 48 hours from now? No. That's our basic view is – I disagree. Only if it drives Trump nuts.

Right. Yeah, that's it. I think it's going to matter a lot. The Trump-Vance relationship is never going to be the same now. And Trump will act out. And I still think Trump might say, debate? I'm a master debater. I'll show you. Get me a camera. He's a master debater, all right. Pun intended. Yeah.

So stay tuned for crazy Trump here, because I think Vance is better looking than Stalin. And we're reading that in the papers now. So let's see what Stalin does. David, do you think it affects the odds of a third debate? Does it make Trump more likely, less likely or no impact whatsoever on his thinking about a third debate, a second debate with Harris? Well, before I answer that question, I got to get out of them. You know,

I'm still getting my arms around the whole, your joke about master debating. Well, I mean, Trump is the master, master debater. But I, look, if rationality reigns, Trump will not debate and he will not debate because he's- Well, that answers it. Right. So we definitely have a debate. What's so- Yeah, bet on the debate. Circle October 14th on your calendar. Yeah.

Because he's not a good debater anymore, and I'm not sure he ever was. Not even a master. And she is. And it would be to debate on October 23rd, which is the date it would happen.

with no chance to recover. I mean, she had 10 good days after the last debate. So that is not what he wants to do. That said, like Alyssa Farrah Griffin, who was his communications director, who's on the panel at CNN with me, she, you know, she doesn't believe the guy can pass on 70 million people. Oh,

Others who know him say, you know, he'll he just the idea that she bested him and that will be the final word is does he can't live with that. But I think and that doubles now with the Republican Party's great 100 percent. I think the J.D. Vance thing is going to make him fucking crazy. And and and, you know, he's sitting there. He's still smarting over the fact that everyone in the known universe thinks he got his clock clean in the first debate. And now his understudy.

is perceived as having had a great debate and people are explicitly saying, God, JD Vance is better than Donald Trump. I mean, that is burning in his, burning a hole in his psyche. And I think, look, I'm not going to predict because you never know what Trump, but man, if I, I have thought from the very first day that he said there wouldn't be a second, another debate with Harris, I thought there would be. And, and last night, I think increases the odds. It doesn't make it certain, but increases the odds. One of the, uh, uh,

one of the rules of Trump world is never upstage the leading man. Right. So, uh,

you know, but so, so we'll see. I'm dying to read the, the background leaks out of Trump world. Trump was unhappy with Vance's strange feminine makeup. You know, he'll go up on that. I think Trump, why is he wearing some of the, I don't think highlighter looks masculine. It doesn't look like a man. Yeah. Some people are talking. I'm hearing it. I'm hearing it everywhere. People don't like the makeup. They don't like the makeup. JD, uh, it's Haitian makeup. It's not good. Uh,

And the other thing, well, I want to start a rumor that Trump's thinking of taking back the race with the debate challenge. And they've cleared J.D. Vance's schedule to be Trump's debate coach to fix his terrible debating. That's a good process story. I'm hearing it. I'm hearing it everywhere. He's calling Don Jr. and saying, if I wanted a Maybelline model, you shouldn't have sent me J.D. Vance.

Exactly. I said I wanted a runway model, not an Ohio. Yeah, I got the Revlon lady. This is like open mic night at some very, very low brow. At the Funny Bone in Pittsburgh. Karaoke, comedy bar. Right. So, okay, so it's not going to leave it. We think other than in Trump's head, it has no political impact at all. And then there's the question I think that, Mike, you were getting at, which is kind of to tie this to the race, which is what does it do to the narratives about Trump?

Harris and Trump and where the race stands right now. And you're... It could give Trump a little crumb. I mean, I think the press would like to write Harris stumbles a little, loses some gas. Well, J.D. Vance gives Trump, and again, back to that thing, a little bit of a comeback. I think if I were the... I'd want to fix the narrative with some kind of offense if I were Harris. But here's the reality. I'm going to try 60 minutes, but she won't be great at that. She has...

reached a plateau. She made incremental progress for every day for 10 days after the debate. And she's kind of stalled out. And I think in the last...

72 hours maybe has even lost a tiny bit. And one of the things that I want to raise with you guys is there are a lot of things going on in the world. There is a war in the Middle East that could very well expand. There is a longshoreman strike that could have real implications for the economy and for inflation and supply chains and so on. You

You know, so there there is a lot happening. And I think that does not help her. I don't think these things help her. I don't think. Well, it gives Trump the strength. Right. Exactly. That, you know, those longshoremen wouldn't try that hokey pokey with me. And I'd make one call to that Isla, whatever the hell his name is. And that war would end. I mean, that's perfect for Trump. Here's a direct question to the two of you, both as as as former as former high level hacks.

The last weekend when the last round of New York Times-Siena polls came out where they had finally done all the battleground states, there was this – everyone took a deep breath and said, okay, so she's got this small two-and-a-half, three-point lead nationally. She's got smaller –

but kind of consistent leads in the, in the blue wall States. She's not doing as well in, in places like Arizona, Florida, or sorry, in places like Arizona and Georgia, but you know, it's the racist as close as it's ever been. The New York times has a, she could, the two 70 scenario could happen. So the race is super tight. And,

And I would say in our world, the single question I have heard more than any other question in the last week has been, is Harris doing enough?

is she doing enough? Which goes to the stalled out question. Is she, is she, and I, I ask you this, the question to the two of you is like, do you think she's doing enough? And if the answer is no, what should she be doing? Like what more interviews, more events, more what? We've talked about this before. I think she needs to do, uh,

all of the above. She needs to do town halls. She needs to do OTRs where she's interacting with people. She needs to do local news outlets. She needs to do interesting—she did a podcast this week—but interesting kinds of alternative media that will get into the seams of the electorate in a way that mainstream media doesn't. She needs to—the

The bar gets raised all the time in this, and the bar is now raised. She has passed the early tests.

The last test is how much is she willing to expose herself to that kind of unscripted scrutiny? And it's not a matter of satisfying the media. It's a matter of satisfying voters. They want to see who you are. It doesn't feel like her schedule has been super intense. And I just, in general, in terms of public events, not that she's not doing anything, but Mike, it's like, my sense of it is she's just not, it doesn't feel like

I'm running flat out. I am everywhere. J.D. Vance has been more ubiquitous over the last few weeks than she has. He looks like we're running with our lives and democracy is at stake. It doesn't feel like Harrison Walls are everywhere. I agree. And I would give the same prescription as Dr. Axelrod here, which is fill the zone. Yeah.

You know, the thing when you keep doing high wire interviews, OK, Super Bowl interview on 60 minutes, it gets too much scrutiny. You do a bunch of that stuff and it's like, oh, yeah, learn more about her. The other thing I wouldn't be afraid to announce a hundred day goal. Here's what I'm going to get done for you in the first hundred days and go take it on the road for a week. Something sharp, some kind of contrast. I would also, as her visibility increases by doing all this stuff, even at an impromptu,

You know, I throw another debate challenge out at Trump. Yeah, he's chicken. He probably sent Vance. He can't debate. I'm ready for him. Just to, you know, mock Donald a little bit more volume, more aggression. And I would talk more metal bending jobs. They have such a good story that nobody in America knows. And I'll go into my thing for a merciful 10 seconds. You got it right over your shoulder. You might as well.

Clock is running. Yeah, I got Muskie on the other shoulder. I'm doing double here. But they've got 200,000. The problem is the Dems always go do green jobs, and people think they're going to be an accountant working on bamboo paper or something, and a millwright in Detroit doesn't want to hear that.

But when you say metal bending manufacturing jobs, we've built more auto plants in the last three years than we have, I believe, in the last 30. And they're all in Georgia and Michigan. Duh. So I would go out and tell that story. That would have been a good talking point for Walt's last night. Totally. Let me tell you about a plant I was at last week in Georgia. They're going to have 400 electricians starting next week to wire this thing. There are going to be 3,000 more. I mean, the...

Run a Michigan governor's race a little bit and a Georgia governor's race in those two states and get in the dirt. Look at the damn things. Go pick up a big ass electric pickup truck in Detroit and talk about these jobs weren't here two years ago. By the way, we're going to beat the damn Chinese, you know, because we're going to have a president on your side, not on his. Mike, you know, Michigan really well. And David, you do, too. You live there part time. When you guys see the because we haven't seen each other for the last couple of weeks. So I need to tap into your smarts about this.

You've got a lot smarter since you've been gone. Yeah, yeah. Alleged shots. Rumored only. I just said that there's been a striking thing, which is that she's, again, according to all the public polling, she's been

been performing consistently better than some people expected in those blue wall states in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Are you guys suspicious about that on the basis of your spidey sense and any private polling? I think that those states are tighter. I think she is in a pretty good spot in Wisconsin.

I think she is. I think she is struggling in Michigan. And I think, you know, they've been pummeling her on the electric car issue.

And she hasn't fought back on that. And you've got the you do have a problem with the Arab community around Detroit. And you have the problem that she's had other places where she's sort of lagging the numbers she needs right now among African-American voters and their turnout concerns. So Michigan's a concern. Pennsylvania, I think she's got a little bit of a lead, but that's a treacherous state that and she has to have it.

Georgia becomes important. The state Murphy's mentioned. Yeah, it's the hedge. Unless you can pull off the trifecta with Nevada and Arizona, which is Nevada shall win. But Arizona, let me just say against losing Michigan, too. Right, right. Well, Michigan, too. Right, right. Exactly. So in Michigan, there's one kind of new development. And Trump's got a pretty good add up. In fact, it's all about you're going to lose your job as not a worker.

Attention, autoworkers. Kamala Harris wants to end all gas-powered cars. Crazy, but true. Harris's push requiring electric only is failing big. And Michigan autoworkers are paying the price. Massive layoffs already started. You could be next. President Trump's committed to protecting America's autoworkers, standing up to China's unfair trade, fixing the economy, and ending inflation.

I'm Donald J. Trump, and I approve this message. There's something going on with this Lebanon invasion, too. So Dearborn, Michigan, South Wayne County, largest Arab-American community in the world. By the way, ask anybody in counterterrorism, thank God for Dearborn, because that's where we recruit our native Arabic speakers who have been incredibly vital in the work to keep terrorist events from happening in America. But that community is very tied, partially Muslim, partially Christian.

Now, the Christian half has not been engaged. It's, you know, a pretty strong democratic community. The Christian half has not been engaged in this. The Muslim half, you can call a relative now with a cell phone and hear about a cousin who got killed.

Well, now that it's in Lebanon, it's touching the Christian Lebanese with a lot of relatives back home in Michigan. And Michigan Pauls on the Dem side are very concerned about this because it could double the problem. So, yeah, that is a huge factor there. And finally, we should put out one plug. I totally agree in Pennsylvania, but our friend John Anzalone and Tony Fabrizio, who's also been on the podcast, who's a Republican pollster, works for Trump, did a joint podcast.

Pennsylvania poll and it showed her up a couple. So I'm sure Tony is hanging upside down in the basement of Mar-a-Lago and next to the closet where they keep all the nuclear codes for everybody to see. That was a little better indication. Most of the private stuff is tighter in Pennsylvania. And I've heard about a few polls having her down one or two. So it's all margin of error and plenty to worry about. And I'll tell you the one other running thing that I keep hearing from that, the little just now, like you keep these little phrases and from, from

people in the camp in both the campaigns and, and people out in the broader political world, which is, um, especially I would say more on the, on the left in this case, do you hear people saying, you know, this feels the, her underperformance with African-American voters and the,

the kind of perception that they're not doing enough, particularly on that front. I've heard a number of, there's like the phrase, which is, this feels like 2016 again. And I've heard that in the last couple of weeks from a bunch of people and where the people who are talking about this kind of racial depolarization, that she's performing better with white voters than people necessarily thought, better than Biden right now, than Biden did in 2020. But you look at the African-American numbers and as you know, Georgia, North Carolina, those are both states that

with a strong performance, the African-American voters, she should be able to win both those states. And there seems to be like a little inattention, inattention to it. That's worrying Democrats that, that they're not focused enough on, on trying to turn out what should be their base much better than with Biden, but work to do better than Biden was. I would say Mike better than what Biden was before he dropped out, but not better than Biden was in 2020 where his numbers without, she's lagging those numbers on North Carolina. Yeah.

I've always thought that Georgia was actually a better bet because you've got 10% more African-American voters there. Yeah, it's easier. And North Carolina is the second most rural state in the country. Here's my question about North Carolina. You had these killer storms, which, by the way, was a third...

Big story this week. Yes, another. And there's a lot of displacement in Western North Carolina. Now, Asheville is a blue dot in that area, but there are a lot of key. But those voters in Asheville are there. They're, you know, the kind of voters who will figure out a way to vote. You know, they're upscale voters.

kind of liberal voters, and they're probably going to figure out a way to vote. I'm not sure a bunch of these folks who've had their homes and lives destroyed elsewhere in Western North Carolina, in the mountains there, are going to be as easy to wrangle for the Trump campaign. So

I don't know how that's all going to play out, but it's an unpredictable element in North Carolina that has made it maybe a little more interesting. But just in—this is a long way around to answer your question, Heilman. I think that this is two—the battleground states, the northern tier battleground states other than Wisconsin are—

um scary and uh two you can't count on them she's got to find maybe a an insurance policy and that's why this whole but she needs a second act that's the main thing that yeah she's getting the second look now and she ought to grab the microphone and kill that's how you get elected president i think that the thing we talked about at the beginning like this hunger for something else

this it's the gold. I totally agree with this. I think that's, I think that's the way she should. I think that's the way she should go. Optimistic, future focused economy. Well, and just, just turn the page. Yeah. Decent. Civility, you know, let's stop killing each other here and start getting some shit done. I just think there's an audience for that and she's got to become sort of evangelical and,

uh about that so uh we'll see what happens she could wrap it in another debate challenge look i'm hoping a little of jd's civility rubs off on donald i'd be happy to debate him again if he's you know maybe jd can give him some tips oh my god so that would if you really if you really it

if you really focused on how to bait that hook, man, you'd be deep. And you can do that in an impromptu, you know, then it's very organic. It's not some stage phony challenge. That's why she ought to be doing more prompt dues with a great soundbite every day. Let me posit something else to you guys. Trump's big play right now. And they're, they're doing a pretty good job of getting heavy weight around one spot at a time. Murphy, there's a, on the, on the, on the, uh,

Harris side, they're running a lot of ads at once. And I'm a little suspicious about how the buying is happening over there and whether it's strategically smart. But let's set that question aside. Trump has put tons of weight behind this this this trans spot. You know, Harris from 19 2019 saying she'd pay for, you know, the prisoners to get

and sexual reassignment surgery, sexual reassignment surgery. Thanks. And it's, you know, it's, it's a pretty jarring spot. They had it three times on Monday night football. So they know their audience. What would you guys do about that strategically if you were her and generally, what do you do about all these kind of crazy things?

positions that she took in 2019 when she got a lot of bad advice and ran a bad campaign and looked bad saying stuff that she didn't clearly wasn't that attached to.

Well, I'd be careful into falling into the swamp. All right. They're spending 11 million calling us a prison trans left wing social engineer, whatever it is. Why don't we spend 10 million denying it? So now it's essential. Yeah, I agree with that. I agree. I'm not saying it's an ad thing.

I'd fill the zone with other stuff. And if you get the media question, the more media you do about what about all your kooky position? I've grown and evolved. I'll tell you, the best way to learn to be an effective president is to be vice president. You're in every room. You learn everything. And I got a great plan for the next four years. There are going to be some changes. I'm going to put the middle class first for a change. I'm going to bring in new faces, new energy, new ideas. Boom, boom, boom, boom. Sell your candy. Yeah. So basically avoid it. Yeah.

I don't think I think their game is to engage it. Now we're going to have a big argument about trans prisoners. It's Hillary in bathrooms. But a button on the Trump spot is smart because it's it is like, well, she's thinking about this. I'm thinking, you know, Trump is worried about jobs and getting the border done. And so they have the right button on it. Yeah. Heilman.

I think, David, I think the, you know, to your, it ties neatly into the previous point, which is you got to like just point to, you don't want to get in a fight over trans stuff specifically, but you can kind of point to it as, you

this is another example of why we need to move past Donald Trump. He just wants to get in. He wants to drag us into division and into the politics of anger and hate. And I'm, you know, I'm looking towards the future. You know, there's a, there's a, I think you gotta, you gotta kind of portray that those kinds of attacks as just, you know, there he goes again, trying to try, try that, that focus on the tonal thing. But I still think that, that it's a mistake that she hasn't,

I mean, Trump didn't go after her in the debate in the way that you thought he was going to on her changes of her new positions relative to 2019. And I still think that she's never had the she never taken the opportunity or really had the prime opportunity to really try to, like, address all of that in

In some comprehensive way. And we've talked on the show and Mike just did a version of it, but I mean, it still is a thing that you hear from people, which is they don't really feel like they understand. She moved away from all those positions without ever, ever really explaining it in some way that was convincing and authentic. And I think that's still an opportunity. It's an opportunity for her to be able to sort of talk about her evolution because evolution is something that voters will embrace if it's properly explained to them. Yeah. Yeah.

There's just a lot of evolving to be done. Well, that's another problem they've got. She doesn't like to admit that. That's why she's never had a good fracking answer. She gives this deposition. Well, at 3.07 p.m., I said on 2000 in a debate that I was sort of kind of okay with fracking. And rather than say, I've evolved. I've learned a lot. You know, quote Churchill, when the facts change, I take another look at

Well, you know, the other thing is she's been vice president of the United States for three and a half years. Yeah. And I think she ought to take advantage of that and say, you know, you gain a broader perspective in that office. Yes. And there are a number of things that I've thought through, and there are a number of things that, you know, circumstances have changed in other places. But I am articulating now what I will do as president of the United States. Right.

I, until I was vice president, I had only represented the people of California and then I became vice president. I represented all 50 States. And when that happened, you know, that was a transformative experience for me. I learned a lot. You can even make a meal out of, you know what, you're never going to hear this from somebody running for office, but I was wrong, you know, and I can admit it. And that's part of character. You can't say knucklehead because it's been taken.

Yeah, knuckleheads and Stolten, but I was a charterhead, my Michigan friends or my Boston pals. But no, no, people love that. I'll never get in the Whitman race. We're running for reelected in 97 in New Jersey, and we had the usual car insurance blow up. And it was a fight, but the governor got up and said, I didn't do a good job.

I got to do better. We got to plan for term two. It was five points on the ballot overnight. It worked like a charm. People love it. It's disarming. Yeah. Yeah. Because what honesty from a politician? I can't believe it. These are good ideas, you guys. And we perform this as a service. So if there are other candidates who want us to work million dollar problems right here on the podcast, we will do it. Yeah. Yeah. Call call 1-800-STALLING-CAMPAIGN and we'll try to try to get you going. Mike, I think you have something.

At some point, Mike called this like the cleansing power of apology or something. It's like, it's true. It's like, there's nothing people, nothing people like better than being apologized to. Hey, I'm sorry. I was wrong. You know, please accept my, my, my, I'm human. Just like, Oh, Hey, wait, okay, great. It's just, it's, it's, I'll tell you, there's nothing I hate in a campaign staff call. There's always some jerk who says, well, we can't show weakness.

I'm like, well, you know, look at the Russian army. Here's weakness. Retreat 1,000 miles. Freeze everybody to death. And you're in Berlin two years later. Sometimes a little weakness is the strongest offense. Wow. I got to go back and listen to the tape of this and follow your – Yeah, I can tell. You were up late last night. I was. I'm like – That one's ricocheting around your head. I'm in the trenches of World War II with you. Yeah. Well, good analogy. Yeah.

Before we go, you guys, we haven't done this book club thing in a while, but I want to recommend to you and to anyone interested in politics, and particularly urban politics and government, a buddy of mine, Forrest Claypool, who was...

one of the most talented public administrators I ever knew. He started off as a partner of mine in the political business and when became Rich Daly's, one of his first chiefs of staff in Chicago and filled a number of positions in that city and ran for office and served and so on. He wrote a book called The Daily Show.

And it was lessons, you know, transformative lessons from Daley's administration. And Daley was a transformative mayor in that city. It's a pretty good book with a lot of good stories. I admit I wrote the foreword to it, but I recommend it to you if you're interested in city politics and

We'll put it on our website, which is hacksontap.com slash book club. And I will say that one of my voting names in Chicago is Mike Claypool. So there you go. In honor. It was Mike Daly. I thought it was Mike Daly. For a second. I also vote under Claypool Jones, Claypool O'Rourke. I got 17 Claypool names. No, I'm going to check it out because I've heard tell. And the Daly administration is really interesting. Oh, yeah. No, he was a really fascinating person.

And I rode that journey with him, you know, when he came to office in 1989. Chicago was really on the edge of the abyss in many ways and torn apart by racial strife and racism.

corrupt, weak politicians in charge. And he turned the city around in a really big way. So anyway, just wanted to mention that. We are going to apologize, though, to our hackaroos, because yet again, we don't have time to get to the mailbag. Well, that's cleansing. Go ahead.

Yeah, there you go. But send us a bunch of questions. We're trying to do like a double mailbag with more questions next week. We'll be in the bag next week. You can be assured of that. Mike, you need to tell them to call in. We'd like to hear their voices on the voicemail. Yeah, we do like the call-ins. Remember, you can do it on voice memo on your smartphone. Just email it to us. Just, you know, we're the bloviators around here, so try to keep it to 30 seconds. Use your name. Send it to hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com.

Or you can call our Voter Registration Center in Chicago and leave a voicemail on the special number. 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. AI Murphy. I love AI Murphy. Hey, speaking of AI, have you guys seen the Suno thing? Do you know about this? This AI music thing?

It's like a site that you give it, you type in like 200 words, tell them what kind of music you like and what the topic is. And you give them as much detail as you can in 200 words. And like 20 seconds later, they send you back a song.

So I think I'm going to throw in about you guys. Oh, Jesus. Yeah. Well, listener challenge. Somebody get a couple of songs written. The best one we're playing in the mail. Not a substitute for a human sued by an AI lawyer substitute for real human.

and musicians. Let me add that. Yeah, we're worried about mail from ASCAP and the violin union. Good Democrat. But yeah, if we get a really cool song sent to us, we can play it. Just check to make sure we can put it on about getting sued. Well, I won't tell you

Don't put the truth in the 200 words, so it'll probably come out clean. Yeah. And one last plug, everybody. Don't miss the new episode of Directly Current, a podcast about EV politics hosted by the great Max Patton. We had a special guest, a guy thinking of buying an EV, needs to figure out which one, and had a sharp political take on EV politics. The one, the only, the hack, David Axelrod guested. David, thank you for that. Check it out. Directly Current with Max Patton on all your pod platforms. Baseball playoffs just started.

You know, the Detroit Tigers in the hunt. Are there any other teams who are in the wildcard round here? Do we have... I know, David, you... I don't know whether Murphy's really a baseball fan, but David, I know you're obsessed with Major League Baseball, even though both... The White Sox had the worst season in the history of Major League Baseball? The worst, or...

There are statistical debates about this, but they lost more games than anyone in modern major league history. Pretty fucking bad. And the Cubs did not make the playoffs. But do you have a dog, so to speak, in this fight? Well, I'll probably root for the Tigers because I live in Michigan. A buddy of mine, Scott Harris, is the president of the club. And they're the—

They're a good story. They're great. Let's just say it. They're a good story. So let's go, Tigers. And I'm going on this site. I'm working on the ballot of Tim Walls. I was on my way to Menards. Debating's awful hard. All right. I've got my hook. Let me see if we can come up with it. I was going to say, let's go Mets. Oh, yes.

I thought you were an L.A. I say let's go. I'm always I'm true to the Dodgers all the way. But the Dodgers are just going to roll through the whole thing. I kind of I like to root for the Mets until they get to the Dodgers. And then, of course, I grew up a Mets fan. So but I can't root for them now. Speaking of let's go, I think we have to. So, yeah, get the hook. They're going to turn our mics off. Yeah.

So thank you guys. Christ have mercy. Christ have mercy. Well, on that note. All right. Happy New Year to all my Jewish friends out there. All right, guys. See ya. All right. See ya. See ya.