The Playoff Push with Kevin Pelton
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And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast. It's Friday morning in Los Angeles. There is barely a week plus left in the NBA regular season and things are heating up as we stand at this moment.

Kevin Pelton, how are you, first of all? I'm doing well, Zach. Did you expect that you were going to go from New York to L.A. and miss out on the earthquake? Look, I just hope the schools in Connecticut aren't falling apart because one of them had to get vacated because it's such a dump. Shout out, Connecticut. I missed it, though. I'm in L.A. Everyone here talks about earthquakes like it could just happen any minute and they don't care. Okay, so Kevin Pelton, here's where we are.

What a week in the Eastern Conference. The MVP, Joel Embiid, is back and immediately has looked pretty damn good and has led the Philadelphia 76ers to two massive wins, arguably the two hardest games left on what is otherwise a softy schedule against the Thunder at home and a

Really, really pivotal, massive playoff implications. Squeaker in Miami last night. The Sixers are now half a game behind the Heat for seventh and a game behind the Pacers for sixth. They do not have the tiebreaker against either. But number six and no play-in is in play for the Philadelphia 76ers. Meanwhile...

3-4-5 is a complete mess in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs are 46-31, but they are 11-15 in their last 26 games and something just doesn't look right. The Orlando Magic of Orlando, Florida could host a first-round playoff series, could even get the third seed. They're 45-31. And the Knicks

Got the horrible crushing news this week that Julius Randle will be out for the season. We don't know what OG Ananobi's status is. We do know that Josh Hart and Deuce McBride are never coming out of a game again, and Jalen Brunson may have to join them. They're 45-31, and the specter of Joel Embiid.

raises the question that we will talk about whether being in the 4-5 bracket in the East is actually the sweet spot for some of these teams in 3-4 and 5 instead of getting third and risking a date with Embiid. That does put you on Boston's side of the bracket. Boston is 13 games ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks. Boston, it just, I don't even know what's going on. It's crazy. In the West,

Oh my God. Can the Lakers, ninth for so long, jump the slumping and injury-riddled Sacramento Kings for eighth and get into the varsity half of the play-in tournament? We have, at least for the time being, a raucous three-team race between the Suns, the Mavs, and the Pelicans for seeds five, six, and seven, i.e. avoiding the play-in. And other teams could very much join that race, including Sacramento and Pennsylvania.

the Lakers. Tari Eason made the Warriors very mad by doing something on Instagram and wearing a t-shirt. Goodbye, Rockets. You are out. Warriors are in. Still intent. Still in the junior varsity bracket of the play-in tournament. And by the way, between the play-in and this jumble at the top of the Western Conference between Minnesota, Denver, and Oklahoma City, who are separated by essentially nothing,

In the Western Conference, even if you wanted to game with the seedings and play with your matchup and try to manipulate this, you can't because you don't know where Denver is going to be. The hovering specter of the Denver Nuggets. You want to play with seeding? You want to be third? You want to be seventh? You want to be sixth? You don't know where they're going to be except if you're in four or five, you will at least not play the Nuggets.

in the first round of the playoffs. KP, I checked with our buddies at Stats and Info. This is the third. When Minnesota, Denver, and Oklahoma City all had 23 losses at the same time earlier this week, it was the third latest into the season in the history of the NBA that three teams at the top of either conference had the same number of losses. And tonight, a full slate of NBA games happened.

conflicting with the women's final four that's i don't like that in all playoff implications all over the place the two most important ones oklahoma city against the pacers which has implications in both conferences for the race for six in the east and the race for first in the west and minnesota phoenix is a massive heavyweight clash in phoenix where the men's final four is going to be tomorrow kevin pelton

What a final week we have in store between the Jumble and the Top of the West. So everyone's got to keep trying. You know, there's just there's no games to be played between the Jumble in the middle of the East, between the Embiid wildcard, just just leaping right back into play.

It's going to be a fun last 10 days of the season. I don't remember one where there were so many. There's even a race for 9th and 10th in the Eastern Conference between the Bulls and the Hawks. We're not going to talk about those teams. Sorry, Bulls and the Hawks. I don't remember going into a week with so much sort of in play all across the standings. Do you? Is this an unusual number of like just total mystery seeds in play?

I think so. I mean, it's certainly a fun contrast to last year when I recall. I'm usually in Portland during the last week of the regular season because the Nike Hoops Summit takes place down there and all sorts of team executives and skate outs are gathering to watch

uh... high school prospects and some of the best international prospects and you know last year going after the the scrimmage that u_s_a_ basketball played to watch games in a local bar between scrimmages and it was like can we find a game with that matters where both teams are actually playing anything resembling an actual n_b_a_ lineup as opposed to you know a bunch of g-leaguers and and everybody's on the injury report and for the reasons you've laid out

because there are so many teams still uncertain about their seeds right now, the, it seems unlikely we're going to get there until maybe the last day of the season and maybe not even then. And that's, I think what makes this such so exciting. So, you know, we've seen that in sections of the bracket, uh,

The night where the West playoff seating and eventually the Portland Trailblazers making the conference finals hinged on Anthony Simons and I want to say Scala BCA taking down the Sacramento Kings while playing a zone for a full 48 minutes. Like that was fun, but it was one segment of the standings. It wasn't both conferences and all these different mini races. The play in.

It's over, right? The play-in won. Like I was pro play-in from the beginning, from even before it happened, when I first learned what the proposal was. Is there any downside at all to the play? The only downside to me, it's not even a downside, is that there are fewer trades, fewer seller trades. But like that's a win because there's still stuff at the trade deadline every year. I mean, this year was boring. The previous years were earthquake, no pun intended, trade deadlines. The summer is still frothy with transactions.

The only downside I see is I still think, and I think you're with me on this, I still think the number one seed should be able to get to pick its first round opponent just because, you know, who knows who can get seventh, who knows who can get eighth. You just don't know how it's going to break. And I think you've earned that if you're the number one seed. But I don't even think...

Like the number one seeds. I just have never, I've rarely come across a team executive, even if they were with the number one seed in a given year that actually wants that. I think the whole league is, excuse my language, chicken about the concept of picking their opponent because it's bulletin board material. We were disrespected. Grow some guts and this should be the thing, but this is the only downside, right?

I mean, undoubtedly there is that sort of fear. I mean, there is also the logistical challenge of if the number one seed gets to pick, it means neither the one nor the two seed knows who they're playing until after those, that last set of play in games. Whereas this way, at least the two seed knows that they're locked into whoever wins the seven, eight game earlier in the week. So that that's the one logistical element. You'd probably have to change when both of those teams play on the weekend to give them enough time to prep and,

But I guess it would then be an advantage for the one seed because they knew they'd pick. Joel Embiid coming back and potentially being in the play-in is the scenario I think that could be the downside of this. If a team that otherwise was going to miss the playoffs is 9-10 and then leaps into that eight bracket and suddenly you as the one seed are like, wait, we got to deal with Joel Embiid, who was the MVP five minutes ago and is scoring more than a point per minute.

Just because of the fact that he happened to be injured all season. But it doesn't seem like that's actually going to hurt things this year, even if it's a possible outcome for Boston. Less likely after last night. Because worst case scenario, Philly was going to be eighth either way. So it's not something that was created by the play-in, if that happens. And by the way, you mentioned meaningless NBA games. Games with...

No NBA lineups in them. If you're craving that, if you're a viewer and you just want the car crash, shout out. It must be nice to be the GM of either the Raptors or the Blazers because, oh my God, have those teams been unwatchable is too strong of a word because both of them have young players who are playing hard. But like...

It's a deep, it's, there's some deep cuts getting massive. And now the Raptors finally got quickly back and Barrett back the other day and like are a functional NBA team somewhat again. The Blazers, if someone wants to just like tell me,

if there's any rhyme or reason to when DeAndre Ayton plays and when he doesn't play, like I have no idea. I have no idea what's going on there. Shout out to the Blazers and the Raptors. You're doing, you're doing wonderfully, not wonderfully enough to catch any of the teams at the bottom of the standings, but maybe for the Raptors wonderfully enough to keep their top six protected pick. The Grizzlies may have something to say about that. Okay. Well, we can't do this and not shout out Malachi Flynn. Oh my God. We, I was in Los Angeles out, uh, at a, uh,

Out in an establishment with an NBA scout. And he checked his phone. And he was like, I'll give you 100 guesses who scored 50 points tonight. And I think he could have given me 400. Like, that's how crazy the Malachi Flynn scoring 50 points is. Okay. Eastern Conference. Let's start with the Sixers and Joel Embiid.

Indiana, 43-34. Miami, 42-34. Philadelphia, 42-35. Philly does not have the tiebreak against either team. And I don't think they might. There's like some maybe wild scenario where they can get it against Miami, I think. But I think it's pretty unlikely. So they will have to jump these teams together.

by a win effectively finishing ahead of them in the standings Philly's remaining schedule is at Memphis W at Spurs W versus Detroit W versus Orlando in what is one of the you know I have a list of like the eight or nine most important games left in the season that's going to be one that's on April 12th which I think is a week from today and then versus Brooklyn at home W and

They might need to go 5-0 to get into number six because, you know, the other teams have so-so schedules too. And they are likely to have the tiebreaker. But I think, like, 5-0 is in play. And I don't know, KP. You look at the state of the Knicks, the state of the Cavs, and the state of the Magic, which is fine. They're just young with a bad offense and not much experience. Like, if Philly gets to 6-0,

And their path is one of those teams. And then maybe Milwaukee, who we'll talk about in the second round. Milwaukee's number two. Like, there's actually a little bit of a window here for the Sixers if they can get to six. Now, if you're in the play-in, I don't care how good you are. You're still in the play-in. You're still at risk of...

just single elimination randomness. And your ceiling is you get the bucks in the first round where you're going to be an underdog. I don't care how bad the bucks are playing. The bucks will be favored over the Sixers if that's the first round series. And I would probably pick the bucks. And your floor is Boston, which is death. I don't think the Sixers can beat Boston in a playoff series. They never do. And there's just a lot to do, a lot to reconstruct for the Sixers. But if they get to six, that's interesting. And...

I think there's a pathway for them to do it. And what a story it would be if Joel Embiid was drafted 10 years ago. 10 years ago. We still haven't had the Joel Embiid playoff run. The signature Joel Embiid playoff run. We haven't had a conference finals appearance. But we also haven't had a run where he's been both healthy and...

And by his standards, effectively productive all at the same time for an entire playoff run. And obviously you're going to have some bad games here and there. It's a 10 of 26, whatever. But he's underperformed his regular season numbers by I think even more than you'd expect given that the quality of the opposition increases. And look, we don't need to go through the litany of ****.

that he has lived through in Philadelphia from multiple number one picks who either never knew how to shoot or forgot how to shoot, from shirt collars to Twitter scandals to process resignation letters to...

James Harden being in and then out. And then finally, they have a functional, happy, content NBA team. A functional, happy, content number two in Tyrese Maxey. And they're rolling. And they have this starting five with Batum and Melton and Maxey and Harris and Embiid that was like plus 9 million in a limited sample size. Rivaling Boston for the number one seed and Milwaukee for the number two seed. And then Embiid gets hurt again.

kind of paralyzes the Sixers at the trade deadline. There was no big fish for them. Whether there was one available, I'm sure they tried to get some stuff done here and there. They end up getting Buddy Heald and then Kyle Lauer on a buyout. What a story it would be if what looked like a wasted season potentially. We didn't know when Embiid was going to come back. We didn't know how he'd look when he came back. What a story if this ends up being the year where they actually make the conference finals. It's too early for that, but I want your thoughts first on

Sort of how Embiid has looked in the two games since he's come back and how you see the Sixers with a lot of new parts to integrate and uncertainty about DeAnthony Melton and Robert Covington. How you see them just like filling out a rotation and looking relative to how they looked before?

Yeah. And that last question, I think that's one we haven't really didn't really answer last night because Tobias Harris was out and, you know, it was very different makeshift lineups for Nick Nurse. We saw KJ Martin in there a lot at power forward down the stretch. I mean, the other amusing thing about last night is, you know, well, it certainly wasn't a bad game for Joel Embiid and he was a big part of them going on what felt like a million to one to none run to start this game against Miami.

He wasn't out there when they took the lead in the fourth quarter. And I texted you during the game that the individual plus minuses were just bizarre in this game. Joel Embiid was minus 19 in a game his team won. Paul Reed, B-ball Paul, was plus 23 off the bench. Maybe that was the key was to get Paul Reed back in that second unit role, more important even than having the MVP.

I do think it's positive that in addition to having Joel Embiid for these games to help their seeding, they're also giving him this runway of time to play his way back into shape, play off the rust before the playoffs start. And especially if you end up the seven seed and are taking on Milwaukee in the first round, that's going to be crucial because so many times what we've seen is

It's Embiid suffering these injuries either in the playoffs or if you go back to the first year that Philadelphia was good and rattled off that long winning streak without him where Ben Simmons was playing with four shooters and it was Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Bellinelli spacing the court.

And he came back, I think the set game two of the playoffs, maybe game three, and was doing this process in the playoffs on the fly. So he's got an extra couple of weeks here. And especially if you could get up to six and not have to deal with that week of the play in and have game experience, practice time, then get back into the playoffs. I think that's a pretty favorable situation for them. Now, their actual chances at sixth are...

Still a long shot if you look at the projections, because the good news is one of Indiana and Miami are going to lose when they play. The bad news is one of Indiana and Miami is going to win that game, and then it's probably going to win most of the rest of their games. Here's Indiana's remaining schedule versus the Thunder tonight. Massive implications in both conferences. The Heat game that I mentioned, that's on Indiana-Miami is also one of my pivotal games. That's on Sunday. Massive game.

At Toronto, at Cleveland, versus the Hawks, who I think are 12-9 since Trae Young got hurt with a much better scoring margin than they had before. So that's – and boy, they might be fighting for number nine, KP. They might be fighting for home court. We need to come up with a name for the lower game of the play-in tournament. It should have a sad –

connotation to it like you should be a little bit embarrassed that you're in this game at least in the east maybe it's just the east version of it because the west these teams are like 10 and 11 games over 500 these are legitimately good basketball teams and my god the Rockets aren't going anywhere the Grizzlies are going to roar back to life next season if they're healthy and be like a 50 win team the Spurs are going to do something around Wemba Nyama

I don't know what the hell the Jazz are going to do. The Blazers are going to be bad. The West is going to be, you wrote about this yesterday, the West is going to be, if you are an old lion in the West, you better do some renovations this summer because you just cannot assume like, yeah, we'll just coast to like 47 wins, just get us into playoffs. The West is going to be nasty next year. What in the hell? Oh, the game's Indiana. So that's Indiana's schedule. Miami's schedule at Houston. I think the Rockets will still play hard.

At Indiana, we mentioned. At Atlanta, home to Dallas. That's a big game. And then twice against the Raptors. Not...

as easy as the Sixers schedule. If the Sixers win that Orlando game, and if they're in position, if they are 3-0 into that game, I think they go balls to the wall and beat the Magic. I think the Sixers are going to go 5-0, in which case those teams have to play well and really don't have a lot of margin of error to keep six. So I don't know what, I know the projection systems are pretty low on Philly getting six. I think their chances are better than that.

Now, one thing we should say here is let's not take all those wins for granted. Milwaukee Bucks just got swept in a back-to-back, right, by two lottery teams. We saw Indiana in a game that would have made this discussion a little less interesting had they won it, lose at Brooklyn. Massive game. I saw that game start to finish, and Indiana was playing with urgency. And now they didn't have Miles Turner, but they were playing with urgency in that game, and they just could not get over the hump.

So these games are still losable, but the thing that sets up nicely for the Sixers, assuming that they take care of business against this Memphis-San Antonio-Detroit stretch is then you have three days between that San Antonio game on Tuesday and playing Orlando on Friday in the biggest game of your season. Embiid has 53 points in two games, 17 of 39 shootings, 17 free throw attempts. He's played 62 minutes, 10 assists, 7 turnovers. Has looked good.

Has had the closing speed on defense that is indicative of, like, not that far away from peak Embiid. He can get from the arc to the rim pretty goddamn fast when he wants to. Had some nice kind of cuts for finger rolls and floaters last night in the middle of the heat zone. The jumper looks good. He's getting tired. You can see he's getting tired. He's looked a little sluggish here and there. All things considered, he's looked better than I expected through two games.

If you told me, guess the Sixers healthy starting five. I'm just from my mental coping. I am going to assume Melton doesn't play again. Just from my mental. I have no idea. There's a lot of uncertainty around his status. I don't know what it is, but just I'm just going to bake him as a it's going to be a happy surprise in my brain. That's all. I'm not reporting anything. I would go. I would guess Maxie, Kyle Lowry, Nick Batum, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid.

which would give me off the bench a top three of Oubre, Paul Reed, who I think one of the valuable things that's happened with Paul Reed is that finally a coach is just like, you're going to be my backup center. We can trust you to play 15 to 18 minutes in a playoff game of NB. And Buddy Heald. And I want to stagger the minutes so that Heald plays with Embiid while Maxie is on the bench and that kind of thing. And then beyond that, I can go, I can get into your campaigns and KJ Martin's.

Maybe they start Oubre over either Lowry or Batum. I want Batum shooting and entry passing in the starting five. Like that's a pretty, it's not a perfect team. It makes you wish they had found a little more something at the deadline. I understand why they didn't and couldn't with their cap space looming in the summer too as another wild card, not using up that. It's a good team. The Melton piece is big.

That's a dangerous team, though, and it's definitely dangerous to the teams that are 3, 4, and 5. You mentioned Milwaukee. I don't know, man. Like, they didn't have Dame for either of those games. They didn't have Middleton for the second one. I'm not going to, like, really overread into it. I still think right now they're the second best team in the East.

more by default than anything that they have accomplished this year. I think the Knicks could have been that team, and now we'll talk about them in a second, and the Sixers certainly could have, and they've got some uncertainty. Doc Rivers has had that job for like five minutes, and at least twice now has just run the players over publicly. Lack of professionalism on the road this week. Everybody's in Cancun. Half the team's in Cancun, whatever he said before the All-Star break.

Okay. I mean, I guess the players are going to be like in Stock Rivers. Like this is the guy we all wanted as coach. You can say whatever he wants. It's not great. KP, any other Sixers thoughts? What else you looking for on the Sixers?

I agree with you that I think Lowry makes the most sense in, in Batum is those two additional starters around the three guys who are given. I like having Uber is a jolt of energy and scoring off the bench, because that means you're going to be bringing him in when either Embiid or Maxie is going to the bench and you're starting to stagger those guys. And I,

I'd like to make sure I have two of those three out there at any given point, although Tobias Harris also is one of those guys who can be part of the stagger and make sure that you've got sufficient scoring. I do think campaign probably has to be part of the rotation. I just don't know that there's enough juice from Kyle Lowry running the point at this stage of his career, which is why I like him in that sort of Melton role as an off-ball guy primarily and defensive option on the perimeter. He's guarding Jimmy Butler for...

Lots of last night's Miami Philly game. He made two straight jump shots, and I was like, are we going to have a Kyle Lowry revenge game? The Heat announcers went out of their way to just shower Kyle Lowry with adoration, which I enjoyed on multiple levels. By the way, the Heat, 21st in offense for the season, 4th in defense,

They're one of the worst, although they're somehow 21-19 in quote-unquote clutch games, 13-14 in super clutch games, which I just personally define as within three points in the last three minutes. Have a massively negative scoring margin despite even records in both situations. Their offense late in games has been a disaster. I mean...

Jamie Butler keeps talking about how like it's time to lock in. Like here I'm going to be the best player in the world again. Last six games, seven games, 17 points, 15 points, DNP, eight points, 17 points, 17 points, 20 points. Tyler Hero, according to The Athletic, is maybe coming back as soon as this weekend. That would help.

Like, are they going to get their in gear? I don't, they're just, they're just a bad offensive team. And I just, I keep waiting. The hot kids, his impact has kind of faded a little bit as the season has gone on. The Yovitch starting thing has lasted much longer than I anticipated. And he's playing pretty well, even though they don't often play him that much in second half. Hey, what Highsmith hasn't missed a three in like a month. I don't know, man. Like we keep waiting for like the heat magic. One of these years, the heat magic ain't going to be there. Maybe this is that year.

Yeah, I mean, obviously we did have it in 2021 coming off of the bubble. They were really good in clutch situations last year. Am I remembering that correctly? Yeah, they were among the kings of the clutch.

Yeah, and it felt like that maybe was predictive because obviously Boston was not good in those situations. Milwaukee was not particularly good in those situations. And that ended up being the story of those two series and the upsets that the Heat pulled. Last night felt like it was kind of revelatory about the Heat because there was a moment midway through the fourth quarter or late in the third where it felt like,

oh miami's gonna do this again they were behind i think 14 nothing to start the game and just clawed their way back and and turned it into heat basketball in the second half and and jimmy was doing enough and then as you said fourth quarter came and they just did not have any scoring down the stretch i think it made a three-pointer in the last five minutes of the game if i recall correctly hilariously bad possessions too including the last one where

I don't even really even know. Like, Terry Rozier just dribbled around for a long time, and then Jimmy Butler missed, and then the ball got knocked away, and the game was over. Well, you know, look, who knows? I don't know what to make of the Heat.

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Orlando and New York are both 45-31. Orlando has tie breaks over both. Cleveland has tie breaks over neither. New York splits the tie breaks. 3-4-5 is like a complete blank slate. Totally in play, all these teams. I want to start with the Knicks. Julius Randle out for the season. Woj broke the story yesterday, undergoing shoulder surgery. We don't know about Ananobi. Let's just say...

and an OB can come back and stay back because they keep opening the door. They don't, they're not closing the door and they didn't, they didn't close the door on Randall either until it slammed shut yesterday. How big a deal, because Randall, as you know, is a polarizing player, both within the league and within Knicks fans. How big a deal, how big a loss is Randall for them if the rest of their team is healthy? And I know it's, it's impossible to say, cause we don't know what seed they're going to be and whether they're going to face, we're going to be on Boston's half of the bracket, but,

How far can they get in the playoffs as currently constituted, do you think? I mean, I think they're in that same position as Philadelphia, where the weakness of Milwaukee, our uncertainty about them, the unprovenness of Orlando, and the health situation in Cleveland means...

Same thing. You could win two series if they break, right? You could lose in the first round. Either of those scenarios are realistically possible. I think it's very similar to the 2019 West that I referenced where so much of the power was concentrated on one side of the bracket and then it ended up being Portland and Denver, two teams who, even though they ended up the second and third seeds, we hadn't really thought about in terms of consistency.

contention with those two teams battling for a spot in the conference finals. So I think there's some similarities to that and how the bracket might fall. I'm maybe not as optimistic on OG and Inovi, like

I I've sort of been mentally doing the thing that you did with D Anthony Melton in terms of just probably right. I don't know why. I don't know why I both of them came back for a hot second and then went out. So I don't know why I'm choosing to be more optimistic about one and the other in my in my coping my self coping mechanisms.

When I wrote about this yesterday, the thing that I did not realize is that Jalen Brunson has the league's highest usage rate since Julius Randle and Ananobi went down at 35%. And he's been incredible with that usage rate. His efficiency has barely dipped at all.

I do think there's a difference between doing that on a night-and-night basis in the regular season when he has seen a lot more traps, but it's not the same thing as a locked-in playoff defense going against you potentially seven games in a row, figuring out how to take the ball out of your hands and make other guys beat you. Some of these players have shown that they're capable of doing that. Dante DiVincenzo, three-point specialist extraordinaire. You don't want to give him open looks in a playoff series either, but

you know if you're forcing miles mcbride to beat you offensively and isaiah hartenstein is as good as he's been defensively and and those sorts of role players i do think that worries me if i'm i'm next and you know particularly if you do end up three and draw the sixers which is as you said probably less favorable if the sixers end up in six than being in that four or five despite boston in the second round yeah as things stand today and there's still chances these things change

That 4-5 series is going to be two of these three teams, Cleveland, Orlando, New York. 3-6 is going to be, you know, if you finish third out of that group, you're going to get Indiana, Miami, or Philadelphia. Miami obviously is feared and respected despite their uneven season and their injuries. And Philly is Philly. And Indiana is not to be trifled with. I think Indiana, that's why that Brooklyn loss was so stunning to me, really, because I think they've been playing pretty well.

The other thing we should note about statistical projections is they say that second is very much not locked up for Milwaukee. No, it's not because Milwaukee's schedule is brutal. After the back-to-back losses too, it was Washington and Memphis, right? Maybe not such a bad thing.

Hey, look, if Milwaukee loses a couple more games in a row and number two is in play, I will then transition into just tell me what the seeds are after the season is over because my brain now can no longer handle all the competing scenarios. So, yes, thank you for pointing that out. So the Knicks...

If Ananobi is healthy, their starting five is likely Brunson, DiVincenzo, Hart, Ananobi, Hartenstein. That group is plus 27 in just 54 minutes. For the season, in about 1,000 minutes, the Knicks are plus 10.8 per 100 possessions when Brunson plays without Randle. And that number is like astronomical in the very limited Brunson plus Ananobi scenarios.

I guess that's your roadmap for optimism. And I agree with you. Like, if they get third and the Pacers are sixth and the Bucs are struggling in second, like, there's a path for the Knicks to get to the conference finals. I still think that's in play. That's a good deep team. You bring Bogdanovich, McBride, Mitchell, Robinson, Burks, Achua off the bench. Tibbs is going to be well prepared. You know all that stuff.

That's a good deep team. I am worried a little bit about the fatigue factor. Like there has to be a cost to these guys carrying this kind of load for quite a long time now. We don't know about Ananobi and the Randall thing. You know, it's interesting to think about because like if you ask people, if you ask like 100 coaches in front office executives, like who's more valuable to the Knicks, Ananobi or Randall?

I suspect Ananobi would win that poll just because people would say, well, the ball's in Brunson's hands all the time. Ananobi's 3 and D skill set is more valuable in that environment than Randall, who's kind of just a so-so shooter that teams aren't going to guard out there. And his value is largely like having the ball and just barricading into people, barreling into people, kicking out, passing out. They had a great passing season. And I get that.

I just think in the playoffs against the best defenses, you need as many guys as possible who can, who can just give you like, Oh, this is a dead possession with five on the shot clock. Like let me create something. And you stagger the minutes appropriately. Like, I think this is actually, despite the fact that Randall has been among the very worst post-season players, like literally in NBA history for like a minimum 10 games played, he's shooting 33% in 15 career playoff games. Like that's hard to do. I think this is, is a,

pretty sizable loss for the Knicks and just lowers their ceiling to the point that I think their ceiling before this was conference finals and could actually give Boston a real run. They, their, their toughness I think has given Boston some issues the last couple of years. And now I think their ceiling is exactly as you put it. Like if everything breaks, right, you get smoked by Boston in the conference finals. If things break wrong, you lose in the first round and,

And that I will give you either who you want to talk about next. Well, if you have any more Nick's thoughts on here, I'm otherwise pick the Cavs or the magic to talk about. You know, I thought that I watched the second half of that Nick's heat game and I thought that it might have been a moment for Boyan Bogdanovich because Tom Thibodeau kind of rolled with him and the other second unit guys down the stretch.

after they got the Knicks back in that game. And then, granted, he was a minus 13, but he plays 12 minutes last night. And it worked out well for the Knicks, but I think we certainly expected him to have a much larger role. Alec Burks as well, who's kind of been in and out of the rotation a little bit, played three minutes against Miami coming back from injury. And it does feel like the highest ceiling version of the Knicks needs to feature a lot more of those guys and somewhat less of Miles McPherson.

Even if McBride, you can say what you want about hand checking. He's out there mugging guys on the perimeter right now. And it's part of the reason that the Knicks have been able to be so successful defensively in this stretch.

He's getting fouled. He's getting fouled. He's getting fouled. He's getting fouled. He's getting fouled. Someone hit, someone knocked to Tibbs robot. To Tibbs robot is malfunctioning. Chris Haynes is reporting that Damian Lillard will make his return tonight against the Toronto Raptors, which you would like to say is a win for the Bucs, will be a win for the Bucs. Bucs, please get your SHIT together. Cavs magic. We're living in a world now, Kevin Pelton,

Where the Orlando Magic might win a playoff series. Like, that's what... I might actually pick them to win a playoff series. They are an absolutely ferocious defensive team. They play with incredible spirit. They have some easy lineup tweaks they can make, I think, to make their team even better.

There's just, it's all gravy for them, but I don't think they look at it that way. I think they look at it as like, look at all these teams. Like at the very least we're going to bring our number two rated defense every night. And yeah, our offense isn't very good, but we're going to like, we're going to be in close games. If we're in close games, we can win the calves. Maybe it's just Mitchell being, being not a hundred percent. He's had PRP had a nose injury. He hasn't looked the same since either of those things.

I don't like what I'm seeing. I don't like what I'm hearing. 11-15 in our last 26 games. Bottom 10 on both sides of the floor in that stretch. Trying to reintegrate the Mobley-Allen double big lineup. I think those guys have both played okay. Mobley is starting to shoot threes in like a little token amount. I think he's 8-14 in his last seven games. I don't know. What are you seeing? I don't like what I'm seeing.

Yeah, I don't either. I mean, I think a healthy Mitchell was needed to sort of deal with some of the fit issues that we've noted all season long where, hey, things actually seem to work a lot better when Garland and Mobley were out of the lineup and Mitchell was just the point guard. Jared Allen was your center and you put shooters at the other three spots around them. And

And Sling and Sam Merrill in particular opened things up so much for those two guys that their pick and roll became very difficult to contain. And it no longer seems that way. Yeah, I guess I'm not sure what the reason for optimism is besides Mitchell just playing his way back into shape after the time that he's missed. Here's the reason. Here's the case for optimism. We know, speaking as the Cavs, we know how to play.

And how to play is this. We start our five guys, the two guards, the two bigs, and Strews. Strews flies around and gives us a little life, a little jolt of offense. We run a little bit more of the offense through Mobley and Allen as high post passers. Run our split actions. Like, that's good for us. Get Mitchell and Garland running around off the ball a bit. And we stagger to the most extreme level possible. Both the guards...

And the bigs to the point that like one of the bigs, you may not play crunch time. If it's close, we got Karis LeVert coming off the bench as an extra ball handler. When one big is on the floor. So there's more shooting. We can bring a Coro and he's missed a couple of games and we pass it. We move around. We play with pace. Like they had this, they had it. Even when the, even when Mobley and Garland came back, they, they maintained a lot of that identity that they had.

When they were out and then other guys went out, they started losing and the spirit of the team just seems to have been sapped. And I just sometimes I mean, you see, we've seen it with the Clippers. Like sometimes a team can be amazing. And then for reasons that are hard for people to understand, they just lose it and they don't get it back. Like I think remember that one of those last Pacers teams of like the Roy Hibbard team.

that started out like gangbusters and just kind of faded like 500 in the last 30 games of the season, barely got out of the first and second rounds. It happens. I don't know. I mean, we could see it click back together because they have the roadmap to do it. Part of it is that I really have been...

I don't know. Like, I don't think Darius Garland has had a very good season. And I know the numbers are okay. Like, the eye test is not okay to the point that I was rolling around in my bed last night in my hotel room making up fake Darius Garland to San Antonio trades if somehow the Cavs

can convince Mitchell to stay or think that Mitchell is going to stay and boy Dan Gilbert these these governors just don't talk about your player don't talk about optimism remember James Dolan was like we're optimistic players are going to come here and then nobody came there and everyone went to the Nets um Dan Gilbert said something about how he's optimistic about Mitchell signing an extension in the summer and then Mitchell was asked about it was like yeah I was trying to

Trying to help the team win the next game. Just keep my focus on the next game. Like I said, trying to keep my focus on the next game. It's like, okay. I don't know, man. I don't like it. I like watching Orlando much more than I like watching Cleveland these days. Yeah, it's interesting. Orlando, I think, is to a degree where Cleveland was last year, where this is all kind of happening for the first time, and it's exciting and thrilling. Orlando, if you look over the course of the season, has the weakest point differential of this group overall.

They were before last night, even behind Indiana. And yet then you look since the all-star break, that was the split I used when I was writing about the Knicks because that's basically when you get the trade deadline acquisitions integrated and everything.

That was the stretch where they had basically not had Randle and Ananobi all season. And Orlando is right there at the top of this group since that stretch with anyone. And Cleveland is, as you've laid out at the bottom of it, you don't want to put too much weight on performance late in the season. We have often seen situations where that doesn't translate, but it feels legitimate with Cleveland. There was a team that this time last year,

was the number two in point differential actually ahead of Milwaukee, behind only Boston and the East team, and then fell on their face in the playoffs. And those same issues seem to persist today.

J.B. Bickerstaff has more of a plan B now that he could go to in the playoffs. But as you mentioned, it'd have to be pretty aggressive in terms of limiting the minutes of Garland, the guy who you thought was a building block for you when you extended him last offseason, and either Mobley or more likely Mobley probably than Allen. Those are two guys you thought were your building blocks. And I still think they can be. I mean, this is a young team. Mobley is still really... And I've liked the way Mobley's played it, both his...

willingness to at least pretend to shoot a little bit more. And like two a game is not nothing. It's not... I think it's a little bit... It's being blown up into a little bit more than it actually is. But he's been powerful and decisive with the ball in the lane, on the short roll. His passing with Allen is pretty good. It's sort of their interior passing game. I just...

I just think the spacing with those two on the floor is going to be a problem in the wrong playoff series. Like, I don't think it's clean enough yet. I think that's okay. Like, they're a young team. But there's a lot at stake for this team. There's a lot at stake for J.B. Bickerstaff in this playoff run. There's a lot at stake for the Donovan Mitchell-Darius Garland pairing. And sometimes when there's a lot at stake, the team just kind of feels it. I'm actually sort of – I think that they –

If Bickerstaff makes the right rotation choices, I think they can get back into a little bit of a groove and maybe be the most dangerous among these three teams to at least win a round and push the Bucs in the second round. But I just don't know that they're going to do it. But I think the roadmap is there if Donovan Mitchell is healthy because he was like –

First team all NBA level rolling for the first 45, 50 games of the season. And he has not been that guy since. And that sometimes the difference is that simple. The magic to your point, 21 and eight in their last 29 games.

19th in offense, which for them is like you throw a parade down Main Street USA for any top 20 ranking in offensive efficiency. By the way, I went to Disney last year with my daughter. The parades down Main Street USA, it's really ratcheted up a notch since I was eight years old. They are spectacular. Like the parades are incredible. And they're second in defense in that span. So it's just a fun, fun team. I'm curious what they're going to do in the offseason. Yeah.

how aggressively they act. Maybe they don't at all because they just like the way they are. Any other thoughts on these teams? I mean, I think that's going to be informed by what they do in the playoffs. And the fascinating thing with them is this is going to be a new experience for just about every key player on their roster. I wrote about this yesterday. Four players on the entire roster have ever played in the playoffs and basically all of their playoff experience is Gary Harris and Joe Ingles. Isaac played the one series in the bubble where he got hurt.

Or maybe there was a series before because he got hurt the way he was. They played Toronto. It was the year Toronto won the title, I think. What if you could hear your favorite song for the first time again?

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. Let's shift out west, which is actually even more chaotic across the board than the east. And I will just defer to you.

We got races up and down the standings. You got this three-team race for number one between Minnesota, the Thunder, and the Nuggets. The Nuggets lost in L.A. to the Clippers last night. I was at that game. Clippers really needed that one. Really needed that one. I'll tell you, man, when Harden missed his first three shots at the rim and they were not good misses and he fell out of bounds and was whining to the refs,

The groaning in the crowd was reaching a point of like, uh-oh, is this about to get – are they about to turn on him and this team because they have not been playing well? And then he ended up scoring 20 and playing pretty well. And they survived Jokic trying for the same buzzer shot he hit against the Warriors earlier in the season. They're pretty strongly in fourth. But we have – you have the Phoenix Pelicans Mavericks Quadrant.

You have the Kings Lakers mini quadrant just below that and the race for number one. What's what's you pick where to start? What's interesting? What's what? What's like what's the most important, most substantive, like most at stake race of all those?

It's still got to be the race for number one, right? I mean, as much time as we focused on kind of that back half of the bracket and avoiding the plan because of some of the names involved there, ultimately what's going to matter the most is can somebody have home court advantage over Denver, I guess in the second round, but especially in the conference finals, because if you don't have that, I think it's very hard to feel optimistic about your chances of going through Denver and winning the Western Conference.

But if you do, Denver's still the clear favorite. No matter which seed they're in, they're going to be my pick and everyone's pick to come out of the Western Conference. But it does open the door. There's a path there if you're the number one seed and Denver is two or especially three.

Denver does not have the tiebreaker against either the Thunder or the Wolves. Their remaining schedule is pretty easy other than they have one massive game against Minnesota left that could even their season series, but Minnesota is going to win the tiebreak there anyway because of division record, I believe is how it would come down if they tied.

But then my head hurts when I start going through teams that are in the same division. Their schedule is Atlanta at Utah, home to Minnesota at Spurs at Memphis. That's a pretty easy schedule. And look, I mean, that's why...

You know, we talk on TV a lot, like how far can Phoenix go? How far can Dallas go? If the Lakers somehow get to seventh, how far can they go? Because the Lakers could get up to that eighth spot. And then if they win their play-in game at 7-8, they're seventh. And my answer is always like, I know this is not what you guys want to hear. It just depends where Denver is seated. Like if any of those teams draw Denver, they're not going to win. And...

They have no idea where Denver is going to be seeded, one, two, or three. They don't know if the seven, six, or eight seed is going to be the least advantageous one to get because they don't know where Denver is going to be. Everything flows from Denver, who hasn't looked great lately, but I just like...

When they don't have Jamal Murray, I don't read too much into any sort of offensive clunkiness. You know, you saw the Clippers last night kind of play the we're not going to send tons of help at Jokic in the post and make him score and beat us as a scorer. They sent help now and then. That strategy kind of falls – doesn't fall apart, but it's much harder to do when Jamal Murray is in the game and they can be like, oh, we'll just like run a bunch of pick and roll with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. So I – like –

To me, it is the most important race just because everything in the West, everything about how far can Phoenix get. And Phoenix is playing with some pop now. They're up to six and their offenses look good. I think they're six and two in their last eight games. They're starting to play with a little more pop and pace. How far can, like if the Pelicans get in, how dangerous are they? It's like if you draw Denver in the first round, like you're not dangerous. That's it. Yeah. And...

The fact that we may not know where Denver is until the last day of the regular season, to your point, and then the fact that if they're toggling between two and three because finishing first after last night is now kind of the least likely at those three scenarios for Denver, you can't manipulate matchups to avoid Denver if it means going down to seven and going into the play-in tournament. That is, I think, one of the places where the play-in has really helped is not just Denver

kind of creating incentive for teams that were outside of eight, but also meaning that there is this huge break point between six and seven where getting there and being in the play out locked in the playoffs for sure is a huge accomplishment. And that has been tested out this season and in prior seasons, the theoretical of would a team ever,

look at the matchups if they were set in stone long enough before the end of the season and actually choose that seven is better than six because of who the third and the second seeds are. And the answer is a resounding no. Every team that's been anywhere close to that situation is universally like,

I don't care how good our pedigree is. I don't care if we have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal on our team. I don't care if we'd have two chances to win one game. We do not want to be in the play-in. It is too risky. Too much is at stake in one game. Too much randomness. Someone hits 10 threes and you lose. Let's talk Kings-Lakers. The Kings are 44-32. The Lakers are 44-33.

credit to the Lakers. Like that's a good record. The Lakers have become a good team. They're not like laughable anymore. Like, you know, when Charles Barkley laughed at them, I laughed at us honestly on TNT for saying we're covering the Lakers too much. We were, but it's a good team. Their offense is number two in the league since Darvin Ham put Rui Hachimura in the starting five. And boy has Rui paid that off. Um,

Their remaining schedule is home to Cleveland, home to Minnesota, home to the Warriors. That's not easy. At Memphis, at Pelicans. Tough schedule. Kings, 44-32. So a game up in the loss column, half game up overall. They have the tiebreaker over the Lakers because they're undefeated against the Lakers.

At Boston, at Brooklyn, at Oklahoma City, versus the Pelicans, versus the Suns, versus the Blazers. That's not an easy schedule. And you drop one of those games, you drop that Brooklyn game, and all of a sudden, you're in a lot of trouble. I don't know if the Lakers can get to seven, but eight is in play for them. They have to actually leap over the Kings because of the tiebreaker. But given that Malik Monk's out and Kevin Herter's out,

8's in play, and if 8's in play, 9-8 is a big, big deal. Absolutely. Just having that opportunity to win one game and you're in and knowing you're going to have home court advantage in that second game if you don't, I think...

Nine to eight is probably, because of those factors, a bigger deal than even eight to seven, because at least you're hosting that second game. Especially if it's not necessarily a way more favorable matchup to finish seventh rather than eighth, as may be the case this year. I think one of the takeaways from the statistical projections that are modeling this is it's just a lot more...

random than we even kind of give it credit for. And maybe that's because of the fact that at this point, it is a little easier to pencil in those wins and losses than the projection systems indicate where they're still giving a chance of losing this game that seems like you're certain to take it, but

The Lakers have a chance. I'm looking at the Dunkson 3's projections because ours don't split out the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th going into the play-in. And they have the Lakers 11% to finish up in 7th going into the play-in. And even with an outside chance of finishing 6th, which does not seem realistic to me. They've been playing well. AD has been awesome. I know you haven't thought about – you told me you hadn't thought too much about All-NBA yet.

You know, obviously the first four spots on first team all NBA are pretty much locked in. It's going to be the top four guys in MVP voting. You know, Luka, Jokic, Giannis, SGA. The fifth spot, look, it'll be controversial if it's AD over Tatum, given that the Celtics have just lapped the field over everybody. He's made a pretty strong case. Like he's had an outstanding season. That starting five is humming. Hachimura has changed the whole look and feel of that team.

Their bench has been, I'll put it kindly, up and down. And they really need some consistency from anybody on that bench. It could be Dinwiddie. It could be Vincent, who's back now. It could be Torian Prince. Someone to give them some consistency. But look, if they, and if I'm the Warriors who are playing, the Warriors have won seven games in a row. They've found something with this Jackson Davis, Draymond Green combination. Draymond is playing amazing. This is why it's so...

When he takes himself out of the lineup and out of games, cause he's playing incredible. He's almost as good defensively as he was at his absolute prime. If I'm the Warriors, I'm like, man, I kind of want the Kings to slide. Like if we're stuck in 10, which we might be not clear, but we might be give me like, it would be nice if the Kings and in their current state of health slide to nine and

We're kind of comfortable playing them, although that's been an even matchup. We could win that game and then take our chances in 7-8 against whoever. Could be the Pelicans, could be the Suns, could be the Lakers, could be like that. That might be a better roadmap for the Warriors than if the Lakers stick in 9th.

I think so, especially this version of Sacramento without Kevin Herter and Malik Monk. They managed to stay afloat without those guys, got a very nice win over the Clippers earlier this week. But still, the Sacramento ceiling, particularly in a single game scenario without those two is just way lower and I think lower than the Lakers given the reasons you've outlined and how well they've played recently.

Keep an eye out for Mike Brown contract extension talks in the next few months. I feel like if I were Mike Brown's agent, I would be like, I saved your crappy team. I helped save your crappy team. We're actually like a good normal team now. Give me all the money. Can I give you a sneaky Warriors thing to watch? Yes.

Whether they are locked into 10th by the last weekend of the regular season, because they host New Orleans on the Friday of the last weekend of the regular season. And right now that looks like a very difficult game for the Pelicans who are also in the midst of this, you know, trying to hang on to sixth race.

against Phoenix and whoever else bubbles up, the Lakers. If that becomes a situation where the Warriors are just, we know we're 10th, we can't get any higher, let's rest our guys and rest up for the play-in, then that's a huge, huge win for the Pelicans. Is that just too far away to think about? No, no, no, no. I'm just thinking. I'm thinking if I want to even ask. Let's say the Lakers get to 8th, finish 8th, or finish 7th. Let's say either one. Let's say they get into the top half of the play-in and

get into one of those places and they don't face Denver in the first round face Minnesota or Oklahoma city. SGA has missed some games recently for the thunder and was not quite himself. He's got this, I think it's a hamstring thing or whatever at a quad. I can't remember exactly what it is. Something leggy. Um, I don't think it's a big deal, but you know, second or third or first MVP guy, it's a big deal. If he's not totally 100%, they're inexperienced, obviously. Um,

They have this, you know, they've got some questions about their roster. Like people are up in arms. People like wish they had more rebounding. They have the giddy thing. Our team's going to put their centers on giddy and try to play them off the floor. He's been playing great lately. And obviously that gives Chet a different kind of matchup too. And then Minnesota, I think Minnesota's 10 and four without Towns. They're playing like they're playing very well. There's a certain toughness to that team that I really, really like. It's just a, just a togetherness, um,

Obviously, their defense travels every game, and they take great pride in that, and they're huge. What kind of shot do the Lakers have against either of those teams? Assuming they're drawing dead against the Nuggets, which I think is fair. Do they have proverbial puncher's chance? Is that it?

I think it's better than that against Oklahoma city in particular, just given that match of advantage, what they've been able to do during the regular season. I think one of the interesting wrinkles we've seen a little more and you know, Mark Digno's hand was kind of false forced because of their other injuries. We've seen a lot more of big Jalen Williams alongside Chet Holmgren lately. They finished a game late last year,

midway through last month that way. And it was interesting because I looked it up at that point and those two guys, like the only time that they'd ever played in crunch time was, you know, basically in a rebounding situation only they'd bring in Jalen Williams for the defensive rebound and then sub him out after taking a timeout. I think they had played like 30 minutes for the whole season or something extremely low like that. Which is interesting because if you go back to like last summer, I think,

You might have thought that that could even be, you know, if not their starting alignment, at least one that we were going to see a lot of back when it was unclear whether Chet was going to play more as a forward than it is now.

Then it is a five. And I think, you know, deciding to make him the full-time center is a big reason that Oklahoma city is where they are. It is where they are right now. That was a confusing sentence is that was coming out of my mouth. I do think that, you know, playoff matchup against a team with as much size as the Lakers, that could be a look that is useful for them.

I thought it was quite notable, and again, injuries forced their hand, that they started Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren together against the Sixers and Joel Embiid the other night because they wanted big Jalen Williams to guard Embiid. And the other Jalen Williams and SGA did not play that game, so they had two vacancies in their starting five. Cason Wallace, I believe, got the other. And I watched those minutes carefully. Like, I want to see how this looks. I want to see how Chet...

How involved Chet is as essentially a stretch for in that alignment. Now it helps that Jalen Williams can shoot threes too, so they can play around with the matchups and Chet can be a rim runner if need be.

And I think he's a smart enough, skilled enough player to figure out how to still be a big part of the offense. I think Dagnall is a creative enough coach to mix up the pick and roll combinations in an unpredictable way to keep him involved. They'll even run him as the ball handler in a pick and roll every once in a while. And sometimes with Giddey as the screener, if the center is guarding Giddey and they're trying to hide him there. It's a very creative team. If they're healthy...

I know we if you're going that look against the Lakers and they're healthy, Giddy is the guy who's out of the line. I'm not starting that way against the league. I'm not starting that way against anybody. If I'm them now, I may be naive. I'm going to roll with the lineup at least to start that has got me here. And I'm going to roll with the identity that I feel most certain about, which is Giddy is the biggest or Holmgren is the biggest guy on the floor and go from there.

I'd have a hard time picking the Lakers in either one of those series. The Wolves, what have you seen with the Wolves without Towns? I've been just, I've been beyond impressed. Like, I've talked a lot about Towns and how when he got hurt, I said, and you may have even been on the podcast with me. I said, like, I think their ceiling without Towns or without like a healthy Towns is one round. I don't think they can win two rounds without Towns.

Depending on the matchups, I still kind of think they're going to miss his offense and his shooting more than they have. But Nas Reed is doing one hell of a Carl Towns impression. And like there, I just love the spirit of this team. There's something there's something interesting and special going on there.

Loki, one of the more important transactions of last offseason for Minnesota is we all just were penciling that Nasrid's going to go somewhere else and maybe become a starter and play more minutes than he can with a healthy Towns and go bear there in front of him on the depth chart. And they were able to retain him on a really reasonable extension. And, you know, it gives them...

still two very strong front court options, even without towns. And, you know, read not as reasons probably should be on the fringes of the, the six man of the year discussion, the way that he's played. I don't think he should be on the fringes anymore. I think he who's ahead of him now. Well, I mean, you said to come with your hardest award. I think six man is one that I haven't looked at real closely, but I think a lot of people just penciled in Malik monk and, you know, his injury has cost him some ability to accumulate value at the end of the year. Um,

Statistically, the guy who pops more than anyone is a former King Bogdan Bogdanovich. I wrote about him today. He gets no respect in the six minute years. I don't think he's ever finished even in the top five. I looked at the voting. I would fact check that because I don't remember off the top of my head.

He belongs in the absolute inner circle with all these dudes. They're like plus three with him on the floor and minus seven or eight with him off the floor. He's just a good basketball player. Yeah. And Bobby Portis, I think, gets a lot of love in this. And Nas Reed, to me, is ahead of Bobby Portis because I think he is a better defensive player. I think Nas Reed, Malik Monk was in a little bit of a slump before he got hurt.

I think Nas Reed is neck and neck for winning the award at this point. I haven't looked at the odds. Norman Powell. No, I'm not talking about odds. I'm just talking in my brain. Norman Powell is the other guy we haven't mentioned. Speaking of which. Josh Hart is right on the borderline. He's probably not going to be eligible. Yeah, he's going to start too many games, right? He also should be mentioned here. He's penned.

He has been unbelievable. Now, he's a little bit of a rebound hog. I'll say that about Josh Hart. He's a little bit of a rebound hog. He'll take a rebound from you, and he'll... He's good when he gets it. I like that kind of hogging better than any other kind of hogging. I want to talk about two teams before we go. Suns.

And you want to say like, boy, that race for number six is like the biggest, the biggest race gone, like the most important race in the East. It might be the most important race in the West. It might get you Denver, which sucks, but like it also gets you out of the play-in.

I've gone on and on about what a disaster it would be for the Suns to miss the playoffs or lose in the first round. I like starting with the Denver game, and Murray didn't play that game, I don't think, and they only scored 104 points, so their offensive numbers were not great, but I liked the way they played in that game. I thought they played with a certain snap in their decision-making, like...

Pick and roll, kick, drive it, kick again. Royce O'Neal is like setting random screens. I think they've been a little more deliberate with, okay, your point guard's on Bradley Beal. Bring him into a pick and roll. They still need to use Grayson Allenmore as a screener, I think, for that exact reason. But I have liked their snap lately. What have you noticed about the Suns?

It feels like things just fit together better right now that they've figured out what the rotation is going to be. And Royce O'Neal has obviously been a huge part of that and getting somebody who can be an offensive threat in that stopper role. And Josh Akogi, who was playing in that role, you know, before they got O'Neal was been sidelined and then has been fringes the rotation since he came back to, to action. And then also the element of like,

This is what I was thinking watching that Cleveland game the other night. Bobo's a real player now. Like, he was kind of... I don't trust him. I'm not ready. I'm not ready, Kevin. I'm not ready. I don't trust him on defense. I don't trust him. I get it. The fascination with him was legitimate and...

And it was reflected in his box score stats last year in Orlando when he got a chance to play a lot of minutes. But his on-off impact with the Magic was pretty horrendous. And I think that reflected all of the concerns you would probably hear from coaches about him that, yes, he has all these skills. He doesn't know when to take advantage of them and when not to. And defensively, he doesn't know where he needs to be.

I feel like all of that has, you know, it's not gone away, but it has tightened up. It has cleaned up considerably this year in Phoenix. And he's someone who could be a factor off the bench in a playoff series. I don't trust him, but I do like the way the Suns are playing. And if they're playing like this, if they're playing like this with this kind of

Not share the ball or share the love, just this kind of purpose. Like it's not either going to be I have the ball or I'm doing nothing. I'm standing around like Kevin Durant can't stand around. He's got to be involved in almost every possession. He's Kevin Durant. Involve him some way or another. They play like this and they draw the right matchup, i.e. not Denver. Although I think they could. I think they're troublesome for Denver, but Denver would beat them, I think. Or at least I'd pick Denver. They could be dangerous in the playoffs. There's no question about that.

Last team I want to talk about. Go ahead. Yeah, they're upside. It's still really high. Last team I want to talk about. I saw them in person last night. The team that, for all the focus on all these other teams, may have more at stake than any of them, and that's the Clippers, who are fourth in the West. Their 26-5 scorched earth run seems like a long time ago. Harden showed some life last night. Kawhi missed another game with knee soreness. I just don't like...

I don't even know. I don't sense a great deal of organizational worry or panic about he's going to miss tons of time. Is he going to miss a playoff game? I haven't sensed that kind of panic. But I also like everyone involved has kind of lost the benefit of the doubt on what is said publicly about Kawhi Leonard's knee injuries. I thought they showed some juice and toughness last night in a game they needed to win.

What has happened to their team? What have you seen? Is it as simple as Harden just isn't scoring anymore? This is the first time he had 20 points in a month last night. Is it as simple as maybe they're a little... Some people have said maybe this is the downside of not load managing. Maybe there's some fatigue setting in on some of their guys. Kawhi's obviously been hurt. This was all season long.

My if there's a team that's going to beat Denver in the West, it's this team. This this has become the most dangerous team in the West. The other legit like I had them above Minnesota, above Oklahoma City, just in terms of playoff championship equity because of their experience, because of how dominant they looked. Can they get that back?

Maybe. I mean, I think one of the interesting things looking at this statistically was, you know, when I broke it down, maybe the single biggest difference was before the All-Star break, the Clippers shot almost 40% on threes. They were number one in the NBA. If I can get the splits to load here, since the All-Star break, they are down to, got to keep scrolling here, 36% on threes, 17th in the league. So this is like, that's,

That's a big deal. The team shoot a lot of three-pointers. The Clippers in particular depend on it because they don't get a ton of easy points. That's kind of been the flaw offensively for this team throughout the entire era besides the lack of a point guard is they just don't generate easy points. If you had Prime Harden, he would solve a lot of that in terms of his ability to get to the free throw line and set up lobs and things like that. He doesn't really do that anymore. That's not his game. He is much more dependent on threes for his own production.

I don't think we should necessarily be surprised at his age, the mileage that he has. If he's slowing down offensively, that's part of why you end up joining Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, even if it was also the element of wanting to play his way, unlike in Philly when he was playing alongside Joel Embiid. He's not the system anymore. The system is offline right now.

If the Clippers are going to do it, Kawhi Leonard has to be the best player in every playoff series they play. And there's still a chance of that. You mentioned all NBA. To me, there's a tier after those top four guys. And it's Tatum, it's Kawhi, it's LeBron, it's AD, and it's Jalen Brunson. You have LeBron that high? I do, yeah. Over Durant. You didn't say Durant, I don't know. I did not say Kevin Durant. I haven't looked at it closely. I'm not sure whether he'd be in that tier or not.

The Lakers getting two all-NBA guys is going to be controversial. I think it's less so now that they have, again, established themselves. It's like, yeah, they're a pretty good basketball team. They're not super deep. But it's interesting you have LeBron that. I mean, some of the advanced numbers – look, the raw numbers are what they are. The shooting percentage is what it is. And some of his advanced numbers are still really, really good. But, yeah, Kawhi is also in that tier, to your point. Yeah. And –

Now it looks like the most likely single, I think, first round matchup on the board is Clippers-Mavericks in the 4-5 in the rest. After the Clippers won last night, Mavericks looking good for fifth. And if Kawhi's the best player in that series, they'll probably win. If Luka Doncic is the best player in the series, they can still win because he might have been the best player in the 21 series between these two teams in the first round. But it's going to be a lot harder for the Clippers to win.

They need Zubats to really, really find his midseason groove. And he started, he missed a ton of shots at the rim last night, and he started to sort of find it later in the game.

The chemistry he has with Harden is what started a lot of their possessions. And they had found this blend of like, yeah, James Harden's a point guard. He's going to handle the ball. We're going to, we're going to really blend that pick and roll might lead to a Kawhi isolation. It might lead to a Paul George jump shot. Like they had the right mix in the right pace and they've kind of lost that in zoos up and down play has been part of that Harden's up and down play. And also he's just not getting calls at the rim. And I think the officiating changes have really hurt him, but Kawhi,

They needed Kawhi to be like a superhero to get out of that Dallas series in 2021, the second time they played. I don't know that I'm even ready for this matchup again, for the trilogy matchup between these, between Luka Doncic and now Kyrie Irving and the Clippers superstars and the Clippers defense.

I don't know if Favits Zubats is ready for it again because I'm sure he has nightmares of switching on to Luka and being left on an island and Luka just raining step backs over him over and over and over again. That 2021 series was one of the most dramatic first round series maybe ever. I mean, it's one of those things where if the Clippers lose that series, stuff is changing in the offseason. I don't know what. And they lost the first few games in Los Angeles and they were down 15.

I want to say like 30 to eight or something like that in game three in Dallas. And the crowd was going crazy and it felt like, holy, it's over. Like Luca just ripped their heart and soul out, ripped the whole Paul George Kawhi era, which was not even era to shreds. And they fought and they recovered and they made the conference finals. The only time in history they've done that. And they're still here and they're still together. That series is,

That's the series in the first round. If that's what it is, I think that's the, I mean, every West series is going to be good, but given the players and the stakes in the history, if that's what it ends up being, Oh my God, Kevin Pelt, any closing thoughts?

Number one, also given that both of those teams have traded away as much as they did in season to load up for this year, and one of them would lose in the first round. Number two, I did look up the odds. Nazarit is now the favorite at ESPN bet to win the six-man award. So my takes on conventional wisdom were outdated there. Are you ready, Kevin Pelton, for Paige Beckers and the UConn Lady Huskies?

to play spoiler tonight and upset Iowa and get to the finals. I have a feeling. I'm a Connecticut resident. I grew up in Connecticut. This is my team. I don't follow them as closely as I used to, but I'm getting a little of that magic feeling right now.

It'd be only so much of an upset in my mind because that is what I picked in my bracket. The predictive metrics for UConn have been outstanding, even though they were a number three seed coming into the tournament. I was there in Portland, covered their run to the final for what they did defensively to Juju Watkins.

They looked terrific. When they had a scare from Syracuse at home in the second round, I was like, "Oh, maybe these predictive metrics are way off on them." And they looked very much like they belonged on Saturday and Monday in Portland.

But boy, one of my favorite quotes of all time was Gino Auriemma back in 2004 saying, explaining their run with, we have Diana Taurasi and you don't. And Caitlyn is that good. So Paige Beckers is extremely good. I wrote about the two of them yesterday. But Caitlyn could swing a game all by herself as she did against LSU. Diana Taurasi and Sue Bird are going to be on NBA Today with us in a couple hours. I have to go to that now. And as people know,

It's a struggle for me with Diana Taurasi. I can't. It's going to be hard for me to keep it. Tune into NBA Today to see me possibly go into Chris Farley show mode. Hey, Diana, remember when you were a junior and the whole team was freshmen and you guys won the national title because you scored like a million points every game? That was so awesome. Was that awesome? How awesome was that? Kevin Pelton, thank you, sir. Thanks as always for having me. Thanks for having me.

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