The Veepstakes (with Jonathan Martin and Bob Costa)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap

My God, they went after cat people. Good luck with that. Turn on the internet and see what cat people do when you go after them. She's afraid to debate her now. Do you see that? And it's not just because she's a skilled debater and a courtroom prosecutor who knows how to make the case.

He's afraid to debate her because he can't defend his record. Yeah, I have two daughters. I have a granddaughter. I'm really concerned about J.D. Vance being a heartbeat away from the presidency and also just as vice president being involved in decision making that can affect my kids. Have you watched any of the Olympics? I thought that the opening ceremony was a disgrace, actually.

Okay, Hacker Roos, that was the real Olympics, the vice presidential Olympics. First, you heard Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota.

And then you heard the one and only Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. And then Mark Kelly, former astronaut fighter pilot turned senator from Arizona. All of whom are out on the shows making their case for the veep stakes to be the vice president on the new and improved Democratic Ticket 2.0. Now, my podcasting partner, David Axelrod, is...

He'll never turn down 500 bucks to open a used car lot, so he's on assignment right now. But we brought in two political heavyweights, big-time, big-time journals here joining us from CBS News, the kingpin, let's admit it, Mr. Politics over there, my dear friend for many years, the great Robert Costa. Hey, Bob.

Great to be with you guys. And from Paris, where he's been touring the, let's put it this way, he's been eating his way through Paris, occasionally watching a sporting event, the one and only Jonathan Martin from Politico. Hey, J-Mart. Thanks for having me, or as the French say, bonjour. I want to see the pictures from this trip. My God, three soups. Who is this man?

So here we are, guys. Let's dive in. We have a whole new race. We have a whole new candidate. Grade the launch. And Bob, we'll start with you. How's Kamala doing jumping on the...

on the whirlwind here? Well, I see a candidate who's generating a lot of electricity among Democrats to be determined whether it's among swing voters, independents, maybe some traditional Republicans, but she's galvanized Democrats. There's no doubt about it. I mean, she's brought the word brat away from pop culture and Charlie XCX into political mainstream discussion. It's this kind of

cultural moment as well as a political moment. And it's still late July, early August, though, and you just don't know how this all plays out long term. But the Democrats are

Seem to have navigated a very difficult transition away from their nominee, the presumptive nominee to Vice President Harris, relatively seamlessly. Still some grumbles about how it all went went down. But you have enthusiasm from the president. You got the vice president out there hasn't made any major mistakes, has hit this message of we are not going back, bringing the spotlight on to Trump. And that seems to really be galvanizing Democrats and that they were looking for a jolt.

And Trump is not the new thing now in the American political scene. This country always loves the new. Trump was new in 16. He seemed still almost like an outsider in 20 to many. But she's now new. And a lot of voters I've encountered, it's notable how they don't really know her. So she actually has an opportunity to define herself. The Republicans are racing to define her based on what she said in 2019, 2020, when she ran for the presidency. But for a lot of people,

Whether Republicans like it or not, she's new and she has some runway. Yeah, Mike, it's so striking for the three of us who all...

covered in or lived through 2019 and 2020. And we know about the belly flop that was the Harris campaign for president. Now see almost like what's that movie where they like a race, whatever you knew, the Will Smith picture, Mike, you know, I've been in black. Oh, right. Yeah. The little zapper.

Yeah, but it's like that for the vast majority of the country. And Bob Reyes is a good point. What she realized is most Americans have a glancing knowledge of the political actors in this country. They didn't have a great vibe about her, but they didn't really know anything about her. And they're totally open to be reintroduced. And that's her best opportunity to run a strong campaign. Unlike everybody else in American life, she does have a second chance to make a first regression.

No, I agree with that. But here's my theory of the whole thing, which there's such euphoria for Kamala now or get letters. So send them to Axelrod. But there she was, the world's worst campaign when she ran for president originally. Couldn't get any traction in the African-American community either. There were open rumors about will they replace her as VP?

And then, you know, Joe Biden has his decline. The Democrats go into the worst morale Marianas trench. I mean, they couldn't be more low, thinking it's over, thinking the great Satan Trump is going to get reelected again. And then, zoom, Biden makes a selfish act. I give him huge credit for it.

takes himself out of the race and then all of a sudden the morale reversal is a neck snapper and there's like literally a tornado of emotion and the tornado is so big and so powerful it picks up

Kamala Harris, who had been kind of like damaged goods before, picks her up like a semi, and now she's flying at 800 feet at 300 miles an hour. And I give her credit for managing that first week pretty well. They framed the message well. They've made no mistakes other than, I think, being late to get on television with the campaign, though the super PAC did go up. But we know the tornado is going to end and the semi is going to hit the ground. And then the question is, can it roll or not?

So I agree with you guys. It's all about definition right now. Mike, I'm in Paris, so I'm going to borrow from Victor Hugo. As Donald Trump would say, who more and more people are talking about these days. Victor Hugo, his great line, nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come.

And by the way, Hugo Vance, if somebody said it before him and he borrowed it from them, send the mail to Murphy at his dog track. But seriously, you know, Hugo said that about the tower of ideas. Well, it turns out there is something that's more powerful than an idea whose time has come. And that is precisely the confluence that you just mentioned, which is the confluence of Democrats' desire to beat Donald Trump and Democrats' profound despair of

about their circumstances with Joe Biden this summer. That confluence, those two forces coming together. We got to beat Trump. Holy shit. Our guy's not getting it done. What are we going to do? Two title forces came together. I think that's what propelled Kamala Harris the first 10 days. But what, Bob, what do you think? Look, we're going to go through the convention and we're going to talk about the definition battle and the new ads. We're going to play them both in a minute here.

as the campaign struggled to define her. I mean, you're right. She's new. New is very powerful. It's the most powerful word in advertising, new and improved. But nobody really knows. And I keep remembering before the infamous debate where President Biden's age really broke through as a disqualifying issue,

People were ready to fire the Biden-Harris ticket on the economy. And, you know, we've kind of taken a breather from the normal rules of gravity in the race. But when do you think that'll return? And she's going to have to...

you know, define herself as somehow taking credit for what you can brag about with Biden, but not being as responsible for inflation and all the economic pain that was, they were losing the campaign before the debate. So when do you think normal rules of gravity will return to the race? This is not a normal campaign. I mean, I think about Jonathan's book with, um,

Alex Burns, this will not pass. I mean, there was a kind of this ominous sensibility to what was happening with American democracy during the Biden campaign. We were in Meacham summer. Now we're in Bratt summer. The framing of the campaign is different now. It's not that kind of Biden view of the world that democracy is on the line and it needs to be confronted. Of course, Vice President Harris still shares that view, but there's a bounciness to her message.

And it's going to come to the economy, too. There's a combativeness that she's going to have, not more of the historical sweep. And I'm already hearing from Harris advisors on the economy. You're going to hear her talk about the Trump tax rates and he's going to let Democrats

These be extended if he wins and tie him to corporate America as much as possible. And whereas Biden comes out of that more riding Amtrak from Wilmington, Delaware persona, all the credit card companies and being mindful of business, Harris has that California progressive streak. And she will take not necessarily Bernie Sanders' playbook, but she'll take some of the ethos of it and be a little bit more combative when it comes to

the culture and also to the business community. I've spoken to Senator Sanders about this, and he says, look, if she just talks about workers more, she takes on corporate America with a bit of a sharper attack, that's going to get her economic argument more connected with people who are aggrieved about inflation, and it's going to connect her in a way that will be effective against Trump, even if she's not running as effectively

the populist who goes to union halls like Biden did. But everywhere Biden went, he seemed to go to a union hall. It was labor. And she may have that combative, progressive, anti-corporate sensibility. It's kind of a populism of the left, though. It's not as lunch pail as Biden's. That's right. And look, she's still going to have to get that lunch pail union worker to win the election. I mean, if she loses the Biden voter at the union hall, it's going to be hard to see how her map comes together.

Well, why don't we, she set a signal here. You know, there's been a lot of carping in the consultant community. Why did it take them so long to get paid advertising up? Future Forward, one of their super PACs, came up pretty quick to fill the void. But some of the Future Forward people, I think, have made it clear they were planning on spending later and where the hell's the campaign? But, you know, they plugged the dike. But now the first

The Harris ad is out. So why don't we give it a listen? It's a minute, but I think we should play the full thing because it's a telegraph of where I think they want to put the messaging and the definition of her. The one thing Kamala Harris has always been, fearless.

As a prosecutor, she put murderers and abusers behind bars. As California's Attorney General, she went after the big banks and won $20 billion for homeowners. And as Vice President, she took on the big drug companies to cap the cost of insulin for seniors. Because Kamala Harris has always known who she represents. This campaign is about who we fight for.

We believe in a future where every person has the opportunity not just to get by, but to get ahead. Where every senior can retire with dignity. But Donald Trump wants to take our country backward. To give tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations and end the Affordable Care Act. But we are not going back. I'm Kamala Harris and I approve this message.

All right, Le Cinéma Critique, J-Mart from Paris. I think they're playing the middle class hits there, and I think it's smart. What do you think? Yeah, no, I think she definitely has to go hard. As Bob pointed out, it's sort of a populace, but it's not really a kind of a satin, satin Boilermakers jacket.

you know, shot in a beer populist, right? It's her version of populist. It's a California populist. And it sort of suits her. Well, I'm really curious to see if she is able to do, do something on the DEI attacks, which I think we can talk about here in a bit, you know, the Republican line of attack against her, totally predictable that she's a DEI key that I,

How does she respond to that, A? And B, does she try to use that as a kind of jujitsu political move to not only go back at the Republicans and give it back to them, but also kind of send a message about how she wants her identity to be framed? I think that's going to be a real tell about her candidacy, Mike. Yeah, I just, what I like about this ad is she's going to where I think the strength is. Now, the prosecutor thing worries me a little. If I were her, I don't want the whole campaign to be a crime fight.

Because they're going to dig up their Willie Horton stuff out of her days in San Francisco, fair or unfair, accurate or not. And then it goes to the border and all their stuff. But I think the future versus past. He's an old man who wants to bring us back to 1950, where the elders from Footloose decide what women can do with their body, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Now he's the old guy. I mean, we just drummed a guy out of the presidential race who was already the preemptive nominee for being too old. Well, now the too old monster.

potentially can turn to Trump. Now, visually, he doesn't send the same age vibe, but he still has his moments. So the generational change thing is powerful. And the who's on whose side? Trump's on Trump's side. I'm on your side, which they telegraph here. So anyway, I give it four donkeys. And I want to get to the DEI stuff in a minute, but the Trump people have an ad out too. So why don't we hear their love letter, which they released.

The soundtrack for Kamala's ad is what you'd expect. She's running around in her suit being vice president and doing stuff. The Trump thing opens with a picture of her in a Hawaiian shirt dancing with some other people. They seem to love that thing. That's the visual you see, and then they get to all the parade of horribles. I'm Donald J. Trump, and I approve this message. This is America's border czar, and she's failed us. Under Harris, over 10 million illegally here.

A quarter of a million Americans dead from Fetlar. Brutal migrant crimes. And ISIS now here. Do you have any plans to visit the border? You haven't been to the border. And I haven't been to Europe. I don't understand the point that you're making. Kamala Harris failed. Weak, dangerously liberal. There you go. I think Trump wrote that one himself. Bob, what's your take? I'm kind of surprised we didn't hear the great

late Arthur J. Finkelstein's too liberal, too often, too long or whatever. Go right for the liberal thing rather than border czar. So it seems to me to be a little clumsy, but I may be, even though I'm an ad maker by trade and a biased observer. What's your take on that spot? I think it's more of a base motivator for Republicans. I mean, the immigration issue galvanizes so many Republican voters and Trump people.

But on the issue of the border, it's complicated, too. I mean, for Republicans, Trump's proposing mass deportations. Should he win? And that's gotten a lot of people alarmed on the left. So, yes, she's going to have to answer. She's going to be defined whether she likes it or not, as the borders are by Republicans, even though she continues to say she was someone working on migration issues and not the borders are in any formalized way.

But that's kind of Washington talk. At the end of the day, immigration is seen as an economic issue by many voters as much as anything. And if she's connected with the border, which is seen as having a crisis moment, it's not politically helpful. But Trump's hard line also is not always a political winner in the eyes of some voters I've spoken with. But it's powerful in getting Republicans out to vote because they really see the border as something that's porous and needs to be addressed.

Gee, Martin, I thought it was kind of clumsy, too, in execution. You know, generally simple is better. And I think they overplayed their hand a bit by opening with the gratuitous Hawaiian shirt thing. Maybe you end on that.

but you instantly polarized the viewer when you go for the insult as your first image. What was your take? It's a ham and egg-er, right? I mean, it's a short order breakfast. It's not a five-course meal at George Sank. Look, I think he's going to need better spots. I'm a little surprised that they're doing the predictable thing

British play liberal. She's so liberal. Because I think where Trump's more natural place, and this is risky, too, because it's condescending and patronizing, but I think his more natural place, and I think perhaps the more powerful argument where Trump will land, Mike, is going to, she wouldn't intimidate the bad guys around the world. They wouldn't be scared of her. They would laugh at her. Yeah.

That's who Trump is. And you can see him going there. It's a matter of when. You think she could stand up to the tough guys in Beijing and Moscow? They would mock her. You know, I could just see Trump going there. And it's a matter of when, not if. Yeah.

Yeah. I just thought, you know, the first spot generally in a campaign where you define is Kamala Harris, 20 years in politics. Where does she stand? Boom. Kind of like the McCormick spot in Pennsylvania. And I think Brad Todd did where you take some clips and you start to paint the picture. So I will give that spot only one and a half orange wigs, uh, for effectiveness. Now the definition war continues. I think there are two big events coming. Um,

But before we get into that, I want to get back to DEI. So one thing, I'm watching Kamala's campaign, and one of my little yardsticks is the Obama guys were very shrewd and very, very disciplined about never letting his campaign be defined by race. They knew they got that for free. And he got excitement and organic power, but he always spoke of the American whole, etc., etc.,

And I think she's trying the same thing. Do you think I'm worried? And this is where the DEI issue comes in, because she's got to handle it in an appropriate but all-America way or it'll degenerate to that. And I don't think that's to her advantage. How do you think they're doing on that? Either one of you guys out of the box. Erase is an issue that's kind of been at the fore.

of a lot of our discussions in American politics for the last 15, 20 years, even if it's not generally the first issue discussed. I mean, you think about Trump in 2011, 2012, being a birther, questioning President Obama's country and credentials, widely seen as a racist attack by Obama's allies and many Democrats and some Republicans.

And so they look at this talk of DEI and they see blatant, if not overt, racism from the GOP in terms of bringing to the fore her rates. I mean, diversity, equity, inclusion by citing DEI is in some way a reference to a race and gender issue.

And now Republicans like J.D. Vance have been talking about how she's someone who has been collecting a government check as a career politician in his views. And he's framing her as someone who is part of this political class. You have Trump, who's taken very personal shots at Harris, calling her dumb as a rock soon after she landed as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

And the fact that she comes from San Francisco, the liberal bastion in this country, it all feeds into this Republican collective focus on DEI. But I think there's a political charge there that's both it might excite Republicans who think they can frame her as someone who is somehow not worthy of the nomination or presidency. But there's a political risk.

Because wading into the territory of diversity, race, ethnicity, gender in 2024 and not having a very coherent argument that doesn't make it in any way seem to some voters to be racist provides enormous political risk as well as maybe an opportunity to take a pot shot.

Totally. Mike, it also opens the door, I think, for Harris to, you know, take a friggin swing off of a batting practice pitch to use a political cliche. Look, this is why.

She can say, don't tell me about the American dream. Don't tell me about the promise of America. I've lived it. Nobody knows how great this country is like either. Here's my story. Immigrant parents from Jamaica and India who met here because they were chasing the American dream.

I had untold opportunities. Where else in the world could this happen but here? She can wrap herself in the flag and push back against the DEI stuff and subtly, subtly send a message to the identity crowd and her party, too. And it's such an obvious opportunity. Yeah, exactly. Go big and post. I mean, I think it's all part of the future past. Donald Trump still lives.

in a long gone America where women stayed home and cleaned the floors, men made the decisions and everything was defined in an awful way by race. Uh, we, you know, we're moving blah, blah, blah. Um, and her story. Exactly. And I think,

because she's going to have a cheering crowd on her side, just like some of the Republican luckheads that would love to have a big DEI fight. And I think that's a disadvantage to her if that totally defines her campaign. And the Republicans being arsonists are going to always try to go there. All right, we're going to leave for a minute to pay the power bill, and then we'll be right back.

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One is the convention, which is coming up, which is being pivoted. And second is the VP pick. Now, I'm not a big believer that people vote for VP, but who you choose sends a message about you.

So she's got a big choice coming. It's going to get covered like the Super Bowl. The conventional wisdom is the three finalists. And by the way, I think none of them are the best choice, but I'll pitch my idea later. Our governor, Tim Walz, is kind of a plain-spoken former Army Reserve sergeant, master sergeant, former teacher, kind of a traditional liberal Democrat, served in Congress, now popular governor of Minnesota.

where my in-laws are, so I'm not going to mockingly mispronounce it anymore. Great state, wonderful people. And Josh Shapiro, who's the Action Jackson moving and doing young governor of all-important Pennsylvania. Then Mark Kelly, fighter pilot astronaut from also the swing state of Arizona. How do you guys do the scorecard or your take on that? And then any other ideas you have, because I'm going to pitch one. Bob, why don't you take the first shot?

Well, it seems pretty conventional because it's such a compressed time period for her to make a pick that she's going to go with someone like Tim Walz or Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona or Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Look, it's a real question whether someone can bring a state along.

I mean, everyone talks about Johnson in 60. Kennedy picks Johnson, even though he didn't love Johnson personally, but Texas was needed. Could Josh Shapiro bring along Pennsylvania? Look, if she could run up the score in Philadelphia on her own and Pittsburgh and some parts of the state and Shapiro helps kind of solidify Pennsylvania and she can win the election by winning Pennsylvania, he's worthwhile as a pick. He's an effective communicator.

He has kind of that modern Democratic cadence, very much in the line of former President Obama and how he articulates the issues goes after the opposition. Kelly has a great biography, married to Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot, astronaut, military veteran, Navy veteran, excuse me, Air Force, I believe. And, um,

Long story short, I think there's also a lot of opportunity for her to take a bit of a political risk. Could she go with someone from the business community? Could she go with someone in the cabinet who's a great communicator like Buttigieg? There's a lot of options here, but because it's such a tight window, I see her moving more in the traditional direction. I wouldn't be surprised if it's Senator Kelly. I think the Democrats want to build, and Jonathan's done a lot of reporting on this over the years, to try to do some building in the Sun Belt and bring that into play.

Bob is being generous to Governor Shapiro. He sounds like he's doing an Obama impression sometimes. But two octaves higher. I saw him yesterday screaming into the mic, and I was like, pal, we have a thing called the amplifier. But still, he's a contender, no doubt. I will say this in defense of Shapiro, who I know Bob knows well from their shared Southeast PA roots.

I went to the inauguration in January of 23 of two of the new governors, Westmore and Merrill and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. They were inaugurated the same week. I did a fun column. Folks can find it at Politico about these two new Democratic governors from the Mid-Atlantic.

Shapiro knew the lyrics to the Black National Anthem, Lift Every Voice and Sing, which not a lot of white pals know. Don't claim to know the lyrics. Shapiro sang along to the Black National Anthem during his inaugural and was almost like dancing a little bit, too. So it comes by naturally, Bob. The dancing was probably the mistake. I've heard him give a speech. I've never seen him dance, but I'm betting the short side of that. But go ahead.

So he comes by it naturally. Look, he is somebody who I think, let's be totally candid, just talk. Nobody else is going to hear this. I know. If Kamala Harris takes a survey and it comes back and she's down outside the margin of error in Pennsylvania, I think she'll face immense pressure to pick Josh Shapiro.

Now, if she's more competitive in her internal polling than that, I think Bob is right. She may have the freedom to go to Minnesota and take a Wallace or even Arizona and get Kelly. Wallace kind of reminds me of Doug Burgum, who kind of worked his way onto the short list in a pretty short period of time.

He kind of out of the blue, wasn't known super well nationally. But Wallace is a talented guy on TV. He's got a hell of a progressive record in Minnesota. He has authenticity, but he's also a progressive.

You know, he has a moderate vibe, but he's on the left side of the equation. And that hasn't really been noticed. Which for Democrats is often the sweet spot. Totally moderate, but progressive in a way that's not going to alienate their base. I think Wallace gets you that. Elliott, I think, is somebody with enormous potential because the resume just jumps off the page.

And I think it's somebody who could help on the border in a border state because that's going to be the top issue that that obviously Trump hits Harris on. And one other point about Kelly that one of his allies made to me and tried to sort of sell Kelly, and that is he's used to playing a secondary role.

for a female politician because his wife is Gabby Giffords. And so he was never the star actor. He was always the supporting guy.

And so he's used to playing the number two. Yeah, no, that makes sense. He's not much of a performer, though. No, no, he could be president tomorrow. And I don't know. I think they're all decent choices, but they're all conventional political calculation choices. And I still remember when the Romney-Ryan ticket not only couldn't carry Wisconsin, they couldn't carry Paul's congressional district where he was popular.

I think Vance's military record, though, Vance is a Marine. Yeah, that's a good point. And I just double-checked this. Mark Kelly...

not only a naval aviator, but flew many, many combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. So he brings, you know, combat experience from Desert Storm beyond just being an astronaut, husband, Gabby Giffords. And when you're running, if you're facing a 39-year-old from the industrial Midwest who rode Hillbilly Elegy and is a Marine, a retired Marine, uh,

Then that has to figure into the calculus for Harris, because the one time that people are going to really see this nominee is at that debate. Right. And he can go on offense on the border. He's a border state senator, you know, et cetera, et cetera. But you want the theory. You want Pete. Well, I'll make I don't think they're going to do it, but but I'll make my pitch, which our listeners heard last week, and then they won't have to hear it anymore. The big message is what counts.

And so when you pick somebody from a state because you're trying to edge that state by half a point, it's all the political calculation. But if the rocket fuel of Harris is

Future, not past. Trump has old ideas, old biases. He's an old guy. And we move forward. There's an argument for Buttigieg, I think. One, he's the best communicator in the party. And second, he sends the new change message better than anybody else. And he's a politician from what we call Michiana, the Michigan-Indiana border. And culturally, he'd play really well. Now, I know the rep is, oh, my God, we can't nominate a gay guy.

But my point of view is I want to meet the voter who says, I'm fine with the African-American progressive from Oakland. It's the gay man I'm freaking out over. I actually think it's kind of like Clinton-Gore. They're similar, which has an accretive power. And let me, because we played everybody else at the top, I want to play a quick clip of Buttigieg on Fox News, and then you guys can tell me I'm crazy. The false message of the RNC...

was that this is leading to an increase in crime. And I think it's really important that we talk about crime. - Well, you don't just feel the cases that have been very high profile about people. - Of course, of course. - If they had not been in this country illegally, people would still be alive. - This is my point, right? Trying to make people think that crime is up

when crime is down under Joe Biden and crime was up under Donald Trump. Now, I don't know how often that gets reported on this network. So if you're watching this at home, do yourself a favor and look up the data. Well, we invite that. Great. So if you look this up at home, you will know that crime went down under Biden and crime went up under Trump. And I think the violent crime for sure. So I think the really important thing to ask is why would America want to go back to the higher crime that we experienced under Donald Trump?

So my point is, you know, he's the terminator. Let him go terminate and bet on the big message that makes you, if you do it right, win everywhere. That said, I think they're conventional and nobody gets fired in the room for saying, wow, we ought to win Pennsylvania. So pick the popular governor there, even though the history shows the in-state picks, you know, it doesn't hurt you, but it's hardly the miracle elixir. So tell me I'm nuts.

Mike, I'm just sad that you've given up on Gina Raimondo so soon. No, I'm for her. But she's too good, too good to be picked. And, you know, this actually brings up something real. Labor doesn't like her. That's her problem, the Democratic Party. And Labor is not so crazy about Shapiro. The teachers union is kind of going after him. And they're happier with Waltz. So it'll be interesting to see how that works.

The trades like Shapiro, but the teachers aren't terribly enamored. Um, well, I think I have the Romando in the same bucket as Pete. Uh, you know, hard to spell last name. Yes, but no, not just that, but like who would reject the top of the ticket, uh, because of a gay man or an Italian American woman. Right. I just, I can't, I can't see it. Uh, and both of them have, have Harvard degrees too, to go with that. Um,

I actually, in the year 2024, don't think the Pete thing is all that politically crazy. I just think that the VP is a pretty conventional political actor, is thrown onto the hottest of hot seats with 100 days to go, is going to make a pretty straightforward conventional calculation here. Yeah, I would bet they do that. I'm just always pitching the big move. Call me Rommel. I just think there's also the possibility of a surprise here. I mean, we heard Gary Peter's name floated.

Yeah. Military veteran, close to labor, industrial quest. Michigan. So it's clear to me whether the Peters thing is real or not, which I'm not really clear it is, but it's clear that they're casting a wider net because they need to hit, in this tight time period, they need to hit that labor mark. They need to hit military. So, you know, with Roy Cooper bowing out of it, Gary Peters kind of floating into the mix. Yeah.

I still think it's fluid with a few days to go. Looks to me like Roy Cooper's decided to be first in the race for attorney general rather than fifth in the race for VP. It might be a shrewd move. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

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This 25% off offer is their best yet, and it will not last long. Remember, with Helix, better sleep starts now. So last topic on all this definition stuff. When we get to Labor Day, and Kamala Harris has been highly, though not totally, defined in one way or another. We'll see which campaign kind of wins it. I think they're doing well, the Harris folks, right now. And I think the ad was a good move.

Is Trump going to be able to handle running against a woman of color? Or will he just instinctively overplay his hand? I want to play a little clip of Trump who's kind of been searching for his angle. I mean, he had it easy with Biden. Old Joe, Joe's old, blah, blah, blah. Two elderly white guys battling away. Now he's in a generational fight, a cultural fight. California is alien to Trump.

And is he going to be able to get his tuning fork out and get messaging that resonates? Or is he just going to do, like he's done so far, blunt hammer, which may not be his smartest move? Let's listen to Trump on the stump talking about Kamala Harris a few days ago. Bernie Sanders is a major lunatic, okay? She's worse than Bernie Sanders. Now, she's trying to come back. She got rid of the laugh. I noticed I haven't seen that crazy laugh that she gets. She's crazy.

That laugh, that's the laugh of a crazy person. But I noticed that she's not using that laugh anymore. Somebody convinced her, don't laugh, just don't laugh. Don't laugh under any circumstances. I like laughter, but sometimes. Not her laughter. So, doesn't work. Yeah, it's personal attacks. It sounds like he's still in the primary, where maybe he'll never be able to leave.

What do we think? You know, here was the guy with a sort of pure natural gift at nicknames, at finding the weakness in his opponents in the 2016 primary. Yeah.

even somewhat with Hillary and Biden and the two generals. Well, I just don't hear something effective or even, uh, or even crafting, uh, in that she's a far left lunatic and her laugh is annoying. That's baseline. That's like, that's not adding a new vote. Uh,

I just find it that, yeah, I mean, he seems plummeted because his go-to, I think, with black women is typically that they're dumb or they're racist. And like, those are tough lines. I mean, they're offensive and it's clear what he'd be getting at. Right. So he doesn't have a lot of room to work with here. I spoke to Trump the day Biden, President Biden decided to get out that Sunday and he

And I said to him, how does this change the race? Does this change how you see the race? And he goes, no, come on. He said, no. He said, I'm going to run against the Biden record. She's part of it. She's terrible in his view. And he went on and on about how she she can't escape what he called the Biden-Harris record.

on immigration, on the economy. And he kind of alluded to how it's going to be a rough race. And he runs rough races. I mean, we all remember Lion Ted, Little Marco. I mean, I think the Harris boomlet and the Harris moment is real in the sense that voters get this kind of fresh political figure, even though she is well known to Washington. She hasn't been at the fore of the political scene. But

And maybe she can fend off Trump like a prosecutor and deftly handle everything. But Trump is brutal more than anyone I've ever covered. I mean, Murphy was tough when he was working with Lamar, but nothing like Donald Trump. I'm a pussycat. Yeah, I think Trump projects all his crazy rage. And that's kind of a segue to my next question about Trump.

There's been a lot of praise, and I think fairly well earned, for Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, who are kind of the two heads at the Trump, the head of the Trump campaign. But I've always had the theory that they're doing a good job because Trump's always been ahead.

So you basically have to rent the soccer stadium and book Trump in there and make sure there are a lot of red hats and, you know, all of which is work. And they played their internal Republican politics very well. But what happens when Trump starts reading polls for the first time where he's losing?

You know, after the convention, when she if they do a good convention and I would bet good money, Stephanie Cutter will orchestrate a good convention. She's a couple of points ahead. And Trump goes into wild man mode and wants to scream at her about reparations or whatever and go totally racial. And they're smart enough to know this doesn't win it for us, sir. Are they out the window when we see Corey Lodowski? I mean, I want to see if they can ride the bucking bronco.

Because they've had the sleepy, you know, walking kids ride horse so far. They have the trail ride. They have the trail ride. They've been doing the trail ride. And, okay, you want to be a jockey. Now we're going to take Secretariat, shoot them full of amphetamines, and give them 100,000 volts. Ride that. What do we think? Because that could be great entertainment for the political consulting class in September.

They've been riding Murphy the donkey here. It was a very sedate, slow-moving beast. Yeah, Bob knows this well. Look, Trump is for you, and he's loyal as long as Trump's doing well. And the second there's turbulence and the second there's problems, he ain't taking the hit, all right? He's not going to say, well, sorry, guys, that was my fault. I should have blurted out that asinine statement. Of course not.

He'll blame somebody else. So, you know, this is the risk is that, you know, Susie and Chris have been insulated because Trump rolled through the primary. He was right through the general until the Dems dump. That was Don Biden. Look, I think it'll be a great test of.

Can they get Trump to do the poll-approved messaging against Harris, or is he going to give in to temptation, Mike, as you alluded to? This is the best test yet of the new Trump regime. There's been a short quiz, because there he is at the convention, and he's on the proctor doing the poetry about the bullet whizzing by and

You know, the kinder, gentler Trump. And nobody is stopping or throwing chairs or yelling, lock her up. And it freaks him out. So he goes off prompter.

and does his angry Castro thing for three hours, blowing an opportunity to get a week of media coverage on the new and improved smart strategic Trump. So we've had one of those, and he failed it simply because he didn't have the crowd response he wanted. Can you imagine, by the way, if he had just retold the story of the attempted assassination and said, with that, I say to you, make America great again, waved his tea and walked off the stage? It would have been like...

People would have been confused, perplexed, but people would have said, like, it's Picasso, it's modern art. It was incredibly beautiful and well done. I got a text from somebody in convention ops, which is a whole culture of the Republican Party. A bunch of pros have been around forever, and some of them have been purged now by Trump world because they probably wouldn't have gone for the Vegas backdrop there. But somebody said he set two records tonight. He set the record for longest windbag speech ever.

But he also set the record for hanging around on stage after the balloon dropped the longest. Well, we had old delegates feigning in the back row and the whips imploring people, don't leave the effing hall. So, you know, he needs it. It's a drug. And so he just stayed there forever. I don't know, Bob. After midnight. What do you think? You know Trump. I've met him once briefly and unpleasantly.

But you have a better grip on his psyche than I do. How do you think he'll handle the bumps if he has a rocky September? By the way, Democrats, you've raised $200 million, 60% of it from new money. Right now, spend $150 million of it. Flood the damn airwaves from here to Labor Day and buy a lead to destabilize his campaign in the key states. By the way, Bob, go ahead.

You know, Trump's the way he campaigns is not obviously traditional and everyone knows that. But what I mean is he specifically has kind of a running conversation with voters in his base. That is his campaign. So it's not about ads, events, markers, policy rollouts, nothing that other campaigns I've covered over the years.

It's just this running conversation. And he doesn't expect everyone to be flowing in and out of it, but he creates this cadence and language where everyone who's kind of plugged into his movement knows what he's referring to. And if he as long as he seems authentic in the running conversation he has with them, he kind of has them in his grip. There's because they're part of the club. They speak the same political language.

They see things the same way. They nod along with him. And there's kind of a belief in his inner circle that at the end of the day, he can keep having this kind of ramshod, rambling conversation with his base for a long time. But as long as he really gins up the energy in October and early November and runs for governor in three or four states in the final two to three weeks and has a searing, harshly critical message against Harris, he can win. And...

You know, look, that will take focus and dedication. Kellyanne Conway and Bannon had him do that in 16 and he won. He did it when in 2020, in some ways, people close to him felt he was distracted at the end, wasn't running a focus, focus campaign, didn't make a coherent message on mail-in voting and how to handle the issues of the pandemic. But you're looking at a candidate who is very seasoned as a national politician. He has an assassination attempt. He has

He has a changeover in the Democratic ticket. You don't see this kind of rupture in his circle. And even the VP pick, I mean, Vance has created some social media problems for him. He's being mocked and ridiculed by a lot of Democrats for different statements he's made. But for Trump, the VP pick has never been something he thinks is that important. It's just something to be kind of added to the ticket. It's part of the process.

He waited until the absolute last moment to make the decision, and it wasn't with a ton of fanfare. So with Trump, even though he has the paper-thin skin in terms of slights and remembers a lot, he also has a very thick skin in not getting too hung up on any certain political moment, and he carries on. And that's going to be a challenge for Vice President Harris in the sense that he –

He will hit back very hard. He's not going to react in any kind of predictable way. And, you know, calling him weird and the Republicans weird, that's the new Democratic refrain. I think it's more of a base motivator for Democrats. But, you know, Trump people kind of shrug it off. I mean, he's he's been weird in his own ways, nontraditional, whatever you want to call it for a long time. Yeah, that's a good point. His weirdness is his brand.

because he's not part of the political system, yada, yada, yada. We should probably talk for a minute about Vance and his war against cat ladies. You know, the cocktail party chatter now is, will Trump dump Vance? I don't think he will because Trump cannot admit a mistake. I do think this will mean Trump turns on Vance quicker than I thought he would. I always thought he would because there's only one sun in the Trump orbit, S-U-N.

And so I thought that if Vance started doing well, Trump would turn on him. Now he's becoming the laughingstock, which we know Trump hates. What future do you pretend for the vice president of candidacy of Vance? Can he have a comeback, a reset, or are they going to be sending him to Marquette, Michigan in the middle of the night for an airport rally now? Is he going to be submerged?

Do it negative on the U-Pers, Mike. I can't believe it. I love the U-Pers. I love the U-Pers. I want some pierogi. A good Michigan guy like you. Yeah, exactly. Send all the pasties to Murphy. 6% of the vote. You can get away with it. And so they, but a fun fact about the U-Pers, they call the lower peninsula guys like you, Mike, trolls because you live below the bridge. Isn't that great? No, no. They secretly want to go join Wisconsin or Minnesota. They got all kinds of scary plans up there. Yeah.

Anyway, what do we think? What does the future hold for J.D. Cat Lady Vance? He's going to have a lifetime supply of Purina coming his way, I'm sure, by some troll. He's picking a troll pretty soon. You know, I'm waiting for the Meow Mix parody commercial, by the way. I've seen the ABBA one that the Walsh family does on YouTube. You should check it out. But there is a...

Meow, meow, meow mix-up, parody thing of Vance. But anyway, getting off the internet memes we're all addicted to, and I'm not even going to go there with couches and Brett Turun. No, let's stick to the feline. Let's stick to the feline. What happens to Vance, and how do you try to reset him if you're Trump? He's a talented enough fellow, and obviously ambitious enough, that I think you'll try to find his level set. And...

He also is shrewd enough to know that Trump's going to dump on him and those leaks are going to come soon because Trump, like I said earlier, is never going to take the blame for anything. So he'll start pinning the blame on Vance. It'll be interesting to see how Vance handles that.

I just I can't see a scenario where he doesn't have a decent debate because he's a shrewd enough fellow on policy and politics that he can move his feet. But what is he bringing to Trump that Trump didn't already have?

Maybe they do plant him in Western PA and he goes back and forth between Johnstown and Erie and just tries to vacuum up the deer hunter vote. I don't know if that is something that is...

getting Trump more than like the 65 to 70 percent he was getting on a lot of those counties already. Yeah, I agree. But part of the problem is the pop culture machine has grabbed him as a chew toy. It's like a lion playing with a dead muskrat, shaking it around. So by the time the debate comes, he's going to be so defined in a Palin-esque way as a joke. They've got to have a strong reset plan.

I don't know. I think, I think Vance is, he's a play for the Charlie Kirks of the world, for Donald Trump Jr., for Tucker Carlson. He's, look, Trump has always said to people privately that the base is everything. Expanding the base rather than expanding into the center is necessary. That he believes there are non-voters who are susceptible to falling into his political coalition rather than trying to eat into any kind of democratic group. And so,

If he had picked Burgum, he would have had a mini revolt, not fatal, but of some of these younger types who want one of their own to be seen as ready to take on this movement and make it not just about Trump and this crossroads in American history, but about the future of nationalism, populism, Trumpism, whatever you want to call it. And so Vance is a nod toward that. But are voters going to—this election's about Harris and Trump.

It's not going to be a VP pick. Maybe Sarah Palin was the last time a VP pick really became a huge national issue. But that was more about readiness for the presidency versus kind of comments viewed as extreme by the opposition. Yeah, but I agree with that. But he's catalytic. If he becomes the national clown, Trump will react to it in ways that will not, I think, be smart.

He may fuel the fire by kind of turning on... We'll see. Yet more destabilizing stuff inside the campaign. All right, let's hit the orchestra. If you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do is email it to us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com, or you can call up our phone number in the back of Axelrod's Off-Track Betting Parlor in Chicago. The number...

773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. Okay, we have a question from The Mysterious. Somebody did not leave their name. Mysterious, yes, I'm sure it's a Chicago voter on multiple ballots. Let's hear it. Okay, my question is, why haven't we heard anything about Tim Ryan?

former congressman, who ran against J.D. Vance and did pretty good and probably would have beat Vance if Schumer had helped him out. I'm just saying, what about him for VP? I think that was Tim Ryan calling in with a disguised voice. Good question. He's an impressive guy, but he lost, and losers don't get promoted. Well, I covered Ryan extensively in 2022.

You know, he might be used by the Democrats, but, you know, he's he's created some friction in the party. And Jay Martin knows this so well. He ran against Pelosi for speaker. He was critical of Biden, then became a supporter of Biden, then dropped against Biden, said he should drop out of the race. So he's seen as kind of a wild card, even though he has that populist appeal in Ohio. I expect him to have some TV hits and some some appearances, but I don't see him getting a huge speaking slot at the convention or anything like that.

Okay, this question is for Jaymart from Clint. Clint wants to know, I am wondering how it was possible for the Democrats to get their act together with lightning speed after President Biden announced he would not be running. Who made that happen? Was Kamala making calls? Is there a smoke-filled room somewhere in the back alleys of Chicago where the decision was made? No, it was all on Hacks on Tap. You guys weren't listening from the last month and a half?

Hey, it was my hard-hitting editorial op-ed in the New York Times. That's what changed everything. In all seriousness, I vividly recall the episode you guys had David Plouffe on, the week of the debate, and Murphy, to his everlasting credit, said, I know you guys don't believe it, but if this debate really goes south, and I mean really goes south, there will be talk of dumping Biden from the ticket. So Murphy, the prophet, he said it. And I was laughed at and ridiculed. They...

Props as deserved. It was my old Nikki Haley predictions or that Trump wouldn't be the nominee that hung me. But thank you, Jay, Martha. That's very kind. So this is something I've written about my column for a year and a half now. The Democratic Party is organized entirely around opposition to Donald Trump. It is effectively the not Trump party.

party. That is the biggest mobilizer, unifier, fundraiser, and motivator for Democrats today, stopping the orange man. Biden was a vehicle against Trump really from 2019 until about 9.30 p.m. on June 27th of this year, okay? Once Biden stopped being the vehicle—and

It was just a question of how it was done. It wasn't going to be messy or was it going to be smooth? But it wasn't a question of if it was going to happen. It was a question of how it was going to happen. Because Biden, for all of his incredible political service in this moment for Democrats, was a vehicle against Trump.

Once he stopped serving that purpose, that was it. They had to find a new vehicle. And I think to come full circle back from the start of this conversation, that's why Democrats are so exultant now, because they were worried, oh my gosh, Trump is coming back. Our guy can't win. And now they have hope again, because Democrats are consumed with stopping Trump. And that was Biden's role. And once he couldn't play it anymore, that was it. The how it happened,

I think we're going to have to wait until after the campaign to get the whole story. But clearly there was an intervention among senior Democrats to nudge Biden off the ticket. It took a while. It wasn't easy, but he finally did it. And the party rejoiced. And everybody was too exhausted to go with the contest. Just go with Kamala. Mike, this is a huge point. If Biden drops out that weekend, that following June 29th weekend, going into the July 4th holiday weekend,

If Biden drops out that weekend, I think this is a different nominating process because I think that the Nancy Pelosi's of the world would have carried the day and they would have argued in public for a contested nomination. Absolutely. But you're right. A month later, it was too much, too chaotic, too overwhelming of Democrats. They just wanted to get somebody to rally.

For Bob Costa from Keyshore, if you were managing the Harris campaign, how would you deploy President Biden between now and November to be most effective? Great question. Well, I don't think we've discussed President Biden enough. I mean, he's still president of the United States. Still has months left in his term. He was the presumptive nominee until a few weeks ago.

And I think this is one of the biggest questions of the campaign. Sure, he may not be the most sought-after communicator in the party, but he has enormous political capital. He has a 50-plus year record in politics of Democratic coalition building. And so I think how you deploy him really matters. Is he out there making sure his voters show up, or is there just kind of a default expectation that they show up? I think Biden...

in is underrated in times of how he's really nurtured the labor groups, how he's kept together kind of the as you put it, Mike, the lunch pail Democrats, working people, middle class people who might not love the Democratic Party, but kind of like the idea of the Democratic Party as a workers party.

his effectiveness on the trail is going to largely be how the Harris campaign wants to use them. Or do they lean more into, as we've seen so far, some pop culture figures like Charlie XCX, the brat theme, Megan, the stallion, the singer coming to an event in Atlanta.

Where is Biden going to be? He was at the LBJ library in late July making a speech about the Civil Rights Act. But does he keep going out there for her in ways that are high profile? And what kind of role does he have at the convention? I just think that that is there's so much interest in Harris and Trump, understandably. But the Biden question to me really.

really looms. And I know Jaymar took a student of Biden as well. You know, that's a good point. He did a pretty slick job yesterday of injecting a kind of political debate over the Supreme Court into the campaign by calling for term limits on justices of 18 years and a new ethics rule. So now it's a fightable issue. And I think she can get a little offense going on that. Jaymar, why don't you take us home with two cents on the Biden rule? Because Bob's right. We should have talked about it more.

The super surrogate of all super surrogates. The city president who himself was the nominee until a half an hour before the election. It's an incredible role and a fantastic walk-off, by the way, for Biden. I always saw it.

that Biden would feel pressure and temptation to walk away in the second term and make Kamala Harris the first female president in American history, because it would have been a crowning achievement, not just for her, but for Biden himself. Now he has the chance in 95 days to make that history himself, which he will be deeply proud of, but which will also help him, I think, even the score with Barack Obama, his friend, but also, yes, his rival.

And somebody how he can now say that he helped create the first black female president in American history. And I think put himself, Joe Biden, on a different plane in American history. Yeah. You know damn well that's going through his head. He can also move the agenda of the presidential race in huge ways, depending on stuff that could happen. He sends two carriers to the Mediterranean if Hezbollah escalates.

China, you know, he's still got the big job and he can set every front page in the country and the candidates have to respond to that. So we shouldn't write off the sheer power he has to affect the campaign. Well, gentlemen, thank you so much. You're both pros. You've both written incredible books. Go, hackaroos, to hacksontap.com slash bookclub.

to check out the fabulous, I'm moving faster, so I won't go through all the titles and all the stuff, but they're both must-reads on the last election cycle. And we make over four cents on Amazon when you buy them on our book club. They're both highly recommended.

Gentlemen, you're great hacks. Thank you for pinching in. What an A panel we had. And I will be back with David Axelrod next week to talk more about this amazing moment we find ourselves in in American politics. Thank you, guys. Au revoir. Go USA. Go USA. Thanks, guys. Thank you.