S4 Ep51: Splittin' Tickets? (with Jessica Taylor)
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark. And this week, we're taking a break from the presidential race to cover the battle for control of the United States Senate. There are a lot of seats Democrats are trying to defend, which are also in presidential swing states. Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

But the real battle for control of the Senate is running through states that Donald Trump won in 2020 and will win again in 2024. States like Ohio, Montana, and maybe Texas. Today we're going to talk to the former Trump voters who were undecided in these Senate races.

To help guide us through the Senate map, I'm delighted to be joined by Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governor's Editor for the Cook Political Report. Jessica, thanks so much for being here. Thanks for having me. I'm so excited to be here. I'm really glad you're here because I gotta say, I have a little bit of like a Senate race blind spot right now. Because if it's not in one of the states that I'm focused on for the presidential, I am just not as focused on it. And so I'm just gonna admit that upfront.

And let our listeners know that right now, the only information that I've got is the ones from the focus group. So I'm super glad you're here to break it down. Now, look, you provide real time updates and analysis for each state and their pending races, putting him into the category of how they are most currently leaning for a win. This year's Senate map is a tough one for Democrats. Give us the lay of the land.

It's very tough for Democrats. You know, which third of the Senate matters, which is up. And this is a very, very difficult map. I mean, these are Democratic senators that were elected in 2006 when Democrats flipped the Senate. They won in 2012 as Obama won reelection. And they won in 2018, another incredibly favorable year. And so now they are on the ballot with President Trump. We're looking at even a completely different partisan makeup and just partisan pull than we saw in 2012.

And so Democrats are defending 23 seats to just 11 for Republicans. So we start with Democrats have a 51-49 majority. And remember, they defied the odds in many of these Senate races. They picked up a seat. As I like to say, they pitched a perfect game. They defended every single incumbent and they managed to flip the open Pennsylvania Senate seat. And that one seat that they picked up is going to prove critically important here.

So 5149, but we have three states that are in incredibly red territory in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana. Now, West Virginia is gone. Joe Manchin retiring. I don't think he would have even probably held on to the seat even if he ran again. That open seat, solid Republican. So what we're starting out with is 50-50.

There's no room for error for Democrats. Not only does now Kamala Harris have to win the presidency, which, you know, with Biden, that was already going to be gone, basically. So she has to win and they have to defend all the rest of their incumbents. The two most vulnerable are John Tester in Montana, a state that Trump won by 16 points, and Ohio Sherrod Brown, a state that Trump won twice by eight points.

John Tester is the most vulnerable. We shifted our rating at the Politico report recently for that race from toss up to lean Republican, meaning that we see John Tester now as the underdog. This is a very big deal. And it means that overwhelmingly Republicans are the favorite to win the Senate. You know, when you look at sort of the presidency, the House, the

And the Senate, the Senate was always going to be Republicans' best chance to get a majority. It remains so. And, you know, that's why I'm excited we're talking about Texas. And that's what I'm going to be looking at at the Politico report soon, because if they have lost Montana, listen, I'm not saying Jon Tester is completely done. He is a survivor. But just that partisan lean is so hard to overcome, because in 2016, every single Senate race went the same way as the presidential race.

In 2020, only Susan Collins managed to win reelection, even as Joe Biden carried her state. Now she outperformed Trump by seven points. Even if Jon Tester does that, that's probably not enough because, again, Trump won the state by 16. I think there's a good chance he could carry it by 20. The political gravity starts to set in. I think that's what's happening for Jon Tester.

Okay, that's a tremendous overview. All right, so here's what we're going to do. We're going to go through these one at a time, and we're going to start with Ohio. The Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, has always been known as more of like a populist candidate with the ability to grab votes from both Democrats and Republicans. He got reelected by about seven points in 2018, and Trump won Ohio, as you noted, by eight points in 2020, eight years after Barack Obama had won it by three points.

Brown and his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, a Trump endorsed Republican who had dropped out of the 22 cycle. They're running about dead even right now. So let's listen to these 2020 Trump voters impressions of Sherrod Brown.

don't like about Marino is that he went to Michigan. When you're from Ohio, you care about these things. I've only seen the slander ads. I haven't done my own research, but I do know there's one distinction between both is that Sherrod Brown is what you call a career politician. And sometimes those people don't really have the people in mind. They just have, you know, the secret dollars versus someone that

They have worked in the normal sector and then got into politics or just said, I can make a change. A few great presidents were like that. He's been doing this for so long. Like to me, he's more of like, he's not about the people. He's like a puppet. He's just been doing it for so long. Everything that he just spits out comes just like with nothing behind it, no like emotion or anything. I don't know if it's true or not, but there are a lot of scandalous things. And absolutely this could, and I'm not endorsing Brown.

I worked a protection detail for Brown, and I got to talk to him extensively. And one thing I can say about him is I got a pretty good BS meter. He believes his BS. He's semi-authentic. And it seems even though I don't agree with his policies in certain regards, he at least kind of sticks to his guns according to his track record and his voting record based on a real preliminary, poorly done research by

2004 is when I started to get into politics and started paying attention to stuff, but I've really gotten into it since 2020. And I think he's done an okay job, but he's been in there for a while. And I just think that we need new blood in there, bring some new ideas back.

Again, I was a huge, huge shared Brown fan, I won't lie, when he first got elected because he comes from a portion of Ohio where I reside, and he was kind of like the local guy there, and I was always a big fan of the local guy that came up through the system. I think he's become very complacent. I think he has rested an awful lot on his laurels, and it's so hard to go and say, but I can't stand it when politicians vote –

Party lines, you know, anybody should be able to look at something and say it makes sense or it doesn't make sense, regardless of its bill that's introduced by a Republican or a Democrat or an independent. And I just feel like he is just very, very much a company line kind of guy. I think he's gotten even more liberal than when he was first elected.

I do agree that Sherrod Brown is a career politician. I would like to get somebody who was in business. I know that there's a lot going around saying Bernie Moreno did steal from his employees. He's a businessman. I've worked in sales. I've gotten stolen from from my boss. That happens. And did that even really happen? I don't know. That's what the campaign ads say. I don't agree with Sherrod Brown at all.

funding or allowing these transgender issues, especially in sports or just the mutilation of kids. So I want to play next the voters' impressions of Moreno. But before I do, you watch these focus groups, you listen to the voters. One of the things that struck me is incumbency is usually such, it just, it really does a lot for you.

And yet the voters are in a real anti-incumbent mood. Yeah. Like, I guess my question is straightforward. Like, do you think that bodes poorly for Sherrod Brown? It really does stick out to me. And I'm watching some other races in Nebraska. There's an interesting race happening. And there's a retired career politician's pack that's attacking the Republican Deb Fischer there, like just saying she broke her term limits pledge.

And, like, so having just written about that and then hearing this, that did really stick out at me. One of the sound I have to point out, though, where she said she didn't like that Moreno went to Michigan, as a college football fan, that, like, really made me laugh. So, you know, I feel like Sherrod Brown should just run that. Like, he went to Michigan. You can't trust him, you know. But...

Going back to it, you know, the one guy I think he was a security guard talking about, he'd had a good interaction with Brown. I do think he comes across as someone that is authentic, but they also feel like, you know, he was in politics in Ohio before he was elected to the Senate. And that was back in 2006. Yeah.

I mean, they really did seem to be punishing him for like he's part of the problem. And you're right. I think that, you know, a lot of his ads have leaned on things he's done in the Senate, you know, working on the Pact Act for veterans and protecting U.S. steel.

So he's emphasizing these things, but I think the average voter just says they've been there so long, they're part of the problem. And if there is this anti-incumbency mood, hearing some of these people talk about Trump too, like in 2016, it was this sort of throw out the system, let's get a different type of person who's not a politician in there. So a lot of these people really did sound very receptive to Trump.

even if they couldn't say something specific they didn't like about Brown, just that he's been there forever. Like it's time to try somebody new. Yeah. These are Republicans to be clear. These are like Republican leaning voters. But I guess a bigger question is, you know, you do these ratings and you guys are really good at considering the fundamentals and all things. Part of the fundamentals was the benefit of incumbency. We

Are we just in an anti-incumbent mood or is this a new way that voters are thinking where like you just can't stay as long as you used to? I heard in these focus groups that the people were really open to term limits. So I think that's something, you know, I hear that. But then I think it comes down to candidate quality. Who is the challenger? I think you have to give them a reason to vote for someone else.

And, you know, in 2022, every incumbent was reelected. But I think that had to do with the fact, in large part, that Republicans nominated some very off-the-wall, very weak candidates in Herschel Walker in Georgia and Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania. And so kind of can you pass that test okay? And I think Republicans have done a better job of recruiting candidates like Tim Sheehy in Montana. You know, we're going to talk more about Moreno here in a minute, but I think one of the concerns I've heard recently

about, you know, sort of looking at the Montana race versus Ohio. I did some really in-depth reporting on this when we changed our rating. One of the reasons why in talking with people working in both of these races, they feel like the Montana race has moved further, just math aside, is that she's been running positive ads. He's talked about being a veteran. He's a Navy SEAL, Purple Heart recipient. He's sort of running these positive ads. Moreno hasn't done that

He had a primary and she, he didn't, but that primary was over in March and he sort of seeded the airwaves to Sharon Brown. I mean, there were super PAC ads that were hitting shared Brown, certainly, but there hasn't been like positive ads. There's been a lot hitting on him on his businesses as a car dealer. And listen, this is still a very, very close race. It's within the margin of error, but Brown has still consistently been leading. Even when I've seen Trump winning the state by 10 or 12 and I,

There's room for Moreno to consolidate Republicans. That is where he is lagging behind, and it's voters like this that he has to do that. But looking back, if this race, if Republicans don't win, that could be, you know, a big error of, you know, not sort of telling that positive story of who he is in the same way that she he has. Yeah. Okay, great. Well, that's a great lead-in, too. Let's listen to these voters' impressions of Bernie Moreno.

For the people against Moreno, I see the ads all the time. It's Moreno fired a single mom and Moreno is stealing his employees over time and shredded documents. So again, I need to do a little bit more on staying the course or bring Moreno in.

But what I did figure out is that Bernie Marino has a pattern of flipping his opinions, of saying one thing or endorsing a cause, and then later either backpedaling or completely reversing his stance on some things like his LGBTQ support or immigration or abortion issues.

I do like the idea of somebody that comes from the business aspect of it. I do like someone that has been forced to come up through the grassroots on their own. But the idea that someone who's willing to go in and kind of change things up a little bit, which is also why I'm such a big fan of the Donald, because, again, he's not a lifelong politician.

He's someone who's not afraid to go ahead and make the hard choices. And I think that's what Bernie will do as well from a business perspective. Make the hard choices and make the hard decisions and not worry about what it's going to look like on the other side because they're doing what they really think is the right thing. I did hear a little bit recently about the immigrant stuff, especially with the debate and the Springfield, Ohio and the cats and dogs and stuff, the whole joke around that. But

Of course, both of them have made statements and both of them have taken sides on that. And I would say I lean closer to Moreno rather than Sherrod. But again, I don't know about their exact histories in the position. All I know about Moreno is he owned car dealerships, multiple. I like the thought of anybody that was successful in business, uber successful, making uber money and maybe just feeling a tug in their 40s or 50s and saying, hey, you know what?

I want to try running for office. If you own a business, you hire and fire a lot of people, you're always going to have that single mom. That's going to be a terrible attack ad if you ever run for office to say a single mom was fired by Bernie Moreno. And the overtime thing, I mean, I've worked in jobs where I've had overtime and not overtime. You can salary versus hourly and there's a blurred line and whatnot. I mean, that certainly doesn't look good, but I think I'm willing to give them a shot.

One of his dealerships is off the road, so I know a little bit firsthand. My husband is also in the car business, so insider information a little bit. I would go with him because, again, my firm belief is these career politicians, they might start out having their heart in it, but after a while...

It's just the money and all the secret stuff that we'll never know that happens behind with dealings and kickbacks and all that stuff. So if I had to vote today, I, without research, I would pick Marino, just get someone else in there. And now I'm leaning more towards Bernie Marino because I feel like, and with Donald Trump, because I feel like it would, would be run more like a business and,

you know, with, with, you know, American citizens as the shareholders in that business rather than, you know, all the other politicians. And I personally think that the government is corrupt just like everything else, but yeah, I'm leaning more towards Bernie Moreno because he is a businessman.

So you made the point earlier, the sound really bears it out, that it seems like a standard issue Republican would kind of be crushing right now. But Moreno just is failing to connect with these people. They know the negative stories about him. Now, some of them are willing to put that aside because of their anti-incumbency or because they're just Republicans and Trumpers. But is that the whole of it, that he isn't doing enough positive? Or is he just like a flawed, bad candidate? Yeah.

We hear them sort of talking about that they like a businessman. And I think that, I mean, Moreno is really trying to sell himself as the Trump candidate and the ads that he is running now are really emphasizing. I am the Trump endorsed candidate. I am like Trump, you know, in the primary, he really talked about that, about his businesses and different things, but you know, you had primary ads attacking him on this. And then the democratic super PACs, this is what they really have gone after him about stiffing workers and shredding documents. And one of them mentioned a single mom that he fired and different things.

Some of those participants, they were saying, you know, like, listen, if you have a business, like there's going to be things that happen, you know, and different things. So I think some of them are sort of willing to excuse that. But just the fact that he hasn't run ads to sort of explain that or refute it or, you know, talk about I am a businessman and I created jobs and here's what I did. I just don't feel like he's told that story. And when I talked with people like Republicans there and they've pushed back and said, we just have to emphasize that he's the Trump candidate and that might work.

When I was talking with people about this race, it drew a lot of comparisons to J.D. Vance in 2022. You know, this was an open Senate seat, so they weren't running against as entrenched an incumbent as Sherrod Brown. But J.D. Vance was really underperforming with Republicans, like Republican super PACs had to go in and save him. He was running against Congressman Tim Ryan, who's sort of in the populist image of Sherrod Brown. But again, I don't feel like you can kind of replicate who Sherrod Brown is.

And so there was not any Democratic money that came in for him, but the Republicans really had to come in and bail him out. And so when I've been talking to people about the race, they're like, we've just got to continue pouring the money in. Bernie Moreno is also a... People didn't really bring this up, but he's also dealt in blockchain. So with crypto, there's a big crypto super PAC that has come in really big for him. They are sort of starting to run some more positive ads talking about he's a father and a husband and different stuff. But like...

talking about who he is, that's what I feel like is still missing. And I think most of these voters, except for maybe one or two, were certainly more inclined to vote for Moreno when they were pushed, they were going to vote for him anyway. But like, he hasn't solidified that yet in the same way. And that's why I think we still have this race and toss up because it's, it's not in the same position as Montana is. And I think some of that really has to do with

has Moreno sort of put in the work. I've talked to, you know, at least a dozen Republicans saying like he seeded the airwaves to share a Brown over the summer. And that was a really big mistake in the same way that when I'm looking at that Montana race, that Tim, she, he did not, he was consistently up and he was running those positive ads, but like Republicans are still having to put in the work and resources here and,

Remember, too, that candidate dollars go further. So I think if Moreno himself had spent on the air this summer instead of sort of waiting until August. Why didn't they spend this summer? Was it a resources constraint or did they just strategically not think they needed to?

I haven't really gotten a good answer to that, but I think that, you know, there is a question of, you know, in the summer, were people really tuning in? They did have a small buy around the debate and things that were really sort of tying around to Biden and different stuff. They were sort of riding this bike and then obviously all of that changed. They went up with a digital ad with Harris and stuff. You know, so I think the argument was like, were people really paying attention in the summer? And I think that is a question too, but like even spending in the spring after you just survived a brutal primary. Got it.

Okay. So because Democrats are so on defense in both Ohio and Montana, but as you keep pointing out, these are actually two different races in terms of how much defense they're playing. If they were going to do anything, if they were going to fight to not be down on the Senate, they got to pick up a Republican held seat as well. And I guess the most realistic chance to do the

is in Texas where Democratic Congressman Colin Allred is trying to unseat Ted Cruz, the famously awful incumbent Republican. Cruz bested Beto O'Rourke in his last race by three points. And so I want to move to Texas and talk about how these Trump voters in Texas talked about Cruz. And I stress that all of them voted for Trump in 2020 and are going to vote for him again because I think that tells you who is saying this stuff about Cruz. Let's listen.

I got annoyed at him when we had Snowmageddon and he cruised off to where he cruised off to and didn't feel engaged. I think he's a pompous asshole, excuse me. Colin seems to be a little more moderate, although I've always voted right, but I just dislike Bruce so much, so I'm really torn between that.

I allowed myself to be under the impression that Ted was for the people. And then even with the Cancun trip as well, just seeing that things haven't changed, certain things aren't getting done, all the corruption as well, and things that are just being swept under the carpet, I would say. My dad was federal law enforcement, who was pushing more of an agenda that excited me and my family more at the time.

There was a lot of things that I didn't agree with, and that's why I went with Cruz initially. But in recent past few years with COVID, whether the electrical crisis, his Cancun, him coming on social media, coming on the news and saying he's going to do X, Y, and Z and not following through with it. There are some things where, yes, he can say he wants to do it. I know he doesn't have power. And there are certain times when he does have the ability to make change and he doesn't.

He's voiced a lot of opinions about healthcare in Texas, about women's rights and about border issues. Three things I'm very passionate about. One, because I'm in medical school, my family was law enforcement, so we deal with a lot of that stuff. And he can definitely put his foot down in certain areas.

When we had that snowstorm, he didn't do anything about that. And I can't remember when they had those kids died. Was he with that or was that Abbott? They didn't do anything about the kids that got killed in Uvalde. Yeah. So I was like, I mean, they could have done something about it and then they didn't do anything about it. That was horrible.

I think that on the surface, I identify with a lot of his beliefs and what he says, like gun rights, his family values, all that kind of stuff. But when push comes to shove, he does not do those things. So for me, I'm almost like, screw those two. Let's get somebody that's in this panel running for Senate. And that's the Cancun debacle is kind of when I started kind of being a little bit more, not necessarily to the other side, but just undecided.

I don't think he's passed anything, I guess, of merit since he's been in legislation. It seems like he's just toying the line, saying enough to get there, kind of just gamesmanship.

After the winter stroke that happened, sort of kind of abandoned everyone and just kind of left. I stopped following him. I stopped trying to figure out what he was doing. I was like, there's no point of it because they really don't care about us. They just care about the votes and they come around when they want the votes. And then they go away after like a month and then they come back again when they need the votes. So I stopped doing it. And that is my opinion about him. And then when the doctor told us that if there was a complication, we

We couldn't do anything about it. Then that's when I started Googling and I realized what he had done with women's rights. And then I was just more even madder. So I was like, okay, this time around, I don't know what I'm going to do. So my husband and I are both like, we don't know. Because I'm not the only one who has a problem. I'm sure other women have the same issues.

Okay, so first of all, my producer wants me to say that everybody in this group was going to vote for Trump except one person who was going to go either third party or leave it blank. This person was not sure. So...

Sounds like Cancun left a lasting impression. Yeah. Has that been your experience with why Cruz is kind of underperforming Trump there in Texas? I mean, I think Ted Cruz is sort of a special individual anyway. I think that there's sort of like an asterisk beside of him that, you know, he's had weaker numbers and certainly he is a polarizing figure. You heard some of the language that people use there to describe him that I'm not going to repeat. Spicy language. Yeah, I'm not going to repeat it, but...

I do think, you know, in talking with some people about this race, it was this where they had this massive power outage. The power grid fell. It was an ice storm. I mean, people didn't have power. They were freezing to death. And he was on a vacation with his family in Cancun. And he got so much grief about it. I mean, there was like...

heavy coverage of this. Like there was even a photo of like their dog looking out the window, you know, and like they were following him to the airport and he came back and he's rolling his suitcase and everything, you know, he just got so much grief there. And in talking with people heading into this race, it was like, that's what hasn't been litigated. Like to hear, um,

This focus group kind of very much crystallized that, that like, could this turn this race? Because listen, I remain skeptical about Texas. We still have this race rated as likely Republican, but not lean, not likely, likely. Yes.

So it's not in the same category as like a Wisconsin Senate that we have, Arizona Senate, Nevada Senate, and Pennsylvania Senate are the other races all in presidential swing states. Could that change in the coming weeks? It could. And watch our Space and Political Report. I will give a tease for that. Oh, I do. Yes. But if they need another seat, which by our calculations, they will, they're down in Montana. To me, Texas makes the most sense. We have Texas and Florida and likely Republican seats.

And I think in talking with sources, and when I look at this, there's reasons why Texas makes the most sense to go in on. Listen, Rick Scott is also not a super popular incumbent. You know, he was governor before, then was elected for the Senate in 2018. But he's won very, very close races before. Democrats kind of refer to him as Landslide Rick, you know. And he's another polarizing figure, certainly. But like Ted Cruz is like a nationally known figure. So he

when you're a Democrat running against him, you get the fundraising help. So Colin Allred, this was their best recruit here. I mean, where they didn't have a lot of places to recruit since they're playing defense. They convinced Colin Allred, you know, he won in 2018, won a swing seat, but his district had actually been drawn as a very safe Democratic district now in redistricting. So he gave up a safe seat where he could have held that for a very long and risen up the House ranks, potentially in leadership, to run for this that I still think is a long shot.

So they have him. He's been fundraising effectively. And then I look at Florida, where you have Debbie Mooker-Sell-Powell. She does not have the same fundraising pace yet as Allred has had. And also Rick Scott can write himself a check. He's a billionaire. Ted Cruz cannot. So I think just for those reasons, even though I think Florida might be a little closer at the presidential than Texas, I still think both are very hard. So for those reasons, I do think Texas, when I'm talking with my sources, like

I think you have to pick one. I don't think you can do both. They're both too expensive of states. And it still would require, I think, a very big investment just because Texas is so big and has so many media markets. But Texas makes the most sense. And when I was listening to these focus groups, it really crystallized why I think you have this X factor there. And I think it is that Cancun has not been litigated and all read out with an ad.

I think his ads have been very strong too. Al Red's also a former Baylor football player, played for the Titans and then was in the Obama Justice Administration. You know, he was like, this title is football hurts. He's like, I've been hit a few times. I have screws in my neck to prove it, you know? And he's like, but what really hurt was when Ted Cruz abandoned Texas and different stuff like that. So they're starting the message on this, but like, I don't think these people had even seen those ads. Like this was organic, like people bringing this up really. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. Well, I want to get into what they had to say about Colin Allred. I actually was just at the Texas Tribune Festival a week or two ago, and Allred was there and actually did an interview with Tim Miller. And he is a good recruit. I mean, Beto got so much attention and was so nationally popular. And I would say Colin Allred hasn't had the same kind of zip or riz. So let's get into what these voters know about Allred.

Yeah, I remember seeing that he is trying to do something about the immigration issue.

I've done some surveys and it shows you, you know, like what some of his policies are or whatever. But, you know, when you watch certain things, you're like, wow, it makes you really like almost convinced, almost convinced that this person is, you know, better than Ted Cruz. But honestly, I can't say that I would give him my vote. I have not done my research about him.

But I feel like some of the stuff that I've seen on social media, I think he might do something about women's rights and immigration. But then again, we were told that Ted Cruz was going to do it, and he ended up not doing anything.

No, I don't know a ton about him, just that he seems to be a little bit more of my liking when it comes to border policies. But yeah, just again, it's kind of like we vote for the lesser of two peoples. We don't love anybody. I'm not following him as much as any of the rest of us. And that's because I've probably already made up in my mind that I find him just completely disingenuous.

He'll take like the gun rights stuff because, you know, in Texas, we all want to carry guns. We want to protect ourselves. He'll say something to appease a wide audience. Also, I think all red. He's not too far left and he has some border plans that I can kind of see happening, you know, as far as legal immigration, how that, you know, there's a plan for that because what we have currently isn't working. So I think that's part of the reason why I'm undecided.

I don't know most of his policies. I know a few that have stuck out to me in recent news castings and whatnot. His stance on Second Amendment rights and whatnot, he says he's very pro-gun and a healthy respect, which I believe I am too. I wrote hunting, shooting for fun and whatnot. And

I carry wherever I can just because which is what I was taught to do and whatnot. But he wants to put a bill in so kids can get access to guns and making a safe storage safe or something like that. That is expensive. Certain safes are expensive nowadays. Even just putting them out of reach is sometimes the most logical effect. But

It's kind of being told what to do that or just having the common sense to do that are two different things. And yes, a lot of people do have access to firearms that should not have access to it. Being in health care already, I've worked as a paramedic for a while, seeing a lot of the mental health issues and how it gets down to the fact of gun violence towards the end or whatnot. There's certain aspects that we should take to limit that to certain individuals.

So about half that group was going to go back to Cruz in spite of their reservations. But there were a couple of newly minted Trump all red voters in there.

And it seems, just listening to the group, seems like Allred was sort of convincing them that he had a good plan on immigration. People were pretty skeptical with him on guns or, like, it was like a mixed bag for him. And on abortion. A lot of them mentioned abortion, too. Yeah. Yeah. We're going to do a whole set to talk about abortion in just a second. But I guess my overall question for you is—

Texas. You sort of already said this. You're like, I'm skeptical. I remember writing a piece in 2020 that was like, don't mess with Texas. People always get mad when you sort of count Texas out for Democrats because they really want to say like, no, like we're getting close and you got to invest there. I mean, I think if the electoral college isn't going anywhere, they got to figure out how to pick up

another big state here. And I think getting Texas into contention now that you were drawing the connection to Florida, and I think that's a really smart connection to make because Republicans are pretty firmly in control of Florida now. And so Democrats have got to find a place to play. And I think they think that this is Texas. And yet with somebody as repellent to voters as Ted Cruz, you know,

you still have a hard time getting them over the humps. Like, what do you just tell me what you think the future of Texas is? What did Democrats have to do? I mean, as long as I've been doing this, which is almost 20 years at this point, I feel like it's like Texas is going to turn blue. It feels a little bit like Lucy in the football to me. And they got close with Beto in 2018. But that was also a midterm year. And I think just in a presidential year, this is different. So I mean, even I think if Cruz were running in a midterm year with

All right, as the nominee, I think this race might look different, but this ticket splitting that you would still have to get. And as you mentioned, there is going to be some and I certainly think that all right is going to run ahead of where Harris is, you know, she can tighten it from where Biden was in in 2020. That certainly helps all right.

He's sort of taken a line from what Harris said at the debate, and he's hit Cruz for, you know, helping torpedo the border compromise and stuff, you know, saying that like, listen, we had a solution. You say it's an issue. I agree that it's an issue that our party needs to take it more seriously, but like you torpedoed this. So they've hit him for that. But then, you know, most of the ads from Cruz and Republican groups that are in now are all on immigration. But, you know, I do think like if they can sort of make inroads there with,

Because remember, we saw like an erosion even with Hispanic voters in Texas in 2020 and in 2022 and some of those house races. So like that's not a complete given where even Latinos are in Texas. And so All Red has to make inroads there, too. This show is sponsored by HelloFresh. With HelloFresh, you get farm fresh pre-portioned ingredients and seasonal recipes delivered right to your doorstep.

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I want to talk about something else that came up in both Ohio and Texas, which is abortion, as you mentioned. And I've been of the view that when Democrats keep abortion high salience, it can like make real gains for them.

Texas is like a place where abortion is a big, big issue. It's got some of the most restrictive laws on abortion. And you did hear some voters bring that up as one of the things they worried about with Ted Cruz. Yeah, there was one woman in the focus group who had a really difficult pregnancy and thought she might even have to go out of state to get care, you know. So there was like the exact types of stories that you hear about the abortion ban and things. Yeah. I got to say on abortion, you know, because now we're asked about it so much.

that the number of stories we hear about people either having abortions or having catastrophic pregnancies, I think Democrats keeping this very high salience can go a long way for them. Let's listen to how these voters talked about abortion.

I have an eight month old.

and not to get too deep into it, but we weren't supposed to have a baby. And so it was a very risky situation. Thankfully, everything came out right. But what the doctors were wanting to do at first to try to help me for the situation couldn't have been done because it could have possibly harmed the baby. And so they were like, well, you can go to another state to get this taken care of. And I'm like, what? I'm pregnant. I wasn't even expecting it. What are you talking about? So it's like,

That really was a big eye-opener for me. Putting laws on women's reproductive organs is just not okay. There are no laws about men's.

Also, I have two kids that I've wanted. We also had a miscarriage. And if I would have had a later term miscarriage, I would have needed technically an abortion, which is a DNC procedure that could have saved my life instead of having other tissues still in my uterus. So abortion procedures are not always just ending the life of a fetus. It's taking care of the woman. Same thing if there's a polyp growing in your uterus, it's a DNC procedure.

that is also considered an abortion because you're taking that unnative group of cells out of there. I think it should be whatever the woman wants. It's her body. They teach you my body, my choice these days. But at the same time, why are we having fights over them? And it should never be a political thing. I kind of like relate it with vaccines. Like if you want to mandate vaccines and things like that. And I know that's also a touchy subject, but

But it goes along with like, I should have a choice. I should have a choice. But my choice is that I wouldn't. So it's hard for me to kind of pick a side there. But I think it's going to be hard for a lot of people. What right do men have to decide what a woman does with her body? How unbelievably arrogant and pompous?

That just disgusts me. And it's really, it's also about applying your own religious beliefs. And I guess that's why we elect people. We align ourselves with their beliefs. I just find it disgusting that a largely dominant male government feels that they have the right to tell a woman what they can do with their bodies. I mean, sorry, I got pretty strong feelings about that. I think it's disgusting.

I don't believe anybody should use it as a form of birth control, obviously. But your body, your choice. Nobody should have the right to decide that but you. It should not be in our laws. It should not be an issue at all. Even with the health insurance companies, they shouldn't have a right to say, no, you can't have one. It's your body, your choice.

An abortion is not something that I would personally do, but I don't say like with, I don't feel like I have the right or the government has the right to tell, you know, if they can or cannot have an abortion. I feel like that should be their choice.

So how did the immediate aftermath of Dobbs in 2022 change the GOP's campaign strategy? There was a bulwark piece not that long ago about how Ted Cruz has gone really quiet on abortion after being sort of an abortion warrior for—

for a long time. Like, do you think that Republicans are changing course on how they talk about abortion? And how are they dealing with sort of IVF and the other things? Yeah, we have seen some Senate candidates and even gubernatorial races try to talk in more personal terms. Like in Nevada, Sam Brown did an interview with his wife where they talked about where she had an abortion before they were married. And I

I think there's trying to be, okay, listen, we understand this is a very difficult scenario. And, you know, emphasizing, you know, in Nevada, certainly there's less restrictions than in Texas and different things. So, you know, I think we haven't seen Cruz talk about that as much. And I think we're going to see All Red really emphasize that. You know, in Ohio, they had a referendum last year where they did roll back the more stringent abortion laws and things too. And in Montana, there also is an abortion referendum on the ballot.

And that is a state that has more of a libertarian bent that actually has more lenient laws than you might think for a red state. Though clearly we've seen with Kansas and Ohio and different things, it's not just blue states or even purple states that are consistently voting for more open access.

So I think we saw it certainly. I don't think Republicans were prepared in 2022, you know, and I think it was magnified by the way you had candidates talk about it. And we're even seeing in some other racist things that they said in 2022 are still coming up for David McCormick.

We talked about, you know, not wanting exceptions and things, too. You know, he's revised that in different things. But when you have that video, we're going to start seeing that. And we are seeing Democrats now are starting to air heavily in Montana on abortion. And with Tim Sheehy saying this is murder and.

You know, Moreno has gone back and forth, like not committed to saying he wouldn't support a national abortion ban. So you're really hearing that from Brown's campaign and from Democrats saying, you know, this would supersede the Ohio law. But then in Texas, you have these stories where, you know, that law is so restrictive. Democrats really think this is an issue right now that can close late.

We've seen this in our polling we've done at Cook and our Swing State project, that voters are blaming Republican Senate candidates more on abortion than they are on Donald Trump.

This was even asked at one point, like none of them believed that Trump would support a national abortion ban, even though in that debate, he was asked and was given multiple chances to say he wouldn't, you know, when that really stuck out to me in the debate. So this is the heavy rotation I'm starting to see in the ads and like week seven where we're in. And so could that change things? But then when I was listening to these focus groups that they had very strong feelings on it.

And I thought that when your moderator circled back that that might have impacted it, but it really, really didn't seem to. So is this just the partisan leaner? They're not seeing it as as much of an issue or because, you know, Ohio has voted that way or does it matter as much, you know, because you do have the ability now that you can vote now.

I mean, I think we're absolutely going to have in Florida and other places where it's on the ballot that you're going to have people that are going to vote for the referendum, but also still vote Republican. And we've seen it in 2022 in the midterms, but we haven't seen these referendums be on the ballot yet in a presidential year. So I think we just don't fully know how that's going to impact the vote. Yeah, I agree with this. I think it's pretty complicated, but if I had to guess...

I would say that there are some people who are absolutely moved by abortion because I think a lot of people are like, wait, I don't understand. Abortion really matters to them. They'd vote against abortion restrictions in a referendum, but then they'd go vote for the candidate who's much more likely to be anti-abortion. And I'm like, yes, true. And in fact, I think that the abortion referendum –

It can both help the Democrat in the sense that it can turn out more people who are likely to vote for a Democrat, but it can also create an opportunity for these right-leaning independents to be like, okay, well, I can cast a separate vote on abortion and I can sort of disaggregate that from the actual candidate where then they feel more of a permission to vote for the Republican candidate to say like,

Say it because they're going to do all the other things that I like, even though I'm not big on abortion. And abortion, maybe for some voters, it is the most important issue. But for a lot of people, immigration is incredibly important. The economy is incredibly important. So I think these voters we were seeing here in these focus groups, they were not single issue voters by any means. That's right.

Okay, now at long last, we will turn to Montana and how the Trump 2020 voters talked about the race between Republican businessman Tim Sheehy and the incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester. You've already hit this a lot, so let's jump right into what the voters said about Montana.

Yeah, I mean, Tester, pretty negative of him. You know, he's gone along with a lot of Obama and Biden's policies over the years. He says he's going to help the border, but then takes down policies. And he's a pure politician, which I just think is not the right move. I think more business minded people in there to actually make good decisions for us.

I would say, though, on the Sheehy side, there's a lot of like slander and very negative ads against him. Like Tester must have spent a ton of money for that, which then makes me think like, well, is Sheehy the right one? You know, as a business manager, I think it's great. But I don't know, like all of his policies and what he really stands for, because I feel like he's had less of rallies and things, or at least one that I've noticed. So it does kind of lead me to be on the fence a little bit.

Tester's the incumbent. He's been around 40 years. I am a strong proponent of term limits. All you see are just negative, negative, negative ads against Sheehy. Military guy, former SEAL. I've got buddies that were in the SEALs. I have a really close buddy who was Sheehy's CO, which is commanding officer.

Said the guy is just legit. And the fact that he got out of the SEALs, started a business, sold it and made a lot of money. It was a drone business and he sold it to some bigger company. Now he does aerial firefighting and that's his business in Montana. I mean, you're going to sit there and attack a Navy vet, a true war hero because he got decorated.

And somebody that puts out fires and testers a farmer, a career farmer, his family's a bunch of farmers. So, I mean, you know, something happens. It's she he's now business. It's going to come down and save your butt. And so that's one of the things. And flip side, you know,

Looking at Tim and saying, what is his aspirations? Is this just a stepping stone? It kind of feels like that. Kind of feels like another Trump, which is fine because he's a businessman. Have no problem with that whatsoever. I think we need more business minded folks in office versus politicians. So but that being said, you know, what can he get done? We'll see. OK, everybody on here's I'm pretty sure there's going to vote for Trump.

And all of us are undecided on this Senate race, right? The Democrat, the incumbent versus newcomer Republican coming in. If Trump is elected, this is a Senate seat. It's a Senate race. If we don't have people that can work with him across the table to get things done, we'll be in the same boat. He's going to make it better. He's definitely going to do what he does. And I'm 100% behind that. The Senate and the House race is going to be huge when they hit.

So I know Montana is a pretty Republican state and Tester is actually a Democrat and he's been in there for a good while now. And I think, you know, based off of my conversations with a lot of locals and, you know, just all the advertisements and, you know, discussions that you hear, he basically understands the farm and the lynching life, but nobody necessarily agrees with all of his policies from the

from the Democratic side, I would say that, you know, his saving grace is that he usually tries to, you know, at least claim that he's for Montana. Why? I think he's, he's might be in pretty rough shape, um, come around this, this election season. A lot of people that I know who have voted for him in the past are, um, much more likely to vote for Sheehy. So this is the part where I'm going to let you guys know that these voters, because they're all undecided, um,

tend to fall into the more low information. So like we would push them on a ballot test at the end. Like if it's held today, what do you do? And so people are kind of reacting from their gut instinct and many of them were kind of expressing, I need to learn more. But it's always good, you know, when people say they're undecided, that doesn't mean they don't have a lean. It doesn't mean they don't have an instinct.

I think in the Texas group, you're in a bunch of people who don't like Ted Cruz. They don't like to vote for Democrats either, but they don't like Ted Cruz. And they're trying to figure out like, I don't know, could I like this other guy enough to vote for him? Now, in this case in Montana, they were all going to vote for Sheehy when push came to shove. This wasn't like the other ones where they were like kind of a mixed bag.

And when some of them were talking about not wanting to put Democrats in charge of the Senate, that's sort of what I hear when I do Maryland groups around Larry Hogan. Yeah. You know, they're just like, I just can't give Republicans another seat, even though I think Larry's a good guy. Do you think this is about a decline in ticket splitting? Are we moving away from being people who sort of pull apart your local races and your federal races? Yeah.

I think it's just that we've seen our partisan identities change. I think people are just in their corners. You know, I've looked back and like in 1984, almost half of the Senate were senators from a different party of how their state had voted in the most recent presidential election. Wow. Yeah. And now we're, I think, down to five, five or six. So it's very small. And as I mentioned, every single Senate race went the same way in 2016, only Susan Collins in 2020. And

I also think that functionally people look at a vote for governor and a vote for Senate differently. You know, explains how Kentucky has a Democratic governor and Vermont has a Republican governor, Vermont. Phil Scott's going to win by like 40 points this time. You can vote for the person. There's no prize for having the most governors across the country. But as you mentioned, there is for Senate. I mean, this was really crystallized for me. I think similar to the Larry Hogan situation. I'm from Tennessee originally. Yeah.

The 2018 Senate race there with Phil Bredesen, who is an incredibly popular governor in Tennessee. My very Republican parents had voted for him twice. I was asking them in that race, who are you going to vote for? Because I remember you really liked Phil Bredesen. And my dad, like the people in your focus groups quoting exactly, he said, I don't want to put Chuck Schumer in charge of the Senate.

Like I'm voting for Marsha Blackburn. And I think it just shows to me, you know, why in Maryland, we still rate Maryland as likely democratic for largely that reason. You know, if Jon Tester has to overcome by 16 points, Maryland's a 33 point state. Like it's even larger for Larry Hogan. This race wouldn't even be on the list if Larry Hogan weren't even in there. But like all of the ads that I've seen for,

From Angela also, Brooks, in that race, you're just hitting, you know, Larry Hogan, he's a vote for Republican control of the Senate. And I'm seeing that breaking through, as you said, in these focus groups in Montana. Another thing that really stuck out to me from that sound that when I was listening to this too, it really crystallized something that when I was reporting out my Montana piece and made the ratings change.

sources were telling me that they Republicans did not think that Tester's attacks against she he hurt him in the same way because he's military. He's run those ads. But then the one guy who was like, he runs an aerial firefighting company, like he's fighting fires that Jon Tester needs for his farm. So like that was almost verbatim to what Republicans were telling me why they didn't think that some of Jon Tester's attacks on his businesses were going to hit. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, the other places I can think of this happening is like Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, the Republican Cory Gardner in Colorado. Like, there's just so much less room now. Claire McCaskill, yeah. Claire McCaskill, right? People that are Democrats in red states, Republicans in purple to blue states. It's going to get harder and harder for that to happen. Yeah.

You know, and really, you have to almost have, like, some type of cataclysmic event. Like, when Doug Jones won that special election in Alabama, I mean, you had Roy Moore that was accused of preying on teenage girls. You could literally be a pedophile to, like, lose now if you've got an R next to your name in a red state or vice versa, which I think is, it is a shift in our politics. Mm-hmm.

And I had not heard that stat. It used to be half the states. Almost half, yeah. It was almost half, yeah. It is gobsmacking. But what it means, and I think voters should listen hard to this piece, it means that when there's not a likelihood that the other party could win that Senate seat, it means that the primary becomes the main place where you end up litigating –

What the voters want, which means a Republican ends up getting primaried from their more extreme flank, typically. This is, I think, crystallized in the House, too, that, you know, as we see a decrease in competitive House seats, it's

your primary motivation is running for reelection. And so you're going to shore up either your right or your left flank, and that makes it less likely to want to compromise. And it's the same thing in the Senate. The remaining senators that are able to do that are from, like Susan Collins of Maine, where she ended up not needing it in 2018, but she had ranked choice voting that could have helped her. Lisa Murkowski was able to vote for Trump's impeachment, even though she was up in cycle in 2022.

Because Alaska had that top four primary system with ranked choice voting. So she wasn't going to be as susceptible to a primary. But if you're just straight out wanting to buck your party, you're going to face a primary challenge in that regard. And it might not end up well. And so you might get replaced by someone who's even more conservative in that regard.

Okay. Jessica Taylor, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to the Focus Group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. Subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark Plus member at thebulwark.com. We'll see you next week. And Jessica, we will have you back again soon. I'm a longtime fan of the pod, so it's a thrill to be on. Thanks, Sarah. Amazing. Bye, guys. Bye.