Nostalgia for Normalcy (with Maggie Haberman)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Ladies and gentlemen, please rise for the horribly and unfairly treated January 6th hostages.

Well, thank you very much. And you see the spirit from the hostages, and that's what they are, is hostages. They've been treated terribly and very unfairly, and you know that, and everybody knows that. And we're going to be working on that soon. The first day we get...

into office. We're going to save our country. We're going to work with the people to treat those unbelievable patriots. And they were unbelievable patriots and are. You see the spirit just cheering, making a cheering while they're doing that. And they did that in prison.

Welcome, hackaroos, and welcome to 1937. Here, after our big rally in Dayton during the important Senate primary there we're going to talk about. But Admiral Gibbs, we're in the hostages business now. I thought it was sedition. You know, were the Redcoats, when they tried to burn down the Capitol, hostages? I don't get all that. Straighten me out, and thank God we have the Scoop Master as our guest today to really explain it. The expert on Trumpology, the one and only.

I'm not sure I can straighten this out, but the good news is Murphy, we have somebody that can straighten all of us out. The one and only Maggie Haberman. Thanks guys. Maggie, thanks for joining us. And thank you. Welcome. There's a lot of ways we could start this. We started with a little of that sound. What one, what do you make of just, I mean, the sheer audacity of starting that rally the way they did. And, and,

Can you walk me and Murphy through how on earth is this going to be a central part of a general election campaign where the swing voters are suburban voters? It's so great question and good to be here with you guys. So let's go back to the town hall that he did with Caitlin Collins on CNN many, many months ago last year.

And it was very clear that he was starting what we have seen him do with any number of things that are either controversial or, you know, at best or damaging to him, which is, you know, try to recast it and use repetition to try to recast it. And he was, you know, talking about January 6th as some kind of positive for him. And this is basically the zenith of that, you know, in the same way that he is, you

insisting that it's actually President Biden who's bad for democracy. He's trying to do something similar here because his folks know that January 6th and his Trump's election lies do not work well with suburban voters, do not work well with swing voters. And so the only option they have is to try to turn it into democracy.

something it isn't where people who are accused of breaking into the Capitol are hostages. You know, is it a smart gamble? Seems risky, but I'm not sure what choice he has given the facts. Yeah, I guess. I mean, he certainly, let me just asterisk it with one thing, though. I mean, he certainly has a choice not to

play a national anthem at the beginning of his rally. He has a choice not to call people who were lawfully arrested hostages. He has a choice not to turn legal due process in this country into something other than what it is. But that wouldn't be in keeping with his brand to not do that.

And also probably his self-image a little bit, that he's being persecuted. That's right. So he's one million, you know, onto the us and them. And I'm happy to see he's got his own flag now. I'm waiting for the uniforms and the torches. We're shifting the night rallies. So here, let me go sci-fi on you for a minute about all this, Maggie, because you're the reigning expert.

on the Donald. Let's say we're aliens. Oh, we got trouble on Earth. We send a saucer there. We beam up Trump. We saw the brain into slices. And the question we want the computer to answer is, is

Is this the same Trump as 2016 or how has he changed? You know, how's the internal compass just slightly different? Or has he really the experience of losing to Biden, the legal troubles, the scrambling around for bail money, you know, everything in his life right now? Has it significantly changed him? Because that's the vibe I get, but I don't follow it nearly as closely and expertly as you do.

What's your take on Trump 2.0 or is there no Trump 2.0? Yeah. So just like correction, he hasn't had to scramble for bail money. He's had to scramble for disgorgement money. That's true. For, um, I just want to be precise about that. Well, you work for the New York times. We can say anything we want. Okay. And we, we, we each do our things. Um,

I don't think that this is a different Donald Trump. I think Donald Trump, you know, I got asked this question a lot in 2017 of, you know, is there, is, is he different than you thought he would be? No, he's exactly who I always thought he was. And that's true now. What I think he is different is a couple of things. I think he's older. I think he is angrier. I think he is quicker to anger. And, and I think that the, the existential threat that he is facing to his freedom and his company is,

have an effect. And I think that you see it sometimes. So for instance, a week and a half ago or so, I might have the dates wrong, but there was a weekend rally where after many weeks of not attacking E. Jean Carroll,

after he was found liable to the tune of $83 million by a federal civil jury after the sexual abuse and defamation trials. One was sexual abuse, two were defamation. He started attacking her. And he started attacking her because a day earlier he had had to post a $91-some-odd-million bond. And so...

I think you can see in real time how this is impacting him. But were these impulses always in him? Of course they were. It's just, you know, he has spent decades unable to decide what exactly he wanted from elites in the world. Did he want to be accepted by them or did he just want to attack them? And I think he has come to the conclusion that

he's not going to be accepted and he's going, you know, he's, he is being prosecuted in several different locations. And so he's going to lean into the people who like him. Yeah. I always thought the answer in 16 was the old Nixon thing. Let them into Harvard. We, you know, it'd be a lot easier for all of us. What Gibbsy, what do you got? Well, look, I'm, I'm struck just going back to the very beginning. I mean,

Nothing signifies the beginning of a political rally quite like a national anthem. This isn't one of those things where you can say, well, we really weren't sure what was going to come up. We got into a stem winder there with the teleprompter. I'm really struck by the fact that I get this whole notion of sail towards your weakness and try to minimize it.

This just seems... It's intense. It's definitely a different version of it. No question. Right. This seems crazy. Dark minor key. What could that mean? These are not tourists, says one congressman, posited they might be. These are... And they're not hostages. They're not... Many of them are currently serving time in federal prison camps.

Because they pleaded guilty to what they were doing. And oh, by the way, let's not have people forget what some of what they were doing was attacking law enforcement officers. Yes. So, you know, look, I... In some cases, yes. I am in one of those people that continues to... You look at the polls...

And, you know, you certainly see Trump in a currently an enviable position. But then as I think through it, I wonder to myself, can you really not expand your electorate and win this race? And it certainly seems like Donald Trump has taken the avenue of, I don't necessarily have to expand my electorate. I just have to keep this electorate really, really energized. Everything's a primary. And I wonder...

As we sit here on March 18th, what on earth is he going to be saying, Maggie, on October the 18th if he has to keep that energy going? It'll be avenge me.

We're a rathacon for president. We've got nine more months. I mean, he's sort of saying that now, Mike, I would argue, number one. But number two, I mean, I think what he's going to be saying, Robert, is going to depend in part on whether there's a trial, a criminal trial ahead of the election and whether he's convicted. And especially so for the January 6th related trial.

facts in a federal court. Right now, it looks as if a Manhattan state case stemming from falsifying, allegedly falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to a porn star during the 2016 election so that that didn't become a story when he was running then, that does look on track to be happening. I'm not sure how much voters are paying attention to that trial. I'm not sure how many voters will say,

you know, everyone, everyone does that. Everyone has a scandal. I don't know the answer to that. I mean, that's what, that's what some democratic strategists say to me about, uh, what they think would happen if they, if they put that before focus groups. Um, the J six facts that is potentially more, uh, damaging to him. Um, you are correct that he has decided that he, I don't know, not only that he doesn't need to grow, but that like he can't grow. Right. I mean, I think that what we have seen with Trump is,

over the course of the last two elections, and certainly the current polling bears this out, is he has a higher floor than President Biden and than Hillary Clinton did. But he has a lower ceiling than President Biden does. And so he is just trying to keep and maximize that.

whatever he's got and then depress whatever the other person has. And, and again, that's consistently been the playbook, at least from 2016 to now, 2020 was slightly different. Um, but what does it mean for what the rhetoric will be? The rhetoric has been, has been ratcheting up significantly. Um, um, you know, again, I, I,

continue to hold to the notion that this is not a different Donald Trump. And there is a very popular school of talk from Democrats that I hear this quote unquote Democrat Democratic elected official or black or Democratic strategist blank says Donald Trump is more unhinged, quote unquote. That's their language.

You know, I think that like you look back at a lot of what he's saying now, and it turns out that if you Google much of it, he was saying it in 2016. The language is now coarser. He is cursing a lot more at these rallies. There's more kids hearing this at his rallies. The apocalyptic vision is certainly darker and starker. But I don't think this is some 180 from what he used to be.

So it's an evolution, not a change-up. Is there anybody in his world, because the normal thing you do with this stuff is,

is you wouldn't double down on it. You'd say we're winning because people think we're better at running the economy than Biden. So therefore, we should pound all the economic stuff every day and not elevate January 16th. I mean, but I think with Trump, and I'm sure this is LaCivita's problem over there, you're always battling the id, you know, not always the rational thing. And he feeds off the crowd and makes him feel good and spins off into it. But

Do you know, is the campaign on board this? Because I think it's good for Biden if he pounds this all the way. My view of the electorate is they don't care nearly about it as much, tragically, as the Beltway does. So whenever they're off pounding Biden on the economy, they're not winning as much as they would be if they do that. But that doesn't seem to be their strategy. They're kind of doing the Romney campaign now.

where they wait for people to fire the president. Yeah, all respects to La Cevita, it's Susie Wiles' problem. She's the person who's... Is she the one really? This is kind of interesting. Yes, and so, number one, and one of her successes has been staying out of the shadows, in the shadows for the most part, but this is the Susie Wiles campaign, number one. Number two... Oh, that's interesting. Whether it is... Now, it doesn't mean that La Cevita has not, you know, been a...

you know, the 1A factor. But Wiles is the one who both manages Trump and manages, you know, sort of the rest. Quick interruption for a sec, Maggie, for our listeners who are political junkies. I would assume so. Her ex-husband, Lanny Wiles, was a legendary Reagan White House advance guy and director advance on the Straight Talk Express for John McCain in 2000. He was an old McCaniac. Boy, how the

how the crazy world of politics intersects over time. Anyway, go ahead. A lot has changed, Murphy, in the last several years. Look, are most voters voting on the economy? Yes. I mean, I think that's just objectively a fact. And whether...

It would be, you know, whether you say, you know, it would be it would be wiser to focus on that versus focusing on something that's an obvious, you know, weak point, which is which is Trump's election lies. That that is certainly an argument that I've heard from a lot of people. This is how Trump does things. And we've seen that over and over again, which is just sort of play up the weakness of.

Um, and, and with him, it's not just play it up, but it's tried to turn, convert it into something entirely different. Um, you know, their assumptions are that even, um, if the economy does not falter, um, that voters attitudes are still going to be, um, where they're at. And I think one thing that doesn't get talked about a lot, I don't know how you quantify this. You are both much smarter about this than I am. Um, but

The thing that has become increasingly clear is that a lot of voters have this kind of nostalgia for 2019 because that was pre-pandemic. And that was the last time a lot of people felt good about their lives, even if they can't really articulate why. And I don't really know how President Biden counters that because it's a vibe more than data based. So, I mean, look, I still think we're dealing with.

economic statistics aside, I think we're still dealing with the fact that many people still go to the grocery store and they're paying a decent bit more for what they have to buy every three or four days. And I think there is that, to your point, nostalgia for the normalcy of sort of

before it all shut down, which was probably just about four years ago today around that time. But I want to ask you a little bit, you mentioned this sort of state of mind and you mentioned Caitlin Collins and she tweeted not long before we jumped on this, Trump has posted seven times in the last two hours on Truth Social about his struggle to secure the half a million dollar bond that we were speaking of, saying that he shouldn't have to put up the money until after the appeal. They

This campaign, I suppose, is basically an existential crisis for Donald Trump. He figures that if he can get to that magic day in November and win this race, most if not all of his problems legally will.

disappear. I think that's probably a little crazy to think, but basically, if he can be in control of the Justice Department and whatnot, he can clear up a lot of this stuff, or at least he can seek some safe haven of being the President of the United States. How much of that is impacting not only what we're seeing, but sort of how they're going to make decisions and what they're going to do from here on out?

Sure. So there's two separate issues. One is the one you were talking about, Caitlin, posting about on X slash Twitter, which is the bond money that he has to come up with. That's not going to be helped if he wins the presidency. That's a civil case that is totally different now. Right, right. And that will be settled later.

prior to an election. Maybe settled in a week, right? Right. I mean, well, the bond is due on March 25th. And so far, they can't get anybody to secure a bond that large. There aren't enough idiots out there. The question becomes, you know, does a higher court in New York State

reduce the size of the bond to make it more realistic for him to pay it, or does this have to go forward? And if it goes forward, there's a real world where the New York Attorney General starts moving to seize his assets. So that's one thing. On the criminal cases that you're talking about, the federal cases, he very much is running in part to...

get rid of those. Now, that wouldn't impact the state cases. He can't pardon himself in New York State or Georgia. And the Georgia case, while it has suffered some damage, is still going ahead. But everybody believes that, and the New York DA has, the Manhattan DA has said this, that they would stick to the OLC, the Justice Department Office of Legal Counsel opinion that

you know, a sitting president is not going to be imprisoned essentially. I'm shorthanding it, but so yes, he, he would either direct the DOJ to drop the charges or he would seek to pardon himself, which is legally fraud because there would be legal challenges to that. But either way, yes, that is the scenario we are looking at. Um, but he's still got the, the, somebody who used to work for him sent me a message, um,

That in their opinion, the things he fears the most are people questioning his financial worth, which we've obviously seen over and over again. And

prison. And, you know, these things are colliding in the final seven months of this election. It is karmically beautiful. Or if he worries about the same two things in exactly that order as well. They're never going to catch me. There ain't no jail made. Hey, so I want to obsess because it makes me so happy on the seizure thing. If he can't find any suckers to lend him money and the government actually moves the seizure, do they auction? Because I'd like to start a Kickstarter to

bid for the garage at Mar-a-Lago and open a Jeb Bush museum just to drive him stone cold crazy. Glad we've reached the serious portion of our conversation. I don't know how it actually works if there is a seizure, but I assume that yes, they could actually sell the property off or more likely they would find a way to liquidate it. I'm bidding. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors.

Murphy, we should touch on the Dayton rally was not just because they love to be in Dayton on that particular day. Trump got heavily involved in, again, a Senate race. A key Senate race.

Yeah, huge Senate race. And, you know, Murphy, why don't you talk a little bit about that? I mean, real quickly in disclosure, I'm a Matt Dolan guy because I believe in civilization and traditional conservatism. So what you got is Sherwood Brown, formidable Democratic incumbent, though, in Republican tilting Ohio running for reelection could be the fulcrum race to control the Senate. So he had a big election.

predictable GOP primary with the frontrunner endorsed by Trump, and that made him the frontrunner, Bernie Moreno. And then the Secretary of State's running and a state senator who did not chase the Trump endorsement, not a never-Trumper, but just more of a regular Rob Portman, Mike DeWine Republican named Matt Dolan. So off they went, and of course, Bernie Moreno gets in front, has Trump's support,

Then there's all kinds of trouble in the newspapers there about allegedly they deny it, yada, yada, yada. He was putting up gay dating profiles 10 years ago looking for parties. They've denied that. I just want to make that clear. They strongly deny all of it. They strongly deny. But, you know, the local papers printed it all. The AP led the coverage because they had geodata that indicated, well,

Go ahead and deny it, but it's worth discussing because, you know, it's unclear. Blah, blah, blah. So then there was a panic. The Ohio Party has heard about this for a couple weeks internally. Big panic went public. Mike DeWine, the meat and potatoes Republican governor there, very popular, did kind of a surprise endorsement of Dolan. So now in the polling...

Dolan, going into the last weekend, and today being election day, so last weekend, has shot to a small but meaningful lead. So what's going to happen there? There was big, and I'm curious if you picked up anything on your Trump radar, Maggie, that

There was speculation, does Trump go to the rally? Because he can't ever lose. Superman, you know, does he want to, with his candidate flames, does he really want to be the final rally? On the other hand, will the rally help push him over in a Republican primary and therefore save Moreno's bacon and avoid an embarrassing loss for Trump? So today we'll find out in Ohio. But this is the first potential big statewide iceberg primary for Donald Trump in a key state. And of course, finally, the Democrats...

with a tactic they've done for years, but they've really adopted lately. They're spending about two to three million bucks on TV trying to lift up Moreno because they know he's a stone cold loser in a key race in the fall could even affect the outcome of Senate control. So boy, we have the, uh,

uh, the soap opera of, uh, Sandusky rolling out in Ohio today. Any thoughts, comments, insults? What do we think? A couple of things. I know a bunch of strategists who are less bullish than you are on the chances that Sherrod Brown definitely defeats Bernie Marino in the fall. I just think that the state has changed so much and the climate has changed so much. So I would just, that way. Um, number one, number two, um, uh,

uh you know i i i we avoid predictions but uh the you know the the merino folks

feel pretty confident and I don't think it's just for our benefit after Trump came in to do this rally. I mean, Trump, yeah, it's a big test for Trump. The fact that Trump had to come in to kind of carry Marino over the finish line is pretty revealing. There's a lot of people, including people who like Marino, who think he's been a pretty underwhelming candidate and that he didn't spend the money that they thought he was going to and on and on and on. But that said,

I don't know that this is going to dent Trump's record in primaries so far. I would be surprised if it does, although it might be closer than people think it will be. You know, but it is another...

It's another expenditure of political capital that I think Trump would probably not want to have to be making right now. And I think there's an argument to be made that that rally was not – yes, it was base-juicing. But like every recent public appearance that Trump has made, it's filled with all kinds of comments that then foster their own controversy. Yeah.

Yeah, and somewhat reminiscent, Murphy, of Trump coming in at the end of 2022 for J.D. Vance. That's right. That ended up working out. That's the analog they're using. Yeah, that ended up working out well for Republicans there. And we'll see later tonight whether Trump adds, well, whether Trump adds potentially

another huge ally in the Senate or, and what does that mean? I agree. Look, I agree that Ohio is a very tough place, much, much different than it was in 2008 or 2012 or even, you know,

2016. Brown is a good candidate, though. He's the most effective stump populist in the Democratic Party. But it's still Ohio. Right, Mike, and you do hear that from Democrats a lot to articulate that point. I do think that the changing composition of that state is worth it. Maggie, are you accusing me of Democratic spookiness?

spin in the 30 years we've known each other. Only in that moment, not most of them. I've never taken the sorry socialist line of the democratic spinmeisters like Gibbs. I just think this is the most interesting Trump era primary I've seen to kind of get to this point.

It's the only really competitive primary this year, too, in the Republican side. That's worth watching. It's like they threw the basketball tournament without any basketball games. So now we take a smaller game and decide it's really, really big. But Dolan's a little different because he was able to partially self-fund.

That's true. Put him in the hunt more, more than the average regular conservative type. So anyway, we will find out today. You know, another thing Murphy that happened over the weekend that, that, that, I mean, again, we can, we can talk about the Trump rally, which generally goes for hours. We could talk about it for hours. You could play the bloodbath. You can play, you could play, you know, he's, he's, you know, now attacking and thinks Liz Cheney should be in jail. He, you know,

unspeakable things about immigrants and whatnot. Another, I want to segue though, to I think what is a fascinating and now recurring story in the general election. And that is, Sunday morning, we all popped up to stories that Joe Biden and his campaign and the Democratic apparatus are currently sitting on about $155 million cash on hand. That's up

From January's total of about $130 million. I don't think Republicans have given us their total yet, but at the end of January, Trump and Republicans were at approximately $40 million. There's a hole in the boat called the Trump legal vampire strategy to suck the RNC dry, sell off the furniture, and totally cannibalize that place.

Yeah, well, what's the big both of you? What do you what do you make? I mean, I'm look, I'm I feel like we we got to a point probably in the not too distant past where.

These races, both Senate races and presidential races, there was just so much money that the reality of it is both sides had enough money to get their message out, even if one side marginally outspent the other. I will say this, you know, 100 plus million dollar advantage starts to set up some real structural challenges for Trump and for potentially for Republicans down the ballot as well.

All while they're sort of dismantling the field operation at the RNC and moving everything to... And the state parties are full of people in, you know, Paul Revere suits and aluminum foil hats. Yeah, totally. Plus, your paper today, Maggie, broke a big story on outside spending. Yeah. And so what do you, Murphy, well, both of you, what do you make of what the impact of this could be, again, in a world in which...

there's a lot of billionaires on the Republican side that if they wanted to could write checks, but to your point, Murphy, maybe they don't want to end up paying lawyers. Trump has alienated the country club money in the party. Not all of it, but most of it. But he still has low dollar donor money and he's taking them, those donors, God bless them, who he sees as rubes,

for a ride on legal funds and Laura Trump's makeup trailer needs an expansion. You know, it's, um, it's trouble. Oh, come on. You know, you know, don't try to get into this. I think that, um, what I think is that there's no question that there is just Robert to your point, there is absolutely a structural disadvantage that Republicans have

not just Donald Trump right now. There is no question that there are a lot of Republicans who, when you talk to donors, they will say this privately. It's notable that none of them has said it on the record yet that I've seen, and certainly they won't say it on the record when I talk to them. They don't want to pay for Donald Trump's legal fees. And so what you hear over and over again is, I don't want to put out money because I don't know what it's going to. And

And I don't know how it'll be used. Now, Chris LaCivita, when he was moving into the RNC, made a big point of saying, you know, no one is talking about using the RNC money for Donald Trump's legal fees. Well, the RNC has previously paid Donald Trump's legal fees, not just while he was in office, but out of office. And so there is a reason this is getting asked. And Donald Trump needs money. That having been said, one question mark that I have about this cycle is,

It is true what Mike says, that Trump has alienated sort of the Bush-McCain era, Romney era country club politics.

money. But there are other billionaires. And then the question is, do they give to dark money groups where they don't have to disclose? And I think you are going to see a fair amount, or not see, as it were, a fair amount of that this cycle. Because I think what we have seen, the lesson of the last, the previous two general election cycles was that a lot of donors felt very burned by having their names on FEC forms. And I think if they feel like they can find a way to

give. Yes, it is true that a lot of Republicans, you know, don't want to pay Trump's legal fees, are turned off by things he says, are disturbed by his election lies. And yet the antipathy that these folks have for Biden, I think, really gets... No, it's out there. ...understated here. In the same sentence, I will hear, you know, Donald Trump is...

But I simply can't stomach another four years about it. And so I don't quite know what that means in terms of an available pool of money, regardless of whether we know who's giving it. But it is apparent that at least in terms of the

the disclosed side that Joe Biden is going to have a lot more. But Biden will have dark money too, because no question, the average billionaire donor says if they're on the right, they're like, I don't want to be embarrassed by Trump. I don't want to disclose or I don't want my business to be tortured by labor. I mean, I've heard that directly from more than a few. And then on the left side,

you know, there's some concern about anonymity. So I think... No, I think I agree with you, Mike. You're right. I don't want to understand. Biden will beat them probably 60-40 in outside money is my guess. But you're right. It won't be a billion to nothing. And I think the number in your paper today is what? 1.2 billion pledged in outside groups? Which is always inflated a little, by the way. I want to do a quick segue. I'm going to give you credit and tell me if I'm wrong. But I think you and Jonathan broke this story. Jonathan Swan said,

that we could be looking at the return of Paul Manafort. We actually didn't break that story. Credit where due, that we had that story. Credit where due, it was Josh Dawsey at the Washington Post. It was Dawsey at the Post. Okay, sorry, Josh. But it is true. Jonathan and I also wrote it, that, yeah, Manafort is likely...

It's not even a possibility unless somebody kills it because of headlines. And frankly, I don't really think that – I think that era has ended where Donald Trump reacts to that kind of thing. Where shame makes him do something different. But it's about convention ops, right? Well, so it's convention ops. Correct. It's convention –

Bill Harris and Manafort. It's a handful of people who know how to do it. Bill Harris, there's a name I haven't heard since the 2004 RNC. But yeah, I mean, in New York City. Well, I'm giving him credit where credit was due. I didn't say you shouldn't. I'm just reflecting on how... It's a specialty job. Mike, I'm reflecting on how old I am. So don't get in my way. I'm having my moment. You're still very young, Meg. Thank you. So yes, it is a specialty job. Manafort is one of the people who, you know, he has specialty in both delegate

whipping and in convention functionality. And so that is why, but obviously bringing Manafort back comes with a, you know, a, a, a wave of controversy. You got to bolt down anything that can be sold. Well, that wasn't, that wasn't what I was saying, but Manafort was, you know, among other things, you know,

A, fired by Donald Trump in 2016, investigated as part of the Robert Mueller probe, convicted, pleaded guilty, found not to be honoring his plea deal cooperation, pardoned by Donald Trump, accused by investigators of passing campaign polling to a Russian with ties to Russian intelligence, on and on and on and on. So this is sort of what

what comes back with him. In terms of them, I think, becoming just totally immune to, you know, the normal waves of this when there's a controversial hire. Jonathan Swan and I reported last year that Trump wanted to hire Laura Loomer.

And when we report who's the right wing activist, very, very controversial. And when we reported it, it it then ended her getting hired. But Trump still continues to have her around, has her on his plane. And so I think he I think he even if he doesn't expressly regret it, I think he likes having her in his orbit. And so I think their reactivity to headlines is maybe less than it once was.

Yeah, I have to tell a quick real quick. I have a soft spot for Manafort. I've known him a long time. That said, I wouldn't let him within 100 miles of the Widows and Orphans Savings Bank. But he during the last convention when he was running it, we both did a Today Show hit in some trailer somewhere right outside the hall. And we're all packed in there. There are four people to NBC.

journalist and we're on each wing and it was a two and two thing so I'm talking to somebody and then they go to him and you know I'm off camera but I'm sitting there waiting for the thing to end to get out and I look over when they're doing the kick out and Paul looks at me from about five you know feet away on the table maybe four feet and just looks at me and mom's rescue me

Because he was dealing with the madness, the madness of the family Trump at a convention. So he is competent in that corner. So I get this. But again, another example of how bad moral compass decisions, epically bad,

are not a disqualifier for advancement in the world of Donald J. Trump. When Alex Burns and I were at Politico together, we wrote on Alex's suggestion a piece about Paul Manafort because he got caught up in the Yanukovych fallout in Ukraine because, you know, Manafort has done a ton of foreign work over the years.

And my favorite anecdote from when we were doing this profile was that during the Dole campaign, he became known for sort of twirling his coat, overcoat very dramatically over his shoulders. And as he was leaving a group of his colleagues, he did that. And one of them said, there goes the Count of Monte Cristo. And that became his nickname. Just quickly, self-indulgence. I don't know if this is true, but let me do the Philippine story real fast because have you guys heard this?

This has been all over Republican world for 20 years. And a famous Republican consultant tells it. The famous consultant, not me, went to the Philippines to give a speech maybe 10 years ago. And a bunch of the old Marcos people took him out to dinner. And it went on and on and on. Just wants to get on the plane, go home. And they said, you know, the one thing that broke our great former President Marcos's heart was he never got a thank you letter from President Reagan for the money.

And this former presidential campaign manager said, what money? I don't know anything. Well, weren't you on that campaign? Yes, I was senior official on the Reagan reelect. Well, your Mr. Manafort came here and Paul was like a regional field politics director for the Northeast back on the 84 Reagan campaign, you know, dealing with all the Pauls in that corner, which is its own culture. Anyway, your Mr. Manafort.

you needed money to fight the liberals, communists and the media trying to bring them down. So we gave them the million dollars in the suitcase and they went, this former campaign manager, what? You know, so I have no idea if this salacious rumor is true, but since he is a convicted felon, I figure I can repeat it again with that disclaimer, but it is a legendary and quite believed with no evidence that I know of, uh, uh, Paul's story, an operator, uh,

of all operators. And it's... Quite believed with no evidence is really quite a phrasing for our time, Mike. Yeah. No, I'm going to work for TMZ next. I mean, it's clearly... But no, no, any senior Republican operative has heard this story. Unless you can get it on TMZ. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. ♪

Let's segue a little bit to the Biden side of this, because I'm struck in one. I think you see Biden. Biden is certainly out there more often now. He's out there. I think he's out this week in, I want to say, Nevada and Arizona. I think they're out west in the swing states. They were in Wisconsin last week. One question I have for basically the the.

The echo, essentially, of what you see in something happening in Dayton is you've got to have a campaign and a candidate that are adroit enough to exploit these fumbles or foibles or whatever they are. I think you go back to last week. I think the Biden campaign did a pretty good job.

Trump gives an interview. I think it was the CNBC phone interview, which I hesitate to call it an interview. It was more like a paid advertisement. But he answers this question about Social Security and mentions cut after he's so religiously tried to back away from that. And the Biden campaign, I think, was pretty adroit at driving that for a little bit.

Do you think, again, this is for both of you, do you think this is a campaign and a candidate that are, are they suited to do what they need to do against Donald Trump? Are they suited to take maybe something around January 6th or some of these other stuff and really kind of drive this as an issue? Because, and I'm not suggesting Joe Biden's ever going to be Donald Trump, but

Donald Trump can certainly put a phrase or put some news into the environment in a way that very few others can. How well positioned is Biden to be able to play essentially campaign right now? Well, I think you're asking two different questions. I mean, I think the campaign has a lot of professionals. I think Janet O'Malley Dillon is quite well respected, both inside and outside the

her orbit. Um, and I think that she has a real sense of how you, how you run a campaign in this era. Um, you know, I think the white house has tended to be much slower in terms of reacting. And I don't know how much of that comes from the top bluntly, um, because the president is known to have a pretty deliberative style. Um, you have seen since Jenna Malley Dillon went over to the campaign, I think more, um,

reactivity, I think, and speed to your question. But, you know, I think my question is somewhat different watching it, which is there is an understandable temptation to

You know, and you see you see the Biden folks online sort of trying to highlight clips from Trump's rallies. Right. And they're they're doing that both for their supporters and they're clearly doing it in the hopes of amplifying things in the media. And some of the things are news, whether some of them are not.

I don't know how diffuse or targeted their messaging is going to be, right? I assume the cuts line about Social Security and entitlements will still make its way in an ad at some point down the road, let alone just that one quick cycle.

I know that they see that January 6th, or some of them do, as central to the message that they want to drive. I assume we're going to see January 6th in paid advertising. Mike Donilon was on the record with The New Yorker saying, this is going to be an issue that people are talking about. I'm paraphrasing, but this is going to be an issue that people are talking about around their kitchen tables in the fall. I don't know that that's true, that that's broadly the case, right? I mean, it's like that was a little surprising to me to see as a quote. But I do think it is a thing that will be in the circumstances

certainly back of mind for a lot of people and maybe more front of Ryan for some. I think the Biden campaign has moved slowly to a campaign phase. And I guess the way that I would answer that question, Robert, is that I've spoken to a lot of people who are around them and around what they do. And there is a sense that

for a really long time. I don't want to say everybody, but a bunch of folks in, in, in the president's world, um,

You know, we know what they think about Donald Trump. I think that I think President Biden, who doesn't come to the world that way, he I mean, he's clearly personally affronted by Donald Trump. He you know, and he and he has expressed him as as as a threat to the country. He said that very publicly. But I think there's been a bit of a disbelief that Trump could win again. And I think that that disbelief has eroded at this point.

I don't know how anybody could be disbelieving about that after October 2016, frankly. You know, I think that there was a belief by folks in D.C. and certainly by folks in the Biden White House after January 2021 that, you know, Trump was just going to kind of disappear. And there was that whole two years of, you know, the former guy, don't say his name, you

don't give him oxygen. It just sort of really misunderstood Donald Trump's decades as part of the cultural fabric and the fact that he'd been president. I mean, it wasn't like if he just left the halls of DC that he was just suddenly gone. And so,

I think there is a change there. I don't know how much time they've lost by not looking at where things were. But I think they have made a change. You know, I have a lot of respect for Mike Donilon. But if he thinks the kitchen table conversation in Livonia, Michigan...

It is going to be not about grocery costs and truck payment, but it's going to be about a threat to our balanced democracy because Trump had a bunch of nuts at the Capitol who beat up cops and went to jail, and Trump's mad about it.

He's out of his mind. If they don't move the needle, this is the thing, they gotta study the Carter Reagan election. You hear all the same stuff. Well, they hate Jimmy, nobody's gonna vote for that crazy old kook who made monkey movies, contempt for the challenger. If people wanna change up on economic management 'cause they think Biden's either failed, they're angry about the 2019 scenario we talked about, they get to have their own reasons

They think he's too old, all this stuff. And they want to make a change and they have better economic memories of Trump with all the craziness because they discount all politics is full of crazy trucks. They're going to elect Trump. You know, Biden might win the popular vote, but electoral college, he'll do it again. So they got to move that needle on Biden. It's easy at every campaign to have the meeting about, oh, our opponent's an asshole. Here's how we're going to screw with them.

Let's write negative ads. Giggle, giggle past the Fritos. That's all fun and good. And they ought to do all that to Trump. But boy, oh boy, if they don't move some Biden numbers, they're toast. And that's the hard stuff.

Because he's old, no matter what, and he's Joe and a little hard to manage. I give him some credit. I think they have made progress with the State of the Union. They're out doing stuff, but that is the ticket less than obsessing on all the nasty stuff they can say about Trump. Every PBS donor in the country is on board on January 6th. They got me on January 6th. I'm voting for Biden. But boy, oh boy, if they want to beat that guy in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona...

They got to move that Biden number as hard as it is. Yeah, no, we talked about that. I mean, I think many people have talked about sort of looking at where this race is kind of the beginning to middle of April, sort of two to four weeks away to see whether some of those numbers have moved. You know, I'm I am.

Maybe you can call me cynical. I'm not of the belief that one good speech on the State of the Union in a terribly polarized world is going to do a lot of

moving of any real numbers or whether or not a lot of the people that you need to hear that speech even paid attention to it. The numbers were big in terms of audience, which is good. But the control panel, they tweaked the dials and Biden was alive. I give him credit. Just bottle that and do more of it. And look, I... Go ahead, Mary. No, I was just going to say, Robert, sorry I didn't interrupt you, but I just, I do... You were just talking about that we were talking about the J6...

We're talking about, you know, I think that one thing I think is that when and I hear this, I hear this complaint from Democrats privately is, you know, when there's a discussion to protect democracy, it's kind of esoteric and voters don't really attach much to it. And I think you've seen the Biden campaign trying to attach it to democracy.

to rights regression, like on abortion rights and so forth, after the repeal of Roe v. Wade, although Biden himself, you know, for a while was visibly not comfortable talking about it. You know, Biden gave a speech at Valley Forge at the beginning of, I think it was the beginning of this year, not the end of last year, but honestly, it's all one big year at this point. You know, he was there. Sorry, couldn't resist the cheap age joke. Yeah.

And it was young, but it was, but it was not, um, it was very, it was a very well received speech. It was, it was, I think one of the best speeches that he's given during his presidency. Um, he has talked about democracy episodically. He has not done it consistently, uh, since Trump left office. In fact, 2021 and 2022 were, um, focused, you know, parts of the midterms were in 2022, but focused more on legislative efforts. Um,

And I think there's a question of what voters want to see, need to see,

on a consistent basis and how much of that the president's going to do. They've got to think he can run the economy or at least break it even. He doesn't even have to win it. He can lose it by four or five. Right now he's losing it by 15 in terms of who's better to manage the economy. So when they think a madman who's kind of a clown who they don't like is better at running the key job than you are, big hole in the submarine. Can I interrupt there for a second on the clown point? Because I have this conversation a lot about the two frames between

by which people tend to view Donald Trump and have over a very long period of time. You know, one is this coverage theory of, you know, of clown, right? And he certainly does any number of cartoonish things, Donald Trump, and has for a long period of time, although I would say that really started around the Ivana divorce in the early 1990s, which is also simultaneously when his business was struggling.

But the other way to look at him is as a 50 to 60 year student of power dynamics. And that to me is the right way to look at him. And so I don't know that as many voters view him as a clown as elites view him as a clown. And I think that's where there's a big difference.

um disconnect i think no there are plenty of voters who view him as a breath of fresh air and frankly a voice for their own darkest instincts but i believe the ultimate truth is he's a clown but that's me i i i i i cool i go back with trump the 93 in new jersey of christine todd whitman when he was frauding his way through atlantic city i'm just i've i've

But anyway, we can agree to disagree on that. You've got a different job than I do. I'm not disagreeing with—I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with you. I am saying that the way that—the way of looking at him that I think is the one that is relevant is as a student of aerodynamics, because I think that that is—

It is the seeing him as a clown that makes people miss the other. But I don't understand student of power dynamics. I understand him as a vessel for legitimate pain from legitimate people. I think this is a good... He has spent his... He spent his...

life, studying at the feet of both Roy Cohn and his dad in terms of understanding how to manipulate levers of power and find where they are and press. So that's what I'm talking about. But did his dad do that, really? He was a slumlord in Queens. His dad was not. No, see this. No, his dad was very close to a mayor and a governor and a massive clubhouse political force. You should read a book called Confidence Man.

You would learn some things. It was given to me. Who wrote that book? I forget. Who wrote that book? Some reporter. Herman Melville. Still on sale on Amazon.com, by the way. All right. Hold that thought. We're going to take a short break. And now, a word from our sponsors. Listener Mail.

All right, if you have a question for us, it's easy. All you got to do is email us at hacksontap at gmail.com, or you can, like we did, reluctantly enter the 21st century and leave a voicemail. We may play it on the air. Just keep it kind of short and tell us your name. You just have to go to our secret number somewhere in Chicago. Careful, don't let them know too much or you'll wind up registered to vote there. I can't even remember our number. It's so confusing. So it's on tape.

773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. You sound like you're in a hostage video. It's like, hurry, quick, trace the call and figure out where Murphy is being held. But yes, you're right. That number just roll off the tongue, right? Yeah, I don't know. We must have gone with the low bid.

Okay. That's probably the back room. Axelrod set it up, so it's probably at the Cook County Democrat headquarters somewhere next to a slot machine. Murphy, your question is from Andrew. Hey, Hacks on Tap. It's Andrew Kiso from Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Could you comment on the impact of Mike Pence's recent refusal to endorse Trump? Could this move the needle with center-right swing voters? And do you think we'll start to see more old guard Republicans publicly refuse to endorse the former president as we get closer to Election Day?

Thanks.

that if you look at the number of people who worked with Donald Trump in the first term who now say they can never vote for him and he'd be a train wreck in office, it's a pretty impressive list, particularly serious people like General Kelly or H.R. McMaster on the national security side. So there is a little bit of how many straws to break the orange camel's back on all this stuff. But I can't tell you I think it's the biggest material thing in the election, right?

And I can't tell you that Pence has a big voter army behind him, but you know,

It's water torture, drop, drop, drop. And I commend Pence for doing it. Now for Robert Gibbs, Richard, old school, emailing us. Richard wants to know, what data do we need to look at to see which way the election is going to go? Do things like GDP numbers, demographics, and voting history matter? Or is it simply just a matter of looking at the polls for a state and nothing else? And if it is just the polls, what kind of polls matter?

Robert? Well, Richard, thanks for the question. Kind of a complicated and long one. I think that directionally how the economy is feeling, you mentioned GDP numbers is important. I will say very few people are judging their own economic health based on the larger economic health of our gross domestic product.

demographics are certainly important. I think what will be fascinating in this race is how much do the demographics of what we have come to expect as sort of the truth in our elections, both on the Republican and Democratic side, how much does that change in this election? How much is that augmented? What percentage of Black voters does Biden get? What percentage of Latino voters do either of these candidates get? But if you're going to pay attention to polling,

Do not pay attention to national polling. It's obsessive. It's interesting. We talk about it. This is going to be decided in six states, and only those six states matter. If you listen to this podcast, you heard Murphy say you could have a winner of the popular vote and a different winner of the electoral college, and that's because the only things that matter are state polls.

Yeah, I just want to say hallelujah on that. National polls measure the national vote, which doesn't elect the president. In American history, there have been five times where the national vote and the electoral vote is different. And, you know, we've had a bunch of them just in the last 20 years. By the way, Robert, you know who invented the electoral college that's now kind of vilified? John Belushi. Alexander Hamilton, the one song that didn't make the musical. I'm calling for a rewrite.

So there you go. Let's see if they update it. All right. For Maggie, batten cleanup here. This is from Eric. Do you think the Republican campaign is taking a risk of overdoing the questions on Biden's age? Are they setting the bar too low and making it too easy for Biden to overcome the issue? It's a good question. I think there's two parts to it. One, Biden's

Biden's age is objectively an issue. It comes up in every focus group that Democrats have told me about that they're doing. It comes up organically in every conversation I have with, I wouldn't say low information voters, but people who are not news junkies and not necessarily political junkies. It is objectively an issue.

So it is not really it's not manufactured. The Biden folks spent a long time insisting this was a creation of the media. It's not. It's it's the magic of sight that voters can can see. However, the Trump folks have leaned very aggressively. It isn't even really into age. It's this idea of of competence and suggesting that the president is infirm.

and creating a perception that he can barely move around or they do these videos that are supposed to be of him being led to an old age home.

Uh, and, and so in that, I do think they are setting the bar very, very low. And I, you know, Donald Trump has never been, um, wise about the expectations game because he has one speed. And so everything is, this guy's terrible, this guy's terrible. And then Biden gives a, you know, a pretty effective state of the union speech and he's cleared the very low bar that Trump has set. So, uh, I think both things are true. Um,

And I think the question is just which one is more true. And the challenge, obviously, for Donald Trump is you start to see more and more his own gaffes in terms of that is true. Yes. You know, in Ohio, I think he said that he was he was running against or beat Barack Obama. So usually because he's.

stepping over himself to get in Obama's middle name that he makes an appearance at one of these rallies. Robert, before we go, we are kind of intermittent with our book club, but I think you've got a book to plug. Murphy, I got to tell you, you should read this book. I hope our listeners read this book. It is called The Lie Detectives in Search of a Playbook for Winning Elections in the Disinformation Age.

by Sasha Eisenberg. You may have read... Oh, I'm a big fan. I've got it. I'm going to read it. Then I'll get around to confidence, man. Sasha's written a lot of important and interesting books in the last sort of 10 or 15 years on campaigns, on data analytics. This is a fascinating book about...

How disinformation is fought right now. And it's a fascinating thing, Murphy. You'd love it because... Yeah, and I've talked to Sasha about it. We had an event at USC with him. And I agree. I want to join you in recommending it. And it is so apropos to the moment we are in in American politics.

Yeah, and I got to call out a couple of friends and colleagues, Jess Reese and Danny Franklin, who appear in the book, having done a bunch of disinformation work in 2020. So go give that book a read, Sasha Eisenberg's The Lie Detectives. Maggie, thank you for coming on and sharing your wisdom. Murphy, I should point out,

I don't think we've ever had a guest that apologized for interrupting any of us. Oh, my God. Interrupting is our stock and trade. If we had Axelrod in here, we'd need a jaws of life to get him to stop talking. I was flummoxed when she did that. I won't do it again. Yeah, yeah. Please. Rookie error.

I don't know whether to give you a certificate for having done that or to just continue to shake my hand. Maybe our good manners will rub off on us. I don't know. I won't make that error again, that's for sure. Thanks for having me, guys. Thank you. Thank you.