cover of episode The Panic of 1893 (Encore)

The Panic of 1893 (Encore)

2024/11/24
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主持人:本期节目回顾了1893年美国经济恐慌,这场灾难性的经济萧条导致股市崩盘、企业倒闭、失业率飙升至20%,并造成了严重的社会问题,如大规模的流浪汉和救济站的出现。这场危机远超以往的经济衰退,其影响甚至波及到美国政治格局的重塑。节目深入探讨了这场危机的起因、发展和后果,包括新泽西州国家绳索公司的破产引发的股市崩盘,以及随之而来的银行挤兑和企业倒闭潮。铁路公司破产导致相关社区和企业遭受重创,失业率居高不下,仅次于1930年代的大萧条。社会动荡加剧,例如1894年“考克西军队”的抗议游行,以及规模空前的普尔曼罢工,都反映了当时社会矛盾的尖锐。这场危机也深刻地影响了美国的政治格局,导致1894年中期选举民主党惨败,共和党获得压倒性胜利,标志着美国政治的第四次重组。货币政策成为当时的焦点,白银自由铸造运动兴起,反映了社会各阶层对经济政策的强烈关注。克利夫兰总统为补充黄金储备而发行政府债券的行为激怒了公众,进一步加剧了社会矛盾。1896年总统大选,民主党提名威廉·詹宁斯·布莱恩,共和党提名威廉·麦金莱,这场选举也直接受到1893年恐慌的影响。尽管这场危机在1897年结束,但其影响却持续数年,失业率直到1899年才降至10%以下。1893年恐慌是美国历史上最严重的经济危机之一,它深刻地改变了美国的社会、经济和政治面貌,对后来的进步时代和罗斯福新政都产生了深远的影响,但如今却常常被人们遗忘。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why was the Panic of 1893 significant in American history?

The Panic of 1893 was the worst economic depression the U.S. had seen until then, leading to a stock market crash, thousands of bankruptcies, and a 20% unemployment rate. It realigned American politics, ushering in a new political era and influencing monetary policy debates.

What were the immediate causes of the Panic of 1893?

The immediate cause was the bankruptcy of the National Cordage Company in May 1893, which triggered a massive stock market sell-off and subsequent bank failures.

How did the Panic of 1893 impact unemployment rates?

Unemployment rates peaked between 17 to 20%, the highest since the Great Depression, with Michigan estimated to have a 45% unemployment rate.

What role did President Grover Cleveland play during the Panic of 1893?

President Cleveland faced the crisis just two months after taking office. His administration was marked by efforts to stabilize the economy, including controversial financial deals with bankers like J.P. Morgan.

How did the Panic of 1893 influence the 1896 presidential election?

The economic turmoil led to the Democratic Party nominating William Jennings Bryan, known for his pro-silver stance, while the Republicans nominated William McKinley advocating for sound monetary policies and protectionism.

What were the long-term effects of the Panic of 1893 on American society?

The panic led to significant social upheaval, including the Coxie's Army march and the Pullman Strike, and contributed to population shifts westward, particularly to cities like Seattle and Denver.

How did the Panic of 1893 shape monetary policy debates?

The panic intensified the free silver movement, advocating for a bimetallic standard to combat deflation, which became a major political issue during the 1896 election.

What was the significance of the Pullman Strike during the Panic of 1893?

The Pullman Strike was one of the largest labor strikes in U.S. history, resulting in significant violence and government intervention, highlighting the deep economic and social tensions of the time.

How did the Panic of 1893 contribute to political realignments?

The panic led to a massive shift in the House of Representatives, with a 110-seat swing from Democrats to Republicans in the 1894 elections, marking the beginning of a new political era.

What was the role of railroads in the economic boom leading up to the Panic of 1893?

Railroads were the backbone of the economic boom, with the mileage increasing from 29,000 to 163,000 miles between 1860 and 1890, driving growth and commerce across the nation.

Chapters
The episode delves into the economic events leading up to the Panic of 1893, including the role of railroad expansion, stock market growth, and the immediate causes such as the National Cordage Company's bankruptcy.
  • The U.S. became the world's largest economy around 1890.
  • Railroad expansion and stock market growth were key factors.
  • The immediate cause was the National Cordage Company's bankruptcy.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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The following is an encore presentation of Everything Everywhere Daily. It was the worst economic depression that the United States had ever seen. The stock market crashed. Thousands of businesses went bankrupt. The unemployment rate hit 20%. There were soup lines and an army of homeless scattered throughout the country. And it was not the Great Depression. Learn more about the Panic of 1893, the Forgotten Depression, which realigned American politics, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. ♪

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much?

I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at midmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. History is sort of weird. There are people and events which punctuate history that gather most of the attention. This usually consists of wars and charismatic leaders or notable inventions.

These events usually are pretty important, but they're not the only events in history. In particular, economic events are often overlooked because they aren't as dramatic and their causes can't be as easily understood. For example, the Roman Emperor Diocletian was known for ending the crisis of the 3rd century and for instituting the Tetrarchy. However, the thing which probably most impacted the empire was his economic reforms, which were simply horrible. He devalued the currency and instituted a ridiculous series of wage and price controls.

Modern history isn't much different. If you asked most people to name a depression before the Great Depression, they probably couldn't do it. Yet in the 19th century alone, there were major economic downturns in 1819, 1837, 1857, and 1873 in just the United States. 19th century depressions or recessions were actually called panics because they almost always involved a bank panic. This would be where depositors would rush to a bank to withdraw their money before the bank collapsed.

Of course, the irony was that the bank run would often be the cause of the bank collapse, which made the rumors of a bank collapse usually a self-fulfilling prophecy. The previous American depressions were bad, but they were nothing like what happened in the last decade of the 19th century. Sometime around 1890, the United States became the world's largest economy.

Since the Bank Panic of 1873, the country had experienced a massive economic boom. The nation was expanding west due to the Homestead Act, there were enormous numbers of immigrants coming into the country, and perhaps most importantly, railroads had crisscrossed the entire nation. In 1860, there were 29,000 miles of railroad track in the country. By 1890, there were 163,000.

Likewise, the stock market had grown along with the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high of 78.38 in 1890. The stocks which overwhelmingly drove the market were railroad companies. These were the tech stocks of the period, and for good reason. They were high-growth companies that facilitated commerce in all the communities that they reached.

While the economy was booming, there were problems. There was a populist uprising against the railroads and other monopolies, which were felt to be exploiting farmers and small businesses. From 1870 to 1890, there was a global period called the Great Deflation, where prices generally dropped at 2-3% per year globally. Deflation meant that any loans taken out were progressively harder to pay off as money kept appreciating in value.

This led to calls for increased silver coinage and a move away from the gold standard. The immediate cause of the panic had to do with events that took place on May 3, 1893. The National Cordage Company of New Jersey was a major rope and twine manufacturer. They overextended themselves and failed to get a $50,000 loan, resulting in their bankruptcy. The next day, the bankruptcy was announced to the public, and on Friday, May 5, there was a massive sell-off of the stock market.

Over the next several months, dropping stock prices caused many banks to call in their loans, which companies could not repay. The Northern Pacific Railway, the Union Pacific Railway, and the Atchison, Topeka, and Santa Fe Railway all went bankrupt. As banks couldn't get their loans paid back, many banks went bankrupt, causing bank runs where many people tried to get their money out, escalating the problem.

When railroads went out of business, the communities they served and the businesses in those communities also went out of business. By the end of 1893, there were over 16,000 businesses that had failed in the United States, including 642 banks and 156 railroads. The bankruptcies were especially severe in the western states. All of these business failures caused massive unemployment. The estimated peak for unemployment during the Depression are between 17 to 20%.

Economic data collection during this period was fairly rudimentary, but there is a general consensus that the only other time in U.S. history with higher unemployment was during the Great Depression in the 1930s. And I should note that all of this happened just two months after President Grover Cleveland took office in March of 1893.

In 1894, the effects of massive unemployment began to appear. In March, a group of unemployed gathered in Ohio to march on Washington to protest the high unemployment and to demand that the government institute a jobs program. The group was officially known as the Army of the Commonwealth in Christ. However, it was better known as Coxie's Army, named after its leader, Jacob Coxie. The group of 500 reached Washington, D.C. on April 30th and had the distinction of being the first protest march on Washington.

The media coverage the march received was much larger than the number of people who actually marched. Other Coxie Army groups formed throughout the country, including one group in the Pacific Northwest that commandeered a train to go to Washington. One interesting side note has to do with the author Frank L. Baum, who observed Coxie's army's march on Washington. One theory that has been floated is that he used the march as the basis for his book, The Wizard of Oz.

The scarecrow represents the American farmer, the tin man represents the industrial worker, and the lion represents William Jennings Bryant. And the wizard was the president. In the book, Dorothy wore silver shoes instead of the ruby shoes that she wore in the movie. The shoes represent the issue of free silver, and the yellow brick road represents the gold standard. No one knows if this is true, but it makes for a great story.

Perhaps the biggest labor event was the Pullman Strike, which took place in 1894. The Pullman Strike is one of the biggest events in labor history in the United States. The Pullman Company was a manufacturer of railroad cars, and they were so dominant that sleeper cars were literally known as Pullmans. The Pullman Corporation had a company town located just south of Chicago called Pullman. All of the employees lived in Pullman-owned housing, for which they had to pay the Pullman Corporation.

With the economic downturn, the Pullman Company cut wages but refused to decrease the price of rent or prices at the company store. The Pullman strike will be the subject of its own episode in the future, but suffice it to say it was a really big strike. The president sent in the army to break up the strike, and as many as 40 people were killed. When the strike was quashed, it resulted in a national boycott by the American Railroad Union of all trains which used Pullman cars.

The boycott began on June 26, and 125,000 workers walked off the job. There were attempts to break the strike by bringing in replacements, which also resulted in sympathy strikes in western states. Thousands of U.S. marshals and soldiers ended the strike by being deployed to ensure that the trains ran. All of this social upheaval resulted in huge political changes.

If you remember, I previously did an episode on political realignments in American history. There had been three political alignment systems at this point. The first was after the Revolutionary War, the second was with the collapse of the Federalist Party and the rise of Jacksonianism, and the third was the realignment after the Civil War. The Panic of 1893 ushered in the fourth political era in American history. The Democratic Party of President Grover Cleveland suffered a staggering loss in the 1894 off-year elections.

Of the 356 seats in the House of Representatives, there was a 110-seat swing from the Democrats to the Republicans, the largest change in the House in a single election in American history. Unemployment rates varied throughout the country. The state with the highest unemployment rate was probably Michigan, with an estimated 45%.

There were huge increases in migrant workers looking to do anything for work. Churches opened soup kitchens. The mayor of Detroit started a community garden program to grow more food for everyone in the city. Many people who couldn't make mortgage payments on their homes simply abandoned them and moved west. The Panic of 1893 was directly responsible for large increases in population for many western cities, such as Seattle, San Francisco, Denver, Portland, and Salt Lake City.

Perhaps the biggest policy issue became that of monetary policy. In fact, this was arguably the high point of popular interest in monetary policy in American history. The free silver movement began before the panic, but was now bigger than ever. Free silver encouraged the move from the gold standard to a bimetallic standard. The movement was openly inflationary, as a deflationary environment benefited creditors and hurt borrowers.

The Free Silver Movement was mostly a rural democratic movement. Despite being a democrat, President Cleveland was not pro-silver and was known as a bourbon democrat. President Cleveland was confronted with a depleted gold supply in 1895, and to replenish the U.S. gold stock, he issued government bonds to the New York banker J.P. Morgan for $129 million. Morgan turned around and sold the bonds for an $18 million profit, which outraged the public.

The Depression was still ongoing, although improving, during the presidential election of 1896. The Democrats abandoned the Burma Democrats and nominated William Jennings Bryan for president. At 36 years old, he remains the youngest person ever nominated for president by a major political party. Bryan was known as a great orator and gained fame for his "cross of gold" speech at the Democratic National Convention, which catapulted him to the nomination.

The Republicans nominated William McKinley, who stuck to a sound monetary platform and also advocated for protectionism and higher import tariffs. McKinley won a comfortable electoral college and popular vote victory, carrying the Midwest and New England states. The panic is generally considered to have ended in 1897, but the estimated unemployment rate was still over 10% until 1899. The Panic of 1893 is one of the most significant events in American history, yet most people have completely forgotten it.

It was, however, front of mind for the politicians during the Progressive Era in the Teddy Roosevelt administration, as well as during the Great Depression in the Franklin Roosevelt administration. Even if the general population has mostly forgotten it, it doesn't change the fact that the Panic of 1893 radically changed the United States socially, economically, and politically. The executive producer of Everything Everywhere Daily is Charles Daniel. The associate producers are Benji Long and Cameron Kiever.

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