cover of episode The New Non-Normal (with Jonathan Martin)

The New Non-Normal (with Jonathan Martin)

2024/11/19
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David Axelrod
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Jonathan Martin
M
Mike Murphy
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David Axelrod: 特朗普的内阁任命令人震惊，打破了长期以来的政治规范，例如总统与司法部门和联邦调查局保持距离的规范。这些任命还对美国的公共卫生安全和司法体系构成威胁，例如任命反疫苗的罗伯特·肯尼迪小儿子负责疫苗相关事务，以及任命有道德问题的盖茨为司法部长。此外，许多支持特朗普的选民并非支持他的所有政策，他们更关注的是改善生活水平，而特朗普的这些任命并没有考虑到这一点。 Mike Murphy: 特朗普的内阁任命与他在竞选期间的承诺相悖，他实际上会继续采取那些不受欢迎的行为。许多选民虽然不喜欢特朗普，但他们认为在他担任总统期间生活水平有所提高。特朗普的选民没有意识到他的内阁任命会带来负面影响。特朗普的内阁任命不会提高民众的安全感。特朗普的内阁任命能否获得参议院批准尚不确定。参议院对总统任命的批准权至关重要。特朗普可能利用休会任命制度绕过参议院的批准。参议院共和党人可能会阻止特朗普的一些极端任命。一些共和党参议员可能会因为自身政治前途而投票反对特朗普的一些任命。共和党参议员可能需要权衡哪些任命值得反对。那些不再寻求连任的共和党参议员更有可能投票反对特朗普。特朗普可能会利用宪法中总统可以休会国会的条款来绕过参议院。特朗普可能会采取非常规措施来任命他的内阁成员。盖茨的任命可能最先被否决。参议院共和党人最终可能会屈服于特朗普的压力。海格塞斯的任命也面临挑战，因为他曾被指控性骚扰。如果参议院否决了特朗普的太多任命，他可能会任命代理部长。民主党也有很多亿万富翁。一些亿万富翁支持特朗普并非出于贪婪，而是因为他们相信更自由的资本主义。一些人只看到了特朗普政策的积极方面，而忽略了其负面影响。股市下跌可能会对特朗普造成打击。民主党需要为中期选举做好准备。 Jonathan Martin: 特朗普选择内阁成员的标准是他们在电视上的形象和对他的忠诚度。特朗普选择内阁成员偏向于那些在竞选期间对他忠诚的人，即使他们缺乏相关经验。特朗普选择对他不逆来顺受的人，而不是那些有政府资历的重量级人物。特朗普试图控制那些违抗他的机构，例如司法部。特朗普试图削弱所有独立的监督机构，并将它们置于总统的控制之下。特朗普在竞选期间就公开表示过他想要控制政府的各个部门。在竞选期间，特朗普并没有隐瞒他想要控制政府各个部门的意图。参议院不太可能允许特朗普通过休会任命的方式任命整个内阁。一些共和党参议员可能会因为自身政治前途而投票反对特朗普的一些任命。共和党参议员可能需要权衡哪些任命值得反对。那些不再寻求连任的共和党参议员更有可能投票反对特朗普。特朗普可能会利用宪法中总统可以休会国会的条款来绕过参议院。特朗普可能会采取非常规措施来任命他的内阁成员。盖茨的任命可能最先被否决。参议院共和党人最终可能会屈服于特朗普的压力。海格塞斯的任命也面临挑战，因为他曾被指控性骚扰。如果参议院否决了特朗普的太多任命，他可能会任命代理部长。特朗普提名霍华德·卢特尼克为商务部长。特朗普和马斯克的关系可能不会持久。特朗普不会轻易被任何人挑战。特朗普的内阁任命可能会发生变化。参议员希伊支持特朗普提名肯尼迪。制药公司可能会反对肯尼迪的任命。众议院议长改变了对盖茨道德报告的立场。众议院议长声称他对盖茨道德报告的内容一无所知。众议院议长认为众议院道德委员会对非国会议员不具有管辖权。盖茨辞职是因为他知道道德报告即将发布。盖茨被指控与未成年女性发生性关系并提供毒品。参议院可能不会获得盖茨的道德报告。大多数共和党参议员都不愿意让盖茨担任美国最高执法官员。盖茨道德报告的泄露转移了人们对特朗普胜利的关注。特朗普的过激行为对民主党有利。海格塞斯也面临性骚扰指控。加巴德可能存在FBI档案。拜登可能不会公开加巴德的FBI档案。俄罗斯对特朗普的内阁任命感到高兴。特朗普政府可能会实施大规模减税政策。亿万富翁们对特朗普的胜利感到高兴。特朗普的胜利并不完全是民粹主义的胜利。特朗普的胜利主要来自于蓝领选民的支持。特朗普的政策可能会对市场造成负面影响。股市和媒体报道是特朗普关注的两个指标。民主党也有很多亿万富翁。一些亿万富翁支持特朗普并非出于贪婪，而是因为他们相信更自由的资本主义。一些人只看到了特朗普政策的积极方面，而忽略了其负面影响。安德森对特朗普取消人工智能行政令感到高兴。特朗普政府可能会实施大规模驱逐出境政策。特朗普的政策可能会导致通货膨胀加剧。特朗普的政策可能会损害美国汽车工业。特朗普的政策可能会导致经济痛苦。民主党可以利用特朗普的政策失误来攻击他。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Trump choose controversial figures for his cabinet appointments?

Trump selected individuals based on their loyalty, TV appearance, and support during his campaign, prioritizing yes-people over experienced professionals to avoid resistance like he faced in his first term.

What are the implications of Trump's cabinet choices for the country's safety?

Trump's picks, including Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and Robert Kennedy Jr. for health roles, raise concerns as they lack relevant experience and have controversial backgrounds that could undermine national security and public health.

How might Trump's approach to cabinet appointments affect the midterm elections?

Trump's controversial appointments could alienate moderate voters and energize the opposition, potentially benefiting Democrats in the midterms by highlighting the chaotic and divisive nature of his administration.

What challenges do Trump's cabinet nominees face in the Senate confirmation process?

Several nominees, like Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth, face significant hurdles due to their controversial backgrounds and lack of relevant experience, potentially leading to rejections or withdrawals.

How might Trump's economic policies impact the stock market?

Trump's proposed tax cuts and deregulation could initially boost the stock market, but his tariff policies and potential economic instability from his other actions might lead to market volatility and downturns.

What is the potential impact of Trump's mass deportation plans on the economy?

Mass deportation plans could lead to economic disruptions, including labor shortages and increased costs for businesses reliant on immigrant labor, potentially offsetting any economic gains from other policies.

How might the Democratic Party adapt to the changing electoral landscape?

The Democratic Party needs to become more competitive in traditionally Republican-leaning areas, focusing on messaging and candidate selection that can appeal to a broader electorate beyond urban centers.

What does the future hold for the Republican Party post-Trump?

The Republican Party is likely to continue embracing elements of Trumpism, with potential for a new leader to emerge who can balance populist appeals with traditional conservative values, though the party will remain fundamentally changed.

Chapters
The discussion delves into Trump's controversial cabinet appointments, focusing on their audacity and potential implications for democratic norms.
  • Trump's cabinet picks include figures like RFK Jr. and Matt Gaetz, raising concerns about their qualifications and loyalty.
  • The appointments reflect Trump's desire for loyalty over expertise, potentially undermining institutional integrity.
  • The Senate's role in confirming these appointments will be crucial, with some nominees facing significant opposition.

Shownotes Transcript

This week, Axe and Murphy are joined by international Hack savant Jonathan Martin. The trio dives into Trump’s nomination circus, ranking his picks by sheer audacity and dissecting their broader implications. They also tackle the fight for DNC chair, the unraveling of democratic norms, and a potential political clash as wild as two tomcats in a pillowcase.