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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. But Arnold Palmer was all man. And I say that in all due respect to women, and I love women. But this guy, this guy, this is a guy that was all man. This man was strong and tough. And I refuse to say it, but when...

He took showers with the other pros. They came out of there. They said, oh, my God, that's unbelievable. I had to say it. I had to say it. We have women that are highly sophisticated here. Well, yes. Yes. You know, they say they love. They say this race is a game of inches. And I guess he.

Don't leave us listeners. Let us have a pass on that one. Bring you guys up short. The thing is, if you give Axe Rod an inch, he'll take a mile. That's the thing. No, no, exactly. It's a long road down the pun alley here. Yes. Sorry, I went to great lengths just to tell a pun. But anyway, so Diff Joke. Heilman and Murphy.

Hey, guys. Hi. Good morning. We're inside of two weeks in a race that nobody will honestly predict. And I doubt we're going to do that here. One thing about that clip, though, that was Trump in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, home of the great Arnold Palmer, apparently greater than we even knew. Yeah. Oh, my goodness gracious. Yeah.

He walks softly and carried a big stick. Yes. I don't want to get into all the creepiness of the whole deal, but my question to you guys is this is way too late. We're down the long shaft here, pal. Everybody's getting on the act here. Somebody hand me my five wood. Yeah.

Not on camera. Anyway, so the the question is, is Trump losing it? Yeah. I mean, but and because they we've said it a million times here and it seems more evident now than ever. The campaign has one strategy. It's very disciplined. It's, I think, probably pretty well conceived.

And he he's going out there doing performance art every day and taking them in a different direction. So, A, does that hurt them? And B, now the Trump campaign is focusing more and more on these things. I'm not the Trump campaign, the Harris campaign. And is that a good strategy for them or is just Trump being Trump kind of baked in the cake?

Yeah, I don't think Trump has strategies. I think he has urges. And so he goes out and does the old comic, you know, screw the casino. I'm going all night. New material. And that's why one of the visual signatures of a Trump rally is people sneaking out at the hour mark. He has a huge hammer in.

which is obviously four years ago, you were better off inflation. These guys screwed up the economy and I was thinking of going for the choke there, but he won't use it instead. I mean, there's some perfunctory stuff in his speeches, but instead he does the, the, the wander, which is,

Fun for him. You might say therapy for him. But no, it's not an optimal campaign. I would score since the Fox interview, which was problematical in some ways, but fundamentally, I think. You're talking about Harris' interview with Fox. Harris' Fox interview. She's upshifted. Now she's a candidate. She's out there earning it, and she's pretty darn good on the stump, a lot better than she was. Well, Trump's meandering, and that's not how you want to close a race.

Heilman, I think that that is a part of what's happened is that she is doing less signification of herself, you know, as one of us. And she's more in the attack mode now. And she's more comfortable in the attack mode.

Well, I got to say, I have a hammer and I'm going to use it. And I'll tell you that my favorite thing about that whole Trump thing has nothing to do with the penile element of it. I just like when Trump says, I refuse to say it and then says it. It's like one of my favorite Trump constructions throughout this whole podcast. I'm going to keep saying I refuse to say it, but let me just say exactly what I refuse to say. Did you see him with Howie? Did you see him with Howie Kurtz on Sunday?

Uh, he asked him about, he was pretty tough on him by Fox standards. It was a bone crushing interview, but he asked him about, you know, the dogs and the cats. And, you know, that wasn't true. Why not say it wasn't true. He said, look, that's what someone said that, that, you know, that was, you know, I didn't say it. I just, you know, I mean, that's his, that's his thing.

By the way, I want to make clear to our listeners, you said penile, not penal, which I think is actually what's on his mind. But go ahead. Totally. I interviewed Plouffe last week for my podcast, right? And we talked on last Friday. And Trump had just been on Fox and Friends, where he did a whole long thing about how Harris was...

There was some animal that he claimed that Paris didn't like and all these animals were going to disappear. And then he wandered over to Dan Bongino's show. And I got to say, if you watch the video of that Dan Bongino podcast, Trump looks like absolute hell. I mean, he looked like garbage. It was the day that they canceled a podcast interview and it slipped out that the notion from the Trump campaign said it was because he was exhausted.

And and he was on Bongino and he started talking about Harvey Weinstein being schlonged. And you're and you're thinking about Trump's about Trump again. It's a bit of a one track mind here and not and not the way you go about closing or even starting to ameliorate a gigantic.

gender gap where he's losing by massive historic proportions with women, right? Which is a pretty big thing. And Poff just made the point, which I thought was right, which is, you know,

Presidential candidates canceling interviews in the last couple weeks. Like, you know, I mean, David Axelrod, Mike, you guys both know what it takes to get something on a presidential candidate's schedule. And what has to be wrong for a candidate to cancel something in the last two weeks? And Plouffe said, you know, I think something really funky is going on with Trump. And it points to the notion of, is Trump able to close, even by Trump's standards, is he going to close strong?

in a very, very close race? Who is, if candidate performance matters in a very, very tight presidential race on the margins, which is where this race is going to be won or lost, which of these candidates is in a position to close strong in the last two weeks? Oh, she is. If you look at this as literature...

Right. She's having, she's having that moment where the, the closes about the narrative of the clothes, the drama of it less than you were in Sheboygan, Michigan. Right. And, and I think, you know, you, you look at the two of them. She just, his, his age has exhaustion. And I would say to David, your original question, is he losing it? He lost it a long time ago. It's just becoming more evident now because he's in that moment where what he had in 2016 in the last two weeks was he was a beast and,

He was out there five events a day, just hammering away in a consistent way on a message that would win for him. He's not capable of doing that now. And this is where it's going to really start to show. And she is in a position to really perform well in these last two weeks. Doesn't mean she's going to win, but whose hand would you rather play as a, as a, as a campaign manager, chief strategist, that candidate who's like, like,

coming into their best moment the last two weeks or a Trump's case kind of devolving into his worst. You know, I think she has the advantage. We could have a real call back to age here in the last 10 days, which would be a gift to her. Yeah. Yeah. I just, um, when you are thinking about the people who are hanging out in this race, right. Uh, I, which you mean I decided voters did. Yes. Yeah. I mean, or voters who are sort of loosely, uh,

I mean, there's a small cadre of voters who notionally are one way or the other on this race, but they haven't been paying a hell of a lot of attention. And the question is, what motivates them? And is this our concerns about Trump? What motivates them or are they in? You know, he's an asshole.

Uh, he's, you know, I, I don't like the way he behaves, but I did better because, you know, his job approval rating from his term in office continues to eat, uh, inch up. And, um, so, um, the question is, um, do they need to go more at, um, what the truth is sort of at what do you get from him versus her, uh,

Who's on your side? Or is it the unhinged part that is going to turn this election? Is it just a vibe thing to close with? Because, you know, these are we talk about adjust the airline one degree to tilt the, you know, the outreach in this suburb. These are two elephants falling down a long flight of stairs. Now, this is just a big controlled crash at this point. Most of the vote is in process.

So do you want for those super casual voters who don't really care about politics that much, a final argument which is more of a gloss of new versus old?

Who's out there working? Who's fresh? You know, new is the most powerful word in advertising. So I think kind of the change vibe close of her out working and him out being crazy, which amplifies what's happening right now anyway, is the best ticket to the end rather than more nuanced arguments. I think they found a good balance of he's nuts and he's running on he's nuts.

I would just pound that for the last 2% or 3% here that's out there. Let's listen. Can we listen to—let's just—because these are sort of the heavy-carrying spots. I mean, they have other spots. But these two sort of sum up messaging as we stand here today. So let's first listen to—she has a 60 up. Let's listen to that. I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message. Thank you.

Donald Trump makes a lot of promises, but we can be sure of one thing. If he wins, he'll ignore all checks that rein in a president's power. It's all in Trump's Project 2025 agenda. What does that mean for you? Higher cost on groceries, cuts to Social Security and Medicare, more tax breaks for billionaires, and a national abortion ban putting women's health at risk. A second Trump term. More unhinged, unstable, and unchecked.

Love letter. Murphy, as an ad maker, what is your assessment of the ad?

One, I'm glad to see the big career surge for John Dolman, a great character actor who you will remember from The Wire. Voice over, yes. Yeah, who's got a big career in voiceovers, who's doing all this stuff. I don't know about the subtext of it, but he's a great VO talent. I'm kind of lukewarm on it. I think this lemon's been kind of squeezed, but I don't hate it. I think we're at a point now where the paid advertising has limited coverage.

But it does reflect the message. It reflects the message that they believe is the winning message. No, no, the cost of Trump. The number you cited that the memories of Trump are becoming more rose-colored and vis-a-vis the economy, that can beat her. It's always the specter out there. It's less Trump. It's more fire her on the economy. It's bad. It's their fault. It's okay. It's okay. It's the old bag full of crap thrown against the wall. All those things cut. I'm sure they all test well.

So it's okay, but I don't think it's a wonder weapon. I think what she does in the cycle and on the social media visuals every day is the most important thing now. I think they're executing it well. And with the paid, why not pile on him? So, David, I'll turn this question back to you as I, out of my answer to this question, which again, kind of is rests a little bit on this conversation, this relatively long conversation I had with Plouffe. You know, there's these,

These obviously these two voter sets that are left, there's a set of voters who are who are genuinely undecided still amazingly that there's anyone like this just between Trump and Harris. And there's this larger set of voters who are just undecided really between Harris and the couch or Trump in the couch. But really, the group, the group that they are focused on, and you can see this in all the stuff she's doing with Liz Cheney, is essentially.

But never Trump Republicans is soft Republicans, women largely who've been turned off by Trump. They're never going to vote for Trump, but they're not quite sure about Harris. And that's what, you know, the Cheney, this Cheney Road Tour is about. It's going after essentially Nikki Haley voters and their research tells them. And again, I say this is Plouffe's basic frame on this is that their research says to them that those people,

that a message that works with them is to say, is to remind, not just to remind them of how bad Trump was, but to raise the stakes and say, Trump will be way worse in the second term. And the combination of that with the way Trump is performing right now, they are betting that that will turn, again, a very small number of voters, but some voters who are like,

they're either going to stay home or they're going to come out for Harris. And I ask you whether you think, I mean, you're not looking at the amount of data that Plouffe and the Harris campaign is, but does that ring true to you? Because that is the big shift of these last two weeks is they're no longer talking about really about Harris or really just about turning the page. They're really talking much more in a very strike, in a sharper contrast mode of,

a disaster versus a verdict disaster. Here, here's, I will answer. And then I want to hear from Murphy. Who's the target audience of a spotlight, but we can have our own little focus group with Mike Murphy, but suburban, suburban moms in California. I want more details. He's in touch. He's, you know, he's in touch with his feminine side.

But no, listen, I I don't know about that. I respect the fact that they have a lot of research and smart people and bluff. You know, my old partner is as smart as they come. But I don't know. It's I have a feel the voters you're talking about.

are high information voters. And I think if they are motivated by this, they are, if they, they, they're already highly motivated. And I don't know how much there's left in that. Well, I think the voters who are mostly hanging out are younger voters, less, uh, less, uh, you know, lower information voters who are very much, uh,

concerned about the economy. Like I think I said that earlier. And, um, I think that the more populist arguments that she's been making about the middle class, uh, and, uh, about, you know, uh,

I'm for you. He's for him. I think maybe more motivational for those particular voters. Um, so, uh, you know, I watched the Liz Cheney, uh, who I, I agree with everything I heard last night. I watched one of the forums in Wisconsin, uh, with Liz Cheney and, uh, and I want to talk about one aspect of that in a minute after Mike talks, but, um, uh,

I have to say, someone texted me in the middle of it and said, this sounds like a conversation you'd hear in first class. And I thought that was a pretty good observation. And it isn't the people in first class who may be deciding this election. And so that worries me a bit. And the second thing that worries me is,

I don't think they've I think that people have made a judgment about Donald Trump. If this is if it were just an up or down referendum on Donald Trump, I don't think he'd get elected. And he still butts up against his ceiling, which is under 50 percent. The questions they have are about her because she's brand new and they haven't completely. This is the key thing. And so I would be more in the contrast mode.

Between with her and him, and I'd give them a little more information about her, probably around middle class economics and basically being a battler for them and around abortion rights. And I would be doing contrast, contrast, contrast. So they their judgment is they got to pummel Trump.

here to for the reasons that Trump told for that that bluff told you. So, you know, but I'll tell you something. The most irritating people in the world at this stage in a campaign are fat ass consultants who are sitting in the peanut gallery telling them what they should be doing. AM radio. That's the key to Oklahoma.

Yeah, I have to yield to the judgments they're making based on the information they have. But I want to talk to the...

the fallen away Republican voter from typical Republican voter from Hollywood, Mike Murphy. Yes, here I am. I love Liz Cheney. I wish we could take her DNA and inject it into the parliament of cowards that represent 90 percent of the elected Republican federal party right now.

But I think this is not a hill of beans. I think it's public television shit, and I don't think it's going to move casual voter numbers at the end. That said, go ahead and do it. They checked it off. You got to fill the day with events. They got a news cycle. But I think it's limited. I just saw a little private poll in Michigan, which was interesting.

The total thing that decides whether it lands Kamala plus three or Trump plus four is, you know, low turnout voters. And if they show up, she's going to win. If they don't, it's going to be Trump by a mile. So those are very casual voters. And I agree with Axe on this. What do they care about? Stuff costs too much.

And the old guy screwed everything up. And who's the new lady? And that's about it. I don't think Trump is the moving number. So pounding on the risk of him is fine. But she's got to close herself, which means 10 great days on television, drop in the bubble and be in a star. I think that and screaming, I'm here to fix the goddamn economy. And if Joe Biden's feelings are hurt too bad, this is how presidents get elected. You tell the truth and things aren't good.

But I got to make them better. I'm new. I'm fresh. New team, new ideas. I'm on your side. Trump's not. It's a version of what David was just saying. I pound the hell out of that because we're not dealing with the Roman Senate at this point. You got to hit them over the head with simplicity relevant to their life. And what's relevant to their life is what stuff costs. And it costs a lot more. And somebody is going to pay for that. So if she can't break that equation and buy a chance from them is the new thing.

They clip her. So I think all this other nuance, move the airlines, whatever the hell the airplane term is, two degrees and fly above the cloud in Wisconsin, but under it in Pennsylvania, it's all crap. This is brute force close time. So, Mike, here's my question about that, Mike. It's just about that Michigan polling. I find this super fascinating.

interesting is that, I mean, one of the premises of a lot of the strategy on both sides in this campaign is that the coalitions have shifted to the point where

Unlike in the Obama days and for a lot of our professional lives where kind of reliable voters were Democratic voters – sorry, were Republican voters and where irregular voters, casual voters were Democratic voters who you had to worry about turning them out –

The numbers have shown all through this cycle that Trump is more reliant on those voters. And you see that in his gains with Latinos and his gains with black voters and some of his gains with young voters. And Democratic voters have become more like regular, reliable voters because they're the better educated voters. Democrats now kind of dominate college voters. So how does that play in the – what you said just now about the Michigan polls. It's by an extremely good pollster. I've known him a long time.

Who said, by the way, I'm not going to predict this race because we'd have to fill the survey with a lot of questions about demographics and stuff. We bolted this on for a crosstab on something else we were looking at. But it was clear that it's going to be young turnout that will make or break her in Michigan. Other older African-American men, you can break it out into other groups where she needs a lot.

But if you just go to the voter list and survey it and assume a big, juicy presidential turnout, she was ahead. If you start stripping it more to the old Republican off-year model, crunchy old Marine colonels retired, then Trump was doing really well. So it was kind of a back to the future thing. It's tied. But she needs those casual people to feel like there's a bandwagon to jump out of change here, I think, to close it.

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I want to play a little clip from Liz Cheney last night, and she makes a point that I want to explore here because it relates to the discussion we're having.

I certainly have many Republicans who will say to me, "I can't be public." They do worry about a whole range of things, including violence, but they'll do the right thing. And I would just remind people, if you're at all concerned, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody. And there will be millions of Republicans who do that on November 5th, by President Harris.

And Mike, this is Carl Rove. I do a lot of stuff with Carl, you know, on the road. And Carl has been talking about the shy anti-Trump Republican, shy anti-Trump, independent leaning Republican. And that's her. That's what she she was addressing. That alleged. Yeah. Phenomenon. How how how vast is.

A group, do you actually think that is? Is this reality or is this myth? Well, no, I agree with the rover on this in theory. The problem is the Democratic Party nominated somebody who was built in a lab to irk traditional Republicans, which is a progressive party.

modern, secular female from Oakland, California. You know, they didn't. She lives down there with you in L.A. off the freeway here. So I look, I think Trump will underperform Republican normal, which might be enough for her to win the race. It's just a question of how much. And you do.

You know, I know a lot of nose-holding Republicans, and my pitch to them just when I meet them in my real life is, look, four years of a left-of-center Democrat hemmed in by the Republican Senate is a small price to pay to get a real conservative, not populist, Yahoo Republican Party back. So look at it like chemotherapy. You're going to cure the cancer. Yeah, you're going to barf a few times, but net-net, you're way ahead. And I get some resonance from that. And then...

They crank up the populist stuff or the big corporations or whatever, and the kind of college educated, pretty thoughtful conservative Republicans recoil at that stuff. So it's hard for her. She's got to, you know, work up her world while not alienated, alienating maybe the loose four or five percent of Republicans she could still in the in the in the ballot box privately get. So I think I think it will be better normal, but I don't think it'll be a big wave.

But it's out there. Well, we're talking margins here. We're talking about marginal rates. Exactly. So, you know, yeah. But I don't think it'll max out. I think it'll be less than it could be.

There's no doubt that Carl is right about one thing. This is a sociological, cultural phenomenon. Because of how tribal our politics are now, there is an enormous amount of social pressure, I'd say, on both sides, if you're a member of one of those tribes, to not stray from the tribe. I think it's hard if you're a Republican, even in the toniest...

Mike Murphy suburb areas of the tiniest areas of West Hollywood. It's hard to sit up at a dinner party with white Republicans. I'm wearing a white tie right now. It's actually Hancock Park. I mean, West Hollywood, please. Yeah, well, sorry. It's not tony enough. Beverly Hills.

Like, Beverly Hills, Pacific Palisades, one of those places. Although there are Republicans in those places. But you can't, like, it's very hard for people to sit in a room like that and say, yeah, I'm a Republican, card-carrying Republican, and I'm going to go out and vote for Kamala Harris for the reasons Mike just said. But I think there are a lot of them who are sitting there going, I can't vote for Donald Trump. Secretly in their...

Yeah. No, no. Just Whit Airs, the great Republican pollster friend of the show, asks a clever question on his surveys. Are you more of a Trump Republican or more of a party Republican? And that number has been moving, moving right now. It's, you know, it depends on the state, but it's within five points of each other, which shows there's a big chunk that will say Republican, but not Trump Republican, which is a tell.

That's a micro fracture in the bone. There are some people who are not so crazy about Trump wearing the Republican label. And the question is, do 10 percent of 50 percent fall off? That's that's material. Or is it that people now believe that the party is Trump and they're conflating the two? And so so so, John, just a second. Let's listen to the one of the main Trump spots that he's running right now.

A flood of illegals, skyrocketing prices, global chaos, and Kamala wouldn't change a thing. Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?

There is not a thing that comes to mind. Nothing will change with Kamala. More weakness, more war, more welfare for illegals, and even more taxes. Only President Trump cut middle class taxes, and only President Trump will do it again. Best Trump spot in a while, right? Yeah, best one I've seen. Yeah, yeah. Bullseye. That gap will be the thing if she loses. So, you know, I wanted to talk about that for a second. 100%. You know, the...

candidates make mistakes all the time. Okay. The ones that, the ones that make a difference are the ones that confirm a fear that people have. Uh, so when Romney said the 47% thing, when Hillary said the deplorables thing, now they only matter. The reason we remember those things is because those guys lost. If she wins, this will be, you know, uh, forgotten.

But if she loses, it's only definitional. Let's remind David Axelrod also of his candidate, Barack Obama, once talked about people clinging to their guns and religion. Similar thing. If we had lost...

If we had lost, that would have been... Been the reason. Yeah. But we also, we kind of, we were aware in the moment and he was, you know, he went, you'll remember, to some sort of Union Hall or someplace in western Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. And went right at it after that. Right. So...

But the point is... Yes, but your point, David, is right. And I think here's the thing. This goes back to play the Trump side of this out, which is the thing that sort of

The one place where our friend David Plouffe very gingerly sidesteps is if you say to him the Trump argument, the John McLaughlin argument, the Tony Fabricio argument basically is the weight of Joe Biden's unpopularity, his

his 37%, 38% approval rating is so great. And the mood of the country is so sour and that Harris has not done enough to separate herself from those things. And that ultimately is why Trump is going to blow past his previous ceiling. And, and David will say, Plouffe will say, that's an atmospheric argument, but there's so really, there's a real weight to that argument, I think. And when you see Harris, that's why that mistake happened.

that Harris made is the mistake that sticks. It's like she has not, she's done a lot to separate herself from her previous positions in the 2019, 2020 era, but she hasn't done enough or done much at all to separate herself from Joe Biden. You could make an argument that from the moment that Joe Biden gave his speech at the convention that

She should have spent more time, not in a brutal way, but over time, gradually pushing off from Biden. And when asked direct questions like those ones she got asked when she was doing her media tour, she needed a much better answer on what she would have done different. She had to have it, given how unpopular he is, how little people know about her other than that she was his vice president. It's...

because they build the whole thing on turning the page, moving forward, new energy, new ideas, yada, yada, yada. And then, candidate, what do you think about all that? I'm the same. I mean, if there's one three-by-five card,

In the entire campaign that should have been stenciled, and I'm piling on now, but this one stunned me because they're a pretty sharp team, was this question. Yet, boom, deer in the headlights. Not really. Biden and I are the same. And if she loses, this moment deserves the attention it'll get. I suspect she had that three-by-five card. Why she couldn't recall it in that moment, I don't know. I think it was...

Honestly, she felt cross pressured about seeming disloyal. And you could see her sort of thinking it through in the moment.

Uh, but there are a hundred ways to answer that again, you know, like this goes back to the fat ass consult, retired consultant on the sidelines rule. It's really easy when you're not on the battlefield. Yeah. But still this one is so fundamental. I agree with you on this. And one of the things that has made the Trump media, uh, uh, effective is that they're relying a lot on her past statements on video, uh,

And, you know, this one was real time. Yes, the it was real time. But, you know, the the on the one hand, the issue of transitional surgery for prisoners is huge.

as obscure an issue as could be and, and high, highly irrelevant to the concerns of people's everyday lives. But it's important. It's a cue. It's just like, exactly. So those, so, so those people you were talking about, Mike, that are sitting on the side that, that are, are cross pressured, those Republicans who are cross pressured, uh,

And also working class whites who respond a lot to taxpayer money being used for that. And that's the other ad that they're running very heavily right now. Oh, that ad all over the place. Yeah. Yeah. Well, so it comes down for those marginal voters. Do you take a chance on her or not? And they're loading up risk on her with paid advertising. Yeah.

They're trying to, the Harris campaign, load up more risk on Trump is back. You forgot how bad he is. Bottom line, it's down to her to break through. She's got to sell her. You're so right. And the thing about it is, in this sense, Trump has the easier argument because he only has to push his negative, her negative, because he knows that basically attitudes toward him are pretty well baked.

Uh, and, uh, so they're trying to raise the risk level on a guy who people have lived with for 10 years and have sort of absorbed all of the crazy. And, uh, and he is trying to paint a picture of someone they basically have known for 90 days in a serious way. Right. So she's written in pencil. He's written in ink.

And that's an advantage to his paintbrush to torture the metaphor even more or whatever the hell it is. But but still, he is the there's one thing that she has going for him.

He is in the culture as a Bond villain to a huge swath of the population that I think is going to turn out. And by this, I mostly mean women and college educated people. It's now a social value to be out there screaming against Trump. And it's amplified every day for free on social media. Everything he said, the McDonald's thing.

You know, there's $100 million of memes pounding him on that because he looked like a clown. It was typical. So you can't really underestimate that. If you had to bet right now, if you had to bet on the basis of, particularly on the basis of post-Dobbs politics and the large shifts that we've seen in that area, if you had to bet, if you had to bet,

Who's going to if are we going to get a surge, a massive turnout of young women or a massive turnout of young men? The bro, the bro vote that Trump is going after right now in the last two weeks. Who'd you bet on?

Who's like, who's the safer bet on the base of what we've seen in, in, in 2022? Uh, I mean, I'd be the safer bet. It does again, not a guarantee, but I'm young, young women really hate Donald Trump. I mean, yeah. Power of a thousand sons across party, across, across age, race, uh,

And education level. Young women do not like Donald Trump. And young women, we have mail-in voting now so you can help your boyfriend fill out his ballot. So I'll say a week ago, I thought— Whether he does it or not. Whether he does it or not. Help him out. Help him out. Help him out. Use your power. So a week ago, I said I thought the election I held today was Trump, or maybe it was two episodes ago.

This is just, you know, we don't know. We're guessing. It's a tied race. But my gut now is that she's gear shift. And if you put a gun to my head and I couldn't wiggle away or get you to shoot Axelrod instead, I would predict her now.

I've moved a little. You know what? I think we're going to be having these impulses on a daily basis between now and then. And so I resist them. I do think that... Oh, come on. It's fun. It's fun. We won't write it down. Nobody will know. I'm still unnerved at the prospect that you were trying to get them to shoot me instead of you.

Well, we have to look at your record. That was Bob Dole's great old joke in 88. He wouldn't take Secret Service. And they'd say, Senator Dole, where's your secret? He had this Kansas State trooper, Hoyt Exton guy instead, and a cowboy outfit. Senator Dole, where's your Secret Service? Ah, gave mine to Bush with his record. He needs them all. So we could make lighter jokes like that once in American politics, pre-violence.

You know, Mike, October is the season for wearing masks and costumes. Oh, I do it all year round, but go ahead. Yes, at our insistence. But some of us feel like we wear a mask and hide more often than we want to at work and social settings.

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and the flexibility. It's really pretty excellent, and it's really worth a look. So take off the mask with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com slash hacks today and get 10% off your first month. That's pretty good. That's betterhelp, H-E-L-P dot com slash hacks. On your point about women, young women, John, the...

Ben Wickler, the very, very talented state director, state chairman of the Wisconsin Party, probably the best state chair in the country on the Democratic side, told me that on the mail, M-A-I-L, partisan breakdown of early mail, of the mail that's been counted so far or received so far in Wisconsin, that

It looks very similar to 2022, including the female suburban skew. So, you know, that is now one of the questions is one of the questions is about younger people in some of these university towns.

that are important in Michigan, in Wisconsin. Uh, and, uh, you saw at the beginning of that, uh, Trump ad reference to, you know, chaos in the world and images of the middle East. Uh, I've raised this before. I'm going to raise it again. Um, this is a very fraught thing for, uh,

For Harris, because in some ways she's at the mercy of events there. She is she and Biden are and but she's the candidate cross pressured between an Arab community that is not that is significant enough to influence the race in Michigan, Palestinians and Lebanese around Detroit,

who are deeply, deeply unhappy with Americans for providing weaponry to the Israelis and between them and the Jewish community who are pissed that

Americans, that the Americans have not succeeded in persuading Netanyahu to desist and are still sending him and are still criticizing him or are criticizing him. So Jews are unhappy, even though, or some Jews, even though America is providing all the weaponry that Israel needs. And the Arab community is unhappy because America isn't using the leverage they have to get

them to stop attacking Gaza, attacking Lebanon, where a million people have been displaced. It's a terrible place to be. And the chaos factor that comes with war generally, if Netanyahu attacks Iran or, you know, in response to Iran's attack on Israel in the next 14 days, might that be a decisive factor in this race?

Well, anything big could be. You just don't know. I mean, is it Trump, the strong man versus her thoughtful, don't expand the war thing? I mean, it throws everything into a bit of a tizzy with a lot of vote already in the pipeline with absentees and early voting. Yeah, I raise it, John, just because younger voters. Yeah.

Yeah, no. I mean, it's a totally reasonable question to ask. I don't know the answer to it. It's hard for me to quite figure out. Again, it's everything. So we're talking about such small margins here that like Mike just said, anything big could be the thing that tilts in a way that turns out to be decisive because you're not talking about very many votes. But it's just hard for me to see.

that the connection, there's a lot of ways in which Harris is totally stuck with the Biden record. I just, on a purely instinctual level, I just don't believe there's that much

uh, there's that much of a Biden's foreign policy and stuff that happens that relative to BB Netanyahu that ultimately turns out to be decisive in terms of how people judge Harris or Trump for that matter. I mean, I worry more if I think about like, what, what's the thing that's going to, going to turn the race on its head in the last, the last two weeks, the thing that we've not yet seen that everyone who pays attention to this stuff has been focused on for two years is when is there going to be some, um,

misinformation, disinformation, fake news,

particularly deepfake driven thing that comes along that, that comes along where you see something from Trump or Harris or somebody else, and you can't tell whether it's really them or not. And it creates chaos and havoc for 24 hours as we try to figure out what's real and what's not real. I've been waiting for that for, for the last couple of years and we haven't seen it yet. And we're starting to see now public service ads of celebrities. You saw deep fake Jake from CNN, you know, trying to raise the alarm on this, but we've not yet been hit by it.

I can't imagine we're not going to be by the end. The fake security camera footage of Trump and Jennifer Aniston or something. I'm stunned we don't have it. Can I do one rant on something you brought up? Apologies to Jennifer Aniston, by the way. Huge apologies to Jennifer Aniston. And

No, just before. One thing that happens now is an obsessive—because it's the only election return you can look at—is this early vote, tracking the early vote thing. And I'm a big contrarian on it because it—

you don't know because people self-select to be early voters. And so it's hard to predict the election based on what starts to come in first, whose primary voters feel more like mailing in. So I just want to put a little note. No, no. And let me just add on to that. Yeah. Two things. One is don't be confused. If you're watching this on YouTube, that evpolitics.org sign behind Murphy does not mean early vote. It means electric vehicles. But,

But secondly, the way you evaluate early vote, be it mail or in person, is are there people voting who would not otherwise have voted? Yes. Right. And so...

This is the one thing that Plouffe said that I really thought was interesting because obviously everyone in the world right now is freaking out in one way or the other about what they're hearing from various unreliable sources and people who are over-interpreting or under-interpreting. But Plouffe just said Trump is reliant on a lot of these casual, irregular voters and what they're seeing in all the early vote data –

across all seven battleground states is that they're doing better with irregular voters than Trump is. They're not seeing a wave of irregular vote in the early vote for Trump, which again is not decisive. Which also skews election day, but yes. They're not seeing a sign that's freaking them out on that front right now. I think in the Sunbelt states that may be

Less true. And the reason for that is I don't think they were organizing the Sunbelt states before Biden went out of the race. I think they were pouring their resources into the blue wall states because that's they thought was Biden's only path. So they're they're playing catch up in those states organizationally, I guess.

But I do know, like I know the first day in Georgia, the first day in Georgia, for example, Trump actually did better with those new voters. It was a small cohort of people. And that was a switch. But listen.

You know, we, people are so desperate for tea leaves to read. Yes. Right. Exactly. You have to really avoid to Mike's point, reading the wrong tea leaves or reading the tea leaves that are legitimate wrong. And, uh, yeah, I mean, I'll give you an anecdote. I, and what,

a week ago. You know, let me just, your hands look really big when you put them in front. Someone should tell Trump about this. This is, he would appreciate a device like that. Yeah, exactly. Go ahead. Me and Liam Neeson. Okay. You have like Arnold Palmer hands. Well, they're gifted. Um,

The funny thing, somebody called me up and said, the number of young African-American women registering to vote in Philadelphia has hit an all-time record. Oh, the race is in the bag. And then in a Democratic precinct, there's been freakish early turnout, and I've never seen more Trump signs. Oh, my God, a surge of, you know, this will literally drive you crazy. Again, two elephants falling down a long set of stairs.

And it's very hard to micro play to play it. Yeah. Well, an elephant and a gigantic donkey. But David, yes. David, wasn't this bringing you into the question you were, did you, I thought you were leading towards the question you put you, you teased earlier, which is when you started talking about Sunbelt versus the blue wall states is the, was the question of, is this really, are we just back to the blue wall? Like the, is that where this, is that where this race now ends up is us just focused on remembered.

Yeah, I know. I still have some shred of memory compared to the two of you. Yes. That was the question. So what do you think? I mean, I thought I thought I thought the one thing that has never changed for me from when Biden was early in the Biden campaign, mid Biden campaign, late Biden campaign, early Harris campaign to now I'm like, I'm going to be spending the last two weeks in Michigan and Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, because I think in the end, that's that's going to be the Democratic path that this is going to get done.

I think that, you know, the most if you look at polling averages and you look at private polling, the margin between the worst of the seven battleground states and the best is

are minuscule, like some state, you know, Arizona, maybe two points behind. Still margin of error. All margin of error. All margin of error. All. And most of them, a lot of them in the fractions. But that said, I think that it is going to come down to these blue wall states. And obviously it's important for the Harris campaign to fight for these other states because they need an insurance policy because those blue wall states are very, very,

Marginal. And so and particularly I worry about Michigan because of what I said.

Which, you know, for two reasons. One is the is the Middle East situation and how that affects a small but reliable Democratic constituency, which may not vote for Trump, but may not vote for anyone in that race. And she needs traditionally been more Democratic. Yes. The trouble there goes right. So that's also. And here we go. But the thing is, that's where I was going. Trump is demagogue. We just did a poll on it. And.

You know, two thirds of voters say they're very aware of the debate and everything. And it's cutting two to one because I don't think they've done a very good defense at all. It's one of my very few criticisms of the Harris campaign. Trump is outspent like we put up a pro EV job spot. Nobody knows there are so many jobs. We got outspent ten to one.

So by the Trump guys and it's huge in the Senate race where so there's about we did a report on EVjobs.org of all the EV bashing ads and in Michigan is close to seven million bucks and most of it all Republican just pounding on Slotkin and Trump.

demagoguing it. Is anybody surprised? No, I'm Michigan. Is anybody surprised that the place that Michelle Obama is making her debut is going to be Saturday? It's going to be Saturday in Michigan. Michigan is suddenly looming in some ways larger in a lot of people's minds than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania for those reasons.

Yeah, I absolutely. Yeah, I think you'll hear my complaints from people on the ground in both Michigan and Pennsylvania on the Democratic side. Michigan about the EV ads, which they believe has cut

against them. And then in Pennsylvania, in Western Pennsylvania, on fracking and energy. And that they have attacked her pretty significantly on that issue. And there hasn't been a paid media response to that. So, you know, we'll see. These are strategic decisions about whether offense is better than defense and how you deal with these things. But

But Michigan's in play. I'm with you. I'm with you. So let me just throw in one last contrarian thing, because I agree with the blue wall thesis. That said, and here's a rabbit hole, but I've seen two private polls for other things on the ballot in Arizona in the last 24 hours and one in Nevada. And weirdly enough, that's the Sunbelt Hatch. You know, if she can put both of those, Arizona and Nevada together, she can offset trouble in the metal benders.

In both polls, separate pollsters, it's tied, 46-46 in Arizona, which is surprising to me. Yeah, given the public polling, which is why it's a little weaker. Yeah, it's been a little better Trump place for a lot of reasons. I just came from there, and I have to tell you that I—

That surprises me. It surprised me, too. I didn't believe the first poll, but then the second one came in. Those two. And Nevada, I think I have concerns about that as well. But those two states alone would not compensate for Pennsylvania if she loses Pennsylvania. Right. I'm thinking Michigan. And then second, slightly ahead in Nevada, too, Harris. So it's just where the desert states are.

apparently, you know, again, everything's margin, but have inched up a little to be more competitive, which if it's true, is going to be good news in Pennsylvania. Right. Well, and if it's tied in Arizona, you can sort of tell, I would also say you can tell if you look at the wet,

but where Harris is spending her time and how they're thinking about spending her time for the rest of the campaign. You know, she's doing, I mean, for some people's money, she's doing a surprising amount in Georgia and the number and David, you're in North Carolina. Now I'm curious what you, what you, any vibe you get down there because that, that,

to me, the Georgia, North Carolina, if you're moving out of the blue wall, the place where the Harris campaign seems to think they have a better chance is to pick up Georgia and North Carolina, and that's the place where they compensate because they steal a state in North Carolina from Trump from 2020. What's it like down there? I think that...

I do think that they feel like they have a better chance in Georgia than North Carolina, partly because they're 10 percent, 10 percent more of the electorate is African-American in Georgia than North Carolina. North Carolina is the second most rural state in the country. And, you know, in this business, you have to make judgments as to who,

as to where you're going to place your bet because there are a lot of fool's gold states that seem like they're in your reach and you spend a lot of time and effort and money trying to win them.

And so, you know, you have to make flinty eyed judgments. My sense is now Trump is making several appearances in North Carolina today. So, you know, they're there. They understand. I mean, Fabrizio said when you were there, John, at the convention Institute of Politics, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Georgia and Pennsylvania. Georgia and Pennsylvania. And I still think that's the strategy they're following, but it relies on them. No leaks anywhere else. They look worried about North Carolina. The Trump campaign looks worried about it. And, you know, to your fool's gold thing, David, we both know since Obama in 12, where Democrats have been chasing North Carolina fool's gold, it's been like the Democratic Pennsylvania. But

But I think, you know, if you look at what Trump is spending time and you look at where the Harris campaign is spending time, it feels like North Carolina is more of a target for Harris and more of a vulnerability or perceived vulnerability for Trump than either. I think Arizona and Nevada are going to start seeing a lot fewer candidate visits, apart from like J.D. Vance is in Arizona all day today. Well, you might see Trump there in two days at this little bump because Obama was there a couple of days ago. Yeah, yeah. That's, yeah, sure. There's a little.

I think Obama's touring all these states. So he hit Nevada, he hit Arizona. I believe Trump is in Miami today. He will be in New York City this weekend for his Nuremberg rally. So he's obviously going to the places where he can. Yeah, more swing states. Yeah, a big swing state tour for Donald Trump. Okay, gentlemen, we will be back in a minute, but we have to pay a few bills.

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If you have a question for the Hacks, email us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. You can record a voice memo. Just keep it short. Use your name. Send it to us. We'll play it on the air. Or call our secret Chicago voter registration hotline slash mailbag number at 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471.

I used to like the listener mailbag song better than Murphy reading the numbers out, but the AI Murphy reading the numbers out is now my favorite piece of sound on the show. That's just a precursor. We're actually experimenting with doing the entire show with an AI Murphy. I wasn't here last week. That wasn't me. In fact, maybe that's what they should have said about Harris and the view that that was actually an AI-generated answer by the Trump campaign. Deepfake, yeah. Russian deepfake Harris.

Okay, with that, our first question on voicemail from Jim for David Axelrod. This is Jim from Washington, D.C. Can you give us a view into how the brain trust of each of the campaigns is operating on a daily basis in these final two weeks?

What kind of delegation of authority do they have? Do they have daily calls with the candidate at a pre-established time each day? Do they talk to them multiple times? Even if you don't have the exact feel of the Harris or the Trump campaigns, it might be helpful to understand or get your perspective on how other campaigns have

have run at this point in the past. Thank you. So first of all, Jim, you sound vaguely like Joe Biden. I'm not accusing you of operating under an alias, but I just wanted to make that point. Quite sharp, too. Look, when you're at this stage in a campaign, the candidate is flying like

at 600 miles an hour, literally many times during the day. So they may be checking in, but usually there's an operational person who's traveling with them who is in constant contact with the headquarters and ferrying.

messages back and forth, but you primarily want the candidate to be focused on the thing that the candidate needs to do, which is to perform and deliver a message. And a lot of the sort of blocking and tackling of the campaign is being is

is being carried out from the headquarters and by state directors at this point in these key, uh, battleground States who are, uh, you know, operating with field directors and, uh, uh, you know, keeping track of voter contact and so on. Uh, so, uh, at this point, the operation is humming, uh,

In a well-conceived campaign. Now, the Trump campaign, I can't speak to. A whole different deal. Yes. To the degree that he has people from the headquarters traveling with them, they are traveling with a taser or a tranquilizer dart to try and keep him from.

harming himself in the course of the final two weeks. But I think the campaign is basically doing all the blocking and tackling that campaigns are supposed to do at this point and hoping that the candidate doesn't blow them up that day.

Yeah. With Trump, the campaign headquarters is wherever Trump is. Although back at HQ, they're spending advertising money that I don't think he has much to do with, which is why that's the more rational campaign. And I'll just chip in that,

A lot of candidates like the 10-minute crack of dawn call just to feel connected to whoever the CEO or the real manager of the campaign is. And then they have the discipline, as David said, to go out and do. Now, meanwhile, back at the headquarters, a lot of people are getting up at 5 in the morning to read overnight tracking polls and freak out. That's just the breakfast of nerves that's part of this. But the Trump thing is one of a kind, so...

I don't know if it's much of a model. Well, Mike, Chris says, I keep having this crazy thought that Kamala should announce in the next week or two that if she's elected, it will be her intention to pardon Trump of all charges, at least related to election interference. Am I mad?

For me, it makes a ton of sense, both politically and socially, as we try to move on with our lives. Is he mad, Mike? Well, it is a crazy idea. So congratulations. You're set to be postmaster general in the Trump cabinet. You have passed the insanity test. But it's an intriguing idea. I would say, and I'm curious about you guys, too, the bound sheet of it is,

It would be fascinating to see how Trump reacts to it and would let some of the hate energy out. The problem is in the democratic world, it would be a total surrender. And that would that would become the narrative that she's desperate and she's agreed to roll over for the villain of the 21st century. Now, it might be a really smart idea.

If she wins and there's a whole, you know, read a couple of Jerry Ford biographies about the Rumsfeld one is particularly good when they had to figure out what to do with Nixon. He wrote a great book about being chief of staff for Ford. But no, I would not. It is a crazy idea, a radically brilliant, but don't recommend it. Well, look, I think let's just add one postscript to this. This is a decision that probably will rest with Joe Biden.

Good point. And, you know, so I don't I don't I agree with Mike. I wouldn't do that now. I think it is a decision for the sitting president to make.

after the election. And, you know, we'll see what happens. There is no template for this. So as with much that involves Trump. So we'll see. But, you know, you make a compelling point about the impact of moving forward. But against that is the sense that no one's above the law and presidents, despite what the Supreme Court says, there are things presidents can do that should be

for which they should be held accountable. So we'll have that argument later. But right now, Mike Murphy has a question from Andrew for the great John Hyman. Yes, okay. Here you go, Johnny, from Andrew. With such little time left before the election...

Are there any, quote, game changing, unquote, get it endorsements that Harris could get that would actually sway voters and sway is a bit of a tell here. Aside from his own family, who would be most desperate, detrimental for Trump to lose. So I think he's talking about pulling somebody out of the Trump column. But what do you think, Johnny?

I appreciate the use of the word, the game-changing thing, every time that happens. Yeah, there you go. You owe him a dollar. I get a royalty. I get a royalty every time anybody uses that phrase in public life, which is why I know you guys never use it, because you're always just trying to deprive me of my pennies. Game change. There you go. Look, I, for a long time, have said and thought that there aren't very many in

endorsements don't matter that much anymore. There was a time that you both will remember when, you know, the Colin Powell endorsement, you know, was a huge thing for Barack Obama. And when it happened in October, everyone kind of focused on that. We don't have in this tribal politics, this polarized politics we have now, we don't have much of that. But I thought for a long time that George W. Bush was the kind of the nape plus ultra of what Harris could get that might help her

her in undermining Trump. I now am so convinced that he's not going to be an endorser for her under any circumstances that I now look increasingly to the military and to former, you know, the Harris campaign has put out former Trump officials to say how dangerous he is. I think that's been a good thing, but probably not, has not moved very many numbers. But if you imagined a world in which, I mean, again, I'm playing fantasy baseball here. If you imagine a world where Mark Milley

and John Kelly and Jim Mattis came out in a trio and stood up and said,

you know, with all of their, an ideal world wearing all of their medals, got up and said, we worked for Donald Trump. We were longstanding veterans. We're some of the most decorated military heroes in the country. And we tell you right now that Donald Trump would be, would destroy America if he became or would risk destroying America and American democracy if he gets reelected. I think,

That, if I were doing, you know, what would I want if I was the Harris campaign? That's what I would want. And I think some version of that is actually still possible. Not likely, but possible that one of those guys, I mean, Millie and Woodward's book effectively did the same thing by saying what he said to Woodward, but having him on stage and having him on camera. Right, you got to line them up. Yeah. Any one of those three.

And three of them would be that would be that would be that would be the killer would be the thing he was would most want. I agree with you on that. You know, the thing that's interesting is one of the reasons that those guys have such contempt for Trump is Trump's sundering of rules and laws and norms and institutions, including institutions of the military.

and disdaining institutions of the military and the valor of people who serve. But those same rules and laws and norms hold them back because the idea of the military mixing in politics is antithetical to the oath that they take

or the vows that they take as a member of the military. They also swear an oath to the Constitution. Let me just chip in real quickly. I think Romney would leave a mark, too. Guys, I've got to hop right now, unfortunately. I've got Wes Moore on this other line. He wants to be president. He'll wait.

Just say goodbye. See you, John. See you, John. All right, guys. We'll see you next time. We're back on the air. We're doing extra episodes now through the end, right? Next week. We're working on that for next week. Extra episode next week. And the big finish. Yeah. Let's do it. See you next time. Later, boys. And I've got a real quick plug here. I've got one too. But, Johnny, you can take off. So I'll do plug one. The great Max Patton, who hosts directly current EV Politics podcast on YouTube and on Apple and all the other. Very plugged in guy.

Very plugged in guy. Even interviewed you about the great riddle of what kind of EV to get you, which is my post-election project. We're going to load you into a unit there, Mr. Axelrod. I'm going to move some iron. Yeah, you're a live wire, man. Go ahead. It's shocking, actually. So we have a great guest that pods up today, Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation, talks to Max about all this stuff like where are the chargers? What's going on? What do people know? What about all these new jobs?

It's a lot of fun. So check out Directly Current on Apple Pods, Spotify or on YouTube. It's up today with the secretary who really asked a lot of questions. It was a great interview. OK, mine is I've already plugged a book by my very good friend, Forrest Claypool, a great book called The Daily Show Inside the Transformative Reign of Chicago's Richard M. Daly. It's great Chicago history, but also great and informative history about cities and how to govern cities.

how to govern cities. He did a podcast with Zach McCrary, who does a great, I was going to plug this too. It's great. Yeah. Double plug on this. It's a must listen. It's really terrific. Yes. He it's called pro politics.com.

And Zach does a terrific job. So I recommend that you guys listen. My final plug is for myself in the Acts files with John King rolling out that that's on this week. John's been on the road. He had a lot of great observations about this race. And.

Brother, I will see you in a very, very frenetic, eventful final run-up to the campaign. Two shows next week. Yep, two shows. And then a post-election surprise that will either be in Portugal or the Windy City, depending on outcomes. We'll tell you more about that next week. Yes, exactly. All right. Until next time. Onward. Don't forget to vote. Exactly. All right. See you. See you.

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